2026-07-26
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-26
Games: 15 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | July 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Parker Messick Home: Drew Rasmussen
ERA: 2.68 ERA: 3.28
WHIP: 1.05 WHIP: 0.98
K/9: 8.87 K/9: 8.88
BB/9: 2.75 BB/9: 1.55
FIP: 3.26 FIP: 3.14
IP: 117.7 IP: 104.3
xERA: 3.25 xERA: 3.34
xwOBA: 0.28 xwOBA: 0.284
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE TB Lg Avg
Record 54-52 61-43
R/Game 3.96 4.55 4.50
RA/Game 4.12 4.15 4.50
OPS 0.684 0.739 0.720
wOBA 0.297 0.317 0.310
ERA 3.77 3.79 4.20
FIP 3.80 4.01 4.05
WHIP 1.27 1.17 1.30
K/9 9.27 8.07 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.482 0.541 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.77 4.10 4.26
BP FIP 3.58 4.26 4.09
BP WHIP 1.33 1.22
BP K/9 10.10 8.42
BP Quality* 43.5 47.0 46.4
BP IP 358.3 318.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Gabriel Arias, Rhys Hoskins
Gabriel Arias Third Base OPS: 0.696 (111 AB)
Rhys Hoskins First Base OPS: 0.675 (235 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.4% of full strength
TB (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jonathan Aranda, Victor Mesa Jr., Jake Fraley
Jonathan Aranda First Base OPS: 0.815 (379 AB)
Victor Mesa Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.781 (110 AB)
Jake Fraley Outfielder OPS: 0.690 (82 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 3.2 - TB 3.4
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.2 - TB 3.4
Win Probability: CLE 47.1% - TB 52.9%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +112 / TB -112
Avg Total Runs: 6.6
Over 7.0: 36.5%
Under 7.0: 52.4%
CLE +1.5: 67.2%
TB -1.5: 32.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 1.6 - TB 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.6 - TB 1.7
F5 Win Prob: CLE 47.4% - TB 52.6% (Tie: 21.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +111 / TB -111
F5 Avg Total: 3.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML +104 +112 -1.9%
TB ML -125 -112 -2.7%
CLE +1.5 -215 -205 -1.1%
TB -1.5 +176 +205 -3.4%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -15.9%
U 7.0 -110 N/A +0.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | July 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kohl Drake Home: Miles Mikolas
ERA: 1.8 ERA: 5.6
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 4.68
BB/9: 3.6 BB/9: 1.84
FIP: 2.3 FIP: 5.46
IP: 5.0 IP: 98.0
xERA: 5.61 xERA: 5.08
xwOBA: 0.359 xwOBA: 0.344
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Kohl Drake)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI WSH Lg Avg
Record 55-50 53-52
R/Game 4.50 5.47 4.50
RA/Game 4.50 5.21 4.50
OPS 0.706 0.771 0.720
wOBA 0.304 0.329 0.310
ERA 4.22 4.76 4.20
FIP 4.31 4.51 4.05
WHIP 1.29 1.40 1.30
K/9 6.88 7.89 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.500 0.522 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.69 5.93 4.26
BP FIP 3.60 5.17 4.09
BP WHIP 1.18 1.59
BP K/9 7.69 8.48
BP Quality* 44.1 58.9 46.4
BP IP 337.0 349.0
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Gerardo Carrillo (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ildemaro Vargas, James McCann, Ryan Waldschmidt
Ildemaro Vargas First Base OPS: 0.719 (304 AB)
James McCann Catcher OPS: 0.694 (77 AB)
Ryan Waldschmidt Outfielder OPS: 0.672 (136 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.7% of full strength
WSH (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Joey Wiemer, Curtis Mead, Keibert Ruiz, José Tena, Daylen Lile
Joey Wiemer Outfielder OPS: 0.912 (70 AB)
Curtis Mead Third Base OPS: 0.852 (284 AB)
Keibert Ruiz Catcher OPS: 0.761 (217 AB)
José Tena Designated Hitter OPS: 0.714 (183 AB)
Daylen Lile Outfielder OPS: 0.703 (398 AB)
Run Adjustment: 87.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0097 (Temp: 1.0195 | Wind: 0.9904)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 5.3 - WSH 4.4
Simulated Avg: ARI 5.3 - WSH 4.4
Win Probability: ARI 58.5% - WSH 41.5%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -141 / WSH +141
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 10.0: 40.4%
Under 10.0: 51.2%
ARI -1.5: 43.5%
WSH +1.5: 56.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 3.0 - WSH 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 3.0 - WSH 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ARI 59.7% - WSH 40.3% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -148 / WSH +148
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML -114 -141 +5.2%
WSH ML -105 +141 -9.7%
ARI -1.5 +129 +130 -0.2%
WSH +1.5 -156 -130 -4.4%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -12.0%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -1.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | July 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jameson Taillon Home: Braxton Ashcraft
ERA: 5.38 ERA: 3.95
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 8.13 K/9: 10.06
BB/9: 3.13 BB/9: 2.17
FIP: 6.31 FIP: 3.38
IP: 72.0 IP: 116.3
xERA: 5.43 xERA: 3.55
xwOBA: 0.354 xwOBA: 0.292
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Braxton Ashcraft)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC PIT Lg Avg
Record 59-45 53-52
R/Game 5.13 5.19 4.50
RA/Game 4.39 4.82 4.50
OPS 0.752 0.757 0.720
wOBA 0.325 0.328 0.310
ERA 4.19 4.30 4.20
FIP 4.57 3.75 4.05
WHIP 1.26 1.31 1.30
K/9 7.87 9.31 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.571 0.534 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.48 4.58 4.26
BP FIP 4.73 4.36 4.09
BP WHIP 1.38 1.44
BP K/9 8.00 8.94
BP Quality* 51.8 50.9 46.4
BP IP 391.3 330.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Javier Assad (32 pitches yesterday)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ron Marinaccio (34 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0099 (Temp: 1.0165 | Wind: 0.9935)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 4.8 - PIT 6.7
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.7 - PIT 6.7
Win Probability: CHC 34.3% - PIT 65.7%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +191 / PIT -191
Avg Total Runs: 11.4
Over 9.0: 61.5%
Under 9.0: 30.8%
CHC +1.5: 47.8%
PIT -1.5: 52.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 2.4 - PIT 4.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.4 - PIT 4.0
F5 Win Prob: CHC 29.5% - PIT 70.5% (Tie: 12.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +239 / PIT -239
F5 Avg Total: 6.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML +109 +191 -13.5%
PIT ML -131 -191 +9.0%
CHC +1.5 -191 +109 -17.9%
PIT -1.5 +157 -109 +13.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +9.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -21.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +157 | Edge: 13.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00970
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | July 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kevin Gausman Home: Ranger Suarez
ERA: 4.51 ERA: 3.15
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 9.1 K/9: 9.56
BB/9: 2.65 BB/9: 2.56
FIP: 3.64 FIP: 2.54
IP: 115.7 IP: 91.3
xERA: 4.03 xERA: 3.32
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.283
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR BOS Lg Avg
Record 48-57 53-50
R/Game 3.95 4.19 4.50
RA/Game 4.50 3.80 4.50
OPS 0.683 0.706 0.720
wOBA 0.295 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.13 3.59 4.20
FIP 3.88 3.64 4.05
WHIP 1.31 1.23 1.30
K/9 9.05 8.61 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.441 0.545 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.50 3.63 4.26
BP FIP 3.32 3.76 4.09
BP WHIP 1.32 1.27
BP K/9 9.13 8.59
BP Quality* 40.0 43.6 46.4
BP IP 228.7 299.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Alec Gamboa (63 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Anthony Seigler, Connor Wong, Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Anthony Seigler Second Base OPS: 0.774 (102 AB)
Connor Wong Catcher OPS: 0.710 (128 AB)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa Second Base OPS: 0.705 (119 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0528 (Temp: 1.0031 | Wind: 1.0495)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.4 - BOS 4.1
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.5 - BOS 4.1
Win Probability: TOR 42.8% - BOS 57.2%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +134 / BOS -134
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 7.5: 47.5%
Under 7.5: 52.5%
TOR +1.5: 61.6%
BOS -1.5: 38.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 1.7 - BOS 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.7 - BOS 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TOR 38.1% - BOS 61.9% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +162 / BOS -162
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +113 +134 -4.1%
BOS ML -136 -134 -0.4%
TOR +1.5 -192 -160 -4.1%
BOS -1.5 +157 +160 -0.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -4.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +0.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | July 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Reynaldo López Home: Shane Baz
ERA: 3.95 ERA: 4.05
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 8.18 K/9: 8.03
BB/9: 3.82 BB/9: 3.21
FIP: 4.52 FIP: 3.38
IP: 66.0 IP: 117.7
xERA: 4.89 xERA: 4.26
xwOBA: 0.338 xwOBA: 0.318
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Shane Baz)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL BAL Lg Avg
Record 61-43 51-54
R/Game 4.97 4.58 4.50
RA/Game 3.95 4.70 4.50
OPS 0.734 0.719 0.720
wOBA 0.315 0.311 0.310
ERA 3.67 4.15 4.20
FIP 3.99 4.02 4.05
WHIP 1.24 1.33 1.30
K/9 8.70 8.03 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.603 0.488 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.52 4.10 4.26
BP FIP 3.68 3.99 4.09
BP WHIP 1.17 1.27
BP K/9 9.01 8.63
BP Quality* 46.4 47.7 46.4
BP IP 329.7 367.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Danny Young (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ronald Acuña Jr., Joey Bart
Ronald Acuña Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.794 (195 AB)
Joey Bart Catcher OPS: 0.682 (98 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.0% of full strength
BAL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Blaze Alexander, Adley Rutschman, Samuel Basallo, Jeremiah Jackson
Blaze Alexander Third Base OPS: 0.807 (221 AB)
Adley Rutschman Catcher OPS: 0.764 (247 AB)
Samuel Basallo Catcher OPS: 0.755 (282 AB)
Jeremiah Jackson Second Base OPS: 0.669 (210 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0122 (Temp: 1.0167 | Wind: 0.9956)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 4.7 - BAL 4.6
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.7 - BAL 4.6
Win Probability: ATL 50.5% - BAL 49.5%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -102 / BAL +102
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.0: 44.7%
Under 9.0: 46.5%
ATL -1.5: 35.1%
BAL +1.5: 64.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 2.5 - BAL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.5 - BAL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ATL 48.0% - BAL 52.0% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +108 / BAL -108
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -112 -102 -2.3%
BAL ML -108 +102 -2.4%
ATL -1.5 +149 +185 -5.0%
BAL +1.5 -181 -185 +0.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -7.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -5.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | July 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Luinder Avila Home: Framber Valdez
ERA: 4.86 ERA: 4.57
WHIP: 1.56 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 8.14 K/9: 7.31
BB/9: 5.0 BB/9: 3.16
FIP: 4.2 FIP: 3.85
IP: 63.0 IP: 108.3
xERA: 4.76 xERA: 4.29
xwOBA: 0.334 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: DET (Framber Valdez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC DET Lg Avg
Record 44-62 50-55
R/Game 4.20 4.20 4.50
RA/Game 5.11 3.92 4.50
OPS 0.712 0.711 0.720
wOBA 0.306 0.307 0.310
ERA 4.87 3.60 4.20
FIP 4.63 3.66 4.05
WHIP 1.43 1.22 1.30
K/9 7.71 8.60 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.411 0.531 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.59 3.95 4.26
BP FIP 5.25 4.09 4.09
BP WHIP 1.58 1.35
BP K/9 7.57 8.50
BP Quality* 58.3 49.9 46.4
BP IP 391.3 373.7
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Waguespack (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Bobby Witt Jr., Michael Massey, Carter Jensen, Maikel Garcia
Bobby Witt Jr. Shortstop OPS: 0.800 (369 AB)
Michael Massey Second Base OPS: 0.738 (257 AB)
Carter Jensen Catcher OPS: 0.737 (345 AB)
Maikel Garcia Third Base OPS: 0.693 (268 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.5% of full strength
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Javier Báez
Javier Báez Shortstop OPS: 0.677 (78 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9940 (Temp: 1.0178 | Wind: 0.9766)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 3.8 - DET 4.8
Simulated Avg: KC 3.8 - DET 4.8
Win Probability: KC 39.6% - DET 60.4%
Fair Moneyline: KC +152 / DET -152
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 9.0: 39.6%
Under 9.0: 51.5%
KC +1.5: 56.2%
DET -1.5: 43.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.1 - DET 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.1 - DET 2.5
F5 Win Prob: KC 42.6% - DET 57.4% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +135 / DET -135
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +157 +152 +0.7%
DET ML -192 -152 -5.4%
KC +1.5 -126 -129 +0.5%
DET -1.5 +104 +129 -5.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -12.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -0.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets
Regular Season | July 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Emmet Sheehan Home: Freddy Peralta
ERA: 5.13 ERA: 5.01
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 10.16 K/9: 9.03
BB/9: 2.77 BB/9: 3.78
FIP: 4.29 FIP: 4.37
IP: 87.7 IP: 109.7
xERA: 3.89 xERA: 3.84
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD NYM Lg Avg
Record 67-38 43-62
R/Game 5.17 4.04 4.50
RA/Game 3.65 4.68 4.50
OPS 0.773 0.684 0.720
wOBA 0.330 0.296 0.310
ERA 3.53 4.21 4.20
FIP 3.72 3.88 4.05
WHIP 1.13 1.31 1.30
K/9 9.12 9.17 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.654 0.433 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.13 3.69 4.26
BP FIP 3.86 3.92 4.09
BP WHIP 1.26 1.26
BP K/9 9.84 9.19
BP Quality* 45.5 42.9 46.4
BP IP 307.3 263.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Dalton Rushing, Ryan Ward, Miguel Rojas, Will Smith
Dalton Rushing Catcher OPS: 0.790 (202 AB)
Ryan Ward Outfielder OPS: 0.738 (55 AB)
Miguel Rojas Second Base OPS: 0.735 (147 AB)
Will Smith Catcher OPS: 0.720 (173 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.0% of full strength
NYM (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Juan Soto, Francisco Alvarez, Luis Robert Jr.
Juan Soto Outfielder OPS: 0.947 (293 AB)
Francisco Alvarez Catcher OPS: 0.781 (227 AB)
Luis Robert Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.673 (100 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0426 (Temp: 1.0181 | Wind: 1.0240)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 4.7 - NYM 3.9
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.7 - NYM 3.9
Win Probability: LAD 57.9% - NYM 42.1%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -137 / NYM +137
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 9.0: 38.4%
Under 9.0: 52.4%
LAD -1.5: 41.5%
NYM +1.5: 58.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.7 - NYM 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.7 - NYM 2.2
F5 Win Prob: LAD 59.4% - NYM 40.6% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -146 / NYM +146
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -146 -137 -1.5%
NYM ML +121 +137 -3.1%
LAD -1.5 +111 +141 -5.9%
NYM +1.5 -134 -141 +1.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -14.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -0.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | July 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Walker Buehler Home: Janson Junk
ERA: 5.23 ERA: 5.09
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 7.99 K/9: 6.65
BB/9: 3.8 BB/9: 2.61
FIP: 4.24 FIP: 4.56
IP: 94.7 IP: 69.0
xERA: 4.38 xERA: 4.23
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.317
Pitcher Edge: SD (Walker Buehler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD MIA Lg Avg
Record 52-53 52-53
R/Game 4.16 4.39 4.50
RA/Game 4.38 4.35 4.50
OPS 0.690 0.731 0.720
wOBA 0.298 0.315 0.310
ERA 4.21 4.08 4.20
FIP 4.12 3.87 4.05
WHIP 1.34 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.29 8.58 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.477 0.504 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.40 4.47 4.26
BP FIP 3.21 3.72 4.09
BP WHIP 1.17 1.28
BP K/9 10.19 9.42
BP Quality* 43.7 46.4 46.4
BP IP 262.3 302.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Matt Waldron (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JP Sears (55 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Dax Fulton (49 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Samad Taylor, Miguel Andujar, Ramón Laureano
Samad Taylor Outfielder OPS: 0.808 (88 AB)
Miguel Andujar Designated Hitter OPS: 0.726 (239 AB)
Ramón Laureano Outfielder OPS: 0.660 (182 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.2% of full strength
MIA (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Owen Caissie
Owen Caissie Outfielder OPS: 0.756 (218 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 43%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0021 (Temp: 1.0212 | Wind: 0.9814)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.8 - MIA 4.2
Simulated Avg: SD 3.8 - MIA 4.2
Win Probability: SD 45.0% - MIA 55.0%
Fair Moneyline: SD +122 / MIA -122
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 8.5: 41.3%
Under 8.5: 58.7%
SD +1.5: 62.7%
MIA -1.5: 37.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.2 - MIA 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.2 - MIA 2.4
F5 Win Prob: SD 45.9% - MIA 54.1% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +118 / MIA -118
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +109 +122 -2.9%
MIA ML -131 -122 -1.7%
SD +1.5 -193 -168 -3.2%
MIA -1.5 +158 +168 -1.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -11.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +6.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | July 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jeffrey Springs Home: Connor Prielipp
ERA: 5.96 ERA: 5.0
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 7.54 K/9: 9.59
BB/9: 3.33 BB/9: 3.38
FIP: 5.95 FIP: 3.65
IP: 102.7 IP: 66.7
xERA: 4.79 xERA: 4.26
xwOBA: 0.335 xwOBA: 0.318
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Connor Prielipp)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH MIN Lg Avg
Record 44-60 52-54
R/Game 4.42 4.72 4.50
RA/Game 5.60 5.00 4.50
OPS 0.727 0.727 0.720
wOBA 0.313 0.314 0.310
ERA 5.31 4.64 4.20
FIP 4.82 4.22 4.05
WHIP 1.48 1.38 1.30
K/9 8.62 8.39 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.394 0.473 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.67 4.77 4.26
BP FIP 4.77 4.25 4.09
BP WHIP 1.57 1.46
BP K/9 9.23 7.99
BP Quality* 58.9 57.5 46.4
BP IP 379.3 416.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Mason Barnett (54 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: José Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 98°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (98°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0163 (Temp: 1.0392 | Wind: 0.9780)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.9 - MIN 6.4
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.9 - MIN 6.4
Win Probability: ATH 37.2% - MIN 62.7%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +168 / MIN -168
Avg Total Runs: 11.3
Over 10.0: 53.3%
Under 10.0: 38.8%
ATH +1.5: 51.2%
MIN -1.5: 48.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.5 - MIN 3.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.5 - MIN 3.6
F5 Win Prob: ATH 35.0% - MIN 65.0% (Tie: 13.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +186 / MIN -186
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML +134 +168 -5.5%
MIN ML -162 -168 +0.9%
ATH +1.5 -150 -105 -8.8%
MIN -1.5 +124 +105 +4.2%
O 10.0 -110 N/A +0.9%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -13.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | July 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ronel Blanco Home: Erick Fedde
ERA: 7.71 ERA: 4.16
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 15.43 K/9: 6.39
BB/9: 5.79 BB/9: 3.39
FIP: 7.14 FIP: 5.05
IP: 4.7 IP: 93.0
xERA: 6.76 xERA: 4.57
xwOBA: 0.388 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Erick Fedde)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU CWS Lg Avg
Record 52-54 54-49
R/Game 4.58 4.75 4.50
RA/Game 4.94 4.39 4.50
OPS 0.728 0.723 0.720
wOBA 0.310 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.67 4.12 4.20
FIP 4.54 4.00 4.05
WHIP 1.38 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.94 8.63 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.466 0.536 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.34 4.28 4.26
BP FIP 4.42 4.32 4.09
BP WHIP 1.34 1.34
BP K/9 9.13 8.50
BP Quality* 52.5 50.7 46.4
BP IP 396.3 298.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
UNAVAIL: Trevor Richards (B2B, 33 pitches)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0276 (Temp: 1.0207 | Wind: 1.0068)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 5.1 - CWS 6.0
Simulated Avg: HOU 5.1 - CWS 6.0
Win Probability: HOU 42.5% - CWS 57.5%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +135 / CWS -135
Avg Total Runs: 11.1
Over 9.0: 59.3%
Under 9.0: 32.9%
HOU -1.5: 29.5%
CWS +1.5: 70.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.9 - CWS 3.4
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.9 - CWS 3.4
F5 Win Prob: HOU 42.5% - CWS 57.5% (Tie: 13.4%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +135 / CWS -135
F5 Avg Total: 6.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML -111 +135 -10.1%
CWS ML -108 -135 +5.6%
HOU -1.5 +142 +239 -11.8%
CWS +1.5 -173 -239 +7.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +7.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -19.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Chicago White Sox +1.5 (Run Line) [-173]
Model: 70.5% | Market: 63.4% | Edge: 7.1%
Fair ML: -239 | Kelly: 4.87%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00971
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | July 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kyle Freeland Home: Jacob Misiorowski
ERA: 7.28 ERA: 1.57
WHIP: 1.56 WHIP: 0.77
K/9: 7.95 K/9: 13.54
BB/9: 1.91 BB/9: 2.19
FIP: 4.74 FIP: 1.84
IP: 94.0 IP: 115.0
xERA: 5.65 xERA: 2.02
xwOBA: 0.36 xwOBA: 0.221
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL MIL Lg Avg
Record 42-64 65-39
R/Game 4.76 5.04 4.50
RA/Game 5.72 3.76 4.50
OPS 0.743 0.735 0.720
wOBA 0.320 0.316 0.310
ERA 5.49 3.44 4.20
FIP 4.70 3.41 4.05
WHIP 1.52 1.17 1.30
K/9 7.27 9.78 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.417 0.631 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.09 3.42 4.26
BP FIP 4.36 3.59 4.09
BP WHIP 1.53 1.28
BP K/9 7.62 9.13
BP Quality* 53.6 42.3 46.4
BP IP 366.0 334.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tanner Gordon (35 pitches yesterday)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Lance McCullers Jr. (47 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Sterlin Thompson
Sterlin Thompson Outfielder OPS: 0.689 (69 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.8% of full strength
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0107 (Temp: 1.0186 | Wind: 0.9922)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 3.1 - MIL 6.5
Simulated Avg: COL 3.1 - MIL 6.5
Win Probability: COL 20.3% - MIL 79.7%
Fair Moneyline: COL +392 / MIL -392
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 7.5: 65.3%
Under 7.5: 34.7%
COL +1.5: 33.5%
MIL -1.5: 66.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 1.3 - MIL 3.8
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 1.3 - MIL 3.8
F5 Win Prob: COL 14.8% - MIL 85.2% (Tie: 11.8%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +576 / MIL -576
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +282 +392 -5.9%
MIL ML -362 -392 +1.3%
COL +1.5 +135 +198 -9.0%
MIL -1.5 -163 -198 +4.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +12.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -17.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00972
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | July 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andrew Abbott Home: Kyle Leahy
ERA: 3.89 ERA: 3.59
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 7.3 K/9: 7.46
BB/9: 4.05 BB/9: 3.12
FIP: 4.7 FIP: 3.85
IP: 111.0 IP: 95.3
xERA: 4.6 xERA: 5.26
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.349
Pitcher Edge: STL (Kyle Leahy)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN STL Lg Avg
Record 48-55 53-51
R/Game 4.15 4.45 4.50
RA/Game 4.81 4.44 4.50
OPS 0.705 0.698 0.720
wOBA 0.305 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.55 4.13 4.20
FIP 4.67 3.95 4.05
WHIP 1.42 1.33 1.30
K/9 8.16 7.70 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.433 0.501 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.81 4.25 4.26
BP FIP 5.03 4.00 4.09
BP WHIP 1.47 1.35
BP K/9 8.33 7.98
BP Quality* 55.3 47.8 46.4
BP IP 381.3 368.7
Bullpen Edge: STL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Chase Petty (30 pitches yesterday)
STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Sal Stewart, Blake Dunn, Tyler Stephenson
Sal Stewart First Base OPS: 0.795 (395 AB)
Blake Dunn Outfielder OPS: 0.722 (142 AB)
Tyler Stephenson Catcher OPS: 0.715 (249 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.7% of full strength
STL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Lars Nootbaar, Bryan Torres, Nathan Church
Lars Nootbaar Outfielder OPS: 0.715 (132 AB)
Bryan Torres Outfielder OPS: 0.707 (74 AB)
Nathan Church Outfielder OPS: 0.627 (262 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 100°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Hot (100°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0418 (Temp: 1.0414 | Wind: 1.0004)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 4.0 - STL 5.0
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.0 - STL 5.0
Win Probability: CIN 40.1% - STL 59.9%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +149 / STL -149
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.5: 51.8%
Under 8.5: 48.2%
CIN +1.5: 56.3%
STL -1.5: 43.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.2 - STL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.3 - STL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CIN 43.9% - STL 56.1% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +128 / STL -128
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +113 +149 -6.8%
STL ML -136 -149 +2.3%
CIN +1.5 -184 -129 -8.5%
STL -1.5 +152 +129 +4.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -0.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | July 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Logan Gilbert Home: Jacob deGrom
ERA: 3.38 ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 0.98 WHIP: 1.05
K/9: 9.68 K/9: 10.94
BB/9: 1.88 BB/9: 2.05
FIP: 3.2 FIP: 3.33
IP: 120.0 IP: 105.3
xERA: 3.73 xERA: 3.52
xwOBA: 0.299 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA TEX Lg Avg
Record 51-54 53-51
R/Game 4.00 4.22 4.50
RA/Game 3.90 4.44 4.50
OPS 0.684 0.726 0.720
wOBA 0.299 0.314 0.310
ERA 3.65 4.29 4.20
FIP 3.45 3.97 4.05
WHIP 1.18 1.27 1.30
K/9 8.64 8.68 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.511 0.477 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.45 4.66 4.26
BP FIP 3.52 4.17 4.09
BP WHIP 1.29 1.32
BP K/9 8.55 7.82
BP Quality* 42.2 48.0 46.4
BP IP 294.7 295.7
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cole Wilcox (32 pitches yesterday)
TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 98°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (98°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0166 (Temp: 1.0397 | Wind: 0.9777)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 3.9 - TEX 4.0
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.9 - TEX 4.0
Win Probability: SEA 48.7% - TEX 51.3%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +105 / TEX -105
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.0: 50.1%
Under 7.0: 39.5%
SEA -1.5: 31.7%
TEX +1.5: 68.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.0 - TEX 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.0 - TEX 2.1
F5 Win Prob: SEA 48.0% - TEX 52.0% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +108 / TEX -108
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -109 +105 -3.5%
TEX ML -110 -105 -1.1%
SEA -1.5 +165 +216 -6.1%
TEX +1.5 -201 -216 +1.5%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -2.3%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -12.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | July 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: José Soriano Home: Carson Whisenhunt
ERA: 3.43 ERA: 3.38
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 9.31 K/9: 5.06
BB/9: 4.12 BB/9: 5.06
FIP: 3.73 FIP: 4.88
IP: 118.0 IP: 10.7
xERA: 4.38 xERA: 5.58
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.358
Pitcher Edge: LAA (José Soriano)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA SF Lg Avg
Record 41-64 44-60
R/Game 4.29 4.16 4.50
RA/Game 4.91 4.70 4.50
OPS 0.703 0.726 0.720
wOBA 0.305 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.59 4.39 4.20
FIP 4.13 4.13 4.05
WHIP 1.37 1.35 1.30
K/9 9.00 7.74 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.438 0.445 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.38 4.57 4.26
BP FIP 4.11 4.32 4.09
BP WHIP 1.36 1.46
BP K/9 9.68 7.79
BP Quality* 51.4 49.8 46.4
BP IP 361.7 340.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Brent Suter (B2B, 44 pitches)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 19 mph (gusts 29 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), strong crosswind (19 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9685 (Temp: 0.9956 | Wind: 0.9728)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 3.9 - SF 3.9
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.9 - SF 3.9
Win Probability: LAA 49.2% - SF 50.8%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +103 / SF -103
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.5: 40.0%
Under 8.5: 60.0%
LAA -1.5: 32.1%
SF +1.5: 67.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 2.1 - SF 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.0 - SF 2.0
F5 Win Prob: LAA 51.0% - SF 49.0% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA -104 / SF +104
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML -114 +103 -4.1%
SF ML -105 -103 -0.4%
LAA -1.5 +151 +212 -7.7%
SF +1.5 -183 -212 +3.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -12.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +7.6%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.6%
Fair ML: -150 | Kelly: 3.99%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00973
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | July 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Will Warren Home: Cristopher Sánchez
ERA: 4.0 ERA: 2.65
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 8.82 K/9: 10.24
BB/9: 3.09 BB/9: 1.7
FIP: 4.01 FIP: 2.56
IP: 99.0 IP: 132.7
xERA: 4.5 xERA: 3.32
xwOBA: 0.326 xwOBA: 0.283
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY PHI Lg Avg
Record 59-45 56-49
R/Game 4.65 4.28 4.50
RA/Game 3.78 4.45 4.50
OPS 0.731 0.700 0.720
wOBA 0.313 0.301 0.310
ERA 3.33 4.21 4.20
FIP 3.55 3.66 4.05
WHIP 1.18 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.97 9.92 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.594 0.482 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.09 4.55 4.26
BP FIP 3.63 3.66 4.09
BP WHIP 1.19 1.38
BP K/9 8.43 10.33
BP Quality* 40.7 49.7 46.4
BP IP 376.0 306.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brian Keller (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9963 (Temp: 1.0107 | Wind: 0.9858)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 3.9 - PHI 4.2
Simulated Avg: NYY 3.9 - PHI 4.2
Win Probability: NYY 46.6% - PHI 53.4%
Fair Moneyline: NYY +115 / PHI -115
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.0: 43.5%
Under 8.0: 46.9%
NYY +1.5: 63.8%
PHI -1.5: 36.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 1.8 - PHI 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 1.8 - PHI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: NYY 37.3% - PHI 62.7% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY +168 / PHI -168
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML +162 +115 +8.4%
PHI ML -198 -115 -13.0%
NYY +1.5 -143 -176 +5.0%
PHI -1.5 +119 +176 -9.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -8.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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