2026-07-02
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-02
Games: 9 | Plays: 1
======================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | July 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jared Jones Home: Alan Rangel
ERA: 5.76 ERA: 4.5
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 9.75
BB/9: 3.24 BB/9: 1.5
FIP: 4.78 FIP: 2.52
IP: 25.0 IP: 12.0
xERA: 4.81 xERA: 2.97
xwOBA: 0.338 xwOBA: 0.27
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Alan Rangel)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT PHI Lg Avg
Record 43-44 49-38
R/Game 5.13 4.52 4.50
RA/Game 4.90 4.40 4.50
OPS 0.755 0.710 0.719
wOBA 0.326 0.306 0.310
ERA 4.28 4.12 4.19
FIP 3.73 3.55 4.05
WHIP 1.31 1.30 1.31
K/9 9.28 9.74 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.521 0.512 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.54 4.32 4.26
BP FIP 4.07 3.28 4.07
BP WHIP 1.42 1.36
BP K/9 9.53 10.35
BP Quality* 50.8 44.0 46.4
BP IP 245.7 264.3
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cam Sanders (44 pitches yesterday)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Seth Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 101°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (101°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0399 (Temp: 1.0435 | Wind: 0.9966)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 5.3 - PHI 5.6
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.3 - PHI 5.6
Win Probability: PIT 47.7% - PHI 52.3%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +110 / PHI -110
Avg Total Runs: 10.9
Over 10.5: 50.6%
Under 10.5: 49.4%
PIT +1.5: 61.7%
PHI -1.5: 38.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 3.1 - PHI 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 3.1 - PHI 3.1
F5 Win Prob: PIT 49.0% - PHI 51.0% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +104 / PHI -104
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML +109 +110 -0.1%
PHI ML -131 -110 -4.4%
PIT +1.5 -181 -161 -2.7%
PHI -1.5 +149 +161 -1.9%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -1.7%
U 10.5 -110 N/A -3.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | July 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Chase Burns Home: Jacob Misiorowski
ERA: 2.36 ERA: 1.45
WHIP: 1.08 WHIP: 0.77
K/9: 11.0 K/9: 13.27
BB/9: 2.85 BB/9: 2.45
FIP: 3.17 FIP: 1.63
IP: 91.7 IP: 99.0
xERA: 2.97 xERA: 2.12
xwOBA: 0.27 xwOBA: 0.228
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN MIL Lg Avg
Record 39-46 53-31
R/Game 4.20 5.17 4.50
RA/Game 4.91 3.63 4.50
OPS 0.698 0.737 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.317 0.310
ERA 4.62 3.37 4.19
FIP 4.84 3.40 4.05
WHIP 1.47 1.18 1.31
K/9 8.15 9.91 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.429 0.656 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.95 3.68 4.26
BP FIP 5.13 3.63 4.07
BP WHIP 1.52 1.32
BP K/9 8.41 9.15
BP Quality* 56.7 46.6 46.4
BP IP 327.3 286.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0033 (Temp: 1.0279 | Wind: 0.9760)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 2.9 - MIL 4.8
Simulated Avg: CIN 2.9 - MIL 4.7
Win Probability: CIN 30.3% - MIL 69.7%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +230 / MIL -230
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.0: 48.1%
Under 7.0: 41.5%
CIN +1.5: 47.9%
MIL -1.5: 52.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 1.1 - MIL 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 1.1 - MIL 2.0
F5 Win Prob: CIN 30.8% - MIL 69.2% (Tie: 21.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +224 / MIL -224
F5 Avg Total: 3.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +163 +230 -7.7%
MIL ML -199 -230 +3.1%
CIN +1.5 -143 +109 -11.0%
MIL -1.5 +119 -109 +6.5%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -4.3%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -10.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | July 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryan Gusto Home: Michael Lorenzen
ERA: 5.06 ERA: 6.83
WHIP: 1.55 WHIP: 1.79
K/9: 8.44 K/9: 7.27
BB/9: 3.38 BB/9: 2.87
FIP: 3.57 FIP: 4.51
IP: 21.3 IP: 81.7
xERA: 5.11 xERA: 5.53
xwOBA: 0.347 xwOBA: 0.359
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Ryan Gusto)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA COL Lg Avg
Record 46-41 34-53
R/Game 4.44 4.63 4.50
RA/Game 4.20 5.78 4.50
OPS 0.724 0.741 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.319 0.310
ERA 3.95 5.60 4.19
FIP 3.79 4.64 4.05
WHIP 1.24 1.52 1.31
K/9 8.62 7.19 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.526 0.400 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.00 5.37 4.26
BP FIP 3.51 4.56 4.07
BP WHIP 1.21 1.55
BP K/9 9.61 7.44
BP Quality* 41.7 54.2 46.4
BP IP 250.0 305.0
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0251 (Temp: 1.0251 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 6.4 - COL 5.5
Simulated Avg: MIA 6.3 - COL 5.5
Win Probability: MIA 56.5% - COL 43.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -130 / COL +130
Avg Total Runs: 11.8
Over 12.0: 42.4%
Under 12.0: 50.4%
MIA -1.5: 43.6%
COL +1.5: 56.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 3.7 - COL 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 3.8 - COL 3.2
F5 Win Prob: MIA 56.7% - COL 43.3% (Tie: 12.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -131 / COL +131
F5 Avg Total: 7.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML -131 -130 -0.2%
COL ML +109 +130 -4.4%
MIA -1.5 +114 +129 -3.1%
COL +1.5 -137 -129 -1.4%
O 12.0 -110 N/A -10.0%
U 12.0 -110 N/A -2.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | July 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Davis Martin Home: Slade Cecconi
ERA: 3.0 ERA: 4.18
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 8.71 K/9: 6.97
BB/9: 2.32 BB/9: 2.89
FIP: 2.78 FIP: 4.24
IP: 93.0 IP: 90.3
xERA: 3.86 xERA: 4.41
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Davis Martin)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
Record 45-40 45-42
R/Game 4.82 3.97 4.50
RA/Game 4.53 4.06 4.50
OPS 0.738 0.677 0.719
wOBA 0.316 0.294 0.310
ERA 4.23 3.77 4.19
FIP 4.08 3.84 4.05
WHIP 1.33 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.51 9.27 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.529 0.490 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.60 3.95 4.26
BP FIP 4.51 3.66 4.07
BP WHIP 1.36 1.35
BP K/9 8.14 10.41
BP Quality* 52.9 47.5 46.4
BP IP 246.7 282.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (31 pitches yesterday)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), crosswind (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0260 (Temp: 1.0303 | Wind: 0.9959)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 4.8 - CLE 3.7
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.8 - CLE 3.7
Win Probability: CWS 60.8% - CLE 39.2%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -155 / CLE +155
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.5: 46.9%
Under 8.5: 53.1%
CWS -1.5: 44.4%
CLE +1.5: 55.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.7 - CLE 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.7 - CLE 1.7
F5 Win Prob: CWS 67.5% - CLE 32.6% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -207 / CLE +207
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML -107 -155 +9.1%
CLE ML -112 +155 -13.6%
CWS -1.5 +152 +125 +4.7%
CLE +1.5 -184 -125 -9.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -5.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +0.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | July 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Dustin May Home: Hurston Waldrep
ERA: 4.3 ERA: 0.0
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 3.0
K/9: 8.28 K/9: 13.5
BB/9: 2.37 BB/9: 18.0
FIP: 3.14 FIP: 6.1
IP: 83.7 IP: 2.0
xERA: 3.73 xERA: 6.05
xwOBA: 0.301 xwOBA: 0.373
Pitcher Edge: STL (Dustin May)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL ATL Lg Avg
Record 44-39 50-34
R/Game 4.43 4.74 4.50
RA/Game 4.55 3.67 4.50
OPS 0.711 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.24 3.40 4.19
FIP 4.13 3.81 4.05
WHIP 1.35 1.20 1.31
K/9 7.56 8.74 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.488 0.615 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.45 2.62 4.26
BP FIP 4.23 3.28 4.07
BP WHIP 1.40 1.06
BP K/9 7.91 9.04
BP Quality* 48.4 37.7 46.4
BP IP 309.3 244.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 96°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Hot (96°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0420 (Temp: 1.0355 | Wind: 1.0062)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 3.3 - ATL 4.8
Simulated Avg: STL 3.3 - ATL 4.8
Win Probability: STL 34.5% - ATL 65.5%
Fair Moneyline: STL +190 / ATL -190
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.5: 43.3%
Under 8.5: 56.7%
STL -1.5: 19.9%
ATL +1.5: 80.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 1.7 - ATL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 1.7 - ATL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: STL 35.4% - ATL 64.6% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +183 / ATL -183
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML -105 +190 -16.7%
ATL ML -115 -190 +12.0%
STL -1.5 +154 +402 -19.4%
ATL +1.5 -188 -402 +14.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -9.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +4.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Atlanta Braves +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -188 | Edge: 14.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00890
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | July 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ian Seymour Home: Stephen Kolek
ERA: 4.32 ERA: 4.15
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 9.36 K/9: 5.88
BB/9: 3.6 BB/9: 1.9
FIP: 4.04 FIP: 4.43
IP: 50.0 IP: 52.0
xERA: 3.34 xERA: 3.81
xwOBA: 0.286 xwOBA: 0.304
Pitcher Edge: TB (Ian Seymour)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB KC Lg Avg
Record 50-33 35-52
R/Game 4.58 4.15 4.50
RA/Game 4.17 5.07 4.50
OPS 0.736 0.704 0.719
wOBA 0.317 0.304 0.310
ERA 3.74 4.87 4.19
FIP 4.01 4.56 4.05
WHIP 1.19 1.44 1.31
K/9 7.96 7.83 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.543 0.409 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.11 5.71 4.26
BP FIP 4.21 5.20 4.07
BP WHIP 1.27 1.61
BP K/9 7.96 7.89
BP Quality* 47.3 60.2 46.4
BP IP 306.3 313.7
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jose Cuas (42 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 93°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (93°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9933 (Temp: 1.0316 | Wind: 0.9628)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.9 - KC 4.0
Simulated Avg: TB 4.9 - KC 4.0
Win Probability: TB 58.9% - KC 41.1%
Fair Moneyline: TB -143 / KC +143
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 10.5: 33.4%
Under 10.5: 66.6%
TB -1.5: 42.9%
KC +1.5: 57.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.5 - KC 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.5 - KC 2.1
F5 Win Prob: TB 56.1% - KC 43.9% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -128 / KC +128
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -126 -143 +3.1%
KC ML +104 +143 -7.9%
TB -1.5 +119 +133 -2.8%
KC +1.5 -144 -133 -1.9%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -19.0%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +14.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 10.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 14.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00891
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | July 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Framber Valdez Home: Nathan Eovaldi
ERA: 4.05 ERA: 3.95
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 7.24 K/9: 9.06
BB/9: 3.2 BB/9: 2.06
FIP: 3.92 FIP: 3.98
IP: 95.7 IP: 100.3
xERA: 4.29 xERA: 4.03
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET TEX Lg Avg
Record 38-49 44-43
R/Game 4.21 4.07 4.50
RA/Game 4.08 4.16 4.50
OPS 0.710 0.711 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.73 3.99 4.19
FIP 3.74 3.93 4.05
WHIP 1.23 1.24 1.31
K/9 8.44 8.65 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.514 0.490 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.10 4.19 4.26
BP FIP 4.03 4.26 4.07
BP WHIP 1.36 1.26
BP K/9 8.63 7.60
BP Quality* 48.7 49.4 46.4
BP IP 320.3 274.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Drew Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Winston Santos (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 93°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (93°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0087 (Temp: 1.0316 | Wind: 0.9778)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 4.4 - TEX 4.5
Simulated Avg: DET 4.4 - TEX 4.5
Win Probability: DET 49.1% - TEX 50.9%
Fair Moneyline: DET +104 / TEX -104
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 7.0: 59.5%
Under 7.0: 31.6%
DET -1.5: 33.3%
TEX +1.5: 66.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 2.4 - TEX 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.3 - TEX 2.4
F5 Win Prob: DET 49.5% - TEX 50.5% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +102 / TEX -102
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -105 +104 -2.1%
TEX ML -115 -104 -2.6%
DET -1.5 +167 +200 -4.2%
TEX +1.5 -205 -200 -0.5%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +7.1%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -20.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.1%
Fair ML: -147 | Kelly: 3.72%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00892
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | July 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Walbert Ureña Home: Bryce Miller
ERA: 3.14 ERA: 1.97
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 0.72
K/9: 8.67 K/9: 10.64
BB/9: 4.65 BB/9: 0.99
FIP: 3.63 FIP: 3.06
IP: 71.7 IP: 45.7
xERA: 3.27 xERA: 2.28
xwOBA: 0.283 xwOBA: 0.237
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryce Miller)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA SEA Lg Avg
Record 36-51 44-43
R/Game 4.49 4.09 4.50
RA/Game 5.01 3.94 4.50
OPS 0.714 0.697 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.63 3.69 4.19
FIP 4.17 3.34 4.05
WHIP 1.41 1.19 1.31
K/9 9.00 8.85 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.450 0.517 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.70 3.51 4.26
BP FIP 4.48 3.38 4.07
BP WHIP 1.45 1.34
BP K/9 9.35 8.85
BP Quality* 50.6 40.6 46.4
BP IP 321.7 241.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9739 (Temp: 0.9868 | Wind: 0.9869)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 2.9 - SEA 3.5
Simulated Avg: LAA 2.9 - SEA 3.5
Win Probability: LAA 41.3% - SEA 58.7%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +142 / SEA -142
Avg Total Runs: 6.4
Over 7.0: 35.3%
Under 7.0: 53.9%
LAA +1.5: 62.0%
SEA -1.5: 38.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 1.4 - SEA 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.4 - SEA 1.7
F5 Win Prob: LAA 41.8% - SEA 58.2% (Tie: 22.8%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +140 / SEA -140
F5 Avg Total: 3.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +182 +142 +5.8%
SEA ML -224 -142 -10.4%
LAA +1.5 -126 -163 +6.3%
SEA -1.5 +105 +163 -10.8%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -17.1%
U 7.0 -110 N/A +1.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | July 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Randy Vásquez Home: Roki Sasaki
ERA: 4.44 ERA: 4.88
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 6.67 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 2.89 BB/9: 3.75
FIP: 4.67 FIP: 4.88
IP: 81.0 IP: 72.0
xERA: 7.05 xERA: 4.59
xwOBA: 0.397 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD LAD Lg Avg
Record 43-42 56-31
R/Game 3.92 5.31 4.50
RA/Game 4.34 3.51 4.50
OPS 0.672 0.789 0.719
wOBA 0.291 0.337 0.310
ERA 4.16 3.48 4.19
FIP 4.05 3.65 4.05
WHIP 1.33 1.12 1.31
K/9 8.39 8.97 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.453 0.681 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.72 3.99 4.26
BP FIP 3.63 3.58 4.07
BP WHIP 1.23 1.27
BP K/9 9.79 9.80
BP Quality* 44.2 43.8 46.4
BP IP 268.3 280.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Rodolfo Durán (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Kyle Hart (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Charlie Barnes (94 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9859 (Temp: 0.9910 | Wind: 0.9948)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.9 - LAD 6.0
Simulated Avg: SD 3.9 - LAD 6.0
Win Probability: SD 31.3% - LAD 68.7%
Fair Moneyline: SD +220 / LAD -220
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 9.0: 50.5%
Under 9.0: 41.0%
SD +1.5: 46.1%
LAD -1.5: 53.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.4 - LAD 3.7
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.3 - LAD 3.7
F5 Win Prob: SD 31.9% - LAD 68.1% (Tie: 13.3%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +214 / LAD -214
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +162 +220 -6.9%
LAD ML -198 -220 +2.3%
SD +1.5 -126 +117 -9.7%
LAD -1.5 +105 -117 +5.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -1.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -11.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================