2026-07-10
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-10
Games: 15 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | July 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Aaron Nola Home: Jack Flaherty
ERA: 5.87 ERA: 4.6
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 9.2 K/9: 10.85
BB/9: 2.84 BB/9: 4.36
FIP: 4.69 FIP: 3.51
IP: 92.0 IP: 76.3
xERA: 4.25 xERA: 4.31
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: DET (Jack Flaherty)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI DET Lg Avg
Record 52-42 43-50
R/Game 4.39 4.25 4.53
RA/Game 4.49 4.00 4.53
OPS 0.706 0.713 0.721
wOBA 0.304 0.309 0.311
ERA 4.24 3.66 4.21
FIP 3.60 3.72 4.06
WHIP 1.32 1.22 1.31
K/9 9.93 8.42 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.490 0.527 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.67 4.10 4.31
BP FIP 3.60 4.08 4.08
BP WHIP 1.43 1.35
BP K/9 10.52 8.54
BP Quality* 48.7 47.3 46.6
BP IP 291.0 334.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0406 (Temp: 1.0143 | Wind: 1.0260)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 4.4 - DET 4.9
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.4 - DET 4.9
Win Probability: PHI 44.5% - DET 55.5%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +125 / DET -125
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 9.0: 45.2%
Under 9.0: 45.8%
PHI +1.5: 60.5%
DET -1.5: 39.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.4 - DET 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.4 - DET 2.8
F5 Win Prob: PHI 43.2% - DET 56.8% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +131 / DET -131
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML +102 +125 -5.0%
DET ML -123 -125 +0.3%
PHI +1.5 -198 -153 -5.9%
DET -1.5 +162 +153 +1.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -7.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -6.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | July 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brandon Sproat Home: Braxton Ashcraft
ERA: 5.13 ERA: 3.24
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 9.57 K/9: 10.14
BB/9: 4.22 BB/9: 2.08
FIP: 4.68 FIP: 2.98
IP: 79.0 IP: 108.3
xERA: 4.62 xERA: 3.17
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.278
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Braxton Ashcraft)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL PIT Lg Avg
Record 59-34 47-47
R/Game 5.12 5.23 4.53
RA/Game 3.65 4.88 4.53
OPS 0.735 0.763 0.721
wOBA 0.315 0.330 0.311
ERA 3.33 4.32 4.21
FIP 3.42 3.82 4.06
WHIP 1.16 1.31 1.31
K/9 9.74 9.20 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.650 0.532 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.51 4.78 4.31
BP FIP 3.65 4.29 4.08
BP WHIP 1.30 1.45
BP K/9 8.91 9.45
BP Quality* 44.6 57.3 46.6
BP IP 315.0 265.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Dennis Santana (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Cam Sanders (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Hunter Stratton (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 49%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9913 (Temp: 1.0079 | Wind: 0.9835)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 4.6 - PIT 5.5
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.6 - PIT 5.5
Win Probability: MIL 41.7% - PIT 58.3%
Fair Moneyline: MIL +140 / PIT -140
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 8.0: 60.4%
Under 8.0: 31.4%
MIL +1.5: 56.8%
PIT -1.5: 43.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.0 - PIT 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.0 - PIT 3.2
F5 Win Prob: MIL 31.4% - PIT 68.6% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +218 / PIT -218
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML +104 +140 -7.3%
PIT ML -126 -140 +2.5%
MIL +1.5 -198 -132 -9.6%
PIT -1.5 +162 +132 +5.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +8.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -21.0%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.4% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: -153 | Kelly: 4.22%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00919
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | July 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryan Weathers Home: Carson Palmquist
ERA: 4.29 ERA: 7.11
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.58
K/9: 10.14 K/9: 9.95
BB/9: 2.63 BB/9: 2.84
FIP: 3.98 FIP: 1.83
IP: 92.3 IP: 6.3
xERA: 4.62 xERA: 3.67
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Carson Palmquist)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY WSH Lg Avg
Record 51-42 48-46
R/Game 4.82 5.40 4.53
RA/Game 3.90 5.27 4.53
OPS 0.736 0.760 0.721
wOBA 0.316 0.325 0.311
ERA 3.41 4.76 4.21
FIP 3.58 4.51 4.06
WHIP 1.19 1.39 1.31
K/9 8.84 7.94 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.595 0.512 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.16 6.06 4.31
BP FIP 3.60 4.96 4.08
BP WHIP 1.20 1.60
BP K/9 8.44 8.56
BP Quality* 43.8 60.0 46.6
BP IP 333.7 327.0
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Angel Chivilli (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Justin Lawrence (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0026 (Temp: 1.0099 | Wind: 0.9928)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 5.8 - WSH 5.3
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.9 - WSH 5.3
Win Probability: NYY 54.4% - WSH 45.6%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -119 / WSH +119
Avg Total Runs: 11.2
Over 10.0: 52.4%
Under 10.0: 39.8%
NYY -1.5: 40.9%
WSH +1.5: 59.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 3.2 - WSH 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 3.2 - WSH 3.0
F5 Win Prob: NYY 52.6% - WSH 47.4% (Tie: 13.6%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -111 / WSH +111
F5 Avg Total: 6.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -162 -119 -7.5%
WSH ML +134 +119 +2.9%
NYY -1.5 -103 +145 -9.9%
WSH +1.5 -117 -145 +5.2%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -0.0%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -12.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | July 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Luinder Avila Home: Brandon Young
ERA: 5.05 ERA: 3.38
WHIP: 1.59 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 8.19 K/9: 7.22
BB/9: 5.4 BB/9: 3.49
FIP: 4.34 FIP: 3.84
IP: 51.7 IP: 77.3
xERA: 4.49 xERA: 4.34
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Brandon Young)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC BAL Lg Avg
Record 38-56 43-51
R/Game 4.31 4.55 4.53
RA/Game 5.11 4.89 4.53
OPS 0.716 0.716 0.721
wOBA 0.309 0.310 0.311
ERA 4.89 4.37 4.21
FIP 4.58 4.17 4.06
WHIP 1.45 1.37 1.31
K/9 7.78 7.98 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.423 0.467 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.51 4.24 4.31
BP FIP 5.13 3.96 4.08
BP WHIP 1.60 1.29
BP K/9 7.66 8.62
BP Quality* 63.6 46.7 46.6
BP IP 347.7 324.7
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Beck Way (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jose Cuas (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Lucas Erceg (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Strahm (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 26%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0020 (Temp: 1.0066 | Wind: 0.9954)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 4.1 - BAL 5.7
Simulated Avg: KC 4.1 - BAL 5.7
Win Probability: KC 35.6% - BAL 64.3%
Fair Moneyline: KC +180 / BAL -180
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 10.5: 41.1%
Under 10.5: 58.9%
KC +1.5: 50.8%
BAL -1.5: 49.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.2 - BAL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.2 - BAL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: KC 40.6% - BAL 59.4% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +146 / BAL -146
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +129 +180 -8.0%
BAL ML -156 -180 +3.4%
KC +1.5 -156 -103 -10.1%
BAL -1.5 +129 +103 +5.5%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -11.2%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +6.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | July 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shota Imanaga Home: Hunter Greene
ERA: 4.28 ERA: 21.6
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 3.3
K/9: 8.74 K/9: 18.9
BB/9: 2.27 BB/9: 10.8
FIP: 4.57 FIP: 6.43
IP: 103.0 IP: 3.3
xERA: 3.67 xERA: 10.31
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.458
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Shota Imanaga)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC CIN Lg Avg
Record 52-41 42-50
R/Game 5.06 4.17 4.53
RA/Game 4.53 4.80 4.53
OPS 0.749 0.698 0.721
wOBA 0.324 0.302 0.311
ERA 4.35 4.53 4.21
FIP 4.63 4.78 4.06
WHIP 1.27 1.45 1.31
K/9 7.90 8.11 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.551 0.436 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.50 4.91 4.31
BP FIP 4.87 5.03 4.08
BP WHIP 1.36 1.50
BP K/9 7.93 8.43
BP Quality* 58.4 57.4 46.6
BP IP 348.3 350.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Tyler Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 16%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0035 (Temp: 1.0149 | Wind: 0.9888)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 7.7 - CIN 5.0
Simulated Avg: CHC 7.7 - CIN 5.0
Win Probability: CHC 69.5% - CIN 30.5%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -228 / CIN +228
Avg Total Runs: 12.7
Over 9.5: 69.3%
Under 9.5: 30.7%
CHC -1.5: 57.9%
CIN +1.5: 42.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 4.8 - CIN 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 4.8 - CIN 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CHC 75.9% - CIN 24.1% (Tie: 10.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -314 / CIN +314
F5 Avg Total: 7.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -118 -228 +15.4%
CIN ML -102 +228 -20.0%
CHC -1.5 +140 -138 +16.2%
CIN +1.5 -170 +138 -20.9%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +16.9%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -21.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 9.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 16.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00920
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | July 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Luis Castillo Home: Nick Martinez
ERA: 4.79 ERA: 2.61
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 8.38 K/9: 5.49
BB/9: 2.94 BB/9: 1.62
FIP: 3.63 FIP: 3.72
IP: 82.7 IP: 100.0
xERA: 4.56 xERA: 4.68
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA TB Lg Avg
Record 47-47 54-37
R/Game 4.05 4.51 4.53
RA/Game 3.84 4.20 4.53
OPS 0.691 0.730 0.721
wOBA 0.302 0.314 0.311
ERA 3.57 3.81 4.21
FIP 3.32 4.02 4.06
WHIP 1.17 1.17 1.31
K/9 8.72 8.18 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.525 0.532 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.37 4.31 4.31
BP FIP 3.41 4.33 4.08
BP WHIP 1.31 1.29
BP K/9 8.55 8.19
BP Quality* 41.6 51.6 46.6
BP IP 259.0 346.3
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Michael Rucker (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 3.8 - TB 4.2
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.8 - TB 4.2
Win Probability: SEA 44.9% - TB 55.1%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +123 / TB -123
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.0: 42.4%
Under 8.0: 48.0%
SEA -1.5: 28.5%
TB +1.5: 71.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 1.9 - TB 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 1.9 - TB 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SEA 40.3% - TB 59.7% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +148 / TB -148
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -105 +123 -6.4%
TB ML -115 -123 +1.7%
SEA -1.5 +159 +250 -10.1%
TB +1.5 -193 -250 +5.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -10.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -4.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | July 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Parker Messick Home: Sandy Alcantara
ERA: 2.8 ERA: 4.0
WHIP: 1.08 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 9.25 K/9: 6.7
BB/9: 2.72 BB/9: 2.4
FIP: 3.05 FIP: 3.67
IP: 106.0 IP: 123.7
xERA: 3.22 xERA: 3.78
xwOBA: 0.28 xwOBA: 0.302
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE MIA Lg Avg
Record 48-46 52-42
R/Game 3.97 4.62 4.53
RA/Game 4.06 4.29 4.53
OPS 0.679 0.745 0.721
wOBA 0.295 0.320 0.311
ERA 3.78 4.04 4.21
FIP 3.85 3.80 4.06
WHIP 1.27 1.24 1.31
K/9 9.19 8.59 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.489 0.534 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.79 4.26 4.31
BP FIP 3.64 3.53 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.23
BP K/9 10.10 9.51
BP Quality* 48.3 50.4 46.6
BP IP 311.0 272.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Lake Bachar (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0138 (Temp: 1.0183 | Wind: 0.9956)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 3.6 - MIA 3.8
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.6 - MIA 3.8
Win Probability: CLE 47.3% - MIA 52.7%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +112 / MIA -112
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.0: 45.8%
Under 7.0: 43.7%
CLE -1.5: 29.7%
MIA +1.5: 70.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 1.9 - MIA 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.9 - MIA 1.8
F5 Win Prob: CLE 51.9% - MIA 48.1% (Tie: 20.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -108 / MIA +108
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML +101 +112 -2.5%
MIA ML -122 -112 -2.2%
CLE -1.5 +178 +236 -6.2%
MIA +1.5 -219 -236 +1.6%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -6.6%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -8.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets
Regular Season | July 10, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sonny Gray Home: Nolan McLean
ERA: 2.61 ERA: 3.73
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 8.23 K/9: 10.48
BB/9: 2.31 BB/9: 3.29
FIP: 3.49 FIP: 3.15
IP: 89.7 IP: 101.3
xERA: 3.7 xERA: 3.41
xwOBA: 0.299 xwOBA: 0.288
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS NYM Lg Avg
Record 43-48 40-54
R/Game 4.09 4.19 4.53
RA/Game 3.89 4.79 4.53
OPS 0.701 0.687 0.721
wOBA 0.304 0.297 0.311
ERA 3.67 4.32 4.21
FIP 3.67 3.85 4.06
WHIP 1.23 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.69 9.24 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.523 0.439 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.82 3.72 4.31
BP FIP 3.80 3.70 4.08
BP WHIP 1.29 1.24
BP K/9 8.61 9.45
BP Quality* 46.0 43.3 46.6
BP IP 276.0 246.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Justin Slaten (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0126 | Wind: 0.9875)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 3.3 - NYM 3.6
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.3 - NYM 3.6
Win Probability: BOS 46.7% - NYM 53.3%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +114 / NYM -114
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 7.5: 41.2%
Under 7.5: 58.8%
BOS +1.5: 65.9%
NYM -1.5: 34.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 1.8 - NYM 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.7 - NYM 1.8
F5 Win Prob: BOS 48.5% - NYM 51.5% (Tie: 20.6%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +106 / NYM -106
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML +113 +114 -0.2%
NYM ML -136 -114 -4.4%
BOS +1.5 -181 -194 +1.5%
NYM -1.5 +149 +194 -6.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -11.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +6.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | July 10, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jacob Lopez Home: Sean Burke
ERA: 7.04 ERA: 3.56
WHIP: 1.84 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 7.04 K/9: 9.67
BB/9: 5.7 BB/9: 3.01
FIP: 6.1 FIP: 3.54
IP: 53.7 IP: 98.7
xERA: 4.05 xERA: 3.72
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.3
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Sean Burke)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH CWS Lg Avg
Record 41-52 47-45
R/Game 4.52 4.67 4.53
RA/Game 5.42 4.53 4.53
OPS 0.728 0.727 0.721
wOBA 0.313 0.312 0.311
ERA 5.12 4.23 4.21
FIP 4.81 4.09 4.06
WHIP 1.47 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.51 8.58 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.417 0.514 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.19 4.46 4.31
BP FIP 4.63 4.36 4.08
BP WHIP 1.53 1.35
BP K/9 9.35 8.52
BP Quality* 54.8 53.1 46.6
BP IP 331.0 266.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jack Perkins (67 pitches yesterday)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jordan Hicks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0342 (Temp: 1.0018 | Wind: 1.0324)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.5 - CWS 6.3
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.5 - CWS 6.3
Win Probability: ATH 34.4% - CWS 65.6%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +191 / CWS -191
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 9.0: 57.0%
Under 9.0: 35.3%
ATH +1.5: 48.5%
CWS -1.5: 51.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.2 - CWS 3.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.2 - CWS 3.6
F5 Win Prob: ATH 30.1% - CWS 69.9% (Tie: 13.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +232 / CWS -232
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML +139 +191 -7.4%
CWS ML -168 -191 +2.9%
ATH +1.5 -148 +106 -11.1%
CWS -1.5 +122 -106 +6.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +4.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -17.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | July 10, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Hunter Brown Home: Cal Quantrill
ERA: 3.38 ERA: 3.35
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 10.74 K/9: 6.02
BB/9: 5.22 BB/9: 2.68
FIP: 4.23 FIP: 4.27
IP: 29.3 IP: 40.3
xERA: 3.41 xERA: 4.87
xwOBA: 0.288 xwOBA: 0.339
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU TEX Lg Avg
Record 46-49 47-46
R/Game 4.55 4.12 4.53
RA/Game 5.05 4.27 4.53
OPS 0.725 0.714 0.721
wOBA 0.310 0.310 0.311
ERA 4.78 4.08 4.21
FIP 4.66 3.89 4.06
WHIP 1.40 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.75 8.80 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.452 0.484 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.36 4.40 4.31
BP FIP 4.47 4.17 4.08
BP WHIP 1.34 1.28
BP K/9 8.79 7.86
BP Quality* 50.0 52.7 46.6
BP IP 353.3 260.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Alimber Santa (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Cole Winn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 93°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (93°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9950 (Temp: 1.0321 | Wind: 0.9640)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 5.0 - TEX 4.6
Simulated Avg: HOU 5.0 - TEX 4.6
Win Probability: HOU 53.5% - TEX 46.5%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -115 / TEX +115
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.5: 55.9%
Under 8.5: 44.1%
HOU -1.5: 38.2%
TEX +1.5: 61.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.7 - TEX 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.7 - TEX 2.4
F5 Win Prob: HOU 53.4% - TEX 46.6% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -115 / TEX +115
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML -143 -115 -5.3%
TEX ML +119 +115 +0.8%
HOU -1.5 +119 +162 -7.5%
TEX +1.5 -144 -162 +2.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +3.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | July 10, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Grayson Rodriguez Home: Zebby Matthews
ERA: 8.06 ERA: 4.43
WHIP: 1.83 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 8.42 K/9: 7.52
BB/9: 5.26 BB/9: 2.36
FIP: 5.01 FIP: 4.99
IP: 25.7 IP: 61.0
xERA: 7.22 xERA: 4.46
xwOBA: 0.4 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA MIN Lg Avg
Record 37-57 46-48
R/Game 4.48 4.88 4.53
RA/Game 5.03 5.06 4.53
OPS 0.708 0.736 0.721
wOBA 0.306 0.318 0.311
ERA 4.66 4.68 4.21
FIP 4.19 4.20 4.06
WHIP 1.40 1.37 1.31
K/9 9.09 8.48 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.447 0.483 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 5.13 4.31
BP FIP 4.23 4.36 4.08
BP WHIP 1.41 1.52
BP K/9 9.68 8.01
BP Quality* 53.1 58.2 46.6
BP IP 318.0 352.7
Bullpen Edge: LAA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brent Suter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Bachman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Kendry Rojas (47 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0110 (Temp: 1.0214 | Wind: 0.9898)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 5.2 - MIN 6.7
Simulated Avg: LAA 5.2 - MIN 6.7
Win Probability: LAA 38.6% - MIN 61.4%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +159 / MIN -159
Avg Total Runs: 11.9
Over 9.5: 64.9%
Under 9.5: 35.1%
LAA +1.5: 51.9%
MIN -1.5: 48.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.8 - MIN 4.0
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.8 - MIN 4.0
F5 Win Prob: LAA 35.4% - MIN 64.6% (Tie: 12.3%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +183 / MIN -183
F5 Avg Total: 6.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +109 +159 -9.3%
MIN ML -132 -159 +4.5%
LAA +1.5 -186 -108 -13.1%
MIN -1.5 +153 +108 +8.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +12.5%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -17.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 9.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00921
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | July 10, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Chris Sale Home: Kyle Leahy
ERA: 2.27 ERA: 3.86
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 10.61 K/9: 7.61
BB/9: 2.27 BB/9: 3.44
FIP: 2.59 FIP: 3.91
IP: 95.0 IP: 86.3
xERA: 3.44 xERA: 5.56
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: 0.359
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Chris Sale)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL STL Lg Avg
Record 54-38 48-44
R/Game 4.93 4.57 4.53
RA/Game 3.90 4.53 4.53
OPS 0.728 0.713 0.721
wOBA 0.313 0.308 0.311
ERA 3.61 4.21 4.21
FIP 3.98 4.02 4.06
WHIP 1.24 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.57 7.57 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.606 0.503 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.35 4.21 4.31
BP FIP 3.60 3.97 4.08
BP WHIP 1.15 1.34
BP K/9 8.77 7.82
BP Quality* 42.4 50.4 46.6
BP IP 282.3 329.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: JR Ritchie (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 36%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0121 (Temp: 1.0234 | Wind: 0.9890)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 5.2 - STL 3.6
Simulated Avg: ATL 5.2 - STL 3.6
Win Probability: ATL 64.7% - STL 35.3%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -183 / STL +183
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 49.5%
Under 8.0: 41.1%
ATL -1.5: 48.9%
STL +1.5: 51.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.9 - STL 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.9 - STL 1.7
F5 Win Prob: ATL 69.9% - STL 30.1% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -232 / STL +232
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -168 -183 +2.0%
STL ML +139 +183 -6.5%
ATL -1.5 +104 +105 -0.2%
STL +1.5 -125 -105 -4.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -2.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | July 10, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shane Bieber Home: JP Sears
ERA: 9.0 ERA: 4.7
WHIP: 2.08 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 6.23 K/9: 8.22
BB/9: 4.85 BB/9: 4.11
FIP: 9.33 FIP: 6.04
IP: 13.0 IP: 15.3
xERA: 13.43 xERA: 5.9
xwOBA: 0.502 xwOBA: 0.368
Pitcher Edge: SD (JP Sears)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR SD Lg Avg
Record 44-49 46-47
R/Game 4.04 3.90 4.53
RA/Game 4.42 4.37 4.53
OPS 0.688 0.671 0.721
wOBA 0.297 0.290 0.311
ERA 4.08 4.20 4.21
FIP 3.93 4.06 4.06
WHIP 1.30 1.34 1.31
K/9 9.00 8.31 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.459 0.449 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.67 3.69 4.31
BP FIP 3.54 3.62 4.08
BP WHIP 1.31 1.23
BP K/9 9.02 9.77
BP Quality* 41.5 44.1 46.6
BP IP 240.3 278.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9782 (Temp: 0.9932 | Wind: 0.9849)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 3.7 - SD 4.5
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.8 - SD 4.5
Win Probability: TOR 41.5% - SD 58.5%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +141 / SD -141
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.5: 45.3%
Under 8.5: 54.7%
TOR -1.5: 26.2%
SD +1.5: 73.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.2 - SD 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.2 - SD 3.0
F5 Win Prob: TOR 37.7% - SD 62.3% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +165 / SD -165
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML +104 +141 -7.5%
SD ML -125 -141 +2.9%
TOR -1.5 +167 +282 -11.3%
SD +1.5 -204 -282 +6.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +2.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | July 10, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Eduardo Rodriguez Home: Shohei Ohtani
ERA: 2.25 ERA: 1.79
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 0.95
K/9: 6.17 K/9: 9.98
BB/9: 3.17 BB/9: 2.73
FIP: 3.99 FIP: 2.4
IP: 108.0 IP: 85.7
xERA: 5.01 xERA: 2.7
xwOBA: 0.343 xwOBA: 0.257
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Shohei Ohtani)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI LAD Lg Avg
Record 46-47 61-33
R/Game 4.23 5.30 4.53
RA/Game 4.53 3.55 4.53
OPS 0.690 0.783 0.721
wOBA 0.298 0.335 0.311
ERA 4.26 3.48 4.21
FIP 4.32 3.66 4.06
WHIP 1.28 1.13 1.31
K/9 6.96 9.06 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.469 0.675 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.79 3.89 4.31
BP FIP 3.66 3.54 4.08
BP WHIP 1.18 1.27
BP K/9 7.77 9.83
BP Quality* 43.1 43.3 46.6
BP IP 285.0 305.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9902 (Temp: 0.9999 | Wind: 0.9904)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 2.8 - LAD 4.8
Simulated Avg: ARI 2.8 - LAD 4.8
Win Probability: ARI 28.9% - LAD 71.1%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +247 / LAD -247
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 8.5: 38.5%
Under 8.5: 61.5%
ARI +1.5: 46.3%
LAD -1.5: 53.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 1.2 - LAD 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 1.2 - LAD 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ARI 23.9% - LAD 76.1% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +319 / LAD -319
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML +215 +247 -2.9%
LAD ML -267 -247 -1.6%
ARI +1.5 -102 +116 -4.2%
LAD -1.5 -118 -116 -0.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -13.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +9.1%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.1%
Fair ML: -160 | Kelly: 4.78%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00922
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | July 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tanner Gordon Home: Robbie Ray
ERA: 6.95 ERA: 3.45
WHIP: 1.59 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 9.13 K/9: 7.61
BB/9: 1.99 BB/9: 4.07
FIP: 4.89 FIP: 4.68
IP: 45.3 IP: 101.7
xERA: 4.87 xERA: 4.56
xwOBA: 0.339 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL SF Lg Avg
Record 38-57 39-54
R/Game 4.83 4.14 4.53
RA/Game 5.74 4.86 4.53
OPS 0.750 0.730 0.721
wOBA 0.322 0.310 0.311
ERA 5.49 4.53 4.21
FIP 4.63 4.17 4.06
WHIP 1.52 1.37 1.31
K/9 7.25 7.81 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.422 0.427 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.18 4.67 4.31
BP FIP 4.35 4.42 4.08
BP WHIP 1.53 1.48
BP K/9 7.67 7.74
BP Quality* 55.4 52.2 46.6
BP IP 346.0 310.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: TJ Shook (52 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Victor Vodnik (34 pitches yesterday)
SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ryan Walker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 17 mph (gusts 30 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), strong wind in (17 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9567 (Temp: 0.9830 | Wind: 0.9733)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 4.6 - SF 4.8
Simulated Avg: COL 4.6 - SF 4.8
Win Probability: COL 48.1% - SF 51.9%
Fair Moneyline: COL +108 / SF -108
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.5: 54.7%
Under 8.5: 45.3%
COL +1.5: 63.7%
SF -1.5: 36.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 2.5 - SF 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.5 - SF 2.7
F5 Win Prob: COL 46.5% - SF 53.5% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +115 / SF -115
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +131 +108 +4.8%
SF ML -158 -108 -9.4%
COL +1.5 -163 -175 +1.7%
SF -1.5 +135 +175 -6.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +2.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -7.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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