2026-07-17
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-17
Games: 15 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | July 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Griffin Jax Home: Jake Bennett
ERA: 3.47 ERA: 2.64
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 0.94
K/9: 9.13 K/9: 6.61
BB/9: 3.21 BB/9: 1.51
FIP: 4.37 FIP: 2.95
IP: 70.0 IP: 47.7
xERA: 5.3 xERA: 2.93
xwOBA: 0.352 xwOBA: 0.268
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Jake Bennett)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB BOS Lg Avg
Record 56-38 46-48
R/Game 4.52 4.10 4.51
RA/Game 4.18 3.81 4.51
OPS 0.735 0.701 0.720
wOBA 0.316 0.303 0.310
ERA 3.80 3.59 4.21
FIP 4.01 3.66 4.07
WHIP 1.17 1.22 1.31
K/9 8.17 8.67 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.536 0.533 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.20 3.68 4.30
BP FIP 4.25 3.81 4.09
BP WHIP 1.27 1.29
BP K/9 8.31 8.52
BP Quality* 46.2 42.6 46.6
BP IP 359.7 288.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Victor Mesa Jr., Jake Fraley, Richie Palacios
Victor Mesa Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.715 (89 AB)
Jake Fraley Outfielder OPS: 0.690 (82 AB)
Richie Palacios Second Base OPS: 0.671 (198 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.0% of full strength
BOS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Willson Contreras, Connor Wong, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Andruw Monasterio
Willson Contreras First Base OPS: 0.921 (312 AB)
Connor Wong Catcher OPS: 0.772 (111 AB)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa Second Base OPS: 0.705 (119 AB)
Andruw Monasterio Shortstop OPS: 0.694 (157 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9968 (Temp: 1.0125 | Wind: 0.9845)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 3.5 - BOS 4.1
Simulated Avg: TB 3.5 - BOS 4.1
Win Probability: TB 42.9% - BOS 57.1%
Fair Moneyline: TB +133 / BOS -133
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 9.0: 28.6%
Under 9.0: 62.6%
TB -1.5: 26.0%
BOS +1.5: 74.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 1.7 - BOS 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 1.7 - BOS 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TB 38.6% - BOS 61.4% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +159 / BOS -159
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML -102 +133 -7.6%
BOS ML -119 -133 +2.8%
TB -1.5 +158 +284 -12.7%
BOS +1.5 -193 -284 +8.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -23.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +10.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 9.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00932
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox (Game 2)
Regular Season | July 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB BOS Lg Avg
Record 56-38 46-48
R/Game 4.52 4.10 4.51
RA/Game 4.18 3.81 4.51
OPS 0.735 0.701 0.720
wOBA 0.316 0.303 0.310
ERA 3.80 3.59 4.21
FIP 4.01 3.66 4.07
WHIP 1.17 1.22 1.31
K/9 8.17 8.67 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.536 0.533 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.20 3.68 4.30
BP FIP 4.25 3.81 4.09
BP WHIP 1.27 1.29
BP K/9 8.31 8.52
BP Quality* 46.2 42.6 46.6
BP IP 359.7 288.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Victor Mesa Jr., Jake Fraley, Richie Palacios
Victor Mesa Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.715 (89 AB)
Jake Fraley Outfielder OPS: 0.690 (82 AB)
Richie Palacios Second Base OPS: 0.671 (198 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.0% of full strength
BOS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Willson Contreras, Connor Wong, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Andruw Monasterio
Willson Contreras First Base OPS: 0.921 (312 AB)
Connor Wong Catcher OPS: 0.772 (111 AB)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa Second Base OPS: 0.705 (119 AB)
Andruw Monasterio Shortstop OPS: 0.694 (157 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9968 (Temp: 1.0125 | Wind: 0.9845)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.3 - BOS 3.9
Simulated Avg: TB 4.3 - BOS 3.9
Win Probability: TB 53.8% - BOS 46.2%
Fair Moneyline: TB -116 / BOS +116
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 9.0: 35.0%
Under 9.0: 55.7%
TB -1.5: 36.7%
BOS +1.5: 63.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 2.5 - BOS 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.5 - BOS 2.2
F5 Win Prob: TB 55.6% - BOS 44.4% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -125 / BOS +125
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML -102 -116 +3.3%
BOS ML -119 +116 -8.1%
TB -1.5 +158 +172 -2.0%
BOS +1.5 -193 -172 -2.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -17.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +3.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | July 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Roki Sasaki Home: Gerrit Cole
ERA: 5.33 ERA: 4.04
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 8.89 K/9: 8.63
BB/9: 3.67 BB/9: 2.02
FIP: 5.4 FIP: 3.98
IP: 81.0 IP: 49.0
xERA: 4.64 xERA: 3.48
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Gerrit Cole)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD NYY Lg Avg
Record 61-36 54-42
R/Game 5.22 4.81 4.51
RA/Game 3.68 3.86 4.51
OPS 0.777 0.741 0.720
wOBA 0.332 0.317 0.310
ERA 3.55 3.39 4.21
FIP 3.70 3.63 4.07
WHIP 1.14 1.19 1.31
K/9 9.08 8.79 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.654 0.599 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.98 3.19 4.30
BP FIP 3.66 3.67 4.09
BP WHIP 1.28 1.20
BP K/9 9.80 8.41
BP Quality* 42.8 39.7 46.6
BP IP 321.3 343.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0176 (Temp: 1.0118 | Wind: 1.0057)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 4.6 - NYY 5.5
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.6 - NYY 5.5
Win Probability: LAD 42.0% - NYY 58.0%
Fair Moneyline: LAD +138 / NYY -138
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 9.0: 52.0%
Under 9.0: 39.5%
LAD -1.5: 28.3%
NYY +1.5: 71.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 2.6 - NYY 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.6 - NYY 3.4
F5 Win Prob: LAD 40.0% - NYY 60.0% (Tie: 13.8%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD +150 / NYY -150
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -111 +138 -10.6%
NYY ML -108 -138 +6.1%
LAD -1.5 +141 +253 -13.2%
NYY +1.5 -171 -253 +8.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -0.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -12.9%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] New York Yankees +1.5 (Run Line) [-171]
Model: 71.7% | Market: 63.1% | Edge: 8.6%
Fair ML: -253 | Kelly: 5.80%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00933
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | July 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jared Jones Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 4.37 ERA: 3.81
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 10.03 K/9: 10.64
BB/9: 2.83 BB/9: 2.94
FIP: 3.67 FIP: 3.66
IP: 35.0 IP: 113.3
xERA: 3.58 xERA: 4.39
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CLE Lg Avg
Record 50-47 51-46
R/Game 5.32 3.97 4.51
RA/Game 4.87 3.99 4.51
OPS 0.768 0.679 0.720
wOBA 0.332 0.295 0.310
ERA 4.32 3.71 4.21
FIP 3.84 3.86 4.07
WHIP 1.32 1.26 1.31
K/9 9.17 9.12 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.541 0.498 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.76 3.74 4.30
BP FIP 4.33 3.67 4.09
BP WHIP 1.46 1.32
BP K/9 9.29 10.03
BP Quality* 50.1 42.2 46.6
BP IP 272.3 320.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0334 (Temp: 1.0153 | Wind: 1.0178)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 4.8 - CLE 4.0
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.8 - CLE 4.0
Win Probability: PIT 58.7% - CLE 41.3%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -142 / CLE +142
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 7.5: 58.9%
Under 7.5: 41.1%
PIT +1.5: 73.8%
CLE -1.5: 26.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 2.8 - CLE 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.8 - CLE 2.0
F5 Win Prob: PIT 61.9% - CLE 38.1% (Tie: 16.3%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -163 / CLE +163
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML +109 -142 +10.9%
CLE ML -131 +142 -15.4%
PIT +1.5 -199 -282 +7.3%
CLE -1.5 +163 +282 -11.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +6.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -11.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +109 | Edge: 10.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00934
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | July 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cal Quantrill Home: Chris Sale
ERA: 3.11 ERA: 2.2
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 5.44 K/9: 10.74
BB/9: 2.53 BB/9: 2.3
FIP: 4.42 FIP: 2.54
IP: 46.3 IP: 98.0
xERA: 4.58 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Chris Sale)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX ATL Lg Avg
Record 49-47 55-40
R/Game 4.16 4.84 4.51
RA/Game 4.31 3.87 4.51
OPS 0.719 0.722 0.720
wOBA 0.312 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.13 3.60 4.21
FIP 3.96 3.96 4.07
WHIP 1.25 1.23 1.31
K/9 8.72 8.60 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.483 0.601 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.52 3.33 4.30
BP FIP 4.26 3.57 4.09
BP WHIP 1.29 1.14
BP K/9 7.76 8.88
BP Quality* 47.7 39.1 46.6
BP IP 269.0 295.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 29%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0203 (Temp: 1.0220 | Wind: 0.9983)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 3.1 - ATL 5.2
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.1 - ATL 5.1
Win Probability: TEX 29.2% - ATL 70.8%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +242 / ATL -242
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.0: 44.5%
Under 8.0: 46.1%
TEX +1.5: 45.8%
ATL -1.5: 54.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 1.6 - ATL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.6 - ATL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: TEX 28.9% - ATL 71.1% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +246 / ATL -246
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML +168 +242 -8.1%
ATL ML -205 -242 +3.5%
TEX +1.5 -127 +118 -10.1%
ATL -1.5 +106 -118 +5.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -7.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -6.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | July 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Anthony Kay Home: Spencer Miles
ERA: 4.23 ERA: 2.85
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 7.15 K/9: 8.55
BB/9: 3.53 BB/9: 2.85
FIP: 4.43 FIP: 3.02
IP: 89.3 IP: 60.0
xERA: 5.2 xERA: 3.28
xwOBA: 0.349 xwOBA: 0.283
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Spencer Miles)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS TOR Lg Avg
Record 50-45 45-51
R/Game 4.78 4.08 4.51
RA/Game 4.41 4.45 4.51
OPS 0.732 0.690 0.720
wOBA 0.314 0.298 0.310
ERA 4.12 4.13 4.21
FIP 4.04 3.94 4.07
WHIP 1.32 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.57 8.99 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.537 0.461 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.33 3.73 4.30
BP FIP 4.30 3.38 4.09
BP WHIP 1.34 1.32
BP K/9 8.49 8.93
BP Quality* 47.8 41.1 46.6
BP IP 274.7 214.7
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0098 (Temp: 1.0021 | Wind: 1.0076)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 3.7 - TOR 4.5
Simulated Avg: CWS 3.8 - TOR 4.5
Win Probability: CWS 42.0% - TOR 58.0%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +138 / TOR -138
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.5: 44.9%
Under 8.5: 55.1%
CWS +1.5: 59.3%
TOR -1.5: 40.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 1.9 - TOR 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 1.9 - TOR 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CWS 39.1% - TOR 60.9% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +155 / TOR -155
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +113 +138 -4.9%
TOR ML -136 -138 +0.3%
CWS +1.5 -187 -146 -5.9%
TOR -1.5 +153 +146 +1.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +2.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | July 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sandy Alcantara Home: Logan Henderson
ERA: 3.99 ERA: 3.18
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 6.89 K/9: 10.8
BB/9: 2.27 BB/9: 2.22
FIP: 3.62 FIP: 2.36
IP: 130.7 IP: 28.3
xERA: 3.74 xERA: 3.02
xwOBA: 0.301 xwOBA: 0.272
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Logan Henderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA MIL Lg Avg
Record 52-45 59-37
R/Game 4.53 5.09 4.51
RA/Game 4.28 3.78 4.51
OPS 0.741 0.735 0.720
wOBA 0.319 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.02 3.48 4.21
FIP 3.78 3.46 4.07
WHIP 1.24 1.17 1.31
K/9 8.59 9.73 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.526 0.633 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.24 3.52 4.30
BP FIP 3.58 3.65 4.09
BP WHIP 1.23 1.28
BP K/9 9.40 9.03
BP Quality* 43.0 41.4 46.6
BP IP 282.3 312.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0201 (Temp: 1.0329 | Wind: 0.9876)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 3.7 - MIL 4.8
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.7 - MIL 4.8
Win Probability: MIA 39.5% - MIL 60.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +153 / MIL -153
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.0: 46.6%
Under 8.0: 43.7%
MIA +1.5: 56.4%
MIL -1.5: 43.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.0 - MIL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.0 - MIL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: MIA 40.2% - MIL 59.8% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +149 / MIL -149
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +128 +153 -4.4%
MIL ML -155 -153 -0.2%
MIA +1.5 -168 -129 -6.3%
MIL -1.5 +139 +129 +1.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | July 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bailey Ober Home: Colin Rea
ERA: 4.4 ERA: 4.75
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 6.4 K/9: 6.65
BB/9: 2.39 BB/9: 3.42
FIP: 4.83 FIP: 4.68
IP: 71.7 IP: 94.7
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 5.7
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.363
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN CHC Lg Avg
Record 48-49 54-42
R/Game 4.86 5.04 4.51
RA/Game 5.00 4.50 4.51
OPS 0.738 0.747 0.720
wOBA 0.319 0.324 0.310
ERA 4.62 4.33 4.21
FIP 4.19 4.64 4.07
WHIP 1.37 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.45 7.89 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.487 0.552 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.94 4.58 4.30
BP FIP 4.31 4.81 4.09
BP WHIP 1.49 1.39
BP K/9 8.14 7.97
BP Quality* 51.0 51.1 46.6
BP IP 393.7 371.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0116 (Temp: 1.0279 | Wind: 0.9841)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 5.8 - CHC 5.9
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.8 - CHC 5.9
Win Probability: MIN 49.3% - CHC 50.7%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +103 / CHC -103
Avg Total Runs: 11.7
Over 11.0: 48.4%
Under 11.0: 44.0%
MIN +1.5: 62.7%
CHC -1.5: 37.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 3.4 - CHC 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 3.4 - CHC 3.2
F5 Win Prob: MIN 51.9% - CHC 48.1% (Tie: 13.3%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -108 / CHC +108
F5 Avg Total: 6.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +120 +103 +3.8%
CHC ML -145 -103 -8.5%
MIN +1.5 -162 -168 +0.9%
CHC -1.5 +134 +168 -5.4%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -4.0%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -8.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | July 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Dean Kremer Home: Peter Lambert
ERA: 4.09 ERA: 3.14
WHIP: 1.0 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 9.82 K/9: 8.48
BB/9: 1.64 BB/9: 3.45
FIP: 6.78 FIP: 4.03
IP: 22.0 IP: 86.0
xERA: 4.48 xERA: 3.38
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.287
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Peter Lambert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL HOU Lg Avg
Record 46-51 47-51
R/Game 4.61 4.58 4.51
RA/Game 4.80 5.06 4.51
OPS 0.722 0.728 0.720
wOBA 0.312 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.30 4.81 4.21
FIP 4.11 4.69 4.07
WHIP 1.35 1.41 1.31
K/9 8.01 8.78 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.481 0.455 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.13 4.46 4.30
BP FIP 3.89 4.54 4.09
BP WHIP 1.27 1.36
BP K/9 8.61 8.84
BP Quality* 44.3 49.2 46.6
BP IP 333.3 363.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0045 (Temp: 1.0139 | Wind: 0.9907)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 4.2 - HOU 4.6
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.2 - HOU 4.6
Win Probability: BAL 46.5% - HOU 53.5%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +115 / HOU -115
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 50.4%
Under 8.5: 49.6%
BAL -1.5: 30.8%
HOU +1.5: 69.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 2.2 - HOU 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.2 - HOU 2.6
F5 Win Prob: BAL 42.7% - HOU 57.3% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +134 / HOU -134
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML -103 +115 -4.2%
HOU ML -117 -115 -0.4%
BAL -1.5 +158 +224 -7.9%
HOU +1.5 -193 -224 +3.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | July 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael King Home: Seth Lugo
ERA: 3.41 ERA: 4.56
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 7.64 K/9: 7.39
BB/9: 3.57 BB/9: 2.92
FIP: 3.79 FIP: 4.29
IP: 108.3 IP: 104.7
xERA: 4.55 xERA: 5.48
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.357
Pitcher Edge: SD (Michael King)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD KC Lg Avg
Record 48-48 38-59
R/Game 3.95 4.24 4.51
RA/Game 4.40 5.14 4.51
OPS 0.672 0.712 0.720
wOBA 0.291 0.307 0.310
ERA 4.23 4.95 4.21
FIP 4.10 4.63 4.07
WHIP 1.34 1.45 1.31
K/9 8.25 7.84 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.451 0.412 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.70 5.62 4.30
BP FIP 3.62 5.16 4.09
BP WHIP 1.22 1.60
BP K/9 9.63 7.72
BP Quality* 41.1 58.1 46.6
BP IP 289.7 355.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9919 (Temp: 1.0198 | Wind: 0.9727)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 4.5 - KC 3.9
Simulated Avg: SD 4.5 - KC 3.9
Win Probability: SD 55.9% - KC 44.1%
Fair Moneyline: SD -127 / KC +127
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 10.5: 28.7%
Under 10.5: 71.3%
SD -1.5: 39.1%
KC +1.5: 60.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.4 - KC 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.4 - KC 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SD 53.9% - KC 46.1% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SD -117 / KC +117
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML -120 -127 +1.3%
KC ML +100 +127 -5.9%
SD -1.5 +135 +156 -3.5%
KC +1.5 -163 -156 -1.0%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -23.7%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +18.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 10.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 18.9%
[HELD FOR REVIEW] high-edge total -> output/TOTALS_REVIEW_QUEUE.json
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | July 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brady Singer Home: Gabriel Hughes
ERA: 4.72 ERA: 3.0
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 1.0
K/9: 7.63 K/9: 8.0
BB/9: 3.11 BB/9: 3.0
FIP: 5.34 FIP: 2.32
IP: 89.7 IP: 9.0
xERA: 5.51 xERA: 2.67
xwOBA: 0.358 xwOBA: 0.256
Pitcher Edge: COL (Gabriel Hughes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN COL Lg Avg
Record 43-52 39-59
R/Game 4.16 4.76 4.51
RA/Game 4.79 5.66 4.51
OPS 0.703 0.745 0.720
wOBA 0.304 0.321 0.310
ERA 4.52 5.44 4.21
FIP 4.74 4.62 4.07
WHIP 1.44 1.52 1.31
K/9 8.17 7.21 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.436 0.421 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.87 5.15 4.30
BP FIP 4.92 4.36 4.09
BP WHIP 1.48 1.53
BP K/9 8.61 7.60
BP Quality* 53.6 52.3 46.6
BP IP 366.0 353.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9992 (Temp: 1.0249 | Wind: 0.9749)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 5.4 - COL 6.7
Simulated Avg: CIN 5.4 - COL 6.7
Win Probability: CIN 39.4% - COL 60.6%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +154 / COL -154
Avg Total Runs: 12.1
Over 12.0: 44.0%
Under 12.0: 48.8%
CIN -1.5: 27.6%
COL +1.5: 72.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 3.1 - COL 3.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 3.1 - COL 3.8
F5 Win Prob: CIN 40.9% - COL 59.1% (Tie: 12.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +144 / COL -144
F5 Avg Total: 6.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML -104 +154 -11.6%
COL ML -115 -154 +7.1%
CIN -1.5 +141 +262 -13.9%
COL +1.5 -171 -262 +9.3%
O 12.0 -110 N/A -8.4%
U 12.0 -110 N/A -3.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line) [-171]
Model: 72.4% | Market: 63.1% | Edge: 9.3%
Fair ML: -262 | Kelly: 6.28%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00935
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | July 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Troy Melton Home: Reid Detmers
ERA: 1.82 ERA: 4.39
WHIP: 0.81 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 7.48 K/9: 10.19
BB/9: 2.01 BB/9: 2.9
FIP: 3.95 FIP: 3.24
IP: 49.3 IP: 108.7
xERA: 2.96 xERA: 3.38
xwOBA: 0.269 xwOBA: 0.287
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Reid Detmers)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET LAA Lg Avg
Record 44-52 38-59
R/Game 4.24 4.43 4.51
RA/Game 3.99 5.00 4.51
OPS 0.712 0.707 0.720
wOBA 0.308 0.306 0.310
ERA 3.65 4.65 4.21
FIP 3.68 4.19 4.07
WHIP 1.21 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.45 8.97 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.528 0.445 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.01 4.53 4.30
BP FIP 4.02 4.19 4.09
BP WHIP 1.34 1.41
BP K/9 8.54 9.75
BP Quality* 45.2 48.2 46.6
BP IP 341.3 327.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9814 (Temp: 1.0047 | Wind: 0.9769)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 3.8 - LAA 3.7
Simulated Avg: DET 3.8 - LAA 3.7
Win Probability: DET 51.2% - LAA 48.8%
Fair Moneyline: DET -105 / LAA +105
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 8.5: 37.4%
Under 8.5: 62.6%
DET -1.5: 33.4%
LAA +1.5: 66.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 2.0 - LAA 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.0 - LAA 1.8
F5 Win Prob: DET 53.3% - LAA 46.7% (Tie: 19.6%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -114 / LAA +114
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -115 -105 -2.3%
LAA ML -104 +105 -2.2%
DET -1.5 +144 +199 -7.6%
LAA +1.5 -175 -199 +2.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -15.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +10.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00936
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Athletics
Regular Season | July 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cade Cavalli Home: Gage Jump
ERA: 3.83 ERA: 3.51
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 10.03 K/9: 8.88
BB/9: 2.92 BB/9: 2.77
FIP: 2.9 FIP: 3.12
IP: 98.7 IP: 48.7
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 3.96
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH ATH Lg Avg
Record 48-49 41-55
R/Game 5.32 4.40 4.51
RA/Game 5.25 5.50 4.51
OPS 0.759 0.721 0.720
wOBA 0.324 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.75 5.20 4.21
FIP 4.55 4.79 4.07
WHIP 1.40 1.47 1.31
K/9 7.95 8.58 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.399 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.08 5.28 4.30
BP FIP 5.20 4.63 4.09
BP WHIP 1.61 1.53
BP K/9 8.53 9.34
BP Quality* 59.7 53.6 46.6
BP IP 327.0 341.0
Bullpen Edge: ATH (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9690 (Temp: 0.9875 | Wind: 0.9812)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 5.0 - ATH 4.6
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.0 - ATH 4.6
Win Probability: WSH 54.0% - ATH 46.0%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -117 / ATH +117
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 10.0: 39.6%
Under 10.0: 51.9%
WSH -1.5: 38.9%
ATH +1.5: 61.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 2.4 - ATH 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.4 - ATH 2.1
F5 Win Prob: WSH 56.1% - ATH 43.9% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -128 / ATH +128
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML -110 -117 +1.6%
ATH ML -110 +117 -6.4%
WSH -1.5 +144 +157 -2.1%
ATH +1.5 -175 -157 -2.5%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -12.8%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -0.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | July 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Merrill Kelly
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL ARI Lg Avg
Record 50-45 49-47
R/Game 4.52 4.33 4.51
RA/Game 4.45 4.47 4.51
OPS 0.708 0.691 0.720
wOBA 0.306 0.298 0.310
ERA 4.13 4.21 4.21
FIP 3.98 4.30 4.07
WHIP 1.33 1.27 1.31
K/9 7.58 6.96 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.486 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.12 3.71 4.30
BP FIP 3.93 3.64 4.09
BP WHIP 1.33 1.15
BP K/9 7.81 7.78
BP Quality* 45.4 41.0 46.6
BP IP 343.3 300.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 96°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (96°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0317 (Temp: 1.0358 | Wind: 0.9960)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 5.7 - ARI 4.6
Simulated Avg: STL 5.7 - ARI 4.6
Win Probability: STL 60.1% - ARI 39.9%
Fair Moneyline: STL -150 / ARI +150
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.0: 53.8%
Under 9.0: 37.8%
STL -1.5: 45.8%
ARI +1.5: 54.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 3.9 - ARI 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 3.9 - ARI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: STL 67.5% - ARI 32.5% (Tie: 12.8%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -207 / ARI +207
F5 Avg Total: 6.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML -112 -150 +7.2%
ARI ML -107 +150 -11.8%
STL -1.5 +148 +119 +5.4%
ARI +1.5 -180 -119 -10.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +1.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -14.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | July 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Landen Roupp Home: Bryce Miller
ERA: 4.27 ERA: 2.18
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 0.83
K/9: 9.65 K/9: 10.14
BB/9: 3.9 BB/9: 1.4
FIP: 3.19 FIP: 3.12
IP: 97.0 IP: 57.7
xERA: 3.36 xERA: 2.27
xwOBA: 0.286 xwOBA: 0.236
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF SEA Lg Avg
Record 41-55 48-49
R/Game 4.11 4.04 4.51
RA/Game 4.78 3.88 4.51
OPS 0.730 0.690 0.720
wOBA 0.310 0.301 0.310
ERA 4.46 3.61 4.21
FIP 4.15 3.39 4.07
WHIP 1.37 1.18 1.31
K/9 7.78 8.66 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.432 0.519 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.66 3.42 4.30
BP FIP 4.39 3.51 4.09
BP WHIP 1.47 1.30
BP K/9 7.80 8.45
BP Quality* 50.4 40.6 46.6
BP IP 318.3 270.7
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9875 (Temp: 0.9933 | Wind: 0.9942)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 2.7 - SEA 3.6
Simulated Avg: SF 2.7 - SEA 3.6
Win Probability: SF 38.9% - SEA 61.1%
Fair Moneyline: SF +157 / SEA -157
Avg Total Runs: 6.3
Over 7.0: 33.9%
Under 7.0: 55.5%
SF +1.5: 59.7%
SEA -1.5: 40.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 1.3 - SEA 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.3 - SEA 1.8
F5 Win Prob: SF 38.6% - SEA 61.4% (Tie: 22.6%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +159 / SEA -159
F5 Avg Total: 3.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +138 +157 -3.2%
SEA ML -167 -157 -1.4%
SF +1.5 -167 -148 -2.9%
SEA -1.5 +138 +148 -1.7%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -18.5%
U 7.0 -110 N/A +3.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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