2026-07-05
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-05
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | July 05, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nolan McLean Home: Martín Pérez
ERA: 3.78 ERA: 3.27
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 10.67 K/9: 7.13
BB/9: 3.4 BB/9: 3.51
FIP: 3.23 FIP: 4.2
IP: 95.3 IP: 77.0
xERA: 3.46 xERA: 4.36
xwOBA: 0.29 xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM ATL Lg Avg
Record 36-53 52-35
R/Game 3.96 4.85 4.51
RA/Game 4.65 3.74 4.51
OPS 0.673 0.723 0.720
wOBA 0.291 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.25 3.46 4.21
FIP 3.83 3.87 4.06
WHIP 1.29 1.21 1.31
K/9 9.20 8.65 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.426 0.617 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.34 2.90 4.28
BP FIP 3.67 3.39 4.08
BP WHIP 1.17 1.09
BP K/9 9.32 8.90
BP Quality* 42.8 39.4 46.5
BP IP 231.7 258.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Joey Gerber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Austin Warren (44 pitches yesterday)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JR Ritchie (46 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 3.6 - ATL 4.3
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.6 - ATL 4.3
Win Probability: NYM 42.5% - ATL 57.5%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +135 / ATL -135
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 9.0: 33.0%
Under 9.0: 58.1%
NYM -1.5: 26.2%
ATL +1.5: 73.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.1 - ATL 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.1 - ATL 2.3
F5 Win Prob: NYM 47.4% - ATL 52.6% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +111 / ATL -111
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML -102 +135 -8.0%
ATL ML -118 -135 +3.4%
NYM -1.5 +159 +281 -12.4%
ATL +1.5 -194 -281 +7.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -19.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +5.7%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Atlanta Braves +1.5 (Run Line) [-194]
Model: 73.8% | Market: 66.0% | Edge: 7.8%
Fair ML: -281 | Kelly: 5.71%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00900
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | July 05, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bubba Chandler Home: Cade Cavalli
ERA: 4.62 ERA: 3.69
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 8.3 K/9: 10.16
BB/9: 5.04 BB/9: 2.89
FIP: 4.3 FIP: 2.81
IP: 85.7 IP: 90.3
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 4.13
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Cade Cavalli)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT WSH Lg Avg
Record 45-45 46-44
R/Game 5.16 5.33 4.51
RA/Game 4.86 5.17 4.51
OPS 0.760 0.751 0.720
wOBA 0.329 0.321 0.310
ERA 4.27 4.66 4.21
FIP 3.78 4.50 4.06
WHIP 1.31 1.39 1.31
K/9 9.24 7.91 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.527 0.515 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 5.85 4.28
BP FIP 4.18 4.93 4.08
BP WHIP 1.43 1.59
BP K/9 9.48 8.45
BP Quality* 50.0 60.6 46.5
BP IP 251.7 309.0
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Riley Cornelio (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Zack Littell (87 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 5.1 - WSH 5.6
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.1 - WSH 5.6
Win Probability: PIT 45.4% - WSH 54.6%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +120 / WSH -120
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 9.5: 56.4%
Under 9.5: 43.6%
PIT +1.5: 59.7%
WSH -1.5: 40.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 2.3 - WSH 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.3 - WSH 3.0
F5 Win Prob: PIT 39.0% - WSH 61.0% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +157 / WSH -157
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML +113 +120 -1.6%
WSH ML -136 -120 -3.0%
PIT +1.5 -175 -148 -3.9%
WSH -1.5 +144 +148 -0.7%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +4.0%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -8.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | July 05, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Bradish Home: Nick Lodolo
ERA: 3.77 ERA: 5.05
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 9.29 K/9: 7.32
BB/9: 4.55 BB/9: 3.83
FIP: 4.09 FIP: 4.76
IP: 93.0 IP: 51.7
xERA: 3.99 xERA: 6.11
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.374
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Kyle Bradish)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL CIN Lg Avg
Record 42-48 40-48
R/Game 4.60 4.19 4.51
RA/Game 4.90 4.89 4.51
OPS 0.715 0.699 0.720
wOBA 0.310 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.35 4.60 4.21
FIP 4.12 4.83 4.06
WHIP 1.38 1.46 1.31
K/9 8.09 8.14 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.471 0.430 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.15 4.97 4.28
BP FIP 3.95 5.05 4.08
BP WHIP 1.29 1.50
BP K/9 8.76 8.44
BP Quality* 47.8 59.2 46.5
BP IP 314.3 340.3
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rhett Lowder (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 6.1 - CIN 4.5
Simulated Avg: BAL 6.1 - CIN 4.5
Win Probability: BAL 63.7% - CIN 36.3%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -175 / CIN +175
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 9.5: 55.7%
Under 9.5: 44.3%
BAL -1.5: 49.7%
CIN +1.5: 50.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 3.4 - CIN 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 3.4 - CIN 2.4
F5 Win Prob: BAL 65.1% - CIN 34.9% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -187 / CIN +187
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML -110 -175 +11.3%
CIN ML -110 +175 -16.1%
BAL -1.5 +143 +101 +8.6%
CIN +1.5 -174 -101 -13.2%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +3.3%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -8.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Baltimore Orioles (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00901
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | July 05, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Joe Ryan Home: Ryan Weathers
ERA: 3.61 ERA: 4.08
WHIP: 1.08 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 10.45 K/9: 9.98
BB/9: 2.03 BB/9: 2.55
FIP: 2.79 FIP: 4.09
IP: 97.3 IP: 88.3
xERA: 3.21 xERA: 4.64
xwOBA: 0.28 xwOBA: 0.332
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Joe Ryan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN NYY Lg Avg
Record 43-47 49-39
R/Game 4.91 4.84 4.51
RA/Game 5.16 3.90 4.51
OPS 0.738 0.741 0.720
wOBA 0.318 0.317 0.310
ERA 4.82 3.39 4.21
FIP 4.22 3.61 4.06
WHIP 1.40 1.19 1.31
K/9 8.34 8.85 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.478 0.598 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.13 3.25 4.28
BP FIP 4.36 3.66 4.08
BP WHIP 1.52 1.21
BP K/9 7.87 8.48
BP Quality* 53.7 43.0 46.5
BP IP 340.7 313.0
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Marco Raya (35 pitches yesterday)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryan Yarbrough (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0462 (Temp: 1.0209 | Wind: 1.0248)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 4.9 - NYY 4.7
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.9 - NYY 4.7
Win Probability: MIN 51.5% - NYY 48.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -106 / NYY +106
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.5: 57.2%
Under 8.5: 42.8%
MIN +1.5: 66.8%
NYY -1.5: 33.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 2.9 - NYY 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.9 - NYY 2.1
F5 Win Prob: MIN 62.2% - NYY 37.8% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -165 / NYY +165
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML +109 -106 +3.7%
NYY ML -131 +106 -8.2%
MIN +1.5 -192 -201 +1.1%
NYY -1.5 +157 +201 -5.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +4.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -9.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | July 05, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chris Murphy Home: Tanner Bibee
ERA: 3.79 ERA: 3.69
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 8.53 K/9: 7.3
BB/9: 4.74 BB/9: 2.55
FIP: 3.47 FIP: 4.49
IP: 19.0 IP: 102.3
xERA: 3.23 xERA: 4.51
xwOBA: 0.281 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Chris Murphy)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
Record 46-42 47-43
R/Game 4.78 3.96 4.51
RA/Game 4.50 4.04 4.51
OPS 0.736 0.677 0.720
wOBA 0.315 0.295 0.310
ERA 4.21 3.76 4.21
FIP 4.07 3.83 4.06
WHIP 1.33 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.58 9.21 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.528 0.490 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 3.83 4.28
BP FIP 4.45 3.62 4.08
BP WHIP 1.36 1.32
BP K/9 8.27 10.31
BP Quality* 55.5 46.7 46.5
BP IP 253.7 296.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sean Newcomb (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Shawn Armstrong (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 55%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0314 (Temp: 1.0078 | Wind: 1.0235)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 4.8 - CLE 4.3
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.8 - CLE 4.2
Win Probability: CWS 54.9% - CLE 45.1%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -122 / CLE +122
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.5: 51.9%
Under 8.5: 48.1%
CWS +1.5: 70.3%
CLE -1.5: 29.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.7 - CLE 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.7 - CLE 2.1
F5 Win Prob: CWS 59.4% - CLE 40.6% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -146 / CLE +146
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +119 -122 +9.2%
CLE ML -144 +122 -13.9%
CWS +1.5 -171 -237 +7.3%
CLE -1.5 +141 +237 -11.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -0.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Chicago White Sox +1.5 (Run Line) [-171]
Model: 70.3% | Market: 63.1% | Edge: 7.2%
Fair ML: -237 | Kelly: 4.91%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00902
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | July 05, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Matthew Liberatore Home: Javier Assad
ERA: 5.33 ERA: 4.53
WHIP: 1.55 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 8.6 K/9: 5.4
BB/9: 3.59 BB/9: 2.26
FIP: 5.06 FIP: 5.17
IP: 82.7 IP: 51.7
xERA: 5.55 xERA: 4.86
xwOBA: 0.359 xwOBA: 0.339
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL CHC Lg Avg
Record 47-39 49-40
R/Game 4.64 5.04 4.51
RA/Game 4.47 4.55 4.51
OPS 0.722 0.749 0.720
wOBA 0.312 0.324 0.310
ERA 4.14 4.36 4.21
FIP 4.06 4.61 4.06
WHIP 1.33 1.27 1.31
K/9 7.58 7.95 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.518 0.547 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.24 4.36 4.28
BP FIP 4.11 4.82 4.08
BP WHIP 1.37 1.35
BP K/9 7.95 7.91
BP Quality* 51.4 50.2 46.5
BP IP 325.0 334.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9757 (Temp: 0.9963 | Wind: 0.9793)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 5.2 - CHC 6.2
Simulated Avg: STL 5.2 - CHC 6.2
Win Probability: STL 41.6% - CHC 58.4%
Fair Moneyline: STL +140 / CHC -140
Avg Total Runs: 11.5
Over 8.0: 69.4%
Under 8.0: 23.6%
STL +1.5: 55.3%
CHC -1.5: 44.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 3.0 - CHC 3.6
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 3.0 - CHC 3.6
F5 Win Prob: STL 42.3% - CHC 57.7% (Tie: 12.8%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +137 / CHC -137
F5 Avg Total: 6.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +123 +140 -3.3%
CHC ML -149 -140 -1.4%
STL +1.5 -172 -124 -7.9%
CHC -1.5 +142 +124 +3.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +17.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -28.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 17.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00903
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | July 05, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Aaron Nola Home: Luinder Avila
ERA: 6.04 ERA: 5.4
WHIP: 1.49 WHIP: 1.67
K/9: 9.21 K/9: 8.29
BB/9: 3.07 BB/9: 5.79
FIP: 4.98 FIP: 4.58
IP: 85.0 IP: 46.7
xERA: 4.48 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: KC (Luinder Avila)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI KC Lg Avg
Record 50-39 35-54
R/Game 4.49 4.09 4.51
RA/Game 4.38 5.08 4.51
OPS 0.710 0.699 0.720
wOBA 0.305 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.11 4.88 4.21
FIP 3.53 4.59 4.06
WHIP 1.31 1.44 1.31
K/9 9.83 7.78 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.512 0.402 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.33 5.64 4.28
BP FIP 3.32 5.19 4.08
BP WHIP 1.37 1.61
BP K/9 10.50 7.76
BP Quality* 45.7 58.4 46.5
BP IP 274.3 323.7
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0141 (Temp: 1.0284 | Wind: 0.9861)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 5.2 - KC 4.7
Simulated Avg: PHI 5.2 - KC 4.7
Win Probability: PHI 54.9% - KC 45.1%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -122 / KC +122
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 10.0: 42.2%
Under 10.0: 49.4%
PHI -1.5: 40.3%
KC +1.5: 59.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.8 - KC 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.8 - KC 2.8
F5 Win Prob: PHI 50.4% - KC 49.6% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -102 / KC +102
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -143 -122 -3.9%
KC ML +119 +122 -0.6%
PHI -1.5 +113 +148 -6.6%
KC +1.5 -136 -148 +2.1%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -10.1%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -2.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | July 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Peter Lambert
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB HOU Lg Avg
Record 52-34 44-47
R/Game 4.60 4.52 4.51
RA/Game 4.17 5.02 4.51
OPS 0.738 0.726 0.720
wOBA 0.318 0.310 0.310
ERA 3.76 4.78 4.21
FIP 4.06 4.62 4.06
WHIP 1.18 1.39 1.31
K/9 7.90 8.77 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.545 0.452 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.16 4.47 4.28
BP FIP 4.24 4.51 4.08
BP WHIP 1.26 1.35
BP K/9 7.86 8.73
BP Quality* 50.6 50.6 46.5
BP IP 316.0 338.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cristian Javier (39 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0326 (Temp: 1.0376 | Wind: 0.9952)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.6 - HOU 4.9
Simulated Avg: TB 4.6 - HOU 4.9
Win Probability: TB 46.5% - HOU 53.5%
Fair Moneyline: TB +115 / HOU -115
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 9.0: 47.3%
Under 9.0: 43.9%
TB -1.5: 31.9%
HOU +1.5: 68.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.4 - HOU 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.4 - HOU 2.6
F5 Win Prob: TB 46.9% - HOU 53.1% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +113 / HOU -113
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -105 +115 -4.7%
HOU ML -114 -115 +0.2%
TB -1.5 +152 +213 -7.8%
HOU +1.5 -185 -213 +3.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -5.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -8.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | July 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Casey Mize Home: Kumar Rocker
ERA: 2.63 ERA: 3.83
WHIP: 0.97 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 9.42 K/9: 7.88
BB/9: 1.94 BB/9: 3.49
FIP: 2.45 FIP: 3.81
IP: 65.0 IP: 80.0
xERA: 2.82 xERA: 4.51
xwOBA: 0.263 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: DET (Casey Mize)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET TEX Lg Avg
Record 39-50 45-44
R/Game 4.19 4.09 4.51
RA/Game 4.10 4.15 4.51
OPS 0.710 0.713 0.720
wOBA 0.308 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.77 3.97 4.21
FIP 3.78 3.93 4.06
WHIP 1.23 1.23 1.31
K/9 8.35 8.68 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.510 0.494 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.20 4.25 4.28
BP FIP 4.11 4.22 4.08
BP WHIP 1.37 1.26
BP K/9 8.59 7.80
BP Quality* 48.0 49.3 46.5
BP IP 323.7 245.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Keider Montero (36 pitches yesterday)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ben Peoples (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 99°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 17%
Conditions: Hot (99°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0336 (Temp: 1.0404 | Wind: 0.9936)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 4.5 - TEX 3.6
Simulated Avg: DET 4.5 - TEX 3.6
Win Probability: DET 58.9% - TEX 41.1%
Fair Moneyline: DET -143 / TEX +143
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.0: 43.5%
Under 8.0: 46.8%
DET -1.5: 41.8%
TEX +1.5: 58.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 2.4 - TEX 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.4 - TEX 1.6
F5 Win Prob: DET 66.4% - TEX 33.6% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -197 / TEX +197
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -129 -143 +2.6%
TEX ML +107 +143 -7.2%
DET -1.5 +128 +139 -2.0%
TEX +1.5 -155 -139 -2.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -8.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | July 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tyler Mahle Home: Tanner Gordon
ERA: 5.67 ERA: 6.69
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 1.59
K/9: 8.64 K/9: 8.7
BB/9: 3.92 BB/9: 1.79
FIP: 4.82 FIP: 4.02
IP: 66.7 IP: 40.3
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 4.67
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: COL (Tanner Gordon)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF COL Lg Avg
Record 37-51 36-54
R/Game 4.07 4.84 4.51
RA/Game 4.81 5.73 4.51
OPS 0.727 0.753 0.720
wOBA 0.309 0.324 0.310
ERA 4.49 5.54 4.21
FIP 4.15 4.61 4.06
WHIP 1.38 1.52 1.31
K/9 7.87 7.18 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.424 0.424 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.65 5.31 4.28
BP FIP 4.37 4.47 4.08
BP WHIP 1.48 1.54
BP K/9 7.67 7.53
BP Quality* 50.5 53.5 46.5
BP IP 294.3 324.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 96°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (96°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0395 (Temp: 1.0354 | Wind: 1.0040)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 5.5 - COL 6.7
Simulated Avg: SF 5.5 - COL 6.7
Win Probability: SF 41.0% - COL 59.0%
Fair Moneyline: SF +144 / COL -144
Avg Total Runs: 12.2
Over 13.0: 38.2%
Under 13.0: 54.9%
SF -1.5: 29.1%
COL +1.5: 70.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 3.1 - COL 3.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 3.1 - COL 3.7
F5 Win Prob: SF 42.3% - COL 57.7% (Tie: 12.6%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +137 / COL -137
F5 Avg Total: 6.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML -120 +144 -13.6%
COL ML -101 -144 +8.8%
SF -1.5 +119 +243 -16.5%
COL +1.5 -143 -243 +12.0%
O 13.0 -110 N/A -14.2%
U 13.0 -110 N/A +2.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -143 | Edge: 12.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00904
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | July 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brandon Sproat Home: Eduardo Rodriguez
ERA: 5.28 ERA: 2.21
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 9.6 K/9: 6.26
BB/9: 4.08 BB/9: 3.35
FIP: 4.75 FIP: 3.97
IP: 75.0 IP: 102.0
xERA: 4.64 xERA: 4.9
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.34
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Eduardo Rodriguez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL ARI Lg Avg
Record 54-33 44-44
R/Game 5.13 4.26 4.51
RA/Game 3.68 4.58 4.51
OPS 0.736 0.690 0.720
wOBA 0.316 0.298 0.310
ERA 3.36 4.30 4.21
FIP 3.41 4.38 4.06
WHIP 1.18 1.30 1.31
K/9 9.89 6.95 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.647 0.467 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.60 3.80 4.28
BP FIP 3.66 3.74 4.08
BP WHIP 1.31 1.19
BP K/9 8.98 7.79
BP Quality* 45.0 48.1 46.5
BP IP 299.7 270.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jared Koenig (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 4.9 - ARI 4.7
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.9 - ARI 4.7
Win Probability: MIL 51.2% - ARI 48.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -105 / ARI +105
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 9.0: 48.0%
Under 9.0: 43.0%
MIL -1.5: 36.3%
ARI +1.5: 63.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.6 - ARI 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.6 - ARI 2.8
F5 Win Prob: MIL 47.1% - ARI 52.9% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +112 / ARI -112
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -122 -105 -3.8%
ARI ML +101 +105 -0.9%
MIL -1.5 +129 +176 -7.4%
ARI +1.5 -155 -176 +2.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -4.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -9.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Athletics
Regular Season | July 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Eury Pérez Home: Gage Jump
ERA: 4.21 ERA: 2.93
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 10.03 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 3.96 BB/9: 2.25
FIP: 4.52 FIP: 2.5
IP: 72.7 IP: 40.0
xERA: 4.7 xERA: 3.56
xwOBA: 0.334 xwOBA: 0.294
Pitcher Edge: ATH (Gage Jump)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA ATH Lg Avg
Record 48-42 41-48
R/Game 4.54 4.58 4.51
RA/Game 4.29 5.38 4.51
OPS 0.732 0.737 0.720
wOBA 0.316 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.06 5.07 4.21
FIP 3.80 4.72 4.06
WHIP 1.25 1.46 1.31
K/9 8.58 8.50 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.526 0.427 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.26 5.47 4.28
BP FIP 3.54 4.64 4.08
BP WHIP 1.24 1.55
BP K/9 9.53 9.37
BP Quality* 46.0 57.4 46.5
BP IP 259.7 319.0
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kade Morris (68 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: José Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9766 (Temp: 0.9956 | Wind: 0.9809)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 4.1 - ATH 4.9
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.1 - ATH 4.9
Win Probability: MIA 42.5% - ATH 57.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +135 / ATH -135
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 10.0: 34.7%
Under 10.0: 57.1%
MIA -1.5: 27.9%
ATH +1.5: 72.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 1.8 - ATH 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.8 - ATH 2.8
F5 Win Prob: MIA 33.2% - ATH 66.8% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +201 / ATH -201
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +100 +135 -7.5%
ATH ML -120 -135 +2.9%
MIA -1.5 +149 +259 -12.3%
ATH +1.5 -181 -259 +7.7%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -17.7%
U 10.0 -110 N/A +4.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Athletics +1.5 (Run Line) [-181]
Model: 72.1% | Market: 64.4% | Edge: 7.7%
Fair ML: -259 | Kelly: 5.43%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00905
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | July 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Trey Yesavage Home: Emerson Hancock
ERA: 3.34 ERA: 3.47
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.05
K/9: 8.15 K/9: 8.64
BB/9: 4.01 BB/9: 2.18
FIP: 3.78 FIP: 3.63
IP: 67.3 IP: 90.7
xERA: 3.19 xERA: 4.48
xwOBA: 0.279 xwOBA: 0.327
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR SEA Lg Avg
Record 42-47 46-44
R/Game 4.00 4.09 4.51
RA/Game 4.43 3.83 4.51
OPS 0.692 0.694 0.720
wOBA 0.298 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.12 3.59 4.21
FIP 3.96 3.29 4.06
WHIP 1.31 1.17 1.31
K/9 8.99 8.81 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.454 0.529 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.50 3.42 4.28
BP FIP 3.36 3.36 4.08
BP WHIP 1.28 1.32
BP K/9 9.16 8.76
BP Quality* 41.4 40.1 46.5
BP IP 288.0 247.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Adam Macko (33 pitches yesterday)
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0458 (Temp: 1.0003 | Wind: 1.0455)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 3.5 - SEA 3.5
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.5 - SEA 3.5
Win Probability: TOR 49.4% - SEA 50.6%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +103 / SEA -103
Avg Total Runs: 6.9
Over 7.5: 41.2%
Under 7.5: 58.8%
TOR +1.5: 68.3%
SEA -1.5: 31.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.0 - SEA 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.0 - SEA 1.9
F5 Win Prob: TOR 52.6% - SEA 47.4% (Tie: 19.3%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -111 / SEA +111
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML +109 +103 +1.5%
SEA ML -131 -103 -6.1%
TOR +1.5 -198 -215 +1.9%
SEA -1.5 +162 +215 -6.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -11.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +6.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | July 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: JP Sears Home: Emmet Sheehan
ERA: 6.97 ERA: 5.08
WHIP: 1.74 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 7.84 K/9: 10.03
BB/9: 4.35 BB/9: 2.72
FIP: 7.86 FIP: 4.46
IP: 10.3 IP: 72.7
xERA: 7.91 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.415 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Emmet Sheehan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD LAD Lg Avg
Record 43-45 59-31
R/Game 3.90 5.34 4.51
RA/Game 4.41 3.50 4.51
OPS 0.673 0.791 0.720
wOBA 0.291 0.338 0.310
ERA 4.24 3.47 4.21
FIP 4.09 3.64 4.06
WHIP 1.35 1.12 1.31
K/9 8.32 9.08 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.444 0.685 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.82 3.87 4.28
BP FIP 3.73 3.51 4.08
BP WHIP 1.24 1.26
BP K/9 9.75 9.87
BP Quality* 45.1 49.0 46.5
BP IP 273.3 291.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kyle Hart (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Griffin Canning (73 pitches yesterday)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Will Klein (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Stewart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9997 (Temp: 1.0076 | Wind: 0.9921)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.9 - LAD 6.0
Simulated Avg: SD 3.9 - LAD 6.0
Win Probability: SD 31.1% - LAD 68.9%
Fair Moneyline: SD +221 / LAD -221
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 9.5: 50.7%
Under 9.5: 49.3%
SD +1.5: 45.6%
LAD -1.5: 54.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.2 - LAD 3.7
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.2 - LAD 3.7
F5 Win Prob: SD 29.7% - LAD 70.3% (Tie: 13.3%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +237 / LAD -237
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +169 +221 -6.0%
LAD ML -207 -221 +1.4%
SD +1.5 -117 +119 -8.3%
LAD -1.5 -103 -119 +3.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -1.7%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -3.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | July 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ranger Suarez Home: Ryan Johnson
ERA: 2.94 ERA: 7.4
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 1.52
K/9: 9.34 K/9: 6.66
BB/9: 2.64 BB/9: 3.33
FIP: 2.64 FIP: 5.94
IP: 88.7 IP: 24.3
xERA: 3.28 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.283 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS LAA Lg Avg
Record 39-48 36-54
R/Game 4.02 4.38 4.51
RA/Game 3.99 5.00 4.51
OPS 0.697 0.705 0.720
wOBA 0.302 0.305 0.310
ERA 3.76 4.64 4.21
FIP 3.76 4.17 4.06
WHIP 1.25 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.66 9.00 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.504 0.439 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.96 4.50 4.28
BP FIP 3.93 4.29 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.42
BP K/9 8.52 9.52
BP Quality* 44.4 51.7 46.5
BP IP 256.7 301.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Samy Natera Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Suter (37 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9910 (Temp: 1.0062 | Wind: 0.9849)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 5.0 - LAA 3.6
Simulated Avg: BOS 5.0 - LAA 3.6
Win Probability: BOS 63.6% - LAA 36.4%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -174 / LAA +174
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.0: 47.5%
Under 8.0: 42.8%
BOS -1.5: 47.4%
LAA +1.5: 52.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 3.0 - LAA 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 3.0 - LAA 1.7
F5 Win Prob: BOS 71.6% - LAA 28.4% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -252 / LAA +252
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML -163 -174 +1.6%
LAA ML +135 +174 -6.1%
BOS -1.5 +104 +111 -1.6%
LAA +1.5 -125 -111 -3.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -4.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -9.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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