2026-07-18
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-18
Games: 16 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | July 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jared Jones Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 4.37 ERA: 3.81
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 10.03 K/9: 10.64
BB/9: 2.83 BB/9: 2.94
FIP: 3.67 FIP: 3.66
IP: 35.0 IP: 113.3
xERA: 3.58 xERA: 4.39
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CLE Lg Avg
Record 50-47 51-46
R/Game 5.32 3.97 4.52
RA/Game 4.87 3.99 4.52
OPS 0.768 0.679 0.720
wOBA 0.332 0.295 0.311
ERA 4.32 3.71 4.21
FIP 3.84 3.86 4.07
WHIP 1.32 1.26 1.31
K/9 9.17 9.12 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.541 0.498 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.76 3.74 4.30
BP FIP 4.33 3.67 4.09
BP WHIP 1.46 1.32
BP K/9 9.29 10.03
BP Quality* 50.1 42.2 46.6
BP IP 272.3 320.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Austin Hedges, José Ramírez, Angel Martínez, David Fry
Austin Hedges Catcher OPS: 0.762 (128 AB)
José Ramírez Third Base OPS: 0.757 (268 AB)
Angel Martínez Outfielder OPS: 0.718 (226 AB)
David Fry Unknown OPS: 0.690 (128 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 49%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0377 (Temp: 1.0125 | Wind: 1.0250)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 4.9 - CLE 3.7
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.9 - CLE 3.7
Win Probability: PIT 61.8% - CLE 38.2%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -162 / CLE +162
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.0: 47.3%
Under 8.0: 43.1%
PIT -1.5: 45.4%
CLE +1.5: 54.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 2.8 - CLE 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.8 - CLE 1.9
F5 Win Prob: PIT 65.0% - CLE 35.0% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -186 / CLE +186
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML -114 -162 +8.5%
CLE ML -106 +162 -13.3%
PIT -1.5 +148 +120 +5.1%
CLE +1.5 -180 -120 -9.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -9.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians (Game 2)
Regular Season | July 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Logan Allen
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CLE Lg Avg
Record 50-47 51-46
R/Game 5.32 3.97 4.52
RA/Game 4.87 3.99 4.52
OPS 0.768 0.679 0.720
wOBA 0.332 0.295 0.311
ERA 4.32 3.71 4.21
FIP 3.84 3.86 4.07
WHIP 1.32 1.26 1.31
K/9 9.17 9.12 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.541 0.498 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.76 3.74 4.30
BP FIP 4.33 3.67 4.09
BP WHIP 1.46 1.32
BP K/9 9.29 10.03
BP Quality* 50.1 42.2 46.6
BP IP 272.3 320.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Austin Hedges, José Ramírez, Angel Martínez, David Fry
Austin Hedges Catcher OPS: 0.762 (128 AB)
José Ramírez Third Base OPS: 0.757 (268 AB)
Angel Martínez Outfielder OPS: 0.718 (226 AB)
David Fry Unknown OPS: 0.690 (128 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 49%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0377 (Temp: 1.0125 | Wind: 1.0250)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 4.1 - CLE 3.9
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.1 - CLE 3.9
Win Probability: PIT 52.6% - CLE 47.4%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -111 / CLE +111
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.0: 42.2%
Under 8.0: 48.0%
PIT -1.5: 35.6%
CLE +1.5: 64.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 2.1 - CLE 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.1 - CLE 2.1
F5 Win Prob: PIT 50.4% - CLE 49.6% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -102 / CLE +102
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML -114 -111 -0.7%
CLE ML -106 +111 -4.0%
PIT -1.5 +148 +181 -4.7%
CLE +1.5 -180 -181 +0.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -10.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -4.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | July 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Taj Bradley Home: Matthew Boyd
ERA: 3.59 ERA: 4.5
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 10.34 K/9: 9.2
BB/9: 3.51 BB/9: 2.54
FIP: 3.87 FIP: 3.32
IP: 102.7 IP: 46.0
xERA: 3.82 xERA: 4.9
xwOBA: 0.304 xwOBA: 0.34
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Matthew Boyd)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN CHC Lg Avg
Record 49-49 54-43
R/Game 4.86 5.01 4.52
RA/Game 4.97 4.51 4.52
OPS 0.736 0.745 0.720
wOBA 0.318 0.323 0.311
ERA 4.60 4.33 4.21
FIP 4.17 4.63 4.07
WHIP 1.37 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.46 7.91 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.490 0.548 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.94 4.58 4.30
BP FIP 4.31 4.81 4.09
BP WHIP 1.49 1.39
BP K/9 8.14 7.97
BP Quality* 51.0 51.1 46.6
BP IP 393.7 371.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Byron Buxton, Alex Jackson
Byron Buxton Outfielder OPS: 0.903 (306 AB)
Alex Jackson Catcher OPS: 0.728 (54 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.9% of full strength
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0674 (Temp: 1.0261 | Wind: 1.0403)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 5.1 - CHC 5.5
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.1 - CHC 5.5
Win Probability: MIN 46.2% - CHC 53.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +116 / CHC -116
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 8.5: 64.3%
Under 8.5: 35.7%
MIN +1.5: 60.3%
CHC -1.5: 39.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 2.8 - CHC 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.7 - CHC 2.8
F5 Win Prob: MIN 49.1% - CHC 50.9% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +104 / CHC -104
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML +119 +116 +0.5%
CHC ML -143 -116 -5.0%
MIN +1.5 -172 -152 -2.9%
CHC -1.5 +142 +152 -1.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +11.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -16.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00937
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | July 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Davis Martin Home: Shane Bieber
ERA: 3.41 ERA: 7.64
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 2.04
K/9: 8.25 K/9: 6.62
BB/9: 2.78 BB/9: 5.09
FIP: 2.97 FIP: 8.47
IP: 100.3 IP: 17.7
xERA: 4.36 xERA: 11.53
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.477
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Davis Martin)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS TOR Lg Avg
Record 51-45 45-52
R/Game 4.85 4.08 4.52
RA/Game 4.41 4.53 4.52
OPS 0.734 0.691 0.720
wOBA 0.314 0.298 0.311
ERA 4.11 4.19 4.21
FIP 4.07 3.94 4.07
WHIP 1.32 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.58 8.98 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.544 0.453 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.33 3.73 4.30
BP FIP 4.30 3.38 4.09
BP WHIP 1.34 1.32
BP K/9 8.49 8.93
BP Quality* 50.8 44.1 46.6
BP IP 274.7 214.7
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tyler Schweitzer (54 pitches yesterday)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Patrick Corbin (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: CJ Van Eyk (37 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 46%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), crosswind (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0111 (Temp: 1.0131 | Wind: 0.9980)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 5.6 - TOR 4.0
Simulated Avg: CWS 5.6 - TOR 4.0
Win Probability: CWS 64.8% - TOR 35.2%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -184 / TOR +184
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.5: 56.4%
Under 8.5: 43.6%
CWS -1.5: 49.6%
TOR +1.5: 50.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 3.6 - TOR 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 3.6 - TOR 2.0
F5 Win Prob: CWS 72.9% - TOR 27.1% (Tie: 13.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -269 / TOR +269
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML -111 -184 +12.2%
TOR ML -109 +184 -16.9%
CWS -1.5 +149 +102 +9.4%
TOR +1.5 -181 -102 -14.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +4.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Chicago White Sox (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -111 | Edge: 12.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00938
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | July 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Rhett Lowder Home: Tomoyuki Sugano
ERA: 4.91 ERA: 4.8
WHIP: 1.54 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 7.62 K/9: 5.12
BB/9: 4.52 BB/9: 2.45
FIP: 4.59 FIP: 5.25
IP: 69.7 IP: 84.3
xERA: 5.48 xERA: 7.07
xwOBA: 0.357 xwOBA: 0.397
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Rhett Lowder)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN COL Lg Avg
Record 44-52 39-60
R/Game 4.19 4.73 4.52
RA/Game 4.76 5.68 4.52
OPS 0.707 0.743 0.720
wOBA 0.306 0.320 0.311
ERA 4.49 5.45 4.21
FIP 4.72 4.66 4.07
WHIP 1.43 1.52 1.31
K/9 8.17 7.23 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.442 0.417 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.87 5.15 4.30
BP FIP 4.92 4.36 4.09
BP WHIP 1.48 1.53
BP K/9 8.61 7.60
BP Quality* 53.6 53.8 46.6
BP IP 366.0 353.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jeff Criswell (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 93°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (93°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0504 (Temp: 1.0313 | Wind: 1.0185)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 6.4 - COL 6.8
Simulated Avg: CIN 6.3 - COL 6.8
Win Probability: CIN 46.4% - COL 53.6%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +115 / COL -115
Avg Total Runs: 13.1
Over 12.5: 51.2%
Under 12.5: 48.8%
CIN -1.5: 34.7%
COL +1.5: 65.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 3.8 - COL 3.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 3.8 - COL 3.8
F5 Win Prob: CIN 50.3% - COL 49.7% (Tie: 12.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN -101 / COL +101
F5 Avg Total: 7.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML -113 +115 -6.6%
COL ML -106 -115 +2.1%
CIN -1.5 +130 +189 -8.8%
COL +1.5 -157 -189 +4.3%
O 12.5 -110 N/A -1.2%
U 12.5 -110 N/A -3.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | July 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sean Manaea Home: Jesús Luzardo
ERA: 4.56 ERA: 3.51
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 8.88 K/9: 11.09
BB/9: 2.88 BB/9: 2.85
FIP: 3.82 FIP: 2.65
IP: 75.0 IP: 110.3
xERA: 4.22 xERA: 2.96
xwOBA: 0.318 xwOBA: 0.269
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM PHI Lg Avg
Record 41-57 54-44
R/Game 4.10 4.34 4.52
RA/Game 4.73 4.47 4.52
OPS 0.685 0.699 0.720
wOBA 0.296 0.301 0.311
ERA 4.24 4.23 4.21
FIP 3.87 3.65 4.07
WHIP 1.30 1.32 1.31
K/9 9.20 9.92 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.435 0.486 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.77 4.63 4.30
BP FIP 3.87 3.67 4.09
BP WHIP 1.26 1.41
BP K/9 9.38 10.35
BP Quality* 42.9 45.7 46.6
BP IP 245.7 301.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 53%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0008 (Temp: 1.0186 | Wind: 0.9825)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 3.4 - PHI 4.4
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.4 - PHI 4.4
Win Probability: NYM 39.4% - PHI 60.6%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +154 / PHI -154
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.5: 39.8%
Under 8.5: 60.2%
NYM +1.5: 57.4%
PHI -1.5: 42.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 1.6 - PHI 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 1.6 - PHI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: NYM 34.3% - PHI 65.7% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +192 / PHI -192
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +153 +154 -0.1%
PHI ML -186 -154 -4.5%
NYM +1.5 -134 -135 +0.2%
PHI -1.5 +111 +135 -4.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -12.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +7.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.2% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.8%
Fair ML: -151 | Kelly: 4.09%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00939
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | July 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trevor Rogers Home: Spencer Arrighetti
ERA: 4.48 ERA: 4.5
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 6.87 K/9: 8.89
BB/9: 3.09 BB/9: 4.83
FIP: 4.04 FIP: 4.64
IP: 90.3 IP: 82.0
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 5.2
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.349
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Trevor Rogers)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL HOU Lg Avg
Record 47-51 47-52
R/Game 4.59 4.56 4.52
RA/Game 4.78 5.04 4.52
OPS 0.720 0.728 0.720
wOBA 0.312 0.311 0.311
ERA 4.27 4.79 4.21
FIP 4.11 4.67 4.07
WHIP 1.36 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.01 8.82 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.482 0.454 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.13 4.46 4.30
BP FIP 3.89 4.54 4.09
BP WHIP 1.27 1.36
BP K/9 8.61 8.84
BP Quality* 45.8 49.2 46.6
BP IP 333.3 363.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (36 pitches yesterday)
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 96°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (96°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0137 (Temp: 1.0353 | Wind: 0.9792)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 5.0 - HOU 4.7
Simulated Avg: BAL 5.0 - HOU 4.7
Win Probability: BAL 52.9% - HOU 47.1%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -112 / HOU +112
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 9.0: 49.0%
Under 9.0: 42.1%
BAL -1.5: 38.0%
HOU +1.5: 62.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.9 - HOU 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.9 - HOU 2.6
F5 Win Prob: BAL 55.0% - HOU 45.0% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -122 / HOU +122
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML -110 -112 +0.5%
HOU ML -109 +112 -5.0%
BAL -1.5 +153 +163 -1.6%
HOU +1.5 -186 -163 -3.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -3.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -10.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | July 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Griffin Canning Home: Randy Dobnak
ERA: 6.47 ERA: 1.86
WHIP: 1.6 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 8.89 K/9: 3.72
BB/9: 4.85 BB/9: 3.72
FIP: 4.61 FIP: 4.85
IP: 55.7 IP: 9.7
xERA: 4.67 xERA: 4.9
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.34
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD KC Lg Avg
Record 48-49 39-59
R/Game 3.97 4.27 4.52
RA/Game 4.42 5.15 4.52
OPS 0.673 0.714 0.720
wOBA 0.291 0.308 0.311
ERA 4.24 4.92 4.21
FIP 4.10 4.62 4.07
WHIP 1.34 1.45 1.31
K/9 8.26 7.79 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.451 0.414 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.70 5.62 4.30
BP FIP 3.62 5.16 4.09
BP WHIP 1.22 1.60
BP K/9 9.63 7.72
BP Quality* 41.1 58.1 46.6
BP IP 289.7 355.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 93°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Hot (93°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0118 (Temp: 1.0316 | Wind: 0.9807)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 4.3 - KC 4.7
Simulated Avg: SD 4.3 - KC 4.7
Win Probability: SD 46.6% - KC 53.4%
Fair Moneyline: SD +114 / KC -114
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 11.0: 27.2%
Under 11.0: 65.3%
SD -1.5: 31.4%
KC +1.5: 68.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.2 - KC 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.2 - KC 2.9
F5 Win Prob: SD 39.7% - KC 60.3% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +152 / KC -152
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML -111 +114 -6.0%
KC ML -108 -114 +1.4%
SD -1.5 +138 +218 -10.6%
KC +1.5 -167 -218 +6.0%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -25.2%
U 11.0 -110 N/A +12.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 11.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00940
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | July 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Dustin May Home: Brandon Pfaadt
ERA: 4.55 ERA: 4.7
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 8.61 K/9: 6.88
BB/9: 2.71 BB/9: 3.02
FIP: 3.07 FIP: 4.52
IP: 93.0 IP: 53.7
xERA: 3.74 xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: 0.301 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: STL (Dustin May)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL ARI Lg Avg
Record 51-45 49-48
R/Game 4.52 4.33 4.52
RA/Game 4.45 4.47 4.52
OPS 0.708 0.693 0.720
wOBA 0.306 0.298 0.311
ERA 4.11 4.20 4.21
FIP 3.99 4.31 4.07
WHIP 1.33 1.27 1.31
K/9 7.59 6.94 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.485 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.12 3.71 4.30
BP FIP 3.93 3.64 4.09
BP WHIP 1.33 1.15
BP K/9 7.81 7.78
BP Quality* 45.4 41.0 46.6
BP IP 343.3 300.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 100°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Hot (100°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0251 (Temp: 1.0420 | Wind: 0.9838)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.6 - ARI 4.2
Simulated Avg: STL 4.6 - ARI 4.2
Win Probability: STL 53.6% - ARI 46.4%
Fair Moneyline: STL -116 / ARI +116
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 9.0: 40.1%
Under 9.0: 50.8%
STL -1.5: 37.7%
ARI +1.5: 62.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.8 - ARI 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.8 - ARI 2.2
F5 Win Prob: STL 59.6% - ARI 40.4% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -148 / ARI +148
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +100 -116 +3.6%
ARI ML -120 +116 -8.1%
STL -1.5 +164 +165 -0.2%
ARI +1.5 -200 -165 -4.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -12.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -1.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | July 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ian Seymour Home: Patrick Sandoval
ERA: 4.59 ERA: 2.08
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 10.44 K/9: 10.38
BB/9: 3.34 BB/9: 2.08
FIP: 3.9 FIP: 1.47
IP: 64.7 IP: 4.3
xERA: 3.48 xERA: 3.56
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.294
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Patrick Sandoval)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB BOS Lg Avg
Record 56-40 48-48
R/Game 4.46 4.17 4.52
RA/Game 4.25 3.76 4.52
OPS 0.729 0.707 0.720
wOBA 0.314 0.306 0.311
ERA 3.88 3.55 4.21
FIP 4.06 3.64 4.07
WHIP 1.18 1.21 1.31
K/9 8.17 8.62 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.522 0.547 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.20 3.68 4.30
BP FIP 4.25 3.81 4.09
BP WHIP 1.27 1.29
BP K/9 8.31 8.52
BP Quality* 47.7 44.1 46.6
BP IP 359.7 288.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Chris Roycroft (39 pitches yesterday)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Alec Gamboa (43 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 17 mph (gusts 35 mph)
Precip Chance: 19%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), strong wind in (17 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9787 (Temp: 1.0071 | Wind: 0.9718)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 3.8 - BOS 4.2
Simulated Avg: TB 3.8 - BOS 4.2
Win Probability: TB 44.9% - BOS 55.1%
Fair Moneyline: TB +123 / BOS -123
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 9.5: 33.5%
Under 9.5: 66.5%
TB -1.5: 28.6%
BOS +1.5: 71.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 1.9 - BOS 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 1.9 - BOS 2.2
F5 Win Prob: TB 44.5% - BOS 55.5% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +125 / BOS -125
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -109 +123 -7.3%
BOS ML -110 -123 +2.7%
TB -1.5 +147 +249 -11.9%
BOS +1.5 -178 -249 +7.4%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -18.9%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +14.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 9.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 14.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00941
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | July 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: MacKenzie Gore Home: Owen Murphy
ERA: 4.63 ERA: 2.25
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 0.25
K/9: 9.86 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 3.51 BB/9: 0.0
FIP: 3.57 FIP: 1.1
IP: 105.0 IP: 4.0
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 2.76
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.26
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Owen Murphy)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX ATL Lg Avg
Record 49-48 56-40
R/Game 4.12 4.95 4.52
RA/Game 4.42 3.84 4.52
OPS 0.717 0.729 0.720
wOBA 0.310 0.314 0.311
ERA 4.25 3.58 4.21
FIP 4.01 3.93 4.07
WHIP 1.27 1.22 1.31
K/9 8.69 8.58 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.614 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.52 3.33 4.30
BP FIP 4.26 3.57 4.09
BP WHIP 1.29 1.14
BP K/9 7.76 8.88
BP Quality* 50.7 40.6 46.6
BP IP 269.0 295.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Gavin Collyer (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Emiliano Teodo (43 pitches yesterday)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (34 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0522 (Temp: 1.0243 | Wind: 1.0273)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 3.6 - ATL 5.4
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.6 - ATL 5.4
Win Probability: TEX 32.2% - ATL 67.8%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +210 / ATL -210
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 9.0: 42.4%
Under 9.0: 48.8%
TEX -1.5: 18.9%
ATL +1.5: 81.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 1.9 - ATL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.9 - ATL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: TEX 35.1% - ATL 64.9% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +185 / ATL -185
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -105 +210 -19.0%
ATL ML -115 -210 +14.3%
TEX -1.5 +151 +428 -20.9%
ATL +1.5 -184 -428 +16.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -10.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -3.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Atlanta Braves (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -115 | Edge: 14.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00942
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | July 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Max Meyer Home: Shane Drohan
ERA: 2.58 ERA: 3.09
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 9.67 K/9: 8.61
BB/9: 3.17 BB/9: 2.57
FIP: 3.33 FIP: 3.16
IP: 108.0 IP: 70.0
xERA: 3.77 xERA: 3.36
xwOBA: 0.302 xwOBA: 0.286
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA MIL Lg Avg
Record 52-46 60-37
R/Game 4.49 5.06 4.52
RA/Game 4.26 3.75 4.52
OPS 0.739 0.734 0.720
wOBA 0.318 0.316 0.311
ERA 3.98 3.45 4.21
FIP 3.78 3.45 4.07
WHIP 1.24 1.16 1.31
K/9 8.63 9.71 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.525 0.634 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.24 3.52 4.30
BP FIP 3.58 3.65 4.09
BP WHIP 1.23 1.28
BP K/9 9.40 9.03
BP Quality* 43.0 41.4 46.6
BP IP 282.3 312.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0311 (Temp: 1.0172 | Wind: 1.0136)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 3.7 - MIL 4.4
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.7 - MIL 4.4
Win Probability: MIA 42.4% - MIL 57.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +136 / MIL -136
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.0: 42.5%
Under 8.0: 47.7%
MIA +1.5: 59.8%
MIL -1.5: 40.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 1.9 - MIL 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.9 - MIL 2.3
F5 Win Prob: MIA 43.3% - MIL 56.7% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +131 / MIL -131
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +123 +136 -2.4%
MIL ML -149 -136 -2.2%
MIA +1.5 -176 -149 -3.9%
MIL -1.5 +145 +149 -0.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -9.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -4.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | July 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Logan Webb Home: Bryan Woo
ERA: 3.86 ERA: 4.23
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 7.18 K/9: 8.8
BB/9: 2.33 BB/9: 1.73
FIP: 3.32 FIP: 2.97
IP: 100.3 IP: 104.3
xERA: 3.96 xERA: 3.51
xwOBA: 0.309 xwOBA: 0.292
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryan Woo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF SEA Lg Avg
Record 42-55 48-50
R/Game 4.14 4.00 4.52
RA/Game 4.73 3.91 4.52
OPS 0.730 0.686 0.720
wOBA 0.311 0.300 0.311
ERA 4.42 3.64 4.21
FIP 4.14 3.40 4.07
WHIP 1.36 1.19 1.31
K/9 7.74 8.66 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.440 0.511 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.66 3.42 4.30
BP FIP 4.39 3.51 4.09
BP WHIP 1.47 1.30
BP K/9 7.80 8.45
BP Quality* 50.4 40.6 46.6
BP IP 318.3 270.7
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9825 (Temp: 1.0002 | Wind: 0.9823)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 3.2 - SEA 3.6
Simulated Avg: SF 3.2 - SEA 3.6
Win Probability: SF 44.9% - SEA 55.1%
Fair Moneyline: SF +123 / SEA -123
Avg Total Runs: 6.8
Over 7.0: 39.5%
Under 7.0: 49.8%
SF +1.5: 64.5%
SEA -1.5: 35.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 1.7 - SEA 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.7 - SEA 1.8
F5 Win Prob: SF 48.3% - SEA 51.7% (Tie: 20.5%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +107 / SEA -107
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +129 +123 +1.2%
SEA ML -156 -123 -5.8%
SF +1.5 -186 -182 -0.5%
SEA -1.5 +153 +182 -4.0%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -12.9%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -2.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | July 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Emmet Sheehan Home: Ryan Weathers
ERA: 4.81 ERA: 4.15
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 10.17 K/9: 10.14
BB/9: 2.84 BB/9: 2.49
FIP: 4.16 FIP: 3.81
IP: 82.3 IP: 97.7
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 4.39
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Ryan Weathers)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD NYY Lg Avg
Record 62-36 54-43
R/Game 5.18 4.77 4.52
RA/Game 3.65 3.85 4.52
OPS 0.774 0.740 0.720
wOBA 0.331 0.317 0.311
ERA 3.52 3.38 4.21
FIP 3.68 3.63 4.07
WHIP 1.14 1.19 1.31
K/9 9.07 8.80 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.655 0.598 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.98 3.19 4.30
BP FIP 3.66 3.67 4.09
BP WHIP 1.28 1.20
BP K/9 9.80 8.41
BP Quality* 42.8 39.7 46.6
BP IP 321.3 343.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 48%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9849 (Temp: 1.0062 | Wind: 0.9789)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 4.6 - NYY 4.6
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.7 - NYY 4.6
Win Probability: LAD 49.8% - NYY 50.2%
Fair Moneyline: LAD +101 / NYY -101
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 9.0: 45.2%
Under 9.0: 46.0%
LAD -1.5: 34.5%
NYY +1.5: 65.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.7 - NYY 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.7 - NYY 2.6
F5 Win Prob: LAD 51.6% - NYY 48.4% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -106 / NYY +106
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -106 +101 -1.6%
NYY ML -113 -101 -2.9%
LAD -1.5 +153 +190 -5.0%
NYY +1.5 -186 -190 +0.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -7.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -6.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Athletics
Regular Season | July 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zack Littell Home: J.T. Ginn
ERA: 4.9 ERA: 3.67
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 5.7 K/9: 8.13
BB/9: 2.6 BB/9: 4.02
FIP: 6.02 FIP: 4.27
IP: 90.0 IP: 103.0
xERA: 6.39 xERA: 4.07
xwOBA: 0.381 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: ATH (J.T. Ginn)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH ATH Lg Avg
Record 49-49 41-56
R/Game 5.50 4.39 4.52
RA/Game 5.23 5.68 4.52
OPS 0.767 0.723 0.720
wOBA 0.327 0.311 0.311
ERA 4.74 5.38 4.21
FIP 4.54 4.82 4.07
WHIP 1.39 1.49 1.31
K/9 8.01 8.62 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.523 0.384 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.08 5.28 4.30
BP FIP 5.20 4.63 4.09
BP WHIP 1.61 1.53
BP K/9 8.53 9.34
BP Quality* 61.2 56.6 46.6
BP IP 327.0 341.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Riley Cornelio (47 pitches yesterday)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Justin Sterner (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Yunior Tur (47 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9720 (Temp: 0.9838 | Wind: 0.9880)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 5.8 - ATH 6.1
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.8 - ATH 6.1
Win Probability: WSH 47.0% - ATH 53.0%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +113 / ATH -113
Avg Total Runs: 11.8
Over 11.0: 49.7%
Under 11.0: 42.6%
WSH +1.5: 60.3%
ATH -1.5: 39.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.9 - ATH 3.4
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.9 - ATH 3.5
F5 Win Prob: WSH 43.1% - ATH 56.9% (Tie: 13.6%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH +132 / ATH -132
F5 Avg Total: 6.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +104 +113 -2.0%
ATH ML -125 -113 -2.5%
WSH +1.5 -186 -152 -4.7%
ATH -1.5 +153 +152 +0.2%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -2.7%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -9.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | July 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tarik Skubal Home: Grayson Rodriguez
ERA: 3.09 ERA: 7.55
WHIP: 0.95 WHIP: 1.74
K/9: 10.59 K/9: 6.97
BB/9: 1.31 BB/9: 4.65
FIP: 2.9 FIP: 4.78
IP: 75.7 IP: 31.0
xERA: 3.16 xERA: 6.94
xwOBA: 0.278 xwOBA: 0.394
Pitcher Edge: DET (Tarik Skubal)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET LAA Lg Avg
Record 45-52 38-60
R/Game 4.22 4.40 4.52
RA/Game 3.96 4.97 4.52
OPS 0.710 0.705 0.720
wOBA 0.307 0.306 0.311
ERA 3.62 4.63 4.21
FIP 3.66 4.16 4.07
WHIP 1.21 1.39 1.31
K/9 8.51 9.00 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.529 0.444 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.01 4.53 4.30
BP FIP 4.02 4.19 4.09
BP WHIP 1.34 1.41
BP K/9 8.54 9.75
BP Quality* 46.7 48.2 46.6
BP IP 341.3 327.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Keider Montero (43 pitches yesterday)
LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9901 (Temp: 1.0030 | Wind: 0.9871)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 5.4 - LAA 3.8
Simulated Avg: DET 5.4 - LAA 3.8
Win Probability: DET 65.0% - LAA 35.0%
Fair Moneyline: DET -186 / LAA +186
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.0: 52.6%
Under 8.0: 38.3%
DET -1.5: 49.3%
LAA +1.5: 50.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 3.4 - LAA 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 3.4 - LAA 1.8
F5 Win Prob: DET 74.6% - LAA 25.4% (Tie: 14.0%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -293 / LAA +293
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML -198 -186 -1.4%
LAA ML +163 +186 -3.0%
DET -1.5 -114 +103 -4.0%
LAA +1.5 -105 -103 -0.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +0.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -14.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================