2026-07-09
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-09
Games: 13 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | July 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bryce Elder Home: Mitch Keller
ERA: 4.01 ERA: 5.02
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 7.57 K/9: 6.64
BB/9: 2.74 BB/9: 2.96
FIP: 3.91 FIP: 4.17
IP: 98.7 IP: 100.3
xERA: 3.62 xERA: 5.38
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.354
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL PIT Lg Avg
Record 53-38 47-46
R/Game 4.88 5.24 4.53
RA/Game 3.89 4.83 4.53
OPS 0.725 0.762 0.721
wOBA 0.312 0.330 0.310
ERA 3.61 4.26 4.21
FIP 3.94 3.78 4.06
WHIP 1.23 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.59 9.19 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.602 0.537 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.39 4.64 4.31
BP FIP 3.62 4.21 4.08
BP WHIP 1.16 1.44
BP K/9 8.78 9.43
BP Quality* 44.2 48.9 46.6
BP IP 278.7 259.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ronald Acuña Jr., Joey Bart, Jorge Mateo
Ronald Acuña Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.794 (195 AB)
Joey Bart Catcher OPS: 0.684 (83 AB)
Jorge Mateo Shortstop OPS: 0.667 (124 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.0% of full strength
PIT (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Endy Rodríguez, Spencer Horwitz, Oneil Cruz
Endy Rodríguez Catcher OPS: 0.858 (100 AB)
Spencer Horwitz First Base OPS: 0.841 (246 AB)
Oneil Cruz Outfielder OPS: 0.822 (250 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.5% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0006 (Temp: 1.0160 | Wind: 0.9848)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 4.9 - PIT 4.4
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.9 - PIT 4.4
Win Probability: ATL 54.9% - PIT 45.1%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -122 / PIT +122
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 9.5: 45.1%
Under 9.5: 54.9%
ATL -1.5: 39.4%
PIT +1.5: 60.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 2.9 - PIT 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.8 - PIT 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ATL 57.4% - PIT 42.6% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -135 / PIT +135
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -110 -122 +2.6%
PIT ML -110 +122 -7.3%
ATL -1.5 +139 +154 -2.5%
PIT +1.5 -168 -154 -2.0%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -7.3%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +2.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets
Regular Season | July 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael Wacha Home: Sean Manaea
ERA: 3.45 ERA: 4.76
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 7.14 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 2.43 BB/9: 3.04
FIP: 3.8 FIP: 3.64
IP: 114.7 IP: 68.0
xERA: 4.08 xERA: 4.14
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC NYM Lg Avg
Record 38-55 39-54
R/Game 4.32 4.16 4.53
RA/Game 5.09 4.81 4.53
OPS 0.717 0.684 0.721
wOBA 0.309 0.295 0.310
ERA 4.86 4.34 4.21
FIP 4.57 3.85 4.06
WHIP 1.45 1.32 1.31
K/9 7.78 9.24 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.426 0.434 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.54 3.74 4.31
BP FIP 5.11 3.71 4.08
BP WHIP 1.60 1.24
BP K/9 7.68 9.45
BP Quality* 65.2 46.4 46.6
BP IP 344.3 245.7
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Alex Lange (38 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jose Cuas (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Randy Dobnak (95 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Matt Strahm (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Beck Way (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tobias Myers (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Carter Jensen, Michael Massey, Maikel Garcia
Carter Jensen Catcher OPS: 0.752 (296 AB)
Michael Massey Second Base OPS: 0.729 (217 AB)
Maikel Garcia Third Base OPS: 0.693 (268 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.6% of full strength
NYM (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: MJ Melendez, Luis Robert Jr., Francisco Lindor
MJ Melendez Designated Hitter OPS: 0.665 (120 AB)
Luis Robert Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.656 (85 AB)
Francisco Lindor Shortstop OPS: 0.648 (142 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 25%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9897 (Temp: 1.0199 | Wind: 0.9704)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 3.8 - NYM 4.4
Simulated Avg: KC 3.8 - NYM 4.4
Win Probability: KC 43.6% - NYM 56.4%
Fair Moneyline: KC +130 / NYM -130
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 9.0: 34.5%
Under 9.0: 56.6%
KC +1.5: 60.9%
NYM -1.5: 39.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.1 - NYM 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.1 - NYM 2.0
F5 Win Prob: KC 52.6% - NYM 47.4% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -111 / NYM +111
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +124 +130 -1.1%
NYM ML -149 -130 -3.4%
KC +1.5 -165 -155 -1.4%
NYM -1.5 +136 +155 -3.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -17.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +4.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | July 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Paul Blackburn Home: Drew Rasmussen
ERA: 2.22 ERA: 2.78
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 0.9
K/9: 6.45 K/9: 8.91
BB/9: 3.02 BB/9: 1.58
FIP: 3.55 FIP: 3.12
IP: 44.7 IP: 97.0
xERA: 3.51 xERA: 3.17
xwOBA: 0.292 xwOBA: 0.278
Pitcher Edge: TB (Drew Rasmussen)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY TB Lg Avg
Record 50-42 54-36
R/Game 4.74 4.51 4.53
RA/Game 3.90 4.11 4.53
OPS 0.732 0.729 0.721
wOBA 0.314 0.314 0.310
ERA 3.40 3.72 4.21
FIP 3.59 3.98 4.06
WHIP 1.19 1.17 1.31
K/9 8.84 8.19 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.588 0.542 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.13 4.24 4.31
BP FIP 3.61 4.27 4.08
BP WHIP 1.20 1.28
BP K/9 8.43 8.21
BP Quality* 39.3 49.5 46.6
BP IP 324.7 339.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Amed Rosario, Giancarlo Stanton
Aaron Judge Outfielder OPS: 0.908 (214 AB)
Paul Goldschmidt First Base OPS: 0.802 (230 AB)
Amed Rosario Third Base OPS: 0.752 (148 AB)
Giancarlo Stanton Designated Hitter OPS: 0.724 (90 AB)
Run Adjustment: 88.8% of full strength
TB (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jonny DeLuca, Jake Fraley, Richie Palacios, Hunter Feduccia
Jonny DeLuca Outfielder OPS: 0.744 (159 AB)
Jake Fraley Outfielder OPS: 0.690 (82 AB)
Richie Palacios Second Base OPS: 0.677 (187 AB)
Hunter Feduccia Catcher OPS: 0.654 (112 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 3.4 - TB 3.3
Simulated Avg: NYY 3.4 - TB 3.3
Win Probability: NYY 50.8% - TB 49.1%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -103 / TB +103
Avg Total Runs: 6.8
Over 7.5: 38.9%
Under 7.5: 61.1%
NYY +1.5: 70.3%
TB -1.5: 29.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 1.6 - TB 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 1.6 - TB 1.8
F5 Win Prob: NYY 46.8% - TB 53.2% (Tie: 21.4%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY +114 / TB -114
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML +124 -103 +6.2%
TB ML -150 +103 -10.8%
NYY +1.5 -167 -236 +7.7%
TB -1.5 +137 +236 -12.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -13.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +8.8%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.1% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.8%
Fair ML: -157 | Kelly: 4.60%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00916
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | July 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: David Peterson Home: Trevor Rogers
ERA: 6.75 ERA: 4.7
WHIP: 1.67 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 7.91 K/9: 6.94
BB/9: 3.84 BB/9: 3.09
FIP: 3.97 FIP: 3.98
IP: 77.3 IP: 84.3
xERA: 5.14 xERA: 4.14
xwOBA: 0.347 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC BAL Lg Avg
Record 52-40 42-51
R/Game 5.10 4.57 4.53
RA/Game 4.54 4.92 4.53
OPS 0.749 0.716 0.721
wOBA 0.324 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.36 4.40 4.21
FIP 4.62 4.17 4.06
WHIP 1.27 1.37 1.31
K/9 7.92 8.01 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.552 0.466 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.48 4.25 4.31
BP FIP 4.87 3.97 4.08
BP WHIP 1.36 1.29
BP K/9 7.92 8.67
BP Quality* 53.8 45.2 46.6
BP IP 345.3 321.7
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Michael Conforto, Matt Shaw
Michael Conforto Unknown OPS: 0.840 (136 AB)
Matt Shaw Outfielder OPS: 0.737 (130 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.6% of full strength
BAL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser
Jackson Holliday Second Base OPS: 0.700 (113 AB)
Colton Cowser Outfielder OPS: 0.672 (195 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 31%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0055 (Temp: 1.0235 | Wind: 0.9823)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 4.8 - BAL 5.5
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.8 - BAL 5.5
Win Probability: CHC 43.3% - BAL 56.7%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +131 / BAL -131
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 9.5: 54.2%
Under 9.5: 45.8%
CHC -1.5: 29.5%
BAL +1.5: 70.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 2.7 - BAL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.7 - BAL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: CHC 45.2% - BAL 54.8% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +121 / BAL -121
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML +104 +131 -5.7%
BAL ML -125 -131 +1.1%
CHC -1.5 +161 +239 -8.8%
BAL +1.5 -197 -239 +4.2%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +1.8%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -6.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | July 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Gavin Williams Home: Bailey Ober
ERA: 3.89 ERA: 4.59
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 10.41 K/9: 6.21
BB/9: 3.05 BB/9: 2.43
FIP: 3.76 FIP: 4.87
IP: 106.3 IP: 66.7
xERA: 4.56 xERA: 4.37
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Gavin Williams)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE MIN Lg Avg
Record 47-46 46-47
R/Game 3.96 4.91 4.53
RA/Game 4.09 5.06 4.53
OPS 0.678 0.740 0.721
wOBA 0.295 0.319 0.310
ERA 3.80 4.67 4.21
FIP 3.87 4.17 4.06
WHIP 1.28 1.38 1.31
K/9 9.13 8.47 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.485 0.486 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.82 5.09 4.31
BP FIP 3.67 4.30 4.08
BP WHIP 1.34 1.52
BP K/9 10.08 8.00
BP Quality* 47.1 54.8 46.6
BP IP 309.0 348.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Matt Festa (B2B, 31 pitches)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0401 (Temp: 1.0164 | Wind: 1.0233)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 4.6 - MIN 5.2
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.6 - MIN 5.2
Win Probability: CLE 44.4% - MIN 55.6%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +125 / MIN -125
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 8.5: 58.1%
Under 8.5: 41.9%
CLE -1.5: 30.3%
MIN +1.5: 69.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 2.5 - MIN 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.5 - MIN 2.8
F5 Win Prob: CLE 45.3% - MIN 54.7% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +121 / MIN -121
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML -131 +125 -12.3%
MIN ML +109 -125 +7.8%
CLE -1.5 +124 +230 -14.3%
MIN +1.5 -149 -230 +9.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +5.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -10.5%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Minnesota Twins +1.5 (Run Line) [-149]
Model: 69.7% | Market: 59.8% | Edge: 9.9%
Fair ML: -230 | Kelly: 6.14%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00917
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] BOS starter (id 663776) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (the model never uses prior-season data).
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | July 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Player 663776 Home: Anthony Kay
ERA: 0.0 ERA: 4.29
WHIP: 0.0 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 0.0 K/9: 7.18
BB/9: 0.0 BB/9: 3.54
FIP: 0.0 FIP: 4.39
IP: 0.0 IP: 84.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 5.24
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.35
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Player 663776)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS CWS Lg Avg
Record 42-48 47-44
R/Game 4.11 4.71 4.53
RA/Game 3.92 4.56 4.53
OPS 0.702 0.730 0.721
wOBA 0.304 0.313 0.310
ERA 3.70 4.25 4.21
FIP 3.70 4.08 4.06
WHIP 1.23 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.69 8.61 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.522 0.515 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.91 4.51 4.31
BP FIP 3.88 4.37 4.08
BP WHIP 1.30 1.36
BP K/9 8.60 8.53
BP Quality* 43.8 53.4 46.6
BP IP 267.0 263.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Trevor Richards (B2B, 47 pitches)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Munetaka Murakami, Tristan Peters, Andrew Benintendi, Everson Pereira
Munetaka Murakami First Base OPS: 0.938 (200 AB)
Tristan Peters Outfielder OPS: 0.796 (238 AB)
Andrew Benintendi Designated Hitter OPS: 0.719 (251 AB)
Everson Pereira Outfielder OPS: 0.719 (69 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0152 (Temp: 1.0086 | Wind: 1.0066)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 4.6 - CWS 3.5
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.6 - CWS 3.5
Win Probability: BOS 61.3% - CWS 38.7%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -159 / CWS +159
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 9.0: 34.1%
Under 9.0: 56.9%
BOS -1.5: 44.1%
CWS +1.5: 55.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 2.5 - CWS 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.5 - CWS 1.7
F5 Win Prob: BOS 65.5% - CWS 34.5% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -190 / CWS +190
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML -101 -159 +11.1%
CWS ML -120 +159 -15.9%
BOS -1.5 +162 +127 +5.9%
CWS +1.5 -198 -127 -10.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -18.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +4.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | July 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jack Perkins Home: Framber Valdez
ERA: 6.75 ERA: 4.29
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 11.52 K/9: 6.97
BB/9: 3.46 BB/9: 3.22
FIP: 3.59 FIP: 4.04
IP: 54.7 IP: 100.7
xERA: 4.08 xERA: 4.4
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: ATH (Jack Perkins)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH DET Lg Avg
Record 41-51 42-50
R/Game 4.55 4.25 4.53
RA/Game 5.43 4.03 4.53
OPS 0.732 0.713 0.721
wOBA 0.314 0.308 0.310
ERA 5.13 3.69 4.21
FIP 4.79 3.75 4.06
WHIP 1.47 1.22 1.31
K/9 8.50 8.39 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.420 0.524 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.25 4.12 4.31
BP FIP 4.65 4.08 4.08
BP WHIP 1.54 1.35
BP K/9 9.30 8.54
BP Quality* 53.7 47.4 46.6
BP IP 326.0 332.0
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Keider Montero (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 26%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9936 (Temp: 1.0136 | Wind: 0.9802)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.4 - DET 4.7
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.4 - DET 4.7
Win Probability: ATH 47.1% - DET 52.9%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +112 / DET -112
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.0: 44.2%
Under 9.0: 46.8%
ATH +1.5: 63.3%
DET -1.5: 36.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.5 - DET 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.5 - DET 2.5
F5 Win Prob: ATH 49.0% - DET 51.0% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +104 / DET -104
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML +113 +112 +0.2%
DET ML -136 -112 -4.7%
ATH +1.5 -181 -172 -1.1%
DET -1.5 +149 +172 -3.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -8.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -5.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | July 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryce Miller Home: Janson Junk
ERA: 1.71 ERA: 4.8
WHIP: 0.66 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 10.59 K/9: 6.45
BB/9: 0.85 BB/9: 1.95
FIP: 2.76 FIP: 4.05
IP: 52.7 IP: 60.0
xERA: 2.09 xERA: 4.0
xwOBA: 0.226 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryce Miller)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA MIA Lg Avg
Record 47-46 51-42
R/Game 4.05 4.58 4.53
RA/Game 3.80 4.29 4.53
OPS 0.690 0.742 0.721
wOBA 0.301 0.319 0.310
ERA 3.54 4.04 4.21
FIP 3.30 3.77 4.06
WHIP 1.16 1.24 1.31
K/9 8.76 8.58 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.530 0.530 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.34 4.22 4.31
BP FIP 3.41 3.47 4.08
BP WHIP 1.30 1.22
BP K/9 8.61 9.54
BP Quality* 39.9 48.4 46.6
BP IP 256.0 270.7
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Cade Gibson (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0131 (Temp: 1.0186 | Wind: 0.9946)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 3.8 - MIA 2.9
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.8 - MIA 3.0
Win Probability: SEA 59.8% - MIA 40.2%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -149 / MIA +149
Avg Total Runs: 6.8
Over 8.0: 29.3%
Under 8.0: 61.0%
SEA -1.5: 40.5%
MIA +1.5: 59.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.1 - MIA 1.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.1 - MIA 1.3
F5 Win Prob: SEA 67.0% - MIA 33.0% (Tie: 20.5%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -203 / MIA +203
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -136 -149 +2.2%
MIA ML +113 +149 -6.8%
SEA -1.5 +129 +147 -3.2%
MIA +1.5 -156 -147 -1.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -23.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +8.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.6%
Fair ML: -157 | Kelly: 4.54%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00918
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | July 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jesús Luzardo Home: Brady Singer
ERA: 3.75 ERA: 5.03
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.54
K/9: 10.89 K/9: 7.76
BB/9: 2.87 BB/9: 3.28
FIP: 2.77 FIP: 5.63
IP: 103.3 IP: 82.3
xERA: 3.05 xERA: 5.56
xwOBA: 0.273 xwOBA: 0.359
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI CIN Lg Avg
Record 51-42 42-49
R/Game 4.43 4.22 4.53
RA/Game 4.54 4.85 4.53
OPS 0.709 0.702 0.721
wOBA 0.305 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.29 4.57 4.21
FIP 3.63 4.81 4.06
WHIP 1.33 1.46 1.31
K/9 9.88 8.12 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.489 0.437 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.70 4.93 4.31
BP FIP 3.62 5.05 4.08
BP WHIP 1.44 1.50
BP K/9 10.49 8.42
BP Quality* 48.9 57.6 46.6
BP IP 289.0 348.3
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tanner Banks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Alvarado (35 pitches yesterday)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Rhett Lowder (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Caleb Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0034 (Temp: 1.0167 | Wind: 0.9870)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 5.9 - CIN 4.0
Simulated Avg: PHI 5.9 - CIN 4.0
Win Probability: PHI 66.9% - CIN 33.1%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -202 / CIN +202
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 9.5: 50.4%
Under 9.5: 49.5%
PHI -1.5: 52.6%
CIN +1.5: 47.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 3.4 - CIN 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 3.4 - CIN 1.9
F5 Win Prob: PHI 72.5% - CIN 27.5% (Tie: 14.2%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -264 / CIN +264
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -167 -202 +4.4%
CIN ML +138 +202 -8.9%
PHI -1.5 -105 -111 +1.4%
CIN +1.5 -114 +111 -5.9%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -1.9%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -2.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | July 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Logan Henderson Home: Andre Pallante
ERA: 2.74 ERA: 3.6
WHIP: 1.04 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 11.74 K/9: 6.63
BB/9: 2.35 BB/9: 2.56
FIP: 2.4 FIP: 3.71
IP: 23.0 IP: 95.0
xERA: 2.98 xERA: 3.7
xwOBA: 0.27 xwOBA: 0.299
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Logan Henderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL STL Lg Avg
Record 58-34 48-43
R/Game 5.09 4.57 4.53
RA/Game 3.64 4.49 4.53
OPS 0.734 0.715 0.721
wOBA 0.315 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.32 4.16 4.21
FIP 3.42 4.00 4.06
WHIP 1.16 1.34 1.31
K/9 9.77 7.56 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.648 0.508 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.54 4.20 4.31
BP FIP 3.64 3.96 4.08
BP WHIP 1.30 1.35
BP K/9 8.94 7.75
BP Quality* 41.6 52.0 46.6
BP IP 313.0 325.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
STL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 25%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0037 (Temp: 1.0154 | Wind: 0.9884)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 4.8 - STL 3.7
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.8 - STL 3.7
Win Probability: MIL 61.2% - STL 38.9%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -157 / STL +157
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.5: 47.2%
Under 8.5: 52.8%
MIL -1.5: 44.6%
STL +1.5: 55.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.4 - STL 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.4 - STL 1.9
F5 Win Prob: MIL 60.1% - STL 39.9% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -151 / STL +151
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -136 -157 +3.5%
STL ML +113 +157 -8.1%
MIL -1.5 +124 +124 -0.1%
STL +1.5 -149 -124 -4.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -5.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +0.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | July 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Reid Detmers Home: Nathan Eovaldi
ERA: 4.13 ERA: 4.02
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 10.06 K/9: 9.4
BB/9: 2.92 BB/9: 2.05
FIP: 2.96 FIP: 4.04
IP: 104.7 IP: 105.3
xERA: 3.19 xERA: 4.02
xwOBA: 0.279 xwOBA: 0.311
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Reid Detmers)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA TEX Lg Avg
Record 37-56 46-46
R/Game 4.46 4.09 4.53
RA/Game 5.01 4.25 4.53
OPS 0.708 0.711 0.721
wOBA 0.306 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.63 4.07 4.21
FIP 4.17 3.92 4.06
WHIP 1.40 1.24 1.31
K/9 9.07 8.73 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.447 0.482 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.59 4.37 4.31
BP FIP 4.27 4.18 4.08
BP WHIP 1.42 1.27
BP K/9 9.70 7.80
BP Quality* 48.9 46.6 46.6
BP IP 313.7 257.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 96°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 25 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (96°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9933 (Temp: 1.0353 | Wind: 0.9595)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 4.5 - TEX 3.9
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.5 - TEX 3.9
Win Probability: LAA 55.6% - TEX 44.4%
Fair Moneyline: LAA -125 / TEX +125
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.0: 56.0%
Under 7.0: 34.3%
LAA +1.5: 71.7%
TEX -1.5: 28.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.5 - TEX 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.5 - TEX 1.9
F5 Win Prob: LAA 60.2% - TEX 39.8% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA -151 / TEX +151
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +118 -125 +9.7%
TEX ML -142 +125 -14.3%
LAA +1.5 -193 -253 +5.8%
TEX -1.5 +158 +253 -10.4%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +3.6%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -18.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | July 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Merrill Kelly Home: Griffin Canning
ERA: 5.71 ERA: 6.71
WHIP: 1.56 WHIP: 1.61
K/9: 5.5 K/9: 8.82
BB/9: 3.63 BB/9: 5.29
FIP: 5.94 FIP: 4.94
IP: 86.7 IP: 51.0
xERA: 7.78 xERA: 4.81
xwOBA: 0.412 xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: SD (Griffin Canning)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SD Lg Avg
Record 45-47 46-46
R/Game 4.24 3.93 4.53
RA/Game 4.57 4.38 4.53
OPS 0.690 0.674 0.721
wOBA 0.298 0.291 0.310
ERA 4.30 4.21 4.21
FIP 4.33 4.07 4.06
WHIP 1.29 1.34 1.31
K/9 6.94 8.29 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.466 0.451 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.82 3.68 4.31
BP FIP 3.69 3.57 4.08
BP WHIP 1.19 1.23
BP K/9 7.73 9.77
BP Quality* 43.5 43.8 46.6
BP IP 283.0 276.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ryan Thompson (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ron Marinaccio (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kyle Hart (37 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9795 (Temp: 0.9944 | Wind: 0.9850)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.4 - SD 4.9
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.4 - SD 4.9
Win Probability: ARI 45.1% - SD 54.9%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +122 / SD -122
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 9.0: 45.5%
Under 9.0: 45.4%
ARI +1.5: 60.8%
SD -1.5: 39.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.8 - SD 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.8 - SD 3.2
F5 Win Prob: ARI 44.1% - SD 55.9% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +127 / SD -127
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML +110 +122 -2.5%
SD ML -132 -122 -2.0%
ARI +1.5 -185 -155 -4.1%
SD -1.5 +152 +155 -0.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -6.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -7.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | July 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryan Feltner Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL SF Lg Avg
Record 38-56 38-54
R/Game 4.86 4.10 4.53
RA/Game 5.71 4.89 4.53
OPS 0.752 0.725 0.721
wOBA 0.323 0.308 0.310
ERA 5.46 4.56 4.21
FIP 4.60 4.17 4.06
WHIP 1.51 1.38 1.31
K/9 7.22 7.79 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.427 0.420 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.13 4.75 4.31
BP FIP 4.35 4.44 4.08
BP WHIP 1.52 1.49
BP K/9 7.60 7.71
BP Quality* 55.1 55.7 46.6
BP IP 342.3 301.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Ryan Walker (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Spencer Bivens (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 18 mph (gusts 28 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), strong wind in (18 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9575 (Temp: 0.9867 | Wind: 0.9705)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.7 - SF 4.3
Simulated Avg: COL 4.7 - SF 4.3
Win Probability: COL 53.2% - SF 46.8%
Fair Moneyline: COL -113 / SF +113
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.5: 51.7%
Under 8.5: 48.2%
COL +1.5: 69.0%
SF -1.5: 31.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.4 - SF 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.4 - SF 2.3
F5 Win Prob: COL 52.2% - SF 47.8% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: COL -109 / SF +109
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +113 -113 +6.2%
SF ML -136 +113 -10.8%
COL +1.5 -187 -223 +3.9%
SF -1.5 +153 +223 -8.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -0.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================