2026-07-22
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-22
Games: 17 | Plays: 4
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | July 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Mitch Keller Home: Gerrit Cole
ERA: 5.14 ERA: 3.93
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 6.71 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 3.05 BB/9: 1.96
FIP: 4.26 FIP: 3.88
IP: 103.3 IP: 55.0
xERA: 5.38 xERA: 3.56
xwOBA: 0.353 xwOBA: 0.293
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Gerrit Cole)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT NYY Lg Avg
Record 52-49 56-44
R/Game 5.33 4.75 4.53
RA/Game 4.82 3.87 4.52
OPS 0.768 0.739 0.722
wOBA 0.332 0.316 0.311
ERA 4.30 3.42 4.22
FIP 3.78 3.62 4.08
WHIP 1.32 1.19 1.31
K/9 9.24 8.85 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.545 0.593 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 3.16 4.29
BP FIP 4.22 3.67 4.11
BP WHIP 1.42 1.20
BP K/9 9.24 8.42
BP Quality* 48.2 45.7 46.7
BP IP 275.7 364.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Angel Chivilli (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Endy Rodríguez, Spencer Horwitz, Oneil Cruz
Endy Rodríguez Catcher OPS: 0.858 (100 AB)
Spencer Horwitz First Base OPS: 0.841 (246 AB)
Oneil Cruz Outfielder OPS: 0.822 (250 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.6% of full strength
NYY (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Max Schuemann, Amed Rosario, Giancarlo Stanton
Aaron Judge Outfielder OPS: 0.908 (214 AB)
Paul Goldschmidt First Base OPS: 0.804 (251 AB)
Max Schuemann Outfielder OPS: 0.801 (57 AB)
Amed Rosario Third Base OPS: 0.737 (152 AB)
Giancarlo Stanton Designated Hitter OPS: 0.724 (90 AB)
Run Adjustment: 86.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9962 (Temp: 1.0157 | Wind: 0.9807)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 4.4 - NYY 4.6
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.4 - NYY 4.6
Win Probability: PIT 47.7% - NYY 52.3%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +109 / NYY -109
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 9.0: 42.3%
Under 9.0: 48.7%
PIT +1.5: 63.8%
NYY -1.5: 36.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 2.4 - NYY 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.4 - NYY 2.6
F5 Win Prob: PIT 45.5% - NYY 54.5% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +120 / NYY -120
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML +139 +109 +5.9%
NYY ML -168 -109 -10.4%
PIT +1.5 -149 -176 +3.9%
NYY -1.5 +123 +176 -8.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -10.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -3.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees (Game 2)
Regular Season | July 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bubba Chandler Home: Max Fried
ERA: 4.77 ERA: 3.21
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 8.11 K/9: 7.3
BB/9: 5.25 BB/9: 2.77
FIP: 4.43 FIP: 2.61
IP: 94.3 IP: 61.7
xERA: 4.14 xERA: 2.63
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.253
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Max Fried)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT NYY Lg Avg
Record 52-49 56-44
R/Game 5.33 4.75 4.53
RA/Game 4.82 3.87 4.52
OPS 0.768 0.739 0.722
wOBA 0.332 0.316 0.311
ERA 4.30 3.42 4.22
FIP 3.78 3.62 4.08
WHIP 1.32 1.19 1.31
K/9 9.24 8.85 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.545 0.593 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 3.16 4.29
BP FIP 4.22 3.67 4.11
BP WHIP 1.42 1.20
BP K/9 9.24 8.42
BP Quality* 48.2 51.7 46.7
BP IP 275.7 364.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Angel Chivilli (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Endy Rodríguez, Spencer Horwitz, Oneil Cruz
Endy Rodríguez Catcher OPS: 0.858 (100 AB)
Spencer Horwitz First Base OPS: 0.841 (246 AB)
Oneil Cruz Outfielder OPS: 0.822 (250 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.6% of full strength
NYY (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Max Schuemann, Amed Rosario, Giancarlo Stanton
Aaron Judge Outfielder OPS: 0.908 (214 AB)
Paul Goldschmidt First Base OPS: 0.804 (251 AB)
Max Schuemann Outfielder OPS: 0.801 (57 AB)
Amed Rosario Third Base OPS: 0.737 (152 AB)
Giancarlo Stanton Designated Hitter OPS: 0.724 (90 AB)
Run Adjustment: 86.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9962 (Temp: 1.0157 | Wind: 0.9807)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 4.0 - NYY 4.3
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.0 - NYY 4.3
Win Probability: PIT 46.1% - NYY 53.9%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +117 / NYY -117
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 9.0: 35.9%
Under 9.0: 55.3%
PIT +1.5: 63.3%
NYY -1.5: 36.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 1.7 - NYY 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 1.7 - NYY 2.4
F5 Win Prob: PIT 37.4% - NYY 62.6% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +168 / NYY -168
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML +139 +117 +4.2%
NYY ML -168 -117 -8.8%
PIT +1.5 -149 -173 +3.5%
NYY -1.5 +123 +173 -8.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -16.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +2.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | July 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dean Kremer Home: Jake Bennett
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 2.35
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 0.88
K/9: 10.04 K/9: 6.37
BB/9: 2.42 BB/9: 1.51
FIP: 6.18 FIP: 2.91
IP: 26.0 IP: 53.7
xERA: 4.91 xERA: 2.98
xwOBA: 0.339 xwOBA: 0.269
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Jake Bennett)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL BOS Lg Avg
Record 49-52 51-48
R/Game 4.59 4.23 4.53
RA/Game 4.73 3.77 4.52
OPS 0.719 0.709 0.722
wOBA 0.311 0.306 0.311
ERA 4.21 3.55 4.22
FIP 4.06 3.65 4.08
WHIP 1.35 1.22 1.31
K/9 8.03 8.66 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.553 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.17 3.66 4.29
BP FIP 3.96 3.78 4.11
BP WHIP 1.28 1.29
BP K/9 8.61 8.63
BP Quality* 44.9 42.4 46.7
BP IP 356.3 304.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Andruw Monasterio, Anthony Seigler, Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Andruw Monasterio Shortstop OPS: 0.731 (163 AB)
Anthony Seigler Second Base OPS: 0.706 (90 AB)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa Second Base OPS: 0.705 (119 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9875 (Temp: 1.0018 | Wind: 0.9857)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 3.6 - BOS 4.2
Simulated Avg: BAL 3.6 - BOS 4.2
Win Probability: BAL 43.1% - BOS 56.9%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +132 / BOS -132
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 9.0: 30.8%
Under 9.0: 60.2%
BAL +1.5: 61.5%
BOS -1.5: 38.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 1.7 - BOS 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 1.8 - BOS 2.3
F5 Win Prob: BAL 38.8% - BOS 61.3% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +158 / BOS -158
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +114 +132 -3.6%
BOS ML -137 -132 -0.9%
BAL +1.5 -184 -160 -3.3%
BOS -1.5 +152 +160 -1.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -21.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +7.8%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.2% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.8%
Fair ML: -151 | Kelly: 4.12%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00952
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (Game 2)
Regular Season | July 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Bradish Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL BOS Lg Avg
Record 49-52 51-48
R/Game 4.59 4.23 4.53
RA/Game 4.73 3.77 4.52
OPS 0.719 0.709 0.722
wOBA 0.311 0.306 0.311
ERA 4.21 3.55 4.22
FIP 4.06 3.65 4.08
WHIP 1.35 1.22 1.31
K/9 8.03 8.66 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.553 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.17 3.66 4.29
BP FIP 3.96 3.78 4.11
BP WHIP 1.28 1.29
BP K/9 8.61 8.63
BP Quality* 44.9 42.4 46.7
BP IP 356.3 304.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Andruw Monasterio, Anthony Seigler, Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Andruw Monasterio Shortstop OPS: 0.731 (163 AB)
Anthony Seigler Second Base OPS: 0.706 (90 AB)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa Second Base OPS: 0.705 (119 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9875 (Temp: 1.0018 | Wind: 0.9857)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.5 - BOS 4.0
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.5 - BOS 4.0
Win Probability: BAL 55.1% - BOS 44.9%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -123 / BOS +123
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 9.0: 37.5%
Under 9.0: 53.6%
BAL +1.5: 71.3%
BOS -1.5: 28.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.6 - BOS 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.6 - BOS 2.1
F5 Win Prob: BAL 58.5% - BOS 41.5% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -141 / BOS +141
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +114 -123 +8.4%
BOS ML -137 +123 -13.0%
BAL +1.5 -184 -249 +6.6%
BOS -1.5 +152 +249 -11.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -14.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +1.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | July 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Landen Roupp Home: Seth Lugo
ERA: 3.98 ERA: 4.39
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 9.17 K/9: 7.24
BB/9: 3.89 BB/9: 2.93
FIP: 3.23 FIP: 4.23
IP: 104.0 IP: 110.7
xERA: 3.41 xERA: 5.53
xwOBA: 0.287 xwOBA: 0.357
Pitcher Edge: SF (Landen Roupp)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF KC Lg Avg
Record 42-59 42-60
R/Game 4.09 4.25 4.53
RA/Game 4.71 5.20 4.52
OPS 0.724 0.715 0.722
wOBA 0.308 0.308 0.311
ERA 4.39 4.94 4.22
FIP 4.15 4.67 4.08
WHIP 1.35 1.45 1.31
K/9 7.73 7.75 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.435 0.409 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.50 5.61 4.29
BP FIP 4.30 5.28 4.11
BP WHIP 1.44 1.59
BP K/9 7.79 7.61
BP Quality* 53.8 61.6 46.7
BP IP 331.7 378.3
Bullpen Edge: SF (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Alex Lange (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Strahm (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Tyler Tolbert, Bobby Witt Jr., Jac Caglianone, Nick Loftin, Maikel Garcia
Tyler Tolbert Unknown OPS: 0.807 (61 AB)
Bobby Witt Jr. Shortstop OPS: 0.800 (369 AB)
Jac Caglianone Outfielder OPS: 0.779 (337 AB)
Nick Loftin Third Base OPS: 0.723 (193 AB)
Maikel Garcia Third Base OPS: 0.693 (268 AB)
Run Adjustment: 88.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0687 (Temp: 1.0209 | Wind: 1.0469)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 5.1 - KC 3.9
Simulated Avg: SF 5.1 - KC 3.9
Win Probability: SF 61.5% - KC 38.5%
Fair Moneyline: SF -160 / KC +160
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.5: 51.1%
Under 8.5: 48.9%
SF -1.5: 45.8%
KC +1.5: 54.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 2.7 - KC 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.7 - KC 1.8
F5 Win Prob: SF 64.5% - KC 35.5% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SF -182 / KC +182
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML -126 -160 +5.8%
KC ML +104 +160 -10.5%
SF -1.5 +134 +118 +3.0%
KC +1.5 -162 -118 -7.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -1.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | July 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Christian Scott Home: Logan Henderson
ERA: 2.87 ERA: 2.97
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 0.93
K/9: 10.86 K/9: 10.26
BB/9: 3.92 BB/9: 1.89
FIP: 3.52 FIP: 2.62
IP: 59.7 IP: 33.3
xERA: 4.14 xERA: 2.91
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.266
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Logan Henderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM MIL Lg Avg
Record 43-59 63-38
R/Game 4.08 5.05 4.53
RA/Game 4.70 3.74 4.52
OPS 0.686 0.733 0.722
wOBA 0.297 0.315 0.311
ERA 4.23 3.44 4.22
FIP 3.89 3.43 4.08
WHIP 1.30 1.16 1.31
K/9 9.20 9.77 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.436 0.634 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.70 3.47 4.29
BP FIP 3.91 3.63 4.11
BP WHIP 1.25 1.28
BP K/9 9.23 9.08
BP Quality* 42.8 45.6 46.7
BP IP 255.3 327.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryse Wilson (65 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Grant Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0180 (Temp: 1.0013 | Wind: 1.0166)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 3.2 - MIL 4.5
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.2 - MIL 4.5
Win Probability: NYM 35.5% - MIL 64.5%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +181 / MIL -181
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.5: 49.5%
Under 7.5: 50.5%
NYM +1.5: 53.4%
MIL -1.5: 46.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 1.5 - MIL 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 1.5 - MIL 2.4
F5 Win Prob: NYM 32.6% - MIL 67.4% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +207 / MIL -207
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +119 +181 -10.1%
MIL ML -143 -181 +5.6%
NYM +1.5 -181 -115 -11.0%
MIL -1.5 +149 +115 +6.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -2.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -1.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | July 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cade Cavalli Home: Gabriel Hughes
ERA: 3.78 ERA: 3.14
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 10.23 K/9: 8.79
BB/9: 2.75 BB/9: 3.14
FIP: 2.86 FIP: 2.19
IP: 104.7 IP: 14.3
xERA: 4.14 xERA: 2.74
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.258
Pitcher Edge: COL (Gabriel Hughes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH COL Lg Avg
Record 51-51 41-62
R/Game 5.48 4.81 4.53
RA/Game 5.30 5.71 4.52
OPS 0.768 0.748 0.722
wOBA 0.328 0.321 0.311
ERA 4.84 5.49 4.22
FIP 4.56 4.72 4.08
WHIP 1.40 1.51 1.31
K/9 7.92 7.23 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.515 0.422 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.07 5.05 4.29
BP FIP 5.21 4.33 4.11
BP WHIP 1.61 1.51
BP K/9 8.55 7.66
BP Quality* 65.7 56.2 46.7
BP IP 341.0 372.3
Bullpen Edge: COL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Miles Mikolas (66 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Matt Krook (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tom Cosgrove (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jordan Romano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Victor Vodnik (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 95°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Hot (95°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0608 (Temp: 1.0340 | Wind: 1.0259)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 7.4 - COL 6.4
Simulated Avg: WSH 7.4 - COL 6.4
Win Probability: WSH 57.2% - COL 42.8%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -133 / COL +133
Avg Total Runs: 13.8
Over 11.5: 62.1%
Under 11.5: 37.9%
WSH -1.5: 45.5%
COL +1.5: 54.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 4.0 - COL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 4.0 - COL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: WSH 65.3% - COL 34.7% (Tie: 12.2%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -189 / COL +189
F5 Avg Total: 6.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML -144 -133 -1.9%
COL ML +119 +133 -2.8%
WSH -1.5 +104 +120 -3.5%
COL +1.5 -126 -120 -1.3%
O 11.5 -110 N/A +9.7%
U 11.5 -110 N/A -14.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 11.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 62.1% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.7%
Fair ML: -164 | Kelly: 5.11%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00953
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | July 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gage Jump Home: Merrill Kelly
ERA: 3.78 ERA: 5.2
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.49
K/9: 9.63 K/9: 5.66
BB/9: 2.92 BB/9: 3.65
FIP: 2.93 FIP: 5.83
IP: 52.3 IP: 98.7
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 7.55
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.406
Pitcher Edge: ATH (Gage Jump)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH ARI Lg Avg
Record 43-58 52-49
R/Game 4.49 4.37 4.53
RA/Game 5.59 4.50 4.52
OPS 0.731 0.694 0.722
wOBA 0.314 0.300 0.311
ERA 5.29 4.21 4.22
FIP 4.79 4.31 4.08
WHIP 1.48 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.64 6.95 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.400 0.487 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.59 3.67 4.29
BP FIP 4.76 3.64 4.11
BP WHIP 1.57 1.17
BP K/9 9.35 7.75
BP Quality* 67.5 48.6 46.7
BP IP 362.0 324.0
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: DEPLETED (penalty +12.0)
UNAVAIL: Luis Medina (B2B, 36 pitches)
UNAVAIL: Hogan Harris (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Geoff Hartlieb (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brady Basso (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Kevin Ginkel (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Ryan Thompson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 5.8 - ARI 4.8
Simulated Avg: ATH 5.8 - ARI 4.8
Win Probability: ATH 58.7% - ARI 41.3%
Fair Moneyline: ATH -142 / ARI +142
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 9.0: 56.0%
Under 9.0: 36.0%
ATH +1.5: 72.3%
ARI -1.5: 27.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 3.7 - ARI 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 3.7 - ARI 2.0
F5 Win Prob: ATH 72.7% - ARI 27.3% (Tie: 13.1%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH -267 / ARI +267
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML +109 -142 +10.9%
ARI ML -131 +142 -15.4%
ATH +1.5 -191 -261 +6.6%
ARI -1.5 +157 +261 -11.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +3.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -16.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Athletics (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +109 | Edge: 10.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00954
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | July 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brady Singer Home: Emerson Hancock
ERA: 4.56 ERA: 3.17
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 7.63 K/9: 8.52
BB/9: 2.89 BB/9: 2.27
FIP: 5.19 FIP: 3.53
IP: 96.7 IP: 99.3
xERA: 5.21 xERA: 4.34
xwOBA: 0.348 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Emerson Hancock)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN SEA Lg Avg
Record 46-54 51-51
R/Game 4.18 4.04 4.53
RA/Game 4.83 3.85 4.52
OPS 0.708 0.688 0.722
wOBA 0.306 0.300 0.311
ERA 4.58 3.58 4.22
FIP 4.74 3.42 4.08
WHIP 1.44 1.17 1.31
K/9 8.19 8.72 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.434 0.522 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.93 3.40 4.29
BP FIP 5.11 3.51 4.11
BP WHIP 1.49 1.28
BP K/9 8.34 8.56
BP Quality* 60.8 41.9 46.7
BP IP 372.3 286.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Michael Rucker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0446 (Temp: 1.0207 | Wind: 1.0234)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 3.6 - SEA 5.0
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.6 - SEA 5.0
Win Probability: CIN 35.3% - SEA 64.7%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +183 / SEA -183
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.0: 48.1%
Under 8.0: 42.6%
CIN +1.5: 52.2%
SEA -1.5: 47.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.0 - SEA 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.0 - SEA 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CIN 38.9% - SEA 61.1% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +157 / SEA -157
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +130 +183 -8.2%
SEA ML -157 -183 +3.6%
CIN +1.5 -163 -109 -9.7%
SEA -1.5 +135 +109 +5.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -4.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -9.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | July 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Hunter Dobbins Home: Reid Detmers
ERA: 4.03 ERA: 4.16
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 9.27 K/9: 10.2
BB/9: 4.03 BB/9: 2.75
FIP: 4.13 FIP: 3.11
IP: 22.3 IP: 114.7
xERA: 5.14 xERA: 3.26
xwOBA: 0.346 xwOBA: 0.281
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Reid Detmers)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL LAA Lg Avg
Record 51-49 41-61
R/Game 4.47 4.33 4.53
RA/Game 4.48 4.89 4.52
OPS 0.703 0.704 0.722
wOBA 0.304 0.305 0.311
ERA 4.16 4.56 4.22
FIP 4.00 4.11 4.08
WHIP 1.33 1.37 1.31
K/9 7.61 9.00 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.499 0.445 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.15 4.41 4.29
BP FIP 4.01 4.11 4.11
BP WHIP 1.33 1.37
BP K/9 7.84 9.82
BP Quality* 50.3 51.6 46.7
BP IP 358.0 344.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Scott Blewett (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Samy Natera Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0075 (Temp: 1.0230 | Wind: 0.9849)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.2 - LAA 4.6
Simulated Avg: STL 4.2 - LAA 4.6
Win Probability: STL 45.6% - LAA 54.4%
Fair Moneyline: STL +119 / LAA -119
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.5: 49.1%
Under 8.5: 50.9%
STL +1.5: 62.1%
LAA -1.5: 37.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.0 - LAA 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.0 - LAA 2.4
F5 Win Prob: STL 43.5% - LAA 56.5% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +130 / LAA -130
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +110 +119 -2.0%
LAA ML -132 -119 -2.5%
STL +1.5 -191 -164 -3.5%
LAA -1.5 +157 +164 -1.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -3.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -1.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | July 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bailey Ober Home: Slade Cecconi
ERA: 4.32 ERA: 4.55
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 6.78 K/9: 7.0
BB/9: 2.45 BB/9: 2.82
FIP: 4.61 FIP: 4.19
IP: 77.0 IP: 99.0
xERA: 4.28 xERA: 4.59
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Slade Cecconi)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN CLE Lg Avg
Record 49-53 54-48
R/Game 4.75 4.02 4.53
RA/Game 5.11 4.02 4.52
OPS 0.733 0.690 0.722
wOBA 0.317 0.299 0.311
ERA 4.75 3.73 4.22
FIP 4.25 3.81 4.08
WHIP 1.40 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.46 9.23 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.500 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.94 3.73 4.29
BP FIP 4.29 3.59 4.11
BP WHIP 1.48 1.32
BP K/9 7.97 10.11
BP Quality* 55.4 46.3 46.7
BP IP 398.7 342.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mike Paredes (49 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Woo-Suk Go (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Shawn Armstrong (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0189 (Temp: 0.9966 | Wind: 1.0224)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 4.7 - CLE 4.5
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.7 - CLE 4.5
Win Probability: MIN 52.2% - CLE 47.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -109 / CLE +109
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.0: 53.2%
Under 8.0: 37.8%
MIN +1.5: 67.8%
CLE -1.5: 32.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.7 - CLE 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.7 - CLE 2.3
F5 Win Prob: MIN 55.9% - CLE 44.1% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -127 / CLE +127
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +105 -109 +3.4%
CLE ML -126 +109 -7.9%
MIN +1.5 -199 -211 +1.3%
CLE -1.5 +163 +211 -5.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +0.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -14.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | July 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Eric Lauer Home: Aaron Nola
ERA: 4.81 ERA: 5.68
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 5.52 K/9: 9.44
BB/9: 3.17 BB/9: 3.06
FIP: 5.98 FIP: 4.93
IP: 76.7 IP: 103.0
xERA: 4.97 xERA: 4.2
xwOBA: 0.341 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Aaron Nola)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD PHI Lg Avg
Record 64-38 56-46
R/Game 5.16 4.34 4.53
RA/Game 3.66 4.45 4.52
OPS 0.771 0.705 0.722
wOBA 0.330 0.303 0.311
ERA 3.53 4.22 4.22
FIP 3.71 3.65 4.08
WHIP 1.14 1.31 1.31
K/9 9.09 9.92 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.652 0.489 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.11 4.57 4.29
BP FIP 3.88 3.67 4.11
BP WHIP 1.27 1.40
BP K/9 9.76 10.24
BP Quality* 47.1 50.0 46.7
BP IP 299.7 295.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Evan Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0047 (Temp: 1.0086 | Wind: 0.9962)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 5.8 - PHI 5.3
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.9 - PHI 5.3
Win Probability: LAD 54.5% - PHI 45.5%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -120 / PHI +120
Avg Total Runs: 11.2
Over 9.5: 60.2%
Under 9.5: 39.8%
LAD -1.5: 40.9%
PHI +1.5: 59.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 3.4 - PHI 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.4 - PHI 3.2
F5 Win Prob: LAD 52.5% - PHI 47.5% (Tie: 13.0%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -111 / PHI +111
F5 Avg Total: 6.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -120 -120 -0.0%
PHI ML +100 +120 -4.5%
LAD -1.5 +129 +144 -2.7%
PHI +1.5 -156 -144 -1.9%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +7.8%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -12.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.2% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.8%
Fair ML: -151 | Kelly: 4.11%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00955
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | July 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Griffin Jax Home: Braydon Fisher
ERA: 4.08 ERA: 3.65
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 9.24 K/9: 9.12
BB/9: 3.12 BB/9: 4.01
FIP: 4.34 FIP: 3.99
IP: 75.0 IP: 49.3
xERA: 5.31 xERA: 3.75
xwOBA: 0.351 xwOBA: 0.3
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Braydon Fisher)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB TOR Lg Avg
Record 58-42 46-55
R/Game 4.54 3.96 4.53
RA/Game 4.24 4.56 4.52
OPS 0.739 0.683 0.722
wOBA 0.317 0.295 0.311
ERA 3.86 4.21 4.22
FIP 4.07 3.94 4.08
WHIP 1.18 1.32 1.31
K/9 8.07 9.00 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.531 0.435 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.11 3.78 4.29
BP FIP 4.21 3.45 4.11
BP WHIP 1.24 1.33
BP K/9 8.15 8.91
BP Quality* 47.0 47.7 46.7
BP IP 350.0 226.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Patrick Corbin (48 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Lazaro Estrada (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9893 (Temp: 0.9881 | Wind: 1.0012)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.2 - TOR 4.2
Simulated Avg: TB 4.2 - TOR 4.2
Win Probability: TB 50.1% - TOR 49.9%
Fair Moneyline: TB -100 / TOR +100
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.0: 46.5%
Under 8.0: 43.9%
TB -1.5: 33.6%
TOR +1.5: 66.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.2 - TOR 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.2 - TOR 2.4
F5 Win Prob: TB 47.3% - TOR 52.7% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +111 / TOR -111
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -107 -100 -1.6%
TOR ML -112 +100 -2.9%
TB -1.5 +157 +198 -5.4%
TOR +1.5 -191 -198 +0.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | July 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael King Home: Martín Pérez
ERA: 3.34 ERA: 3.54
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 7.62 K/9: 6.86
BB/9: 3.57 BB/9: 3.54
FIP: 3.86 FIP: 4.35
IP: 113.3 IP: 81.3
xERA: 4.62 xERA: 4.62
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: SD (Michael King)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD ATL Lg Avg
Record 50-51 58-42
R/Game 4.11 4.95 4.53
RA/Game 4.39 3.91 4.52
OPS 0.688 0.732 0.722
wOBA 0.297 0.315 0.311
ERA 4.21 3.64 4.22
FIP 4.11 4.01 4.08
WHIP 1.34 1.23 1.31
K/9 8.26 8.56 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.606 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.71 3.39 4.29
BP FIP 3.57 3.62 4.11
BP WHIP 1.23 1.16
BP K/9 9.73 8.83
BP Quality* 45.5 41.2 46.7
BP IP 300.7 313.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: JR Ritchie (68 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 13%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9950 (Temp: 1.0201 | Wind: 0.9754)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.9 - ATL 4.9
Simulated Avg: SD 3.9 - ATL 4.9
Win Probability: SD 40.0% - ATL 60.0%
Fair Moneyline: SD +150 / ATL -150
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 49.8%
Under 8.5: 50.2%
SD -1.5: 25.2%
ATL +1.5: 74.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.3 - ATL 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.3 - ATL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: SD 44.0% - ATL 56.0% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +127 / ATL -127
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML -103 +150 -10.8%
ATL ML -117 -150 +6.1%
SD -1.5 +155 +297 -14.0%
ATL +1.5 -188 -297 +9.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | July 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Anthony Kay Home: Tyler Alexander
ERA: 4.24 ERA: 2.79
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 7.33 K/9: 8.14
BB/9: 3.66 BB/9: 2.36
FIP: 4.5 FIP: 2.7
IP: 93.3 IP: 42.0
xERA: 5.35 xERA: 3.22
xwOBA: 0.352 xwOBA: 0.279
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Tyler Alexander)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS TEX Lg Avg
Record 53-47 51-50
R/Game 4.79 4.21 4.53
RA/Game 4.37 4.49 4.52
OPS 0.729 0.724 0.722
wOBA 0.312 0.313 0.311
ERA 4.10 4.33 4.22
FIP 4.05 4.03 4.08
WHIP 1.31 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.55 8.69 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.542 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.32 4.75 4.29
BP FIP 4.36 4.28 4.11
BP WHIP 1.34 1.33
BP K/9 8.46 7.76
BP Quality* 51.0 54.9 46.7
BP IP 291.3 286.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Schweitzer (61 pitches yesterday)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Marco Gonzales (49 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ben Peoples (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 4.4 - TEX 5.0
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.4 - TEX 5.1
Win Probability: CWS 43.9% - TEX 56.1%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +128 / TEX -128
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.5: 55.6%
Under 8.5: 44.4%
CWS -1.5: 29.3%
TEX +1.5: 70.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 1.9 - TEX 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 1.9 - TEX 2.8
F5 Win Prob: CWS 35.8% - TEX 64.2% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +179 / TEX -179
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML -110 +128 -8.5%
TEX ML -110 -128 +3.7%
CWS -1.5 +151 +241 -10.5%
TEX +1.5 -183 -241 +6.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +3.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | July 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Keider Montero Home: Colin Rea
ERA: 3.22 ERA: 4.74
WHIP: 0.98 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 6.26 K/9: 6.79
BB/9: 1.97 BB/9: 3.31
FIP: 3.53 FIP: 4.63
IP: 100.7 IP: 100.7
xERA: 3.49 xERA: 5.46
xwOBA: 0.29 xwOBA: 0.355
Pitcher Edge: DET (Keider Montero)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET CHC Lg Avg
Record 47-54 57-44
R/Game 4.24 5.14 4.53
RA/Game 4.00 4.46 4.52
OPS 0.711 0.754 0.722
wOBA 0.308 0.326 0.311
ERA 3.67 4.26 4.22
FIP 3.68 4.63 4.08
WHIP 1.23 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.57 7.87 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.526 0.565 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.01 4.54 4.29
BP FIP 4.08 4.80 4.11
BP WHIP 1.37 1.39
BP K/9 8.57 7.94
BP Quality* 51.7 52.5 46.7
BP IP 361.3 384.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Brenan Hanifee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ty Madden (75 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kenley Jansen (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Aaron Civale (47 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0190 (Temp: 0.9954 | Wind: 1.0236)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 5.1 - CHC 5.2
Simulated Avg: DET 5.1 - CHC 5.2
Win Probability: DET 48.5% - CHC 51.5%
Fair Moneyline: DET +106 / CHC -106
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 8.0: 61.7%
Under 8.0: 29.9%
DET +1.5: 63.1%
CHC -1.5: 36.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 2.9 - CHC 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.9 - CHC 2.5
F5 Win Prob: DET 56.2% - CHC 43.8% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -128 / CHC +128
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML +104 +106 -0.6%
CHC ML -125 -106 -4.0%
DET +1.5 -208 -171 -4.4%
CHC -1.5 +170 +171 -0.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +9.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -22.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.7% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.3%
Fair ML: -161 | Kelly: 4.89%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00956
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | July 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sandy Alcantara Home: Peter Lambert
ERA: 3.89 ERA: 3.03
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 7.05 K/9: 8.9
BB/9: 2.44 BB/9: 3.52
FIP: 3.68 FIP: 3.85
IP: 136.7 IP: 92.0
xERA: 3.7 xERA: 3.29
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.282
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA HOU Lg Avg
Record 52-50 49-54
R/Game 4.46 4.54 4.53
RA/Game 4.32 5.01 4.52
OPS 0.735 0.727 0.722
wOBA 0.317 0.310 0.311
ERA 4.04 4.74 4.22
FIP 3.83 4.61 4.08
WHIP 1.25 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.67 8.97 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.514 0.455 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.36 4.46 4.29
BP FIP 3.65 4.51 4.11
BP WHIP 1.26 1.35
BP K/9 9.46 9.09
BP Quality* 44.0 50.4 46.7
BP IP 295.0 385.3
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 95°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 25%
Conditions: Hot (95°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0215 (Temp: 1.0339 | Wind: 0.9880)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 4.1 - HOU 4.3
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.1 - HOU 4.3
Win Probability: MIA 48.0% - HOU 52.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +108 / HOU -108
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.0: 46.4%
Under 8.0: 43.9%
MIA -1.5: 31.8%
HOU +1.5: 68.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.0 - HOU 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.0 - HOU 2.3
F5 Win Prob: MIA 45.3% - HOU 54.7% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +121 / HOU -121
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML -101 +108 -2.2%
HOU ML -120 -108 -2.5%
MIA -1.5 +163 +215 -6.3%
HOU +1.5 -199 -215 +1.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -6.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================