2026-06-29
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-29
Games: 13 | Plays: 5
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | June 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sean Burke Home: Shane Baz
ERA: 3.71 ERA: 4.31
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 8.97 K/9: 7.76
BB/9: 3.09 BB/9: 3.35
FIP: 3.78 FIP: 3.74
IP: 87.3 IP: 94.0
xERA: 3.95 xERA: 4.54
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS BAL Lg Avg
Record 43-39 39-46
R/Game 4.78 4.61 4.48
RA/Game 4.56 4.92 4.48
OPS 0.738 0.718 0.718
wOBA 0.316 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.25 4.36 4.17
FIP 4.10 4.14 4.03
WHIP 1.33 1.37 1.31
K/9 8.43 8.10 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.521 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.69 4.37 4.23
BP FIP 4.56 4.12 4.05
BP WHIP 1.36 1.31
BP K/9 8.11 9.00
BP Quality* 53.4 52.4 46.1
BP IP 239.7 309.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jordan Hicks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Albert Suárez (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Helsley (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0155 (Temp: 1.0240 | Wind: 0.9917)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 5.1 - BAL 5.0
Simulated Avg: CWS 5.1 - BAL 4.9
Win Probability: CWS 51.1% - BAL 48.9%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -104 / BAL +104
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 9.5: 51.7%
Under 9.5: 48.3%
CWS +1.5: 66.1%
BAL -1.5: 33.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.7 - BAL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.7 - BAL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CWS 54.4% - BAL 45.6% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -119 / BAL +119
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +114 -104 +4.3%
BAL ML -137 +104 -8.9%
CWS +1.5 -179 -195 +1.9%
BAL -1.5 +148 +195 -6.4%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -0.7%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -4.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | June 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Braxton Ashcraft Home: Aaron Nola
ERA: 3.07 ERA: 5.58
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 9.96 K/9: 9.15
BB/9: 2.05 BB/9: 3.01
FIP: 2.64 FIP: 4.81
IP: 96.7 IP: 80.7
xERA: 2.88 xERA: 4.29
xwOBA: 0.267 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Braxton Ashcraft)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT PHI Lg Avg
Record 42-42 47-37
R/Game 5.11 4.38 4.48
RA/Game 4.77 4.36 4.48
OPS 0.755 0.701 0.718
wOBA 0.326 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.14 4.08 4.17
FIP 3.66 3.56 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.30 1.31
K/9 9.18 9.62 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.531 0.502 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.42 4.14 4.23
BP FIP 3.98 3.27 4.05
BP WHIP 1.39 1.34
BP K/9 9.34 10.27
BP Quality* 51.3 47.7 46.1
BP IP 238.0 252.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Carmen Mlodzinski (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Isaac Mattson (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Kyle Backhus (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9994 (Temp: 1.0209 | Wind: 0.9790)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 5.7 - PHI 3.9
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.7 - PHI 4.0
Win Probability: PIT 65.7% - PHI 34.3%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -191 / PHI +191
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.5: 57.0%
Under 8.5: 43.0%
PIT -1.5: 50.4%
PHI +1.5: 49.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 3.3 - PHI 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 3.3 - PHI 1.7
F5 Win Prob: PIT 75.0% - PHI 25.0% (Tie: 14.0%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -299 / PHI +299
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML -108 -191 +13.7%
PHI ML -112 +191 -18.5%
PIT -1.5 +153 -102 +10.9%
PHI +1.5 -186 +102 -15.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +4.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -9.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -108 | Edge: 13.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00861
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +153 | Edge: 10.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00862
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | June 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Casey Mize Home: Ryan Weathers
ERA: 2.95 ERA: 3.95
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 9.87
BB/9: 2.17 BB/9: 2.49
FIP: 2.72 FIP: 4.14
IP: 58.0 IP: 86.7
xERA: 3.16 xERA: 4.5
xwOBA: 0.279 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: DET (Casey Mize)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET NYY Lg Avg
Record 35-49 48-35
R/Game 4.10 4.93 4.48
RA/Game 4.13 3.71 4.48
OPS 0.710 0.749 0.718
wOBA 0.308 0.322 0.310
ERA 3.79 3.32 4.17
FIP 3.80 3.49 4.03
WHIP 1.25 1.19 1.31
K/9 8.33 8.80 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.496 0.627 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.03 3.26 4.23
BP FIP 4.00 3.47 4.05
BP WHIP 1.35 1.23
BP K/9 8.64 8.49
BP Quality* 46.8 42.3 46.1
BP IP 312.7 282.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jacob Waguespack (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: David Bednar (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0079 (Temp: 1.0115 | Wind: 0.9964)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 3.9 - NYY 4.2
Simulated Avg: DET 3.9 - NYY 4.2
Win Probability: DET 46.7% - NYY 53.3%
Fair Moneyline: DET +114 / NYY -114
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.0: 43.9%
Under 8.0: 46.5%
DET +1.5: 64.2%
NYY -1.5: 35.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.3 - NYY 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.3 - NYY 2.0
F5 Win Prob: DET 56.4% - NYY 43.6% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -129 / NYY +129
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +114 +114 -0.0%
NYY ML -138 -114 -4.7%
DET +1.5 -191 -179 -1.4%
NYY -1.5 +156 +179 -3.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -8.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | June 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sean Manaea Home: Trey Yesavage
ERA: 4.87 ERA: 3.56
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 9.42 K/9: 8.6
BB/9: 3.14 BB/9: 4.45
FIP: 3.41 FIP: 3.74
IP: 57.3 IP: 60.7
xERA: 4.03 xERA: 2.93
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.269
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Sean Manaea)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM TOR Lg Avg
Record 35-49 39-45
R/Game 4.04 4.08 4.48
RA/Game 4.57 4.48 4.48
OPS 0.675 0.701 0.718
wOBA 0.292 0.301 0.310
ERA 4.12 4.16 4.17
FIP 3.71 3.95 4.03
WHIP 1.28 1.33 1.31
K/9 9.22 8.94 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.443 0.458 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.01 3.60 4.23
BP FIP 3.40 3.56 4.05
BP WHIP 1.14 1.31
BP K/9 9.50 8.94
BP Quality* 41.7 45.9 46.1
BP IP 218.0 285.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tobias Myers (59 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Kodai Senga (80 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adam Macko (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0175 (Temp: 1.0010 | Wind: 1.0165)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 3.6 - TOR 4.0
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.6 - TOR 4.0
Win Probability: NYM 45.4% - TOR 54.6%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +120 / TOR -120
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 9.0: 28.9%
Under 9.0: 62.3%
NYM +1.5: 63.7%
TOR -1.5: 36.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 1.9 - TOR 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 1.9 - TOR 2.2
F5 Win Prob: NYM 42.6% - TOR 57.4% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +135 / TOR -135
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +105 +120 -3.4%
TOR ML -126 -120 -1.2%
NYM +1.5 -193 -175 -2.2%
TOR -1.5 +158 +175 -2.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -23.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +9.9%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 62.3% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.9%
Fair ML: -165 | Kelly: 5.19%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00863
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | June 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Miles Mikolas Home: Ranger Suarez
ERA: 5.24 ERA: 2.83
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 5.12 K/9: 9.15
BB/9: 1.98 BB/9: 2.72
FIP: 5.31 FIP: 2.6
IP: 77.3 IP: 82.7
xERA: 4.75 xERA: 3.23
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.282
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH BOS Lg Avg
Record 43-42 36-46
R/Game 5.28 4.00 4.48
RA/Game 5.22 3.94 4.48
OPS 0.741 0.697 0.718
wOBA 0.317 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.69 3.70 4.17
FIP 4.60 3.72 4.03
WHIP 1.39 1.24 1.31
K/9 7.86 8.62 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.505 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.77 3.81 4.23
BP FIP 5.05 3.83 4.05
BP WHIP 1.55 1.29
BP K/9 8.37 8.70
BP Quality* 60.5 46.1 46.1
BP IP 294.7 241.0
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
UNAVAIL: PJ Poulin (B2B, 25 pitches)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Slaten (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0187 (Temp: 0.9966 | Wind: 1.0221)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 4.5 - BOS 5.5
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.5 - BOS 5.5
Win Probability: WSH 41.4% - BOS 58.6%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +141 / BOS -141
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 8.5: 59.8%
Under 8.5: 40.2%
WSH +1.5: 56.5%
BOS -1.5: 43.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.1 - BOS 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.1 - BOS 2.9
F5 Win Prob: WSH 37.4% - BOS 62.6% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH +167 / BOS -167
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +144 +141 +0.4%
BOS ML -175 -141 -5.1%
WSH +1.5 -148 -130 -3.2%
BOS -1.5 +123 +130 -1.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +7.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -12.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.5%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.92%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00864
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | June 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tyler Alexander Home: Parker Messick
ERA: 2.62 ERA: 2.67
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.05
K/9: 7.08 K/9: 9.64
BB/9: 2.62 BB/9: 2.77
FIP: 3.16 FIP: 3.12
IP: 34.3 IP: 94.3
xERA: 3.02 xERA: 3.23
xwOBA: 0.273 xwOBA: 0.282
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX CLE Lg Avg
Record 42-42 44-40
R/Game 4.05 3.94 4.48
RA/Game 4.14 4.04 4.48
OPS 0.711 0.676 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.295 0.310
ERA 3.96 3.76 4.17
FIP 3.95 3.85 4.03
WHIP 1.24 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.65 9.33 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.489 0.489 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.99 3.94 4.23
BP FIP 4.14 3.65 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.35
BP K/9 7.59 10.33
BP Quality* 48.2 50.4 46.1
BP IP 300.0 274.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Shawn Armstrong (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0452 (Temp: 1.0157 | Wind: 1.0290)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 3.5 - CLE 3.5
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.5 - CLE 3.5
Win Probability: TEX 50.8% - CLE 49.2%
Fair Moneyline: TEX -103 / CLE +103
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 7.5: 42.2%
Under 7.5: 57.8%
TEX +1.5: 69.6%
CLE -1.5: 30.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 1.6 - CLE 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.6 - CLE 1.6
F5 Win Prob: TEX 51.2% - CLE 48.8% (Tie: 22.0%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -105 / CLE +105
F5 Avg Total: 3.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML +124 -103 +6.1%
CLE ML -149 +103 -10.6%
TEX +1.5 -175 -229 +6.0%
CLE -1.5 +144 +229 -10.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -10.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +5.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | June 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Lodolo Home: Robert Gasser
ERA: 5.59 ERA: 4.5
WHIP: 1.52 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 7.33 K/9: 9.3
BB/9: 3.47 BB/9: 3.6
FIP: 4.86 FIP: 4.83
IP: 46.7 IP: 30.0
xERA: 6.06 xERA: 3.13
xwOBA: 0.374 xwOBA: 0.278
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN MIL Lg Avg
Record 39-43 50-31
R/Game 4.27 5.16 4.48
RA/Game 4.89 3.68 4.48
OPS 0.699 0.730 0.718
wOBA 0.303 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.57 3.41 4.17
FIP 4.83 3.42 4.03
WHIP 1.46 1.18 1.31
K/9 8.15 9.91 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.438 0.650 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.87 3.77 4.23
BP FIP 5.06 3.71 4.05
BP WHIP 1.52 1.33
BP K/9 8.46 9.13
BP Quality* 62.1 50.4 46.1
BP IP 318.0 279.0
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Pierce Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Caleb Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Joel Kuhnel (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9925 (Temp: 1.0274 | Wind: 0.9660)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 4.3 - MIL 6.8
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.3 - MIL 6.9
Win Probability: CIN 29.1% - MIL 70.9%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +243 / MIL -243
Avg Total Runs: 11.1
Over 9.0: 59.8%
Under 9.0: 32.4%
CIN +1.5: 42.3%
MIL -1.5: 57.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.3 - MIL 3.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.3 - MIL 3.7
F5 Win Prob: CIN 30.8% - MIL 69.2% (Tie: 12.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +225 / MIL -225
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +124 +243 -15.5%
MIL ML -150 -243 +10.9%
CIN +1.5 -167 +137 -20.3%
MIL -1.5 +137 -137 +15.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +7.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -20.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.5%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.92%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00865
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Milwaukee Brewers (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -150 | Edge: 10.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00866
[HMC] Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +137 | Edge: 15.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00867
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | June 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Shota Imanaga
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD CHC Lg Avg
Record 43-39 46-38
R/Game 3.91 4.92 4.48
RA/Game 4.07 4.44 4.48
OPS 0.662 0.736 0.718
wOBA 0.287 0.320 0.310
ERA 3.89 4.24 4.17
FIP 3.85 4.59 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.38 7.97 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.482 0.546 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.15 4.30 4.23
BP FIP 3.12 4.79 4.05
BP WHIP 1.15 1.34
BP K/9 9.87 8.07
BP Quality* 40.9 55.7 46.1
BP IP 254.3 293.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tyler Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryse Wilson (61 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ethan Roberts (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9915 (Temp: 1.0224 | Wind: 0.9698)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 4.4 - CHC 4.9
Simulated Avg: SD 4.4 - CHC 4.9
Win Probability: SD 44.2% - CHC 55.8%
Fair Moneyline: SD +126 / CHC -126
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 11.0: 29.5%
Under 11.0: 62.8%
SD +1.5: 60.1%
CHC -1.5: 39.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.3 - CHC 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.3 - CHC 2.8
F5 Win Prob: SD 41.3% - CHC 58.7% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +142 / CHC -142
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +130 +126 +0.7%
CHC ML -157 -126 -5.3%
SD +1.5 -145 -151 +1.0%
CHC -1.5 +120 +151 -5.6%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -22.9%
U 11.0 -110 N/A +10.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 11.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00868
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | June 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zebby Matthews Home: Peter Lambert
ERA: 4.56 ERA: 3.28
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 7.11 K/9: 8.39
BB/9: 2.01 BB/9: 3.67
FIP: 4.82 FIP: 3.78
IP: 49.3 IP: 68.7
xERA: 4.09 xERA: 3.5
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.293
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Peter Lambert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN HOU Lg Avg
Record 40-45 42-44
R/Game 4.85 4.50 4.48
RA/Game 5.20 4.99 4.48
OPS 0.734 0.726 0.718
wOBA 0.317 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.86 4.74 4.17
FIP 4.19 4.56 4.03
WHIP 1.40 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.30 8.74 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.453 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.28 4.60 4.23
BP FIP 4.37 4.64 4.05
BP WHIP 1.54 1.39
BP K/9 7.96 8.55
BP Quality* 57.4 58.0 46.1
BP IP 322.3 317.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Anthony Banda (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Josh Hader (B2B, 29 pitches)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9929 (Temp: 1.0180 | Wind: 0.9753)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 4.8 - HOU 5.2
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.8 - HOU 5.2
Win Probability: MIN 46.3% - HOU 53.7%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +116 / HOU -116
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 9.0: 51.8%
Under 9.0: 39.5%
MIN +1.5: 61.1%
HOU -1.5: 38.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.3 - HOU 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.2 - HOU 2.7
F5 Win Prob: MIN 42.5% - HOU 57.5% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +135 / HOU -135
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +118 +116 +0.4%
HOU ML -142 -116 -5.0%
MIN +1.5 -186 -157 -3.9%
HOU -1.5 +153 +157 -0.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -0.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -12.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | June 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sandy Alcantara Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA COL Lg Avg
Record 44-40 33-51
R/Game 4.27 4.61 4.48
RA/Game 4.15 5.67 4.48
OPS 0.711 0.739 0.718
wOBA 0.308 0.318 0.310
ERA 3.94 5.47 4.17
FIP 3.74 4.62 4.03
WHIP 1.24 1.51 1.31
K/9 8.65 7.18 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.513 0.406 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.95 5.25 4.23
BP FIP 3.45 4.39 4.05
BP WHIP 1.21 1.53
BP K/9 9.68 7.69
BP Quality* 41.3 58.7 46.1
BP IP 241.7 329.0
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Seth Halvorsen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0073 (Temp: 1.0188 | Wind: 0.9887)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 5.4 - COL 5.0
Simulated Avg: MIA 5.4 - COL 5.0
Win Probability: MIA 53.5% - COL 46.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -115 / COL +115
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 11.5: 38.3%
Under 11.5: 61.7%
MIA -1.5: 39.3%
COL +1.5: 60.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.7 - COL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.7 - COL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: MIA 49.5% - COL 50.5% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +102 / COL -102
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML -144 -115 -5.5%
COL ML +119 +115 +0.9%
MIA -1.5 +108 +155 -8.8%
COL +1.5 -131 -155 +4.0%
O 11.5 -110 N/A -14.0%
U 11.5 -110 N/A +9.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 11.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.7% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.3%
Fair ML: -161 | Kelly: 4.87%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00869
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Athletics
Regular Season | June 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Eric Lauer Home: Gage Jump
ERA: 4.87 ERA: 2.04
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 0.96
K/9: 5.85 K/9: 8.92
BB/9: 3.34 BB/9: 2.55
FIP: 6.13 FIP: 1.97
IP: 64.7 IP: 35.3
xERA: 5.36 xERA: 2.95
xwOBA: 0.355 xwOBA: 0.27
Pitcher Edge: ATH (Gage Jump)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD ATH Lg Avg
Record 54-30 40-44
R/Game 5.27 4.61 4.48
RA/Game 3.46 5.25 4.48
OPS 0.784 0.736 0.718
wOBA 0.335 0.316 0.310
ERA 3.43 4.93 4.17
FIP 3.63 4.59 4.03
WHIP 1.11 1.43 1.31
K/9 8.96 8.50 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.683 0.441 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.91 5.40 4.23
BP FIP 3.50 4.54 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.54
BP K/9 9.81 9.47
BP Quality* 46.2 55.1 46.1
BP IP 267.0 298.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9929 (Temp: 1.0031 | Wind: 0.9898)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 4.3 - ATH 5.8
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.3 - ATH 5.7
Win Probability: LAD 37.2% - ATH 62.8%
Fair Moneyline: LAD +169 / ATH -169
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 10.5: 43.2%
Under 10.5: 56.8%
LAD -1.5: 24.1%
ATH +1.5: 75.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 1.7 - ATH 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 1.7 - ATH 3.5
F5 Win Prob: LAD 22.9% - ATH 77.1% (Tie: 13.2%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD +338 / ATH -338
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -114 +169 -16.1%
ATH ML -105 -169 +11.6%
LAD -1.5 +134 +316 -18.7%
ATH +1.5 -162 -316 +14.1%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -9.2%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +4.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Athletics (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -105 | Edge: 11.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00870
[HMC] Athletics +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -162 | Edge: 14.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00871
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | June 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryan Johnson Home: George Kirby
ERA: 8.84 ERA: 3.94
WHIP: 1.71 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 6.98 K/9: 7.88
BB/9: 4.19 BB/9: 2.16
FIP: 6.31 FIP: 3.29
IP: 19.3 IP: 96.0
xERA: 4.6 xERA: 3.76
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: SEA (George Kirby)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA SEA Lg Avg
Record 36-49 42-43
R/Game 4.54 4.02 4.48
RA/Game 4.96 3.98 4.48
OPS 0.716 0.695 0.718
wOBA 0.310 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.59 3.72 4.17
FIP 4.18 3.35 4.03
WHIP 1.40 1.19 1.31
K/9 8.93 8.89 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.459 0.505 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.56 3.53 4.23
BP FIP 4.45 3.36 4.05
BP WHIP 1.44 1.34
BP K/9 9.24 8.91
BP Quality* 54.4 43.5 46.1
BP IP 315.7 237.3
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9859 (Temp: 0.9947 | Wind: 0.9911)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 3.7 - SEA 5.2
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.7 - SEA 5.2
Win Probability: LAA 35.2% - SEA 64.8%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +184 / SEA -184
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 7.5: 59.8%
Under 7.5: 40.2%
LAA +1.5: 51.7%
SEA -1.5: 48.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.0 - SEA 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.0 - SEA 3.2
F5 Win Prob: LAA 32.3% - SEA 67.7% (Tie: 14.5%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +210 / SEA -210
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +170 +184 -1.8%
SEA ML -208 -184 -2.7%
LAA +1.5 -123 -107 -3.4%
SEA -1.5 +102 +107 -1.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +7.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -12.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: -148 | Kelly: 3.87%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00872
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | June 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tyler Mahle Home: Eduardo Rodriguez
ERA: 5.49 ERA: 2.27
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 8.81 K/9: 6.63
BB/9: 3.75 BB/9: 3.6
FIP: 4.69 FIP: 4.06
IP: 62.3 IP: 95.0
xERA: 4.35 xERA: 4.82
xwOBA: 0.324 xwOBA: 0.339
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Eduardo Rodriguez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF ARI Lg Avg
Record 35-48 41-42
R/Game 4.06 4.22 4.48
RA/Game 4.66 4.59 4.48
OPS 0.725 0.692 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.31 4.33 4.17
FIP 4.05 4.36 4.03
WHIP 1.36 1.30 1.31
K/9 7.94 7.01 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.437 0.461 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.44 3.85 4.23
BP FIP 4.32 3.76 4.05
BP WHIP 1.47 1.20
BP K/9 7.69 7.80
BP Quality* 50.9 42.5 46.1
BP IP 279.7 259.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 96°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (96°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0176 (Temp: 1.0368 | Wind: 0.9815)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 3.8 - ARI 5.0
Simulated Avg: SF 3.8 - ARI 5.0
Win Probability: SF 38.1% - ARI 61.9%
Fair Moneyline: SF +162 / ARI -162
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 9.0: 40.8%
Under 9.0: 50.3%
SF +1.5: 54.8%
ARI -1.5: 45.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 2.1 - ARI 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.1 - ARI 2.8
F5 Win Prob: SF 39.2% - ARI 60.8% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +155 / ARI -155
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +119 +162 -7.6%
ARI ML -144 -162 +2.9%
SF +1.5 -173 -121 -8.5%
ARI -1.5 +143 +121 +4.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -11.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -2.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================