2026-06-28
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-28
Games: 15 | Plays: 4
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | June 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zack Littell Home: Kyle Bradish
ERA: 4.31 ERA: 3.04
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 6.03 K/9: 11.52
BB/9: 1.92 BB/9: 3.47
FIP: 5.26 FIP: 3.09
IP: 75.0 IP: 89.0
xERA: 4.36 xERA: 3.09
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.275
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Kyle Bradish)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH BAL Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 5.27 4.62 4.49
RA/Game 5.24 4.90 4.49
OPS 0.741 0.720 0.719
wOBA 0.317 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.70 4.35 4.18
FIP 4.58 4.11 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.38 1.31
K/9 7.89 8.12 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.503 0.473 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.74 4.38 4.24
BP FIP 5.02 4.08 4.05
BP WHIP 1.55 1.31
BP K/9 8.35 9.03
BP Quality* 58.8 49.3 46.2
BP IP 293.0 304.0
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Keegan Akin (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ryan Helsley (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 18%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), calm
Weather Factor: 0.9981 (Temp: 1.0029 | Wind: 0.9953)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 4.6 - BAL 5.7
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.6 - BAL 5.7
Win Probability: WSH 40.4% - BAL 59.6%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +148 / BAL -148
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.0: 53.4%
Under 9.0: 38.1%
WSH +1.5: 55.2%
BAL -1.5: 44.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.2 - BAL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.2 - BAL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: WSH 37.2% - BAL 62.8% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH +169 / BAL -169
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +159 +148 +1.8%
BAL ML -194 -148 -6.4%
WSH +1.5 -131 -123 -1.5%
BAL -1.5 +108 +123 -3.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +1.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -14.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | June 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brady Singer Home: Mitch Keller
ERA: 4.36 ERA: 4.51
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 8.06 K/9: 7.37
BB/9: 3.14 BB/9: 2.9
FIP: 4.49 FIP: 3.87
IP: 73.0 IP: 88.3
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 4.45
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Mitch Keller)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN PIT Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.27 5.06 4.49
RA/Game 4.84 4.78 4.49
OPS 0.700 0.749 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.324 0.310
ERA 4.51 4.15 4.18
FIP 4.77 3.66 4.04
WHIP 1.45 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.10 9.22 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.443 0.526 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.81 4.44 4.24
BP FIP 4.95 3.97 4.05
BP WHIP 1.50 1.39
BP K/9 8.42 9.34
BP Quality* 56.8 54.3 46.2
BP IP 314.3 237.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Caleb Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Evan Sisk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Isaac Mattson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 20%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0186 (Temp: 1.0034 | Wind: 1.0151)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 4.5 - PIT 5.8
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.5 - PIT 5.8
Win Probability: CIN 38.6% - PIT 61.4%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +159 / PIT -159
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.0: 53.8%
Under 9.0: 38.0%
CIN +1.5: 53.3%
PIT -1.5: 46.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 2.4 - PIT 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.4 - PIT 3.0
F5 Win Prob: CIN 40.9% - PIT 59.1% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +145 / PIT -145
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +113 +159 -8.4%
PIT ML -136 -159 +3.8%
CIN +1.5 -185 -114 -11.6%
PIT -1.5 +152 +114 +7.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +1.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -14.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (Run Line) [+152]
Model: 46.7% | Market: 39.7% | Edge: 7.0%
Fair ML: +114 | Kelly: 2.91%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00855
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | June 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kumar Rocker Home: Shane Bieber
ERA: 5.15 ERA: 3.75
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 7.86 K/9: 8.16
BB/9: 3.38 BB/9: 1.52
FIP: 4.4 FIP: 4.6
IP: 74.0 IP: 3.7
xERA: 5.73 xERA: 4.48
xwOBA: 0.364 xwOBA: 0.327
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX TOR Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.06 4.11 4.49
RA/Game 4.17 4.49 4.49
OPS 0.712 0.703 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.302 0.310
ERA 3.98 4.17 4.18
FIP 3.96 3.95 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.32 1.31
K/9 8.66 8.93 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.488 0.459 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.97 3.62 4.24
BP FIP 4.13 3.53 4.05
BP WHIP 1.28 1.30
BP K/9 7.58 8.90
BP Quality* 51.2 41.2 46.2
BP IP 297.0 276.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0127 (Temp: 1.0091 | Wind: 1.0035)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 3.8 - TOR 5.0
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.8 - TOR 5.0
Win Probability: TEX 38.4% - TOR 61.6%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +161 / TOR -161
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 49.2%
Under 8.5: 50.8%
TEX +1.5: 55.0%
TOR -1.5: 45.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 2.2 - TOR 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.2 - TOR 2.8
F5 Win Prob: TEX 40.3% - TOR 59.7% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +148 / TOR -148
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML +113 +161 -8.6%
TOR ML -136 -161 +4.0%
TEX +1.5 -192 -122 -10.7%
TOR -1.5 +157 +122 +6.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -3.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -1.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | June 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Hunter Brown Home: Jack Flaherty
ERA: 2.31 ERA: 4.94
WHIP: 1.05 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 10.35 K/9: 10.59
BB/9: 3.04 BB/9: 3.88
FIP: 2.94 FIP: 3.78
IP: 19.3 IP: 65.7
xERA: 3.14 xERA: 3.99
xwOBA: 0.277 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Hunter Brown)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU DET Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.47 4.08 4.49
RA/Game 4.99 4.10 4.49
OPS 0.725 0.708 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.77 3.80 4.18
FIP 4.54 3.77 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.77 8.29 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.450 0.499 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.63 3.98 4.24
BP FIP 4.59 3.89 4.05
BP WHIP 1.38 1.35
BP K/9 8.57 8.66
BP Quality* 51.8 44.6 46.2
BP IP 313.0 307.7
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0466 (Temp: 1.0159 | Wind: 1.0303)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 4.5 - DET 4.3
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.5 - DET 4.3
Win Probability: HOU 51.4% - DET 48.6%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -106 / DET +106
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.0: 48.9%
Under 8.0: 41.6%
HOU -1.5: 35.4%
DET +1.5: 64.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 2.5 - DET 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.5 - DET 2.1
F5 Win Prob: HOU 56.9% - DET 43.1% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -132 / DET +132
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML -120 -106 -3.2%
DET ML +100 +106 -1.4%
HOU -1.5 +137 +182 -6.8%
DET +1.5 -167 -182 +2.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -3.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -10.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | June 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Emerson Hancock Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 4.34 ERA: 3.41
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 7.33 K/9: 9.77
BB/9: 2.63 BB/9: 3.74
FIP: 4.37 FIP: 4.06
IP: 85.0 IP: 96.7
xERA: 5.51 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.358 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Gavin Williams)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA CLE Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.01 3.92 4.49
RA/Game 3.95 4.02 4.49
OPS 0.694 0.673 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.294 0.310
ERA 3.68 3.77 4.18
FIP 3.35 3.86 4.04
WHIP 1.18 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.90 9.33 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.488 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.37 3.96 4.24
BP FIP 3.33 3.67 4.05
BP WHIP 1.31 1.34
BP K/9 8.96 10.39
BP Quality* 42.6 44.5 46.2
BP IP 235.0 270.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0029 (Temp: 1.0126 | Wind: 0.9904)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 3.7 - CLE 4.1
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.7 - CLE 4.1
Win Probability: SEA 45.3% - CLE 54.7%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +121 / CLE -121
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.5: 49.6%
Under 7.5: 50.4%
SEA -1.5: 28.4%
CLE +1.5: 71.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.0 - CLE 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.1 - CLE 2.4
F5 Win Prob: SEA 43.6% - CLE 56.4% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +129 / CLE -129
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -114 +121 -8.0%
CLE ML -105 -121 +3.5%
SEA -1.5 +151 +252 -11.4%
CLE +1.5 -184 -252 +6.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -2.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -2.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | June 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Merrill Kelly Home: Drew Rasmussen
ERA: 4.33 ERA: 2.7
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 0.96
K/9: 7.08 K/9: 8.34
BB/9: 2.85 BB/9: 1.94
FIP: 4.45 FIP: 3.37
IP: 75.7 IP: 86.0
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 3.48
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: TB (Drew Rasmussen)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI TB Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.26 4.51 4.49
RA/Game 4.59 4.26 4.49
OPS 0.694 0.727 0.719
wOBA 0.299 0.313 0.310
ERA 4.32 3.81 4.18
FIP 4.33 4.03 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.21 1.31
K/9 7.02 7.97 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.466 0.526 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.88 4.18 4.24
BP FIP 3.78 4.19 4.05
BP WHIP 1.20 1.28
BP K/9 7.79 7.93
BP Quality* 42.7 52.0 46.2
BP IP 257.7 297.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Grove (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 3.7 - TB 4.4
Simulated Avg: ARI 3.7 - TB 4.4
Win Probability: ARI 42.2% - TB 57.8%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +137 / TB -137
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.5: 52.7%
Under 7.5: 47.3%
ARI +1.5: 59.6%
TB -1.5: 40.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 1.7 - TB 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 1.7 - TB 2.5
F5 Win Prob: ARI 36.0% - TB 64.0% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +177 / TB -177
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +158 +137 +3.4%
TB ML -193 -137 -8.0%
ARI +1.5 -137 -148 +1.8%
TB -1.5 +114 +148 -6.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +0.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -5.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
Regular Season | June 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jesús Luzardo Home: Cionel Pérez
ERA: 3.96 ERA: 4.99
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 10.64 K/9: 6.75
BB/9: 2.85 BB/9: 3.52
FIP: 2.88 FIP: 4.89
IP: 92.3 IP: 30.7
xERA: 3.33 xERA: 3.93
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI NYM Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.37 4.04 4.49
RA/Game 4.36 4.57 4.49
OPS 0.700 0.673 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.291 0.310
ERA 4.08 4.11 4.18
FIP 3.54 3.72 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.28 1.31
K/9 9.62 9.22 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.501 0.444 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.06 3.03 4.24
BP FIP 3.20 3.42 4.05
BP WHIP 1.32 1.14
BP K/9 10.21 9.46
BP Quality* 43.9 41.9 46.2
BP IP 250.3 217.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Alan Rangel (70 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Devin Williams (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0076 (Temp: 1.0117 | Wind: 0.9960)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.3 - NYM 3.5
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.3 - NYM 3.5
Win Probability: PHI 58.5% - NYM 41.5%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -141 / NYM +141
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 8.5: 39.3%
Under 8.5: 60.7%
PHI -1.5: 40.9%
NYM +1.5: 59.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.6 - NYM 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.6 - NYM 1.8
F5 Win Prob: PHI 64.8% - NYM 35.2% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -184 / NYM +184
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -155 -141 -2.3%
NYM ML +128 +141 -2.3%
PHI -1.5 +110 +145 -6.7%
NYM +1.5 -132 -145 +2.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -13.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +8.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.7% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.3%
Fair ML: -155 | Kelly: 4.37%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00856
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | June 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryan Feltner Home: Connor Prielipp
ERA: 4.76 ERA: 5.17
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 7.21 K/9: 8.89
BB/9: 3.64 BB/9: 3.72
FIP: 4.48 FIP: 3.76
IP: 47.0 IP: 55.7
xERA: 3.31 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.284 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Connor Prielipp)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL MIN Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.64 4.87 4.49
RA/Game 5.70 5.24 4.49
OPS 0.741 0.733 0.719
wOBA 0.320 0.317 0.310
ERA 5.51 4.89 4.18
FIP 4.60 4.24 4.04
WHIP 1.51 1.41 1.31
K/9 7.25 8.23 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.407 0.467 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.26 5.33 4.24
BP FIP 4.36 4.40 4.05
BP WHIP 1.53 1.55
BP K/9 7.71 7.92
BP Quality* 54.1 57.8 46.2
BP IP 327.0 319.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Kody Funderburk (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Marco Raya (40 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 31 mph)
Precip Chance: 27%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9735 (Temp: 1.0047 | Wind: 0.9690)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 5.0 - MIN 5.2
Simulated Avg: COL 5.0 - MIN 5.2
Win Probability: COL 48.3% - MIN 51.7%
Fair Moneyline: COL +107 / MIN -107
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 9.0: 53.0%
Under 9.0: 38.7%
COL +1.5: 63.0%
MIN -1.5: 37.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.6 - MIN 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.6 - MIN 2.6
F5 Win Prob: COL 49.1% - MIN 50.9% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +104 / MIN -104
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +139 +107 +6.4%
MIN ML -168 -107 -11.0%
COL +1.5 -149 -170 +3.2%
MIN -1.5 +124 +170 -7.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +0.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -13.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | June 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Luinder Avila Home: Anthony Kay
ERA: 5.06 ERA: 4.24
WHIP: 1.62 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 8.23 K/9: 7.43
BB/9: 5.7 BB/9: 3.54
FIP: 4.39 FIP: 4.5
IP: 42.7 IP: 76.3
xERA: 2.09 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.226 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC CWS Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.19 4.79 4.49
RA/Game 5.04 4.56 4.49
OPS 0.707 0.739 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.84 4.25 4.18
FIP 4.51 4.13 4.04
WHIP 1.43 1.33 1.31
K/9 7.90 8.44 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.417 0.523 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.84 4.78 4.24
BP FIP 5.24 4.63 4.05
BP WHIP 1.63 1.37
BP K/9 8.03 8.07
BP Quality* 65.4 52.6 46.2
BP IP 300.3 235.3
Bullpen Edge: CWS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: John Schreiber (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Tolbert (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Sean Newcomb (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0277 (Temp: 1.0063 | Wind: 1.0212)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.6 - CWS 5.5
Simulated Avg: KC 4.6 - CWS 5.5
Win Probability: KC 41.4% - CWS 58.6%
Fair Moneyline: KC +142 / CWS -142
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 8.5: 61.0%
Under 8.5: 39.0%
KC +1.5: 56.4%
CWS -1.5: 43.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.5 - CWS 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.5 - CWS 2.5
F5 Win Prob: KC 49.9% - CWS 50.1% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +101 / CWS -101
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +119 +142 -4.3%
CWS ML -143 -142 -0.2%
KC +1.5 -175 -129 -7.3%
CWS -1.5 +144 +129 +2.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +8.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -13.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.6%
Fair ML: -156 | Kelly: 4.53%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00857
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | June 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryan Rolison Home: Brandon Woodruff
ERA: 6.87 ERA: 3.16
WHIP: 1.75 WHIP: 0.91
K/9: 5.41 K/9: 10.99
BB/9: 4.24 BB/9: 1.91
FIP: 6.64 FIP: 3.03
IP: 29.7 IP: 36.0
xERA: 5.73 xERA: 2.22
xwOBA: 0.364 xwOBA: 0.233
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Brandon Woodruff)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC MIL Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.93 5.19 4.49
RA/Game 4.46 3.67 4.49
OPS 0.740 0.730 0.719
wOBA 0.321 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.27 3.42 4.18
FIP 4.60 3.43 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.19 1.31
K/9 7.93 9.90 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.546 0.653 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.41 3.74 4.24
BP FIP 4.85 3.72 4.05
BP WHIP 1.34 1.33
BP K/9 8.03 9.08
BP Quality* 54.9 44.3 46.2
BP IP 281.3 274.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ethan Roberts (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9966 (Temp: 1.0060 | Wind: 0.9906)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 3.7 - MIL 6.5
Simulated Avg: CHC 3.7 - MIL 6.5
Win Probability: CHC 26.9% - MIL 73.1%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +271 / MIL -271
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 8.0: 61.1%
Under 8.0: 30.8%
CHC +1.5: 40.9%
MIL -1.5: 59.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 1.8 - MIL 3.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 1.8 - MIL 3.7
F5 Win Prob: CHC 23.1% - MIL 76.9% (Tie: 13.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +333 / MIL -333
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML +135 +271 -15.6%
MIL ML -163 -271 +11.1%
CHC +1.5 -155 +144 -19.9%
MIL -1.5 +128 -144 +15.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +8.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -21.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.1% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.7%
Fair ML: -157 | Kelly: 4.56%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00858
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Milwaukee Brewers (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -163 | Edge: 11.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00859
[HMC] Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +128 | Edge: 15.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00860
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | June 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tyler Phillips Home: Kyle Leahy
ERA: 2.82 ERA: 3.57
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 6.25 K/9: 7.81
BB/9: 3.04 BB/9: 3.05
FIP: 4.07 FIP: 3.46
IP: 58.3 IP: 76.3
xERA: 3.66 xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: STL (Kyle Leahy)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA STL Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.31 4.50 4.49
RA/Game 4.18 4.61 4.49
OPS 0.714 0.719 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.310 0.310
ERA 3.96 4.30 4.18
FIP 3.74 4.16 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.35 1.31
K/9 8.72 7.51 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.514 0.489 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.96 4.48 4.24
BP FIP 3.46 4.27 4.05
BP WHIP 1.22 1.40
BP K/9 9.67 7.91
BP Quality* 43.0 50.2 46.2
BP IP 241.0 299.3
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Lake Bachar (31 pitches yesterday)
STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0053 (Temp: 1.0291 | Wind: 0.9769)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 4.1 - STL 4.1
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.2 - STL 4.1
Win Probability: MIA 50.3% - STL 49.7%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -101 / STL +101
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 9.0: 35.3%
Under 9.0: 55.5%
MIA +1.5: 67.3%
STL -1.5: 32.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.2 - STL 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.2 - STL 2.2
F5 Win Prob: MIA 50.1% - STL 49.9% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -101 / STL +101
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +105 -101 +1.5%
STL ML -126 +101 -6.1%
MIA +1.5 -191 -206 +1.7%
STL -1.5 +157 +206 -6.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -17.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +3.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | June 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Aaron Civale Home: Sam Aldegheri
ERA: 4.86 ERA: 5.47
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.5
K/9: 7.33 K/9: 5.84
BB/9: 2.84 BB/9: 4.38
FIP: 4.7 FIP: 5.37
IP: 62.7 IP: 24.7
xERA: 4.1 xERA: 7.3
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.402
Pitcher Edge: ATH (Aaron Civale)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH LAA Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.65 4.55 4.49
RA/Game 5.27 5.01 4.49
OPS 0.740 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.317 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.93 4.63 4.18
FIP 4.60 4.21 4.04
WHIP 1.44 1.41 1.31
K/9 8.53 8.93 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.443 0.456 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.45 4.62 4.24
BP FIP 4.58 4.48 4.05
BP WHIP 1.55 1.45
BP K/9 9.48 9.21
BP Quality* 60.1 51.8 46.2
BP IP 295.3 311.7
Bullpen Edge: LAA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Matt Krook (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Geoff Hartlieb (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Barnett (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Sterner (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9733 (Temp: 0.9996 | Wind: 0.9736)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 5.2 - LAA 5.3
Simulated Avg: ATH 5.2 - LAA 5.4
Win Probability: ATH 48.4% - LAA 51.6%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +106 / LAA -106
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 9.5: 55.7%
Under 9.5: 44.3%
ATH -1.5: 34.6%
LAA +1.5: 65.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 3.0 - LAA 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 3.0 - LAA 2.7
F5 Win Prob: ATH 53.5% - LAA 46.5% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH -115 / LAA +115
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML -122 +106 -6.5%
LAA ML +101 -106 +1.8%
ATH -1.5 +130 +189 -8.9%
LAA +1.5 -158 -189 +4.1%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +3.3%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -8.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | June 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Chris Sale Home: Robbie Ray
ERA: 2.4 ERA: 3.67
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 11.34 K/9: 8.76
BB/9: 2.27 BB/9: 3.9
FIP: 2.4 FIP: 4.24
IP: 84.0 IP: 87.7
xERA: 2.84 xERA: 3.71
xwOBA: 0.264 xwOBA: 0.3
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Chris Sale)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL SF Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.79 4.07 4.49
RA/Game 3.69 4.70 4.49
OPS 0.723 0.726 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.42 4.35 4.18
FIP 3.85 4.06 4.04
WHIP 1.21 1.37 1.31
K/9 8.69 8.00 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.617 0.435 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.65 4.42 4.24
BP FIP 3.35 4.33 4.05
BP WHIP 1.08 1.46
BP K/9 8.96 7.69
BP Quality* 36.8 53.9 46.2
BP IP 234.0 278.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Grant Holmes (47 pitches yesterday)
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Walker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Gage (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9799 (Temp: 1.0027 | Wind: 0.9773)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.5 - SF 2.7
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.5 - SF 2.6
Win Probability: ATL 70.0% - SF 29.9%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -234 / SF +234
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 7.5: 43.3%
Under 7.5: 56.7%
ATL -1.5: 52.0%
SF +1.5: 48.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.3 - SF 1.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.3 - SF 1.3
F5 Win Prob: ATL 70.4% - SF 29.6% (Tie: 19.2%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -238 / SF +238
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -163 -234 +8.1%
SF ML +135 +234 -12.6%
ATL -1.5 +108 -108 +3.9%
SF +1.5 -131 +108 -8.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -9.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +4.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | June 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Emmet Sheehan Home: Michael King
ERA: 3.82 ERA: 3.39
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 10.6 K/9: 8.55
BB/9: 2.68 BB/9: 3.3
FIP: 3.46 FIP: 4.1
IP: 67.7 IP: 92.0
xERA: 3.0 xERA: 4.24
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Emmet Sheehan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD SD Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 5.29 3.94 4.49
RA/Game 3.48 4.07 4.49
OPS 0.788 0.663 0.719
wOBA 0.337 0.287 0.310
ERA 3.45 3.91 4.18
FIP 3.63 3.87 4.04
WHIP 1.11 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.95 8.37 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.682 0.484 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.94 3.11 4.24
BP FIP 3.54 3.13 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.16
BP K/9 9.79 9.91
BP Quality* 45.0 39.4 46.2
BP IP 263.0 251.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
UNAVAIL: Jack Dreyer (B2B, 27 pitches)
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ron Marinaccio (45 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Randy Vásquez (79 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9750 (Temp: 0.9965 | Wind: 0.9784)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 4.4 - SD 3.3
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.4 - SD 3.3
Win Probability: LAD 62.0% - SD 38.0%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -163 / SD +163
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 8.0: 39.6%
Under 8.0: 50.7%
LAD -1.5: 44.1%
SD +1.5: 55.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.6 - SD 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.6 - SD 1.7
F5 Win Prob: LAD 66.0% - SD 34.0% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -195 / SD +195
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -142 -163 +3.3%
SD ML +118 +163 -7.9%
LAD -1.5 +119 +127 -1.6%
SD +1.5 -144 -127 -3.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -12.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -1.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | June 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Carlos Rodón Home: Sonny Gray
ERA: 3.23 ERA: 3.75
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 9.5 K/9: 9.12
BB/9: 3.69 BB/9: 2.08
FIP: 3.56 FIP: 3.46
IP: 41.3 IP: 76.3
xERA: 3.33 xERA: 3.88
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY BOS Lg Avg
Record 0-0 0-0
R/Game 4.94 3.99 4.49
RA/Game 3.70 3.94 4.49
OPS 0.756 0.700 0.719
wOBA 0.324 0.303 0.310
ERA 3.34 3.73 4.18
FIP 3.50 3.75 4.04
WHIP 1.19 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.81 8.59 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.630 0.506 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.24 3.81 4.24
BP FIP 3.49 3.85 4.05
BP WHIP 1.23 1.30
BP K/9 8.56 8.69
BP Quality* 43.8 46.3 46.2
BP IP 277.7 238.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Yarbrough (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yerry De los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0135 (Temp: 0.9978 | Wind: 1.0156)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 4.8 - BOS 3.8
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.8 - BOS 3.8
Win Probability: NYY 60.2% - BOS 39.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -151 / BOS +151
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.0: 47.5%
Under 8.0: 43.0%
NYY -1.5: 43.8%
BOS +1.5: 56.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.5 - BOS 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.5 - BOS 1.9
F5 Win Prob: NYY 61.0% - BOS 39.0% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -156 / BOS +156
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -103 -151 +9.5%
BOS ML -117 +151 -14.1%
NYY -1.5 +163 +128 +5.8%
BOS +1.5 -199 -128 -10.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -4.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -9.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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