2026-07-25
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-25
Games: 15 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | July 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael Wacha Home: Casey Mize
ERA: 3.66 ERA: 2.79
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.03
K/9: 7.25 K/9: 9.15
BB/9: 2.59 BB/9: 2.12
FIP: 3.91 FIP: 2.58
IP: 125.3 IP: 80.7
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 3.14
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.276
Pitcher Edge: DET (Casey Mize)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC DET Lg Avg
Record 43-62 50-54
R/Game 4.21 4.22 4.51
RA/Game 5.14 3.93 4.51
OPS 0.713 0.711 0.721
wOBA 0.307 0.307 0.311
ERA 4.90 3.61 4.20
FIP 4.64 3.65 4.06
WHIP 1.43 1.22 1.31
K/9 7.74 8.63 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.409 0.532 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.62 3.93 4.28
BP FIP 5.27 4.04 4.10
BP WHIP 1.59 1.35
BP K/9 7.56 8.52
BP Quality* 61.5 51.1 46.5
BP IP 389.3 370.7
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Noah Cameron (97 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Kenley Jansen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Bobby Witt Jr., Tyler Tolbert, Maikel Garcia
Bobby Witt Jr. Shortstop OPS: 0.800 (369 AB)
Tyler Tolbert Unknown OPS: 0.782 (63 AB)
Maikel Garcia Third Base OPS: 0.693 (268 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.9% of full strength
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson, Javier Báez
Dillon Dingler Catcher OPS: 0.871 (353 AB)
Spencer Torkelson First Base OPS: 0.717 (352 AB)
Javier Báez Shortstop OPS: 0.677 (78 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0003 (Temp: 1.0162 | Wind: 0.9844)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 3.2 - DET 4.3
Simulated Avg: KC 3.2 - DET 4.3
Win Probability: KC 37.5% - DET 62.5%
Fair Moneyline: KC +167 / DET -167
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 8.0: 37.9%
Under 8.0: 52.5%
KC +1.5: 55.9%
DET -1.5: 44.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 1.4 - DET 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 1.4 - DET 2.0
F5 Win Prob: KC 36.9% - DET 63.1% (Tie: 20.5%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +171 / DET -171
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +134 +167 -5.3%
DET ML -162 -167 +0.7%
KC +1.5 -157 -127 -5.2%
DET -1.5 +130 +127 +0.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -14.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +0.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | July 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Mitch Bratt Home: Foster Griffin
ERA: 5.06 ERA: 2.68
WHIP: 1.78 WHIP: 1.03
K/9: 5.91 K/9: 8.51
BB/9: 5.06 BB/9: 2.07
FIP: 7.12 FIP: 3.78
IP: 10.7 IP: 117.3
xERA: 5.3 xERA: 3.88
xwOBA: 0.351 xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Foster Griffin)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI WSH Lg Avg
Record 55-49 52-52
R/Game 4.51 5.47 4.51
RA/Game 4.49 5.23 4.51
OPS 0.707 0.769 0.721
wOBA 0.305 0.328 0.311
ERA 4.20 4.77 4.20
FIP 4.30 4.52 4.06
WHIP 1.29 1.40 1.31
K/9 6.88 7.95 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.502 0.521 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.72 5.97 4.28
BP FIP 3.61 5.19 4.10
BP WHIP 1.17 1.60
BP K/9 7.68 8.54
BP Quality* 41.1 62.2 46.5
BP IP 334.0 346.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Zack Littell (77 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Max Kranick (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0162 (Temp: 1.0162 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 4.6 - WSH 5.6
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.6 - WSH 5.6
Win Probability: ARI 40.9% - WSH 59.1%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +144 / WSH -144
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 9.0: 52.4%
Under 9.0: 39.3%
ARI +1.5: 56.0%
WSH -1.5: 44.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 2.1 - WSH 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.1 - WSH 3.3
F5 Win Prob: ARI 31.7% - WSH 68.3% (Tie: 14.2%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +216 / WSH -216
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +119 +144 -4.7%
WSH ML -144 -144 +0.1%
ARI +1.5 -168 -127 -6.7%
WSH -1.5 +139 +127 +2.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -0.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -13.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | July 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryan Johnson Home: Robbie Ray
ERA: 6.1 ERA: 3.33
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 7.04 K/9: 7.81
BB/9: 3.76 BB/9: 4.39
FIP: 6.18 FIP: 4.59
IP: 38.3 IP: 110.7
xERA: 4.61 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: SF (Robbie Ray)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA SF Lg Avg
Record 41-63 43-60
R/Game 4.31 4.12 4.51
RA/Game 4.88 4.73 4.51
OPS 0.703 0.723 0.721
wOBA 0.305 0.307 0.311
ERA 4.54 4.41 4.20
FIP 4.12 4.14 4.06
WHIP 1.37 1.35 1.31
K/9 9.00 7.75 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.444 0.437 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.33 4.56 4.28
BP FIP 4.07 4.31 4.10
BP WHIP 1.36 1.45
BP K/9 9.80 7.84
BP Quality* 51.0 51.1 46.5
BP IP 353.7 337.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Samy Natera Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Erik Miller (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 18 mph (gusts 26 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), strong crosswind (18 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9758 (Temp: 0.9987 | Wind: 0.9771)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 4.1 - SF 4.8
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.1 - SF 4.8
Win Probability: LAA 43.1% - SF 56.9%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +132 / SF -132
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.0: 41.9%
Under 9.0: 49.2%
LAA +1.5: 59.5%
SF -1.5: 40.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 2.2 - SF 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.2 - SF 2.9
F5 Win Prob: LAA 40.3% - SF 59.7% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +148 / SF -148
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +104 +132 -5.9%
SF ML -125 -132 +1.3%
LAA +1.5 -191 -147 -6.2%
SF -1.5 +157 +147 +1.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -10.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -3.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | July 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dylan Cease Home: Sonny Gray
ERA: 2.67 ERA: 2.48
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 13.37 K/9: 7.97
BB/9: 3.88 BB/9: 2.48
FIP: 2.29 FIP: 3.56
IP: 104.3 IP: 101.7
xERA: 2.93 xERA: 3.63
xwOBA: 0.267 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Dylan Cease)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR BOS Lg Avg
Record 47-57 53-49
R/Game 3.93 4.24 4.51
RA/Game 4.54 3.77 4.51
OPS 0.681 0.710 0.721
wOBA 0.294 0.306 0.311
ERA 4.17 3.56 4.20
FIP 3.91 3.64 4.06
WHIP 1.31 1.22 1.31
K/9 9.02 8.61 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.435 0.553 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.65 3.65 4.28
BP FIP 3.38 3.80 4.10
BP WHIP 1.33 1.27
BP K/9 9.00 8.52
BP Quality* 46.9 45.3 46.5
BP IP 232.0 295.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0575 (Temp: 1.0069 | Wind: 1.0503)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.7 - BOS 3.7
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.7 - BOS 3.7
Win Probability: TOR 49.3% - BOS 50.7%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +103 / BOS -103
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.5: 46.1%
Under 7.5: 53.9%
TOR -1.5: 31.8%
BOS +1.5: 68.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 1.9 - BOS 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.9 - BOS 1.6
F5 Win Prob: TOR 55.7% - BOS 44.3% (Tie: 20.3%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -126 / BOS +126
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML -110 +103 -3.1%
BOS ML -109 -103 -1.5%
TOR -1.5 +154 +215 -7.6%
BOS +1.5 -188 -215 +3.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -6.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +1.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | July 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: JP Sears Home: Eury Pérez
ERA: 4.38 ERA: 3.53
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 7.3 K/9: 10.21
BB/9: 2.92 BB/9: 3.63
FIP: 5.08 FIP: 3.89
IP: 24.7 IP: 91.7
xERA: 4.83 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.311
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Eury Pérez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD MIA Lg Avg
Record 51-53 52-52
R/Game 4.13 4.41 4.51
RA/Game 4.40 4.33 4.51
OPS 0.689 0.733 0.721
wOBA 0.297 0.316 0.311
ERA 4.23 4.05 4.20
FIP 4.13 3.87 4.06
WHIP 1.34 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.32 8.64 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.471 0.509 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.62 4.38 4.28
BP FIP 3.51 3.70 4.10
BP WHIP 1.22 1.27
BP K/9 9.75 9.45
BP Quality* 44.8 45.9 46.5
BP IP 308.3 300.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 17%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0034 (Temp: 1.0235 | Wind: 0.9803)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 3.6 - MIA 4.2
Simulated Avg: SD 3.6 - MIA 4.2
Win Probability: SD 43.0% - MIA 57.0%
Fair Moneyline: SD +132 / MIA -132
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.0: 39.6%
Under 8.0: 50.5%
SD +1.5: 60.9%
MIA -1.5: 39.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 1.9 - MIA 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.9 - MIA 2.4
F5 Win Prob: SD 42.4% - MIA 57.6% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +136 / MIA -136
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML +114 +132 -3.7%
MIA ML -137 -132 -0.8%
SD +1.5 -181 -156 -3.5%
MIA -1.5 +149 +156 -1.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -12.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -1.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | July 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryan Weathers Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY PHI Lg Avg
Record 58-45 56-48
R/Game 4.67 4.31 4.51
RA/Game 3.81 4.46 4.51
OPS 0.732 0.702 0.721
wOBA 0.314 0.302 0.311
ERA 3.35 4.23 4.20
FIP 3.56 3.66 4.06
WHIP 1.18 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.99 9.91 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.593 0.484 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.12 4.57 4.28
BP FIP 3.63 3.64 4.10
BP WHIP 1.19 1.39
BP K/9 8.50 10.27
BP Quality* 42.3 45.3 46.5
BP IP 372.7 299.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0186 (Temp: 1.0117 | Wind: 1.0069)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.8 - PHI 4.5
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.8 - PHI 4.5
Win Probability: NYY 52.6% - PHI 47.4%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -111 / PHI +111
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.0: 44.9%
Under 9.0: 46.3%
NYY -1.5: 37.2%
PHI +1.5: 62.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.7 - PHI 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.7 - PHI 2.6
F5 Win Prob: NYY 52.2% - PHI 47.8% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -109 / PHI +109
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -124 -111 -2.8%
PHI ML +103 +111 -1.9%
NYY -1.5 +134 +169 -5.6%
PHI +1.5 -162 -169 +1.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -7.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -6.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | July 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tanner Bibee Home: Nick Martinez
ERA: 3.86 ERA: 2.59
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 6.96 K/9: 5.01
BB/9: 2.65 BB/9: 1.62
FIP: 4.62 FIP: 3.81
IP: 119.0 IP: 111.3
xERA: 4.48 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.326 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: TB (Nick Martinez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE TB Lg Avg
Record 54-51 60-43
R/Game 4.00 4.56 4.51
RA/Game 4.13 4.19 4.51
OPS 0.687 0.739 0.721
wOBA 0.298 0.317 0.311
ERA 3.77 3.83 4.20
FIP 3.82 4.03 4.06
WHIP 1.27 1.17 1.31
K/9 9.26 8.08 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.485 0.538 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.79 4.13 4.28
BP FIP 3.61 4.28 4.10
BP WHIP 1.33 1.22
BP K/9 10.05 8.41
BP Quality* 48.2 47.2 46.5
BP IP 356.3 315.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Franco Aleman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Chris Roycroft (38 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 3.6 - TB 4.7
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.5 - TB 4.6
Win Probability: CLE 38.6% - TB 61.4%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +159 / TB -159
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.0: 44.0%
Under 8.0: 46.3%
CLE +1.5: 55.8%
TB -1.5: 44.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 1.9 - TB 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.9 - TB 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CLE 38.4% - TB 61.7% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +161 / TB -161
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML +101 +159 -11.2%
TB ML -122 -159 +6.5%
CLE +1.5 -205 -126 -11.4%
TB -1.5 +168 +126 +6.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -8.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -6.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | July 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shota Imanaga Home: Paul Skenes
ERA: 3.91 ERA: 3.43
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 8.53 K/9: 10.77
BB/9: 2.19 BB/9: 2.03
FIP: 4.42 FIP: 2.62
IP: 115.0 IP: 115.3
xERA: 3.74 xERA: 2.75
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.259
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC PIT Lg Avg
Record 58-45 53-51
R/Game 5.08 5.24 4.51
RA/Game 4.44 4.76 4.51
OPS 0.748 0.760 0.721
wOBA 0.324 0.329 0.311
ERA 4.23 4.23 4.20
FIP 4.60 3.76 4.06
WHIP 1.27 1.30 1.31
K/9 7.88 9.24 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.561 0.544 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.48 4.43 4.28
BP FIP 4.73 4.20 4.10
BP WHIP 1.38 1.42
BP K/9 8.00 9.20
BP Quality* 53.3 52.5 46.5
BP IP 391.3 280.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Gavin Hollowell (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0003 (Temp: 1.0171 | Wind: 0.9835)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 4.2 - PIT 5.5
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.2 - PIT 5.5
Win Probability: CHC 38.5% - PIT 61.5%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +160 / PIT -160
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.0: 57.4%
Under 8.0: 34.1%
CHC -1.5: 24.7%
PIT +1.5: 75.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 1.9 - PIT 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 1.9 - PIT 2.8
F5 Win Prob: CHC 34.8% - PIT 65.2% (Tie: 16.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +187 / PIT -187
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML +100 +160 -11.5%
PIT ML -120 -160 +7.0%
CHC -1.5 +162 +305 -13.5%
PIT +1.5 -198 -305 +8.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +5.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -18.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | July 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryce Elder Home: Brandon Young
ERA: 4.06 ERA: 3.25
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 7.45 K/9: 7.29
BB/9: 2.73 BB/9: 3.15
FIP: 4.39 FIP: 3.81
IP: 108.7 IP: 91.3
xERA: 3.85 xERA: 4.21
xwOBA: 0.304 xwOBA: 0.317
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Brandon Young)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL BAL Lg Avg
Record 61-42 50-54
R/Game 5.00 4.60 4.51
RA/Game 3.96 4.73 4.51
OPS 0.736 0.720 0.721
wOBA 0.316 0.312 0.311
ERA 3.69 4.18 4.20
FIP 4.00 4.03 4.06
WHIP 1.24 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.65 8.02 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.605 0.487 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.53 4.10 4.28
BP FIP 3.72 3.97 4.10
BP WHIP 1.18 1.27
BP K/9 8.94 8.62
BP Quality* 49.7 47.6 46.5
BP IP 326.0 364.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Elieser Hernández (48 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Danny Young (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0038 (Temp: 1.0093 | Wind: 0.9945)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.8 - BAL 4.9
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.8 - BAL 4.9
Win Probability: ATL 49.1% - BAL 50.9%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +104 / BAL -104
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 9.0: 48.4%
Under 9.0: 42.9%
ATL -1.5: 34.2%
BAL +1.5: 65.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.5 - BAL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.5 - BAL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ATL 49.6% - BAL 50.3% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +101 / BAL -101
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -105 +104 -2.1%
BAL ML -114 -104 -2.3%
ATL -1.5 +154 +192 -5.2%
BAL +1.5 -187 -192 +0.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -4.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -9.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | July 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Mason Barnett Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH MIN Lg Avg
Record 44-59 51-54
R/Game 4.47 4.74 4.51
RA/Game 5.63 5.05 4.51
OPS 0.730 0.728 0.721
wOBA 0.314 0.315 0.311
ERA 5.34 4.69 4.20
FIP 4.85 4.24 4.06
WHIP 1.49 1.39 1.31
K/9 8.61 8.38 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.396 0.472 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.74 4.83 4.28
BP FIP 4.83 4.27 4.10
BP WHIP 1.58 1.46
BP K/9 9.23 7.98
BP Quality* 56.5 57.8 46.5
BP IP 371.3 411.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Travis Adams (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0128 (Temp: 1.0288 | Wind: 0.9844)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.9 - MIN 6.0
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.9 - MIN 6.0
Win Probability: ATH 40.6% - MIN 59.4%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +146 / MIN -146
Avg Total Runs: 10.9
Over 10.5: 50.0%
Under 10.5: 50.0%
ATH +1.5: 54.7%
MIN -1.5: 45.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.5 - MIN 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.5 - MIN 3.3
F5 Win Prob: ATH 38.7% - MIN 61.3% (Tie: 14.2%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +159 / MIN -159
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML +131 +146 -2.7%
MIN ML -159 -146 -2.0%
ATH +1.5 -147 -121 -4.8%
MIN -1.5 +122 +121 +0.2%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -2.4%
U 10.5 -110 N/A -2.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | July 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Hunter Brown Home: Sean Burke
ERA: 4.05 ERA: 3.2
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 9.68 K/9: 9.61
BB/9: 6.3 BB/9: 2.72
FIP: 4.67 FIP: 3.38
IP: 40.0 IP: 112.3
xERA: 4.01 xERA: 3.56
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.293
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Sean Burke)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU CWS Lg Avg
Record 51-54 54-48
R/Game 4.59 4.78 4.51
RA/Game 4.98 4.39 4.51
OPS 0.730 0.726 0.721
wOBA 0.311 0.311 0.311
ERA 4.71 4.13 4.20
FIP 4.57 4.03 4.06
WHIP 1.39 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.93 8.59 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.463 0.539 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.36 4.29 4.28
BP FIP 4.44 4.33 4.10
BP WHIP 1.34 1.34
BP K/9 9.11 8.52
BP Quality* 54.2 49.3 46.5
BP IP 394.3 295.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Kai-Wei Teng (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9990 (Temp: 1.0117 | Wind: 0.9874)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.1 - CWS 5.3
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.1 - CWS 5.3
Win Probability: HOU 38.6% - CWS 61.5%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +159 / CWS -159
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.5: 54.9%
Under 8.5: 45.1%
HOU +1.5: 54.4%
CWS -1.5: 45.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.0 - CWS 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.0 - CWS 2.7
F5 Win Prob: HOU 38.5% - CWS 61.5% (Tie: 16.3%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +159 / CWS -159
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +105 +159 -10.2%
CWS ML -126 -159 +5.7%
HOU +1.5 -198 -119 -12.1%
CWS -1.5 +162 +119 +7.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +2.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -7.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Chicago White Sox -1.5 (Run Line) [+162]
Model: 45.6% | Market: 38.2% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: +119 | Kelly: 3.01%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00967
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | July 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryan Feltner Home: Robert Gasser
ERA: 5.48 ERA: 4.91
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 6.85 K/9: 8.42
BB/9: 3.84 BB/9: 2.45
FIP: 5.63 FIP: 4.83
IP: 65.7 IP: 51.3
xERA: 5.85 xERA: 3.85
xwOBA: 0.366 xwOBA: 0.304
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Robert Gasser)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL MIL Lg Avg
Record 42-63 64-39
R/Game 4.76 5.01 4.51
RA/Game 5.70 3.75 4.51
OPS 0.745 0.732 0.721
wOBA 0.320 0.315 0.311
ERA 5.47 3.45 4.20
FIP 4.71 3.42 4.06
WHIP 1.51 1.17 1.31
K/9 7.24 9.80 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.419 0.630 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.08 3.42 4.28
BP FIP 4.36 3.59 4.10
BP WHIP 1.53 1.28
BP K/9 7.62 9.11
BP Quality* 52.1 42.3 46.5
BP IP 365.0 334.0
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Craig Yoho (37 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0077 (Temp: 1.0125 | Wind: 0.9953)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.7 - MIL 6.4
Simulated Avg: COL 4.7 - MIL 6.4
Win Probability: COL 35.8% - MIL 64.2%
Fair Moneyline: COL +180 / MIL -180
Avg Total Runs: 11.1
Over 9.0: 59.5%
Under 9.0: 32.8%
COL +1.5: 49.4%
MIL -1.5: 50.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.8 - MIL 3.8
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.8 - MIL 3.8
F5 Win Prob: COL 37.1% - MIL 62.9% (Tie: 12.9%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +170 / MIL -170
F5 Avg Total: 6.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +188 +180 +1.0%
MIL ML -232 -180 -5.6%
COL +1.5 -112 +103 -3.5%
MIL -1.5 -108 -103 -1.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +7.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -19.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.1%
Fair ML: -147 | Kelly: 3.74%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00968
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets
Regular Season | July 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Home: Nolan McLean
ERA: 2.78 ERA: 3.34
WHIP: 0.88 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 8.5 K/9: 10.72
BB/9: 1.88 BB/9: 3.26
FIP: 3.25 FIP: 2.95
IP: 119.7 IP: 113.3
xERA: 3.21 xERA: 3.38
xwOBA: 0.279 xwOBA: 0.286
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD NYM Lg Avg
Record 66-38 43-61
R/Game 5.18 4.05 4.51
RA/Game 3.65 4.68 4.51
OPS 0.774 0.686 0.721
wOBA 0.331 0.296 0.311
ERA 3.53 4.23 4.20
FIP 3.73 3.88 4.06
WHIP 1.13 1.31 1.31
K/9 9.10 9.17 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.655 0.434 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.11 3.72 4.28
BP FIP 3.88 3.94 4.10
BP WHIP 1.26 1.26
BP K/9 9.76 9.20
BP Quality* 44.0 46.1 46.5
BP IP 304.3 261.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cionel Pérez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0091 (Temp: 1.0044 | Wind: 1.0048)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 4.2 - NYM 3.3
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.3 - NYM 3.3
Win Probability: LAD 59.7% - NYM 40.3%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -148 / NYM +148
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.5: 47.8%
Under 7.5: 52.2%
LAD -1.5: 42.1%
NYM +1.5: 57.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.1 - NYM 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.1 - NYM 1.6
F5 Win Prob: LAD 59.5% - NYM 40.6% (Tie: 19.8%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -147 / NYM +147
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -156 -148 -1.2%
NYM ML +129 +148 -3.4%
LAD -1.5 +110 +138 -5.5%
NYM +1.5 -132 -138 +1.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -4.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -0.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | July 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Hunter Greene Home: Andre Pallante
ERA: 6.06 ERA: 4.02
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 14.33 K/9: 6.41
BB/9: 2.76 BB/9: 2.65
FIP: 3.22 FIP: 3.79
IP: 16.3 IP: 105.3
xERA: 4.39 xERA: 3.71
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.299
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Hunter Greene)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN STL Lg Avg
Record 48-54 52-51
R/Game 4.19 4.43 4.51
RA/Game 4.78 4.49 4.51
OPS 0.709 0.698 0.721
wOBA 0.306 0.302 0.311
ERA 4.53 4.17 4.20
FIP 4.69 3.97 4.06
WHIP 1.42 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.18 7.65 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.439 0.494 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.85 4.27 4.28
BP FIP 5.06 4.01 4.10
BP WHIP 1.47 1.35
BP K/9 8.32 7.93
BP Quality* 57.1 49.4 46.5
BP IP 378.7 366.7
Bullpen Edge: STL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 93°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (93°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0274 (Temp: 1.0309 | Wind: 0.9966)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 4.1 - STL 5.6
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.0 - STL 5.7
Win Probability: CIN 35.0% - STL 65.0%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +186 / STL -186
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.0: 57.2%
Under 8.0: 34.2%
CIN -1.5: 22.0%
STL +1.5: 78.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.1 - STL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.1 - STL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: CIN 34.8% - STL 65.2% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +187 / STL -187
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML -107 +186 -16.7%
STL ML -112 -186 +12.2%
CIN -1.5 +156 +355 -17.1%
STL +1.5 -189 -355 +12.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +4.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -18.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] St. Louis Cardinals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -112 | Edge: 12.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00969
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | July 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryan Woo Home: Nathan Eovaldi
ERA: 4.16 ERA: 4.21
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 8.89 K/9: 9.52
BB/9: 1.79 BB/9: 2.18
FIP: 3.14 FIP: 4.19
IP: 110.3 IP: 115.3
xERA: 3.45 xERA: 4.01
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryan Woo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA TEX Lg Avg
Record 51-53 52-51
R/Game 4.03 4.19 4.51
RA/Game 3.88 4.48 4.51
OPS 0.686 0.723 0.721
wOBA 0.300 0.313 0.311
ERA 3.61 4.32 4.20
FIP 3.46 3.99 4.06
WHIP 1.17 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.64 8.68 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.518 0.470 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.43 4.69 4.28
BP FIP 3.51 4.19 4.10
BP WHIP 1.28 1.32
BP K/9 8.58 7.85
BP Quality* 42.0 52.6 46.5
BP IP 291.7 293.7
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 98°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (98°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0027 (Temp: 1.0382 | Wind: 0.9658)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 4.4 - TEX 3.9
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.4 - TEX 3.9
Win Probability: SEA 54.7% - TEX 45.3%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -121 / TEX +121
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 7.5: 54.9%
Under 7.5: 45.1%
SEA -1.5: 38.1%
TEX +1.5: 61.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.3 - TEX 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.3 - TEX 2.1
F5 Win Prob: SEA 54.0% - TEX 46.0% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -117 / TEX +117
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -114 -121 +1.5%
TEX ML -105 +121 -5.9%
SEA -1.5 +153 +163 -1.4%
TEX +1.5 -186 -163 -3.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +2.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -7.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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