2026-07-21
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-21
Games: 15 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | July 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kendry Rojas Home: Parker Messick
ERA: 2.79 ERA: 2.73
WHIP: 1.6 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 10.24 K/9: 8.84
BB/9: 7.45 BB/9: 2.89
FIP: 3.98 FIP: 3.26
IP: 19.3 IP: 112.0
xERA: 3.8 xERA: 3.26
xwOBA: 0.302 xwOBA: 0.281
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN CLE Lg Avg
Record 49-52 53-48
R/Game 4.78 4.01 4.53
RA/Game 5.11 4.04 4.52
OPS 0.735 0.689 0.722
wOBA 0.318 0.299 0.311
ERA 4.75 3.76 4.22
FIP 4.25 3.82 4.08
WHIP 1.39 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.50 9.23 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.497 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.88 3.77 4.30
BP FIP 4.29 3.61 4.11
BP WHIP 1.49 1.32
BP K/9 8.13 10.13
BP Quality* 55.3 49.5 46.7
BP IP 407.3 339.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Woo-Suk Go (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (36 pitches yesterday)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Shawn Armstrong (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Franco Aleman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Will Dion (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 27 mph)
Precip Chance: 25%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), crosswind (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0008 (Temp: 1.0102 | Wind: 0.9907)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 4.0 - CLE 4.1
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.0 - CLE 4.1
Win Probability: MIN 48.1% - CLE 51.9%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +108 / CLE -108
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.0: 43.1%
Under 8.0: 47.4%
MIN +1.5: 65.4%
CLE -1.5: 34.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 1.9 - CLE 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 1.9 - CLE 2.0
F5 Win Prob: MIN 46.8% - CLE 53.2% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +114 / CLE -114
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML +124 +108 +3.5%
CLE ML -150 -108 -8.1%
MIN +1.5 -168 -189 +2.8%
CLE -1.5 +139 +189 -7.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -9.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | July 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Justin Wrobleski Home: Zack Wheeler
ERA: 2.69 ERA: 2.13
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 0.89
K/9: 6.55 K/9: 10.45
BB/9: 1.79 BB/9: 2.13
FIP: 3.28 FIP: 2.88
IP: 100.3 IP: 93.0
xERA: 4.14 xERA: 2.65
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.254
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Zack Wheeler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD PHI Lg Avg
Record 63-38 56-45
R/Game 5.19 4.38 4.53
RA/Game 3.68 4.48 4.52
OPS 0.773 0.707 0.722
wOBA 0.331 0.304 0.311
ERA 3.56 4.24 4.22
FIP 3.74 3.66 4.08
WHIP 1.14 1.32 1.31
K/9 9.07 9.91 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.652 0.490 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.15 4.60 4.30
BP FIP 3.91 3.69 4.11
BP WHIP 1.27 1.40
BP K/9 9.73 10.25
BP Quality* 47.4 51.7 46.7
BP IP 297.0 293.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Landon Knack (30 pitches yesterday)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Chase Shugart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 26 mph)
Precip Chance: 75%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), wind in (12 mph) | Rain likely (75%)
Weather Factor: 0.9810 (Temp: 1.0156 | Wind: 0.9659)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 4.2 - PHI 4.0
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.2 - PHI 4.0
Win Probability: LAD 51.7% - PHI 48.3%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -107 / PHI +107
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 9.0: 35.5%
Under 9.0: 55.5%
LAD +1.5: 68.4%
PHI -1.5: 31.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 1.8 - PHI 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 1.8 - PHI 2.0
F5 Win Prob: LAD 45.5% - PHI 54.5% (Tie: 19.2%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD +120 / PHI -120
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML +109 -107 +3.9%
PHI ML -131 +107 -8.4%
LAD +1.5 -192 -216 +2.6%
PHI -1.5 +157 +216 -7.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -16.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +3.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | July 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bubba Chandler Home: Will Warren
ERA: 4.77 ERA: 4.03
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 8.11 K/9: 8.79
BB/9: 5.25 BB/9: 3.02
FIP: 4.43 FIP: 4.01
IP: 94.3 IP: 98.3
xERA: 4.14 xERA: 4.46
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Will Warren)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT NYY Lg Avg
Record 52-49 56-44
R/Game 5.33 4.75 4.53
RA/Game 4.82 3.87 4.52
OPS 0.768 0.739 0.722
wOBA 0.332 0.316 0.311
ERA 4.30 3.42 4.22
FIP 3.78 3.62 4.08
WHIP 1.32 1.19 1.31
K/9 9.24 8.85 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.545 0.593 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 3.16 4.30
BP FIP 4.22 3.67 4.11
BP WHIP 1.42 1.20
BP K/9 9.24 8.42
BP Quality* 54.2 45.7 46.7
BP IP 275.7 364.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Wilber Dotel (56 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Isaac Mattson (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Angel Chivilli (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 68%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), wind in (10 mph) | Rain likely (68%)
Weather Factor: 0.9823 (Temp: 1.0048 | Wind: 0.9776)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 5.0 - NYY 5.2
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.1 - NYY 5.2
Win Probability: PIT 48.5% - NYY 51.5%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +106 / NYY -106
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.5: 53.4%
Under 9.5: 46.6%
PIT +1.5: 63.1%
NYY -1.5: 36.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 2.9 - NYY 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.8 - NYY 2.7
F5 Win Prob: PIT 51.5% - NYY 48.5% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -106 / NYY +106
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML +130 +106 +5.0%
NYY ML -157 -106 -9.6%
PIT +1.5 -157 -171 +2.1%
NYY -1.5 +130 +171 -6.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +1.1%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -5.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | July 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Drew Rasmussen Home: Kevin Gausman
ERA: 3.26 ERA: 4.33
WHIP: 0.95 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 8.88 K/9: 9.29
BB/9: 1.54 BB/9: 2.56
FIP: 3.21 FIP: 3.63
IP: 99.3 IP: 112.3
xERA: 3.29 xERA: 3.88
xwOBA: 0.282 xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: TB (Drew Rasmussen)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB TOR Lg Avg
Record 57-42 46-54
R/Game 4.46 3.98 4.53
RA/Game 4.26 4.49 4.52
OPS 0.734 0.684 0.722
wOBA 0.315 0.295 0.311
ERA 3.88 4.15 4.22
FIP 4.09 3.92 4.08
WHIP 1.18 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.09 9.02 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.521 0.445 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.16 3.70 4.30
BP FIP 4.23 3.41 4.11
BP WHIP 1.25 1.32
BP K/9 8.22 8.89
BP Quality* 48.9 42.7 46.7
BP IP 346.0 223.7
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 44%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9791 (Temp: 0.9948 | Wind: 0.9842)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 3.9 - TOR 3.5
Simulated Avg: TB 4.0 - TOR 3.5
Win Probability: TB 54.6% - TOR 45.4%
Fair Moneyline: TB -120 / TOR +120
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 7.5: 46.5%
Under 7.5: 53.5%
TB -1.5: 36.6%
TOR +1.5: 63.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 2.2 - TOR 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.2 - TOR 1.7
F5 Win Prob: TB 60.9% - TOR 39.1% (Tie: 19.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -156 / TOR +156
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML -112 -120 +1.8%
TOR ML -107 +120 -6.3%
TB -1.5 +149 +173 -3.6%
TOR +1.5 -181 -173 -1.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -5.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +1.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | July 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Bradish Home: Ranger Suarez
ERA: 3.61 ERA: 3.15
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 8.89 K/9: 9.56
BB/9: 4.19 BB/9: 2.56
FIP: 3.98 FIP: 2.54
IP: 107.3 IP: 91.3
xERA: 3.83 xERA: 3.31
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: 0.283
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL BOS Lg Avg
Record 49-52 51-48
R/Game 4.59 4.23 4.53
RA/Game 4.73 3.77 4.52
OPS 0.719 0.709 0.722
wOBA 0.311 0.306 0.311
ERA 4.21 3.55 4.22
FIP 4.06 3.65 4.08
WHIP 1.35 1.22 1.31
K/9 8.03 8.66 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.553 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.17 3.66 4.30
BP FIP 3.96 3.79 4.11
BP WHIP 1.28 1.29
BP K/9 8.61 8.58
BP Quality* 49.4 47.0 46.7
BP IP 356.3 312.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 53%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0083 (Temp: 1.0009 | Wind: 1.0074)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 3.9 - BOS 4.4
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.0 - BOS 4.4
Win Probability: BAL 44.7% - BOS 55.3%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +124 / BOS -124
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.5: 45.9%
Under 8.5: 54.1%
BAL +1.5: 61.8%
BOS -1.5: 38.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 1.9 - BOS 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 1.9 - BOS 2.3
F5 Win Prob: BAL 42.2% - BOS 57.8% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +137 / BOS -137
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +118 +124 -1.1%
BOS ML -142 -124 -3.4%
BAL +1.5 -185 -162 -3.1%
BOS -1.5 +152 +162 -1.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -6.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +1.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | July 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Walker Buehler Home: Reynaldo López
ERA: 5.36 ERA: 3.5
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 8.19 K/9: 7.88
BB/9: 3.54 BB/9: 3.65
FIP: 4.21 FIP: 4.25
IP: 89.0 IP: 61.7
xERA: 4.52 xERA: 4.52
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.327
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD ATL Lg Avg
Record 49-51 58-41
R/Game 4.07 4.97 4.53
RA/Game 4.40 3.87 4.52
OPS 0.683 0.734 0.722
wOBA 0.295 0.315 0.311
ERA 4.22 3.60 4.22
FIP 4.12 3.96 4.08
WHIP 1.34 1.23 1.31
K/9 8.26 8.53 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.464 0.613 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.71 3.40 4.30
BP FIP 3.57 3.63 4.11
BP WHIP 1.23 1.16
BP K/9 9.69 8.83
BP Quality* 42.4 47.3 46.7
BP IP 298.0 312.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Danny Young (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9838 (Temp: 1.0201 | Wind: 0.9644)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 4.0 - ATL 5.2
Simulated Avg: SD 4.0 - ATL 5.2
Win Probability: SD 38.4% - ATL 61.6%
Fair Moneyline: SD +161 / ATL -161
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.0: 44.1%
Under 9.0: 47.1%
SD +1.5: 54.5%
ATL -1.5: 45.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 2.2 - ATL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.2 - ATL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: SD 37.1% - ATL 62.9% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +169 / ATL -169
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML +122 +161 -6.7%
ATL ML -147 -161 +2.1%
SD +1.5 -168 -120 -8.2%
ATL -1.5 +139 +120 +3.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -8.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -5.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | July 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tyler Mahle Home: Luinder Avila
ERA: 5.31 ERA: 5.08
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 1.62
K/9: 8.42 K/9: 7.94
BB/9: 3.69 BB/9: 5.4
FIP: 4.46 FIP: 4.51
IP: 78.0 IP: 56.7
xERA: 4.22 xERA: 4.87
xwOBA: 0.317 xwOBA: 0.338
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF KC Lg Avg
Record 42-58 41-60
R/Game 4.11 4.26 4.53
RA/Game 4.73 5.23 4.52
OPS 0.726 0.715 0.722
wOBA 0.309 0.308 0.311
ERA 4.40 4.97 4.22
FIP 4.15 4.70 4.08
WHIP 1.35 1.45 1.31
K/9 7.73 7.73 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.436 0.407 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.55 5.65 4.30
BP FIP 4.32 5.30 4.11
BP WHIP 1.45 1.60
BP K/9 7.78 7.59
BP Quality* 54.1 63.4 46.7
BP IP 328.7 375.7
Bullpen Edge: SF (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: JT Brubaker (38 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Beck Way (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), wind out (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0866 (Temp: 1.0266 | Wind: 1.0585)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 5.3 - KC 5.2
Simulated Avg: SF 5.3 - KC 5.2
Win Probability: SF 50.4% - KC 49.6%
Fair Moneyline: SF -102 / KC +102
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 9.5: 55.4%
Under 9.5: 44.6%
SF -1.5: 36.5%
KC +1.5: 63.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 2.8 - KC 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.8 - KC 2.8
F5 Win Prob: SF 49.6% - KC 50.4% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +102 / KC -102
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML -114 -102 -2.9%
KC ML -105 +102 -1.6%
SF -1.5 +144 +174 -4.5%
KC +1.5 -175 -174 -0.2%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +3.0%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -7.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | July 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zac Thornton Home: Brandon Sproat
ERA: 2.6 ERA: 5.16
WHIP: 0.92 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 7.79 K/9: 9.55
BB/9: 2.6 BB/9: 4.28
FIP: 2.98 FIP: 4.78
IP: 17.3 IP: 82.0
xERA: 3.97 xERA: 4.81
xwOBA: 0.308 xwOBA: 0.336
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Zac Thornton)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM MIL Lg Avg
Record 42-59 63-37
R/Game 4.08 5.10 4.53
RA/Game 4.74 3.74 4.52
OPS 0.683 0.736 0.722
wOBA 0.296 0.316 0.311
ERA 4.27 3.44 4.22
FIP 3.90 3.40 4.08
WHIP 1.31 1.16 1.31
K/9 9.26 9.80 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.431 0.638 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.75 3.48 4.30
BP FIP 3.93 3.60 4.11
BP WHIP 1.26 1.27
BP K/9 9.31 9.14
BP Quality* 44.6 45.4 46.7
BP IP 252.3 323.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Xzavion Curry (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Lance McCullers Jr. (50 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Grant Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Yoho (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind out (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0601 (Temp: 0.9946 | Wind: 1.0658)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 4.5 - MIL 4.9
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.5 - MIL 4.9
Win Probability: NYM 46.7% - MIL 53.3%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +114 / MIL -114
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 9.0: 46.7%
Under 9.0: 44.5%
NYM +1.5: 62.3%
MIL -1.5: 37.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.7 - MIL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.7 - MIL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: NYM 52.6% - MIL 47.4% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -111 / MIL +111
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML +118 +114 +0.8%
MIL ML -142 -114 -5.4%
NYM +1.5 -172 -165 -0.9%
MIL -1.5 +142 +165 -3.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -5.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -7.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | July 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Framber Valdez Home: David Peterson
ERA: 4.1 ERA: 6.45
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.64
K/9: 7.27 K/9: 7.65
BB/9: 3.01 BB/9: 4.04
FIP: 3.81 FIP: 4.17
IP: 107.7 IP: 82.3
xERA: 4.22 xERA: 5.35
xwOBA: 0.317 xwOBA: 0.352
Pitcher Edge: DET (Framber Valdez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET CHC Lg Avg
Record 47-53 56-44
R/Game 4.26 5.08 4.53
RA/Game 3.93 4.48 4.52
OPS 0.713 0.750 0.722
wOBA 0.308 0.325 0.311
ERA 3.59 4.29 4.22
FIP 3.66 4.63 4.08
WHIP 1.22 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.55 7.88 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.537 0.557 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.97 4.54 4.30
BP FIP 4.04 4.80 4.11
BP WHIP 1.36 1.39
BP K/9 8.54 7.94
BP Quality* 54.3 55.5 46.7
BP IP 354.0 384.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Kenley Jansen (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Waguespack (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brenan Hanifee (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 25 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind out (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0712 (Temp: 0.9995 | Wind: 1.0717)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 5.6 - CHC 6.0
Simulated Avg: DET 5.6 - CHC 6.0
Win Probability: DET 46.7% - CHC 53.3%
Fair Moneyline: DET +114 / CHC -114
Avg Total Runs: 11.6
Over 8.0: 70.6%
Under 8.0: 22.8%
DET +1.5: 59.9%
CHC -1.5: 40.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 3.2 - CHC 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 3.2 - CHC 3.0
F5 Win Prob: DET 52.0% - CHC 48.0% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -108 / CHC +108
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML +101 +114 -3.1%
CHC ML -122 -114 -1.6%
DET +1.5 -205 -149 -7.3%
CHC -1.5 +168 +149 +2.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +18.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -29.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 18.2%
[HELD FOR REVIEW] high-edge total -> output/TOTALS_REVIEW_QUEUE.json
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | July 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Noah Schultz Home: Kumar Rocker
ERA: 5.6 ERA: 4.4
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 7.98 K/9: 8.0
BB/9: 4.92 BB/9: 3.4
FIP: 4.93 FIP: 4.19
IP: 53.0 IP: 90.0
xERA: 6.05 xERA: 4.74
xwOBA: 0.371 xwOBA: 0.334
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Kumar Rocker)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS TEX Lg Avg
Record 53-46 50-50
R/Game 4.84 4.15 4.53
RA/Game 4.31 4.53 4.52
OPS 0.732 0.719 0.722
wOBA 0.313 0.311 0.311
ERA 4.03 4.37 4.22
FIP 4.04 4.04 4.08
WHIP 1.30 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.59 8.70 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.552 0.460 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.23 4.80 4.30
BP FIP 4.34 4.28 4.11
BP WHIP 1.33 1.33
BP K/9 8.53 7.78
BP Quality* 50.5 59.5 46.7
BP IP 287.0 283.3
Bullpen Edge: CWS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jordan Hicks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sean Newcomb (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: DEPLETED (penalty +10.5)
UNAVAIL: Robby Ahlstrom (3 consecutive days)
UNAVAIL: Ben Peoples (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Jose Corniell (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 5.7 - TEX 5.4
Simulated Avg: CWS 5.8 - TEX 5.4
Win Probability: CWS 52.9% - TEX 47.1%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -112 / TEX +112
Avg Total Runs: 11.2
Over 8.5: 67.8%
Under 8.5: 32.1%
CWS +1.5: 66.1%
TEX -1.5: 33.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 3.0 - TEX 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 3.0 - TEX 3.2
F5 Win Prob: CWS 46.4% - TEX 53.6% (Tie: 13.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +116 / TEX -116
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +109 -112 +5.0%
TEX ML -131 +112 -9.6%
CWS +1.5 -193 -195 +0.2%
TEX -1.5 +158 +195 -4.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +15.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -20.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 15.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00951
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | July 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tyler Phillips Home: Tatsuya Imai
ERA: 3.48 ERA: 6.06
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.5
K/9: 6.72 K/9: 10.9
BB/9: 4.2 BB/9: 5.71
FIP: 4.39 FIP: 4.83
IP: 75.0 IP: 52.0
xERA: 4.87 xERA: 5.11
xwOBA: 0.338 xwOBA: 0.345
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Tyler Phillips)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA HOU Lg Avg
Record 52-49 48-54
R/Game 4.48 4.54 4.53
RA/Game 4.32 5.03 4.52
OPS 0.736 0.726 0.722
wOBA 0.317 0.310 0.311
ERA 4.05 4.75 4.22
FIP 3.81 4.63 4.08
WHIP 1.25 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.70 8.93 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.516 0.453 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.33 4.45 4.30
BP FIP 3.61 4.52 4.11
BP WHIP 1.26 1.35
BP K/9 9.48 9.04
BP Quality* 46.7 55.0 46.7
BP IP 293.3 382.3
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Dax Fulton (45 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0261 (Temp: 1.0290 | Wind: 0.9972)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 5.5 - HOU 4.8
Simulated Avg: MIA 5.5 - HOU 4.8
Win Probability: MIA 55.6% - HOU 44.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -125 / HOU +125
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.0: 53.7%
Under 9.0: 38.0%
MIA +1.5: 69.9%
HOU -1.5: 30.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 3.1 - HOU 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 3.1 - HOU 2.7
F5 Win Prob: MIA 56.2% - HOU 43.8% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -129 / HOU +129
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +104 -125 +6.5%
HOU ML -126 +125 -11.3%
MIA +1.5 -193 -232 +4.0%
HOU -1.5 +158 +232 -8.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +1.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -14.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | July 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Miles Mikolas Home: Michael Lorenzen
ERA: 5.53 ERA: 6.22
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.77
K/9: 4.77 K/9: 6.77
BB/9: 1.91 BB/9: 3.53
FIP: 5.43 FIP: 4.65
IP: 94.3 IP: 97.0
xERA: 5.01 xERA: 5.56
xwOBA: 0.342 xwOBA: 0.358
Pitcher Edge: COL (Michael Lorenzen)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH COL Lg Avg
Record 51-50 40-62
R/Game 5.47 4.77 4.53
RA/Game 5.28 5.70 4.52
OPS 0.767 0.745 0.722
wOBA 0.327 0.320 0.311
ERA 4.80 5.47 4.22
FIP 4.55 4.72 4.08
WHIP 1.40 1.52 1.31
K/9 7.93 7.20 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.516 0.420 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.09 5.11 4.30
BP FIP 5.20 4.37 4.11
BP WHIP 1.61 1.53
BP K/9 8.54 7.65
BP Quality* 61.2 53.7 46.7
BP IP 338.3 368.0
Bullpen Edge: COL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tom Cosgrove (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 93°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 13%
Conditions: Hot (93°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0011 (Temp: 1.0318 | Wind: 0.9702)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 7.5 - COL 7.2
Simulated Avg: WSH 7.5 - COL 7.2
Win Probability: WSH 52.2% - COL 47.8%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -109 / COL +109
Avg Total Runs: 14.7
Over 13.0: 54.6%
Under 13.0: 39.1%
WSH -1.5: 41.0%
COL +1.5: 59.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 4.4 - COL 3.9
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 4.4 - COL 3.9
F5 Win Prob: WSH 55.7% - COL 44.3% (Tie: 11.1%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -126 / COL +126
F5 Avg Total: 8.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML -112 -109 -0.7%
COL ML -107 +109 -3.9%
WSH -1.5 +137 +144 -1.2%
COL +1.5 -166 -144 -3.4%
O 13.0 -110 N/A +2.2%
U 13.0 -110 N/A -13.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | July 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Matthew Liberatore Home: Walbert Ureña
ERA: 5.0 ERA: 2.88
WHIP: 1.48 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 8.46 K/9: 8.63
BB/9: 3.46 BB/9: 5.09
FIP: 4.73 FIP: 3.68
IP: 93.7 IP: 81.3
xERA: 5.28 xERA: 3.31
xwOBA: 0.35 xwOBA: 0.283
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Walbert Ureña)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL LAA Lg Avg
Record 51-48 40-61
R/Game 4.51 4.33 4.53
RA/Game 4.47 4.93 4.52
OPS 0.705 0.703 0.722
wOBA 0.305 0.305 0.311
ERA 4.15 4.60 4.22
FIP 4.00 4.15 4.08
WHIP 1.33 1.38 1.31
K/9 7.59 8.98 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.503 0.441 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.18 4.45 4.30
BP FIP 4.01 4.15 4.11
BP WHIP 1.33 1.38
BP K/9 7.85 9.75
BP Quality* 50.4 50.5 46.7
BP IP 355.3 341.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Samy Natera Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0002 (Temp: 1.0126 | Wind: 0.9878)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.1 - LAA 5.1
Simulated Avg: STL 4.1 - LAA 5.1
Win Probability: STL 40.0% - LAA 60.0%
Fair Moneyline: STL +150 / LAA -150
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.0: 44.0%
Under 9.0: 47.1%
STL -1.5: 25.6%
LAA +1.5: 74.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.0 - LAA 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.0 - LAA 2.9
F5 Win Prob: STL 35.1% - LAA 64.9% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +185 / LAA -185
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML -104 +150 -11.0%
LAA ML -115 -150 +6.5%
STL -1.5 +153 +291 -14.0%
LAA +1.5 -186 -291 +9.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -8.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -5.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] ARI starter (id 684442) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (the model never uses prior-season data).
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | July 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jack Perkins Home: Player 684442
ERA: 6.87 ERA: 0.0
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 0.0
K/9: 11.24 K/9: 0.0
BB/9: 3.59 BB/9: 0.0
FIP: 4.05 FIP: 0.0
IP: 57.7 IP: 0.0
xERA: 4.25 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.318 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Player 684442)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH ARI Lg Avg
Record 43-57 51-49
R/Game 4.48 4.35 4.53
RA/Game 5.59 4.49 4.52
OPS 0.730 0.695 0.722
wOBA 0.314 0.299 0.311
ERA 5.29 4.22 4.22
FIP 4.79 4.31 4.08
WHIP 1.48 1.29 1.31
K/9 8.65 6.94 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.400 0.486 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.61 3.67 4.30
BP FIP 4.75 3.61 4.11
BP WHIP 1.56 1.17
BP K/9 9.36 7.74
BP Quality* 58.4 46.9 46.7
BP IP 357.7 314.0
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Thompson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0189 (Temp: 1.0375 | Wind: 0.9821)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.0 - ARI 5.4
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.0 - ARI 5.4
Win Probability: ATH 37.0% - ARI 63.0%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +171 / ARI -171
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 9.5: 46.2%
Under 9.5: 53.8%
ATH +1.5: 52.4%
ARI -1.5: 47.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 2.0 - ARI 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.0 - ARI 2.9
F5 Win Prob: ATH 36.1% - ARI 63.9% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +177 / ARI -177
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +114 +171 -9.8%
ARI ML -137 -171 +5.2%
ATH +1.5 -182 -110 -12.2%
ARI -1.5 +150 +110 +7.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -6.1%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +1.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | July 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chase Burns Home: Luis Castillo
ERA: 2.54 ERA: 4.93
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 10.34 K/9: 8.32
BB/9: 3.24 BB/9: 2.87
FIP: 3.4 FIP: 3.99
IP: 102.7 IP: 87.7
xERA: 3.17 xERA: 4.56
xwOBA: 0.277 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Chase Burns)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN SEA Lg Avg
Record 45-54 51-50
R/Game 4.18 4.06 4.53
RA/Game 4.86 3.85 4.52
OPS 0.709 0.688 0.722
wOBA 0.306 0.300 0.311
ERA 4.60 3.57 4.22
FIP 4.73 3.38 4.08
WHIP 1.44 1.17 1.31
K/9 8.18 8.77 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.432 0.524 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.94 3.39 4.30
BP FIP 5.05 3.46 4.11
BP WHIP 1.49 1.28
BP K/9 8.36 8.59
BP Quality* 59.0 44.6 46.7
BP IP 368.3 284.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Pierce Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0056 (Temp: 1.0178 | Wind: 0.9880)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 3.9 - SEA 3.7
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.9 - SEA 3.7
Win Probability: CIN 51.6% - SEA 48.4%
Fair Moneyline: CIN -107 / SEA +107
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.5: 48.5%
Under 7.5: 51.5%
CIN -1.5: 33.9%
SEA +1.5: 66.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 2.3 - SEA 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.3 - SEA 1.6
F5 Win Prob: CIN 63.8% - SEA 36.2% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN -176 / SEA +176
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +102 -107 +2.1%
SEA ML -123 +107 -6.7%
CIN -1.5 +172 +195 -2.9%
SEA +1.5 -211 -195 -1.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -3.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -0.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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