2026-07-06
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-06
Games: 8 | Plays: 2
======================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | July 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cristopher Sánchez Home: Noah Cameron
ERA: 2.0 ERA: 4.95
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 10.46 K/9: 8.07
BB/9: 1.77 BB/9: 2.69
FIP: 2.25 FIP: 3.76
IP: 117.0 IP: 83.7
xERA: 2.91 xERA: 4.9
xwOBA: 0.267 xwOBA: 0.34
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI KC Lg Avg
Record 50-40 36-54
R/Game 4.47 4.10 4.52
RA/Game 4.39 5.04 4.51
OPS 0.707 0.698 0.720
wOBA 0.304 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.12 4.84 4.21
FIP 3.51 4.56 4.06
WHIP 1.30 1.43 1.31
K/9 9.82 7.77 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.508 0.406 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.38 5.58 4.27
BP FIP 3.33 5.16 4.07
BP WHIP 1.38 1.60
BP K/9 10.49 7.75
BP Quality* 43.1 58.0 46.4
BP IP 275.3 327.7
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.9 - KC 3.0
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.9 - KC 3.0
Win Probability: PHI 70.0% - KC 30.0%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -234 / KC +234
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 8.5: 41.1%
Under 8.5: 58.9%
PHI -1.5: 53.1%
KC +1.5: 46.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.6 - KC 1.3
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.6 - KC 1.3
F5 Win Prob: PHI 74.0% - KC 26.0% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -284 / KC +284
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -205 -234 +2.8%
KC ML +168 +234 -7.3%
PHI -1.5 -123 -113 -2.1%
KC +1.5 +102 +113 -2.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -11.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +6.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | July 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cam Schlittler Home: Griffin Jax
ERA: 2.08 ERA: 3.45
WHIP: 0.96 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 10.64 K/9: 8.7
BB/9: 1.82 BB/9: 3.0
FIP: 2.59 FIP: 4.55
IP: 104.0 IP: 60.0
xERA: 3.14 xERA: 5.37
xwOBA: 0.277 xwOBA: 0.354
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY TB Lg Avg
Record 49-40 52-35
R/Game 4.80 4.55 4.52
RA/Game 3.92 4.15 4.51
OPS 0.737 0.734 0.720
wOBA 0.316 0.316 0.310
ERA 3.39 3.75 4.21
FIP 3.59 4.05 4.06
WHIP 1.20 1.18 1.31
K/9 8.87 7.96 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.591 0.542 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.20 4.11 4.27
BP FIP 3.64 4.23 4.07
BP WHIP 1.22 1.25
BP K/9 8.46 8.00
BP Quality* 47.3 48.7 46.4
BP IP 318.0 324.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Camilo Doval (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.8 - TB 3.5
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.8 - TB 3.5
Win Probability: NYY 63.2% - TB 36.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -172 / TB +172
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.5: 55.3%
Under 7.5: 44.7%
NYY -1.5: 46.1%
TB +1.5: 53.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.8 - TB 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.7 - TB 1.5
F5 Win Prob: NYY 71.1% - TB 28.9% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -246 / TB +246
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -105 -172 +12.0%
TB ML -115 +172 -16.7%
NYY -1.5 +163 +117 +8.1%
TB +1.5 -198 -117 -12.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +2.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -7.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] New York Yankees (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -105 | Edge: 11.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00906
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | July 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Mike Burrows Home: Miles Mikolas
ERA: 5.58 ERA: 5.44
WHIP: 1.51 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 7.17 K/9: 5.02
BB/9: 3.29 BB/9: 1.81
FIP: 5.34 FIP: 5.37
IP: 90.3 IP: 84.3
xERA: 4.64 xERA: 4.8
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU WSH Lg Avg
Record 45-47 46-45
R/Game 4.49 5.33 4.52
RA/Game 4.97 5.23 4.51
OPS 0.725 0.753 0.720
wOBA 0.310 0.322 0.310
ERA 4.72 4.72 4.21
FIP 4.59 4.52 4.06
WHIP 1.38 1.39 1.31
K/9 8.78 7.93 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.454 0.509 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.43 5.94 4.27
BP FIP 4.49 4.93 4.07
BP WHIP 1.34 1.59
BP K/9 8.73 8.49
BP Quality* 53.3 62.4 46.4
BP IP 341.3 315.0
Bullpen Edge: HOU (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brad Lord (50 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Justin Lawrence (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 28%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0491 (Temp: 1.0280 | Wind: 1.0205)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 5.8 - WSH 6.7
Simulated Avg: HOU 5.8 - WSH 6.7
Win Probability: HOU 42.8% - WSH 57.2%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +134 / WSH -134
Avg Total Runs: 12.4
Over 10.0: 61.0%
Under 10.0: 32.0%
HOU +1.5: 55.6%
WSH -1.5: 44.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 3.1 - WSH 3.8
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 3.1 - WSH 3.8
F5 Win Prob: HOU 41.6% - WSH 58.4% (Tie: 12.6%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +140 / WSH -140
F5 Avg Total: 6.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML -101 +134 -7.5%
WSH ML -120 -134 +2.7%
HOU +1.5 -192 -125 -10.1%
WSH -1.5 +157 +125 +5.4%
O 10.0 -110 N/A +8.6%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -20.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 10.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.6%
Fair ML: -156 | Kelly: 4.53%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00907
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | July 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Freddy Peralta Home: Reynaldo López
ERA: 4.81 ERA: 3.31
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 8.69 K/9: 8.01
BB/9: 3.59 BB/9: 3.83
FIP: 4.14 FIP: 4.11
IP: 95.3 IP: 51.7
xERA: 3.77 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.302 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM ATL Lg Avg
Record 37-53 52-36
R/Game 4.02 4.90 4.52
RA/Game 4.70 3.81 4.51
OPS 0.677 0.725 0.720
wOBA 0.293 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.29 3.53 4.21
FIP 3.81 3.90 4.06
WHIP 1.29 1.22 1.31
K/9 9.22 8.61 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.429 0.613 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.34 3.02 4.27
BP FIP 3.62 3.43 4.07
BP WHIP 1.17 1.10
BP K/9 9.41 8.87
BP Quality* 41.1 41.6 46.4
BP IP 234.3 262.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Joey Gerber (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Carlos Carrasco (44 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Danny Young (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0007 (Temp: 1.0133 | Wind: 0.9875)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 3.8 - ATL 4.8
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.8 - ATL 4.8
Win Probability: NYM 39.0% - ATL 61.0%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +157 / ATL -157
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 9.0: 39.0%
Under 9.0: 52.1%
NYM +1.5: 55.9%
ATL -1.5: 44.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.2 - ATL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.2 - ATL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: NYM 40.4% - ATL 59.6% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +148 / ATL -148
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML +109 +157 -8.9%
ATL ML -132 -157 +4.1%
NYM +1.5 -190 -127 -9.6%
ATL -1.5 +156 +127 +5.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -13.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -0.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | July 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shane Drohan Home: Dustin May
ERA: 3.12 ERA: 4.8
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 9.21 K/9: 8.32
BB/9: 2.81 BB/9: 2.56
FIP: 3.12 FIP: 3.18
IP: 57.7 IP: 84.3
xERA: 3.33 xERA: 3.85
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL STL Lg Avg
Record 55-33 47-40
R/Game 5.10 4.63 4.52
RA/Game 3.66 4.48 4.51
OPS 0.735 0.722 0.720
wOBA 0.316 0.311 0.310
ERA 3.35 4.14 4.21
FIP 3.41 4.04 4.06
WHIP 1.18 1.33 1.31
K/9 9.85 7.58 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.648 0.515 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.57 4.20 4.27
BP FIP 3.67 4.08 4.07
BP WHIP 1.31 1.36
BP K/9 8.89 7.98
BP Quality* 47.9 49.5 46.4
BP IP 304.7 328.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Matt Svanson (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0489 (Temp: 1.0216 | Wind: 1.0267)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 5.0 - STL 4.3
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.0 - STL 4.3
Win Probability: MIL 57.1% - STL 42.9%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -133 / STL +133
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.0: 54.5%
Under 8.0: 36.6%
MIL -1.5: 41.2%
STL +1.5: 58.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.6 - STL 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.7 - STL 2.0
F5 Win Prob: MIL 60.3% - STL 39.7% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -152 / STL +152
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -111 -133 +4.5%
STL ML -108 +133 -9.0%
MIL -1.5 +148 +143 +0.9%
STL +1.5 -180 -143 -5.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +2.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -15.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | July 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brandon Pfaadt Home: Walker Buehler
ERA: 5.4 ERA: 4.61
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 6.85 K/9: 8.34
BB/9: 3.74 BB/9: 3.29
FIP: 5.22 FIP: 3.77
IP: 43.3 IP: 82.0
xERA: 4.93 xERA: 4.45
xwOBA: 0.341 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: SD (Walker Buehler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SD Lg Avg
Record 44-45 44-45
R/Game 4.24 3.91 4.52
RA/Game 4.56 4.38 4.51
OPS 0.689 0.674 0.720
wOBA 0.297 0.291 0.310
ERA 4.28 4.22 4.21
FIP 4.37 4.07 4.06
WHIP 1.29 1.34 1.31
K/9 6.93 8.34 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.466 0.448 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.79 3.68 4.27
BP FIP 3.71 3.56 4.07
BP WHIP 1.19 1.23
BP K/9 7.77 9.83
BP Quality* 51.0 45.3 46.4
BP IP 273.3 266.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0164 (Temp: 0.9984 | Wind: 1.0180)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.0 - SD 4.6
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.0 - SD 4.6
Win Probability: ARI 44.3% - SD 55.7%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +126 / SD -126
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.5: 47.7%
Under 8.5: 52.3%
ARI -1.5: 28.6%
SD +1.5: 71.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.3 - SD 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.3 - SD 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ARI 43.9% - SD 56.1% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +128 / SD -128
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML +103 +126 -5.0%
SD ML -124 -126 +0.3%
ARI -1.5 +168 +249 -8.7%
SD +1.5 -206 -249 +4.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -0.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | July 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kevin Gausman Home: Landen Roupp
ERA: 4.19 ERA: 4.55
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 8.91 K/9: 10.01
BB/9: 2.14 BB/9: 4.04
FIP: 3.76 FIP: 3.1
IP: 101.0 IP: 89.0
xERA: 3.77 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.302 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: SF (Landen Roupp)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR SF Lg Avg
Record 42-48 37-52
R/Game 3.96 4.09 4.52
RA/Game 4.42 4.83 4.51
OPS 0.688 0.730 0.720
wOBA 0.297 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.11 4.51 4.21
FIP 3.95 4.13 4.06
WHIP 1.30 1.38 1.31
K/9 9.02 7.89 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.449 0.424 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.49 4.69 4.27
BP FIP 3.35 4.37 4.07
BP WHIP 1.27 1.48
BP K/9 9.16 7.72
BP Quality* 41.2 53.6 46.4
BP IP 289.0 297.3
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (32 pitches yesterday)
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 16 mph (gusts 26 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), strong crosswind (16 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9597 (Temp: 0.9830 | Wind: 0.9763)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 3.5 - SF 3.5
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.4 - SF 3.5
Win Probability: TOR 49.4% - SF 50.6%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +103 / SF -103
Avg Total Runs: 6.9
Over 7.5: 40.4%
Under 7.5: 59.6%
TOR -1.5: 31.0%
SF +1.5: 69.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 1.7 - SF 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.7 - SF 1.9
F5 Win Prob: TOR 45.3% - SF 54.7% (Tie: 20.3%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +121 / SF -121
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML -114 +103 -3.9%
SF ML -105 -103 -0.6%
TOR -1.5 +149 +223 -9.2%
SF +1.5 -181 -223 +4.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -12.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +7.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.6% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.2%
Fair ML: -147 | Kelly: 3.78%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00908
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | July 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kyle Freeland Home: Eric Lauer
ERA: 7.25 ERA: 4.84
WHIP: 1.6 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 7.95 K/9: 5.6
BB/9: 2.1 BB/9: 3.18
FIP: 4.74 FIP: 6.04
IP: 77.0 IP: 70.7
xERA: 5.59 xERA: 5.06
xwOBA: 0.36 xwOBA: 0.345
Pitcher Edge: COL (Kyle Freeland)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL LAD Lg Avg
Record 37-54 59-32
R/Game 4.87 5.31 4.52
RA/Game 5.74 3.52 4.51
OPS 0.755 0.787 0.720
wOBA 0.324 0.337 0.310
ERA 5.54 3.49 4.21
FIP 4.64 3.65 4.06
WHIP 1.52 1.13 1.31
K/9 7.23 9.07 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.425 0.680 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.26 3.93 4.27
BP FIP 4.45 3.55 4.07
BP WHIP 1.54 1.26
BP K/9 7.57 9.83
BP Quality* 54.7 44.9 46.4
BP IP 327.0 295.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jordan Romano (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kyle Hurt (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Gervase (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9858 (Temp: 0.9976 | Wind: 0.9881)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 5.3 - LAD 6.6
Simulated Avg: COL 5.3 - LAD 6.6
Win Probability: COL 39.5% - LAD 60.5%
Fair Moneyline: COL +153 / LAD -153
Avg Total Runs: 11.8
Over 9.5: 64.4%
Under 9.5: 35.6%
COL +1.5: 52.7%
LAD -1.5: 47.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 3.3 - LAD 3.8
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 3.3 - LAD 3.8
F5 Win Prob: COL 43.4% - LAD 56.6% (Tie: 12.3%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +130 / LAD -130
F5 Avg Total: 7.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +188 +153 +4.8%
LAD ML -231 -153 -9.3%
COL +1.5 -105 -111 +1.5%
LAD -1.5 -114 +111 -6.0%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +12.0%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -16.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 9.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00909