2026-07-08
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-08
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | July 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dylan Cease Home: Logan Webb
ERA: 2.79 ERA: 3.66
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 13.65 K/9: 7.52
BB/9: 4.08 BB/9: 2.31
FIP: 2.15 FIP: 3.18
IP: 90.3 IP: 93.3
xERA: 2.9 xERA: 4.0
xwOBA: 0.266 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Dylan Cease)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR SF Lg Avg
Record 43-49 38-53
R/Game 3.98 4.14 4.53
RA/Game 4.47 4.84 4.53
OPS 0.686 0.730 0.720
wOBA 0.296 0.310 0.311
ERA 4.13 4.52 4.21
FIP 3.95 4.12 4.06
WHIP 1.30 1.37 1.31
K/9 8.98 7.85 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.447 0.430 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.69 4.69 4.30
BP FIP 3.54 4.35 4.08
BP WHIP 1.32 1.47
BP K/9 9.06 7.73
BP Quality* 44.7 51.9 46.6
BP IP 239.3 299.3
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Patrick Corbin (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Adrian Houser (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.5 - SF 3.0
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.5 - SF 3.0
Win Probability: TOR 55.9% - SF 44.1%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -127 / SF +127
Avg Total Runs: 6.6
Over 7.0: 37.1%
Under 7.0: 52.0%
TOR -1.5: 36.3%
SF +1.5: 63.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 1.8 - SF 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.8 - SF 1.4
F5 Win Prob: TOR 59.8% - SF 40.2% (Tie: 22.0%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -149 / SF +149
F5 Avg Total: 3.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML -122 -127 +1.0%
SF ML +101 +127 -5.7%
TOR -1.5 +149 +175 -3.8%
SF +1.5 -181 -175 -0.7%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -15.2%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -0.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | July 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Colin Rea Home: Dean Kremer
ERA: 4.74 ERA: 3.18
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 0.88
K/9: 6.85 K/9: 10.59
BB/9: 3.43 BB/9: 1.59
FIP: 4.61 FIP: 5.1
IP: 89.3 IP: 17.0
xERA: 5.49 xERA: 3.94
xwOBA: 0.357 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Colin Rea)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC BAL Lg Avg
Record 51-40 42-50
R/Game 5.05 4.54 4.53
RA/Game 4.52 4.88 4.53
OPS 0.747 0.711 0.720
wOBA 0.324 0.308 0.311
ERA 4.33 4.35 4.21
FIP 4.57 4.10 4.06
WHIP 1.27 1.37 1.31
K/9 7.96 8.03 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.551 0.467 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.43 4.16 4.30
BP FIP 4.79 3.92 4.08
BP WHIP 1.36 1.29
BP K/9 7.96 8.73
BP Quality* 54.8 46.2 46.6
BP IP 341.7 317.7
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (37 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 4.8 - BAL 5.6
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.8 - BAL 5.5
Win Probability: CHC 43.4% - BAL 56.6%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +131 / BAL -131
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 10.0: 45.9%
Under 10.0: 45.7%
CHC +1.5: 58.1%
BAL -1.5: 41.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 2.6 - BAL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.6 - BAL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: CHC 44.0% - BAL 56.0% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +127 / BAL -127
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML +105 +131 -5.4%
BAL ML -126 -131 +0.9%
CHC +1.5 -191 -139 -7.5%
BAL -1.5 +157 +139 +3.0%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -6.5%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -6.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | July 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jeffrey Springs Home: Troy Melton
ERA: 5.79 ERA: 2.05
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 0.8
K/9: 7.71 K/9: 6.55
BB/9: 3.18 BB/9: 2.05
FIP: 5.79 FIP: 4.4
IP: 93.3 IP: 44.0
xERA: 4.62 xERA: 3.08
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.274
Pitcher Edge: DET (Troy Melton)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH DET Lg Avg
Record 41-50 41-50
R/Game 4.59 4.23 4.53
RA/Game 5.43 4.07 4.53
OPS 0.735 0.712 0.720
wOBA 0.315 0.308 0.311
ERA 5.11 3.73 4.21
FIP 4.77 3.78 4.06
WHIP 1.47 1.22 1.31
K/9 8.49 8.35 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.424 0.518 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.31 4.15 4.30
BP FIP 4.67 4.10 4.08
BP WHIP 1.54 1.36
BP K/9 9.30 8.54
BP Quality* 57.0 47.7 46.6
BP IP 322.3 330.0
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jacob Lopez (63 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Drew Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9962 (Temp: 1.0219 | Wind: 0.9748)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 4.0 - DET 5.3
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.0 - DET 5.3
Win Probability: ATH 37.1% - DET 62.9%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +170 / DET -170
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 9.0: 44.8%
Under 9.0: 46.1%
ATH +1.5: 52.9%
DET -1.5: 47.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 2.0 - DET 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.0 - DET 3.0
F5 Win Prob: ATH 34.1% - DET 65.9% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +193 / DET -193
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +123 +170 -7.8%
DET ML -149 -170 +3.1%
ATH +1.5 -163 -112 -9.1%
DET -1.5 +135 +112 +4.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -7.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -6.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | July 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Grant Holmes Home: Jared Jones
ERA: 3.83 ERA: 5.28
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 7.76 K/9: 9.62
BB/9: 4.15 BB/9: 3.41
FIP: 5.13 FIP: 4.34
IP: 82.3 IP: 29.0
xERA: 4.62 xERA: 4.43
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Jared Jones)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL PIT Lg Avg
Record 52-38 47-45
R/Game 4.90 5.29 4.53
RA/Game 3.93 4.85 4.53
OPS 0.727 0.766 0.720
wOBA 0.313 0.331 0.311
ERA 3.65 4.27 4.21
FIP 3.97 3.80 4.06
WHIP 1.24 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.56 9.15 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.599 0.540 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.44 4.58 4.30
BP FIP 3.66 4.19 4.08
BP WHIP 1.17 1.43
BP K/9 8.72 9.40
BP Quality* 43.1 48.6 46.6
BP IP 274.7 257.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Connor Thomas (60 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0118 (Temp: 1.0196 | Wind: 0.9923)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 5.2 - PIT 5.5
Simulated Avg: ATL 5.1 - PIT 5.5
Win Probability: ATL 46.6% - PIT 53.4%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +115 / PIT -115
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 9.5: 56.2%
Under 9.5: 43.8%
ATL -1.5: 32.9%
PIT +1.5: 67.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 3.0 - PIT 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 3.0 - PIT 3.2
F5 Win Prob: ATL 46.2% - PIT 53.8% (Tie: 14.0%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +117 / PIT -117
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -101 +115 -3.6%
PIT ML -120 -115 -1.2%
ATL -1.5 +162 +204 -5.2%
PIT +1.5 -197 -204 +0.8%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +3.8%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -8.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | July 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: George Kirby Home: Tyler Phillips
ERA: 3.81 ERA: 3.52
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 7.88 K/9: 6.78
BB/9: 2.08 BB/9: 4.17
FIP: 3.29 FIP: 4.49
IP: 104.0 IP: 69.0
xERA: 3.72 xERA: 4.81
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: SEA (George Kirby)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA MIA Lg Avg
Record 47-45 50-42
R/Game 4.10 4.61 4.53
RA/Game 3.82 4.34 4.53
OPS 0.694 0.742 0.720
wOBA 0.302 0.320 0.311
ERA 3.55 4.09 4.21
FIP 3.30 3.80 4.06
WHIP 1.16 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.76 8.58 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.533 0.528 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.37 4.32 4.30
BP FIP 3.41 3.52 4.08
BP WHIP 1.31 1.24
BP K/9 8.68 9.48
BP Quality* 43.1 47.6 46.6
BP IP 254.0 266.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0134 (Temp: 1.0171 | Wind: 0.9963)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 3.9 - MIA 3.9
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.9 - MIA 3.9
Win Probability: SEA 49.9% - MIA 50.1%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +100 / MIA -100
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.5: 40.2%
Under 8.5: 59.8%
SEA -1.5: 32.7%
MIA +1.5: 67.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.2 - MIA 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.2 - MIA 2.1
F5 Win Prob: SEA 52.2% - MIA 47.8% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -109 / MIA +109
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -131 +100 -6.8%
MIA ML +109 -100 +2.3%
SEA -1.5 +128 +206 -11.2%
MIA +1.5 -155 -206 +6.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -12.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +7.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.91%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00913
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | July 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Gerrit Cole Home: Shane McClanahan
ERA: 4.01 ERA: 3.05
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 8.65 K/9: 8.7
BB/9: 2.11 BB/9: 3.16
FIP: 4.32 FIP: 3.2
IP: 42.7 IP: 79.7
xERA: 3.34 xERA: 4.28
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: TB (Shane McClanahan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY TB Lg Avg
Record 50-41 53-36
R/Game 4.79 4.53 4.53
RA/Game 3.91 4.16 4.53
OPS 0.735 0.730 0.720
wOBA 0.315 0.315 0.311
ERA 3.40 3.76 4.21
FIP 3.60 4.02 4.06
WHIP 1.19 1.17 1.31
K/9 8.85 8.16 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.592 0.539 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.15 4.27 4.30
BP FIP 3.62 4.32 4.08
BP WHIP 1.20 1.28
BP K/9 8.44 8.12
BP Quality* 40.9 48.4 46.6
BP IP 323.0 337.0
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 4.2 - TB 4.0
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.2 - TB 4.0
Win Probability: NYY 51.1% - TB 48.9%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -104 / TB +104
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 7.0: 53.6%
Under 7.0: 36.6%
NYY -1.5: 34.4%
TB +1.5: 65.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.1 - TB 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.1 - TB 2.2
F5 Win Prob: NYY 47.5% - TB 52.4% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY +110 / TB -110
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -101 -104 +0.8%
TB ML -120 +104 -5.6%
NYY -1.5 +174 +191 -2.1%
TB +1.5 -213 -191 -2.4%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +1.2%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -15.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | July 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Spencer Arrighetti Home: Foster Griffin
ERA: 3.81 ERA: 2.87
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 9.12 K/9: 8.71
BB/9: 4.38 BB/9: 2.26
FIP: 4.2 FIP: 4.06
IP: 78.0 IP: 103.3
xERA: 4.71 xERA: 4.02
xwOBA: 0.334 xwOBA: 0.311
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU WSH Lg Avg
Record 46-48 47-46
R/Game 4.57 5.38 4.53
RA/Game 5.02 5.30 4.53
OPS 0.727 0.758 0.720
wOBA 0.311 0.324 0.311
ERA 4.74 4.80 4.21
FIP 4.62 4.55 4.06
WHIP 1.39 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.80 7.91 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.457 0.506 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.39 6.09 4.30
BP FIP 4.47 4.97 4.08
BP WHIP 1.35 1.60
BP K/9 8.84 8.58
BP Quality* 54.6 60.1 46.6
BP IP 350.3 325.0
Bullpen Edge: HOU (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Justin Lawrence (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0092 (Temp: 1.0183 | Wind: 0.9911)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.7 - WSH 5.9
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.7 - WSH 5.8
Win Probability: HOU 39.6% - WSH 60.4%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +152 / WSH -152
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 10.0: 47.2%
Under 10.0: 44.6%
HOU +1.5: 54.1%
WSH -1.5: 45.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.2 - WSH 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.2 - WSH 3.0
F5 Win Prob: HOU 37.3% - WSH 62.7% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +168 / WSH -168
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML +113 +152 -7.3%
WSH ML -136 -152 +2.8%
HOU +1.5 -174 -118 -9.4%
WSH -1.5 +143 +118 +4.7%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -5.2%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -7.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets
Regular Season | July 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Steven Cruz Home: Christian Scott
ERA: 5.08 ERA: 3.49
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 11.75 K/9: 11.02
BB/9: 5.08 BB/9: 4.59
FIP: 5.86 FIP: 4.04
IP: 28.3 IP: 49.0
xERA: 4.02 xERA: 4.78
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.336
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Christian Scott)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC NYM Lg Avg
Record 38-54 38-54
R/Game 4.35 4.14 4.53
RA/Game 5.08 4.84 4.53
OPS 0.717 0.683 0.720
wOBA 0.309 0.295 0.311
ERA 4.84 4.40 4.21
FIP 4.56 3.86 4.06
WHIP 1.44 1.32 1.31
K/9 7.79 9.27 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.430 0.429 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.51 3.73 4.30
BP FIP 5.11 3.72 4.08
BP WHIP 1.59 1.24
BP K/9 7.71 9.49
BP Quality* 63.5 52.4 46.6
BP IP 336.3 243.7
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Strahm (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Beck Way (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
TIRED: Matt Seelinger (52 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Kodai Senga (61 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Devin Williams (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9900 (Temp: 1.0042 | Wind: 0.9859)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.3 - NYM 5.1
Simulated Avg: KC 4.3 - NYM 5.1
Win Probability: KC 42.4% - NYM 57.6%
Fair Moneyline: KC +136 / NYM -136
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 9.0: 45.5%
Under 9.0: 45.4%
KC +1.5: 58.4%
NYM -1.5: 41.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.3 - NYM 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.3 - NYM 2.6
F5 Win Prob: KC 44.4% - NYM 55.6% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +125 / NYM -125
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +148 +136 +2.1%
NYM ML -180 -136 -6.7%
KC +1.5 -144 -140 -0.6%
NYM -1.5 +119 +140 -4.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -6.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -7.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | July 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Chase Burns
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI CIN Lg Avg
Record 51-41 41-49
R/Game 4.42 4.14 4.53
RA/Game 4.47 4.84 4.53
OPS 0.707 0.694 0.720
wOBA 0.304 0.301 0.311
ERA 4.21 4.56 4.21
FIP 3.56 4.79 4.06
WHIP 1.32 1.45 1.31
K/9 9.87 8.13 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.496 0.429 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 4.94 4.30
BP FIP 3.39 5.02 4.08
BP WHIP 1.41 1.50
BP K/9 10.50 8.39
BP Quality* 48.4 54.5 46.6
BP IP 282.0 346.3
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Kyle Backhus (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seth Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9995 (Temp: 1.0172 | Wind: 0.9825)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.2 - CIN 4.6
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.2 - CIN 4.6
Win Probability: PHI 45.2% - CIN 54.8%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +121 / CIN -121
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 9.0: 40.5%
Under 9.0: 50.3%
PHI +1.5: 61.7%
CIN -1.5: 38.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 1.8 - CIN 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 1.8 - CIN 2.5
F5 Win Prob: PHI 38.6% - CIN 61.4% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +159 / CIN -159
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML +119 +121 -0.4%
CIN ML -143 -121 -4.1%
PHI +1.5 -175 -161 -2.0%
CIN -1.5 +144 +161 -2.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -11.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -2.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | July 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Slade Cecconi Home: Connor Prielipp
ERA: 4.44 ERA: 4.96
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 6.89 K/9: 9.49
BB/9: 2.83 BB/9: 3.36
FIP: 4.29 FIP: 3.38
IP: 95.3 IP: 61.7
xERA: 4.53 xERA: 4.08
xwOBA: 0.328 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Connor Prielipp)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE MIN Lg Avg
Record 47-45 45-47
R/Game 3.95 4.90 4.53
RA/Game 4.07 5.07 4.53
OPS 0.676 0.738 0.720
wOBA 0.294 0.319 0.311
ERA 3.77 4.67 4.21
FIP 3.87 4.16 4.06
WHIP 1.27 1.38 1.31
K/9 9.15 8.42 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.485 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.79 5.09 4.30
BP FIP 3.63 4.32 4.08
BP WHIP 1.32 1.51
BP K/9 10.15 7.91
BP Quality* 45.1 54.8 46.6
BP IP 304.0 344.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Franco Aleman (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0348 (Temp: 1.0094 | Wind: 1.0252)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.2 - MIN 5.3
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.2 - MIN 5.3
Win Probability: CLE 39.7% - MIN 60.3%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +152 / MIN -152
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.0: 56.0%
Under 8.0: 35.3%
CLE +1.5: 55.6%
MIN -1.5: 44.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.2 - MIN 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.2 - MIN 3.0
F5 Win Prob: CLE 37.0% - MIN 63.0% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +170 / MIN -170
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML +108 +152 -8.3%
MIN ML -131 -152 +3.6%
CLE +1.5 -192 -125 -10.2%
MIN -1.5 +157 +125 +5.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +3.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -17.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | July 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jake Bennett Home: Davis Martin
ERA: 3.1 ERA: 3.08
WHIP: 0.98 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 6.86 K/9: 8.41
BB/9: 1.55 BB/9: 2.71
FIP: 3.05 FIP: 2.94
IP: 40.7 IP: 96.3
xERA: 2.83 xERA: 4.11
xwOBA: 0.263 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS CWS Lg Avg
Record 41-48 47-43
R/Game 4.10 4.77 4.53
RA/Game 3.97 4.56 4.53
OPS 0.702 0.734 0.720
wOBA 0.304 0.314 0.311
ERA 3.74 4.25 4.21
FIP 3.72 4.11 4.06
WHIP 1.24 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.72 8.58 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.515 0.521 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.92 4.58 4.30
BP FIP 3.88 4.44 4.08
BP WHIP 1.31 1.36
BP K/9 8.63 8.42
BP Quality* 46.9 52.5 46.6
BP IP 266.0 259.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Justin Slaten (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0025 (Temp: 1.0112 | Wind: 0.9914)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 3.8 - CWS 4.0
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.8 - CWS 4.0
Win Probability: BOS 46.8% - CWS 53.2%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +114 / CWS -114
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.0: 40.2%
Under 8.0: 50.1%
BOS +1.5: 64.5%
CWS -1.5: 35.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 1.8 - CWS 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.8 - CWS 1.9
F5 Win Prob: BOS 48.4% - CWS 51.6% (Tie: 20.2%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +107 / CWS -107
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -105 +114 -4.4%
CWS ML -114 -114 -0.1%
BOS +1.5 -198 -182 -2.0%
CWS -1.5 +163 +182 -2.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -12.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -2.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | July 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kyle Harrison Home: Michael McGreevy
ERA: 2.82 ERA: 3.12
WHIP: 1.08 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 11.18 K/9: 5.66
BB/9: 2.26 BB/9: 2.08
FIP: 2.84 FIP: 4.31
IP: 79.7 IP: 95.3
xERA: 3.03 xERA: 5.6
xwOBA: 0.272 xwOBA: 0.36
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Kyle Harrison)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL STL Lg Avg
Record 58-33 47-43
R/Game 5.13 4.57 4.53
RA/Game 3.63 4.53 4.53
OPS 0.735 0.715 0.720
wOBA 0.316 0.308 0.311
ERA 3.30 4.19 4.21
FIP 3.41 4.03 4.06
WHIP 1.16 1.34 1.31
K/9 9.79 7.55 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.654 0.503 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.52 4.21 4.30
BP FIP 3.64 3.98 4.08
BP WHIP 1.30 1.34
BP K/9 8.91 7.73
BP Quality* 46.1 58.0 46.6
BP IP 309.0 322.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
STL: DEPLETED (penalty +12.0)
UNAVAIL: Justin Bruihl (B2B, 30 pitches)
UNAVAIL: Gordon Graceffo (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Jared Shuster (52 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bruce Zimmermann (72 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Fernandez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0046 (Temp: 1.0237 | Wind: 0.9814)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 5.7 - STL 3.8
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.7 - STL 3.8
Win Probability: MIL 67.4% - STL 32.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -207 / STL +207
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.0: 55.6%
Under 8.0: 35.7%
MIL -1.5: 52.7%
STL +1.5: 47.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 3.0 - STL 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.0 - STL 1.8
F5 Win Prob: MIL 69.8% - STL 30.2% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -231 / STL +231
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -148 -207 +7.7%
STL ML +123 +207 -12.2%
MIL -1.5 +119 -111 +7.0%
STL +1.5 -144 +111 -11.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +3.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -16.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (Run Line) [+119]
Model: 52.7% | Market: 45.7% | Edge: 7.0%
Fair ML: -111 | Kelly: 3.24%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00914
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | July 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Walbert Ureña Home: MacKenzie Gore
ERA: 3.03 ERA: 4.31
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 8.73 K/9: 9.75
BB/9: 4.77 BB/9: 3.66
FIP: 3.59 FIP: 3.37
IP: 77.3 IP: 96.0
xERA: 3.27 xERA: 3.86
xwOBA: 0.282 xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA TEX Lg Avg
Record 36-56 46-45
R/Game 4.37 4.12 4.53
RA/Game 5.05 4.15 4.53
OPS 0.702 0.713 0.720
wOBA 0.305 0.310 0.311
ERA 4.67 3.97 4.21
FIP 4.19 3.90 4.06
WHIP 1.40 1.24 1.31
K/9 9.01 8.73 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.434 0.496 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.64 4.23 4.30
BP FIP 4.32 4.15 4.08
BP WHIP 1.43 1.27
BP K/9 9.53 7.85
BP Quality* 50.9 49.0 46.6
BP IP 308.7 253.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Winn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 96°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (96°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0059 (Temp: 1.0357 | Wind: 0.9712)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 4.4 - TEX 4.1
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.4 - TEX 4.1
Win Probability: LAA 52.6% - TEX 47.4%
Fair Moneyline: LAA -111 / TEX +111
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.5: 56.3%
Under 7.5: 43.7%
LAA +1.5: 68.7%
TEX -1.5: 31.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.3 - TEX 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.3 - TEX 2.0
F5 Win Prob: LAA 56.4% - TEX 43.6% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA -130 / TEX +130
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +129 -111 +9.0%
TEX ML -156 +111 -13.6%
LAA +1.5 -167 -219 +6.2%
TEX -1.5 +137 +219 -10.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +4.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -8.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | July 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gabriel Hughes Home: Roki Sasaki
ERA: 0.0 ERA: 5.4
WHIP: 1.0 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 3.0 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 3.0 BB/9: 3.84
FIP: 3.43 FIP: 5.33
IP: 3.0 IP: 75.0
xERA: 4.53 xERA: 4.78
xwOBA: 0.328 xwOBA: 0.336
Pitcher Edge: COL (Gabriel Hughes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL LAD Lg Avg
Record 38-55 60-33
R/Game 4.88 5.31 4.53
RA/Game 5.73 3.56 4.53
OPS 0.753 0.785 0.720
wOBA 0.324 0.336 0.311
ERA 5.49 3.48 4.21
FIP 4.63 3.65 4.06
WHIP 1.51 1.14 1.31
K/9 7.19 9.05 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.427 0.675 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.14 3.93 4.30
BP FIP 4.41 3.57 4.08
BP WHIP 1.53 1.28
BP K/9 7.54 9.78
BP Quality* 57.0 43.7 46.6
BP IP 334.3 302.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jordan Romano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9942 (Temp: 1.0019 | Wind: 0.9923)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 5.1 - LAD 5.8
Simulated Avg: COL 5.1 - LAD 5.8
Win Probability: COL 43.8% - LAD 56.2%
Fair Moneyline: COL +129 / LAD -129
Avg Total Runs: 10.9
Over 10.0: 50.5%
Under 10.0: 41.4%
COL +1.5: 58.1%
LAD -1.5: 41.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 3.2 - LAD 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 3.1 - LAD 3.0
F5 Win Prob: COL 51.9% - LAD 48.1% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: COL -108 / LAD +108
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +199 +129 +10.3%
LAD ML -246 -129 -14.8%
COL +1.5 +101 -139 +8.3%
LAD -1.5 -122 +139 -13.0%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -1.9%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -11.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line) [+101]
Model: 58.1% | Market: 49.8% | Edge: 8.3%
Fair ML: -139 | Kelly: 4.15%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00915
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | July 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jose Cabrera Home: Michael King
ERA: 4.73 ERA: 3.52
WHIP: 1.58 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 6.75 K/9: 7.74
BB/9: 3.38 BB/9: 3.61
FIP: 5.66 FIP: 3.85
IP: 13.3 IP: 102.3
xERA: 6.41 xERA: 4.56
xwOBA: 0.381 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: SD (Michael King)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI SD Lg Avg
Record 45-46 45-46
R/Game 4.24 3.87 4.53
RA/Game 4.51 4.38 4.53
OPS 0.690 0.671 0.720
wOBA 0.298 0.290 0.311
ERA 4.24 4.21 4.21
FIP 4.33 4.07 4.06
WHIP 1.28 1.34 1.31
K/9 6.96 8.34 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.472 0.443 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.71 3.62 4.30
BP FIP 3.67 3.53 4.08
BP WHIP 1.17 1.22
BP K/9 7.76 9.88
BP Quality* 44.3 44.9 46.6
BP IP 279.3 273.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drey Jameson (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9967 (Temp: 0.9952 | Wind: 1.0015)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 3.8 - SD 3.8
Simulated Avg: ARI 3.8 - SD 3.8
Win Probability: ARI 49.6% - SD 50.4%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +102 / SD -102
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 8.0: 38.4%
Under 8.0: 51.9%
ARI +1.5: 67.5%
SD -1.5: 32.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 2.1 - SD 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.1 - SD 2.2
F5 Win Prob: ARI 49.4% - SD 50.6% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +102 / SD -102
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +119 +102 +3.9%
SD ML -143 -102 -8.4%
ARI +1.5 -175 -208 +3.9%
SD -1.5 +144 +208 -8.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -14.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -0.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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