2026-07-16
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-16
Games: 1 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | July 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Christian Scott Home: Aaron Nola
ERA: 3.17 ERA: 5.75
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 10.83 K/9: 9.46
BB/9: 4.33 BB/9: 2.88
FIP: 3.82 FIP: 4.64
IP: 54.0 IP: 97.0
xERA: 4.51 xERA: 4.22
xwOBA: 0.328 xwOBA: 0.318
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Christian Scott)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM PHI Lg Avg
Record 40-57 54-43
R/Game 4.10 4.37 4.52
RA/Game 4.77 4.47 4.51
OPS 0.684 0.701 0.720
wOBA 0.295 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.27 4.23 4.21
FIP 3.88 3.61 4.07
WHIP 1.31 1.31 1.31
K/9 9.20 9.94 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.431 0.489 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.77 4.65 4.30
BP FIP 3.83 3.67 4.09
BP WHIP 1.26 1.41
BP K/9 9.39 10.39
BP Quality* 42.7 45.8 46.6
BP IP 243.3 298.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), wind out (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0562 (Temp: 1.0326 | Wind: 1.0229)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 4.7 - PHI 4.5
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.7 - PHI 4.5
Win Probability: NYM 52.0% - PHI 48.0%
Fair Moneyline: NYM -108 / PHI +108
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.5: 44.1%
Under 9.5: 55.9%
NYM +1.5: 67.6%
PHI -1.5: 32.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.8 - PHI 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.8 - PHI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: NYM 54.6% - PHI 45.4% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -120 / PHI +120
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +115 -108 +5.5%
PHI ML -139 +108 -10.2%
NYM +1.5 -166 -208 +5.2%
PHI -1.5 +137 +208 -9.8%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -8.3%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +3.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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