2026-07-12
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-12
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | July 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Robert Gasser Home: Paul Skenes
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 3.58
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 8.31 K/9: 10.75
BB/9: 2.91 BB/9: 2.01
FIP: 4.62 FIP: 2.77
IP: 43.3 IP: 103.0
xERA: 3.43 xERA: 2.74
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: 0.259
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL PIT Lg Avg
Record 59-36 49-47
R/Game 5.09 5.23 4.52
RA/Game 3.67 4.86 4.51
OPS 0.735 0.763 0.721
wOBA 0.316 0.330 0.311
ERA 3.36 4.31 4.21
FIP 3.44 3.83 4.07
WHIP 1.16 1.32 1.31
K/9 9.71 9.18 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.645 0.533 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.37 4.71 4.30
BP FIP 3.67 4.28 4.09
BP WHIP 1.27 1.45
BP K/9 8.97 9.34
BP Quality* 45.4 55.6 46.6
BP IP 307.0 269.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Carmen Mlodzinski (57 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Andrew Vaughn, William Contreras, Brandon Lockridge
Andrew Vaughn First Base OPS: 0.881 (146 AB)
William Contreras Catcher OPS: 0.742 (344 AB)
Brandon Lockridge Outfielder OPS: 0.709 (85 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.6% of full strength
PIT (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Endy Rodríguez, Spencer Horwitz, Oneil Cruz, Tyler Callihan
Endy Rodríguez Catcher OPS: 0.858 (100 AB)
Spencer Horwitz First Base OPS: 0.841 (246 AB)
Oneil Cruz Outfielder OPS: 0.822 (250 AB)
Tyler Callihan Outfielder OPS: 0.785 (77 AB)
Run Adjustment: 88.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 4.1 - PIT 4.5
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.1 - PIT 4.5
Win Probability: MIL 45.8% - PIT 54.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIL +118 / PIT -118
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.5: 47.8%
Under 8.5: 52.2%
MIL +1.5: 62.4%
PIT -1.5: 37.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 1.8 - PIT 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 1.8 - PIT 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIL 37.7% - PIT 62.3% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +165 / PIT -165
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML +104 +118 -3.2%
PIT ML -125 -118 -1.3%
MIL +1.5 -204 -166 -4.7%
PIT -1.5 +167 +166 +0.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -0.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | July 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Seth Lugo Home: Shane Baz
ERA: 4.56 ERA: 4.21
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 7.15 K/9: 7.57
BB/9: 2.86 BB/9: 3.53
FIP: 4.27 FIP: 3.69
IP: 100.7 IP: 107.0
xERA: 5.41 xERA: 4.51
xwOBA: 0.355 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Shane Baz)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC BAL Lg Avg
Record 38-58 45-51
R/Game 4.26 4.57 4.52
RA/Game 5.11 4.83 4.51
OPS 0.713 0.718 0.721
wOBA 0.307 0.311 0.311
ERA 4.91 4.32 4.21
FIP 4.62 4.15 4.07
WHIP 1.45 1.36 1.31
K/9 7.81 7.98 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.417 0.475 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.53 4.19 4.30
BP FIP 5.15 3.91 4.09
BP WHIP 1.59 1.28
BP K/9 7.70 8.67
BP Quality* 57.7 49.2 46.6
BP IP 351.7 329.0
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Tyler Tolbert, Nick Loftin, Maikel Garcia
Tyler Tolbert Unknown OPS: 0.907 (54 AB)
Nick Loftin Third Base OPS: 0.749 (175 AB)
Maikel Garcia Third Base OPS: 0.693 (268 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.0% of full strength
BAL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Adley Rutschman, Jeremiah Jackson
Adley Rutschman Catcher OPS: 0.763 (241 AB)
Jeremiah Jackson Second Base OPS: 0.666 (203 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.5% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0168 (Temp: 1.0149 | Wind: 1.0019)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 4.0 - BAL 5.5
Simulated Avg: KC 4.0 - BAL 5.5
Win Probability: KC 36.5% - BAL 63.5%
Fair Moneyline: KC +174 / BAL -174
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 9.5: 46.8%
Under 9.5: 53.2%
KC +1.5: 52.2%
BAL -1.5: 47.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.2 - BAL 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.2 - BAL 2.9
F5 Win Prob: KC 38.8% - BAL 61.2% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +158 / BAL -158
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +123 +174 -8.3%
BAL ML -149 -174 +3.6%
KC +1.5 -162 -109 -9.6%
BAL -1.5 +134 +109 +5.0%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -5.6%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +0.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | July 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Will Warren Home: Cade Cavalli
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 3.88
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 9.06 K/9: 10.2
BB/9: 2.99 BB/9: 3.01
FIP: 3.89 FIP: 2.96
IP: 93.3 IP: 92.7
xERA: 4.24 xERA: 4.13
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Cade Cavalli)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY WSH Lg Avg
Record 53-42 48-48
R/Game 4.81 5.34 4.52
RA/Game 3.87 5.25 4.51
OPS 0.742 0.759 0.721
wOBA 0.318 0.324 0.311
ERA 3.39 4.75 4.21
FIP 3.61 4.57 4.07
WHIP 1.19 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.82 7.95 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.598 0.508 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.15 6.13 4.30
BP FIP 3.65 5.20 4.09
BP WHIP 1.20 1.61
BP K/9 8.40 8.53
BP Quality* 48.5 65.9 46.6
BP IP 339.7 326.0
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: David Bednar (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tom Cosgrove (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Krook (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Miles Mikolas (59 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Amed Rosario, Giancarlo Stanton
Aaron Judge Outfielder OPS: 0.908 (214 AB)
Paul Goldschmidt First Base OPS: 0.809 (239 AB)
Amed Rosario Third Base OPS: 0.747 (150 AB)
Giancarlo Stanton Designated Hitter OPS: 0.724 (90 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.1% of full strength
WSH (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Joey Wiemer, Curtis Mead, Brady House
Joey Wiemer Outfielder OPS: 0.912 (70 AB)
Curtis Mead Third Base OPS: 0.830 (257 AB)
Brady House Third Base OPS: 0.681 (163 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.5% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0311 (Temp: 1.0123 | Wind: 1.0185)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 4.6 - WSH 5.0
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.6 - WSH 5.0
Win Probability: NYY 45.5% - WSH 54.5%
Fair Moneyline: NYY +120 / WSH -120
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 9.0: 47.8%
Under 9.0: 43.5%
NYY -1.5: 30.8%
WSH +1.5: 69.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.0 - WSH 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.0 - WSH 2.7
F5 Win Prob: NYY 39.1% - WSH 60.9% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY +156 / WSH -156
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -105 +120 -5.7%
WSH ML -115 -120 +1.0%
NYY -1.5 +153 +224 -8.7%
WSH +1.5 -186 -224 +4.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -4.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -8.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | July 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Matthew Boyd Home: Andrew Abbott
ERA: 4.31 ERA: 3.92
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 9.98 K/9: 7.22
BB/9: 2.72 BB/9: 4.01
FIP: 3.1 FIP: 4.89
IP: 39.7 IP: 101.0
xERA: 4.55 xERA: 4.77
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.336
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Matthew Boyd)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC CIN Lg Avg
Record 53-42 43-51
R/Game 5.01 4.16 4.52
RA/Game 4.51 4.76 4.51
OPS 0.746 0.704 0.721
wOBA 0.323 0.304 0.311
ERA 4.34 4.48 4.21
FIP 4.65 4.74 4.07
WHIP 1.28 1.44 1.31
K/9 7.91 8.18 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.548 0.439 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.61 4.81 4.30
BP FIP 4.83 4.92 4.09
BP WHIP 1.39 1.48
BP K/9 7.95 8.60
BP Quality* 55.8 56.4 46.6
BP IP 369.0 363.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Michael Conforto, Matt Shaw, Miguel Amaya
Michael Conforto Unknown OPS: 0.817 (140 AB)
Matt Shaw Outfielder OPS: 0.737 (130 AB)
Miguel Amaya Catcher OPS: 0.704 (131 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.4% of full strength
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Nathaniel Lowe, Dane Myers, Blake Dunn
Nathaniel Lowe Designated Hitter OPS: 0.800 (198 AB)
Dane Myers Outfielder OPS: 0.743 (117 AB)
Blake Dunn Outfielder OPS: 0.722 (142 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0253 (Temp: 1.0159 | Wind: 1.0093)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 5.7 - CIN 4.5
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.8 - CIN 4.5
Win Probability: CHC 61.0% - CIN 39.0%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -156 / CIN +156
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.0: 53.5%
Under 9.0: 38.1%
CHC -1.5: 46.6%
CIN +1.5: 53.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 3.1 - CIN 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 3.1 - CIN 2.2
F5 Win Prob: CHC 63.8% - CIN 36.2% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -176 / CIN +176
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -131 -156 +4.3%
CIN ML +108 +156 -9.0%
CHC -1.5 +123 +115 +1.8%
CIN +1.5 -148 -115 -6.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +1.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -14.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets
Regular Season | July 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Payton Tolle Home: Zach Thornton
ERA: 3.14 ERA: 4.35
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 8.96 K/9: 8.71
BB/9: 2.69 BB/9: 2.61
FIP: 3.3 FIP: 3.29
IP: 80.3 IP: 10.3
xERA: 3.07 xERA: 5.41
xwOBA: 0.274 xwOBA: 0.355
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS NYM Lg Avg
Record 45-48 40-56
R/Game 4.11 4.12 4.52
RA/Game 3.83 4.79 4.51
OPS 0.704 0.685 0.721
wOBA 0.305 0.296 0.311
ERA 3.61 4.31 4.21
FIP 3.68 3.89 4.07
WHIP 1.23 1.32 1.31
K/9 8.62 9.25 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.532 0.432 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.71 3.81 4.30
BP FIP 3.83 3.80 4.09
BP WHIP 1.29 1.26
BP K/9 8.52 9.44
BP Quality* 50.3 47.2 46.6
BP IP 286.3 250.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Danny Coulombe (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Justin Slaten (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: A.J. Minter (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Willson Contreras, Masataka Yoshida, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Roman Anthony
Willson Contreras First Base OPS: 0.921 (312 AB)
Masataka Yoshida Designated Hitter OPS: 0.729 (177 AB)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa Second Base OPS: 0.705 (119 AB)
Roman Anthony Outfielder OPS: 0.675 (109 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.8% of full strength
NYM (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jared Young, Francisco Alvarez, Bo Bichette, MJ Melendez, Luis Robert Jr.
Jared Young First Base OPS: 0.735 (140 AB)
Francisco Alvarez Catcher OPS: 0.733 (209 AB)
Bo Bichette Third Base OPS: 0.678 (379 AB)
MJ Melendez Designated Hitter OPS: 0.665 (120 AB)
Luis Robert Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.656 (85 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (85°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0341 (Temp: 1.0193 | Wind: 1.0145)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 3.8 - NYM 3.5
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.7 - NYM 3.5
Win Probability: BOS 52.6% - NYM 47.4%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -111 / NYM +111
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 8.0: 34.0%
Under 8.0: 56.4%
BOS -1.5: 34.2%
NYM +1.5: 65.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 2.1 - NYM 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.1 - NYM 1.6
F5 Win Prob: BOS 59.9% - NYM 40.1% (Tie: 19.4%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -149 / NYM +149
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML -110 -111 +0.2%
NYM ML -110 +111 -5.0%
BOS -1.5 +143 +193 -7.0%
NYM +1.5 -174 -193 +2.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -18.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +4.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | July 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Emerson Hancock Home: Ian Seymour
ERA: 3.23 ERA: 4.11
WHIP: 1.01 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 8.48 K/9: 10.57
BB/9: 2.21 BB/9: 3.08
FIP: 3.55 FIP: 3.69
IP: 97.7 IP: 61.3
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 3.21
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.28
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA TB Lg Avg
Record 47-49 56-37
R/Game 4.00 4.55 4.52
RA/Game 3.90 4.14 4.51
OPS 0.688 0.738 0.721
wOBA 0.300 0.317 0.311
ERA 3.63 3.76 4.21
FIP 3.38 4.00 4.07
WHIP 1.18 1.17 1.31
K/9 8.67 8.17 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.512 0.543 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.45 4.22 4.30
BP FIP 3.49 4.25 4.09
BP WHIP 1.31 1.27
BP K/9 8.48 8.29
BP Quality* 43.7 50.8 46.6
BP IP 263.3 354.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Michael Rucker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Wilcox (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Dominic Canzone, Brendan Donovan, Julio Rodríguez, Luke Raley, Jhonny Pereda, Colt Emerson
Dominic Canzone Designated Hitter OPS: 0.864 (227 AB)
Brendan Donovan Third Base OPS: 0.838 (84 AB)
Julio Rodríguez Outfielder OPS: 0.747 (344 AB)
Luke Raley Outfielder OPS: 0.741 (236 AB)
Jhonny Pereda Catcher OPS: 0.689 (63 AB)
Colt Emerson Shortstop OPS: 0.671 (144 AB)
Run Adjustment: 86.0% of full strength
TB (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ryan Vilade, Jonny DeLuca, Jake Fraley
Ryan Vilade Outfielder OPS: 0.794 (138 AB)
Jonny DeLuca Outfielder OPS: 0.717 (165 AB)
Jake Fraley Outfielder OPS: 0.690 (82 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 3.1 - TB 3.8
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.1 - TB 3.8
Win Probability: SEA 41.5% - TB 58.5%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +141 / TB -141
Avg Total Runs: 6.9
Over 8.0: 30.9%
Under 8.0: 59.5%
SEA +1.5: 61.0%
TB -1.5: 39.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 1.6 - TB 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 1.6 - TB 2.1
F5 Win Prob: SEA 39.7% - TB 60.3% (Tie: 20.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +152 / TB -152
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML +123 +141 -3.4%
TB ML -148 -141 -1.2%
SEA +1.5 -181 -156 -3.4%
TB -1.5 +149 +156 -1.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -21.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +7.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.1%
Fair ML: -147 | Kelly: 3.72%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00928
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | July 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zack Wheeler Home: Tarik Skubal
ERA: 2.28 ERA: 3.06
WHIP: 0.91 WHIP: 0.95
K/9: 10.14 K/9: 10.7
BB/9: 2.07 BB/9: 1.27
FIP: 3.03 FIP: 2.99
IP: 87.0 IP: 70.7
xERA: 2.69 xERA: 3.19
xwOBA: 0.257 xwOBA: 0.279
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI DET Lg Avg
Record 53-43 44-51
R/Game 4.36 4.28 4.52
RA/Game 4.52 3.98 4.51
OPS 0.702 0.716 0.721
wOBA 0.303 0.310 0.311
ERA 4.28 3.63 4.21
FIP 3.64 3.70 4.07
WHIP 1.32 1.21 1.31
K/9 9.90 8.41 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.534 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.70 4.02 4.30
BP FIP 3.70 4.03 4.09
BP WHIP 1.43 1.34
BP K/9 10.37 8.52
BP Quality* 49.3 46.8 46.6
BP IP 295.0 340.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kenley Jansen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Gleyber Torres, Javier Báez, Hao-Yu Lee
Gleyber Torres Second Base OPS: 0.790 (157 AB)
Javier Báez Shortstop OPS: 0.677 (78 AB)
Hao-Yu Lee Second Base OPS: 0.677 (149 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (85°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0539 (Temp: 1.0193 | Wind: 1.0339)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 3.8 - DET 3.5
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.8 - DET 3.5
Win Probability: PHI 52.2% - DET 47.8%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -109 / DET +109
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 7.0: 44.9%
Under 7.0: 44.4%
PHI +1.5: 70.4%
DET -1.5: 29.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 1.8 - DET 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 1.8 - DET 1.5
F5 Win Prob: PHI 56.5% - DET 43.5% (Tie: 21.3%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -130 / DET +130
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML +108 -109 +4.1%
DET ML -131 +109 -8.9%
PHI +1.5 -216 -238 +2.1%
DET -1.5 +176 +238 -6.6%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -7.5%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -7.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | July 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Joey Cantillo Home: Tyler Phillips
ERA: 3.66 ERA: 3.28
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 6.69
BB/9: 4.41 BB/9: 4.14
FIP: 4.19 FIP: 4.4
IP: 96.0 IP: 74.0
xERA: 4.07 xERA: 4.8
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE MIA Lg Avg
Record 50-46 52-44
R/Game 3.96 4.55 4.52
RA/Game 4.01 4.27 4.51
OPS 0.677 0.742 0.721
wOBA 0.294 0.319 0.311
ERA 3.73 4.02 4.21
FIP 3.88 3.76 4.07
WHIP 1.26 1.24 1.31
K/9 9.07 8.62 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.494 0.529 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.76 4.28 4.30
BP FIP 3.67 3.49 4.09
BP WHIP 1.33 1.23
BP K/9 10.01 9.57
BP Quality* 46.9 44.2 46.6
BP IP 316.3 275.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: William Kempner (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Austin Hedges, José Ramírez, Angel Martínez, David Fry, Rhys Hoskins
Austin Hedges Catcher OPS: 0.762 (128 AB)
José Ramírez Third Base OPS: 0.757 (268 AB)
Angel Martínez Outfielder OPS: 0.718 (226 AB)
David Fry Unknown OPS: 0.690 (128 AB)
Rhys Hoskins First Base OPS: 0.680 (214 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.8% of full strength
MIA (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Griffin Conine, Kyle Stowers, Owen Caissie, Joe Mack
Griffin Conine Outfielder OPS: 0.828 (77 AB)
Kyle Stowers Outfielder OPS: 0.784 (266 AB)
Owen Caissie Outfielder OPS: 0.756 (218 AB)
Joe Mack Catcher OPS: 0.715 (154 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0211 (Temp: 1.0241 | Wind: 0.9970)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 3.3 - MIA 3.9
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.3 - MIA 3.9
Win Probability: CLE 43.3% - MIA 56.7%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +131 / MIA -131
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 7.5: 43.9%
Under 7.5: 56.1%
CLE -1.5: 25.8%
MIA +1.5: 74.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 1.9 - MIA 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.9 - MIA 2.1
F5 Win Prob: CLE 46.2% - MIA 53.8% (Tie: 19.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +117 / MIA -117
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML -106 +131 -8.2%
MIA ML -114 -131 +3.4%
CLE -1.5 +158 +288 -13.0%
MIA +1.5 -193 -288 +8.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -8.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +3.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | July 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: José Soriano Home: Taj Bradley
ERA: 3.4 ERA: 3.67
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 9.76 K/9: 10.54
BB/9: 4.33 BB/9: 3.57
FIP: 3.85 FIP: 3.72
IP: 106.0 IP: 95.7
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 3.77
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.302
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA MIN Lg Avg
Record 38-58 47-49
R/Game 4.46 4.86 4.52
RA/Game 5.01 5.03 4.51
OPS 0.708 0.739 0.721
wOBA 0.307 0.319 0.311
ERA 4.65 4.65 4.21
FIP 4.19 4.18 4.07
WHIP 1.40 1.38 1.31
K/9 8.99 8.45 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.447 0.485 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.55 4.96 4.30
BP FIP 4.19 4.32 4.09
BP WHIP 1.42 1.49
BP K/9 9.67 8.13
BP Quality* 52.9 52.7 46.6
BP IP 324.7 391.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mitch Farris (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Sam Bachman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Woo-Suk Go (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Byron Buxton, Alex Jackson, Victor Caratini
Byron Buxton Outfielder OPS: 0.903 (306 AB)
Alex Jackson Catcher OPS: 0.728 (54 AB)
Victor Caratini Catcher OPS: 0.704 (221 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.5% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0052 (Temp: 1.0306 | Wind: 0.9753)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 4.4 - MIN 4.7
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.4 - MIN 4.7
Win Probability: LAA 46.2% - MIN 53.8%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +116 / MIN -116
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 9.0: 43.1%
Under 9.0: 48.0%
LAA +1.5: 62.3%
MIN -1.5: 37.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.2 - MIN 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.2 - MIN 2.4
F5 Win Prob: LAA 47.1% - MIN 52.9% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +112 / MIN -112
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +113 +116 -0.7%
MIN ML -136 -116 -3.8%
LAA +1.5 -180 -166 -1.9%
MIN -1.5 +148 +166 -2.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -9.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -4.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | July 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: J.T. Ginn Home: Noah Schultz
ERA: 3.1 ERA: 6.0
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 7.84 K/9: 8.06
BB/9: 3.92 BB/9: 5.44
FIP: 4.11 FIP: 5.02
IP: 98.7 IP: 48.0
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 6.04
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.372
Pitcher Edge: ATH (J.T. Ginn)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH CWS Lg Avg
Record 41-54 49-45
R/Game 4.43 4.73 4.52
RA/Game 5.46 4.45 4.51
OPS 0.723 0.731 0.721
wOBA 0.311 0.313 0.311
ERA 5.18 4.15 4.21
FIP 4.78 4.06 4.07
WHIP 1.47 1.33 1.31
K/9 8.56 8.58 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.405 0.529 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.34 4.39 4.30
BP FIP 4.66 4.35 4.09
BP WHIP 1.54 1.35
BP K/9 9.39 8.48
BP Quality* 57.0 52.8 46.6
BP IP 337.3 270.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Erick Fedde (55 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Davis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0561 (Temp: 1.0105 | Wind: 1.0451)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 5.7 - CWS 5.3
Simulated Avg: ATH 5.7 - CWS 5.3
Win Probability: ATH 53.2% - CWS 46.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATH -114 / CWS +114
Avg Total Runs: 11.0
Over 8.5: 67.2%
Under 8.5: 32.9%
ATH +1.5: 66.8%
CWS -1.5: 33.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 3.4 - CWS 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 3.4 - CWS 2.5
F5 Win Prob: ATH 62.2% - CWS 37.8% (Tie: 13.6%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH -164 / CWS +164
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML +109 -114 +5.3%
CWS ML -132 +114 -10.1%
ATH +1.5 -192 -201 +1.0%
CWS -1.5 +157 +201 -5.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +14.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -19.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 14.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00929
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | July 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: JR Ritchie Home: Dustin May
ERA: 4.6 ERA: 4.55
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 8.4 K/9: 8.6
BB/9: 5.6 BB/9: 2.43
FIP: 5.12 FIP: 3.02
IP: 45.0 IP: 89.0
xERA: 4.8 xERA: 3.77
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.302
Pitcher Edge: STL (Dustin May)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL STL Lg Avg
Record 54-40 50-44
R/Game 4.85 4.53 4.52
RA/Game 3.88 4.46 4.51
OPS 0.722 0.710 0.721
wOBA 0.311 0.307 0.311
ERA 3.61 4.14 4.21
FIP 3.97 3.98 4.07
WHIP 1.23 1.33 1.31
K/9 8.59 7.60 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.600 0.508 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.32 4.15 4.30
BP FIP 3.59 3.94 4.09
BP WHIP 1.14 1.32
BP K/9 8.80 7.87
BP Quality* 43.7 49.9 46.6
BP IP 290.3 338.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Owen Murphy (47 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Danny Young (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0660 (Temp: 1.0231 | Wind: 1.0419)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.8 - STL 5.2
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.8 - STL 5.2
Win Probability: ATL 45.9% - STL 54.1%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +118 / STL -118
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 8.0: 59.6%
Under 8.0: 32.1%
ATL +1.5: 61.0%
STL -1.5: 39.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.5 - STL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.5 - STL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: ATL 40.2% - STL 59.8% (Tie: 14.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +148 / STL -148
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML +105 +118 -2.9%
STL ML -126 -118 -1.7%
ATL +1.5 -193 -156 -4.9%
STL -1.5 +158 +156 +0.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +7.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -20.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.6% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.2%
Fair ML: -148 | Kelly: 3.80%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00930
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | July 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cristian Javier Home: MacKenzie Gore
ERA: 10.22 ERA: 4.72
WHIP: 2.27 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 5.84 K/9: 9.89
BB/9: 8.76 BB/9: 3.56
FIP: 7.9 FIP: 3.51
IP: 12.3 IP: 101.0
xERA: 6.98 xERA: 3.96
xwOBA: 0.395 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: TEX (MacKenzie Gore)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU TEX Lg Avg
Record 47-50 48-47
R/Game 4.58 4.14 4.52
RA/Game 5.05 4.31 4.51
OPS 0.728 0.716 0.721
wOBA 0.311 0.311 0.311
ERA 4.79 4.12 4.21
FIP 4.69 3.94 4.07
WHIP 1.40 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.78 8.73 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.455 0.482 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.45 4.44 4.30
BP FIP 4.53 4.19 4.09
BP WHIP 1.35 1.28
BP K/9 8.87 7.80
BP Quality* 50.6 53.0 46.6
BP IP 358.3 265.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (43 pitches yesterday)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Chris Martin (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Winn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 16%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0159 (Temp: 1.0292 | Wind: 0.9871)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.9 - TEX 6.3
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.9 - TEX 6.3
Win Probability: HOU 38.6% - TEX 61.4%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +159 / TEX -159
Avg Total Runs: 11.2
Over 9.0: 60.5%
Under 9.0: 32.0%
HOU +1.5: 52.1%
TEX -1.5: 47.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.6 - TEX 4.0
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.5 - TEX 4.0
F5 Win Prob: HOU 31.6% - TEX 68.4% (Tie: 12.7%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +217 / TEX -217
F5 Avg Total: 6.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +113 +159 -8.3%
TEX ML -136 -159 +3.8%
HOU +1.5 -181 -109 -12.3%
TEX -1.5 +149 +109 +7.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +8.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -20.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.2%
Fair ML: -153 | Kelly: 4.28%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00931
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | July 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael Lorenzen Home: Trevor McDonald
ERA: 6.46 ERA: 5.46
WHIP: 1.78 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 7.04 K/9: 7.58
BB/9: 3.42 BB/9: 3.03
FIP: 4.65 FIP: 3.52
IP: 92.0 IP: 59.3
xERA: 5.44 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.356 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: SF (Trevor McDonald)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL SF Lg Avg
Record 39-58 40-55
R/Game 4.79 4.13 4.52
RA/Game 5.69 4.82 4.51
OPS 0.748 0.730 0.721
wOBA 0.322 0.310 0.311
ERA 5.46 4.50 4.21
FIP 4.63 4.16 4.07
WHIP 1.52 1.38 1.31
K/9 7.23 7.80 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.422 0.429 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.13 4.69 4.30
BP FIP 4.37 4.41 4.09
BP WHIP 1.53 1.47
BP K/9 7.59 7.80
BP Quality* 52.3 55.1 46.6
BP IP 351.0 316.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: JT Brubaker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9692 (Temp: 1.0021 | Wind: 0.9671)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.6 - SF 4.7
Simulated Avg: COL 4.6 - SF 4.7
Win Probability: COL 49.5% - SF 50.4%
Fair Moneyline: COL +102 / SF -102
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 9.0: 45.7%
Under 9.0: 45.6%
COL +1.5: 65.0%
SF -1.5: 35.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.4 - SF 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.4 - SF 2.7
F5 Win Prob: COL 45.2% - SF 54.8% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +121 / SF -121
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +119 +102 +3.9%
SF ML -144 -102 -8.6%
COL +1.5 -168 -186 +2.3%
SF -1.5 +139 +186 -6.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -6.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -6.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | July 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Mitch Bratt Home: Emmet Sheehan
ERA: 3.0 ERA: 4.91
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 10.05
BB/9: 6.0 BB/9: 2.92
FIP: 3.1 FIP: 4.37
IP: 3.0 IP: 77.0
xERA: 3.21 xERA: 3.93
xwOBA: 0.28 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Mitch Bratt)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI LAD Lg Avg
Record 48-47 61-35
R/Game 4.33 5.24 4.52
RA/Game 4.48 3.67 4.51
OPS 0.693 0.779 0.721
wOBA 0.299 0.333 0.311
ERA 4.22 3.56 4.21
FIP 4.29 3.70 4.07
WHIP 1.27 1.14 1.31
K/9 6.97 9.08 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.658 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.73 3.99 4.30
BP FIP 3.60 3.62 4.09
BP WHIP 1.16 1.28
BP K/9 7.84 9.86
BP Quality* 44.0 44.1 46.6
BP IP 291.7 317.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Landon Knack (60 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 22%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9974 (Temp: 1.0102 | Wind: 0.9873)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.1 - LAD 4.9
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.1 - LAD 4.9
Win Probability: ARI 42.2% - LAD 57.8%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +137 / LAD -137
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 9.5: 42.4%
Under 9.5: 57.6%
ARI +1.5: 58.6%
LAD -1.5: 41.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.4 - LAD 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.4 - LAD 2.7
F5 Win Prob: ARI 45.1% - LAD 54.9% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +122 / LAD -122
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML +188 +137 +7.5%
LAD ML -231 -137 -12.0%
ARI +1.5 -107 -142 +6.9%
LAD -1.5 -113 +142 -11.7%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -9.9%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +5.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | July 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kevin Gausman Home: Germán Márquez
ERA: 4.32 ERA: 5.02
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 9.14 K/9: 5.73
BB/9: 2.45 BB/9: 4.3
FIP: 3.72 FIP: 6.02
IP: 106.3 IP: 37.7
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 5.62
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.361
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Kevin Gausman)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR SD Lg Avg
Record 45-50 47-48
R/Game 4.08 3.94 4.52
RA/Game 4.44 4.40 4.51
OPS 0.690 0.675 0.721
wOBA 0.297 0.292 0.311
ERA 4.12 4.23 4.21
FIP 3.96 4.09 4.07
WHIP 1.31 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.98 8.26 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.462 0.449 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.68 3.73 4.30
BP FIP 3.39 3.64 4.09
BP WHIP 1.32 1.23
BP K/9 8.97 9.71
BP Quality* 47.0 48.8 46.6
BP IP 212.7 284.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Mason Fluharty (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Adam Macko (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Spencer Miles (39 pitches yesterday)
SD: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Waldron (46 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9935 (Temp: 1.0042 | Wind: 0.9894)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 4.7 - SD 3.7
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.7 - SD 3.7
Win Probability: TOR 59.7% - SD 40.3%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -148 / SD +148
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.5: 45.2%
Under 8.5: 54.8%
TOR -1.5: 43.0%
SD +1.5: 57.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.9 - SD 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.9 - SD 2.0
F5 Win Prob: TOR 64.5% - SD 35.5% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -182 / SD +182
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML -131 -148 +3.0%
SD ML +108 +148 -7.8%
TOR -1.5 +125 +133 -1.5%
SD +1.5 -150 -133 -3.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +2.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================