2026-07-20
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-20
Games: 15 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | July 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Joe Ryan Home: Tanner Bibee
ERA: 2.85 ERA: 3.9
WHIP: 1.05 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 10.44 K/9: 6.93
BB/9: 2.04 BB/9: 2.71
FIP: 2.64 FIP: 4.76
IP: 110.3 IP: 113.0
xERA: 3.21 xERA: 4.67
xwOBA: 0.279 xwOBA: 0.332
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Joe Ryan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN CLE Lg Avg
Record 49-51 52-48
R/Game 4.79 3.92 4.52
RA/Game 5.03 4.04 4.52
OPS 0.735 0.678 0.721
wOBA 0.318 0.295 0.311
ERA 4.66 3.76 4.21
FIP 4.17 3.84 4.07
WHIP 1.38 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.51 9.24 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.478 0.486 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.82 3.75 4.30
BP FIP 4.28 3.62 4.11
BP WHIP 1.48 1.32
BP K/9 8.12 10.11
BP Quality* 51.9 46.5 46.7
BP IP 403.3 336.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Travis Adams (45 pitches yesterday)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Will Dion (B2B, 31 pitches)
TIRED: Franco Aleman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 4.7 - CLE 3.3
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.7 - CLE 3.3
Win Probability: MIN 64.2% - CLE 35.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -179 / CLE +179
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.5: 52.5%
Under 7.5: 47.5%
MIN -1.5: 47.4%
CLE +1.5: 52.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 2.7 - CLE 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.8 - CLE 1.5
F5 Win Prob: MIN 72.7% - CLE 27.3% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -266 / CLE +266
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML -120 -179 +9.7%
CLE ML +100 +179 -14.2%
MIN -1.5 +141 +111 +5.9%
CLE +1.5 -171 -111 -10.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +0.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -4.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | July 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Braxton Ashcraft Home: Ryan Weathers
ERA: 3.49 ERA: 4.15
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 10.16 K/9: 10.14
BB/9: 2.14 BB/9: 2.49
FIP: 3.16 FIP: 3.81
IP: 113.3 IP: 97.7
xERA: 3.31 xERA: 4.43
xwOBA: 0.283 xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Braxton Ashcraft)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT NYY Lg Avg
Record 52-48 55-44
R/Game 5.33 4.72 4.52
RA/Game 4.79 3.86 4.52
OPS 0.769 0.738 0.721
wOBA 0.332 0.316 0.311
ERA 4.26 3.40 4.21
FIP 3.78 3.62 4.07
WHIP 1.31 1.19 1.31
K/9 9.24 8.84 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.549 0.591 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.54 3.20 4.30
BP FIP 4.28 3.69 4.11
BP WHIP 1.44 1.20
BP K/9 9.21 8.39
BP Quality* 50.4 48.9 46.7
BP IP 271.7 360.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Isaac Mattson (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Jake Bird (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Bednar (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9994 (Temp: 1.0051 | Wind: 0.9943)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 5.2 - NYY 4.3
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.2 - NYY 4.3
Win Probability: PIT 58.4% - NYY 41.6%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -140 / NYY +140
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 7.5: 65.2%
Under 7.5: 34.8%
PIT -1.5: 43.0%
NYY +1.5: 57.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 2.9 - NYY 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.8 - NYY 2.1
F5 Win Prob: PIT 62.4% - NYY 37.6% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -166 / NYY +166
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML -103 -140 +7.7%
NYY ML -117 +140 -12.3%
PIT -1.5 +163 +132 +5.0%
NYY +1.5 -199 -132 -9.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +12.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -17.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00947
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | July 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Martinez Home: Dylan Cease
ERA: 2.65 ERA: 2.56
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 5.3 K/9: 13.55
BB/9: 1.62 BB/9: 4.03
FIP: 3.82 FIP: 2.09
IP: 105.3 IP: 98.3
xERA: 4.71 xERA: 2.87
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.264
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Dylan Cease)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB TOR Lg Avg
Record 56-42 46-53
R/Game 4.44 4.01 4.52
RA/Game 4.30 4.46 4.52
OPS 0.731 0.687 0.721
wOBA 0.314 0.296 0.311
ERA 3.90 4.14 4.21
FIP 4.09 3.90 4.07
WHIP 1.18 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.15 9.02 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.515 0.451 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.20 3.69 4.30
BP FIP 4.24 3.35 4.11
BP WHIP 1.25 1.31
BP K/9 8.24 8.93
BP Quality* 52.0 42.3 46.7
BP IP 343.0 221.7
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Roycroft (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9654 (Temp: 1.0024 | Wind: 0.9631)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 3.0 - TOR 3.9
Simulated Avg: TB 3.0 - TOR 4.0
Win Probability: TB 38.8% - TOR 61.2%
Fair Moneyline: TB +158 / TOR -158
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 7.5: 41.1%
Under 7.5: 58.9%
TB +1.5: 58.2%
TOR -1.5: 41.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 1.4 - TOR 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 1.4 - TOR 2.0
F5 Win Prob: TB 37.2% - TOR 62.7% (Tie: 20.7%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +168 / TOR -168
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +139 +158 -3.1%
TOR ML -168 -158 -1.5%
TB +1.5 -162 -139 -3.6%
TOR -1.5 +134 +139 -1.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -11.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +6.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | July 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane Baz Home: Payton Tolle
ERA: 4.19 ERA: 3.11
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 7.98 K/9: 9.32
BB/9: 3.39 BB/9: 2.68
FIP: 3.5 FIP: 3.16
IP: 111.7 IP: 84.0
xERA: 4.37 xERA: 3.02
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Payton Tolle)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL BOS Lg Avg
Record 49-51 50-48
R/Game 4.59 4.21 4.52
RA/Game 4.72 3.76 4.52
OPS 0.717 0.708 0.721
wOBA 0.311 0.306 0.311
ERA 4.21 3.53 4.21
FIP 4.08 3.67 4.07
WHIP 1.35 1.22 1.31
K/9 8.01 8.59 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.487 0.553 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 3.67 4.30
BP FIP 3.95 3.82 4.11
BP WHIP 1.28 1.29
BP K/9 8.59 8.50
BP Quality* 52.3 50.2 46.7
BP IP 354.3 309.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cam Sanders (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Jovani Morán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9935 (Temp: 1.0117 | Wind: 0.9821)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.1 - BOS 4.6
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.1 - BOS 4.6
Win Probability: BAL 44.9% - BOS 55.1%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +123 / BOS -123
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.5: 48.8%
Under 8.5: 51.2%
BAL +1.5: 61.7%
BOS -1.5: 38.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 1.9 - BOS 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 1.9 - BOS 2.3
F5 Win Prob: BAL 43.1% - BOS 56.9% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +132 / BOS -132
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +130 +123 +1.5%
BOS ML -157 -123 -6.0%
BAL +1.5 -167 -161 -0.9%
BOS -1.5 +138 +161 -3.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -3.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -1.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | July 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Emmet Sheehan Home: Cristopher Sánchez
ERA: 4.81 ERA: 2.62
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 10.17 K/9: 10.18
BB/9: 2.84 BB/9: 1.77
FIP: 4.16 FIP: 2.65
IP: 82.3 IP: 127.3
xERA: 3.91 xERA: 3.21
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.279
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD PHI Lg Avg
Record 63-37 55-45
R/Game 5.17 4.32 4.52
RA/Game 3.62 4.45 4.52
OPS 0.772 0.701 0.721
wOBA 0.331 0.302 0.311
ERA 3.49 4.21 4.21
FIP 3.68 3.66 4.07
WHIP 1.14 1.32 1.31
K/9 9.06 9.91 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.658 0.486 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.07 4.54 4.30
BP FIP 3.80 3.61 4.11
BP WHIP 1.27 1.40
BP K/9 9.72 10.28
BP Quality* 46.7 48.1 46.7
BP IP 294.3 289.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Seth Johnson (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Max Lazar (42 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9966 (Temp: 1.0120 | Wind: 0.9848)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 4.3 - PHI 4.5
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.3 - PHI 4.5
Win Probability: LAD 47.0% - PHI 53.0%
Fair Moneyline: LAD +113 / PHI -113
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 49.8%
Under 8.5: 50.2%
LAD +1.5: 63.5%
PHI -1.5: 36.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 2.0 - PHI 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.0 - PHI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: LAD 40.5% - PHI 59.5% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD +147 / PHI -147
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML +118 +113 +1.1%
PHI ML -142 -113 -5.7%
LAD +1.5 -175 -174 -0.2%
PHI -1.5 +144 +174 -4.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | July 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: JP Sears Home: Bryce Elder
ERA: 5.03 ERA: 4.12
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 7.78 K/9: 7.54
BB/9: 3.66 BB/9: 2.81
FIP: 5.23 FIP: 4.26
IP: 19.7 IP: 102.7
xERA: 5.41 xERA: 3.82
xwOBA: 0.354 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Bryce Elder)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD ATL Lg Avg
Record 49-50 57-41
R/Game 4.09 4.99 4.52
RA/Game 4.41 3.89 4.52
OPS 0.682 0.734 0.721
wOBA 0.295 0.316 0.311
ERA 4.24 3.62 4.21
FIP 4.11 3.95 4.07
WHIP 1.34 1.23 1.31
K/9 8.25 8.57 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.465 0.612 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.73 3.44 4.30
BP FIP 3.57 3.63 4.11
BP WHIP 1.23 1.16
BP K/9 9.67 8.88
BP Quality* 42.5 47.4 46.7
BP IP 297.0 309.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Randy Vásquez (32 pitches yesterday)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Dylan Lee (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 17%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0255 (Temp: 1.0288 | Wind: 0.9968)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 4.1 - ATL 5.4
Simulated Avg: SD 4.1 - ATL 5.4
Win Probability: SD 38.3% - ATL 61.7%
Fair Moneyline: SD +161 / ATL -161
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 9.0: 47.1%
Under 9.0: 44.2%
SD +1.5: 54.0%
ATL -1.5: 46.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.3 - ATL 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.3 - ATL 3.2
F5 Win Prob: SD 36.4% - ATL 63.6% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +175 / ATL -175
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML +109 +161 -9.6%
ATL ML -131 -161 +5.0%
SD +1.5 -175 -118 -9.6%
ATL -1.5 +144 +118 +5.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -5.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -8.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | July 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trevor McDonald Home: Michael Wacha
ERA: 5.02 ERA: 3.77
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 7.33 K/9: 7.24
BB/9: 2.85 BB/9: 2.56
FIP: 3.6 FIP: 3.87
IP: 66.3 IP: 119.3
xERA: 3.91 xERA: 4.16
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF KC Lg Avg
Record 42-57 40-60
R/Game 4.12 4.26 4.52
RA/Game 4.74 5.25 4.52
OPS 0.727 0.715 0.721
wOBA 0.309 0.308 0.311
ERA 4.40 4.99 4.21
FIP 4.15 4.70 4.07
WHIP 1.35 1.46 1.31
K/9 7.74 7.73 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.437 0.406 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 5.65 4.30
BP FIP 4.36 5.30 4.11
BP WHIP 1.45 1.60
BP K/9 7.80 7.58
BP Quality* 52.9 66.4 46.7
BP IP 324.3 372.7
Bullpen Edge: SF (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Adrian Houser (50 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Beck Way (B2B, 35 pitches)
TIRED: Tyler Tolbert (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Lucas Erceg (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 100°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (100°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0207 (Temp: 1.0413 | Wind: 0.9803)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 4.6 - KC 4.5
Simulated Avg: SF 4.6 - KC 4.5
Win Probability: SF 50.5% - KC 49.5%
Fair Moneyline: SF -102 / KC +102
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 10.5: 35.3%
Under 10.5: 64.7%
SF -1.5: 34.9%
KC +1.5: 65.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 2.1 - KC 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.1 - KC 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SF 46.9% - KC 53.1% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +113 / KC -113
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML -102 -102 +0.0%
KC ML -118 +102 -4.6%
SF -1.5 +152 +186 -4.8%
KC +1.5 -185 -186 +0.2%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -17.1%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +12.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 10.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00948
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | July 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Freddy Peralta Home: Jacob Misiorowski
ERA: 4.66 ERA: 1.62
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 0.76
K/9: 8.97 K/9: 13.54
BB/9: 3.8 BB/9: 2.19
FIP: 4.24 FIP: 1.87
IP: 104.3 IP: 111.0
xERA: 3.82 xERA: 2.07
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: 0.224
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM MIL Lg Avg
Record 42-58 62-37
R/Game 4.09 5.07 4.52
RA/Game 4.71 3.75 4.52
OPS 0.686 0.733 0.721
wOBA 0.296 0.315 0.311
ERA 4.23 3.45 4.21
FIP 3.87 3.43 4.07
WHIP 1.31 1.16 1.31
K/9 9.27 9.74 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.436 0.635 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.75 3.50 4.30
BP FIP 3.89 3.62 4.11
BP WHIP 1.26 1.27
BP K/9 9.34 9.06
BP Quality* 42.9 48.6 46.7
BP IP 249.7 321.0
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Yoho (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 16 mph (gusts 28 mph)
Precip Chance: 16%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), strong wind in (16 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9899 (Temp: 1.0230 | Wind: 0.9677)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 2.8 - MIL 4.9
Simulated Avg: NYM 2.8 - MIL 4.9
Win Probability: NYM 28.4% - MIL 71.6%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +252 / MIL -252
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.5: 48.8%
Under 7.5: 51.2%
NYM +1.5: 45.4%
MIL -1.5: 54.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 1.1 - MIL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 1.1 - MIL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: NYM 19.6% - MIL 80.4% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +411 / MIL -411
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML +178 +252 -7.6%
MIL ML -218 -252 +3.1%
NYM +1.5 -117 +121 -8.6%
MIL -1.5 -103 -121 +3.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -3.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -1.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | July 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jack Flaherty Home: Jameson Taillon
ERA: 4.48 ERA: 5.19
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 10.71 K/9: 7.85
BB/9: 4.37 BB/9: 3.06
FIP: 3.6 FIP: 6.22
IP: 82.3 IP: 67.7
xERA: 4.34 xERA: 5.52
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.357
Pitcher Edge: DET (Jack Flaherty)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET CHC Lg Avg
Record 46-53 56-43
R/Game 4.22 5.07 4.52
RA/Game 3.91 4.44 4.52
OPS 0.710 0.749 0.721
wOBA 0.307 0.324 0.311
ERA 3.58 4.27 4.21
FIP 3.62 4.62 4.07
WHIP 1.21 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.55 7.86 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.535 0.560 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.98 4.55 4.30
BP FIP 4.02 4.80 4.11
BP WHIP 1.35 1.39
BP K/9 8.53 7.96
BP Quality* 48.2 52.5 46.7
BP IP 348.0 379.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brenan Hanifee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Anderson (32 pitches yesterday)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Drew Pomeranz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9852 (Temp: 1.0178 | Wind: 0.9679)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 5.3 - CHC 5.3
Simulated Avg: DET 5.3 - CHC 5.3
Win Probability: DET 50.3% - CHC 49.7%
Fair Moneyline: DET -101 / CHC +101
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 11.0: 40.5%
Under 11.0: 51.6%
DET -1.5: 36.5%
CHC +1.5: 63.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 3.2 - CHC 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 3.2 - CHC 2.8
F5 Win Prob: DET 55.7% - CHC 44.3% (Tie: 13.8%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -126 / CHC +126
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -103 -101 -0.4%
CHC ML -117 +101 -4.2%
DET -1.5 +146 +174 -4.1%
CHC +1.5 -177 -174 -0.4%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -11.8%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -0.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | July 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Erick Fedde Home: Jacob deGrom
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 3.49
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 6.07 K/9: 10.91
BB/9: 3.54 BB/9: 1.97
FIP: 5.12 FIP: 3.4
IP: 89.0 IP: 100.7
xERA: 4.64 xERA: 3.46
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Jacob deGrom)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS TEX Lg Avg
Record 52-46 50-49
R/Game 4.79 4.16 4.52
RA/Game 4.33 4.47 4.52
OPS 0.729 0.719 0.721
wOBA 0.312 0.312 0.311
ERA 4.04 4.31 4.21
FIP 4.04 4.05 4.07
WHIP 1.31 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.53 8.71 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.546 0.467 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.28 4.71 4.30
BP FIP 4.35 4.28 4.11
BP WHIP 1.33 1.32
BP K/9 8.43 7.84
BP Quality* 47.8 53.1 46.7
BP IP 282.0 279.0
Bullpen Edge: CWS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ben Peoples (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0158 (Temp: 1.0376 | Wind: 0.9790)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 4.8 - TEX 4.9
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.8 - TEX 4.9
Win Probability: CWS 48.6% - TEX 51.4%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +106 / TEX -106
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 7.5: 66.2%
Under 7.5: 33.8%
CWS +1.5: 63.6%
TEX -1.5: 36.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.3 - TEX 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.3 - TEX 2.8
F5 Win Prob: CWS 42.3% - TEX 57.7% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +136 / TEX -136
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +144 +106 +7.6%
TEX ML -175 -106 -12.3%
CWS +1.5 -155 -175 +2.8%
TEX -1.5 +128 +175 -7.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +13.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -18.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00949
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HOU starter (id 669854) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (the model never uses prior-season data).
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | July 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Janson Junk Home: Player 669854
ERA: 4.57 ERA: 0.0
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 0.0
K/9: 6.65 K/9: 0.0
BB/9: 2.35 BB/9: 0.0
FIP: 4.21 FIP: 0.0
IP: 65.0 IP: 0.0
xERA: 3.99 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.309 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Player 669854)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA HOU Lg Avg
Record 52-48 47-54
R/Game 4.47 4.50 4.52
RA/Game 4.28 5.03 4.52
OPS 0.736 0.724 0.721
wOBA 0.317 0.309 0.311
ERA 4.01 4.75 4.21
FIP 3.77 4.64 4.07
WHIP 1.25 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.69 8.88 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.520 0.450 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.34 4.44 4.30
BP FIP 3.62 4.53 4.11
BP WHIP 1.26 1.35
BP K/9 9.45 8.92
BP Quality* 49.8 55.0 46.7
BP IP 290.3 373.3
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kai-Wei Teng (46 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0170 (Temp: 1.0266 | Wind: 0.9907)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 4.5 - HOU 4.8
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.5 - HOU 4.8
Win Probability: MIA 47.3% - HOU 52.7%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +111 / HOU -111
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.5: 54.4%
Under 8.5: 45.6%
MIA +1.5: 62.8%
HOU -1.5: 37.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.3 - HOU 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.3 - HOU 2.6
F5 Win Prob: MIA 45.2% - HOU 54.8% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +121 / HOU -121
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +104 +111 -1.7%
HOU ML -126 -111 -3.1%
MIA +1.5 -197 -169 -3.6%
HOU -1.5 +161 +169 -1.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +2.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -6.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | July 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andrew Alvarez Home: Kyle Freeland
ERA: 4.04 ERA: 7.36
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.57
K/9: 9.73 K/9: 8.08
BB/9: 4.04 BB/9: 1.84
FIP: 2.81 FIP: 4.58
IP: 49.0 IP: 88.0
xERA: 4.34 xERA: 5.59
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.359
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Andrew Alvarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH COL Lg Avg
Record 50-50 40-61
R/Game 5.45 4.79 4.52
RA/Game 5.30 5.68 4.52
OPS 0.764 0.747 0.721
wOBA 0.327 0.321 0.311
ERA 4.82 5.46 4.21
FIP 4.56 4.71 4.07
WHIP 1.40 1.52 1.31
K/9 7.98 7.20 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.513 0.423 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.18 5.08 4.30
BP FIP 5.22 4.36 4.11
BP WHIP 1.63 1.53
BP K/9 8.63 7.64
BP Quality* 61.8 53.6 46.7
BP IP 333.7 365.0
Bullpen Edge: COL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jorbit Vivas (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tanner Gordon (66 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 98°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Hot (98°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0534 (Temp: 1.0386 | Wind: 1.0143)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 8.2 - COL 6.2
Simulated Avg: WSH 8.1 - COL 6.2
Win Probability: WSH 62.4% - COL 37.6%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -166 / COL +166
Avg Total Runs: 14.3
Over 12.0: 59.5%
Under 12.0: 34.2%
WSH -1.5: 51.5%
COL +1.5: 48.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 4.8 - COL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 4.8 - COL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: WSH 72.2% - COL 27.8% (Tie: 10.4%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -259 / COL +259
F5 Avg Total: 7.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML -125 -166 +6.9%
COL ML +104 +166 -11.4%
WSH -1.5 +119 -106 +5.8%
COL +1.5 -143 +106 -10.3%
O 12.0 -110 N/A +7.1%
U 12.0 -110 N/A -18.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 12.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.1%
Fair ML: -147 | Kelly: 3.74%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00950
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | July 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jeffrey Springs Home: Mitch Bratt
ERA: 6.08 ERA: 6.0
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.67
K/9: 7.74 K/9: 4.5
BB/9: 3.41 BB/9: 7.5
FIP: 5.98 FIP: 6.77
IP: 97.7 IP: 6.0
xERA: 4.61 xERA: 6.48
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.382
Pitcher Edge: ATH (Jeffrey Springs)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH ARI Lg Avg
Record 42-57 51-48
R/Game 4.47 4.37 4.52
RA/Game 5.63 4.48 4.52
OPS 0.728 0.695 0.721
wOBA 0.313 0.299 0.311
ERA 5.33 4.21 4.21
FIP 4.80 4.30 4.07
WHIP 1.48 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.66 6.94 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.397 0.489 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.67 3.68 4.30
BP FIP 4.79 3.69 4.11
BP WHIP 1.57 1.18
BP K/9 9.34 7.70
BP Quality* 57.4 53.5 46.7
BP IP 353.7 315.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brady Basso (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +12.0)
TIRED: Drey Jameson (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Philip Abner (46 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Thompson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 99°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 21%
Conditions: Hot (99°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0109 (Temp: 1.0404 | Wind: 0.9717)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 5.0 - ARI 5.8
Simulated Avg: ATH 5.0 - ARI 5.8
Win Probability: ATH 42.6% - ARI 57.4%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +134 / ARI -134
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 9.0: 57.3%
Under 9.0: 34.8%
ATH +1.5: 56.9%
ARI -1.5: 43.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.7 - ARI 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.7 - ARI 3.3
F5 Win Prob: ATH 41.8% - ARI 58.2% (Tie: 13.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +139 / ARI -139
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML +123 +134 -2.2%
ARI ML -149 -134 -2.5%
ATH +1.5 -170 -132 -6.0%
ARI -1.5 +140 +132 +1.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +4.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -17.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | July 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andrew Abbott Home: George Kirby
ERA: 4.11 ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 7.2 K/9: 8.02
BB/9: 4.11 BB/9: 1.96
FIP: 4.85 FIP: 3.27
IP: 105.0 IP: 110.0
xERA: 4.77 xERA: 3.88
xwOBA: 0.335 xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: SEA (George Kirby)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN SEA Lg Avg
Record 45-53 50-50
R/Game 4.22 4.02 4.52
RA/Game 4.83 3.89 4.52
OPS 0.712 0.686 0.721
wOBA 0.307 0.299 0.311
ERA 4.57 3.61 4.21
FIP 4.73 3.39 4.07
WHIP 1.43 1.18 1.31
K/9 8.18 8.76 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.439 0.515 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.79 3.43 4.30
BP FIP 5.02 3.48 4.11
BP WHIP 1.47 1.29
BP K/9 8.38 8.58
BP Quality* 56.7 46.4 46.7
BP IP 366.3 281.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0209 (Temp: 1.0136 | Wind: 1.0072)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 3.6 - SEA 4.5
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.6 - SEA 4.5
Win Probability: CIN 40.8% - SEA 59.2%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +145 / SEA -145
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.5: 52.9%
Under 7.5: 47.1%
CIN +1.5: 58.0%
SEA -1.5: 42.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 1.9 - SEA 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 1.9 - SEA 2.4
F5 Win Prob: CIN 41.2% - SEA 58.8% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +142 / SEA -142
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +119 +145 -4.9%
SEA ML -144 -145 +0.2%
CIN +1.5 -181 -138 -6.4%
SEA -1.5 +149 +138 +1.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +0.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -5.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | July 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Leahy Home: José Soriano
ERA: 3.73 ERA: 3.49
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 7.56 K/9: 9.32
BB/9: 3.32 BB/9: 4.3
FIP: 3.84 FIP: 3.87
IP: 89.3 IP: 111.0
xERA: 5.38 xERA: 4.37
xwOBA: 0.353 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL LAA Lg Avg
Record 51-47 39-61
R/Game 4.53 4.34 4.52
RA/Game 4.49 4.96 4.52
OPS 0.708 0.703 0.721
wOBA 0.306 0.305 0.311
ERA 4.16 4.62 4.21
FIP 4.00 4.17 4.07
WHIP 1.33 1.38 1.31
K/9 7.59 8.96 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.504 0.439 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.16 4.48 4.30
BP FIP 4.01 4.17 4.11
BP WHIP 1.32 1.39
BP K/9 7.83 9.70
BP Quality* 50.3 52.3 46.7
BP IP 353.0 339.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Bachman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Samy Natera Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9861 (Temp: 1.0031 | Wind: 0.9830)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 4.5 - LAA 4.6
Simulated Avg: STL 4.5 - LAA 4.6
Win Probability: STL 48.4% - LAA 51.6%
Fair Moneyline: STL +106 / LAA -106
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 9.0: 44.1%
Under 9.0: 46.9%
STL -1.5: 33.0%
LAA +1.5: 67.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 2.3 - LAA 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.3 - LAA 2.5
F5 Win Prob: STL 46.8% - LAA 53.2% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +114 / LAA -114
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML -105 +106 -2.8%
LAA ML -114 -106 -1.7%
STL -1.5 +152 +203 -6.7%
LAA +1.5 -185 -203 +2.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -8.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -5.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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