2026-06-30
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-06-30
Games: 15 | Plays: 4
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | June 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Erick Fedde Home: Trey Gibson
ERA: 4.34 ERA: 5.64
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.65
K/9: 6.03 K/9: 7.42
BB/9: 3.62 BB/9: 5.64
FIP: 5.4 FIP: 5.48
IP: 74.7 IP: 30.3
xERA: 4.66 xERA: 5.61
xwOBA: 0.334 xwOBA: 0.362
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS BAL Lg Avg
Record 44-39 39-47
R/Game 4.82 4.58 4.49
RA/Game 4.53 4.95 4.48
OPS 0.739 0.715 0.718
wOBA 0.317 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.22 4.38 4.17
FIP 4.07 4.12 4.03
WHIP 1.32 1.38 1.31
K/9 8.49 8.10 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.528 0.464 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.68 4.46 4.24
BP FIP 4.56 4.10 4.06
BP WHIP 1.36 1.32
BP K/9 8.09 9.00
BP Quality* 53.4 49.7 46.3
BP IP 240.3 311.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Chris Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9976 (Temp: 1.0253 | Wind: 0.9730)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 5.9 - BAL 5.5
Simulated Avg: CWS 5.9 - BAL 5.5
Win Probability: CWS 53.0% - BAL 47.0%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -113 / BAL +113
Avg Total Runs: 11.5
Over 10.5: 54.6%
Under 10.5: 45.4%
CWS +1.5: 66.4%
BAL -1.5: 33.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 3.6 - BAL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 3.6 - BAL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: CWS 56.6% - BAL 43.4% (Tie: 12.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -130 / BAL +130
F5 Avg Total: 6.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +113 -113 +6.1%
BAL ML -136 +113 -10.7%
CWS +1.5 -163 -197 +4.4%
BAL -1.5 +135 +197 -8.9%
O 10.5 -110 N/A +2.2%
U 10.5 -110 N/A -7.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | June 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jacob deGrom Home: Tanner Bibee
ERA: 3.55 ERA: 3.78
WHIP: 1.03 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 10.76 K/9: 7.65
BB/9: 2.03 BB/9: 2.74
FIP: 3.58 FIP: 4.5
IP: 88.7 IP: 95.3
xERA: 3.5 xERA: 4.63
xwOBA: 0.293 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Jacob deGrom)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX CLE Lg Avg
Record 43-42 44-41
R/Game 4.07 3.93 4.49
RA/Game 4.13 4.06 4.48
OPS 0.712 0.676 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.294 0.310
ERA 3.95 3.77 4.17
FIP 3.95 3.82 4.03
WHIP 1.24 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.61 9.34 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.493 0.485 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 3.94 4.24
BP FIP 4.25 3.62 4.06
BP WHIP 1.26 1.36
BP K/9 7.61 10.41
BP Quality* 50.6 50.4 46.3
BP IP 269.7 276.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Chris Paddack (68 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Shawn Armstrong (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0211 (Temp: 1.0294 | Wind: 0.9919)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 4.2 - CLE 3.8
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.2 - CLE 3.8
Win Probability: TEX 54.3% - CLE 45.7%
Fair Moneyline: TEX -119 / CLE +119
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.0: 42.0%
Under 8.0: 48.2%
TEX -1.5: 37.1%
CLE +1.5: 62.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 2.3 - CLE 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.3 - CLE 1.9
F5 Win Prob: TEX 58.7% - CLE 41.3% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -142 / CLE +142
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML -120 -119 -0.2%
CLE ML +100 +119 -4.3%
TEX -1.5 +144 +169 -3.8%
CLE +1.5 -175 -169 -0.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -10.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -4.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | June 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bubba Chandler Home: Cristopher Sánchez
ERA: 4.42 ERA: 2.13
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 8.28 K/9: 10.39
BB/9: 5.22 BB/9: 1.72
FIP: 4.47 FIP: 2.31
IP: 79.3 IP: 110.0
xERA: 4.24 xERA: 3.0
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.272
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT PHI Lg Avg
Record 43-42 47-38
R/Game 5.18 4.41 4.49
RA/Game 4.80 4.44 4.48
OPS 0.757 0.704 0.718
wOBA 0.327 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.17 4.15 4.17
FIP 3.70 3.59 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.30 1.31
K/9 9.23 9.66 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.534 0.498 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.46 4.20 4.24
BP FIP 4.02 3.29 4.06
BP WHIP 1.40 1.34
BP K/9 9.37 10.38
BP Quality* 51.7 47.9 46.3
BP IP 240.0 255.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Evan Sisk (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Chase Shugart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seth Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Kyle Backhus (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9935 (Temp: 1.0238 | Wind: 0.9703)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 4.0 - PHI 5.0
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.0 - PHI 5.0
Win Probability: PIT 40.8% - PHI 59.2%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +145 / PHI -145
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.5: 51.7%
Under 8.5: 48.3%
PIT +1.5: 57.0%
PHI -1.5: 43.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 1.8 - PHI 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 1.8 - PHI 2.7
F5 Win Prob: PIT 33.9% - PHI 66.1% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +195 / PHI -195
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML +185 +145 +5.7%
PHI ML -227 -145 -10.2%
PIT +1.5 -113 -133 +4.0%
PHI -1.5 -106 +133 -8.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -0.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | June 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tarik Skubal Home: Cam Schlittler
ERA: 3.32 ERA: 1.62
WHIP: 0.99 WHIP: 0.92
K/9: 9.96 K/9: 10.62
BB/9: 1.21 BB/9: 1.8
FIP: 3.03 FIP: 2.12
IP: 59.7 IP: 100.0
xERA: 3.5 xERA: 2.71
xwOBA: 0.293 xwOBA: 0.259
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET NYY Lg Avg
Record 36-49 48-36
R/Game 4.13 4.90 4.49
RA/Game 4.12 3.75 4.48
OPS 0.709 0.746 0.718
wOBA 0.308 0.320 0.310
ERA 3.78 3.30 4.17
FIP 3.77 3.47 4.03
WHIP 1.24 1.19 1.31
K/9 8.39 8.80 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.501 0.620 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.09 3.17 4.24
BP FIP 4.02 3.43 4.06
BP WHIP 1.35 1.21
BP K/9 8.67 8.46
BP Quality* 50.0 43.2 46.3
BP IP 314.7 289.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Waguespack (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0151 (Temp: 1.0198 | Wind: 0.9954)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 2.9 - NYY 4.6
Simulated Avg: DET 2.9 - NYY 4.6
Win Probability: DET 31.1% - NYY 68.9%
Fair Moneyline: DET +222 / NYY -222
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.0: 45.9%
Under 7.0: 43.5%
DET +1.5: 49.3%
NYY -1.5: 50.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 1.2 - NYY 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 1.2 - NYY 2.2
F5 Win Prob: DET 29.3% - NYY 70.7% (Tie: 20.0%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +241 / NYY -241
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +104 +222 -17.9%
NYY ML -125 -222 +13.4%
DET +1.5 -207 +103 -18.2%
NYY -1.5 +169 -103 +13.6%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -6.5%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -8.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] New York Yankees (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -125 | Edge: 13.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00873
[HMC] New York Yankees -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +169 | Edge: 13.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00874
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | June 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nolan McLean Home: Kevin Gausman
ERA: 4.03 ERA: 4.36
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 10.68 K/9: 8.81
BB/9: 3.43 BB/9: 2.08
FIP: 3.32 FIP: 3.75
IP: 89.3 IP: 95.0
xERA: 3.43 xERA: 3.71
xwOBA: 0.29 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM TOR Lg Avg
Record 35-50 40-45
R/Game 4.00 4.06 4.49
RA/Game 4.54 4.44 4.48
OPS 0.673 0.699 0.718
wOBA 0.291 0.301 0.310
ERA 4.10 4.12 4.17
FIP 3.69 3.95 4.03
WHIP 1.28 1.32 1.31
K/9 9.22 8.90 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.442 0.460 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.98 3.57 4.24
BP FIP 3.39 3.56 4.06
BP WHIP 1.14 1.31
BP K/9 9.56 8.94
BP Quality* 38.6 47.3 46.3
BP IP 220.3 287.0
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Austin Warren (30 pitches yesterday)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9897 (Temp: 1.0153 | Wind: 0.9748)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 3.8 - TOR 3.5
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.8 - TOR 3.4
Win Probability: NYM 53.2% - TOR 46.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYM -114 / TOR +114
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 8.0: 33.9%
Under 8.0: 56.2%
NYM -1.5: 34.8%
TOR +1.5: 65.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.0 - TOR 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.0 - TOR 1.9
F5 Win Prob: NYM 52.8% - TOR 47.2% (Tie: 19.2%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -112 / TOR +112
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +101 -114 +3.4%
TOR ML -122 +114 -8.1%
NYM -1.5 +166 +187 -2.7%
TOR +1.5 -203 -187 -1.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -18.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +3.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | June 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cade Cavalli Home: Connelly Early
ERA: 4.0 ERA: 3.59
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 9.61 K/9: 9.03
BB/9: 3.13 BB/9: 3.29
FIP: 3.1 FIP: 4.41
IP: 83.3 IP: 87.7
xERA: 4.54 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Cade Cavalli)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH BOS Lg Avg
Record 43-43 37-46
R/Game 5.26 4.02 4.49
RA/Game 5.23 3.93 4.48
OPS 0.739 0.698 0.718
wOBA 0.316 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.71 3.69 4.17
FIP 4.61 3.71 4.03
WHIP 1.39 1.24 1.31
K/9 7.83 8.66 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.502 0.511 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.75 3.76 4.24
BP FIP 5.05 3.80 4.06
BP WHIP 1.55 1.29
BP K/9 8.37 8.74
BP Quality* 59.0 48.8 46.3
BP IP 295.7 244.0
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: PJ Poulin (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Slaten (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0031 (Temp: 1.0175 | Wind: 0.9858)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 5.5 - BOS 4.6
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.5 - BOS 4.6
Win Probability: WSH 58.3% - BOS 41.7%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -140 / BOS +140
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 9.0: 52.6%
Under 9.0: 38.8%
WSH +1.5: 72.1%
BOS -1.5: 27.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 3.0 - BOS 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 3.0 - BOS 2.2
F5 Win Prob: WSH 62.7% - BOS 37.3% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -168 / BOS +168
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +114 -140 +11.6%
BOS ML -137 +140 -16.1%
WSH +1.5 -178 -259 +8.1%
BOS -1.5 +147 +259 -12.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +0.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -13.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line) [-178]
Model: 72.1% | Market: 64.0% | Edge: 8.1%
Fair ML: -259 | Kelly: 5.64%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00875
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +114 | Edge: 11.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00876
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | June 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Matthew Liberatore Home: Martín Pérez
ERA: 5.56 ERA: 3.0
WHIP: 1.58 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 8.11 K/9: 7.5
BB/9: 3.36 BB/9: 3.38
FIP: 5.26 FIP: 3.82
IP: 77.7 IP: 72.0
xERA: 5.72 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.365 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Martín Pérez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL ATL Lg Avg
Record 43-38 49-33
R/Game 4.47 4.76 4.49
RA/Game 4.57 3.68 4.48
OPS 0.717 0.720 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.26 3.41 4.17
FIP 4.14 3.81 4.03
WHIP 1.35 1.21 1.31
K/9 7.53 8.74 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.490 0.615 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.42 2.67 4.24
BP FIP 4.22 3.35 4.06
BP WHIP 1.38 1.08
BP K/9 7.92 8.96
BP Quality* 48.1 35.4 46.3
BP IP 303.3 236.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 93°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (93°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0459 (Temp: 1.0313 | Wind: 1.0141)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 3.9 - ATL 6.2
Simulated Avg: STL 3.9 - ATL 6.2
Win Probability: STL 29.8% - ATL 70.2%
Fair Moneyline: STL +235 / ATL -235
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 9.0: 52.1%
Under 9.0: 39.5%
STL +1.5: 44.0%
ATL -1.5: 56.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.3 - ATL 3.8
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.3 - ATL 3.8
F5 Win Prob: STL 30.7% - ATL 69.3% (Tie: 12.8%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +226 / ATL -226
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +124 +235 -14.8%
ATL ML -149 -235 +10.3%
STL +1.5 -161 +127 -17.7%
ATL -1.5 +133 -127 +13.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -0.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -12.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Atlanta Braves (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -149 | Edge: 10.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00877
[HMC] Atlanta Braves -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +133 | Edge: 13.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00878
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | June 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Griffin Jax Home: Noah Cameron
ERA: 3.33 ERA: 4.5
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 8.83 K/9: 8.44
BB/9: 3.33 BB/9: 2.48
FIP: 4.41 FIP: 3.35
IP: 54.0 IP: 80.0
xERA: 5.29 xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: 0.353 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: KC (Noah Cameron)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB KC Lg Avg
Record 48-33 35-50
R/Game 4.52 4.20 4.49
RA/Game 4.22 5.02 4.48
OPS 0.730 0.707 0.718
wOBA 0.314 0.305 0.310
ERA 3.78 4.83 4.17
FIP 4.01 4.51 4.03
WHIP 1.20 1.43 1.31
K/9 7.98 7.88 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.531 0.419 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.17 5.75 4.24
BP FIP 4.20 5.22 4.06
BP WHIP 1.27 1.61
BP K/9 7.97 7.96
BP Quality* 46.0 58.8 46.3
BP IP 300.3 305.3
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 27 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), strong wind in (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9831 (Temp: 1.0300 | Wind: 0.9544)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.7 - KC 4.3
Simulated Avg: TB 4.7 - KC 4.3
Win Probability: TB 53.2% - KC 46.8%
Fair Moneyline: TB -114 / KC +114
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 10.0: 34.5%
Under 10.0: 57.2%
TB -1.5: 37.3%
KC +1.5: 62.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.3 - KC 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.3 - KC 2.5
F5 Win Prob: TB 47.8% - KC 52.2% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +109 / KC -109
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -122 -114 -1.7%
KC ML +101 +114 -3.0%
TB -1.5 +131 +168 -6.0%
KC +1.5 -159 -168 +1.3%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -17.9%
U 10.0 -110 N/A +4.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | June 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Rhett Lowder Home: Brandon Sproat
ERA: 4.81 ERA: 5.43
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 7.45 K/9: 9.43
BB/9: 4.5 BB/9: 4.13
FIP: 4.51 FIP: 4.81
IP: 58.0 IP: 69.7
xERA: 5.61 xERA: 4.82
xwOBA: 0.362 xwOBA: 0.339
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN MIL Lg Avg
Record 39-44 51-31
R/Game 4.25 5.16 4.49
RA/Game 4.89 3.67 4.48
OPS 0.699 0.732 0.718
wOBA 0.303 0.315 0.310
ERA 4.59 3.40 4.17
FIP 4.85 3.41 4.03
WHIP 1.46 1.18 1.31
K/9 8.14 9.91 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.436 0.651 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.96 3.75 4.24
BP FIP 5.13 3.68 4.06
BP WHIP 1.53 1.33
BP K/9 8.44 9.16
BP Quality* 59.8 48.7 46.3
BP IP 321.0 281.0
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Petty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joel Kuhnel (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 27 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9978 (Temp: 1.0297 | Wind: 0.9690)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 4.7 - MIL 6.4
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.7 - MIL 6.4
Win Probability: CIN 35.3% - MIL 64.7%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +183 / MIL -183
Avg Total Runs: 11.1
Over 9.0: 59.4%
Under 9.0: 32.6%
CIN +1.5: 49.1%
MIL -1.5: 50.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.8 - MIL 3.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.8 - MIL 3.4
F5 Win Prob: CIN 41.4% - MIL 58.6% (Tie: 13.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +142 / MIL -142
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +144 +183 -5.7%
MIL ML -175 -183 +1.0%
CIN +1.5 -143 +104 -9.7%
MIL -1.5 +119 -104 +5.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +7.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -19.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.4% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.0%
Fair ML: -146 | Kelly: 3.70%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00879
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | June 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: JP Sears Home: Matthew Boyd
ERA: 3.18 ERA: 5.02
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 7.94 K/9: 10.99
BB/9: 3.18 BB/9: 3.14
FIP: 4.68 FIP: 2.61
IP: 5.7 IP: 28.7
xERA: 5.26 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.352 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Matthew Boyd)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD CHC Lg Avg
Record 43-40 47-38
R/Game 3.89 4.89 4.49
RA/Game 4.06 4.41 4.48
OPS 0.663 0.736 0.718
wOBA 0.287 0.320 0.310
ERA 3.89 4.21 4.17
FIP 3.83 4.56 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.39 7.96 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.481 0.547 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.14 4.26 4.24
BP FIP 3.11 4.78 4.06
BP WHIP 1.16 1.34
BP K/9 9.87 8.09
BP Quality* 37.9 55.5 46.3
BP IP 258.0 296.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9954 (Temp: 1.0232 | Wind: 0.9728)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 4.5 - CHC 4.5
Simulated Avg: SD 4.5 - CHC 4.5
Win Probability: SD 49.7% - CHC 50.3%
Fair Moneyline: SD +101 / CHC -101
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 11.5: 26.5%
Under 11.5: 73.6%
SD +1.5: 66.0%
CHC -1.5: 34.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.4 - CHC 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.4 - CHC 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SD 47.8% - CHC 52.2% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +109 / CHC -109
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +129 +101 +6.1%
CHC ML -156 -101 -10.7%
SD +1.5 -148 -194 +6.4%
CHC -1.5 +123 +194 -10.9%
O 11.5 -110 N/A -25.9%
U 11.5 -110 N/A +21.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 11.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 21.2%
[HELD FOR REVIEW] high-edge total -> output/TOTALS_REVIEW_QUEUE.json
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | June 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Joe Ryan Home: Mike Burrows
ERA: 3.18 ERA: 5.48
WHIP: 1.03 WHIP: 1.5
K/9: 10.41 K/9: 7.28
BB/9: 1.83 BB/9: 3.27
FIP: 2.65 FIP: 5.47
IP: 93.3 IP: 85.3
xERA: 3.16 xERA: 4.45
xwOBA: 0.279 xwOBA: 0.327
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Joe Ryan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN HOU Lg Avg
Record 41-45 42-45
R/Game 4.85 4.49 4.49
RA/Game 5.19 4.99 4.48
OPS 0.734 0.725 0.718
wOBA 0.317 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.85 4.74 4.17
FIP 4.22 4.59 4.03
WHIP 1.40 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.30 8.73 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.469 0.452 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.33 4.58 4.24
BP FIP 4.46 4.61 4.06
BP WHIP 1.55 1.39
BP K/9 7.94 8.57
BP Quality* 56.6 56.3 46.3
BP IP 324.3 320.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Travis Adams (35 pitches yesterday)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Miguel Ullola (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (85°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9969 (Temp: 1.0192 | Wind: 0.9781)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 5.8 - HOU 4.2
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.8 - HOU 4.2
Win Probability: MIN 63.7% - HOU 36.3%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -176 / HOU +176
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 8.5: 59.9%
Under 8.5: 40.1%
MIN -1.5: 49.3%
HOU +1.5: 50.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 3.3 - HOU 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 3.3 - HOU 1.8
F5 Win Prob: MIN 72.6% - HOU 27.4% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -265 / HOU +265
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML -115 -176 +10.3%
HOU ML -105 +176 -15.0%
MIN -1.5 +141 +103 +7.8%
HOU +1.5 -171 -103 -12.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +7.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -12.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 2 (2 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.5%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.93%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00880
[STANDARD EDGE] Minnesota Twins -1.5 (Run Line) [+141]
Model: 49.3% | Market: 41.5% | Edge: 7.8%
Fair ML: +103 | Kelly: 3.32%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00881
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Minnesota Twins (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -115 | Edge: 10.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00882
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | June 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Eury Pérez Home: Tanner Gordon
ERA: 4.41 ERA: 6.37
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.56
K/9: 9.76 K/9: 8.92
BB/9: 3.74 BB/9: 2.04
FIP: 4.5 FIP: 4.01
IP: 67.3 IP: 35.3
xERA: 4.92 xERA: 4.82
xwOBA: 0.342 xwOBA: 0.339
Pitcher Edge: COL (Tanner Gordon)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA COL Lg Avg
Record 45-40 33-52
R/Game 4.34 4.64 4.49
RA/Game 4.19 5.72 4.48
OPS 0.716 0.741 0.718
wOBA 0.310 0.319 0.310
ERA 3.98 5.53 4.17
FIP 3.76 4.64 4.03
WHIP 1.24 1.51 1.31
K/9 8.60 7.17 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.516 0.405 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.97 5.32 4.24
BP FIP 3.48 4.42 4.06
BP WHIP 1.21 1.54
BP K/9 9.62 7.61
BP Quality* 41.5 57.7 46.3
BP IP 245.0 333.3
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Victor Vodnik (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Zach Agnos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 25 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), crosswind (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0188 (Temp: 1.0175 | Wind: 1.0012)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 6.0 - COL 5.7
Simulated Avg: MIA 6.0 - COL 5.7
Win Probability: MIA 52.5% - COL 47.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -111 / COL +111
Avg Total Runs: 11.7
Over 11.5: 48.2%
Under 11.5: 51.7%
MIA -1.5: 39.6%
COL +1.5: 60.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 3.3 - COL 3.4
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 3.3 - COL 3.4
F5 Win Prob: MIA 48.5% - COL 51.5% (Tie: 13.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +106 / COL -106
F5 Avg Total: 6.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML -136 -111 -5.1%
COL ML +113 +111 +0.5%
MIA -1.5 +108 +152 -8.5%
COL +1.5 -131 -152 +3.7%
O 11.5 -110 N/A -4.1%
U 11.5 -110 N/A -0.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Athletics
Regular Season | June 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Justin Wrobleski Home: Jeffrey Springs
ERA: 2.71 ERA: 5.52
WHIP: 1.01 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 5.53 K/9: 7.98
BB/9: 1.88 BB/9: 2.97
FIP: 3.55 FIP: 5.57
IP: 86.3 IP: 88.0
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Justin Wrobleski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD ATH Lg Avg
Record 55-30 40-45
R/Game 5.32 4.60 4.49
RA/Game 3.47 5.29 4.48
OPS 0.787 0.736 0.718
wOBA 0.337 0.316 0.310
ERA 3.44 4.97 4.17
FIP 3.63 4.61 4.03
WHIP 1.12 1.44 1.31
K/9 8.94 8.51 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.686 0.436 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.90 5.44 4.24
BP FIP 3.49 4.55 4.06
BP WHIP 1.27 1.54
BP K/9 9.87 9.49
BP Quality* 47.6 58.3 46.3
BP IP 270.0 302.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jonathan Hernández (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kyle Hurt (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Matt Krook (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kade Morris (51 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Justin Sterner (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9721 (Temp: 0.9904 | Wind: 0.9816)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 6.5 - ATH 4.4
Simulated Avg: LAD 6.5 - ATH 4.4
Win Probability: LAD 67.4% - ATH 32.6%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -207 / ATH +207
Avg Total Runs: 10.9
Over 11.0: 42.1%
Under 11.0: 50.0%
LAD -1.5: 54.0%
ATH +1.5: 46.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 3.6 - ATH 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.6 - ATH 2.2
F5 Win Prob: LAD 69.1% - ATH 30.9% (Tie: 13.0%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -224 / ATH +224
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -171 -207 +4.3%
ATH ML +141 +207 -8.9%
LAD -1.5 -111 -117 +1.4%
ATH +1.5 -108 +117 -5.9%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -10.3%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -2.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | June 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: José Soriano Home: Bryan Woo
ERA: 3.32 ERA: 4.26
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 9.66 K/9: 8.9
BB/9: 4.55 BB/9: 1.74
FIP: 4.11 FIP: 2.96
IP: 95.0 IP: 93.0
xERA: 4.42 xERA: 3.35
xwOBA: 0.326 xwOBA: 0.287
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryan Woo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA SEA Lg Avg
Record 36-50 43-43
R/Game 4.51 4.05 4.49
RA/Game 4.98 3.95 4.48
OPS 0.716 0.696 0.718
wOBA 0.310 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.58 3.70 4.17
FIP 4.21 3.35 4.03
WHIP 1.40 1.19 1.31
K/9 8.91 8.88 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.455 0.511 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.60 3.51 4.24
BP FIP 4.52 3.36 4.06
BP WHIP 1.44 1.34
BP K/9 9.24 8.91
BP Quality* 53.4 42.0 46.3
BP IP 318.7 238.3
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Mitch Farris (46 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9743 (Temp: 0.9888 | Wind: 0.9853)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 3.5 - SEA 3.9
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.5 - SEA 3.9
Win Probability: LAA 44.7% - SEA 55.3%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +124 / SEA -124
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.0: 46.1%
Under 7.0: 43.3%
LAA +1.5: 63.4%
SEA -1.5: 36.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 1.9 - SEA 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.9 - SEA 2.0
F5 Win Prob: LAA 47.4% - SEA 52.6% (Tie: 19.3%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +111 / SEA -111
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +158 +124 +5.9%
SEA ML -193 -124 -10.5%
LAA +1.5 -149 -173 +3.5%
SEA -1.5 +123 +173 -8.2%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -6.3%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -9.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | June 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Landen Roupp Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF ARI Lg Avg
Record 35-49 42-42
R/Game 4.06 4.23 4.49
RA/Game 4.67 4.58 4.48
OPS 0.725 0.694 0.718
wOBA 0.308 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.32 4.33 4.17
FIP 4.09 4.36 4.03
WHIP 1.36 1.30 1.31
K/9 7.89 6.96 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.437 0.463 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.42 3.92 4.24
BP FIP 4.38 3.80 4.06
BP WHIP 1.46 1.21
BP K/9 7.59 7.81
BP Quality* 52.6 44.5 46.3
BP IP 283.3 261.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: JT Brubaker (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 95°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (95°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0221 (Temp: 1.0350 | Wind: 0.9876)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 4.0 - ARI 4.2
Simulated Avg: SF 4.0 - ARI 4.1
Win Probability: SF 48.5% - ARI 51.5%
Fair Moneyline: SF +106 / ARI -106
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 9.0: 34.8%
Under 9.0: 56.3%
SF -1.5: 32.1%
ARI +1.5: 67.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 2.3 - ARI 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.3 - ARI 1.9
F5 Win Prob: SF 56.9% - ARI 43.1% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SF -132 / ARI +132
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML -108 +106 -3.4%
ARI ML -112 -106 -1.4%
SF -1.5 +150 +212 -7.9%
ARI +1.5 -182 -212 +3.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -17.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +3.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================