2026-07-07
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-07
Games: 16 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | July 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jacob Misiorowski Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL STL Lg Avg
Record 56-33 47-41
R/Game 5.09 4.61 4.53
RA/Game 3.65 4.48 4.53
OPS 0.733 0.719 0.721
wOBA 0.315 0.310 0.311
ERA 3.32 4.12 4.21
FIP 3.40 4.02 4.06
WHIP 1.18 1.33 1.31
K/9 9.80 7.59 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.647 0.514 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.56 4.05 4.28
BP FIP 3.65 3.97 4.07
BP WHIP 1.31 1.32
BP K/9 8.92 7.95
BP Quality* 43.3 48.2 46.4
BP IP 305.7 327.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Fernandez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0347 (Temp: 1.0209 | Wind: 1.0136)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 5.2 - STL 3.3
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.2 - STL 3.3
Win Probability: MIL 69.0% - STL 31.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -222 / STL +222
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.0: 46.6%
Under 8.0: 43.9%
MIL -1.5: 52.8%
STL +1.5: 47.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.9 - STL 1.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.9 - STL 1.3
F5 Win Prob: MIL 76.8% - STL 23.2% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -330 / STL +330
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -136 -222 +11.3%
STL ML +113 +222 -15.9%
MIL -1.5 +123 -112 +8.0%
STL +1.5 -149 +112 -12.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Milwaukee Brewers (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -136 | Edge: 11.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00910
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals (Game 2)
Regular Season | July 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL STL Lg Avg
Record 56-33 47-41
R/Game 5.09 4.61 4.53
RA/Game 3.65 4.48 4.53
OPS 0.733 0.719 0.721
wOBA 0.315 0.310 0.311
ERA 3.32 4.12 4.21
FIP 3.40 4.02 4.06
WHIP 1.18 1.33 1.31
K/9 9.80 7.59 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.647 0.514 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.56 4.05 4.28
BP FIP 3.65 3.97 4.07
BP WHIP 1.31 1.32
BP K/9 8.92 7.95
BP Quality* 44.8 51.2 46.4
BP IP 305.7 327.0
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Fernandez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0347 (Temp: 1.0209 | Wind: 1.0136)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 5.3 - STL 4.8
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.3 - STL 4.7
Win Probability: MIL 55.1% - STL 44.9%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -123 / STL +123
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 8.0: 60.3%
Under 8.0: 31.4%
MIL -1.5: 40.6%
STL +1.5: 59.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.9 - STL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.9 - STL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: MIL 53.1% - STL 46.9% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -113 / STL +113
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -136 -123 -2.6%
STL ML +113 +123 -2.0%
MIL -1.5 +123 +146 -4.3%
STL +1.5 -149 -146 -0.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +7.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -21.0%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.3% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.17%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00911
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | July 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Matthew Boyd Home: Shane Baz
ERA: 5.08 ERA: 4.19
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 9.89 K/9: 7.75
BB/9: 2.67 BB/9: 3.48
FIP: 3.34 FIP: 3.69
IP: 33.7 IP: 101.0
xERA: 4.74 xERA: 4.49
xwOBA: 0.335 xwOBA: 0.327
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Matthew Boyd)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC BAL Lg Avg
Record 50-40 42-49
R/Game 5.06 4.57 4.53
RA/Game 4.54 4.88 4.53
OPS 0.747 0.714 0.721
wOBA 0.324 0.309 0.311
ERA 4.36 4.34 4.21
FIP 4.61 4.11 4.06
WHIP 1.27 1.37 1.31
K/9 7.92 8.07 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.549 0.470 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.41 4.15 4.28
BP FIP 4.82 3.95 4.07
BP WHIP 1.36 1.29
BP K/9 7.89 8.75
BP Quality* 53.4 44.8 46.4
BP IP 338.7 314.7
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 37%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0357 (Temp: 1.0117 | Wind: 1.0238)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 5.1 - BAL 5.3
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.1 - BAL 5.3
Win Probability: CHC 48.2% - BAL 51.8%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +108 / BAL -108
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 9.5: 54.1%
Under 9.5: 45.9%
CHC -1.5: 34.2%
BAL +1.5: 65.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 2.9 - BAL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.9 - BAL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: CHC 52.0% - BAL 48.0% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -108 / BAL +108
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -115 +108 -5.3%
BAL ML -105 -108 +0.6%
CHC -1.5 +138 +193 -7.8%
BAL +1.5 -167 -193 +3.3%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +1.7%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -6.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | July 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: J.T. Ginn Home: Tarik Skubal
ERA: 3.04 ERA: 3.15
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 0.91
K/9: 7.8 K/9: 10.28
BB/9: 3.9 BB/9: 1.1
FIP: 4.04 FIP: 2.96
IP: 94.7 IP: 65.7
xERA: 4.08 xERA: 3.26
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.282
Pitcher Edge: DET (Tarik Skubal)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH DET Lg Avg
Record 41-49 40-50
R/Game 4.62 4.21 4.53
RA/Game 5.42 4.09 4.53
OPS 0.736 0.712 0.721
wOBA 0.316 0.308 0.311
ERA 5.10 3.76 4.21
FIP 4.79 3.80 4.06
WHIP 1.47 1.23 1.31
K/9 8.45 8.31 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.427 0.513 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.46 4.20 4.28
BP FIP 4.71 4.13 4.07
BP WHIP 1.56 1.37
BP K/9 9.28 8.56
BP Quality* 56.3 46.6 46.4
BP IP 325.0 326.0
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0311 (Temp: 1.0195 | Wind: 1.0114)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 3.9 - DET 4.5
Simulated Avg: ATH 3.9 - DET 4.5
Win Probability: ATH 43.7% - DET 56.3%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +129 / DET -129
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.0: 46.7%
Under 8.0: 43.8%
ATH +1.5: 60.9%
DET -1.5: 39.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 1.9 - DET 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 1.9 - DET 2.2
F5 Win Prob: ATH 44.9% - DET 55.1% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +123 / DET -123
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +168 +129 +6.4%
DET ML -205 -129 -10.9%
ATH +1.5 -131 -155 +4.1%
DET -1.5 +108 +155 -8.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | July 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Hurston Waldrep Home: Paul Skenes
ERA: 3.68 ERA: 3.62
WHIP: 1.64 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 8.59 K/9: 11.04
BB/9: 6.14 BB/9: 2.04
FIP: 5.02 FIP: 2.8
IP: 7.3 IP: 97.0
xERA: 3.8 xERA: 2.76
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: 0.26
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL PIT Lg Avg
Record 52-37 46-45
R/Game 4.91 5.22 4.53
RA/Game 3.84 4.86 4.53
OPS 0.727 0.762 0.721
wOBA 0.313 0.330 0.311
ERA 3.55 4.27 4.21
FIP 3.91 3.82 4.06
WHIP 1.23 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.61 9.18 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.610 0.533 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.13 4.54 4.28
BP FIP 3.47 4.20 4.07
BP WHIP 1.12 1.43
BP K/9 8.84 9.43
BP Quality* 40.8 51.5 46.4
BP IP 267.7 255.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0178 (Temp: 1.0121 | Wind: 1.0055)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 4.2 - PIT 4.6
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.2 - PIT 4.6
Win Probability: ATL 46.0% - PIT 54.0%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +117 / PIT -117
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 49.3%
Under 8.0: 41.3%
ATL +1.5: 62.6%
PIT -1.5: 37.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 1.9 - PIT 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 1.9 - PIT 2.5
F5 Win Prob: ATL 39.6% - PIT 60.4% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +153 / PIT -153
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML +124 +117 +1.3%
PIT ML -149 -117 -5.8%
ATL +1.5 -162 -168 +0.8%
PIT -1.5 +134 +168 -5.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -3.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | July 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Max Meyer
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA MIA Lg Avg
Record 47-44 49-42
R/Game 4.09 4.59 4.53
RA/Game 3.79 4.33 4.53
OPS 0.694 0.741 0.721
wOBA 0.302 0.319 0.311
ERA 3.55 4.09 4.21
FIP 3.28 3.79 4.06
WHIP 1.16 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.78 8.59 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.534 0.527 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.39 4.30 4.28
BP FIP 3.35 3.54 4.07
BP WHIP 1.32 1.24
BP K/9 8.72 9.53
BP Quality* 39.9 43.1 46.4
BP IP 249.7 261.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0079 (Temp: 1.0175 | Wind: 0.9906)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 3.1 - MIA 4.1
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.1 - MIA 4.1
Win Probability: SEA 38.5% - MIA 61.5%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +159 / MIA -159
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 8.0: 34.8%
Under 8.0: 55.4%
SEA -1.5: 22.3%
MIA +1.5: 77.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 1.6 - MIA 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 1.6 - MIA 2.4
F5 Win Prob: SEA 35.1% - MIA 64.9% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +185 / MIA -185
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML +104 +159 -10.5%
MIA ML -125 -159 +5.9%
SEA -1.5 +171 +349 -14.6%
MIA +1.5 -209 -349 +10.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -17.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +3.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | July 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Will Warren Home: Ian Seymour
ERA: 3.73 ERA: 4.02
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 9.17 K/9: 9.64
BB/9: 2.92 BB/9: 3.38
FIP: 3.49 FIP: 3.94
IP: 89.3 IP: 56.0
xERA: 4.05 xERA: 3.34
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.285
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Will Warren)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY TB Lg Avg
Record 50-40 52-36
R/Game 4.80 4.51 4.53
RA/Game 3.89 4.16 4.53
OPS 0.735 0.729 0.721
wOBA 0.315 0.314 0.311
ERA 3.37 3.76 4.21
FIP 3.56 4.06 4.06
WHIP 1.19 1.17 1.31
K/9 8.87 8.06 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.595 0.537 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.19 4.29 4.28
BP FIP 3.63 4.36 4.07
BP WHIP 1.21 1.28
BP K/9 8.46 8.07
BP Quality* 42.6 53.1 46.4
BP IP 319.0 333.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Chris Roycroft (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 4.5 - TB 4.0
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.5 - TB 4.0
Win Probability: NYY 55.3% - TB 44.7%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -124 / TB +124
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.0: 46.6%
Under 8.0: 43.9%
NYY -1.5: 38.6%
TB +1.5: 61.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.3 - TB 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.2 - TB 2.2
F5 Win Prob: NYY 51.5% - TB 48.5% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -106 / TB +106
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML +101 -124 +5.5%
TB ML -122 +124 -10.3%
NYY -1.5 +169 +159 +1.4%
TB +1.5 -207 -159 -6.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | July 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tatsuya Imai Home: Andrew Alvarez
ERA: 6.14 ERA: 3.05
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 11.17 K/9: 10.45
BB/9: 5.59 BB/9: 3.48
FIP: 4.63 FIP: 2.57
IP: 48.3 IP: 41.3
xERA: 4.9 xERA: 4.08
xwOBA: 0.34 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Andrew Alvarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU WSH Lg Avg
Record 45-48 47-45
R/Game 4.56 5.40 4.53
RA/Game 5.04 5.29 4.53
OPS 0.729 0.757 0.721
wOBA 0.311 0.323 0.311
ERA 4.76 4.79 4.21
FIP 4.61 4.55 4.06
WHIP 1.39 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.79 7.91 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.454 0.509 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.43 6.00 4.28
BP FIP 4.48 4.94 4.07
BP WHIP 1.34 1.59
BP K/9 8.79 8.49
BP Quality* 54.8 59.6 46.4
BP IP 345.0 318.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Nate Pearson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cole Henry (44 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 24%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0269 (Temp: 1.0164 | Wind: 1.0104)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.4 - WSH 6.7
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.4 - WSH 6.6
Win Probability: HOU 31.7% - WSH 68.3%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +215 / WSH -215
Avg Total Runs: 11.1
Over 9.0: 59.1%
Under 9.0: 33.2%
HOU +1.5: 45.1%
WSH -1.5: 54.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 1.9 - WSH 3.7
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 1.9 - WSH 3.7
F5 Win Prob: HOU 25.1% - WSH 74.9% (Tie: 13.0%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +298 / WSH -298
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +101 +215 -18.0%
WSH ML -122 -215 +13.3%
HOU +1.5 -193 +121 -20.7%
WSH -1.5 +158 -121 +16.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +6.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -19.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -122 | Edge: 13.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00912
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets
Regular Season | July 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Seth Lugo Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC NYM Lg Avg
Record 37-54 38-53
R/Game 4.22 4.05 4.53
RA/Game 5.00 4.71 4.53
OPS 0.708 0.680 0.721
wOBA 0.306 0.294 0.311
ERA 4.79 4.27 4.21
FIP 4.54 3.82 4.06
WHIP 1.44 1.30 1.31
K/9 7.83 9.25 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.423 0.432 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.51 3.34 4.28
BP FIP 5.11 3.65 4.07
BP WHIP 1.59 1.19
BP K/9 7.82 9.46
BP Quality* 60.4 45.9 46.4
BP IP 331.7 239.7
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jose Cuas (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Beck Way (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Devin Williams (B2B, 30 pitches)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0201 (Temp: 0.9935 | Wind: 1.0268)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.1 - NYM 4.8
Simulated Avg: KC 4.1 - NYM 4.8
Win Probability: KC 42.6% - NYM 57.4%
Fair Moneyline: KC +135 / NYM -135
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 50.1%
Under 8.5: 49.9%
KC +1.5: 59.1%
NYM -1.5: 40.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.3 - NYM 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.3 - NYM 2.4
F5 Win Prob: KC 47.3% - NYM 52.7% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +112 / NYM -112
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +128 +135 -1.3%
NYM ML -155 -135 -3.4%
KC +1.5 -171 -145 -4.0%
NYM -1.5 +141 +145 -0.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | July 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Andrew Abbott
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI CIN Lg Avg
Record 50-41 41-48
R/Game 4.43 4.18 4.53
RA/Game 4.51 4.85 4.53
OPS 0.708 0.697 0.721
wOBA 0.305 0.302 0.311
ERA 4.25 4.57 4.21
FIP 3.58 4.80 4.06
WHIP 1.33 1.46 1.31
K/9 9.78 8.13 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.492 0.432 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.50 4.95 4.28
BP FIP 3.39 5.03 4.07
BP WHIP 1.41 1.50
BP K/9 10.45 8.44
BP Quality* 47.0 54.6 46.4
BP IP 280.0 343.3
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kyle Backhus (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seth Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (85°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0472 (Temp: 1.0189 | Wind: 1.0278)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 5.5 - CIN 4.8
Simulated Avg: PHI 5.5 - CIN 4.8
Win Probability: PHI 56.2% - CIN 43.8%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -128 / CIN +128
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.0: 54.2%
Under 9.0: 37.4%
PHI -1.5: 41.7%
CIN +1.5: 58.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 3.0 - CIN 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 3.0 - CIN 2.6
F5 Win Prob: PHI 56.0% - CIN 44.0% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -127 / CIN +127
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -175 -128 -7.4%
CIN ML +144 +128 +2.8%
PHI -1.5 -108 +140 -10.2%
CIN +1.5 -111 -140 +5.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +1.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -15.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | July 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Joey Cantillo Home: Taj Bradley
ERA: 3.86 ERA: 3.86
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 8.8 K/9: 10.35
BB/9: 4.35 BB/9: 3.86
FIP: 4.31 FIP: 3.84
IP: 91.0 IP: 88.7
xERA: 4.22 xERA: 3.97
xwOBA: 0.318 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Taj Bradley)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE MIN Lg Avg
Record 47-44 44-47
R/Game 3.98 4.92 4.53
RA/Game 4.08 5.11 4.53
OPS 0.680 0.739 0.721
wOBA 0.296 0.319 0.311
ERA 3.80 4.78 4.21
FIP 3.88 4.19 4.06
WHIP 1.26 1.39 1.31
K/9 9.16 8.37 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.489 0.483 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.80 5.12 4.28
BP FIP 3.64 4.34 4.07
BP WHIP 1.32 1.52
BP K/9 10.23 7.88
BP Quality* 46.7 53.6 46.4
BP IP 301.0 342.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Shawn Armstrong (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 13%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0071 (Temp: 1.0185 | Wind: 0.9888)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.0 - MIN 5.1
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.0 - MIN 5.1
Win Probability: CLE 39.5% - MIN 60.5%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +153 / MIN -153
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.5: 52.8%
Under 8.5: 47.2%
CLE -1.5: 25.3%
MIN +1.5: 74.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.1 - MIN 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.1 - MIN 2.8
F5 Win Prob: CLE 38.4% - MIN 61.6% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +160 / MIN -160
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML -103 +153 -11.2%
MIN ML -117 -153 +6.5%
CLE -1.5 +159 +295 -13.3%
MIN +1.5 -194 -295 +8.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -5.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | July 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Payton Tolle Home: Noah Schultz
ERA: 3.39 ERA: 5.86
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 8.96 K/9: 8.37
BB/9: 2.78 BB/9: 5.44
FIP: 3.44 FIP: 4.57
IP: 74.3 IP: 43.0
xERA: 3.19 xERA: 5.49
xwOBA: 0.279 xwOBA: 0.357
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Payton Tolle)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS CWS Lg Avg
Record 40-48 47-42
R/Game 4.06 4.81 4.53
RA/Game 4.00 4.52 4.53
OPS 0.698 0.738 0.721
wOBA 0.302 0.316 0.311
ERA 3.77 4.20 4.21
FIP 3.74 4.08 4.06
WHIP 1.25 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.71 8.59 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.529 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.94 4.62 4.28
BP FIP 3.91 4.46 4.07
BP WHIP 1.31 1.36
BP K/9 8.59 8.32
BP Quality* 45.6 49.7 46.4
BP IP 263.0 257.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9990 (Temp: 1.0030 | Wind: 0.9961)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 4.7 - CWS 4.3
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.7 - CWS 4.3
Win Probability: BOS 53.3% - CWS 46.7%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -114 / CWS +114
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 51.1%
Under 8.5: 48.9%
BOS -1.5: 37.3%
CWS +1.5: 62.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.8 - CWS 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.8 - CWS 2.1
F5 Win Prob: BOS 60.3% - CWS 39.7% (Tie: 16.3%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -152 / CWS +152
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -126 -114 -2.4%
CWS ML +104 +114 -2.3%
BOS -1.5 +131 +168 -6.0%
CWS +1.5 -158 -168 +1.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -1.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | July 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: José Soriano Home: Jacob deGrom
ERA: 3.42 ERA: 3.48
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 9.99 K/9: 10.82
BB/9: 4.41 BB/9: 1.88
FIP: 3.91 FIP: 3.5
IP: 100.0 IP: 95.7
xERA: 4.34 xERA: 3.44
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Jacob deGrom)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA TEX Lg Avg
Record 36-55 45-45
R/Game 4.38 4.08 4.53
RA/Game 5.02 4.17 4.53
OPS 0.703 0.712 0.721
wOBA 0.305 0.309 0.311
ERA 4.63 3.98 4.21
FIP 4.18 3.93 4.06
WHIP 1.40 1.24 1.31
K/9 9.03 8.70 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.438 0.490 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.49 4.24 4.28
BP FIP 4.26 4.18 4.07
BP WHIP 1.41 1.27
BP K/9 9.51 7.87
BP Quality* 50.0 46.2 46.4
BP IP 306.7 250.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0055 (Temp: 1.0294 | Wind: 0.9768)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 4.1 - TEX 4.4
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.1 - TEX 4.4
Win Probability: LAA 46.6% - TEX 53.4%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +115 / TEX -115
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.0: 56.7%
Under 7.0: 33.9%
LAA +1.5: 63.7%
TEX -1.5: 36.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.1 - TEX 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.1 - TEX 2.3
F5 Win Prob: LAA 46.6% - TEX 53.4% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +115 / TEX -115
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +139 +115 +4.8%
TEX ML -168 -115 -9.3%
LAA +1.5 -163 -175 +1.7%
TEX -1.5 +135 +175 -6.2%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +4.3%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -18.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | July 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zac Gallen Home: Germán Márquez
ERA: 6.36 ERA: 5.79
WHIP: 1.57 WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 5.48 K/9: 5.51
BB/9: 2.74 BB/9: 4.13
FIP: 5.2 FIP: 6.43
IP: 92.0 IP: 32.7
xERA: 6.28 xERA: 6.01
xwOBA: 0.378 xwOBA: 0.371
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Zac Gallen)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SD Lg Avg
Record 45-45 44-46
R/Game 4.28 3.87 4.53
RA/Game 4.51 4.42 4.53
OPS 0.692 0.671 0.721
wOBA 0.299 0.290 0.311
ERA 4.24 4.26 4.21
FIP 4.33 4.09 4.06
WHIP 1.28 1.34 1.31
K/9 6.98 8.35 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.476 0.439 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.73 3.66 4.28
BP FIP 3.67 3.57 4.07
BP WHIP 1.18 1.22
BP K/9 7.82 9.85
BP Quality* 44.5 43.7 46.4
BP IP 277.3 270.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
UNAVAIL: Drey Jameson (B2B, 27 pitches)
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Alek Jacob (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0110 (Temp: 0.9980 | Wind: 1.0131)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 5.1 - SD 4.7
Simulated Avg: ARI 5.0 - SD 4.7
Win Probability: ARI 53.6% - SD 46.4%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -115 / SD +115
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 9.0: 48.7%
Under 9.0: 42.8%
ARI +1.5: 68.5%
SD -1.5: 31.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 3.3 - SD 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 3.3 - SD 3.0
F5 Win Prob: ARI 54.7% - SD 45.3% (Tie: 13.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -121 / SD +121
F5 Avg Total: 6.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML +101 -115 +3.8%
SD ML -122 +115 -8.5%
ARI +1.5 -200 -217 +1.8%
SD -1.5 +164 +217 -6.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -3.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -9.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | July 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Trevor McDonald
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR SF Lg Avg
Record 42-49 38-52
R/Game 3.92 4.16 4.53
RA/Game 4.48 4.79 4.53
OPS 0.685 0.732 0.721
wOBA 0.295 0.311 0.311
ERA 4.14 4.47 4.21
FIP 3.98 4.12 4.06
WHIP 1.31 1.37 1.31
K/9 9.01 7.88 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.439 0.435 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.55 4.68 4.28
BP FIP 3.45 4.35 4.07
BP WHIP 1.28 1.47
BP K/9 9.07 7.75
BP Quality* 43.5 53.4 46.4
BP IP 291.7 298.3
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Adam Macko (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 19 mph (gusts 32 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), strong crosswind (19 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9553 (Temp: 0.9826 | Wind: 0.9722)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 3.5 - SF 3.8
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.5 - SF 3.7
Win Probability: TOR 46.8% - SF 53.2%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +114 / SF -114
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 7.5: 43.8%
Under 7.5: 56.2%
TOR -1.5: 29.3%
SF +1.5: 70.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 1.8 - SF 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.7 - SF 2.1
F5 Win Prob: TOR 42.8% - SF 57.2% (Tie: 19.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +134 / SF -134
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML -115 +114 -6.7%
SF ML -105 -114 +2.0%
TOR -1.5 +144 +241 -11.7%
SF +1.5 -175 -241 +7.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -8.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +3.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | July 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael Lorenzen Home: Justin Wrobleski
ERA: 6.91 ERA: 2.8
WHIP: 1.81 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 7.01 K/9: 6.17
BB/9: 3.35 BB/9: 1.74
FIP: 4.62 FIP: 3.42
IP: 86.0 IP: 93.3
xERA: 5.59 xERA: 4.28
xwOBA: 0.36 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Justin Wrobleski)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL LAD Lg Avg
Record 37-55 60-32
R/Game 4.89 5.34 4.53
RA/Game 5.76 3.55 4.53
OPS 0.755 0.787 0.721
wOBA 0.324 0.336 0.311
ERA 5.53 3.51 4.21
FIP 4.63 3.67 4.06
WHIP 1.52 1.13 1.31
K/9 7.20 9.03 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.426 0.678 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.19 3.95 4.28
BP FIP 4.43 3.57 4.07
BP WHIP 1.54 1.27
BP K/9 7.55 9.79
BP Quality* 60.4 45.2 46.4
BP IP 331.3 300.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Zach Agnos (38 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jordan Romano (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brock Stewart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9889 (Temp: 0.9987 | Wind: 0.9903)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 4.1 - LAD 6.8
Simulated Avg: COL 4.1 - LAD 6.8
Win Probability: COL 28.0% - LAD 72.0%
Fair Moneyline: COL +257 / LAD -257
Avg Total Runs: 11.0
Over 9.5: 58.4%
Under 9.5: 41.6%
COL +1.5: 41.0%
LAD -1.5: 59.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 2.2 - LAD 3.8
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.2 - LAD 3.8
F5 Win Prob: COL 28.0% - LAD 72.0% (Tie: 13.0%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +257 / LAD -257
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +228 +257 -2.5%
LAD ML -286 -257 -2.1%
COL +1.5 +108 +144 -7.1%
LAD -1.5 -131 -144 +2.3%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +6.0%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -10.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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