2026-07-11
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-11
Games: 16 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | July 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brandon Sproat Home: Braxton Ashcraft
ERA: 5.13 ERA: 3.24
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 9.57 K/9: 10.14
BB/9: 4.22 BB/9: 2.08
FIP: 4.68 FIP: 2.98
IP: 79.0 IP: 108.3
xERA: 4.61 xERA: 3.17
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.278
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Braxton Ashcraft)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL PIT Lg Avg
Record 59-34 47-47
R/Game 5.12 5.23 4.53
RA/Game 3.65 4.88 4.52
OPS 0.735 0.763 0.721
wOBA 0.315 0.330 0.311
ERA 3.33 4.32 4.21
FIP 3.42 3.82 4.07
WHIP 1.16 1.31 1.31
K/9 9.74 9.20 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.650 0.532 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.24 4.78 4.31
BP FIP 3.62 4.29 4.09
BP WHIP 1.26 1.45
BP K/9 9.01 9.45
BP Quality* 40.2 51.3 46.7
BP IP 291.7 265.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Andrew Vaughn, Jackson Chourio, Gary Sánchez, Brandon Lockridge
Andrew Vaughn First Base OPS: 0.893 (144 AB)
Jackson Chourio Outfielder OPS: 0.842 (250 AB)
Gary Sánchez Catcher OPS: 0.820 (136 AB)
Brandon Lockridge Outfielder OPS: 0.709 (85 AB)
Run Adjustment: 88.0% of full strength
PIT (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Endy Rodríguez, Spencer Horwitz, Oneil Cruz
Endy Rodríguez Catcher OPS: 0.858 (100 AB)
Spencer Horwitz First Base OPS: 0.841 (246 AB)
Oneil Cruz Outfielder OPS: 0.822 (250 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.5% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 20%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0293 (Temp: 1.0159 | Wind: 1.0132)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 4.0 - PIT 5.0
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.0 - PIT 5.0
Win Probability: MIL 40.0% - PIT 60.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIL +150 / PIT -150
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.0: 42.0%
Under 9.0: 49.0%
MIL -1.5: 25.2%
PIT +1.5: 74.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 1.9 - PIT 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 1.9 - PIT 3.0
F5 Win Prob: MIL 31.0% - PIT 69.0% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +222 / PIT -222
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -126 +150 -15.7%
PIT ML +104 -150 +11.0%
MIL -1.5 +129 +296 -18.4%
PIT +1.5 -156 -296 +13.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -10.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -3.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -156 | Edge: 13.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00923
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Game 2)
Regular Season | July 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane Drohan Home: Bubba Chandler
ERA: 2.97 ERA: 4.82
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.44
K/9: 8.62 K/9: 7.93
BB/9: 2.83 BB/9: 5.22
FIP: 3.15 FIP: 4.53
IP: 63.7 IP: 89.7
xERA: 3.49 xERA: 4.28
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Shane Drohan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL PIT Lg Avg
Record 59-34 47-47
R/Game 5.12 5.23 4.53
RA/Game 3.65 4.88 4.52
OPS 0.735 0.763 0.721
wOBA 0.315 0.330 0.311
ERA 3.33 4.32 4.21
FIP 3.42 3.82 4.07
WHIP 1.16 1.31 1.31
K/9 9.74 9.20 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.650 0.532 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.24 4.78 4.31
BP FIP 3.62 4.29 4.09
BP WHIP 1.26 1.45
BP K/9 9.01 9.45
BP Quality* 40.2 52.8 46.7
BP IP 291.7 265.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Andrew Vaughn, Jackson Chourio, Gary Sánchez, Brandon Lockridge
Andrew Vaughn First Base OPS: 0.893 (144 AB)
Jackson Chourio Outfielder OPS: 0.842 (250 AB)
Gary Sánchez Catcher OPS: 0.820 (136 AB)
Brandon Lockridge Outfielder OPS: 0.709 (85 AB)
Run Adjustment: 88.0% of full strength
PIT (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Endy Rodríguez, Spencer Horwitz, Oneil Cruz
Endy Rodríguez Catcher OPS: 0.858 (100 AB)
Spencer Horwitz First Base OPS: 0.841 (246 AB)
Oneil Cruz Outfielder OPS: 0.822 (250 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.5% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 20%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0293 (Temp: 1.0159 | Wind: 1.0132)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 4.9 - PIT 3.9
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.9 - PIT 3.9
Win Probability: MIL 59.6% - PIT 40.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -148 / PIT +148
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 9.0: 40.7%
Under 9.0: 50.1%
MIL -1.5: 43.7%
PIT +1.5: 56.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.7 - PIT 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.7 - PIT 2.1
F5 Win Prob: MIL 60.6% - PIT 39.4% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -154 / PIT +154
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -126 -148 +3.8%
PIT ML +104 +148 -8.6%
MIL -1.5 +129 +129 -0.0%
PIT +1.5 -156 -129 -4.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -11.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -2.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | July 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryan Johnson Home: Joe Ryan
ERA: 6.99 ERA: 2.85
WHIP: 1.55 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 7.62 K/9: 10.52
BB/9: 3.18 BB/9: 1.98
FIP: 6.14 FIP: 2.67
IP: 28.3 IP: 104.3
xERA: 4.68 xERA: 3.07
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.274
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Joe Ryan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA MIN Lg Avg
Record 38-57 46-49
R/Game 4.47 4.86 4.53
RA/Game 5.01 5.05 4.52
OPS 0.708 0.736 0.721
wOBA 0.307 0.318 0.311
ERA 4.65 4.67 4.21
FIP 4.18 4.20 4.07
WHIP 1.40 1.37 1.31
K/9 9.03 8.45 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.448 0.483 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.53 5.09 4.31
BP FIP 4.21 4.34 4.09
BP WHIP 1.41 1.51
BP K/9 9.68 8.02
BP Quality* 54.3 54.9 46.7
BP IP 321.7 355.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Sam Bachman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Samy Natera Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Travis Adams (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0060 (Temp: 1.0263 | Wind: 0.9802)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 3.9 - MIN 6.3
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.9 - MIN 6.3
Win Probability: LAA 28.9% - MIN 71.1%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +246 / MIN -246
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.0: 53.2%
Under 9.0: 38.5%
LAA +1.5: 43.0%
MIN -1.5: 57.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 1.7 - MIN 3.7
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.7 - MIN 3.7
F5 Win Prob: LAA 21.8% - MIN 78.2% (Tie: 13.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +360 / MIN -360
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +144 +246 -12.1%
MIN ML -175 -246 +7.4%
LAA +1.5 -132 +132 -13.9%
MIN -1.5 +109 -132 +9.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +0.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -13.9%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Minnesota Twins -1.5 (Run Line) [+109]
Model: 57.0% | Market: 47.8% | Edge: 9.1%
Fair ML: -132 | Kelly: 4.38%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00924
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | July 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Gage Jump Home: Bryan Hudson
ERA: 3.77 ERA: 2.25
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 8.58 K/9: 8.78
BB/9: 2.72 BB/9: 3.6
FIP: 3.31 FIP: 2.68
IP: 43.0 IP: 40.0
xERA: 4.05 xERA: 3.56
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.294
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Bryan Hudson)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH CWS Lg Avg
Record 41-53 48-45
R/Game 4.48 4.77 4.53
RA/Game 5.51 4.49 4.52
OPS 0.726 0.732 0.721
wOBA 0.312 0.314 0.311
ERA 5.22 4.19 4.21
FIP 4.82 4.07 4.07
WHIP 1.48 1.33 1.31
K/9 8.53 8.61 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.406 0.528 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.37 4.43 4.31
BP FIP 4.69 4.34 4.09
BP WHIP 1.55 1.35
BP K/9 9.35 8.52
BP Quality* 58.8 51.4 46.7
BP IP 335.0 268.3
Bullpen Edge: CWS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mason Barnett (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aaron Civale (58 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Justin Sterner (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
UNAVAIL: Tyler Davis (B2B, 30 pitches)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Tristan Peters, Sam Antonacci, Andrew Benintendi, Everson Pereira
Tristan Peters Outfielder OPS: 0.841 (244 AB)
Sam Antonacci Outfielder OPS: 0.789 (257 AB)
Andrew Benintendi Designated Hitter OPS: 0.730 (258 AB)
Everson Pereira Outfielder OPS: 0.719 (69 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.5% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0626 (Temp: 1.0075 | Wind: 1.0547)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 4.0 - CWS 4.8
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.0 - CWS 4.8
Win Probability: ATH 41.2% - CWS 58.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +143 / CWS -143
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 50.0%
Under 8.5: 50.0%
ATH -1.5: 26.3%
CWS +1.5: 73.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 1.8 - CWS 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 1.8 - CWS 2.2
F5 Win Prob: ATH 41.5% - CWS 58.5% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +141 / CWS -141
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML -105 +143 -10.0%
CWS ML -115 -143 +5.3%
ATH -1.5 +150 +280 -13.7%
CWS +1.5 -183 -280 +9.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | July 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Freeland Home: Tyler Mahle
ERA: 7.46 ERA: 5.7
WHIP: 1.61 WHIP: 1.49
K/9: 7.68 K/9: 8.75
BB/9: 1.98 BB/9: 3.68
FIP: 4.75 FIP: 4.58
IP: 82.0 IP: 71.0
xERA: 5.78 xERA: 4.13
xwOBA: 0.365 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL SF Lg Avg
Record 39-57 39-55
R/Game 4.82 4.13 4.53
RA/Game 5.71 4.85 4.52
OPS 0.750 0.732 0.721
wOBA 0.322 0.311 0.311
ERA 5.47 4.53 4.21
FIP 4.65 4.16 4.07
WHIP 1.52 1.38 1.31
K/9 7.21 7.82 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.423 0.427 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.16 4.70 4.31
BP FIP 4.37 4.39 4.09
BP WHIP 1.53 1.48
BP K/9 7.63 7.79
BP Quality* 56.9 53.7 46.7
BP IP 349.0 314.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jordan Romano (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Erik Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9724 (Temp: 0.9980 | Wind: 0.9744)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 4.9 - SF 5.1
Simulated Avg: COL 4.9 - SF 5.1
Win Probability: COL 48.1% - SF 51.9%
Fair Moneyline: COL +108 / SF -108
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 8.5: 59.9%
Under 8.5: 40.1%
COL +1.5: 63.2%
SF -1.5: 36.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.7 - SF 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.7 - SF 3.0
F5 Win Prob: COL 46.5% - SF 53.5% (Tie: 14.3%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +115 / SF -115
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +124 +108 +3.4%
SF ML -149 -108 -7.9%
COL +1.5 -168 -172 +0.5%
SF -1.5 +139 +172 -5.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +7.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -12.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.5%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.93%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00925
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | July 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cam Schlittler Home: PJ Poulin
ERA: 2.01 ERA: 2.83
WHIP: 0.93 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 10.53 K/9: 5.66
BB/9: 1.69 BB/9: 5.14
FIP: 2.48 FIP: 5.04
IP: 112.0 IP: 35.0
xERA: 2.92 xERA: 5.52
xwOBA: 0.267 xwOBA: 0.358
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY WSH Lg Avg
Record 52-42 48-47
R/Game 4.82 5.38 4.53
RA/Game 3.89 5.26 4.52
OPS 0.740 0.760 0.721
wOBA 0.317 0.324 0.311
ERA 3.40 4.76 4.21
FIP 3.59 4.54 4.07
WHIP 1.19 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.83 7.97 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.596 0.510 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.17 6.08 4.31
BP FIP 3.66 5.10 4.09
BP WHIP 1.20 1.61
BP K/9 8.40 8.54
BP Quality* 45.6 62.2 46.7
BP IP 337.3 322.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Angel Chivilli (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Justin Lawrence (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Zack Littell (69 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 19%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0100 (Temp: 1.0222 | Wind: 0.9881)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 5.6 - WSH 4.1
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.6 - WSH 4.1
Win Probability: NYY 63.7% - WSH 36.2%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -176 / WSH +176
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 9.0: 48.6%
Under 9.0: 42.5%
NYY -1.5: 48.6%
WSH +1.5: 51.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.9 - WSH 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.9 - WSH 1.8
F5 Win Prob: NYY 68.5% - WSH 31.5% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -217 / WSH +217
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -198 -176 -2.7%
WSH ML +162 +176 -1.9%
NYY -1.5 -119 +106 -5.7%
WSH +1.5 -102 -106 +0.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -3.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -9.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets
Regular Season | July 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Freddy Peralta
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS NYM Lg Avg
Record 44-48 40-55
R/Game 4.11 4.17 4.53
RA/Game 3.87 4.80 4.52
OPS 0.704 0.688 0.721
wOBA 0.305 0.297 0.311
ERA 3.65 4.32 4.21
FIP 3.68 3.87 4.07
WHIP 1.23 1.32 1.31
K/9 8.63 9.25 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.527 0.436 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.81 3.84 4.31
BP FIP 3.83 3.82 4.09
BP WHIP 1.29 1.26
BP K/9 8.52 9.45
BP Quality* 47.6 45.9 46.7
BP IP 279.0 248.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cionel Pérez (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Xzavion Curry (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 16%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0131 (Temp: 1.0013 | Wind: 1.0117)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 3.9 - NYM 4.2
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.9 - NYM 4.2
Win Probability: BOS 46.4% - NYM 53.6%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +115 / NYM -115
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.0: 42.8%
Under 8.0: 47.5%
BOS +1.5: 64.1%
NYM -1.5: 35.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.2 - NYM 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.2 - NYM 2.3
F5 Win Prob: BOS 48.2% - NYM 51.8% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +107 / NYM -107
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML +134 +115 +3.7%
NYM ML -162 -115 -8.3%
BOS +1.5 -158 -179 +2.9%
NYM -1.5 +131 +179 -7.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -9.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -4.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | July 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Logan Gilbert Home: Griffin Jax
ERA: 3.19 ERA: 3.6
WHIP: 0.95 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 9.56 K/9: 9.42
BB/9: 1.84 BB/9: 3.05
FIP: 3.29 FIP: 4.42
IP: 107.3 IP: 65.0
xERA: 3.62 xERA: 5.1
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.346
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Logan Gilbert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA TB Lg Avg
Record 47-48 55-37
R/Game 4.03 4.53 4.53
RA/Game 3.87 4.17 4.52
OPS 0.689 0.735 0.721
wOBA 0.301 0.316 0.311
ERA 3.61 3.79 4.21
FIP 3.37 4.01 4.07
WHIP 1.18 1.17 1.31
K/9 8.70 8.14 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.518 0.538 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.44 4.27 4.31
BP FIP 3.44 4.29 4.09
BP WHIP 1.31 1.28
BP K/9 8.52 8.20
BP Quality* 43.5 48.2 46.7
BP IP 262.0 350.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Nick Davila (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Wilcox (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 4.0 - TB 3.8
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.0 - TB 3.8
Win Probability: SEA 52.0% - TB 48.0%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -108 / TB +108
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.0: 49.3%
Under 7.0: 40.5%
SEA -1.5: 34.6%
TB +1.5: 65.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.2 - TB 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.2 - TB 2.0
F5 Win Prob: SEA 55.2% - TB 44.8% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -123 / TB +123
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -105 -108 +0.7%
TB ML -115 +108 -5.4%
SEA -1.5 +164 +189 -3.3%
TB +1.5 -200 -189 -1.2%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -3.0%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -11.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | July 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tanner Bibee Home: Eury Pérez
ERA: 4.06 ERA: 3.84
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 7.11 K/9: 10.05
BB/9: 2.54 BB/9: 3.62
FIP: 4.81 FIP: 4.19
IP: 106.3 IP: 79.7
xERA: 4.77 xERA: 4.16
xwOBA: 0.336 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Eury Pérez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE MIA Lg Avg
Record 49-46 52-43
R/Game 3.96 4.59 4.53
RA/Game 4.04 4.27 4.52
OPS 0.677 0.744 0.721
wOBA 0.294 0.320 0.311
ERA 3.76 4.02 4.21
FIP 3.88 3.79 4.07
WHIP 1.26 1.23 1.31
K/9 9.12 8.59 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.490 0.533 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.78 4.26 4.31
BP FIP 3.68 3.53 4.09
BP WHIP 1.33 1.23
BP K/9 10.06 9.51
BP Quality* 51.5 42.9 46.7
BP IP 314.0 272.7
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: DEPLETED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Hunter Gaddis (3 consecutive days)
UNAVAIL: Cade Smith (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0101 (Temp: 1.0198 | Wind: 0.9905)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 3.5 - MIA 4.8
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.5 - MIA 4.8
Win Probability: CLE 35.9% - MIA 64.1%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +179 / MIA -179
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.0: 45.1%
Under 8.0: 45.3%
CLE +1.5: 52.9%
MIA -1.5: 47.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.0 - MIA 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.0 - MIA 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CLE 38.7% - MIA 61.3% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +159 / MIA -159
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML +128 +179 -8.0%
MIA ML -155 -179 +3.3%
CLE +1.5 -169 -112 -10.0%
MIA -1.5 +139 +112 +5.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -7.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | July 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cristopher Sánchez Home: Casey Mize
ERA: 2.62 ERA: 2.64
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 0.98
K/9: 10.25 K/9: 9.04
BB/9: 1.8 BB/9: 2.01
FIP: 2.61 FIP: 2.67
IP: 120.3 IP: 71.7
xERA: 3.19 xERA: 3.01
xwOBA: 0.279 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI DET Lg Avg
Record 52-43 44-50
R/Game 4.37 4.31 4.53
RA/Game 4.55 3.98 4.52
OPS 0.704 0.716 0.721
wOBA 0.303 0.310 0.311
ERA 4.30 3.64 4.21
FIP 3.64 3.73 4.07
WHIP 1.32 1.21 1.31
K/9 9.93 8.41 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.482 0.536 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.73 4.06 4.31
BP FIP 3.69 4.06 4.09
BP WHIP 1.43 1.35
BP K/9 10.44 8.49
BP Quality* 49.3 47.1 46.7
BP IP 293.0 337.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Max Lazar (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Beau Brieske (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0553 (Temp: 1.0162 | Wind: 1.0385)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 3.6 - DET 3.8
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.6 - DET 3.8
Win Probability: PHI 47.2% - DET 52.8%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +112 / DET -112
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.5: 45.6%
Under 7.5: 54.4%
PHI -1.5: 29.5%
DET +1.5: 70.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 1.7 - DET 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 1.7 - DET 1.7
F5 Win Prob: PHI 49.4% - DET 50.6% (Tie: 21.3%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +103 / DET -103
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -143 +112 -11.6%
DET ML +119 -112 +7.1%
PHI -1.5 +124 +239 -15.1%
DET +1.5 -150 -239 +10.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -6.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +2.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Detroit Tigers +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -150 | Edge: 10.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00926
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | July 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Noah Cameron Home: Kyle Bradish
ERA: 4.77 ERA: 3.75
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 8.32 K/9: 9.03
BB/9: 3.05 BB/9: 4.29
FIP: 3.73 FIP: 4.07
IP: 88.7 IP: 100.7
xERA: 4.9 xERA: 3.88
xwOBA: 0.34 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: KC (Noah Cameron)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC BAL Lg Avg
Record 38-57 44-51
R/Game 4.29 4.56 4.53
RA/Game 5.11 4.87 4.52
OPS 0.718 0.717 0.721
wOBA 0.309 0.310 0.311
ERA 4.89 4.36 4.21
FIP 4.59 4.17 4.07
WHIP 1.45 1.37 1.31
K/9 7.78 7.97 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.422 0.469 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.52 4.22 4.31
BP FIP 5.12 3.94 4.09
BP WHIP 1.59 1.29
BP K/9 7.70 8.62
BP Quality* 60.5 49.5 46.7
BP IP 350.7 326.7
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Matt Strahm (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jose Cuas (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 28%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0220 (Temp: 1.0129 | Wind: 1.0090)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.3 - BAL 5.6
Simulated Avg: KC 4.3 - BAL 5.6
Win Probability: KC 38.5% - BAL 61.5%
Fair Moneyline: KC +160 / BAL -160
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 9.0: 50.4%
Under 9.0: 41.0%
KC +1.5: 53.8%
BAL -1.5: 46.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.3 - BAL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.3 - BAL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: KC 42.0% - BAL 58.0% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +138 / BAL -138
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +130 +160 -5.0%
BAL ML -157 -160 +0.5%
KC +1.5 -162 -117 -8.0%
BAL -1.5 +134 +117 +3.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -2.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -11.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | July 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Peter Lambert Home: Kumar Rocker
ERA: 3.26 ERA: 3.95
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 8.33 K/9: 7.9
BB/9: 3.6 BB/9: 3.42
FIP: 4.08 FIP: 3.87
IP: 80.0 IP: 84.3
xERA: 3.54 xERA: 4.58
xwOBA: 0.293 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU TEX Lg Avg
Record 46-50 48-46
R/Game 4.53 4.15 4.53
RA/Game 5.07 4.26 4.52
OPS 0.725 0.717 0.721
wOBA 0.310 0.311 0.311
ERA 4.81 4.07 4.21
FIP 4.70 3.91 4.07
WHIP 1.40 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.74 8.72 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.449 0.488 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.43 4.43 4.31
BP FIP 4.52 4.21 4.09
BP WHIP 1.35 1.28
BP K/9 8.81 7.80
BP Quality* 49.0 50.0 46.7
BP IP 355.3 262.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Winn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9820 (Temp: 1.0266 | Wind: 0.9566)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.7 - TEX 4.2
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.7 - TEX 4.2
Win Probability: HOU 55.1% - TEX 44.9%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -123 / TEX +123
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 50.6%
Under 8.5: 49.4%
HOU -1.5: 38.9%
TEX +1.5: 61.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.5 - TEX 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.5 - TEX 2.1
F5 Win Prob: HOU 57.1% - TEX 42.9% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -133 / TEX +133
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +100 -123 +5.1%
TEX ML -120 +123 -9.7%
HOU -1.5 +162 +157 +0.7%
TEX +1.5 -198 -157 -5.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -1.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | July 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Javier Assad Home: Nick Lodolo
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 4.68
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 5.27 K/9: 7.18
BB/9: 2.4 BB/9: 3.75
FIP: 5.04 FIP: 4.56
IP: 56.3 IP: 57.7
xERA: 4.65 xERA: 6.12
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.374
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Nick Lodolo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC CIN Lg Avg
Record 52-42 43-50
R/Game 5.01 4.17 4.53
RA/Game 4.52 4.75 4.52
OPS 0.745 0.701 0.721
wOBA 0.323 0.303 0.311
ERA 4.35 4.48 4.21
FIP 4.63 4.73 4.07
WHIP 1.28 1.44 1.31
K/9 7.91 8.20 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.547 0.441 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.68 4.79 4.31
BP FIP 4.81 4.90 4.09
BP WHIP 1.39 1.48
BP K/9 7.93 8.62
BP Quality* 56.0 54.7 46.7
BP IP 374.7 359.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jake Woodford (43 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 27%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0195 (Temp: 1.0060 | Wind: 1.0134)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 6.4 - CIN 5.3
Simulated Avg: CHC 6.4 - CIN 5.3
Win Probability: CHC 58.3% - CIN 41.7%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -140 / CIN +140
Avg Total Runs: 11.8
Over 10.0: 56.8%
Under 10.0: 35.8%
CHC -1.5: 45.4%
CIN +1.5: 54.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 3.7 - CIN 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 3.7 - CIN 2.8
F5 Win Prob: CHC 60.9% - CIN 39.1% (Tie: 12.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -156 / CIN +156
F5 Avg Total: 6.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -105 -140 +7.1%
CIN ML -114 +140 -11.6%
CHC -1.5 +148 +121 +5.0%
CIN +1.5 -179 -121 -9.5%
O 10.0 -110 N/A +4.4%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -16.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | July 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Reynaldo López Home: Matthew Liberatore
ERA: 3.18 ERA: 5.34
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.53
K/9: 8.1 K/9: 8.42
BB/9: 3.81 BB/9: 3.59
FIP: 4.18 FIP: 4.95
IP: 56.7 IP: 87.7
xERA: 4.49 xERA: 5.49
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.357
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Reynaldo López)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL STL Lg Avg
Record 54-39 49-44
R/Game 4.89 4.54 4.53
RA/Game 3.88 4.49 4.52
OPS 0.724 0.712 0.721
wOBA 0.311 0.307 0.311
ERA 3.60 4.17 4.21
FIP 3.97 3.99 4.07
WHIP 1.23 1.33 1.31
K/9 8.61 7.56 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.604 0.504 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.35 4.16 4.31
BP FIP 3.62 3.93 4.09
BP WHIP 1.15 1.33
BP K/9 8.80 7.81
BP Quality* 47.0 50.0 46.7
BP IP 287.3 335.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Victor Mederos (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Danny Young (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0317 (Temp: 1.0107 | Wind: 1.0208)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 5.7 - STL 4.6
Simulated Avg: ATL 5.8 - STL 4.6
Win Probability: ATL 59.9% - STL 40.1%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -149 / STL +149
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 8.0: 62.4%
Under 8.0: 29.7%
ATL -1.5: 45.2%
STL +1.5: 54.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 3.4 - STL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 3.4 - STL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: ATL 62.7% - STL 37.3% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -168 / STL +168
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -107 -149 +8.2%
STL ML -112 +149 -12.7%
ATL -1.5 +152 +121 +5.5%
STL +1.5 -185 -121 -10.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +10.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -22.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00927
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | July 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trey Yesavage Home: Walker Buehler
ERA: 3.31 ERA: 5.07
WHIP: 1.08 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 8.35 K/9: 8.28
BB/9: 3.93 BB/9: 3.21
FIP: 3.8 FIP: 3.97
IP: 73.3 IP: 87.0
xERA: 3.1 xERA: 4.46
xwOBA: 0.275 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR SD Lg Avg
Record 45-49 46-48
R/Game 4.05 3.89 4.53
RA/Game 4.40 4.37 4.52
OPS 0.688 0.672 0.721
wOBA 0.297 0.291 0.311
ERA 4.07 4.20 4.21
FIP 3.93 4.06 4.07
WHIP 1.30 1.33 1.31
K/9 8.99 8.28 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.462 0.447 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.65 3.70 4.31
BP FIP 3.51 3.66 4.09
BP WHIP 1.31 1.23
BP K/9 8.99 9.70
BP Quality* 42.8 45.8 46.7
BP IP 244.3 282.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jhony Brito (50 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ron Marinaccio (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9977 (Temp: 0.9998 | Wind: 0.9980)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.9 - SD 3.3
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.9 - SD 3.3
Win Probability: TOR 56.5% - SD 43.5%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -130 / SD +130
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 8.0: 33.6%
Under 8.0: 56.7%
TOR -1.5: 38.0%
SD +1.5: 62.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.2 - SD 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.2 - SD 1.7
F5 Win Prob: TOR 60.5% - SD 39.5% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -153 / SD +153
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML -107 -130 +4.8%
SD ML -112 +130 -9.4%
TOR -1.5 +155 +163 -1.2%
SD +1.5 -188 -163 -3.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -18.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +4.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | July 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brandon Pfaadt Home: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
ERA: 4.84 ERA: 2.49
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 0.88
K/9: 7.26 K/9: 8.6
BB/9: 3.35 BB/9: 1.81
FIP: 4.76 FIP: 3.16
IP: 48.3 IP: 104.7
xERA: 4.43 xERA: 3.31
xwOBA: 0.325 xwOBA: 0.284
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Yoshinobu Yamamoto)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI LAD Lg Avg
Record 47-47 61-34
R/Game 4.28 5.27 4.53
RA/Game 4.51 3.61 4.52
OPS 0.689 0.784 0.721
wOBA 0.298 0.335 0.311
ERA 4.25 3.50 4.21
FIP 4.32 3.66 4.07
WHIP 1.28 1.14 1.31
K/9 6.98 9.09 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.476 0.667 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.78 3.95 4.31
BP FIP 3.63 3.54 4.09
BP WHIP 1.18 1.28
BP K/9 7.81 9.90
BP Quality* 42.9 48.1 46.7
BP IP 288.0 314.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Will Klein (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9889 (Temp: 1.0050 | Wind: 0.9840)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 3.4 - LAD 5.3
Simulated Avg: ARI 3.4 - LAD 5.3
Win Probability: ARI 31.4% - LAD 68.6%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +219 / LAD -219
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 9.0: 40.1%
Under 9.0: 50.9%
ARI +1.5: 47.5%
LAD -1.5: 52.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 1.6 - LAD 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 1.6 - LAD 3.1
F5 Win Prob: ARI 25.9% - LAD 74.1% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +286 / LAD -286
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML +226 +219 +0.7%
LAD ML -283 -219 -5.3%
ARI +1.5 +104 +111 -1.5%
LAD -1.5 -126 -111 -3.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -12.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -1.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================