2026-07-01
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-01
Games: 14 | Plays: 4
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | July 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Noah Schultz Home: Dean Kremer
ERA: 5.82 ERA: 4.09
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 0.91
K/9: 7.68 K/9: 13.09
BB/9: 5.12 BB/9: 1.64
FIP: 4.44 FIP: 5.46
IP: 38.7 IP: 11.0
xERA: 5.52 xERA: 4.28
xwOBA: 0.359 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Noah Schultz)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS BAL Lg Avg
Record 45-39 39-48
R/Game 4.87 4.56 4.50
RA/Game 4.51 5.00 4.49
OPS 0.742 0.714 0.719
wOBA 0.318 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.21 4.43 4.18
FIP 4.05 4.13 4.04
WHIP 1.32 1.38 1.31
K/9 8.46 8.15 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.535 0.458 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.60 4.27 4.25
BP FIP 4.52 4.03 4.07
BP WHIP 1.35 1.29
BP K/9 8.07 9.05
BP Quality* 52.9 53.0 46.3
BP IP 244.3 314.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Schweitzer (46 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Chris Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Josh Walker (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Albert Suárez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0316 (Temp: 1.0373 | Wind: 0.9945)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 5.4 - BAL 5.9
Simulated Avg: CWS 5.4 - BAL 5.9
Win Probability: CWS 45.7% - BAL 54.3%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +119 / BAL -119
Avg Total Runs: 11.2
Over 10.5: 52.5%
Under 10.5: 47.5%
CWS +1.5: 59.5%
BAL -1.5: 40.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.9 - BAL 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.9 - BAL 3.3
F5 Win Prob: CWS 44.1% - BAL 55.9% (Tie: 13.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +127 / BAL -127
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +119 +119 +0.0%
BAL ML -143 -119 -4.5%
CWS +1.5 -168 -147 -3.2%
BAL -1.5 +139 +147 -1.4%
O 10.5 -110 N/A +0.1%
U 10.5 -110 N/A -4.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | July 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: MacKenzie Gore Home: Joey Cantillo
ERA: 4.05 ERA: 3.87
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 9.59 K/9: 8.9
BB/9: 3.76 BB/9: 4.08
FIP: 3.36 FIP: 4.3
IP: 91.0 IP: 86.0
xERA: 3.97 xERA: 4.11
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: TEX (MacKenzie Gore)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX CLE Lg Avg
Record 44-42 44-42
R/Game 4.07 3.91 4.50
RA/Game 4.10 4.06 4.49
OPS 0.711 0.673 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.293 0.310
ERA 3.93 3.77 4.18
FIP 3.92 3.83 4.04
WHIP 1.23 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.65 9.28 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.496 0.483 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.11 3.94 4.25
BP FIP 4.22 3.64 4.07
BP WHIP 1.25 1.35
BP K/9 7.65 10.43
BP Quality* 47.3 45.9 46.3
BP IP 271.7 278.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Shawn Armstrong (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), crosswind (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0393 (Temp: 1.0291 | Wind: 1.0099)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 4.0 - CLE 3.8
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.0 - CLE 3.8
Win Probability: TEX 51.6% - CLE 48.4%
Fair Moneyline: TEX -107 / CLE +107
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.0: 39.9%
Under 8.0: 50.3%
TEX -1.5: 34.2%
CLE +1.5: 65.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 2.2 - CLE 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.2 - CLE 2.0
F5 Win Prob: TEX 54.4% - CLE 45.6% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -119 / CLE +119
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML +101 -107 +1.8%
CLE ML -122 +107 -6.5%
TEX -1.5 +168 +192 -3.1%
CLE +1.5 -205 -192 -1.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -12.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -2.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | July 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andrew Alvarez Home: Payton Tolle
ERA: 3.44 ERA: 2.78
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 1.02
K/9: 10.31 K/9: 8.71
BB/9: 3.68 BB/9: 2.52
FIP: 2.75 FIP: 3.1
IP: 36.7 IP: 71.3
xERA: 4.37 xERA: 2.92
xwOBA: 0.324 xwOBA: 0.268
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Andrew Alvarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH BOS Lg Avg
Record 44-43 37-47
R/Game 5.29 3.99 4.50
RA/Game 5.18 3.98 4.49
OPS 0.741 0.694 0.719
wOBA 0.317 0.301 0.310
ERA 4.66 3.74 4.18
FIP 4.56 3.72 4.04
WHIP 1.38 1.25 1.31
K/9 7.89 8.66 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.509 0.501 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.71 3.98 4.25
BP FIP 5.04 3.85 4.07
BP WHIP 1.55 1.31
BP K/9 8.31 8.67
BP Quality* 58.8 49.9 46.3
BP IP 297.7 249.0
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Zak Kent (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tommy Kahnle (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Danny Coulombe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Slaten (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 95°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 13%
Conditions: Hot (95°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0096 (Temp: 1.0348 | Wind: 0.9756)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 4.7 - BOS 4.4
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.7 - BOS 4.4
Win Probability: WSH 53.6% - BOS 46.4%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -115 / BOS +115
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 9.5: 43.6%
Under 9.5: 56.4%
WSH +1.5: 69.1%
BOS -1.5: 30.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.2 - BOS 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.2 - BOS 2.0
F5 Win Prob: WSH 53.9% - BOS 46.1% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -117 / BOS +117
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +123 -115 +8.7%
BOS ML -149 +115 -13.4%
WSH +1.5 -163 -224 +7.2%
BOS -1.5 +135 +224 -11.7%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -8.8%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +4.1%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line) [-163]
Model: 69.1% | Market: 62.0% | Edge: 7.1%
Fair ML: -224 | Kelly: 4.70%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00883
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | July 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Troy Melton Home: Will Warren
ERA: 2.39 ERA: 3.75
WHIP: 0.85 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 5.97 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 2.15 BB/9: 3.11
FIP: 4.9 FIP: 3.53
IP: 37.7 IP: 84.0
xERA: 3.36 xERA: 4.11
xwOBA: 0.287 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Will Warren)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET NYY Lg Avg
Record 37-49 48-37
R/Game 4.19 4.88 4.50
RA/Game 4.10 3.81 4.49
OPS 0.713 0.743 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.319 0.310
ERA 3.76 3.36 4.18
FIP 3.76 3.54 4.04
WHIP 1.23 1.19 1.31
K/9 8.42 8.79 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.509 0.611 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.08 3.18 4.25
BP FIP 4.01 3.45 4.07
BP WHIP 1.35 1.21
BP K/9 8.64 8.41
BP Quality* 48.5 43.3 46.3
BP IP 317.7 294.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Waguespack (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Ryan Yarbrough (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0170 (Temp: 1.0379 | Wind: 0.9798)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 3.8 - NYY 4.8
Simulated Avg: DET 3.8 - NYY 4.8
Win Probability: DET 39.5% - NYY 60.5%
Fair Moneyline: DET +153 / NYY -153
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 9.5: 39.5%
Under 9.5: 60.5%
DET +1.5: 56.4%
NYY -1.5: 43.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.1 - NYY 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.1 - NYY 2.5
F5 Win Prob: DET 43.7% - NYY 56.3% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +129 / NYY -129
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +119 +153 -6.1%
NYY ML -143 -153 +1.6%
DET +1.5 -168 -129 -6.3%
NYY -1.5 +139 +129 +1.8%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -12.9%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +8.1%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 9.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.1%
Fair ML: -153 | Kelly: 4.26%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00884
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | July 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Walker Buehler Home: Colin Rea
ERA: 3.81 ERA: 4.8
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 8.08 K/9: 6.72
BB/9: 3.0 BB/9: 3.31
FIP: 3.31 FIP: 4.56
IP: 78.0 IP: 84.3
xERA: 4.34 xERA: 5.34
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.354
Pitcher Edge: SD (Walker Buehler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD CHC Lg Avg
Record 43-41 48-38
R/Game 3.93 4.94 4.50
RA/Game 4.12 4.44 4.49
OPS 0.669 0.743 0.719
wOBA 0.289 0.322 0.310
ERA 3.94 4.25 4.18
FIP 3.92 4.61 4.04
WHIP 1.32 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.36 7.91 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.478 0.549 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.34 4.24 4.25
BP FIP 3.38 4.76 4.07
BP WHIP 1.20 1.34
BP K/9 9.81 8.08
BP Quality* 43.1 53.9 46.3
BP IP 264.3 297.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Ron Marinaccio (50 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Javier Assad (53 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tyler Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 96°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (96°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0042 (Temp: 1.0365 | Wind: 0.9689)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 4.7 - CHC 4.8
Simulated Avg: SD 4.7 - CHC 4.8
Win Probability: SD 48.7% - CHC 51.3%
Fair Moneyline: SD +105 / CHC -105
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 12.0: 24.6%
Under 12.0: 68.7%
SD +1.5: 64.0%
CHC -1.5: 36.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 2.6 - CHC 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.6 - CHC 2.6
F5 Win Prob: SD 50.3% - CHC 49.7% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: SD -101 / CHC +101
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML +105 +105 -0.0%
CHC ML -126 -105 -4.5%
SD +1.5 -175 -177 +0.3%
CHC -1.5 +144 +177 -4.9%
O 12.0 -110 N/A -27.8%
U 12.0 -110 N/A +16.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 12.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 16.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00885
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | July 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Freddy Peralta Home: Braydon Fisher
ERA: 4.53 ERA: 3.48
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 8.67 K/9: 8.59
BB/9: 3.45 BB/9: 4.09
FIP: 4.03 FIP: 4.33
IP: 91.3 IP: 44.0
xERA: 3.75 xERA: 3.94
xwOBA: 0.302 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM TOR Lg Avg
Record 36-50 40-46
R/Game 3.99 4.01 4.50
RA/Game 4.49 4.42 4.49
OPS 0.673 0.696 0.719
wOBA 0.291 0.300 0.310
ERA 4.06 4.10 4.18
FIP 3.67 3.96 4.04
WHIP 1.27 1.32 1.31
K/9 9.21 8.92 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.446 0.456 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.94 3.55 4.25
BP FIP 3.36 3.55 4.07
BP WHIP 1.13 1.31
BP K/9 9.51 8.97
BP Quality* 36.7 47.2 46.3
BP IP 223.3 289.0
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adam Macko (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0111 (Temp: 1.0324 | Wind: 0.9794)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 3.9 - TOR 3.7
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.9 - TOR 3.7
Win Probability: NYM 51.4% - TOR 48.6%
Fair Moneyline: NYM -106 / TOR +106
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 8.5: 38.6%
Under 8.5: 61.4%
NYM -1.5: 33.8%
TOR +1.5: 66.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.1 - TOR 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.1 - TOR 2.2
F5 Win Prob: NYM 48.2% - TOR 51.7% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +107 / TOR -107
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML -115 -106 -2.1%
TOR ML -105 +106 -2.6%
NYM -1.5 +143 +196 -7.3%
TOR +1.5 -173 -196 +2.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -13.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +9.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.4% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.0%
Fair ML: -159 | Kelly: 4.75%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00886
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | July 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Paul Skenes Home: Zack Wheeler
ERA: 3.1 ERA: 2.03
WHIP: 0.97 WHIP: 0.86
K/9: 11.03 K/9: 8.84
BB/9: 1.94 BB/9: 2.27
FIP: 2.55 FIP: 3.27
IP: 93.0 IP: 75.3
xERA: 2.64 xERA: 2.96
xwOBA: 0.255 xwOBA: 0.27
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT PHI Lg Avg
Record 43-43 48-38
R/Game 5.12 4.45 4.50
RA/Game 4.84 4.38 4.49
OPS 0.754 0.706 0.719
wOBA 0.326 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.22 4.10 4.18
FIP 3.70 3.56 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.30 1.31
K/9 9.23 9.70 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.526 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.54 4.33 4.25
BP FIP 4.06 3.28 4.07
BP WHIP 1.42 1.36
BP K/9 9.38 10.42
BP Quality* 49.3 44.0 46.3
BP IP 241.7 260.0
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brandan Bidois (31 pitches yesterday)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Chase Shugart (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0170 (Temp: 1.0378 | Wind: 0.9800)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 4.2 - PHI 3.9
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.2 - PHI 3.9
Win Probability: PIT 52.4% - PHI 47.6%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -110 / PHI +110
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.0: 42.8%
Under 8.0: 47.5%
PIT +1.5: 69.8%
PHI -1.5: 30.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 2.0 - PHI 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.0 - PHI 1.7
F5 Win Prob: PIT 55.7% - PHI 44.3% (Tie: 19.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -126 / PHI +126
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML +119 -110 +6.8%
PHI ML -144 +110 -11.4%
PIT +1.5 -185 -232 +4.9%
PHI -1.5 +152 +232 -9.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -9.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -4.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | July 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael McGreevy Home: Reynaldo López
ERA: 3.12 ERA: 3.47
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 5.74 K/9: 7.71
BB/9: 2.12 BB/9: 4.05
FIP: 4.28 FIP: 4.41
IP: 89.3 IP: 46.7
xERA: 5.59 xERA: 4.87
xwOBA: 0.361 xwOBA: 0.34
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL ATL Lg Avg
Record 44-38 49-34
R/Game 4.48 4.73 4.50
RA/Game 4.55 3.70 4.49
OPS 0.716 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.24 3.43 4.18
FIP 4.12 3.84 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.21 1.31
K/9 7.58 8.71 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.493 0.611 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.42 2.66 4.25
BP FIP 4.22 3.33 4.07
BP WHIP 1.39 1.07
BP K/9 7.91 9.00
BP Quality* 52.6 35.2 46.3
BP IP 307.3 240.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 95°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 14%
Conditions: Hot (95°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0385 (Temp: 1.0344 | Wind: 1.0040)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.3 - ATL 5.6
Simulated Avg: STL 4.3 - ATL 5.6
Win Probability: STL 38.1% - ATL 61.9%
Fair Moneyline: STL +162 / ATL -162
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 9.0: 50.6%
Under 9.0: 40.8%
STL +1.5: 53.2%
ATL -1.5: 46.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.7 - ATL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.7 - ATL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: STL 46.1% - ATL 53.9% (Tie: 14.5%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +117 / ATL -117
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +114 +162 -8.6%
ATL ML -137 -162 +4.1%
STL +1.5 -179 -114 -10.9%
ATL -1.5 +148 +114 +6.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -1.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -11.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | July 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shane McClanahan Home: Seth Lugo
ERA: 3.3 ERA: 4.18
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 8.92 K/9: 6.87
BB/9: 3.42 BB/9: 2.99
FIP: 3.32 FIP: 4.01
IP: 73.7 IP: 90.3
xERA: 4.31 xERA: 5.27
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.352
Pitcher Edge: TB (Shane McClanahan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB KC Lg Avg
Record 49-33 35-51
R/Game 4.59 4.20 4.50
RA/Game 4.22 5.08 4.49
OPS 0.735 0.707 0.719
wOBA 0.316 0.305 0.310
ERA 3.78 4.88 4.18
FIP 4.04 4.57 4.04
WHIP 1.20 1.44 1.31
K/9 7.97 7.81 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.538 0.413 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.15 5.74 4.25
BP FIP 4.23 5.24 4.07
BP WHIP 1.27 1.62
BP K/9 7.95 7.88
BP Quality* 47.5 65.0 46.3
BP IP 303.3 310.7
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Eric Cerantola (43 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Lucas Erceg (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Beck Way (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 25 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), wind in (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9846 (Temp: 1.0306 | Wind: 0.9554)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 5.3 - KC 3.9
Simulated Avg: TB 5.3 - KC 3.9
Win Probability: TB 62.9% - KC 37.1%
Fair Moneyline: TB -169 / KC +169
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 10.5: 36.4%
Under 10.5: 63.6%
TB -1.5: 47.3%
KC +1.5: 52.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.6 - KC 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.6 - KC 2.0
F5 Win Prob: TB 60.9% - KC 39.1% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -156 / KC +156
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -136 -169 +5.3%
KC ML +113 +169 -9.8%
TB -1.5 +113 +112 +0.3%
KC +1.5 -136 -112 -4.9%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -16.0%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +11.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 10.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00887
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | July 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Taj Bradley Home: Tatsuya Imai
ERA: 3.98 ERA: 5.36
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 9.79 K/9: 11.11
BB/9: 3.76 BB/9: 4.79
FIP: 4.04 FIP: 3.89
IP: 83.7 IP: 47.0
xERA: 4.14 xERA: 4.14
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN HOU Lg Avg
Record 41-46 43-45
R/Game 4.84 4.51 4.50
RA/Game 5.20 4.98 4.49
OPS 0.732 0.726 0.719
wOBA 0.316 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.87 4.73 4.18
FIP 4.21 4.56 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.39 1.31
K/9 8.32 8.73 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.455 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.26 4.52 4.25
BP FIP 4.42 4.56 4.07
BP WHIP 1.54 1.37
BP K/9 7.95 8.63
BP Quality* 54.6 55.7 46.3
BP IP 328.3 324.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0022 (Temp: 1.0206 | Wind: 0.9820)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 5.3 - HOU 4.9
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.3 - HOU 4.8
Win Probability: MIN 53.5% - HOU 46.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -115 / HOU +115
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 8.5: 60.7%
Under 8.5: 39.3%
MIN +1.5: 68.2%
HOU -1.5: 31.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.8 - HOU 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.8 - HOU 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIN 55.1% - HOU 44.9% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -123 / HOU +123
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +113 -115 +6.6%
HOU ML -136 +115 -11.1%
MIN +1.5 -188 -214 +2.9%
HOU -1.5 +154 +214 -7.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +8.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -13.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.7% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.3%
Fair ML: -154 | Kelly: 4.36%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00888
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | July 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andrew Abbott Home: Shane Drohan
ERA: 3.9 ERA: 3.12
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 7.0 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 4.0 BB/9: 2.94
FIP: 5.04 FIP: 3.08
IP: 90.0 IP: 52.0
xERA: 4.84 xERA: 3.31
xwOBA: 0.339 xwOBA: 0.285
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Shane Drohan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN MIL Lg Avg
Record 39-45 52-31
R/Game 4.23 5.18 4.50
RA/Game 4.92 3.65 4.49
OPS 0.698 0.735 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.62 3.38 4.18
FIP 4.84 3.40 4.04
WHIP 1.46 1.18 1.31
K/9 8.19 9.91 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.431 0.655 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.94 3.72 4.25
BP FIP 5.13 3.66 4.07
BP WHIP 1.52 1.33
BP K/9 8.46 9.16
BP Quality* 56.7 47.0 46.3
BP IP 324.3 283.0
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9956 (Temp: 1.0255 | Wind: 0.9708)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 3.5 - MIL 6.1
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.5 - MIL 6.1
Win Probability: CIN 27.5% - MIL 72.5%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +264 / MIL -264
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 9.0: 47.9%
Under 9.0: 43.5%
CIN +1.5: 42.2%
MIL -1.5: 57.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 1.7 - MIL 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 1.7 - MIL 3.2
F5 Win Prob: CIN 26.7% - MIL 73.3% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +275 / MIL -275
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +135 +264 -15.1%
MIL ML -163 -264 +10.5%
CIN +1.5 -155 +137 -18.6%
MIL -1.5 +128 -137 +13.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -4.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -8.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Milwaukee Brewers (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -163 | Edge: 10.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00889
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | July 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Max Meyer Home: Kyle Freeland
ERA: 2.6 ERA: 7.5
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.61
K/9: 9.93 K/9: 7.63
BB/9: 3.34 BB/9: 2.13
FIP: 3.08 FIP: 5.0
IP: 97.0 IP: 72.0
xERA: 3.64 xERA: 5.85
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.368
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Max Meyer)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA COL Lg Avg
Record 46-40 33-53
R/Game 4.45 4.62 4.50
RA/Game 4.17 5.81 4.49
OPS 0.724 0.740 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.319 0.310
ERA 3.96 5.63 4.18
FIP 3.76 4.67 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.53 1.31
K/9 8.64 7.14 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.530 0.396 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.99 5.39 4.25
BP FIP 3.47 4.55 4.07
BP WHIP 1.21 1.56
BP K/9 9.65 7.39
BP Quality* 44.5 57.3 46.3
BP IP 248.0 302.0
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Zach Brzykcy (39 pitches yesterday)
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: John Brebbia (48 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Seth Halvorsen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), crosswind (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0293 (Temp: 1.0253 | Wind: 1.0038)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 6.9 - COL 4.7
Simulated Avg: MIA 7.0 - COL 4.7
Win Probability: MIA 67.7% - COL 32.3%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -209 / COL +209
Avg Total Runs: 11.6
Over 11.0: 48.1%
Under 11.0: 44.3%
MIA -1.5: 54.9%
COL +1.5: 45.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 4.1 - COL 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 4.1 - COL 2.3
F5 Win Prob: MIA 72.5% - COL 27.5% (Tie: 12.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -264 / COL +264
F5 Avg Total: 6.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML -167 -209 +5.1%
COL ML +138 +209 -9.7%
MIA -1.5 -110 -122 +2.5%
COL +1.5 -109 +122 -7.1%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -4.2%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -8.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Athletics
Regular Season | July 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: J.T. Ginn
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD ATH Lg Avg
Record 56-30 40-46
R/Game 5.36 4.58 4.50
RA/Game 3.47 5.34 4.49
OPS 0.790 0.734 0.719
wOBA 0.338 0.315 0.310
ERA 3.43 5.02 4.18
FIP 3.61 4.63 4.04
WHIP 1.12 1.45 1.31
K/9 9.01 8.45 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.690 0.431 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.87 5.46 4.25
BP FIP 3.46 4.54 4.07
BP WHIP 1.26 1.54
BP K/9 9.93 9.40
BP Quality* 41.3 56.9 46.3
BP IP 272.0 306.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Geoff Hartlieb (52 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9782 (Temp: 0.9914 | Wind: 0.9867)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 5.4 - ATH 4.5
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.5 - ATH 4.5
Win Probability: LAD 58.4% - ATH 41.6%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -140 / ATH +140
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 11.0: 34.7%
Under 11.0: 57.7%
LAD -1.5: 43.7%
ATH +1.5: 56.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.6 - ATH 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.6 - ATH 2.6
F5 Win Prob: LAD 50.7% - ATH 49.3% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -103 / ATH +103
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -171 -140 -4.7%
ATH ML +141 +140 +0.1%
LAD -1.5 -111 +129 -8.9%
ATH +1.5 -108 -129 +4.3%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -17.7%
U 11.0 -110 N/A +5.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | July 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Trevor McDonald Home: Zac Gallen
ERA: 4.94 ERA: 6.15
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.58
K/9: 7.94 K/9: 5.42
BB/9: 3.35 BB/9: 2.81
FIP: 3.47 FIP: 5.09
IP: 51.0 IP: 86.3
xERA: 4.25 xERA: 6.16
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.376
Pitcher Edge: SF (Trevor McDonald)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF ARI Lg Avg
Record 35-50 43-42
R/Game 4.04 4.27 4.50
RA/Game 4.71 4.55 4.49
OPS 0.724 0.697 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.301 0.310
ERA 4.37 4.30 4.18
FIP 4.13 4.38 4.04
WHIP 1.37 1.29 1.31
K/9 7.86 6.91 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.430 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.42 3.90 4.25
BP FIP 4.38 3.84 4.07
BP WHIP 1.46 1.20
BP K/9 7.59 7.73
BP Quality* 51.1 44.5 46.3
BP IP 283.3 265.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Adrian Houser (76 pitches yesterday)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Drey Jameson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0325 (Temp: 1.0372 | Wind: 0.9955)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 5.0 - ARI 4.7
Simulated Avg: SF 5.0 - ARI 4.7
Win Probability: SF 52.4% - ARI 47.6%
Fair Moneyline: SF -110 / ARI +110
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 9.5: 48.8%
Under 9.5: 51.2%
SF +1.5: 67.6%
ARI -1.5: 32.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 3.2 - ARI 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 3.2 - ARI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SF 60.7% - ARI 39.3% (Tie: 14.3%)
F5 Fair ML: SF -154 / ARI +154
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +109 -110 +4.6%
ARI ML -131 +110 -9.1%
SF +1.5 -186 -209 +2.6%
ARI -1.5 +153 +209 -7.1%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -3.6%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -1.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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