2026-07-23
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-23
Games: 5 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | July 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Hart Home: Chris Sale
ERA: 5.66 ERA: 2.06
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 7.71 K/9: 10.54
BB/9: 3.09 BB/9: 2.14
FIP: 3.9 FIP: 2.46
IP: 35.0 IP: 105.0
xERA: 3.75 xERA: 3.31
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.283
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Chris Sale)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD ATL Lg Avg
Record 50-52 59-42
R/Game 4.13 4.97 4.52
RA/Game 4.41 3.93 4.52
OPS 0.690 0.734 0.722
wOBA 0.298 0.315 0.311
ERA 4.24 3.67 4.21
FIP 4.10 4.03 4.07
WHIP 1.34 1.24 1.31
K/9 8.29 8.57 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.606 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.70 3.51 4.29
BP FIP 3.55 3.67 4.11
BP WHIP 1.23 1.17
BP K/9 9.76 8.89
BP Quality* 45.3 43.4 46.6
BP IP 301.7 318.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (37 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Luis Campusano, Samad Taylor, Miguel Andujar, Ramón Laureano, Jackson Merrill
Luis Campusano Catcher OPS: 0.915 (81 AB)
Samad Taylor Outfielder OPS: 0.808 (88 AB)
Miguel Andujar Designated Hitter OPS: 0.726 (239 AB)
Ramón Laureano Outfielder OPS: 0.660 (182 AB)
Jackson Merrill Outfielder OPS: 0.658 (387 AB)
Run Adjustment: 88.8% of full strength
ATL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ronald Acuña Jr., Jorge Mateo
Ronald Acuña Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.794 (195 AB)
Jorge Mateo Shortstop OPS: 0.675 (127 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0019 (Temp: 1.0212 | Wind: 0.9811)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 2.8 - ATL 5.0
Simulated Avg: SD 2.8 - ATL 5.0
Win Probability: SD 27.0% - ATL 73.0%
Fair Moneyline: SD +270 / ATL -270
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.0: 39.9%
Under 8.0: 50.7%
SD +1.5: 43.9%
ATL -1.5: 56.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 1.3 - ATL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.3 - ATL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: SD 23.6% - ATL 76.4% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +324 / ATL -324
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML +209 +270 -5.3%
ATL ML -259 -270 +0.8%
SD +1.5 +103 +128 -5.4%
ATL -1.5 -124 -128 +0.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -12.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -1.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | July 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Taj Bradley Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 3.85 ERA: 4.0
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 10.37 K/9: 10.94
BB/9: 3.59 BB/9: 2.79
FIP: 3.93 FIP: 3.78
IP: 107.7 IP: 119.3
xERA: 3.91 xERA: 4.37
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN CLE Lg Avg
Record 50-53 54-49
R/Game 4.81 4.04 4.52
RA/Game 5.12 4.08 4.52
OPS 0.734 0.691 0.722
wOBA 0.317 0.300 0.311
ERA 4.77 3.74 4.21
FIP 4.25 3.83 4.07
WHIP 1.40 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.42 9.23 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.471 0.496 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.93 3.71 4.29
BP FIP 4.31 3.57 4.11
BP WHIP 1.48 1.32
BP K/9 7.94 10.09
BP Quality* 52.4 46.1 46.6
BP IP 403.7 347.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Shawn Armstrong (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Austin Hedges, Angel Martínez, Gabriel Arias
Austin Hedges Catcher OPS: 0.742 (132 AB)
Angel Martínez Outfielder OPS: 0.718 (226 AB)
Gabriel Arias Third Base OPS: 0.692 (103 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0402 (Temp: 1.0033 | Wind: 1.0368)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 4.6 - CLE 4.0
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.6 - CLE 4.0
Win Probability: MIN 56.1% - CLE 43.9%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -128 / CLE +128
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 7.5: 57.7%
Under 7.5: 42.3%
MIN +1.5: 72.0%
CLE -1.5: 28.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 2.6 - CLE 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.6 - CLE 2.0
F5 Win Prob: MIN 59.9% - CLE 40.1% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -150 / CLE +150
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML +119 -128 +10.5%
CLE ML -144 +128 -15.2%
MIN +1.5 -186 -257 +6.9%
CLE -1.5 +153 +257 -11.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +5.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -10.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
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[HMC] Minnesota Twins (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +119 | Edge: 10.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00957
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | July 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ian Seymour Home: Shane Bieber
ERA: 4.79 ERA: 5.7
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.73
K/9: 10.51 K/9: 7.23
BB/9: 3.46 BB/9: 4.56
FIP: 4.22 FIP: 6.86
IP: 67.7 IP: 23.7
xERA: 3.67 xERA: 8.54
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.426
Pitcher Edge: TB (Ian Seymour)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB TOR Lg Avg
Record 59-42 46-56
R/Game 4.53 3.94 4.52
RA/Game 4.22 4.56 4.52
OPS 0.738 0.680 0.722
wOBA 0.317 0.294 0.311
ERA 3.84 4.18 4.21
FIP 4.06 3.92 4.07
WHIP 1.17 1.32 1.31
K/9 8.07 9.00 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.533 0.434 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.10 3.63 4.29
BP FIP 4.22 3.40 4.11
BP WHIP 1.23 1.32
BP K/9 8.16 9.00
BP Quality* 48.5 45.3 46.6
BP IP 353.0 228.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brendon Little (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Spencer Miles (51 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9650 (Temp: 0.9965 | Wind: 0.9683)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 4.6 - TOR 3.9
Simulated Avg: TB 4.6 - TOR 3.9
Win Probability: TB 56.6% - TOR 43.4%
Fair Moneyline: TB -130 / TOR +130
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.5: 47.2%
Under 8.5: 52.8%
TB -1.5: 40.0%
TOR +1.5: 60.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 2.7 - TOR 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.8 - TOR 2.1
F5 Win Prob: TB 60.7% - TOR 39.4% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -154 / TOR +154
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML -112 -130 +3.8%
TOR ML -108 +130 -8.5%
TB -1.5 +149 +150 -0.2%
TOR +1.5 -181 -150 -4.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -5.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +0.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | July 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brandon Pfaadt Home: Michael McGreevy
ERA: 4.58 ERA: 2.92
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 6.71 K/9: 5.92
BB/9: 2.75 BB/9: 2.0
FIP: 4.29 FIP: 4.14
IP: 59.0 IP: 108.0
xERA: 4.22 xERA: 5.35
xwOBA: 0.317 xwOBA: 0.352
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI STL Lg Avg
Record 53-49 52-49
R/Game 4.47 4.44 4.52
RA/Game 4.50 4.44 4.52
OPS 0.704 0.700 0.722
wOBA 0.303 0.303 0.311
ERA 4.21 4.12 4.21
FIP 4.31 3.97 4.07
WHIP 1.29 1.33 1.31
K/9 6.93 7.64 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.497 0.500 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.68 4.11 4.29
BP FIP 3.64 3.99 4.11
BP WHIP 1.18 1.32
BP K/9 7.71 7.90
BP Quality* 45.7 48.5 46.6
BP IP 328.0 361.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Gerardo Carrillo (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0401 (Temp: 1.0154 | Wind: 1.0243)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 4.6 - STL 4.7
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.6 - STL 4.7
Win Probability: ARI 49.0% - STL 51.0%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +104 / STL -104
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 7.5: 63.3%
Under 7.5: 36.6%
ARI +1.5: 64.6%
STL -1.5: 35.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 2.6 - STL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.6 - STL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ARI 48.9% - STL 51.1% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +104 / STL -104
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +103 +104 -0.3%
STL ML -125 -104 -4.5%
ARI +1.5 -204 -183 -2.5%
STL -1.5 +167 +183 -2.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +11.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -15.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
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[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00958
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | July 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Randy Dobnak Home: Troy Melton
ERA: 1.93 ERA: 1.8
WHIP: 1.5 WHIP: 0.87
K/9: 4.5 K/9: 8.18
BB/9: 5.14 BB/9: 2.45
FIP: 5.67 FIP: 3.75
IP: 14.0 IP: 55.0
xERA: 5.6 xERA: 3.03
xwOBA: 0.359 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: DET (Troy Melton)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC DET Lg Avg
Record 43-60 48-54
R/Game 4.25 4.25 4.52
RA/Game 5.18 3.97 4.52
OPS 0.715 0.712 0.722
wOBA 0.308 0.308 0.311
ERA 4.93 3.64 4.21
FIP 4.66 3.67 4.07
WHIP 1.44 1.22 1.31
K/9 7.73 8.60 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.410 0.531 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.61 3.97 4.29
BP FIP 5.30 4.06 4.11
BP WHIP 1.59 1.36
BP K/9 7.60 8.58
BP Quality* 63.2 49.9 46.6
BP IP 380.3 365.0
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Lange (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kenley Jansen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9993 (Temp: 1.0076 | Wind: 0.9917)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 3.5 - DET 4.6
Simulated Avg: KC 3.5 - DET 4.6
Win Probability: KC 38.8% - DET 61.2%
Fair Moneyline: KC +158 / DET -158
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.5: 43.6%
Under 8.5: 56.4%
KC +1.5: 55.8%
DET -1.5: 44.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 1.6 - DET 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 1.6 - DET 2.1
F5 Win Prob: KC 41.4% - DET 58.6% (Tie: 19.4%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +141 / DET -141
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +177 +158 +2.7%
DET ML -217 -158 -7.2%
KC +1.5 -112 -126 +2.9%
DET -1.5 -107 +126 -7.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +4.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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