2026-06-27
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-27
Games: 15 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | June 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kai-Wei Teng Home: Framber Valdez
ERA: 4.03 ERA: 3.77
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 9.25 K/9: 8.2
BB/9: 4.03 BB/9: 3.29
FIP: 4.33 FIP: 3.52
IP: 60.3 IP: 89.7
xERA: 4.02 xERA: 3.79
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: DET (Framber Valdez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU DET Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.43 4.06 4.49
RA/Game 4.98 4.05 4.49
OPS 0.723 0.706 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.307 0.310
ERA 4.76 3.76 4.18
FIP 4.53 3.76 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.24 1.31
K/9 8.81 8.33 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.447 0.501 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.68 3.93 4.23
BP FIP 4.59 3.90 4.05
BP WHIP 1.39 1.34
BP K/9 8.60 8.66
BP Quality* 52.1 45.9 46.1
BP IP 307.7 304.7
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Nate Pearson (48 pitches yesterday)
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Enmanuel De Jesus (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0373 (Temp: 1.0075 | Wind: 1.0296)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 4.1 - DET 4.5
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.1 - DET 4.5
Win Probability: HOU 46.2% - DET 53.8%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +116 / DET -116
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.5: 47.9%
Under 8.5: 52.1%
HOU +1.5: 63.1%
DET -1.5: 37.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 2.2 - DET 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.2 - DET 2.3
F5 Win Prob: HOU 47.9% - DET 52.1% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +109 / DET -109
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML +117 +116 +0.2%
DET ML -141 -116 -4.8%
HOU +1.5 -193 -171 -2.8%
DET -1.5 +158 +171 -1.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -0.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | June 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Gerrit Cole Home: Jake Bennett
ERA: 3.62 ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 8.07 K/9: 7.43
BB/9: 2.51 BB/9: 1.69
FIP: 4.15 FIP: 2.5
IP: 32.3 IP: 26.7
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Jake Bennett)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY BOS Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.99 3.99 4.49
RA/Game 3.69 3.98 4.49
OPS 0.760 0.699 0.718
wOBA 0.326 0.303 0.310
ERA 3.32 3.77 4.18
FIP 3.49 3.75 4.04
WHIP 1.19 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.80 8.63 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.634 0.501 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.27 3.86 4.23
BP FIP 3.51 3.87 4.05
BP WHIP 1.24 1.31
BP K/9 8.51 8.67
BP Quality* 42.6 45.1 46.1
BP IP 275.0 235.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryan Yarbrough (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yerry De los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Danny Coulombe (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0531 (Temp: 1.0012 | Wind: 1.0518)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 5.0 - BOS 4.2
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.0 - BOS 4.2
Win Probability: NYY 57.7% - BOS 42.3%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -136 / BOS +136
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.0: 53.3%
Under 8.0: 37.7%
NYY -1.5: 42.0%
BOS +1.5: 58.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.7 - BOS 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.7 - BOS 2.3
F5 Win Prob: NYY 56.4% - BOS 43.6% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -129 / BOS +129
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -123 -136 +2.5%
BOS ML +102 +136 -7.2%
NYY -1.5 +138 +138 -0.0%
BOS +1.5 -167 -138 -4.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +0.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -14.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | June 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cal Quantrill Home: Dylan Cease
ERA: 5.97 ERA: 3.83
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 6.48 K/9: 12.31
BB/9: 2.69 BB/9: 3.88
FIP: 4.96 FIP: 2.96
IP: 31.3 IP: 78.7
xERA: 5.81 xERA: 3.46
xwOBA: 0.366 xwOBA: 0.29
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Dylan Cease)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX TOR Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.02 4.11 4.49
RA/Game 4.17 4.46 4.49
OPS 0.710 0.702 0.718
wOBA 0.308 0.302 0.310
ERA 3.98 4.14 4.18
FIP 3.96 3.95 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.32 1.31
K/9 8.63 8.88 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.462 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.97 3.66 4.23
BP FIP 4.14 3.56 4.05
BP WHIP 1.28 1.30
BP K/9 7.47 8.90
BP Quality* 51.3 44.5 46.1
BP IP 288.0 273.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Jacob Latz (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Adam Macko (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Spencer Miles (35 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9965 (Temp: 0.9998 | Wind: 0.9968)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 3.4 - TOR 5.2
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.4 - TOR 5.1
Win Probability: TEX 32.7% - TOR 67.3%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +206 / TOR -206
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.0: 47.5%
Under 8.0: 43.1%
TEX +1.5: 49.4%
TOR -1.5: 50.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 1.8 - TOR 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.8 - TOR 3.0
F5 Win Prob: TEX 29.6% - TOR 70.4% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +238 / TOR -238
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML +158 +206 -6.1%
TOR ML -193 -206 +1.4%
TEX +1.5 -136 +103 -8.3%
TOR -1.5 +113 -103 +3.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -4.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -9.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | June 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chase Burns Home: Jared Jones
ERA: 3.47 ERA: 5.75
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.52
K/9: 12.55 K/9: 9.3
BB/9: 3.2 BB/9: 3.54
FIP: 2.89 FIP: 4.77
IP: 85.7 IP: 20.3
xERA: 3.48 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Chase Burns)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN PIT Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.21 5.04 4.49
RA/Game 4.81 4.73 4.49
OPS 0.697 0.748 0.718
wOBA 0.302 0.324 0.310
ERA 4.48 4.10 4.18
FIP 4.78 3.64 4.04
WHIP 1.44 1.29 1.31
K/9 8.06 9.22 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.439 0.529 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.80 4.33 4.23
BP FIP 4.91 3.93 4.05
BP WHIP 1.50 1.38
BP K/9 8.44 9.32
BP Quality* 56.5 47.7 46.1
BP IP 311.3 232.7
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 22%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), calm
Weather Factor: 0.9968 (Temp: 1.0027 | Wind: 0.9942)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 4.4 - PIT 4.8
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.4 - PIT 4.8
Win Probability: CIN 46.1% - PIT 53.9%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +117 / PIT -117
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.0: 53.6%
Under 8.0: 37.5%
CIN -1.5: 31.1%
PIT +1.5: 68.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 2.6 - PIT 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.6 - PIT 2.1
F5 Win Prob: CIN 57.1% - PIT 42.9% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN -133 / PIT +133
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML -118 +117 -8.1%
PIT ML -102 -117 +3.5%
CIN -1.5 +141 +221 -10.3%
PIT +1.5 -171 -221 +5.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +1.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -14.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
Regular Season | June 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Alan Rangel Home: Christian Scott
ERA: 2.25 ERA: 3.1
WHIP: 1.0 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 10.13 K/9: 10.4
BB/9: 0.0 BB/9: 4.2
FIP: 2.48 FIP: 3.47
IP: 8.0 IP: 40.7
xERA: 5.77 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.365 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Alan Rangel)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI NYM Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.40 4.01 4.49
RA/Game 4.34 4.60 4.49
OPS 0.703 0.672 0.718
wOBA 0.303 0.290 0.310
ERA 4.05 4.14 4.18
FIP 3.55 3.72 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.28 1.31
K/9 9.61 9.21 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.438 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.84 3.08 4.23
BP FIP 3.20 3.45 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.15
BP K/9 10.03 9.45
BP Quality* 44.3 45.3 46.1
BP IP 279.0 213.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Austin Warren (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Devin Williams (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 38%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9897 (Temp: 1.0026 | Wind: 0.9872)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 3.6 - NYM 3.6
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.6 - NYM 3.6
Win Probability: PHI 49.6% - NYM 50.4%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +101 / NYM -101
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 9.0: 25.5%
Under 9.0: 66.0%
PHI +1.5: 68.2%
NYM -1.5: 31.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 1.9 - NYM 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 1.8 - NYM 1.9
F5 Win Prob: PHI 48.6% - NYM 51.4% (Tie: 19.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +106 / NYM -106
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML +109 +101 +1.8%
NYM ML -132 -101 -6.5%
PHI +1.5 -191 -214 +2.5%
NYM -1.5 +157 +214 -7.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -26.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +13.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 9.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00853
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | June 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael Wacha Home: Davis Martin
ERA: 3.69 ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 6.7 K/9: 7.58
BB/9: 2.46 BB/9: 2.74
FIP: 3.63 FIP: 3.75
IP: 101.0 IP: 87.7
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 5.13
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.347
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC CWS Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.23 4.83 4.49
RA/Game 5.07 4.60 4.49
OPS 0.710 0.740 0.718
wOBA 0.306 0.317 0.310
ERA 4.87 4.29 4.18
FIP 4.54 4.15 4.04
WHIP 1.43 1.33 1.31
K/9 7.89 8.43 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.418 0.522 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.83 4.78 4.23
BP FIP 5.26 4.63 4.05
BP WHIP 1.62 1.37
BP K/9 8.02 8.05
BP Quality* 66.8 52.6 46.1
BP IP 299.7 233.7
Bullpen Edge: CWS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Mitch Spence (53 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Lucas Erceg (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Beck Way (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Tolbert (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0477 (Temp: 0.9983 | Wind: 1.0495)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 4.6 - CWS 5.8
Simulated Avg: KC 4.6 - CWS 5.7
Win Probability: KC 39.8% - CWS 60.2%
Fair Moneyline: KC +151 / CWS -151
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 8.0: 62.0%
Under 8.0: 29.8%
KC +1.5: 54.8%
CWS -1.5: 45.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.5 - CWS 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.5 - CWS 2.6
F5 Win Prob: KC 47.9% - CWS 52.1% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +109 / CWS -109
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +109 +151 -8.1%
CWS ML -131 -151 +3.5%
KC +1.5 -193 -121 -11.1%
CWS -1.5 +158 +121 +6.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +9.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -22.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 62.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.7%
Fair ML: -163 | Kelly: 5.07%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00854
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | June 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jose Cabrera Home: Cole Sulser
ERA: 0.0 ERA: 5.4
WHIP: 0.6 WHIP: 1.55
K/9: 5.4 K/9: 9.38
BB/9: 0.0 BB/9: 3.41
FIP: 1.9 FIP: 3.79
IP: 5.0 IP: 31.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 2.8
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.262
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Jose Cabrera)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI TB Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.28 4.52 4.49
RA/Game 4.59 4.29 4.49
OPS 0.695 0.725 0.718
wOBA 0.300 0.313 0.310
ERA 4.31 3.84 4.18
FIP 4.31 4.04 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.21 1.31
K/9 7.01 7.97 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.524 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.86 4.25 4.23
BP FIP 3.70 4.24 4.05
BP WHIP 1.19 1.29
BP K/9 7.79 7.93
BP Quality* 42.2 52.6 46.1
BP IP 249.7 288.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Craig Kimbrel (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 4.1 - TB 3.8
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.0 - TB 3.8
Win Probability: ARI 52.1% - TB 47.9%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -109 / TB +109
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 8.5: 41.3%
Under 8.5: 58.7%
ARI +1.5: 69.4%
TB -1.5: 30.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 2.1 - TB 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.1 - TB 2.0
F5 Win Prob: ARI 51.7% - TB 48.3% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -107 / TB +107
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +119 -109 +6.4%
TB ML -144 +109 -11.1%
ARI +1.5 -171 -227 +6.3%
TB -1.5 +141 +227 -10.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -11.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +6.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | June 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Foster Griffin Home: Brandon Young
ERA: 3.15 ERA: 5.15
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.44
K/9: 8.77 K/9: 7.07
BB/9: 2.27 BB/9: 3.4
FIP: 4.18 FIP: 4.84
IP: 91.3 IP: 67.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Foster Griffin)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH BAL Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 5.29 4.64 4.49
RA/Game 5.27 4.92 4.49
OPS 0.739 0.722 0.718
wOBA 0.316 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.74 4.39 4.18
FIP 4.62 4.13 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.37 1.31
K/9 7.86 8.06 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.502 0.473 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.52 4.45 4.23
BP FIP 4.89 4.12 4.05
BP WHIP 1.52 1.31
BP K/9 7.98 9.00
BP Quality* 57.3 51.2 46.1
BP IP 262.7 299.0
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brad Lord (59 pitches yesterday)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Ryan Helsley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 30%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9929 (Temp: 1.0041 | Wind: 0.9889)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 5.9 - BAL 5.0
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.9 - BAL 5.0
Win Probability: WSH 57.4% - BAL 42.6%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -135 / BAL +135
Avg Total Runs: 10.9
Over 9.0: 58.2%
Under 9.0: 33.9%
WSH -1.5: 43.3%
BAL +1.5: 56.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 3.3 - BAL 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 3.3 - BAL 2.4
F5 Win Prob: WSH 63.5% - BAL 36.5% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -174 / BAL +174
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML -103 -135 +6.6%
BAL ML -117 +135 -11.3%
WSH -1.5 +161 +131 +5.0%
BAL +1.5 -196 -131 -9.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +5.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -18.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | June 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Logan Gilbert Home: Slade Cecconi
ERA: 3.37 ERA: 4.38
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 10.88 K/9: 7.25
BB/9: 2.13 BB/9: 2.5
FIP: 3.36 FIP: 4.45
IP: 93.0 IP: 84.3
xERA: 3.09 xERA: 4.99
xwOBA: 0.275 xwOBA: 0.343
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Logan Gilbert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA CLE Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.02 3.91 4.49
RA/Game 3.95 4.04 4.49
OPS 0.695 0.675 0.718
wOBA 0.303 0.294 0.310
ERA 3.68 3.78 4.18
FIP 3.37 3.87 4.04
WHIP 1.18 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.90 9.35 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.508 0.486 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.38 3.91 4.23
BP FIP 3.34 3.64 4.05
BP WHIP 1.31 1.34
BP K/9 8.96 10.37
BP Quality* 42.7 45.7 46.1
BP IP 234.0 267.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0215 (Temp: 0.9980 | Wind: 1.0236)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 4.1 - CLE 3.3
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.2 - CLE 3.3
Win Probability: SEA 58.8% - CLE 41.2%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -143 / CLE +143
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 7.5: 46.7%
Under 7.5: 53.3%
SEA -1.5: 40.9%
CLE +1.5: 59.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.4 - CLE 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.4 - CLE 1.7
F5 Win Prob: SEA 63.3% - CLE 36.7% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -173 / CLE +173
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -149 -143 -1.0%
CLE ML +123 +143 -3.7%
SEA -1.5 +118 +145 -5.0%
CLE +1.5 -142 -145 +0.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -5.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +0.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | June 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael Lorenzen Home: Mike Paredes
ERA: 5.77 ERA: 4.05
WHIP: 1.56 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 7.9 K/9: 4.95
BB/9: 2.75 BB/9: 4.05
FIP: 4.53 FIP: 4.65
IP: 76.0 IP: 20.0
xERA: 4.61 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL MIN Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.60 4.87 4.49
RA/Game 5.71 5.20 4.49
OPS 0.736 0.733 0.718
wOBA 0.318 0.317 0.310
ERA 5.51 4.85 4.18
FIP 4.63 4.17 4.04
WHIP 1.52 1.41 1.31
K/9 7.29 8.28 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.402 0.469 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.22 5.47 4.23
BP FIP 4.38 4.48 4.05
BP WHIP 1.53 1.57
BP K/9 7.69 8.28
BP Quality* 55.6 57.2 46.1
BP IP 324.3 343.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9872 (Temp: 1.0114 | Wind: 0.9760)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 5.2 - MIN 5.8
Simulated Avg: COL 5.2 - MIN 5.9
Win Probability: COL 43.9% - MIN 56.1%
Fair Moneyline: COL +128 / MIN -128
Avg Total Runs: 11.0
Over 9.5: 59.3%
Under 9.5: 40.7%
COL +1.5: 58.0%
MIN -1.5: 42.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.7 - MIN 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.7 - MIN 3.2
F5 Win Prob: COL 43.8% - MIN 56.2% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +129 / MIN -129
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +119 +128 -1.8%
MIN ML -144 -128 -2.9%
COL +1.5 -171 -138 -5.1%
MIN -1.5 +141 +138 +0.5%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +6.9%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -11.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
[PITCHER MISMATCH] PITCHER MISMATCH: David Peterson (stats from NYM, scheduled for CHC)
[PITCHER MISMATCH] All edge signals suppressed — verify pitcher assignment before acting.
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | June 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: David Peterson Home: Kyle Harrison
ERA: 4.65 ERA: 3.42
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 8.08 K/9: 10.11
BB/9: 3.58 BB/9: 3.02
FIP: 3.42 FIP: 3.31
IP: 68.0 IP: 72.0
xERA: 4.61 xERA: 4.16
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC MIL Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.89 5.23 4.49
RA/Game 4.49 3.62 4.49
OPS 0.738 0.732 0.718
wOBA 0.320 0.315 0.310
ERA 4.30 3.36 4.18
FIP 4.61 3.39 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.18 1.31
K/9 7.97 9.88 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.539 0.662 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 3.71 4.23
BP FIP 4.88 3.67 4.05
BP WHIP 1.35 1.32
BP K/9 8.03 9.12
BP Quality* 59.8 42.4 46.1
BP IP 278.0 271.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Ethan Roberts (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jayden Murray (46 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hoby Milner (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0137 (Temp: 0.9958 | Wind: 1.0180)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 4.3 - MIL 6.0
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.3 - MIL 6.0
Win Probability: CHC 35.4% - MIL 64.6%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +183 / MIL -183
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 8.0: 61.7%
Under 8.0: 30.2%
CHC +1.5: 49.6%
MIL -1.5: 50.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.4 - MIL 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.4 - MIL 2.9
F5 Win Prob: CHC 41.2% - MIL 58.8% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +142 / MIL -142
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML +135 +183 -7.2%
MIL ML -163 -183 +2.7%
CHC +1.5 -162 +102 -12.2%
MIL -1.5 +134 -102 +7.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +9.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -22.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | June 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryan Gusto Home: Andre Pallante
ERA: 5.71 ERA: 4.57
WHIP: 1.49 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 8.52 K/9: 6.5
BB/9: 3.23 BB/9: 3.13
FIP: 4.37 FIP: 4.26
IP: 18.0 IP: 82.7
xERA: 4.58 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA STL Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.30 4.54 4.49
RA/Game 4.22 4.61 4.49
OPS 0.712 0.721 0.718
wOBA 0.308 0.311 0.310
ERA 3.99 4.29 4.18
FIP 3.76 4.19 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.35 1.31
K/9 8.71 7.53 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.509 0.494 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.02 4.52 4.23
BP FIP 3.50 4.28 4.05
BP WHIP 1.23 1.40
BP K/9 9.67 7.91
BP Quality* 43.4 50.3 46.1
BP IP 237.3 297.0
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0085 (Temp: 1.0162 | Wind: 0.9924)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 4.5 - STL 4.8
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.5 - STL 4.8
Win Probability: MIA 46.2% - STL 53.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +117 / STL -117
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.5: 54.2%
Under 8.5: 45.8%
MIA +1.5: 62.1%
STL -1.5: 37.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.5 - STL 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.5 - STL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: MIA 44.1% - STL 55.9% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +127 / STL -127
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +119 +117 +0.5%
STL ML -143 -117 -5.0%
MIA +1.5 -174 -164 -1.4%
STL -1.5 +143 +164 -3.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +1.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -6.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | June 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Home: Randy Vásquez
ERA: 2.55 ERA: 3.98
WHIP: 0.94 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 9.63 K/9: 5.93
BB/9: 2.5 BB/9: 3.24
FIP: 2.99 FIP: 4.54
IP: 91.7 IP: 77.7
xERA: 2.74 xERA: 5.37
xwOBA: 0.259 xwOBA: 0.354
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Yoshinobu Yamamoto)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD SD Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 5.17 3.95 4.49
RA/Game 3.49 3.94 4.49
OPS 0.781 0.661 0.718
wOBA 0.334 0.287 0.310
ERA 3.45 3.82 4.18
FIP 3.62 3.82 4.04
WHIP 1.11 1.29 1.31
K/9 8.98 8.40 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.673 0.501 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.95 2.96 4.23
BP FIP 3.53 3.07 4.05
BP WHIP 1.26 1.13
BP K/9 9.83 9.95
BP Quality* 43.4 38.3 46.1
BP IP 260.0 246.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jonathan Hernández (30 pitches yesterday)
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9947 (Temp: 0.9947 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 4.8 - SD 3.0
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.8 - SD 3.0
Win Probability: LAD 68.8% - SD 31.2%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -221 / SD +221
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 8.0: 40.6%
Under 8.0: 49.8%
LAD -1.5: 51.9%
SD +1.5: 48.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 3.0 - SD 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.0 - SD 1.4
F5 Win Prob: LAD 76.7% - SD 23.3% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -330 / SD +330
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -205 -221 +1.6%
SD ML +168 +221 -6.1%
LAD -1.5 -114 -108 -1.4%
SD +1.5 -105 +108 -3.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -11.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -2.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | June 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryce Elder Home: Logan Webb
ERA: 4.57 ERA: 3.27
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 7.53 K/9: 8.93
BB/9: 2.86 BB/9: 2.06
FIP: 4.09 FIP: 2.64
IP: 94.7 IP: 83.3
xERA: 4.73 xERA: 3.58
xwOBA: 0.335 xwOBA: 0.295
Pitcher Edge: SF (Logan Webb)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL SF Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.85 4.06 4.49
RA/Game 3.67 4.75 4.49
OPS 0.728 0.727 0.718
wOBA 0.313 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.39 4.40 4.18
FIP 3.84 4.08 4.04
WHIP 1.21 1.38 1.31
K/9 8.69 8.01 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.624 0.429 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.65 4.46 4.23
BP FIP 3.35 4.34 4.05
BP WHIP 1.08 1.47
BP K/9 8.96 7.71
BP Quality* 39.8 58.6 46.1
BP IP 234.0 276.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hurston Waldrep (55 pitches yesterday)
SF: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Matt Gage (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Houser (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ryan Walker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Miller (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 18 mph (gusts 32 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), strong crosswind (18 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9690 (Temp: 0.9868 | Wind: 0.9819)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.2 - SF 3.7
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.2 - SF 3.7
Win Probability: ATL 54.6% - SF 45.4%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -120 / SF +120
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.0: 41.6%
Under 8.0: 48.6%
ATL +1.5: 71.7%
SF -1.5: 28.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 1.8 - SF 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 1.8 - SF 2.2
F5 Win Prob: ATL 42.4% - SF 57.6% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +136 / SF -136
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML +109 -120 +6.8%
SF ML -132 +120 -11.5%
ATL +1.5 -193 -254 +5.9%
SF -1.5 +158 +254 -10.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -10.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -3.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | June 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jack Perkins Home: Reid Detmers
ERA: 4.43 ERA: 3.95
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 8.9 K/9: 10.69
BB/9: 4.07 BB/9: 3.14
FIP: 3.86 FIP: 2.88
IP: 46.0 IP: 94.0
xERA: 3.64 xERA: 3.61
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Reid Detmers)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH LAA Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.68 4.54 4.49
RA/Game 5.27 5.05 4.49
OPS 0.743 0.717 0.718
wOBA 0.318 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.92 4.66 4.18
FIP 4.63 4.22 4.04
WHIP 1.44 1.41 1.31
K/9 8.52 8.88 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.446 0.452 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.42 4.67 4.23
BP FIP 4.61 4.50 4.05
BP WHIP 1.55 1.46
BP K/9 9.48 9.17
BP Quality* 60.1 53.7 46.1
BP IP 292.3 308.3
Bullpen Edge: LAA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Sterner (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brent Suter (52 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9750 (Temp: 0.9963 | Wind: 0.9786)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 4.3 - LAA 5.0
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.3 - LAA 5.0
Win Probability: ATH 43.8% - LAA 56.2%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +128 / LAA -128
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.5: 54.0%
Under 8.5: 46.0%
ATH -1.5: 29.1%
LAA +1.5: 70.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 2.1 - LAA 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.1 - LAA 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ATH 44.9% - LAA 55.1% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +123 / LAA -123
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML -106 +128 -7.7%
LAA ML -114 -128 +3.0%
ATH -1.5 +153 +244 -10.5%
LAA +1.5 -186 -244 +5.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +1.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -6.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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