2026-07-19
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-19
Games: 16 | Plays: 1
======================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | July 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sean Burke Home: Trey Yesavage
ERA: 3.41 ERA: 3.72
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 9.79 K/9: 8.28
BB/9: 2.81 BB/9: 4.68
FIP: 3.46 FIP: 4.03
IP: 105.7 IP: 75.0
xERA: 3.63 xERA: 3.33
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.284
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Sean Burke)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS TOR Lg Avg
Record 51-46 46-52
R/Game 4.80 4.05 4.52
RA/Game 4.37 4.48 4.52
OPS 0.731 0.690 0.721
wOBA 0.313 0.297 0.310
ERA 4.09 4.15 4.21
FIP 4.06 3.91 4.07
WHIP 1.32 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.56 8.99 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.543 0.454 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.28 3.71 4.30
BP FIP 4.35 3.35 4.09
BP WHIP 1.33 1.32
BP K/9 8.43 8.97
BP Quality* 47.8 40.9 46.6
BP IP 282.0 220.7
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Chase Meidroth, Everson Pereira
Chase Meidroth Second Base OPS: 0.723 (353 AB)
Everson Pereira Outfielder OPS: 0.719 (69 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.6% of full strength
TOR (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jesús Sánchez, Yohendrick Piñango, George Springer
Jesús Sánchez Outfielder OPS: 0.753 (215 AB)
Yohendrick Piñango Outfielder OPS: 0.726 (150 AB)
George Springer Designated Hitter OPS: 0.683 (265 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.5% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0019 (Temp: 1.0005 | Wind: 1.0015)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 4.0 - TOR 3.6
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.0 - TOR 3.6
Win Probability: CWS 54.2% - TOR 45.8%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -119 / TOR +119
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 8.0: 37.8%
Under 8.0: 52.3%
CWS -1.5: 36.6%
TOR +1.5: 63.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.2 - TOR 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.2 - TOR 1.8
F5 Win Prob: CWS 58.7% - TOR 41.3% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -142 / TOR +142
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML -120 -119 -0.3%
TOR ML +100 +119 -4.2%
CWS -1.5 +136 +173 -5.7%
TOR +1.5 -165 -173 +1.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -14.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -0.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | July 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Home: Cam Schlittler
ERA: 2.85 ERA: 2.05
WHIP: 0.91 WHIP: 0.94
K/9: 8.62 K/9: 10.39
BB/9: 2.03 BB/9: 1.9
FIP: 3.27 FIP: 2.74
IP: 110.7 IP: 118.7
xERA: 3.23 xERA: 3.0
xwOBA: 0.28 xwOBA: 0.27
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD NYY Lg Avg
Record 62-36 54-43
R/Game 5.18 4.77 4.52
RA/Game 3.65 3.85 4.52
OPS 0.774 0.740 0.721
wOBA 0.331 0.317 0.310
ERA 3.52 3.38 4.21
FIP 3.68 3.63 4.07
WHIP 1.14 1.19 1.31
K/9 9.07 8.80 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.655 0.598 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.94 3.17 4.30
BP FIP 3.66 3.66 4.09
BP WHIP 1.28 1.19
BP K/9 9.79 8.39
BP Quality* 42.6 39.6 46.6
BP IP 324.7 346.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Miguel Rojas, Ryan Ward, Will Smith
Miguel Rojas Second Base OPS: 0.755 (138 AB)
Ryan Ward Outfielder OPS: 0.738 (55 AB)
Will Smith Catcher OPS: 0.720 (173 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.4% of full strength
NYY (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Amed Rosario, Giancarlo Stanton
Aaron Judge Outfielder OPS: 0.908 (214 AB)
Paul Goldschmidt First Base OPS: 0.802 (243 AB)
Amed Rosario Third Base OPS: 0.737 (152 AB)
Giancarlo Stanton Designated Hitter OPS: 0.724 (90 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9979 (Temp: 1.0055 | Wind: 0.9924)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 3.5 - NYY 3.5
Simulated Avg: LAD 3.4 - NYY 3.5
Win Probability: LAD 48.6% - NYY 51.4%
Fair Moneyline: LAD +106 / NYY -106
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 9.0: 23.6%
Under 9.0: 68.1%
LAD -1.5: 30.2%
NYY +1.5: 69.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 1.7 - NYY 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 1.7 - NYY 1.8
F5 Win Prob: LAD 48.0% - NYY 52.0% (Tie: 21.0%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD +108 / NYY -108
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -125 +106 -7.0%
NYY ML +103 -106 +2.1%
LAD -1.5 +125 +231 -14.2%
NYY +1.5 -150 -231 +9.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -28.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +15.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 9.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 15.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00943
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees (Game 2)
Regular Season | July 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD NYY Lg Avg
Record 62-36 54-43
R/Game 5.18 4.77 4.52
RA/Game 3.65 3.85 4.52
OPS 0.774 0.740 0.721
wOBA 0.331 0.317 0.310
ERA 3.52 3.38 4.21
FIP 3.68 3.63 4.07
WHIP 1.14 1.19 1.31
K/9 9.07 8.80 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.655 0.598 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.94 3.17 4.30
BP FIP 3.66 3.66 4.09
BP WHIP 1.28 1.19
BP K/9 9.79 8.39
BP Quality* 42.6 39.6 46.6
BP IP 324.7 346.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Miguel Rojas, Ryan Ward, Will Smith
Miguel Rojas Second Base OPS: 0.755 (138 AB)
Ryan Ward Outfielder OPS: 0.738 (55 AB)
Will Smith Catcher OPS: 0.720 (173 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.4% of full strength
NYY (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Amed Rosario, Giancarlo Stanton
Aaron Judge Outfielder OPS: 0.908 (214 AB)
Paul Goldschmidt First Base OPS: 0.802 (243 AB)
Amed Rosario Third Base OPS: 0.737 (152 AB)
Giancarlo Stanton Designated Hitter OPS: 0.724 (90 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9979 (Temp: 1.0055 | Wind: 0.9924)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 4.5 - NYY 4.2
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.5 - NYY 4.2
Win Probability: LAD 52.6% - NYY 47.4%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -111 / NYY +111
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 9.0: 39.6%
Under 9.0: 51.3%
LAD -1.5: 36.4%
NYY +1.5: 63.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.7 - NYY 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.7 - NYY 2.4
F5 Win Prob: LAD 54.8% - NYY 45.2% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -121 / NYY +121
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -125 -111 -3.0%
NYY ML +103 +111 -1.8%
LAD -1.5 +125 +175 -8.0%
NYY +1.5 -150 -175 +3.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -12.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -1.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | July 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shane McClanahan Home: Sonny Gray
ERA: 2.83 ERA: 2.54
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 8.58 K/9: 8.0
BB/9: 2.93 BB/9: 2.26
FIP: 3.08 FIP: 3.43
IP: 86.0 IP: 95.7
xERA: 4.01 xERA: 3.63
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: TB (Shane McClanahan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB BOS Lg Avg
Record 56-41 49-48
R/Game 4.47 4.20 4.52
RA/Game 4.28 3.78 4.52
OPS 0.731 0.709 0.721
wOBA 0.314 0.306 0.310
ERA 3.89 3.56 4.21
FIP 4.08 3.66 4.07
WHIP 1.18 1.21 1.31
K/9 8.18 8.60 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.520 0.547 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.24 3.69 4.30
BP FIP 4.26 3.84 4.09
BP WHIP 1.26 1.29
BP K/9 8.26 8.46
BP Quality* 49.3 45.8 46.6
BP IP 340.0 307.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Masataka Yoshida, Anthony Seigler, Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Masataka Yoshida Designated Hitter OPS: 0.744 (187 AB)
Anthony Seigler Second Base OPS: 0.737 (86 AB)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa Second Base OPS: 0.705 (119 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), wind in (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9842 (Temp: 1.0129 | Wind: 0.9717)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 3.9 - BOS 3.8
Simulated Avg: TB 3.9 - BOS 3.8
Win Probability: TB 50.8% - BOS 49.2%
Fair Moneyline: TB -103 / BOS +103
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 8.0: 39.1%
Under 8.0: 50.9%
TB +1.5: 68.7%
BOS -1.5: 31.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.0 - BOS 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.0 - BOS 1.8
F5 Win Prob: TB 53.1% - BOS 46.9% (Tie: 19.5%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -113 / BOS +113
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML +104 -103 +1.8%
BOS ML -126 +103 -6.6%
TB +1.5 -204 -219 +1.6%
BOS -1.5 +167 +219 -6.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -13.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -1.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | July 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nolan McLean Home: Alan Rangel
ERA: 3.52 ERA: 4.19
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 10.48 K/9: 10.24
BB/9: 3.27 BB/9: 4.19
FIP: 3.07 FIP: 4.24
IP: 107.3 IP: 19.3
xERA: 3.51 xERA: 3.51
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM PHI Lg Avg
Record 41-58 55-44
R/Game 4.07 4.35 4.52
RA/Game 4.75 4.43 4.52
OPS 0.682 0.702 0.721
wOBA 0.295 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.26 4.20 4.21
FIP 3.89 3.64 4.07
WHIP 1.31 1.31 1.31
K/9 9.22 9.93 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.430 0.492 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.74 4.57 4.30
BP FIP 3.86 3.63 4.09
BP WHIP 1.26 1.39
BP K/9 9.34 10.33
BP Quality* 44.3 45.2 46.6
BP IP 247.7 305.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kodai Senga (45 pitches yesterday)
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Francisco Alvarez, Tyrone Taylor, MJ Melendez, Luis Robert Jr.
Francisco Alvarez Catcher OPS: 0.766 (215 AB)
Tyrone Taylor Outfielder OPS: 0.700 (124 AB)
MJ Melendez Designated Hitter OPS: 0.665 (120 AB)
Luis Robert Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.656 (85 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.2% of full strength
PHI (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Derek Hill, Edmundo Sosa
Derek Hill Outfielder OPS: 0.727 (136 AB)
Edmundo Sosa Outfielder OPS: 0.635 (151 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0110 (Temp: 1.0110 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 3.9 - PHI 3.9
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.9 - PHI 3.9
Win Probability: NYM 49.2% - PHI 50.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +103 / PHI -103
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 8.5: 39.7%
Under 8.5: 60.3%
NYM -1.5: 32.1%
PHI +1.5: 67.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.2 - PHI 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.2 - PHI 2.0
F5 Win Prob: NYM 54.5% - PHI 45.5% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -120 / PHI +120
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML -131 +103 -7.5%
PHI ML +109 -103 +3.0%
NYM -1.5 +124 +211 -12.5%
PHI +1.5 -149 -211 +8.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -12.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +7.9%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (Run Line) [-149]
Model: 67.8% | Market: 59.8% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: -211 | Kelly: 4.99%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00944
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | July 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nathan Eovaldi Home: Grant Holmes
ERA: 4.04 ERA: 3.61
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 9.7 K/9: 7.83
BB/9: 2.1 BB/9: 4.02
FIP: 3.86 FIP: 4.93
IP: 111.3 IP: 87.3
xERA: 3.96 xERA: 4.58
xwOBA: 0.308 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Nathan Eovaldi)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX ATL Lg Avg
Record 50-48 56-41
R/Game 4.15 4.96 4.52
RA/Game 4.44 3.88 4.52
OPS 0.719 0.730 0.721
wOBA 0.311 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.27 3.60 4.21
FIP 4.01 3.95 4.07
WHIP 1.27 1.22 1.31
K/9 8.69 8.58 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.611 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.71 3.42 4.30
BP FIP 4.30 3.62 4.09
BP WHIP 1.31 1.16
BP K/9 7.71 8.85
BP Quality* 48.7 39.8 46.6
BP IP 275.3 305.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Justin Foscue, Elias Díaz
Justin Foscue Second Base OPS: 0.886 (110 AB)
Elias Díaz Catcher OPS: 0.743 (93 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.8% of full strength
ATL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ronald Acuña Jr., Eli White, Mike Yastrzemski
Ronald Acuña Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.794 (195 AB)
Eli White Outfielder OPS: 0.691 (119 AB)
Mike Yastrzemski Outfielder OPS: 0.686 (230 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 19%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0288 (Temp: 1.0291 | Wind: 0.9997)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 3.9 - ATL 4.9
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.9 - ATL 4.9
Win Probability: TEX 40.4% - ATL 59.6%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +147 / ATL -147
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 9.0: 41.1%
Under 9.0: 50.1%
TEX -1.5: 25.3%
ATL +1.5: 74.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.4 - ATL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.4 - ATL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: TEX 46.3% - ATL 53.7% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +116 / ATL -116
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -121 +147 -14.3%
ATL ML +100 -147 +9.6%
TEX -1.5 +134 +296 -17.5%
ATL +1.5 -162 -296 +12.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -11.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -2.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Atlanta Braves +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -162 | Edge: 12.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00945
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | July 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Paul Skenes Home: Joey Cantillo
ERA: 3.57 ERA: 3.56
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 10.8 K/9: 9.36
BB/9: 1.99 BB/9: 4.37
FIP: 2.68 FIP: 4.02
IP: 108.3 IP: 101.0
xERA: 2.73 xERA: 3.9
xwOBA: 0.258 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT CLE Lg Avg
Record 51-48 52-47
R/Game 5.31 3.95 4.52
RA/Game 4.83 4.01 4.52
OPS 0.768 0.679 0.721
wOBA 0.332 0.295 0.310
ERA 4.30 3.73 4.21
FIP 3.80 3.85 4.07
WHIP 1.32 1.26 1.31
K/9 9.22 9.18 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.544 0.493 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.56 3.71 4.30
BP FIP 4.29 3.61 4.09
BP WHIP 1.44 1.31
BP K/9 9.21 10.02
BP Quality* 52.0 41.8 46.6
BP IP 270.7 332.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Khristian Curtis (68 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Carmen Mlodzinski (41 pitches yesterday)
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Endy Rodríguez, Spencer Horwitz, Oneil Cruz, Brandon Lowe, Tyler Callihan
Endy Rodríguez Catcher OPS: 0.858 (100 AB)
Spencer Horwitz First Base OPS: 0.841 (246 AB)
Oneil Cruz Outfielder OPS: 0.822 (250 AB)
Brandon Lowe Second Base OPS: 0.802 (363 AB)
Tyler Callihan Outfielder OPS: 0.774 (82 AB)
Run Adjustment: 85.7% of full strength
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: José Ramírez, Austin Hedges, Angel Martínez, David Fry, Rhys Hoskins
José Ramírez Third Base OPS: 0.757 (268 AB)
Austin Hedges Catcher OPS: 0.751 (130 AB)
Angel Martínez Outfielder OPS: 0.718 (226 AB)
David Fry Unknown OPS: 0.690 (129 AB)
Rhys Hoskins First Base OPS: 0.671 (220 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0554 (Temp: 1.0083 | Wind: 1.0468)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 4.2 - CLE 3.2
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.2 - CLE 3.2
Win Probability: PIT 59.8% - CLE 40.2%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -149 / CLE +149
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.0: 45.6%
Under 7.0: 43.6%
PIT -1.5: 41.7%
CLE +1.5: 58.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 2.4 - CLE 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.4 - CLE 1.4
F5 Win Prob: PIT 68.3% - CLE 31.7% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -215 / CLE +215
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML -112 -149 +7.0%
CLE ML -108 +149 -11.8%
PIT -1.5 +152 +140 +2.1%
CLE +1.5 -185 -140 -6.7%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -6.8%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -8.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | July 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brandon Young Home: Hunter Brown
ERA: 3.42 ERA: 3.57
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 7.15 K/9: 9.93
BB/9: 3.31 BB/9: 5.6
FIP: 4.0 FIP: 4.6
IP: 84.3 IP: 35.3
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 3.79
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.302
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Brandon Young)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL HOU Lg Avg
Record 48-51 47-53
R/Game 4.59 4.53 4.52
RA/Game 4.75 5.03 4.52
OPS 0.717 0.726 0.721
wOBA 0.310 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.23 4.75 4.21
FIP 4.09 4.64 4.07
WHIP 1.35 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.01 8.86 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.452 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 4.42 4.30
BP FIP 3.92 4.50 4.09
BP WHIP 1.28 1.35
BP K/9 8.61 8.92
BP Quality* 50.6 54.8 46.6
BP IP 352.3 372.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Tyler Wells (B2B, 29 pitches)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cam Sanders (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Enyel De Los Santos (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0391 (Temp: 1.0290 | Wind: 1.0099)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 4.9 - HOU 4.8
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.9 - HOU 4.8
Win Probability: BAL 51.1% - HOU 48.9%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -105 / HOU +105
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.5: 57.4%
Under 8.5: 42.6%
BAL -1.5: 36.3%
HOU +1.5: 63.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 2.5 - HOU 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.5 - HOU 2.5
F5 Win Prob: BAL 51.0% - HOU 49.0% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -104 / HOU +104
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML +101 -105 +1.4%
HOU ML -121 +105 -5.9%
BAL -1.5 +161 +176 -2.0%
HOU +1.5 -197 -176 -2.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +5.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -9.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | July 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Germán Márquez Home: Noah Cameron
ERA: 5.18 ERA: 4.89
WHIP: 1.49 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 6.05 K/9: 8.56
BB/9: 4.32 BB/9: 3.01
FIP: 6.31 FIP: 3.97
IP: 41.7 IP: 95.7
xERA: 5.7 xERA: 4.96
xwOBA: 0.362 xwOBA: 0.341
Pitcher Edge: KC (Noah Cameron)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD KC Lg Avg
Record 48-50 40-59
R/Game 3.94 4.28 4.52
RA/Game 4.44 5.11 4.52
OPS 0.673 0.716 0.721
wOBA 0.291 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.26 4.88 4.21
FIP 4.11 4.63 4.07
WHIP 1.34 1.44 1.31
K/9 8.26 7.76 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.446 0.420 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.75 5.49 4.30
BP FIP 3.59 5.16 4.09
BP WHIP 1.24 1.58
BP K/9 9.64 7.59
BP Quality* 41.3 59.1 46.6
BP IP 295.0 368.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Bobby Witt Jr., Michael Massey, Maikel Garcia
Bobby Witt Jr. Shortstop OPS: 0.801 (368 AB)
Michael Massey Second Base OPS: 0.734 (235 AB)
Maikel Garcia Third Base OPS: 0.693 (268 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 93°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 20%
Conditions: Hot (93°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0539 (Temp: 1.0312 | Wind: 1.0220)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 4.7 - KC 5.0
Simulated Avg: SD 4.7 - KC 5.0
Win Probability: SD 46.2% - KC 53.8%
Fair Moneyline: SD +117 / KC -117
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 9.5: 48.6%
Under 9.5: 51.4%
SD -1.5: 32.0%
KC +1.5: 68.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.4 - KC 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.4 - KC 3.3
F5 Win Prob: SD 38.0% - KC 62.0% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +163 / KC -163
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML -102 +117 -4.3%
KC ML -119 -117 -0.5%
SD -1.5 +157 +212 -6.9%
KC +1.5 -191 -212 +2.4%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -3.8%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -1.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | July 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Eury Pérez Home: Robert Gasser
ERA: 3.78 ERA: 5.24
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 9.98 K/9: 8.35
BB/9: 3.57 BB/9: 2.72
FIP: 4.05 FIP: 4.96
IP: 85.7 IP: 46.3
xERA: 4.19 xERA: 3.85
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.304
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Eury Pérez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA MIL Lg Avg
Record 52-47 61-37
R/Game 4.51 5.09 4.52
RA/Game 4.29 3.78 4.52
OPS 0.738 0.735 0.721
wOBA 0.318 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.02 3.48 4.21
FIP 3.78 3.43 4.07
WHIP 1.25 1.16 1.31
K/9 8.65 9.74 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.522 0.634 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.28 3.53 4.30
BP FIP 3.59 3.64 4.09
BP WHIP 1.25 1.27
BP K/9 9.44 9.06
BP Quality* 47.9 45.8 46.6
BP IP 288.0 319.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Calvin Faucher (B2B, 31 pitches)
TIRED: Ryan Gusto (38 pitches yesterday)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Craig Yoho (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0088 (Temp: 1.0081 | Wind: 1.0007)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 4.6 - MIL 5.1
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.6 - MIL 5.1
Win Probability: MIA 45.7% - MIL 54.3%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +119 / MIL -119
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 8.0: 57.8%
Under 8.0: 33.5%
MIA +1.5: 61.1%
MIL -1.5: 38.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.7 - MIL 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.7 - MIL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: MIA 50.1% - MIL 49.9% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -100 / MIL +100
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +109 +119 -2.1%
MIL ML -131 -119 -2.4%
MIA +1.5 -197 -157 -5.3%
MIL -1.5 +161 +157 +0.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +5.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -18.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | July 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zebby Matthews Home: Shota Imanaga
ERA: 4.57 ERA: 4.17
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 7.25 K/9: 8.75
BB/9: 2.42 BB/9: 2.25
FIP: 5.01 FIP: 4.55
IP: 67.0 IP: 108.0
xERA: 4.61 xERA: 3.77
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Shota Imanaga)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN CHC Lg Avg
Record 49-50 55-43
R/Game 4.83 5.02 4.52
RA/Game 4.98 4.48 4.52
OPS 0.737 0.746 0.721
wOBA 0.318 0.323 0.310
ERA 4.62 4.31 4.21
FIP 4.17 4.63 4.07
WHIP 1.38 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.49 7.90 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.552 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.88 4.55 4.30
BP FIP 4.29 4.79 4.09
BP WHIP 1.48 1.39
BP K/9 8.11 8.01
BP Quality* 52.2 50.9 46.6
BP IP 398.3 377.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mike Paredes (40 pitches yesterday)
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0472 (Temp: 1.0079 | Wind: 1.0389)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 5.3 - CHC 6.3
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.3 - CHC 6.3
Win Probability: MIN 42.0% - CHC 58.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +138 / CHC -138
Avg Total Runs: 11.6
Over 7.5: 77.2%
Under 7.5: 22.8%
MIN +1.5: 55.7%
CHC -1.5: 44.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.9 - CHC 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.9 - CHC 3.5
F5 Win Prob: MIN 42.0% - CHC 58.0% (Tie: 13.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +138 / CHC -138
F5 Avg Total: 6.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +139 +138 +0.2%
CHC ML -169 -138 -4.8%
MIN +1.5 -156 -126 -5.3%
CHC -1.5 +129 +126 +0.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +24.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -29.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 24.8%
[HELD FOR REVIEW] high-edge total -> output/TOTALS_REVIEW_QUEUE.json
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | July 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Hunter Greene Home: Ryan Feltner
ERA: 6.97 ERA: 4.55
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 16.55 K/9: 6.68
BB/9: 4.35 BB/9: 3.41
FIP: 2.13 FIP: 5.01
IP: 10.3 IP: 63.3
xERA: 4.83 xERA: 5.13
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.346
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Hunter Greene)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN COL Lg Avg
Record 44-53 40-60
R/Game 4.18 4.78 4.52
RA/Game 4.81 5.65 4.52
OPS 0.708 0.746 0.721
wOBA 0.306 0.321 0.310
ERA 4.56 5.42 4.21
FIP 4.71 4.66 4.07
WHIP 1.44 1.51 1.31
K/9 8.18 7.21 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.435 0.424 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.82 5.09 4.30
BP FIP 4.90 4.37 4.09
BP WHIP 1.47 1.53
BP K/9 8.62 7.64
BP Quality* 54.7 52.2 46.6
BP IP 373.7 364.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (32 pitches yesterday)
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0653 (Temp: 1.0378 | Wind: 1.0265)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 5.8 - COL 7.5
Simulated Avg: CIN 5.8 - COL 7.5
Win Probability: CIN 37.5% - COL 62.5%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +167 / COL -167
Avg Total Runs: 13.2
Over 11.0: 58.8%
Under 11.0: 34.3%
CIN -1.5: 26.6%
COL +1.5: 73.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 3.3 - COL 4.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 3.3 - COL 4.3
F5 Win Prob: CIN 38.7% - COL 61.3% (Tie: 11.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +159 / COL -159
F5 Avg Total: 7.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML -171 +167 -25.6%
COL ML +141 -167 +21.0%
CIN -1.5 -110 +276 -25.8%
COL +1.5 -110 -276 +21.0%
O 11.0 -110 N/A +6.4%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -18.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 21.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00946
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Athletics
Regular Season | July 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Foster Griffin Home: Jacob Lopez
ERA: 2.77 ERA: 6.83
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 1.79
K/9: 8.89 K/9: 6.99
BB/9: 2.12 BB/9: 5.53
FIP: 3.83 FIP: 5.98
IP: 110.3 IP: 55.3
xERA: 3.85 xERA: 3.9
xwOBA: 0.304 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Foster Griffin)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH ATH Lg Avg
Record 49-50 42-56
R/Game 5.45 4.50 4.52
RA/Game 5.33 5.63 4.52
OPS 0.764 0.728 0.721
wOBA 0.326 0.313 0.310
ERA 4.85 5.33 4.21
FIP 4.58 4.79 4.07
WHIP 1.40 1.48 1.31
K/9 8.00 8.65 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.510 0.399 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.19 5.67 4.30
BP FIP 5.25 4.73 4.09
BP WHIP 1.63 1.56
BP K/9 8.57 9.36
BP Quality* 63.4 57.1 46.6
BP IP 331.7 349.0
Bullpen Edge: ATH (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Max Kranick (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jorbit Vivas (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mark Leiter Jr. (31 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9837 (Temp: 0.9994 | Wind: 0.9843)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 6.9 - ATH 4.9
Simulated Avg: WSH 6.9 - ATH 4.9
Win Probability: WSH 65.6% - ATH 34.4%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -191 / ATH +191
Avg Total Runs: 11.8
Over 10.5: 56.7%
Under 10.5: 43.3%
WSH -1.5: 52.8%
ATH +1.5: 47.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 4.0 - ATH 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 4.0 - ATH 2.2
F5 Win Prob: WSH 73.4% - ATH 26.6% (Tie: 12.3%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -276 / ATH +276
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML -149 -191 +5.8%
ATH ML +123 +191 -10.5%
WSH -1.5 +104 -112 +3.8%
ATH +1.5 -126 +112 -8.6%
O 10.5 -110 N/A +4.3%
U 10.5 -110 N/A -9.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | July 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Casey Mize Home: Ryan Johnson
ERA: 2.79 ERA: 6.75
WHIP: 1.0 WHIP: 1.5
K/9: 8.96 K/9: 6.75
BB/9: 2.09 BB/9: 3.51
FIP: 2.65 FIP: 6.28
IP: 77.3 IP: 33.3
xERA: 3.09 xERA: 4.99
xwOBA: 0.274 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: DET (Casey Mize)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET LAA Lg Avg
Record 46-52 38-61
R/Game 4.24 4.35 4.52
RA/Game 3.92 4.99 4.52
OPS 0.712 0.703 0.721
wOBA 0.308 0.305 0.310
ERA 3.58 4.65 4.21
FIP 3.63 4.16 4.07
WHIP 1.21 1.39 1.31
K/9 8.52 8.98 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.537 0.438 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.98 4.50 4.30
BP FIP 4.03 4.16 4.09
BP WHIP 1.35 1.40
BP K/9 8.52 9.76
BP Quality* 45.2 49.4 46.6
BP IP 343.3 335.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brent Suter (39 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0005 (Temp: 1.0195 | Wind: 0.9814)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 5.3 - LAA 3.6
Simulated Avg: DET 5.3 - LAA 3.6
Win Probability: DET 66.8% - LAA 33.2%
Fair Moneyline: DET -201 / LAA +201
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.5: 41.8%
Under 9.5: 58.2%
DET -1.5: 51.1%
LAA +1.5: 48.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 3.3 - LAA 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 3.3 - LAA 1.7
F5 Win Prob: DET 75.4% - LAA 24.6% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -306 / LAA +306
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -157 -201 +5.7%
LAA ML +130 +201 -10.3%
DET -1.5 +102 -104 +1.6%
LAA +1.5 -123 +104 -6.2%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -10.6%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +5.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | July 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Robbie Ray Home: Logan Gilbert
ERA: 3.38 ERA: 3.32
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 7.59 K/9: 9.39
BB/9: 4.39 BB/9: 1.89
FIP: 4.7 FIP: 3.24
IP: 106.7 IP: 114.0
xERA: 4.64 xERA: 3.82
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Logan Gilbert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF SEA Lg Avg
Record 42-56 49-50
R/Game 4.13 4.00 4.52
RA/Game 4.72 3.90 4.52
OPS 0.729 0.684 0.721
wOBA 0.310 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.40 3.62 4.21
FIP 4.14 3.41 4.07
WHIP 1.35 1.18 1.31
K/9 7.74 8.69 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.439 0.512 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.59 3.46 4.30
BP FIP 4.36 3.51 4.09
BP WHIP 1.46 1.30
BP K/9 7.82 8.48
BP Quality* 50.0 42.3 46.6
BP IP 323.3 278.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0394 (Temp: 0.9998 | Wind: 1.0396)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 3.4 - SEA 4.2
Simulated Avg: SF 3.4 - SEA 4.2
Win Probability: SF 40.9% - SEA 59.1%
Fair Moneyline: SF +144 / SEA -144
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.0: 47.5%
Under 7.0: 41.9%
SF +1.5: 59.3%
SEA -1.5: 40.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 1.8 - SEA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.8 - SEA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SF 41.4% - SEA 58.6% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +142 / SEA -142
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +163 +144 +2.9%
SEA ML -199 -144 -7.5%
SF +1.5 -135 -146 +1.9%
SEA -1.5 +112 +146 -6.5%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -4.9%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -10.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | July 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andre Pallante Home: Eduardo Rodriguez
ERA: 3.96 ERA: 2.29
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 6.48 K/9: 6.24
BB/9: 2.61 BB/9: 3.08
FIP: 3.83 FIP: 4.11
IP: 100.0 IP: 114.0
xERA: 3.77 xERA: 5.1
xwOBA: 0.301 xwOBA: 0.345
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL ARI Lg Avg
Record 51-46 50-48
R/Game 4.51 4.34 4.52
RA/Game 4.45 4.46 4.52
OPS 0.707 0.693 0.721
wOBA 0.305 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.13 4.18 4.21
FIP 3.98 4.30 4.07
WHIP 1.33 1.27 1.31
K/9 7.60 6.94 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.505 0.487 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.10 3.71 4.30
BP FIP 3.95 3.67 4.09
BP WHIP 1.32 1.16
BP K/9 7.81 7.76
BP Quality* 45.3 45.8 46.6
BP IP 349.0 308.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.3 - ARI 4.2
Simulated Avg: STL 4.3 - ARI 4.2
Win Probability: STL 51.2% - ARI 48.8%
Fair Moneyline: STL -105 / ARI +105
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 9.0: 38.0%
Under 9.0: 52.9%
STL +1.5: 67.8%
ARI -1.5: 32.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.4 - ARI 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.4 - ARI 2.2
F5 Win Prob: STL 52.0% - ARI 48.0% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -108 / ARI +108
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +104 -105 +2.1%
ARI ML -125 +105 -6.7%
STL +1.5 -198 -211 +1.4%
ARI -1.5 +162 +211 -6.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -14.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +0.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================