2026-07-03
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-03
Games: 13 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | July 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andre Pallante Home: David Peterson
ERA: 3.83 ERA: 5.86
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.59
K/9: 6.85 K/9: 7.94
BB/9: 2.62 BB/9: 3.67
FIP: 3.76 FIP: 3.79
IP: 89.3 IP: 73.7
xERA: 3.79 xERA: 4.86
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: 0.339
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL CHC Lg Avg
Record 45-39 49-38
R/Game 4.51 5.15 4.51
RA/Game 4.56 4.43 4.51
OPS 0.716 0.754 0.720
wOBA 0.309 0.326 0.310
ERA 4.23 4.23 4.20
FIP 4.11 4.60 4.05
WHIP 1.34 1.26 1.31
K/9 7.54 7.90 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.495 0.569 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.31 4.21 4.27
BP FIP 4.18 4.73 4.08
BP WHIP 1.38 1.33
BP K/9 7.85 8.03
BP Quality* 56.5 49.1 46.5
BP IP 317.7 301.3
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Justin Bruihl (B2B, 40 pitches)
TIRED: Ryan Fernandez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 37%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0068 (Temp: 1.0123 | Wind: 0.9946)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 5.0 - CHC 5.7
Simulated Avg: STL 5.0 - CHC 5.7
Win Probability: STL 44.1% - CHC 55.9%
Fair Moneyline: STL +127 / CHC -127
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 10.5: 48.7%
Under 10.5: 51.3%
STL +1.5: 58.4%
CHC -1.5: 41.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 2.9 - CHC 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.9 - CHC 2.7
F5 Win Prob: STL 52.8% - CHC 47.2% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -112 / CHC +112
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +109 +127 -3.8%
CHC ML -131 -127 -0.8%
STL +1.5 -175 -141 -5.2%
CHC -1.5 +144 +141 +0.6%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -3.7%
U 10.5 -110 N/A -1.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | July 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Mitch Keller Home: Foster Griffin
ERA: 4.87 ERA: 2.93
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 6.96 K/9: 8.97
BB/9: 3.15 BB/9: 2.29
FIP: 3.84 FIP: 3.99
IP: 94.3 IP: 98.3
xERA: 4.99 xERA: 3.9
xwOBA: 0.343 xwOBA: 0.307
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT WSH Lg Avg
Record 44-44 45-43
R/Game 5.14 5.34 4.51
RA/Game 4.85 5.15 4.51
OPS 0.759 0.747 0.720
wOBA 0.328 0.320 0.310
ERA 4.24 4.63 4.20
FIP 3.70 4.54 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.38 1.31
K/9 9.29 7.91 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.526 0.517 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.52 5.69 4.27
BP FIP 4.06 5.01 4.08
BP WHIP 1.42 1.56
BP K/9 9.52 8.31
BP Quality* 49.2 57.2 46.5
BP IP 246.7 302.0
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Carmen Mlodzinski (35 pitches yesterday)
WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 102°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Hot (102°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0272 (Temp: 1.0454 | Wind: 0.9825)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 5.2 - WSH 5.8
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.2 - WSH 5.8
Win Probability: PIT 44.5% - WSH 55.5%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +125 / WSH -125
Avg Total Runs: 11.0
Over 9.5: 59.1%
Under 9.5: 40.9%
PIT +1.5: 58.8%
WSH -1.5: 41.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 2.5 - WSH 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.5 - WSH 3.2
F5 Win Prob: PIT 39.9% - WSH 60.1% (Tie: 14.3%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +151 / WSH -151
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML +124 +125 -0.1%
WSH ML -149 -125 -4.3%
PIT +1.5 -168 -142 -3.9%
WSH -1.5 +139 +142 -0.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +6.7%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -11.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | July 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Mike Paredes Home: Gerrit Cole
ERA: 4.26 ERA: 4.06
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 4.62 K/9: 8.12
BB/9: 3.2 BB/9: 2.39
FIP: 5.19 FIP: 4.51
IP: 25.3 IP: 37.7
xERA: 5.44 xERA: 3.5
xwOBA: 0.356 xwOBA: 0.292
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Gerrit Cole)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN NYY Lg Avg
Record 42-46 48-38
R/Game 4.88 4.85 4.51
RA/Game 5.17 3.84 4.51
OPS 0.733 0.740 0.720
wOBA 0.317 0.317 0.310
ERA 4.82 3.36 4.20
FIP 4.18 3.54 4.05
WHIP 1.40 1.19 1.31
K/9 8.37 8.78 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.605 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.20 3.18 4.27
BP FIP 4.40 3.46 4.08
BP WHIP 1.53 1.20
BP K/9 7.91 8.34
BP Quality* 52.7 38.8 46.5
BP IP 332.3 300.0
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 99°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 16%
Conditions: Hot (99°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0272 (Temp: 1.0407 | Wind: 0.9871)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 4.5 - NYY 5.6
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.5 - NYY 5.6
Win Probability: MIN 39.6% - NYY 60.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +153 / NYY -153
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 10.0: 43.6%
Under 10.0: 48.2%
MIN +1.5: 54.4%
NYY -1.5: 45.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 2.6 - NYY 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.6 - NYY 3.1
F5 Win Prob: MIN 43.0% - NYY 57.0% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +132 / NYY -132
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML +153 +153 +0.0%
NYY ML -187 -153 -4.7%
MIN +1.5 -131 -119 -2.3%
NYY -1.5 +108 +119 -2.5%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -8.7%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -4.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | July 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trevor Rogers Home: Brady Singer
ERA: 4.99 ERA: 5.12
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.54
K/9: 6.92 K/9: 7.56
BB/9: 2.72 BB/9: 2.91
FIP: 3.94 FIP: 5.58
IP: 79.3 IP: 77.3
xERA: 4.07 xERA: 5.58
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.36
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Trevor Rogers)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL CIN Lg Avg
Record 40-48 40-46
R/Game 4.58 4.23 4.51
RA/Game 4.95 4.87 4.51
OPS 0.716 0.700 0.720
wOBA 0.309 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.39 4.59 4.20
FIP 4.13 4.83 4.05
WHIP 1.37 1.46 1.31
K/9 8.13 8.14 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.464 0.436 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.23 4.90 4.27
BP FIP 3.96 5.09 4.08
BP WHIP 1.30 1.51
BP K/9 8.87 8.42
BP Quality* 46.6 59.3 46.5
BP IP 306.3 330.3
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Brock Burke (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 95°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Hot (95°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0120 (Temp: 1.0340 | Wind: 0.9787)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 6.3 - CIN 4.7
Simulated Avg: BAL 6.3 - CIN 4.7
Win Probability: BAL 63.0% - CIN 37.0%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -170 / CIN +170
Avg Total Runs: 11.0
Over 10.5: 50.7%
Under 10.5: 49.3%
BAL -1.5: 49.4%
CIN +1.5: 50.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 3.5 - CIN 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 3.5 - CIN 2.6
F5 Win Prob: BAL 62.2% - CIN 37.8% (Tie: 13.3%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -165 / CIN +165
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML -123 -170 +7.8%
CIN ML +102 +170 -12.5%
BAL -1.5 +128 +102 +5.6%
CIN +1.5 -155 -102 -10.2%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -1.6%
U 10.5 -110 N/A -3.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | July 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Anthony Kay Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 4.5 ERA: 3.81
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 7.31 K/9: 10.36
BB/9: 3.49 BB/9: 3.01
FIP: 4.42 FIP: 3.72
IP: 80.0 IP: 101.7
xERA: 5.4 xERA: 4.45
xwOBA: 0.355 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Gavin Williams)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
Record 45-41 46-42
R/Game 4.83 3.99 4.51
RA/Game 4.55 4.07 4.51
OPS 0.739 0.680 0.720
wOBA 0.317 0.296 0.310
ERA 4.26 3.78 4.20
FIP 4.12 3.84 4.05
WHIP 1.34 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.47 9.23 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.527 0.491 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 3.89 4.27
BP FIP 4.51 3.64 4.08
BP WHIP 1.36 1.34
BP K/9 8.09 10.36
BP Quality* 51.4 47.1 46.5
BP IP 249.3 286.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Shawn Armstrong (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Espino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0206 (Temp: 1.0279 | Wind: 0.9929)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 4.6 - CLE 4.5
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.6 - CLE 4.5
Win Probability: CWS 50.0% - CLE 50.0%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +100 / CLE -100
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.0: 52.5%
Under 8.0: 38.4%
CWS +1.5: 66.0%
CLE -1.5: 34.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.5 - CLE 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.5 - CLE 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CWS 49.7% - CLE 50.3% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +101 / CLE -101
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +109 +100 +2.1%
CLE ML -132 -100 -6.9%
CWS +1.5 -188 -194 +0.7%
CLE -1.5 +154 +194 -5.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +0.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -14.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | July 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Christian Scott Home: Grant Holmes
ERA: 3.2 ERA: 3.96
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 10.6 K/9: 8.03
BB/9: 4.2 BB/9: 4.31
FIP: 3.59 FIP: 5.11
IP: 45.0 IP: 77.3
xERA: 4.64 xERA: 4.76
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.336
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Christian Scott)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM ATL Lg Avg
Record 36-51 50-35
R/Game 3.98 4.74 4.51
RA/Game 4.54 3.75 4.51
OPS 0.673 0.715 0.720
wOBA 0.290 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.12 3.49 4.20
FIP 3.70 3.85 4.05
WHIP 1.28 1.21 1.31
K/9 9.20 8.68 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.440 0.605 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.05 2.92 4.27
BP FIP 3.42 3.43 4.08
BP WHIP 1.14 1.09
BP K/9 9.46 8.86
BP Quality* 37.5 44.2 46.5
BP IP 227.3 253.0
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: James Karinchak (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ian Hamilton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0161 (Temp: 1.0136 | Wind: 1.0025)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 4.2 - ATL 4.4
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.2 - ATL 4.4
Win Probability: NYM 48.5% - ATL 51.5%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +106 / ATL -106
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 9.0: 39.1%
Under 9.0: 51.9%
NYM -1.5: 32.4%
ATL +1.5: 67.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.5 - ATL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.5 - ATL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: NYM 50.5% - ATL 49.5% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -102 / ATL +102
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML -105 +106 -2.7%
ATL ML -114 -106 -1.8%
NYM -1.5 +154 +209 -7.0%
ATL +1.5 -188 -209 +2.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -13.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -0.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | July 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Ryan Feltner
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF COL Lg Avg
Record 36-50 35-53
R/Game 4.06 4.74 4.51
RA/Game 4.70 5.76 4.51
OPS 0.725 0.746 0.720
wOBA 0.308 0.321 0.310
ERA 4.37 5.58 4.20
FIP 4.09 4.64 4.05
WHIP 1.36 1.52 1.31
K/9 7.89 7.14 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.433 0.412 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.49 5.29 4.27
BP FIP 4.34 4.53 4.08
BP WHIP 1.47 1.54
BP K/9 7.67 7.38
BP Quality* 49.7 55.2 46.5
BP IP 286.3 309.7
Bullpen Edge: SF (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0580 (Temp: 1.0234 | Wind: 1.0338)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 5.7 - COL 6.0
Simulated Avg: SF 5.7 - COL 6.1
Win Probability: SF 46.6% - COL 53.4%
Fair Moneyline: SF +114 / COL -114
Avg Total Runs: 11.7
Over 11.0: 48.8%
Under 11.0: 43.8%
SF -1.5: 33.9%
COL +1.5: 66.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 3.2 - COL 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 3.2 - COL 3.2
F5 Win Prob: SF 49.3% - COL 50.7% (Tie: 13.4%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +103 / COL -103
F5 Avg Total: 6.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML -156 +114 -14.3%
COL ML +129 -114 +9.7%
SF -1.5 +101 +195 -15.9%
COL +1.5 -122 -195 +11.1%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -3.6%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -8.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -122 | Edge: 11.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00893
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | July 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Martinez Home: Spencer Arrighetti
ERA: 2.66 ERA: 4.0
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 5.51 K/9: 9.38
BB/9: 1.62 BB/9: 4.63
FIP: 3.65 FIP: 4.18
IP: 94.7 IP: 72.0
xERA: 4.57 xERA: 4.83
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.338
Pitcher Edge: TB (Nick Martinez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB HOU Lg Avg
Record 51-33 43-46
R/Game 4.58 4.49 4.51
RA/Game 4.14 5.01 4.51
OPS 0.737 0.725 0.720
wOBA 0.317 0.310 0.310
ERA 3.72 4.77 4.20
FIP 4.01 4.58 4.05
WHIP 1.18 1.39 1.31
K/9 7.98 8.77 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.546 0.450 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.10 4.50 4.27
BP FIP 4.23 4.51 4.08
BP WHIP 1.26 1.36
BP K/9 7.94 8.70
BP Quality* 50.3 49.3 46.5
BP IP 309.3 332.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0003 (Temp: 1.0214 | Wind: 0.9793)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.7 - HOU 4.4
Simulated Avg: TB 4.7 - HOU 4.4
Win Probability: TB 52.7% - HOU 47.3%
Fair Moneyline: TB -111 / HOU +111
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.5: 53.0%
Under 8.5: 46.9%
TB -1.5: 37.1%
HOU +1.5: 62.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.6 - HOU 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.6 - HOU 2.2
F5 Win Prob: TB 56.6% - HOU 43.4% (Tie: 16.3%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -130 / HOU +130
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -114 -111 -0.6%
HOU ML -105 +111 -3.9%
TB -1.5 +144 +170 -3.9%
HOU +1.5 -175 -170 -0.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -5.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | July 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jake Bennett Home: Reid Detmers
ERA: 3.27 ERA: 3.88
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 6.82 K/9: 10.11
BB/9: 1.91 BB/9: 2.8
FIP: 3.01 FIP: 2.83
IP: 33.0 IP: 99.7
xERA: 2.65 xERA: 3.04
xwOBA: 0.255 xwOBA: 0.273
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS LAA Lg Avg
Record 37-48 36-52
R/Game 3.96 4.44 4.51
RA/Game 4.05 4.97 4.51
OPS 0.694 0.709 0.720
wOBA 0.301 0.307 0.310
ERA 3.81 4.59 4.20
FIP 3.77 4.15 4.05
WHIP 1.26 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.67 9.03 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.491 0.449 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.01 4.67 4.27
BP FIP 3.93 4.44 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.45
BP K/9 8.60 9.39
BP Quality* 46.1 50.3 46.5
BP IP 253.3 324.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9837 (Temp: 1.0015 | Wind: 0.9822)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 3.4 - LAA 3.7
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.4 - LAA 3.7
Win Probability: BOS 47.1% - LAA 52.9%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +113 / LAA -113
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 7.5: 43.0%
Under 7.5: 57.0%
BOS -1.5: 29.0%
LAA +1.5: 71.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 1.6 - LAA 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.6 - LAA 1.7
F5 Win Prob: BOS 47.7% - LAA 52.3% (Tie: 21.3%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +110 / LAA -110
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -105 +113 -4.2%
LAA ML -114 -113 -0.3%
BOS -1.5 +162 +244 -9.1%
LAA +1.5 -197 -244 +4.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -9.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +4.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Athletics
Regular Season | July 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tyler Phillips Home: Jack Perkins
ERA: 3.02 ERA: 6.0
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 6.85 K/9: 10.94
BB/9: 4.11 BB/9: 3.0
FIP: 4.33 FIP: 3.2
IP: 65.7 IP: 51.0
xERA: 4.42 xERA: 3.79
xwOBA: 0.325 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: ATH (Jack Perkins)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA ATH Lg Avg
Record 46-42 41-46
R/Game 4.43 4.61 4.51
RA/Game 4.31 5.29 4.51
OPS 0.723 0.738 0.720
wOBA 0.312 0.317 0.310
ERA 4.07 4.97 4.20
FIP 3.82 4.63 4.05
WHIP 1.25 1.45 1.31
K/9 8.58 8.48 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.513 0.438 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.31 5.41 4.27
BP FIP 3.57 4.49 4.08
BP WHIP 1.24 1.54
BP K/9 9.49 9.51
BP Quality* 47.8 53.4 46.5
BP IP 255.0 309.3
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: John King (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9818 (Temp: 0.9910 | Wind: 0.9907)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 4.6 - ATH 4.7
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.6 - ATH 4.7
Win Probability: MIA 48.6% - ATH 51.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +106 / ATH -106
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 10.5: 36.7%
Under 10.5: 63.3%
MIA +1.5: 64.5%
ATH -1.5: 35.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.4 - ATH 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.4 - ATH 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIA 48.5% - ATH 51.5% (Tie: 16.3%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +106 / ATH -106
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +114 +106 +1.8%
ATH ML -137 -106 -6.4%
MIA +1.5 -171 -182 +1.4%
ATH -1.5 +141 +182 -6.0%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -15.7%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +10.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 10.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00894
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | July 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kyle Harrison Home: Jose Cabrera
ERA: 2.57 ERA: 3.6
WHIP: 1.04 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 11.22 K/9: 6.3
BB/9: 2.22 BB/9: 1.8
FIP: 2.87 FIP: 4.9
IP: 77.0 IP: 10.0
xERA: 3.04 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.273 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Kyle Harrison)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL ARI Lg Avg
Record 53-32 43-43
R/Game 5.13 4.27 4.51
RA/Game 3.67 4.57 4.51
OPS 0.734 0.694 0.720
wOBA 0.316 0.300 0.310
ERA 3.36 4.32 4.20
FIP 3.42 4.39 4.05
WHIP 1.18 1.29 1.31
K/9 9.95 6.90 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.648 0.469 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.69 3.85 4.27
BP FIP 3.68 3.82 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.20
BP K/9 9.11 7.70
BP Quality* 45.5 45.8 46.5
BP IP 290.3 268.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Grant Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jared Koenig (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Thompson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 4.9 - ARI 3.5
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.9 - ARI 3.5
Win Probability: MIL 63.5% - ARI 36.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -174 / ARI +174
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 9.0: 37.2%
Under 9.0: 54.0%
MIL -1.5: 47.0%
ARI +1.5: 53.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.7 - ARI 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.7 - ARI 1.6
F5 Win Prob: MIL 69.1% - ARI 30.9% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -224 / ARI +224
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -156 -174 +2.6%
ARI ML +129 +174 -7.2%
MIL -1.5 +104 +113 -2.0%
ARI +1.5 -125 -113 -2.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -15.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +1.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | July 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael King Home: Shohei Ohtani
ERA: 3.55 ERA: 1.58
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 0.9
K/9: 7.75 K/9: 9.72
BB/9: 3.64 BB/9: 2.71
FIP: 3.94 FIP: 2.33
IP: 96.3 IP: 79.7
xERA: 4.76 xERA: 2.69
xwOBA: 0.336 xwOBA: 0.257
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Shohei Ohtani)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD LAD Lg Avg
Record 43-43 57-31
R/Game 3.95 5.39 4.51
RA/Game 4.43 3.55 4.51
OPS 0.676 0.794 0.720
wOBA 0.292 0.339 0.310
ERA 4.26 3.52 4.20
FIP 4.07 3.69 4.05
WHIP 1.35 1.13 1.31
K/9 8.35 8.97 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.448 0.683 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.78 3.93 4.27
BP FIP 3.64 3.56 4.08
BP WHIP 1.24 1.27
BP K/9 9.79 9.79
BP Quality* 44.6 43.5 46.5
BP IP 269.3 286.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Germán Márquez (56 pitches yesterday)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brock Stewart (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9871 (Temp: 0.9927 | Wind: 0.9943)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 2.6 - LAD 5.1
Simulated Avg: SD 2.6 - LAD 5.1
Win Probability: SD 24.1% - LAD 75.8%
Fair Moneyline: SD +314 / LAD -314
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 8.0: 39.3%
Under 8.0: 51.0%
SD +1.5: 40.9%
LAD -1.5: 59.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 1.1 - LAD 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.1 - LAD 2.9
F5 Win Prob: SD 19.4% - LAD 80.6% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +415 / LAD -415
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +208 +314 -8.3%
LAD ML -258 -314 +3.8%
SD +1.5 -104 +145 -10.1%
LAD -1.5 -115 -145 +5.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -13.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -1.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | July 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Dylan Cease Home: Luis Castillo
ERA: 3.02 ERA: 4.93
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 13.82 K/9: 8.57
BB/9: 4.32 BB/9: 3.05
FIP: 2.25 FIP: 3.74
IP: 83.3 IP: 76.7
xERA: 3.0 xERA: 4.6
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Dylan Cease)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR SEA Lg Avg
Record 41-46 45-43
R/Game 4.07 4.06 4.51
RA/Game 4.40 3.90 4.51
OPS 0.700 0.694 0.720
wOBA 0.301 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.08 3.65 4.20
FIP 3.96 3.32 4.05
WHIP 1.31 1.18 1.31
K/9 8.95 8.86 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.464 0.518 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.51 3.48 4.27
BP FIP 3.52 3.37 4.08
BP WHIP 1.30 1.34
BP K/9 9.03 8.85
BP Quality* 40.8 43.4 46.5
BP IP 292.0 243.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0082 (Temp: 0.9923 | Wind: 1.0160)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 3.8 - SEA 2.9
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.7 - SEA 2.9
Win Probability: TOR 59.6% - SEA 40.4%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -148 / SEA +148
Avg Total Runs: 6.6
Over 7.0: 37.7%
Under 7.0: 51.8%
TOR -1.5: 39.9%
SEA +1.5: 60.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.2 - SEA 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.2 - SEA 1.4
F5 Win Prob: TOR 66.7% - SEA 33.3% (Tie: 19.9%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -200 / SEA +200
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML -126 -148 +3.9%
SEA ML +105 +148 -8.4%
TOR -1.5 +141 +150 -1.6%
SEA +1.5 -171 -150 -3.0%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -14.7%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -0.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================