2026-07-27
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-27
Games: 12 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | July 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: George Kirby Home: Kumar Rocker
ERA: 3.57 ERA: 4.13
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 8.07 K/9: 8.06
BB/9: 1.94 BB/9: 3.38
FIP: 3.19 FIP: 4.06
IP: 116.0 IP: 96.0
xERA: 3.74 xERA: 4.6
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: SEA (George Kirby)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA TEX Lg Avg
Record 52-54 53-52
R/Game 4.02 4.22 4.51
RA/Game 3.91 4.46 4.51
OPS 0.687 0.724 0.721
wOBA 0.300 0.313 0.310
ERA 3.65 4.30 4.20
FIP 3.44 3.97 4.05
WHIP 1.18 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.67 8.66 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.513 0.475 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.44 4.69 4.27
BP FIP 3.50 4.23 4.09
BP WHIP 1.28 1.32
BP K/9 8.70 7.82
BP Quality* 41.9 55.8 46.4
BP IP 298.0 299.3
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Winn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ben Peoples (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 4.6 - TEX 3.9
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.6 - TEX 3.9
Win Probability: SEA 55.9% - TEX 44.1%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -127 / TEX +127
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.0: 46.9%
Under 8.0: 43.8%
SEA -1.5: 39.6%
TEX +1.5: 60.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.4 - TEX 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.4 - TEX 2.1
F5 Win Prob: SEA 55.4% - TEX 44.6% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -124 / TEX +124
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -135 -127 -1.6%
TEX ML +112 +127 -3.0%
SEA -1.5 +130 +153 -3.9%
TEX +1.5 -157 -153 -0.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | July 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Bradish Home: Keider Montero
ERA: 3.49 ERA: 3.14
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 0.96
K/9: 8.74 K/9: 6.62
BB/9: 4.05 BB/9: 1.87
FIP: 3.89 FIP: 3.48
IP: 113.3 IP: 106.0
xERA: 3.85 xERA: 3.38
xwOBA: 0.304 xwOBA: 0.286
Pitcher Edge: DET (Keider Montero)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL DET Lg Avg
Record 51-55 50-56
R/Game 4.56 4.20 4.51
RA/Game 4.69 3.93 4.51
OPS 0.717 0.710 0.721
wOBA 0.310 0.307 0.310
ERA 4.12 3.61 4.20
FIP 4.03 3.68 4.05
WHIP 1.33 1.22 1.31
K/9 7.99 8.59 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.487 0.530 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.02 3.96 4.27
BP FIP 4.00 4.11 4.09
BP WHIP 1.27 1.35
BP K/9 8.57 8.51
BP Quality* 52.0 48.6 46.4
BP IP 373.7 377.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Albert Suárez (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brenan Hanifee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ty Madden (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.0 - DET 4.2
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.0 - DET 4.2
Win Probability: BAL 47.3% - DET 52.7%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +111 / DET -111
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.5: 44.3%
Under 8.5: 55.7%
BAL -1.5: 30.8%
DET +1.5: 69.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.0 - DET 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.0 - DET 2.1
F5 Win Prob: BAL 47.8% - DET 52.2% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +109 / DET -109
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML -101 +111 -2.9%
DET ML -119 -111 -1.6%
BAL -1.5 +161 +225 -7.6%
DET +1.5 -196 -225 +3.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +3.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | July 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Merrill Kelly Home: Mitch Keller
ERA: 5.12 ERA: 4.9
WHIP: 1.48 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 5.64 K/9: 6.9
BB/9: 3.56 BB/9: 3.07
FIP: 5.79 FIP: 4.15
IP: 103.7 IP: 108.3
xERA: 7.25 xERA: 5.23
xwOBA: 0.4 xwOBA: 0.349
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Mitch Keller)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI PIT Lg Avg
Record 55-51 54-52
R/Game 4.52 5.22 4.51
RA/Game 4.55 4.84 4.51
OPS 0.709 0.760 0.721
wOBA 0.305 0.329 0.310
ERA 4.27 4.32 4.20
FIP 4.36 3.74 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.32 1.31
K/9 6.86 9.30 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.497 0.534 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.83 4.58 4.27
BP FIP 3.75 4.36 4.09
BP WHIP 1.20 1.44
BP K/9 7.62 8.94
BP Quality* 43.9 52.4 46.4
BP IP 345.0 330.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carmen Mlodzinski (33 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9998 (Temp: 1.0237 | Wind: 0.9767)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 4.9 - PIT 6.5
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.9 - PIT 6.5
Win Probability: ARI 36.6% - PIT 63.4%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +173 / PIT -173
Avg Total Runs: 11.4
Over 9.5: 61.9%
Under 9.5: 38.1%
ARI -1.5: 24.8%
PIT +1.5: 75.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 2.7 - PIT 4.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.7 - PIT 4.2
F5 Win Prob: ARI 32.3% - PIT 67.7% (Tie: 12.1%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +209 / PIT -209
F5 Avg Total: 6.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML -105 +173 -14.6%
PIT ML -115 -173 +9.9%
ARI -1.5 +157 +303 -14.1%
PIT +1.5 -191 -303 +9.5%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +9.5%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -14.3%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.5%
Fair ML: -162 | Kelly: 4.99%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00974
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | July 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zack Wheeler Home: Tyler Phillips
ERA: 2.16 ERA: 3.52
WHIP: 0.88 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 10.53 K/9: 6.58
BB/9: 1.98 BB/9: 4.08
FIP: 2.85 FIP: 4.47
IP: 100.0 IP: 79.3
xERA: 2.6 xERA: 4.76
xwOBA: 0.252 xwOBA: 0.335
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Zack Wheeler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI MIA Lg Avg
Record 57-49 52-54
R/Game 4.34 4.38 4.51
RA/Game 4.44 4.36 4.51
OPS 0.704 0.729 0.721
wOBA 0.303 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.21 4.09 4.20
FIP 3.65 3.87 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.26 1.31
K/9 9.95 8.57 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.489 0.502 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.52 4.42 4.27
BP FIP 3.63 3.70 4.09
BP WHIP 1.38 1.27
BP K/9 10.41 9.37
BP Quality* 49.4 50.5 46.4
BP IP 308.7 305.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Chase Shugart (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Lake Bachar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 18%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0043 (Temp: 1.0076 | Wind: 0.9966)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 4.2 - MIA 3.3
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.2 - MIA 3.3
Win Probability: PHI 59.4% - MIA 40.6%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -146 / MIA +146
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 7.5: 47.2%
Under 7.5: 52.8%
PHI -1.5: 41.4%
MIA +1.5: 58.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.3 - MIA 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.3 - MIA 1.4
F5 Win Prob: PHI 67.7% - MIA 32.3% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -210 / MIA +210
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -186 -146 -5.6%
MIA ML +153 +146 +1.1%
PHI -1.5 -108 +142 -10.5%
MIA +1.5 -111 -142 +6.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -5.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +0.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | July 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Max Scherzer Home: Andrew Alvarez
ERA: 10.23 ERA: 4.22
WHIP: 1.73 WHIP: 1.5
K/9: 5.73 K/9: 9.28
BB/9: 4.5 BB/9: 4.22
FIP: 8.65 FIP: 2.93
IP: 22.0 IP: 53.3
xERA: 6.31 xERA: 4.57
xwOBA: 0.378 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Andrew Alvarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR WSH Lg Avg
Record 48-58 54-52
R/Game 3.92 5.51 4.51
RA/Game 4.51 5.23 4.51
OPS 0.682 0.776 0.721
wOBA 0.294 0.331 0.310
ERA 4.16 4.78 4.20
FIP 3.87 4.54 4.05
WHIP 1.31 1.40 1.31
K/9 9.04 7.84 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.437 0.524 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.52 5.95 4.27
BP FIP 3.31 5.19 4.09
BP WHIP 1.32 1.60
BP K/9 9.10 8.39
BP Quality* 43.0 65.2 46.4
BP IP 230.3 354.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adam Macko (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tom Cosgrove (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley Cornelio (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Max Kranick (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0212 (Temp: 1.0220 | Wind: 0.9991)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 4.3 - WSH 7.3
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.3 - WSH 7.3
Win Probability: TOR 26.0% - WSH 74.0%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +285 / WSH -285
Avg Total Runs: 11.6
Over 9.5: 62.7%
Under 9.5: 37.3%
TOR -1.5: 15.9%
WSH +1.5: 84.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.0 - WSH 4.8
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.0 - WSH 4.9
F5 Win Prob: TOR 17.2% - WSH 82.8% (Tie: 9.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +482 / WSH -482
F5 Avg Total: 6.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML -101 +285 -24.3%
WSH ML -120 -285 +19.5%
TOR -1.5 +156 +528 -23.1%
WSH +1.5 -190 -528 +18.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +10.3%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -15.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -120 | Edge: 19.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00975
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | July 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Slade Cecconi Home: Chase Burns
ERA: 4.6 ERA: 2.42
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 7.12 K/9: 10.37
BB/9: 2.95 BB/9: 3.26
FIP: 4.38 FIP: 3.33
IP: 103.7 IP: 107.7
xERA: 4.7 xERA: 3.14
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.276
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Chase Burns)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE CIN Lg Avg
Record 54-53 49-55
R/Game 3.93 4.15 4.51
RA/Game 4.09 4.79 4.51
OPS 0.680 0.705 0.721
wOBA 0.295 0.305 0.310
ERA 3.75 4.52 4.20
FIP 3.78 4.66 4.05
WHIP 1.27 1.42 1.31
K/9 9.25 8.15 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.481 0.435 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.76 4.76 4.27
BP FIP 3.58 5.00 4.09
BP WHIP 1.32 1.47
BP K/9 10.09 8.34
BP Quality* 41.9 58.0 46.4
BP IP 358.7 385.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 17%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0123 (Temp: 1.0284 | Wind: 0.9844)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 3.9 - CIN 4.6
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.9 - CIN 4.6
Win Probability: CLE 42.7% - CIN 57.3%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +134 / CIN -134
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.5: 47.4%
Under 8.5: 52.6%
CLE +1.5: 59.5%
CIN -1.5: 40.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 1.7 - CIN 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.7 - CIN 2.7
F5 Win Prob: CLE 32.2% - CIN 67.8% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +211 / CIN -211
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML +138 +134 +0.7%
CIN ML -167 -134 -5.3%
CLE +1.5 -149 -147 -0.3%
CIN -1.5 +124 +147 -4.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +0.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets
Regular Season | July 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Martín Pérez Home: Zac Thornton
ERA: 3.38 ERA: 1.93
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 0.86
K/9: 6.86 K/9: 6.56
BB/9: 3.8 BB/9: 2.31
FIP: 4.37 FIP: 2.97
IP: 85.3 IP: 23.3
xERA: 4.57 xERA: 4.21
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.317
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Zac Thornton)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL NYM Lg Avg
Record 62-43 44-62
R/Game 4.95 4.08 4.51
RA/Game 3.93 4.66 4.51
OPS 0.733 0.685 0.721
wOBA 0.315 0.296 0.310
ERA 3.64 4.19 4.20
FIP 4.00 3.85 4.05
WHIP 1.24 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.69 9.17 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.604 0.439 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.49 3.62 4.27
BP FIP 3.73 3.85 4.09
BP WHIP 1.17 1.24
BP K/9 8.95 9.26
BP Quality* 45.1 45.2 46.4
BP IP 335.0 268.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Danny Young (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cionel Pérez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9974 (Temp: 1.0089 | Wind: 0.9887)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 4.0 - NYM 4.0
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.1 - NYM 4.0
Win Probability: ATL 50.6% - NYM 49.4%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -102 / NYM +102
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.5: 42.5%
Under 8.5: 57.5%
ATL -1.5: 33.7%
NYM +1.5: 66.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 2.1 - NYM 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.0 - NYM 2.2
F5 Win Prob: ATL 47.1% - NYM 52.9% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +112 / NYM -112
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -118 -102 -3.5%
NYM ML -102 +102 -1.1%
ATL -1.5 +141 +197 -7.8%
NYM +1.5 -171 -197 +3.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -9.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +5.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | July 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Max Fried Home: Noah Schultz
ERA: 2.97 ERA: 6.04
WHIP: 0.96 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 7.7 K/9: 7.78
BB/9: 2.7 BB/9: 4.61
FIP: 2.49 FIP: 4.97
IP: 66.7 IP: 56.7
xERA: 2.48 xERA: 6.03
xwOBA: 0.246 xwOBA: 0.371
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Max Fried)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY CWS Lg Avg
Record 59-46 55-49
R/Game 4.65 4.82 4.51
RA/Game 3.85 4.38 4.51
OPS 0.731 0.728 0.721
wOBA 0.313 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.41 4.10 4.20
FIP 3.55 4.04 4.05
WHIP 1.18 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.99 8.61 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.586 0.544 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.17 4.23 4.27
BP FIP 3.62 4.30 4.09
BP WHIP 1.20 1.33
BP K/9 8.43 8.48
BP Quality* 42.5 51.9 46.4
BP IP 381.0 302.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryan Yarbrough (51 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 18 mph (gusts 26 mph)
Precip Chance: 14%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), strong crosswind (18 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0167 (Temp: 1.0013 | Wind: 1.0153)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 5.8 - CWS 3.7
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.8 - CWS 3.7
Win Probability: NYY 68.5% - CWS 31.5%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -218 / CWS +218
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.5: 55.4%
Under 8.5: 44.6%
NYY -1.5: 53.8%
CWS +1.5: 46.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 3.5 - CWS 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 3.5 - CWS 1.7
F5 Win Prob: NYY 76.1% - CWS 23.9% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -318 / CWS +318
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -145 -218 +9.4%
CWS ML +120 +218 -14.0%
NYY -1.5 +118 -116 +7.9%
CWS +1.5 -142 +116 -12.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +3.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -7.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] New York Yankees -1.5 (Run Line) [+118]
Model: 53.8% | Market: 45.9% | Edge: 7.9%
Fair ML: -116 | Kelly: 3.65%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00976
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | July 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: David Peterson Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC STL Lg Avg
Record 59-46 53-52
R/Game 5.15 4.44 4.51
RA/Game 4.43 4.45 4.51
OPS 0.753 0.697 0.721
wOBA 0.326 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.23 4.13 4.20
FIP 4.59 3.95 4.05
WHIP 1.27 1.33 1.31
K/9 7.88 7.74 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.569 0.499 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.48 4.25 4.27
BP FIP 4.72 3.98 4.09
BP WHIP 1.38 1.35
BP K/9 8.01 7.99
BP Quality* 50.3 50.7 46.4
BP IP 393.3 372.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 98°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Hot (98°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0229 (Temp: 1.0397 | Wind: 0.9838)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 5.3 - STL 5.2
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.3 - STL 5.2
Win Probability: CHC 50.4% - STL 49.5%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -102 / STL +102
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 9.5: 55.5%
Under 9.5: 44.5%
CHC -1.5: 36.4%
STL +1.5: 63.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.9 - STL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.9 - STL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: CHC 48.6% - STL 51.4% (Tie: 14.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +106 / STL -106
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -120 -102 -4.1%
STL ML +100 +102 -0.5%
CHC -1.5 +125 +174 -8.0%
STL +1.5 -150 -174 +3.5%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +3.1%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -7.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | July 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tatsuya Imai Home: Walbert Ureña
ERA: 5.59 ERA: 2.78
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 11.02 K/9: 8.55
BB/9: 5.59 BB/9: 4.84
FIP: 4.53 FIP: 3.56
IP: 58.0 IP: 87.3
xERA: 4.89 xERA: 3.28
xwOBA: 0.339 xwOBA: 0.282
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Walbert Ureña)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU LAA Lg Avg
Record 52-55 42-64
R/Game 4.57 4.28 4.51
RA/Game 5.01 4.90 4.51
OPS 0.728 0.704 0.721
wOBA 0.311 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.74 4.56 4.20
FIP 4.60 4.12 4.05
WHIP 1.39 1.37 1.31
K/9 8.92 9.01 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.458 0.439 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.57 4.38 4.27
BP FIP 4.59 4.10 4.09
BP WHIP 1.35 1.36
BP K/9 9.18 9.70
BP Quality* 54.1 54.4 46.4
BP IP 384.3 365.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Samy Natera Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Suter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9915 (Temp: 1.0091 | Wind: 0.9825)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.2 - LAA 5.1
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.2 - LAA 5.1
Win Probability: HOU 41.1% - LAA 58.9%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +143 / LAA -143
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.5: 54.8%
Under 8.5: 45.2%
HOU -1.5: 26.8%
LAA +1.5: 73.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.0 - LAA 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.0 - LAA 2.8
F5 Win Prob: HOU 35.8% - LAA 64.2% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +180 / LAA -180
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML -112 +143 -11.7%
LAA ML -108 -143 +6.9%
HOU -1.5 +144 +273 -14.2%
LAA +1.5 -175 -273 +9.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +2.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -7.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (Run Line) [-175]
Model: 73.2% | Market: 63.6% | Edge: 9.5%
Fair ML: -273 | Kelly: 6.56%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00977
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics
Regular Season | July 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Payton Tolle Home: Jack Perkins
ERA: 3.31 ERA: 6.75
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 9.64 K/9: 10.91
BB/9: 2.61 BB/9: 3.45
FIP: 3.13 FIP: 4.1
IP: 89.7 IP: 62.7
xERA: 2.93 xERA: 4.18
xwOBA: 0.267 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Payton Tolle)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS ATH Lg Avg
Record 54-50 44-61
R/Game 4.21 4.46 4.51
RA/Game 3.77 5.65 4.51
OPS 0.706 0.727 0.721
wOBA 0.305 0.313 0.310
ERA 3.56 5.35 4.20
FIP 3.61 4.80 4.05
WHIP 1.23 1.49 1.31
K/9 8.62 8.60 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.551 0.393 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.60 5.69 4.27
BP FIP 3.74 4.72 4.09
BP WHIP 1.27 1.57
BP K/9 8.54 9.21
BP Quality* 46.4 60.2 46.4
BP IP 304.7 386.0
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Geoff Hartlieb (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Morales (87 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: José Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9775 (Temp: 0.9947 | Wind: 0.9827)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 5.0 - ATH 3.9
Simulated Avg: BOS 5.0 - ATH 3.9
Win Probability: BOS 60.8% - ATH 39.2%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -155 / ATH +155
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.5: 41.4%
Under 9.5: 58.6%
BOS -1.5: 44.7%
ATH +1.5: 55.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.7 - ATH 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.6 - ATH 1.9
F5 Win Prob: BOS 63.7% - ATH 36.3% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -176 / ATH +176
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -175 -155 -2.9%
ATH ML +144 +155 -1.8%
BOS -1.5 -109 +124 -7.4%
ATH +1.5 -110 -124 +2.9%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -10.9%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +6.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | July 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brandon Sproat Home: Tyler Mahle
ERA: 5.09 ERA: 5.31
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 9.45 K/9: 8.35
BB/9: 4.47 BB/9: 3.58
FIP: 4.89 FIP: 4.47
IP: 86.7 IP: 83.0
xERA: 4.83 xERA: 4.24
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.318
Pitcher Edge: SF (Tyler Mahle)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL SF Lg Avg
Record 66-39 44-61
R/Game 5.10 4.15 4.51
RA/Game 3.74 4.70 4.51
OPS 0.739 0.725 0.721
wOBA 0.317 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.43 4.38 4.20
FIP 3.40 4.14 4.05
WHIP 1.16 1.35 1.31
K/9 9.83 7.75 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.637 0.444 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.41 4.61 4.27
BP FIP 3.60 4.31 4.09
BP WHIP 1.27 1.46
BP K/9 9.12 7.88
BP Quality* 45.2 51.3 46.4
BP IP 337.7 330.0
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Grant Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Yoho (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Adrian Houser (53 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 20 mph (gusts 31 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), strong crosswind (20 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9629 (Temp: 0.9905 | Wind: 0.9721)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 5.0 - SF 4.2
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.0 - SF 4.2
Win Probability: MIL 57.3% - SF 42.7%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -134 / SF +134
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.5: 53.7%
Under 8.5: 46.3%
MIL -1.5: 41.9%
SF +1.5: 58.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.8 - SF 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.8 - SF 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIL 54.5% - SF 45.5% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -120 / SF +120
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -136 -134 -0.3%
SF ML +113 +134 -4.2%
MIL -1.5 +119 +139 -3.8%
SF +1.5 -143 -139 -0.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +1.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -6.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================