2026-07-04
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-04
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | July 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Braxton Ashcraft Home: Carson Palmquist
ERA: 3.33 ERA: 2.08
WHIP: 1.08 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 10.08 K/9: 8.31
BB/9: 2.02 BB/9: 2.08
FIP: 2.92 FIP: 1.94
IP: 102.7 IP: 4.3
xERA: 3.07 xERA: 3.61
xwOBA: 0.274 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Carson Palmquist)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT WSH Lg Avg
Record 44-45 46-43
R/Game 5.13 5.38 4.51
RA/Game 4.90 5.15 4.51
OPS 0.760 0.753 0.720
wOBA 0.329 0.322 0.310
ERA 4.30 4.63 4.20
FIP 3.78 4.53 4.05
WHIP 1.31 1.38 1.31
K/9 9.22 7.90 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.522 0.520 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.63 5.74 4.27
BP FIP 4.18 4.97 4.08
BP WHIP 1.44 1.58
BP K/9 9.48 8.35
BP Quality* 50.3 58.8 46.4
BP IP 248.7 306.0
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Isaac Mattson (37 pitches yesterday)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Zak Kent (41 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 99°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (99°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0392 (Temp: 1.0405 | Wind: 0.9987)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 5.6 - WSH 4.9
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.6 - WSH 4.9
Win Probability: PIT 56.2% - WSH 43.8%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -128 / WSH +128
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 10.5: 47.2%
Under 10.5: 52.8%
PIT -1.5: 41.9%
WSH +1.5: 58.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 2.8 - WSH 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.8 - WSH 2.3
F5 Win Prob: PIT 58.6% - WSH 41.4% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -141 / WSH +141
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML -162 -128 -5.7%
WSH ML +134 +128 +1.1%
PIT -1.5 -104 +138 -9.0%
WSH +1.5 -115 -138 +4.6%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -5.2%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +0.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | July 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zebby Matthews Home: Brendan Beck
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 6.0
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.67
K/9: 7.35 K/9: 3.0
BB/9: 1.92 BB/9: 9.0
FIP: 4.65 FIP: 9.77
IP: 56.3 IP: 3.0
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 11.8
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.481
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Zebby Matthews)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN NYY Lg Avg
Record 42-47 49-38
R/Game 4.84 4.85 4.51
RA/Game 5.17 3.82 4.51
OPS 0.732 0.739 0.720
wOBA 0.316 0.317 0.310
ERA 4.83 3.34 4.20
FIP 4.20 3.52 4.05
WHIP 1.39 1.19 1.31
K/9 8.33 8.84 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.608 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.19 3.14 4.27
BP FIP 4.38 3.43 4.08
BP WHIP 1.52 1.19
BP K/9 7.87 8.44
BP Quality* 52.5 42.9 46.4
BP IP 336.3 304.0
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 98°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (98°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0147 (Temp: 1.0387 | Wind: 0.9769)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 4.4 - NYY 5.4
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.4 - NYY 5.4
Win Probability: MIN 40.9% - NYY 59.1%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +144 / NYY -144
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 10.0: 41.7%
Under 10.0: 49.9%
MIN +1.5: 56.0%
NYY -1.5: 44.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 2.5 - NYY 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.5 - NYY 2.9
F5 Win Prob: MIN 44.3% - NYY 55.7% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +126 / NYY -126
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML +130 +144 -2.5%
NYY ML -157 -144 -2.0%
MIN +1.5 -155 -127 -4.8%
NYY -1.5 +128 +127 +0.1%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -10.7%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -2.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | July 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jack Flaherty Home: Kumar Rocker
ERA: 4.97 ERA: 3.83
WHIP: 1.53 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 11.08 K/9: 7.88
BB/9: 4.71 BB/9: 3.49
FIP: 3.68 FIP: 3.81
IP: 70.7 IP: 80.0
xERA: 4.39 xERA: 4.54
xwOBA: 0.324 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET TEX Lg Avg
Record 38-50 45-43
R/Game 4.20 4.14 4.51
RA/Game 4.15 4.16 4.51
OPS 0.712 0.716 0.720
wOBA 0.309 0.311 0.310
ERA 3.81 3.99 4.20
FIP 3.79 3.93 4.05
WHIP 1.24 1.24 1.31
K/9 8.39 8.72 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.497 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.20 4.18 4.27
BP FIP 4.11 4.23 4.08
BP WHIP 1.38 1.26
BP K/9 8.60 7.64
BP Quality* 48.1 47.7 46.4
BP IP 323.3 278.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cole Winn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 98°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (98°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0204 (Temp: 1.0396 | Wind: 0.9815)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 4.4 - TEX 4.7
Simulated Avg: DET 4.4 - TEX 4.7
Win Probability: DET 47.5% - TEX 52.5%
Fair Moneyline: DET +111 / TEX -111
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 7.5: 61.4%
Under 7.5: 38.6%
DET -1.5: 32.2%
TEX +1.5: 67.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.4 - TEX 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.4 - TEX 2.5
F5 Win Prob: DET 48.0% - TEX 52.0% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +109 / TEX -109
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML -120 +111 -7.1%
TEX ML -101 -111 +2.3%
DET -1.5 +141 +211 -9.3%
TEX +1.5 -171 -211 +4.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +9.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -13.8%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.4% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.1%
Fair ML: -159 | Kelly: 4.76%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00895
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | July 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane Bieber Home: Logan Gilbert
ERA: 6.0 ERA: 3.42
WHIP: 2.0 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 6.0 K/9: 9.63
BB/9: 4.0 BB/9: 1.98
FIP: 8.88 FIP: 3.44
IP: 9.0 IP: 100.0
xERA: 17.03 xERA: 3.85
xwOBA: 0.542 xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Logan Gilbert)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR SEA Lg Avg
Record 42-46 45-44
R/Game 4.05 4.01 4.51
RA/Game 4.35 3.88 4.51
OPS 0.697 0.691 0.720
wOBA 0.300 0.301 0.310
ERA 4.04 3.63 4.20
FIP 3.93 3.31 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.18 1.31
K/9 8.98 8.82 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.516 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.49 3.44 4.27
BP FIP 3.51 3.37 4.08
BP WHIP 1.30 1.33
BP K/9 9.06 8.78
BP Quality* 40.7 40.3 46.4
BP IP 294.0 246.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0023 (Temp: 0.9942 | Wind: 1.0081)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.2 - SEA 3.8
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.2 - SEA 3.8
Win Probability: TOR 43.0% - SEA 57.0%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +132 / SEA -132
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 7.5: 41.8%
Under 7.5: 58.2%
TOR +1.5: 62.4%
SEA -1.5: 37.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 1.8 - SEA 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.8 - SEA 2.2
F5 Win Prob: TOR 40.9% - SEA 59.1% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +145 / SEA -145
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +135 +132 +0.5%
SEA ML -163 -132 -5.0%
TOR +1.5 -162 -166 +0.6%
SEA -1.5 +134 +166 -5.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -10.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +5.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] CIN starter (id 668881) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (the model never uses prior-season data).
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | July 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brandon Young Home: Player 668881
ERA: 3.11 ERA: 0.0
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 0.0
K/9: 7.09 K/9: 0.0
BB/9: 3.36 BB/9: 0.0
FIP: 3.9 FIP: 0.0
IP: 72.3 IP: 0.0
xERA: 4.24 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Player 668881)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL CIN Lg Avg
Record 41-48 40-47
R/Game 4.56 4.18 4.51
RA/Game 4.90 4.85 4.51
OPS 0.714 0.697 0.720
wOBA 0.309 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.34 4.56 4.20
FIP 4.12 4.82 4.05
WHIP 1.37 1.45 1.31
K/9 8.11 8.13 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.433 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.18 4.85 4.27
BP FIP 3.93 5.06 4.08
BP WHIP 1.29 1.50
BP K/9 8.85 8.34
BP Quality* 46.3 57.4 46.4
BP IP 310.3 334.3
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 19%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0210 (Temp: 1.0276 | Wind: 0.9935)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 5.0 - CIN 4.4
Simulated Avg: BAL 5.0 - CIN 4.4
Win Probability: BAL 55.5% - CIN 44.5%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -125 / CIN +125
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 9.0: 46.2%
Under 9.0: 44.9%
BAL +1.5: 70.6%
CIN -1.5: 29.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.4 - CIN 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.4 - CIN 2.3
F5 Win Prob: BAL 51.0% - CIN 49.0% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -104 / CIN +104
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +109 -125 +7.7%
CIN ML -132 +125 -12.4%
BAL +1.5 -192 -240 +4.8%
CIN -1.5 +157 +240 -9.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -6.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -7.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | July 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Drew Rasmussen Home: Hunter Brown
ERA: 2.45 ERA: 1.78
WHIP: 0.87 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 9.2 K/9: 11.37
BB/9: 1.57 BB/9: 4.62
FIP: 2.85 FIP: 3.14
IP: 92.0 IP: 25.3
xERA: 3.0 xERA: 2.69
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.257
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB HOU Lg Avg
Record 52-33 43-47
R/Game 4.56 4.46 4.51
RA/Game 4.11 4.99 4.51
OPS 0.736 0.722 0.720
wOBA 0.317 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.68 4.75 4.20
FIP 4.01 4.58 4.05
WHIP 1.18 1.38 1.31
K/9 7.93 8.76 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.548 0.448 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.05 4.51 4.27
BP FIP 4.21 4.51 4.08
BP WHIP 1.25 1.35
BP K/9 7.88 8.73
BP Quality* 50.0 49.2 46.4
BP IP 313.0 335.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 25%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9975 (Temp: 1.0159 | Wind: 0.9819)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.2 - HOU 3.8
Simulated Avg: TB 4.2 - HOU 3.8
Win Probability: TB 53.7% - HOU 46.3%
Fair Moneyline: TB -116 / HOU +116
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 7.0: 51.3%
Under 7.0: 38.6%
TB -1.5: 36.4%
HOU +1.5: 63.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.1 - HOU 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.1 - HOU 1.7
F5 Win Prob: TB 59.0% - HOU 41.0% (Tie: 19.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -144 / HOU +144
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML -110 -116 +1.4%
HOU ML -110 +116 -6.1%
TB -1.5 +154 +174 -2.9%
HOU +1.5 -188 -174 -1.7%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -1.1%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -13.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | July 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sean Burke Home: Parker Messick
ERA: 3.69 ERA: 2.85
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 9.23 K/9: 9.45
BB/9: 3.21 BB/9: 2.58
FIP: 3.66 FIP: 3.02
IP: 92.7 IP: 101.0
xERA: 3.9 xERA: 3.16
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.278
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
Record 45-42 47-42
R/Game 4.80 3.99 4.51
RA/Game 4.54 4.06 4.51
OPS 0.736 0.678 0.720
wOBA 0.315 0.295 0.310
ERA 4.24 3.77 4.20
FIP 4.10 3.83 4.05
WHIP 1.34 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.52 9.24 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.526 0.492 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 3.82 4.27
BP FIP 4.45 3.60 4.08
BP WHIP 1.36 1.32
BP K/9 8.27 10.33
BP Quality* 60.0 48.0 46.4
BP IP 253.7 292.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
UNAVAIL: Sean Newcomb (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Jordan Hicks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0074 (Temp: 1.0135 | Wind: 0.9940)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 3.9 - CLE 4.2
Simulated Avg: CWS 3.9 - CLE 4.2
Win Probability: CWS 46.3% - CLE 53.7%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +116 / CLE -116
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.5: 53.4%
Under 7.5: 46.6%
CWS +1.5: 63.8%
CLE -1.5: 36.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 1.9 - CLE 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 1.9 - CLE 1.9
F5 Win Prob: CWS 48.5% - CLE 51.5% (Tie: 19.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +106 / CLE -106
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +119 +116 +0.7%
CLE ML -144 -116 -5.3%
CWS +1.5 -184 -176 -1.0%
CLE -1.5 +151 +176 -3.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +1.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -5.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | July 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Leahy Home: Shota Imanaga
ERA: 4.09 ERA: 4.3
WHIP: 1.48 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 7.41 K/9: 8.42
BB/9: 3.43 BB/9: 2.11
FIP: 4.03 FIP: 4.58
IP: 81.3 IP: 98.3
xERA: 5.77 xERA: 3.66
xwOBA: 0.365 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: STL (Kyle Leahy)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL CHC Lg Avg
Record 46-39 49-39
R/Game 4.66 5.10 4.51
RA/Game 4.52 4.57 4.51
OPS 0.722 0.752 0.720
wOBA 0.311 0.325 0.310
ERA 4.19 4.38 4.20
FIP 4.09 4.63 4.05
WHIP 1.34 1.27 1.31
K/9 7.52 7.89 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.514 0.550 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.29 4.39 4.27
BP FIP 4.14 4.86 4.08
BP WHIP 1.37 1.36
BP K/9 7.88 7.88
BP Quality* 51.7 52.0 46.4
BP IP 321.0 330.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Max Rajcic (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bryse Wilson (72 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 30%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0293 (Temp: 0.9945 | Wind: 1.0350)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 5.1 - CHC 6.2
Simulated Avg: STL 5.1 - CHC 6.2
Win Probability: STL 41.0% - CHC 59.0%
Fair Moneyline: STL +144 / CHC -144
Avg Total Runs: 11.3
Over 8.0: 68.7%
Under 8.0: 24.1%
STL +1.5: 55.0%
CHC -1.5: 45.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.7 - CHC 3.4
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.7 - CHC 3.4
F5 Win Prob: STL 40.5% - CHC 59.5% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +147 / CHC -147
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +134 +144 -1.7%
CHC ML -162 -144 -2.9%
STL +1.5 -157 -122 -6.0%
CHC -1.5 +130 +122 +1.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +16.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -28.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 16.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00896
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | July 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sean Manaea Home: Chris Sale
ERA: 4.71 ERA: 2.1
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 9.14 K/9: 10.9
BB/9: 3.14 BB/9: 2.2
FIP: 3.35 FIP: 2.28
IP: 63.0 IP: 90.0
xERA: 4.07 xERA: 3.21
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.28
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Chris Sale)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM ATL Lg Avg
Record 36-52 51-35
R/Game 3.97 4.74 4.51
RA/Game 4.55 3.74 4.51
OPS 0.673 0.716 0.720
wOBA 0.290 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.13 3.47 4.20
FIP 3.75 3.86 4.05
WHIP 1.28 1.21 1.31
K/9 9.23 8.64 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.438 0.607 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.07 2.91 4.27
BP FIP 3.47 3.42 4.08
BP WHIP 1.14 1.10
BP K/9 9.41 8.82
BP Quality* 42.3 42.7 46.4
BP IP 228.7 257.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kodai Senga (44 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Joey Gerber (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 13%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0271 (Temp: 1.0225 | Wind: 1.0045)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 3.0 - ATL 4.7
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.0 - ATL 4.7
Win Probability: NYM 31.9% - ATL 68.1%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +214 / ATL -214
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 8.0: 39.1%
Under 8.0: 51.1%
NYM +1.5: 49.7%
ATL -1.5: 50.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 1.4 - ATL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 1.4 - ATL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: NYM 27.4% - ATL 72.6% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +265 / ATL -265
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML +144 +214 -9.1%
ATL ML -175 -214 +4.5%
NYM +1.5 -149 +101 -10.1%
ATL -1.5 +123 -101 +5.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -13.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -1.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | July 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Robbie Ray Home: Tomoyuki Sugano
ERA: 3.39 ERA: 4.8
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 7.71 K/9: 5.12
BB/9: 4.05 BB/9: 2.45
FIP: 4.64 FIP: 5.25
IP: 95.7 IP: 84.3
xERA: 4.6 xERA: 7.07
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.397
Pitcher Edge: SF (Robbie Ray)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF COL Lg Avg
Record 36-51 36-53
R/Game 4.05 4.85 4.51
RA/Game 4.82 5.73 4.51
OPS 0.723 0.755 0.720
wOBA 0.308 0.324 0.310
ERA 4.50 5.54 4.20
FIP 4.14 4.62 4.05
WHIP 1.38 1.51 1.31
K/9 7.88 7.17 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.421 0.425 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.66 5.24 4.27
BP FIP 4.39 4.52 4.08
BP WHIP 1.49 1.54
BP K/9 7.66 7.34
BP Quality* 53.7 56.5 46.4
BP IP 291.3 312.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Matt Gage (51 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ryan Walker (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Gabriel Hughes (53 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0192 (Temp: 1.0225 | Wind: 0.9968)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 6.1 - COL 6.3
Simulated Avg: SF 6.1 - COL 6.3
Win Probability: SF 48.5% - COL 51.5%
Fair Moneyline: SF +106 / COL -106
Avg Total Runs: 12.4
Over 12.0: 46.1%
Under 12.0: 46.5%
SF -1.5: 36.2%
COL +1.5: 63.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 3.6 - COL 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 3.6 - COL 3.3
F5 Win Prob: SF 53.3% - COL 46.7% (Tie: 12.9%)
F5 Fair ML: SF -114 / COL +114
F5 Avg Total: 6.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML -132 +106 -8.4%
COL ML +109 -106 +3.7%
SF -1.5 +114 +176 -10.5%
COL +1.5 -137 -176 +6.0%
O 12.0 -110 N/A -6.3%
U 12.0 -110 N/A -5.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | July 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jesús Luzardo Home: Michael Wacha
ERA: 3.88 ERA: 3.31
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 10.73 K/9: 6.96
BB/9: 3.05 BB/9: 2.48
FIP: 2.94 FIP: 3.58
IP: 97.3 IP: 108.7
xERA: 3.23 xERA: 3.93
xwOBA: 0.281 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI KC Lg Avg
Record 49-39 35-53
R/Game 4.48 4.12 4.51
RA/Game 4.42 5.07 4.51
OPS 0.706 0.703 0.720
wOBA 0.304 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.14 4.87 4.20
FIP 3.57 4.56 4.05
WHIP 1.31 1.44 1.31
K/9 9.77 7.78 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.407 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.36 5.64 4.27
BP FIP 3.35 5.20 4.08
BP WHIP 1.38 1.60
BP K/9 10.41 7.80
BP Quality* 44.6 58.4 46.4
BP IP 272.3 320.7
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kyle Backhus (2 of last 3 days)
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 17%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0079 (Temp: 1.0141 | Wind: 0.9939)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.5 - KC 3.6
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.5 - KC 3.6
Win Probability: PHI 59.6% - KC 40.4%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -147 / KC +147
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 9.0: 34.1%
Under 9.0: 57.0%
PHI -1.5: 42.5%
KC +1.5: 57.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.1 - KC 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.1 - KC 1.8
F5 Win Prob: PHI 56.4% - KC 43.6% (Tie: 19.1%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -129 / KC +129
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -156 -147 -1.4%
KC ML +129 +147 -3.2%
PHI -1.5 +104 +135 -6.5%
KC +1.5 -126 -135 +1.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -18.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +4.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | July 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sonny Gray Home: Sam Aldegheri
ERA: 2.69 ERA: 4.85
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 8.07 K/9: 6.07
BB/9: 2.26 BB/9: 3.94
FIP: 3.46 FIP: 4.82
IP: 83.7 IP: 29.7
xERA: 3.61 xERA: 5.06
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.345
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Sonny Gray)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS LAA Lg Avg
Record 38-48 36-53
R/Game 3.98 4.42 4.51
RA/Game 4.02 4.97 4.51
OPS 0.696 0.707 0.720
wOBA 0.302 0.306 0.310
ERA 3.79 4.60 4.20
FIP 3.76 4.14 4.05
WHIP 1.26 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.65 9.04 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.495 0.446 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.99 4.58 4.27
BP FIP 3.92 4.27 4.08
BP WHIP 1.34 1.43
BP K/9 8.59 9.66
BP Quality* 44.6 50.5 46.4
BP IP 254.7 304.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mitch Farris (31 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9863 (Temp: 1.0037 | Wind: 0.9826)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 4.3 - LAA 3.9
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.3 - LAA 3.9
Win Probability: BOS 54.4% - LAA 45.6%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -120 / LAA +120
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.5: 43.6%
Under 8.5: 56.4%
BOS -1.5: 37.2%
LAA +1.5: 62.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.4 - LAA 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.4 - LAA 2.0
F5 Win Prob: BOS 58.5% - LAA 41.5% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -141 / LAA +141
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -171 -120 -8.6%
LAA ML +141 +120 +4.1%
BOS -1.5 +100 +169 -12.8%
LAA +1.5 -121 -169 +8.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +4.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (Run Line) [-121]
Model: 62.8% | Market: 54.8% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: -169 | Kelly: 4.43%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00897
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Athletics
Regular Season | July 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sandy Alcantara Home: Aaron Civale
ERA: 4.2 ERA: 4.92
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.57
K/9: 6.54 K/9: 6.38
BB/9: 2.49 BB/9: 2.66
FIP: 3.83 FIP: 5.26
IP: 115.7 IP: 67.7
xERA: 3.9 xERA: 5.33
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.353
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Sandy Alcantara)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA ATH Lg Avg
Record 47-42 41-47
R/Game 4.52 4.61 4.51
RA/Game 4.31 5.36 4.51
OPS 0.728 0.738 0.720
wOBA 0.314 0.317 0.310
ERA 4.08 5.04 4.20
FIP 3.83 4.69 4.05
WHIP 1.25 1.45 1.31
K/9 8.57 8.52 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.521 0.432 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.24 5.46 4.27
BP FIP 3.55 4.59 4.08
BP WHIP 1.23 1.53
BP K/9 9.53 9.47
BP Quality* 47.4 55.5 46.4
BP IP 258.7 314.7
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John King (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mason Barnett (45 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9789 (Temp: 0.9882 | Wind: 0.9905)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 5.5 - ATH 4.6
Simulated Avg: MIA 5.5 - ATH 4.6
Win Probability: MIA 57.2% - ATH 42.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -134 / ATH +134
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 11.0: 35.7%
Under 11.0: 56.4%
MIA -1.5: 42.6%
ATH +1.5: 57.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 3.1 - ATH 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 3.1 - ATH 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIA 59.5% - ATH 40.5% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -147 / ATH +147
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML -131 -134 +0.5%
ATH ML +108 +134 -5.3%
MIA -1.5 +119 +135 -3.0%
ATH +1.5 -143 -135 -1.5%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -16.7%
U 11.0 -110 N/A +4.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | July 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brandon Woodruff Home: Merrill Kelly
ERA: 2.59 ERA: 5.84
WHIP: 0.84 WHIP: 1.53
K/9: 8.86 K/9: 5.18
BB/9: 1.94 BB/9: 3.64
FIP: 3.03 FIP: 6.03
IP: 41.7 IP: 81.7
xERA: 2.84 xERA: 7.57
xwOBA: 0.264 xwOBA: 0.408
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Brandon Woodruff)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL ARI Lg Avg
Record 54-32 43-44
R/Game 5.15 4.26 4.51
RA/Game 3.67 4.60 4.51
OPS 0.734 0.692 0.720
wOBA 0.315 0.299 0.310
ERA 3.35 4.31 4.20
FIP 3.41 4.38 4.05
WHIP 1.18 1.29 1.31
K/9 9.89 6.92 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.650 0.466 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.63 3.82 4.27
BP FIP 3.68 3.73 4.08
BP WHIP 1.32 1.19
BP K/9 9.02 7.77
BP Quality* 49.7 48.2 46.4
BP IP 295.3 266.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Grant Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Ryan Thompson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 6.8 - ARI 3.7
Simulated Avg: MIL 6.8 - ARI 3.7
Win Probability: MIL 75.6% - ARI 24.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -310 / ARI +310
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 9.5: 55.1%
Under 9.5: 44.9%
MIL -1.5: 62.8%
ARI +1.5: 37.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 4.4 - ARI 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 4.4 - ARI 1.6
F5 Win Prob: MIL 84.3% - ARI 15.7% (Tie: 10.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -539 / ARI +539
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -156 -310 +14.7%
ARI ML +129 +310 -19.3%
MIL -1.5 +104 -169 +13.8%
ARI +1.5 -126 +169 -18.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +2.7%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -7.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Milwaukee Brewers (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -156 | Edge: 14.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00898
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | July 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Griffin Canning Home: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
ERA: 7.09 ERA: 2.67
WHIP: 1.66 WHIP: 0.89
K/9: 8.81 K/9: 8.29
BB/9: 5.36 BB/9: 1.75
FIP: 5.14 FIP: 3.3
IP: 47.0 IP: 97.7
xERA: 5.06 xERA: 3.53
xwOBA: 0.345 xwOBA: 0.293
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Yoshinobu Yamamoto)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD LAD Lg Avg
Record 43-44 58-31
R/Game 3.94 5.37 4.51
RA/Game 4.43 3.54 4.51
OPS 0.676 0.793 0.720
wOBA 0.292 0.338 0.310
ERA 4.25 3.51 4.20
FIP 4.09 3.67 4.05
WHIP 1.35 1.13 1.31
K/9 8.32 9.03 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.447 0.682 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.80 3.89 4.27
BP FIP 3.71 3.53 4.08
BP WHIP 1.25 1.26
BP K/9 9.75 9.84
BP Quality* 42.1 44.7 46.4
BP IP 270.3 289.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9901 (Temp: 0.9945 | Wind: 0.9956)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 3.1 - LAD 6.1
Simulated Avg: SD 3.1 - LAD 6.1
Win Probability: SD 23.4% - LAD 76.6%
Fair Moneyline: SD +327 / LAD -327
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.5: 53.3%
Under 8.5: 46.7%
SD +1.5: 37.8%
LAD -1.5: 62.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 1.6 - LAD 3.9
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.6 - LAD 3.9
F5 Win Prob: SD 19.2% - LAD 80.8% (Tie: 12.3%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +420 / LAD -420
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML +209 +327 -9.0%
LAD ML -259 -327 +4.5%
SD +1.5 -103 +164 -12.9%
LAD -1.5 -117 -164 +8.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -5.7%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (Run Line) [-117]
Model: 62.2% | Market: 53.9% | Edge: 8.2%
Fair ML: -164 | Kelly: 4.48%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00899