2026-07-24
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-24
Games: 15 | Plays: 6
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | July 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tomoyuki Sugano Home: Shane Drohan
ERA: 4.76 ERA: 3.2
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 5.06 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 2.28 BB/9: 2.49
FIP: 5.32 FIP: 2.96
IP: 90.7 IP: 76.0
xERA: 7.0 xERA: 3.31
xwOBA: 0.394 xwOBA: 0.283
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Shane Drohan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL MIL Lg Avg
Record 41-63 64-38
R/Game 4.76 5.04 4.52
RA/Game 5.73 3.74 4.52
OPS 0.745 0.733 0.722
wOBA 0.320 0.315 0.311
ERA 5.50 3.44 4.21
FIP 4.71 3.43 4.07
WHIP 1.52 1.16 1.31
K/9 7.23 9.82 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.416 0.634 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.13 3.45 4.29
BP FIP 4.39 3.60 4.11
BP WHIP 1.53 1.27
BP K/9 7.62 9.14
BP Quality* 55.4 40.8 46.6
BP IP 361.3 331.0
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9833 (Temp: 1.0087 | Wind: 0.9748)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 3.6 - MIL 6.5
Simulated Avg: COL 3.6 - MIL 6.5
Win Probability: COL 25.6% - MIL 74.4%
Fair Moneyline: COL +291 / MIL -291
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 8.5: 60.6%
Under 8.5: 39.4%
COL +1.5: 39.2%
MIL -1.5: 60.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 1.9 - MIL 3.8
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 1.9 - MIL 3.8
F5 Win Prob: COL 24.4% - MIL 75.6% (Tie: 12.6%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +310 / MIL -310
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +224 +291 -5.3%
MIL ML -281 -291 +0.7%
COL +1.5 +105 +155 -9.6%
MIL -1.5 -127 -155 +4.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +8.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -13.0%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.6% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.3%
Fair ML: -154 | Kelly: 4.34%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00959
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | July 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Beck Way Home: Tarik Skubal
ERA: 3.22 ERA: 2.83
WHIP: 1.52 WHIP: 0.93
K/9: 8.46 K/9: 10.67
BB/9: 4.03 BB/9: 1.2
FIP: 4.89 FIP: 2.7
IP: 22.3 IP: 82.7
xERA: 4.31 xERA: 3.07
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.273
Pitcher Edge: DET (Tarik Skubal)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC DET Lg Avg
Record 43-61 49-54
R/Game 4.24 4.24 4.52
RA/Game 5.17 3.96 4.52
OPS 0.716 0.712 0.722
wOBA 0.308 0.308 0.311
ERA 4.92 3.63 4.21
FIP 4.66 3.68 4.07
WHIP 1.44 1.23 1.31
K/9 7.73 8.59 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.410 0.531 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.59 3.95 4.29
BP FIP 5.27 4.05 4.11
BP WHIP 1.58 1.36
BP K/9 7.58 8.54
BP Quality* 64.4 49.8 46.6
BP IP 388.3 369.0
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Steven Cruz (B2B, 29 pitches)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Strahm (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Drew Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0036 (Temp: 1.0097 | Wind: 0.9939)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 3.5 - DET 5.0
Simulated Avg: KC 3.5 - DET 5.0
Win Probability: KC 34.4% - DET 65.5%
Fair Moneyline: KC +190 / DET -190
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.5: 55.9%
Under 7.5: 44.1%
KC +1.5: 51.5%
DET -1.5: 48.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 1.6 - DET 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 1.6 - DET 2.4
F5 Win Prob: KC 34.8% - DET 65.1% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +187 / DET -187
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +217 +190 +2.9%
DET ML -271 -190 -7.5%
KC +1.5 -103 -106 +0.8%
DET -1.5 -117 +106 -5.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +3.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -8.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | July 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Matthew Boyd Home: Jared Jones
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 4.05
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 8.83 K/9: 10.8
BB/9: 2.42 BB/9: 2.7
FIP: 3.45 FIP: 3.23
IP: 52.0 IP: 40.0
xERA: 4.71 xERA: 3.31
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.283
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC PIT Lg Avg
Record 57-45 53-50
R/Game 5.10 5.27 4.52
RA/Game 4.46 4.78 4.52
OPS 0.751 0.763 0.722
wOBA 0.325 0.330 0.311
ERA 4.27 4.26 4.21
FIP 4.62 3.77 4.07
WHIP 1.27 1.31 1.31
K/9 7.91 9.24 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.561 0.545 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.52 4.44 4.29
BP FIP 4.75 4.21 4.11
BP WHIP 1.39 1.42
BP K/9 8.02 9.21
BP Quality* 50.6 48.1 46.6
BP IP 388.3 277.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0240 (Temp: 1.0138 | Wind: 1.0101)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 4.5 - PIT 5.5
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.6 - PIT 5.5
Win Probability: CHC 41.2% - PIT 58.8%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +143 / PIT -143
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 8.0: 60.2%
Under 8.0: 31.6%
CHC -1.5: 27.6%
PIT +1.5: 72.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 2.3 - PIT 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.3 - PIT 2.9
F5 Win Prob: CHC 41.8% - PIT 58.2% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +140 / PIT -140
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -103 +143 -9.5%
PIT ML -117 -143 +4.9%
CHC -1.5 +160 +262 -10.9%
PIT +1.5 -195 -262 +6.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +7.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -20.8%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.2% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.9%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.13%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00960
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | July 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Eduardo Rodriguez Home: Carson Palmquist
ERA: 2.62 ERA: 8.74
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.68
K/9: 6.33 K/9: 11.12
BB/9: 3.16 BB/9: 2.38
FIP: 4.09 FIP: 2.57
IP: 116.7 IP: 11.3
xERA: 5.11 xERA: 4.11
xwOBA: 0.345 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Carson Palmquist)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI WSH Lg Avg
Record 54-49 52-51
R/Game 4.52 5.50 4.52
RA/Game 4.51 5.25 4.52
OPS 0.709 0.771 0.722
wOBA 0.305 0.329 0.311
ERA 4.23 4.79 4.21
FIP 4.30 4.54 4.07
WHIP 1.29 1.40 1.31
K/9 6.88 7.94 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.501 0.521 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.75 6.02 4.29
BP FIP 3.63 5.20 4.11
BP WHIP 1.18 1.60
BP K/9 7.67 8.53
BP Quality* 44.4 59.4 46.6
BP IP 331.0 344.0
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryan Thompson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0196 (Temp: 1.0123 | Wind: 1.0072)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 6.3 - WSH 5.4
Simulated Avg: ARI 6.3 - WSH 5.4
Win Probability: ARI 56.8% - WSH 43.2%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -131 / WSH +131
Avg Total Runs: 11.7
Over 9.5: 63.4%
Under 9.5: 36.6%
ARI -1.5: 43.7%
WSH +1.5: 56.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 3.8 - WSH 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 3.8 - WSH 3.0
F5 Win Prob: ARI 60.1% - WSH 39.9% (Tie: 12.6%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -151 / WSH +151
F5 Avg Total: 6.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML -125 -131 +1.2%
WSH ML +104 +131 -5.8%
ARI -1.5 +129 +129 -0.0%
WSH +1.5 -156 -129 -4.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +11.0%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -15.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 9.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00961
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | July 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cam Schlittler Home: Jesús Luzardo
ERA: 2.2 ERA: 3.43
WHIP: 0.96 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 10.61 K/9: 11.16
BB/9: 1.83 BB/9: 2.89
FIP: 2.62 FIP: 2.71
IP: 123.0 IP: 115.3
xERA: 3.03 xERA: 2.91
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.266
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY PHI Lg Avg
Record 57-45 56-47
R/Game 4.71 4.35 4.52
RA/Game 3.84 4.50 4.52
OPS 0.735 0.705 0.722
wOBA 0.315 0.303 0.311
ERA 3.38 4.27 4.21
FIP 3.59 3.67 4.07
WHIP 1.18 1.32 1.31
K/9 8.95 9.89 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.592 0.485 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.13 4.60 4.29
BP FIP 3.64 3.67 4.11
BP WHIP 1.20 1.40
BP K/9 8.51 10.25
BP Quality* 39.4 45.6 46.6
BP IP 371.0 297.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0039 (Temp: 1.0115 | Wind: 0.9924)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 3.9 - PHI 3.3
Simulated Avg: NYY 3.9 - PHI 3.3
Win Probability: NYY 56.2% - PHI 43.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -128 / PHI +128
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 7.5: 43.8%
Under 7.5: 56.2%
NYY +1.5: 74.0%
PHI -1.5: 26.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 1.9 - PHI 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 1.9 - PHI 1.6
F5 Win Prob: NYY 56.5% - PHI 43.5% (Tie: 20.7%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -130 / PHI +130
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML +118 -128 +10.3%
PHI ML -142 +128 -14.9%
NYY +1.5 -193 -285 +8.1%
PHI -1.5 +158 +285 -12.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -8.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +3.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] New York Yankees (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +118 | Edge: 10.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00962
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | July 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Grant Holmes Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL BAL Lg Avg
Record 60-42 50-53
R/Game 4.98 4.58 4.52
RA/Game 3.94 4.71 4.52
OPS 0.736 0.720 0.722
wOBA 0.316 0.312 0.311
ERA 3.68 4.20 4.21
FIP 4.00 4.04 4.07
WHIP 1.24 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.64 7.99 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.605 0.488 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.53 4.11 4.29
BP FIP 3.68 3.94 4.11
BP WHIP 1.17 1.27
BP K/9 8.92 8.54
BP Quality* 45.0 44.5 46.6
BP IP 321.0 361.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0042 (Temp: 1.0089 | Wind: 0.9954)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.9 - BAL 4.9
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.9 - BAL 4.9
Win Probability: ATL 50.0% - BAL 50.0%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -100 / BAL +100
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 8.5: 58.8%
Under 8.5: 41.2%
ATL -1.5: 35.4%
BAL +1.5: 64.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.8 - BAL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.8 - BAL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: ATL 50.3% - BAL 49.6% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -101 / BAL +101
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -101 -100 -0.2%
BAL ML -120 +100 -4.6%
ATL -1.5 +161 +182 -2.9%
BAL +1.5 -197 -182 -1.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +6.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -11.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets
Regular Season | July 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Roki Sasaki Home: Sean Manaea
ERA: 4.98 ERA: 4.74
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 8.83 K/9: 9.15
BB/9: 3.53 BB/9: 2.94
FIP: 5.16 FIP: 4.0
IP: 86.7 IP: 79.7
xERA: 4.59 xERA: 4.34
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Sean Manaea)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD NYM Lg Avg
Record 65-38 43-60
R/Game 5.19 4.07 4.52
RA/Game 3.67 4.69 4.52
OPS 0.773 0.687 0.722
wOBA 0.330 0.297 0.311
ERA 3.55 4.23 4.21
FIP 3.72 3.88 4.07
WHIP 1.14 1.31 1.31
K/9 9.09 9.21 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.654 0.435 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.11 3.66 4.29
BP FIP 3.85 3.90 4.11
BP WHIP 1.26 1.25
BP K/9 9.76 9.23
BP Quality* 43.9 42.6 46.6
BP IP 302.3 258.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0057 (Temp: 1.0033 | Wind: 1.0024)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 4.9 - NYM 4.3
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.8 - NYM 4.4
Win Probability: LAD 54.6% - NYM 45.4%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -120 / NYM +120
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.0: 44.4%
Under 9.0: 46.4%
LAD -1.5: 39.1%
NYM +1.5: 60.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.9 - NYM 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.8 - NYM 2.6
F5 Win Prob: LAD 53.8% - NYM 46.2% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -117 / NYM +117
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -136 -120 -3.1%
NYM ML +113 +120 -1.5%
LAD -1.5 +119 +156 -6.6%
NYM +1.5 -143 -156 +2.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -7.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -6.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | July 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Joey Cantillo Home: Shane McClanahan
ERA: 3.74 ERA: 3.16
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 9.51 K/9: 8.41
BB/9: 4.42 BB/9: 3.07
FIP: 3.93 FIP: 3.25
IP: 106.0 IP: 91.0
xERA: 3.94 xERA: 4.17
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: TB (Shane McClanahan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE TB Lg Avg
Record 54-50 59-43
R/Game 4.01 4.50 4.52
RA/Game 4.07 4.21 4.52
OPS 0.687 0.735 0.722
wOBA 0.298 0.316 0.311
ERA 3.71 3.83 4.21
FIP 3.80 4.04 4.07
WHIP 1.26 1.17 1.31
K/9 9.25 8.09 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.493 0.531 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.71 4.13 4.29
BP FIP 3.58 4.28 4.11
BP WHIP 1.32 1.22
BP K/9 10.02 8.40
BP Quality* 47.7 47.2 46.6
BP IP 352.0 311.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ian Seymour (87 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 3.4 - TB 4.2
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.4 - TB 4.2
Win Probability: CLE 41.1% - TB 58.9%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +143 / TB -143
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.0: 48.7%
Under 7.0: 41.0%
CLE +1.5: 59.3%
TB -1.5: 40.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 1.8 - TB 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.8 - TB 2.2
F5 Win Prob: CLE 41.6% - TB 58.4% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +141 / TB -141
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML +108 +143 -7.0%
TB ML -130 -143 +2.4%
CLE +1.5 -198 -146 -7.2%
TB -1.5 +162 +146 +2.5%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -3.7%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -11.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | July 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Germán Márquez Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD MIA Lg Avg
Record 50-53 52-51
R/Game 4.14 4.44 4.52
RA/Game 4.43 4.33 4.52
OPS 0.690 0.732 0.722
wOBA 0.298 0.316 0.311
ERA 4.25 4.05 4.21
FIP 4.13 3.85 4.07
WHIP 1.34 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.30 8.64 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.469 0.511 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.67 4.35 4.29
BP FIP 3.53 3.63 4.11
BP WHIP 1.23 1.26
BP K/9 9.74 9.49
BP Quality* 48.1 43.9 46.6
BP IP 304.0 296.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Griffin Canning (59 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Matt Waldron (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0173 (Temp: 1.0201 | Wind: 0.9973)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.7 - MIA 5.4
Simulated Avg: SD 3.8 - MIA 5.4
Win Probability: SD 34.5% - MIA 65.5%
Fair Moneyline: SD +190 / MIA -190
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 9.0: 43.6%
Under 9.0: 47.4%
SD +1.5: 50.4%
MIA -1.5: 49.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.1 - MIA 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.1 - MIA 3.3
F5 Win Prob: SD 32.9% - MIA 67.1% (Tie: 14.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +204 / MIA -204
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +113 +190 -12.5%
MIA ML -136 -190 +7.9%
SD +1.5 -181 -101 -14.1%
MIA -1.5 +149 +101 +9.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -8.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -4.9%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Miami Marlins -1.5 (Run Line) [+149]
Model: 49.6% | Market: 40.2% | Edge: 9.5%
Fair ML: +101 | Kelly: 3.96%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00963
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | July 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Trey Yesavage Home: Patrick Sandoval
ERA: 3.78 ERA: 4.82
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.71
K/9: 8.67 K/9: 9.64
BB/9: 4.56 BB/9: 1.93
FIP: 3.98 FIP: 2.99
IP: 81.0 IP: 9.3
xERA: 3.34 xERA: 4.34
xwOBA: 0.284 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Patrick Sandoval)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR BOS Lg Avg
Record 47-56 52-49
R/Game 3.93 4.22 4.52
RA/Game 4.52 3.77 4.52
OPS 0.680 0.707 0.722
wOBA 0.293 0.306 0.311
ERA 4.15 3.56 4.21
FIP 3.90 3.64 4.07
WHIP 1.31 1.22 1.31
K/9 8.97 8.61 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.436 0.551 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.60 3.62 4.29
BP FIP 3.37 3.77 4.11
BP WHIP 1.31 1.29
BP K/9 9.04 8.53
BP Quality* 45.0 42.2 46.6
BP IP 230.0 300.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0028 (Temp: 1.0060 | Wind: 0.9969)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 3.7 - BOS 4.2
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.7 - BOS 4.1
Win Probability: TOR 44.9% - BOS 55.1%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +123 / BOS -123
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 9.0: 31.5%
Under 9.0: 59.8%
TOR +1.5: 62.9%
BOS -1.5: 37.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.1 - BOS 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.1 - BOS 2.2
F5 Win Prob: TOR 47.7% - BOS 52.3% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +110 / BOS -110
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML +109 +123 -2.9%
BOS ML -131 -123 -1.6%
TOR +1.5 -199 -170 -3.6%
BOS -1.5 +163 +170 -0.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -20.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +7.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: -148 | Kelly: 3.87%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00964
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | July 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Spencer Arrighetti Home: Davis Martin
ERA: 4.34 ERA: 3.31
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 8.24
BB/9: 4.97 BB/9: 2.8
FIP: 4.55 FIP: 2.94
IP: 87.0 IP: 106.0
xERA: 5.07 xERA: 4.37
xwOBA: 0.344 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Davis Martin)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU CWS Lg Avg
Record 50-54 54-47
R/Game 4.55 4.78 4.52
RA/Game 4.98 4.35 4.52
OPS 0.728 0.727 0.722
wOBA 0.310 0.311 0.311
ERA 4.71 4.08 4.21
FIP 4.59 4.04 4.07
WHIP 1.39 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.94 8.59 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.459 0.544 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.43 4.31 4.29
BP FIP 4.49 4.35 4.11
BP WHIP 1.34 1.33
BP K/9 9.08 8.47
BP Quality* 48.7 47.9 46.6
BP IP 388.3 292.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0020 (Temp: 1.0031 | Wind: 0.9988)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.1 - CWS 5.3
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.1 - CWS 5.3
Win Probability: HOU 38.6% - CWS 61.4%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +159 / CWS -159
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 9.0: 45.9%
Under 9.0: 45.4%
HOU +1.5: 54.2%
CWS -1.5: 45.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.1 - CWS 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.1 - CWS 3.0
F5 Win Prob: HOU 36.0% - CWS 64.0% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +178 / CWS -178
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +113 +159 -8.3%
CWS ML -136 -159 +3.8%
HOU +1.5 -175 -119 -9.4%
CWS -1.5 +144 +119 +4.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -6.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -7.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | July 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryce Miller Home: MacKenzie Gore
ERA: 2.27 ERA: 4.8
WHIP: 0.88 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 10.09 K/9: 9.92
BB/9: 1.42 BB/9: 3.42
FIP: 3.18 FIP: 3.68
IP: 63.3 IP: 110.7
xERA: 2.49 xERA: 3.97
xwOBA: 0.246 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryce Miller)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA TEX Lg Avg
Record 51-52 51-51
R/Game 4.03 4.19 4.52
RA/Game 3.86 4.48 4.52
OPS 0.687 0.722 0.722
wOBA 0.299 0.312 0.311
ERA 3.59 4.32 4.21
FIP 3.44 4.01 4.07
WHIP 1.17 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.68 8.67 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.519 0.469 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.46 4.71 4.29
BP FIP 3.55 4.23 4.11
BP WHIP 1.28 1.33
BP K/9 8.53 7.81
BP Quality* 40.8 48.5 46.6
BP IP 289.0 290.3
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0029 (Temp: 1.0297 | Wind: 0.9739)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 4.2 - TEX 3.4
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.2 - TEX 3.4
Win Probability: SEA 58.6% - TEX 41.4%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -142 / TEX +142
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 7.5: 47.1%
Under 7.5: 52.9%
SEA -1.5: 40.6%
TEX +1.5: 59.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.3 - TEX 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.3 - TEX 1.6
F5 Win Prob: SEA 63.2% - TEX 36.8% (Tie: 19.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -172 / TEX +172
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -114 -142 +5.4%
TEX ML -105 +142 -9.9%
SEA -1.5 +143 +146 -0.6%
TEX +1.5 -174 -146 -4.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -5.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +0.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | July 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jacob Lopez Home: Zebby Matthews
ERA: 6.64 ERA: 5.4
WHIP: 1.73 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 7.39 K/9: 7.46
BB/9: 5.43 BB/9: 2.7
FIP: 5.66 FIP: 5.13
IP: 59.7 IP: 70.0
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 4.78
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.335
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Zebby Matthews)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH MIN Lg Avg
Record 43-59 51-53
R/Game 4.49 4.79 4.52
RA/Game 5.69 5.08 4.52
OPS 0.732 0.730 0.722
wOBA 0.315 0.315 0.311
ERA 5.39 4.71 4.21
FIP 4.86 4.25 4.07
WHIP 1.49 1.39 1.31
K/9 8.64 8.41 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.394 0.473 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.81 4.87 4.29
BP FIP 4.84 4.30 4.11
BP WHIP 1.59 1.47
BP K/9 9.29 7.95
BP Quality* 56.8 58.1 46.6
BP IP 367.3 408.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Andrew Morris (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Jack Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9798 (Temp: 1.0104 | Wind: 0.9698)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 5.3 - MIN 6.0
Simulated Avg: ATH 5.3 - MIN 6.0
Win Probability: ATH 44.2% - MIN 55.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +126 / MIN -126
Avg Total Runs: 11.3
Over 9.5: 61.0%
Under 9.5: 39.0%
ATH +1.5: 58.2%
MIN -1.5: 41.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 3.0 - MIN 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.9 - MIN 3.4
F5 Win Prob: ATH 44.4% - MIN 55.6% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +125 / MIN -125
F5 Avg Total: 6.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML +119 +126 -1.5%
MIN ML -144 -126 -3.2%
ATH +1.5 -171 -139 -4.9%
MIN -1.5 +141 +139 +0.3%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +8.6%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -13.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.6%
Fair ML: -156 | Kelly: 4.50%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00965
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | July 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Rhett Lowder Home: Dustin May
ERA: 5.75 ERA: 4.78
WHIP: 1.64 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 7.63 K/9: 8.72
BB/9: 4.38 BB/9: 2.94
FIP: 4.49 FIP: 3.07
IP: 72.0 IP: 98.0
xERA: 5.64 xERA: 3.91
xwOBA: 0.36 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: STL (Dustin May)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN STL Lg Avg
Record 47-54 52-50
R/Game 4.19 4.45 4.52
RA/Game 4.81 4.49 4.52
OPS 0.709 0.701 0.722
wOBA 0.306 0.303 0.311
ERA 4.56 4.18 4.21
FIP 4.71 3.98 4.07
WHIP 1.43 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.17 7.62 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.437 0.496 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.90 4.23 4.29
BP FIP 5.10 3.98 4.11
BP WHIP 1.48 1.34
BP K/9 8.29 7.92
BP Quality* 57.6 49.0 46.6
BP IP 374.7 363.7
Bullpen Edge: STL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Matt Svanson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 17%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9992 (Temp: 1.0054 | Wind: 0.9938)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 3.9 - STL 5.5
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.9 - STL 5.5
Win Probability: CIN 34.8% - STL 65.1%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +187 / STL -187
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.0: 55.3%
Under 8.0: 35.8%
CIN +1.5: 50.4%
STL -1.5: 49.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.0 - STL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.0 - STL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: CIN 34.2% - STL 65.8% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +192 / STL -192
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +129 +187 -8.8%
STL ML -156 -187 +4.2%
CIN +1.5 -171 -101 -12.7%
STL -1.5 +141 +101 +8.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +2.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -16.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (Run Line) [+141]
Model: 49.6% | Market: 41.5% | Edge: 8.2%
Fair ML: +101 | Kelly: 3.49%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00966
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | July 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Grayson Rodriguez Home: Logan Webb
ERA: 8.23 ERA: 3.87
WHIP: 1.77 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 6.94 K/9: 7.15
BB/9: 4.37 BB/9: 2.27
FIP: 4.87 FIP: 3.36
IP: 35.0 IP: 107.0
xERA: 7.41 xERA: 3.94
xwOBA: 0.403 xwOBA: 0.307
Pitcher Edge: SF (Logan Webb)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA SF Lg Avg
Record 41-62 42-60
R/Game 4.29 4.09 4.52
RA/Game 4.85 4.72 4.52
OPS 0.702 0.723 0.722
wOBA 0.305 0.307 0.311
ERA 4.52 4.40 4.21
FIP 4.11 4.14 4.07
WHIP 1.36 1.35 1.31
K/9 9.01 7.74 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.444 0.435 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.37 4.56 4.29
BP FIP 4.08 4.30 4.11
BP WHIP 1.36 1.45
BP K/9 9.82 7.77
BP Quality* 48.2 52.5 46.6
BP IP 348.3 333.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mitch Farris (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Keaton Winn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 19 mph (gusts 32 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), strong crosswind (19 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9636 (Temp: 0.9873 | Wind: 0.9760)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 3.8 - SF 5.2
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.8 - SF 5.2
Win Probability: LAA 36.5% - SF 63.5%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +174 / SF -174
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 50.7%
Under 8.5: 49.2%
LAA +1.5: 53.0%
SF -1.5: 47.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 1.9 - SF 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.9 - SF 3.3
F5 Win Prob: LAA 28.9% - SF 71.1% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +245 / SF -245
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +130 +174 -7.0%
SF ML -157 -174 +2.4%
LAA +1.5 -163 -113 -9.0%
SF -1.5 +135 +113 +4.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -1.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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