2026-07-28
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-28
Games: 16 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | July 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Slade Cecconi Home: Chase Burns
ERA: 4.6 ERA: 2.42
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 7.12 K/9: 10.37
BB/9: 2.95 BB/9: 3.26
FIP: 4.38 FIP: 3.33
IP: 103.7 IP: 107.7
xERA: 4.73 xERA: 3.16
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.276
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Chase Burns)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE CIN Lg Avg
Record 54-53 49-55
R/Game 3.93 4.15 4.51
RA/Game 4.09 4.79 4.51
OPS 0.680 0.705 0.721
wOBA 0.295 0.305 0.310
ERA 3.75 4.52 4.21
FIP 3.78 4.66 4.06
WHIP 1.27 1.42 1.31
K/9 9.25 8.15 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.481 0.435 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.76 4.76 4.27
BP FIP 3.58 5.00 4.09
BP WHIP 1.32 1.47
BP K/9 10.09 8.34
BP Quality* 41.9 53.5 46.4
BP IP 358.7 385.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Austin Hedges, Gabriel Arias, Rhys Hoskins
Austin Hedges Catcher OPS: 0.759 (139 AB)
Gabriel Arias Third Base OPS: 0.696 (111 AB)
Rhys Hoskins First Base OPS: 0.673 (236 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.9% of full strength
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Spencer Steer, Blake Dunn
Spencer Steer First Base OPS: 0.740 (340 AB)
Blake Dunn Outfielder OPS: 0.722 (142 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0518 (Temp: 1.0153 | Wind: 1.0359)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 3.7 - CIN 4.6
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.7 - CIN 4.6
Win Probability: CLE 40.2% - CIN 59.8%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +148 / CIN -148
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 9.0: 36.4%
Under 9.0: 54.7%
CLE +1.5: 57.3%
CIN -1.5: 42.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 1.7 - CIN 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.7 - CIN 2.7
F5 Win Prob: CLE 31.4% - CIN 68.6% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +219 / CIN -219
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML +135 +148 -2.3%
CIN ML -163 -148 -2.2%
CLE +1.5 -144 -134 -1.7%
CIN -1.5 +119 +134 -3.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -16.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +2.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds (Game 2)
Regular Season | July 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Gavin Williams Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE CIN Lg Avg
Record 54-53 49-55
R/Game 3.93 4.15 4.51
RA/Game 4.09 4.79 4.51
OPS 0.680 0.705 0.721
wOBA 0.295 0.305 0.310
ERA 3.75 4.52 4.21
FIP 3.78 4.66 4.06
WHIP 1.27 1.42 1.31
K/9 9.25 8.15 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.481 0.435 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.76 4.76 4.27
BP FIP 3.58 5.00 4.09
BP WHIP 1.32 1.47
BP K/9 10.09 8.34
BP Quality* 41.9 53.5 46.4
BP IP 358.7 385.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Austin Hedges, Gabriel Arias, Rhys Hoskins
Austin Hedges Catcher OPS: 0.759 (139 AB)
Gabriel Arias Third Base OPS: 0.696 (111 AB)
Rhys Hoskins First Base OPS: 0.673 (236 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.9% of full strength
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Spencer Steer, Blake Dunn
Spencer Steer First Base OPS: 0.740 (340 AB)
Blake Dunn Outfielder OPS: 0.722 (142 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0518 (Temp: 1.0153 | Wind: 1.0359)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 4.4 - CIN 4.2
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.4 - CIN 4.2
Win Probability: CLE 52.1% - CIN 47.9%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -109 / CIN +109
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 9.0: 38.4%
Under 9.0: 52.5%
CLE -1.5: 36.1%
CIN +1.5: 63.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 2.3 - CIN 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.3 - CIN 2.3
F5 Win Prob: CLE 50.7% - CIN 49.3% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -103 / CIN +103
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML -126 -109 -3.7%
CIN ML +104 +109 -1.1%
CLE -1.5 +119 +177 -9.6%
CIN +1.5 -143 -177 +5.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -14.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +0.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | July 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dean Kremer Home: Troy Melton
ERA: 5.06 ERA: 1.95
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 0.95
K/9: 9.56 K/9: 8.25
BB/9: 2.25 BB/9: 2.85
FIP: 5.79 FIP: 3.95
IP: 32.0 IP: 60.0
xERA: 4.67 xERA: 3.21
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.278
Pitcher Edge: DET (Troy Melton)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL DET Lg Avg
Record 52-55 50-57
R/Game 4.59 4.21 4.51
RA/Game 4.69 3.97 4.51
OPS 0.720 0.710 0.721
wOBA 0.311 0.307 0.310
ERA 4.12 3.63 4.21
FIP 4.00 3.72 4.06
WHIP 1.33 1.22 1.31
K/9 8.01 8.54 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.490 0.526 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.98 3.95 4.27
BP FIP 3.96 4.17 4.09
BP WHIP 1.26 1.35
BP K/9 8.62 8.45
BP Quality* 50.1 50.3 46.4
BP IP 378.0 382.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brenan Hanifee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Waguespack (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), wind out (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0605 (Temp: 1.0107 | Wind: 1.0494)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.2 - DET 5.3
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.2 - DET 5.3
Win Probability: BAL 39.6% - DET 60.4%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +153 / DET -153
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 9.0: 46.7%
Under 9.0: 44.5%
BAL +1.5: 55.2%
DET -1.5: 44.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.0 - DET 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.0 - DET 3.1
F5 Win Prob: BAL 33.2% - DET 66.8% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +201 / DET -201
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +119 +153 -6.1%
DET ML -144 -153 +1.4%
BAL +1.5 -164 -123 -6.9%
DET -1.5 +136 +123 +2.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -5.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -7.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | July 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brandon Pfaadt Home: Bubba Chandler
ERA: 4.43 ERA: 4.47
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 6.23 K/9: 8.05
BB/9: 2.77 BB/9: 5.01
FIP: 4.24 FIP: 4.27
IP: 65.0 IP: 100.7
xERA: 4.18 xERA: 4.01
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI PIT Lg Avg
Record 55-52 55-52
R/Game 4.50 5.20 4.51
RA/Game 4.53 4.81 4.51
OPS 0.706 0.758 0.721
wOBA 0.304 0.328 0.310
ERA 4.23 4.30 4.21
FIP 4.33 3.73 4.06
WHIP 1.30 1.31 1.31
K/9 6.88 9.28 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.496 0.535 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.82 4.53 4.27
BP FIP 3.72 4.33 4.09
BP WHIP 1.20 1.43
BP K/9 7.61 8.92
BP Quality* 45.2 53.5 46.4
BP IP 348.7 334.0
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Mason Montgomery (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Ron Marinaccio (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0054 (Temp: 1.0073 | Wind: 0.9981)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 4.6 - PIT 5.2
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.6 - PIT 5.2
Win Probability: ARI 44.2% - PIT 55.8%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +126 / PIT -126
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.0: 50.3%
Under 9.0: 41.2%
ARI -1.5: 30.1%
PIT +1.5: 69.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 2.5 - PIT 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.4 - PIT 2.9
F5 Win Prob: ARI 42.7% - PIT 57.3% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +134 / PIT -134
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML -103 +126 -6.5%
PIT ML -117 -126 +1.8%
ARI -1.5 +157 +233 -8.9%
PIT +1.5 -192 -233 +4.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -2.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -11.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | July 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Griffin Jax
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX TB Lg Avg
Record 54-52 62-43
R/Game 4.25 4.51 4.51
RA/Game 4.44 4.11 4.51
OPS 0.728 0.736 0.721
wOBA 0.314 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.29 3.75 4.21
FIP 3.97 3.98 4.06
WHIP 1.27 1.16 1.31
K/9 8.67 8.10 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.479 0.542 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.68 4.07 4.27
BP FIP 4.21 4.25 4.09
BP WHIP 1.32 1.21
BP K/9 7.82 8.42
BP Quality* 52.7 48.3 46.4
BP IP 301.7 320.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Robby Ahlstrom (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Ben Peoples (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 4.2 - TB 4.7
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.2 - TB 4.7
Win Probability: TEX 44.6% - TB 55.4%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +124 / TB -124
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 50.1%
Under 8.0: 40.4%
TEX +1.5: 60.9%
TB -1.5: 39.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 2.4 - TB 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.3 - TB 2.4
F5 Win Prob: TEX 48.2% - TB 51.8% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +107 / TB -107
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML +148 +124 +4.3%
TB ML -180 -124 -8.9%
TEX +1.5 -143 -156 +2.1%
TB -1.5 +119 +156 -6.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -2.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -12.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | July 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Aaron Nola Home: Sandy Alcantara
ERA: 5.82 ERA: 4.01
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 9.3 K/9: 6.89
BB/9: 2.99 BB/9: 2.38
FIP: 5.03 FIP: 3.9
IP: 108.3 IP: 143.7
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 3.77
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.3
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Sandy Alcantara)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI MIA Lg Avg
Record 57-50 53-54
R/Game 4.36 4.41 4.51
RA/Game 4.48 4.38 4.51
OPS 0.706 0.733 0.721
wOBA 0.304 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.25 4.11 4.21
FIP 3.66 3.87 4.06
WHIP 1.31 1.26 1.31
K/9 9.95 8.58 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.488 0.503 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.53 4.48 4.27
BP FIP 3.62 3.68 4.09
BP WHIP 1.39 1.28
BP K/9 10.32 9.37
BP Quality* 51.0 49.2 46.4
BP IP 314.0 309.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kyle Backhus (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John King (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 13%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9986 (Temp: 1.0153 | Wind: 0.9835)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 3.9 - MIA 4.8
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.9 - MIA 4.8
Win Probability: PHI 40.6% - MIA 59.4%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +147 / MIA -147
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.0: 48.5%
Under 8.0: 42.1%
PHI -1.5: 25.7%
MIA +1.5: 74.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.1 - MIA 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.1 - MIA 2.7
F5 Win Prob: PHI 39.0% - MIA 61.0% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +156 / MIA -156
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -107 +147 -11.1%
MIA ML -112 -147 +6.6%
PHI -1.5 +154 +290 -13.7%
MIA +1.5 -187 -290 +9.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -3.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -10.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | July 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane Bieber Home: Cade Cavalli
ERA: 4.7 ERA: 3.58
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 6.46 K/9: 10.33
BB/9: 3.52 BB/9: 2.77
FIP: 5.8 FIP: 2.78
IP: 30.7 IP: 110.7
xERA: 7.26 xERA: 3.96
xwOBA: 0.399 xwOBA: 0.307
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Cade Cavalli)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR WSH Lg Avg
Record 49-58 54-53
R/Game 3.92 5.48 4.51
RA/Game 4.49 5.21 4.51
OPS 0.682 0.775 0.721
wOBA 0.294 0.331 0.310
ERA 4.14 4.76 4.21
FIP 3.86 4.55 4.06
WHIP 1.31 1.40 1.31
K/9 9.08 7.79 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.438 0.523 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.50 5.94 4.27
BP FIP 3.31 5.21 4.09
BP WHIP 1.32 1.60
BP K/9 9.23 8.31
BP Quality* 41.4 62.3 46.4
BP IP 234.0 357.3
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Adam Macko (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Andrew Alvarez (80 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 65%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), wind in (10 mph) | Rain likely (65%)
Weather Factor: 0.9752 (Temp: 1.0034 | Wind: 0.9718)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.8 - WSH 6.5
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.8 - WSH 6.5
Win Probability: TOR 26.7% - WSH 73.3%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +274 / WSH -274
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 8.5: 61.3%
Under 8.5: 38.7%
TOR +1.5: 40.4%
WSH -1.5: 59.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 1.7 - WSH 4.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.6 - WSH 4.2
F5 Win Prob: TOR 17.2% - WSH 82.8% (Tie: 10.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +483 / WSH -483
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +119 +274 -18.9%
WSH ML -143 -274 +14.4%
TOR +1.5 -175 +148 -23.3%
WSH -1.5 +144 -148 +18.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +8.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -13.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -143 | Edge: 14.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00978
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets
Regular Season | July 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chris Sale Home: Christian Scott
ERA: 2.19 ERA: 3.13
WHIP: 1.05 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 10.86 K/9: 11.08
BB/9: 2.11 BB/9: 4.12
FIP: 2.33 FIP: 3.45
IP: 111.0 IP: 63.3
xERA: 3.18 xERA: 4.01
xwOBA: 0.277 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Chris Sale)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL NYM Lg Avg
Record 62-44 45-62
R/Game 4.93 4.17 4.51
RA/Game 4.03 4.64 4.51
OPS 0.731 0.694 0.721
wOBA 0.314 0.299 0.310
ERA 3.74 4.18 4.21
FIP 4.05 3.85 4.06
WHIP 1.26 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.68 9.17 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.592 0.451 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.75 3.60 4.27
BP FIP 3.87 3.82 4.09
BP WHIP 1.21 1.24
BP K/9 8.95 9.29
BP Quality* 43.9 44.9 46.4
BP IP 338.0 270.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Connor Thomas (78 pitches yesterday)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Duarte (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 55%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9915 (Temp: 1.0031 | Wind: 0.9884)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.2 - NYM 3.1
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.2 - NYM 3.1
Win Probability: ATL 62.1% - NYM 37.9%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -164 / NYM +164
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 7.5: 44.3%
Under 7.5: 55.7%
ATL -1.5: 43.8%
NYM +1.5: 56.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.2 - NYM 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.2 - NYM 1.4
F5 Win Prob: ATL 66.7% - NYM 33.3% (Tie: 19.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -200 / NYM +200
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -163 -164 +0.2%
NYM ML +135 +164 -4.7%
ATL -1.5 +109 +128 -4.0%
NYM +1.5 -131 -128 -0.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -8.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +3.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | July 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Seth Lugo Home: Taj Bradley
ERA: 4.36 ERA: 3.69
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 7.19 K/9: 10.13
BB/9: 2.91 BB/9: 3.61
FIP: 4.13 FIP: 3.98
IP: 117.7 IP: 114.7
xERA: 5.44 xERA: 3.96
xwOBA: 0.354 xwOBA: 0.307
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC MIN Lg Avg
Record 45-62 53-54
R/Game 4.21 4.78 4.51
RA/Game 5.10 5.03 4.51
OPS 0.712 0.728 0.721
wOBA 0.306 0.315 0.310
ERA 4.85 4.67 4.21
FIP 4.63 4.22 4.06
WHIP 1.43 1.38 1.31
K/9 7.68 8.37 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.412 0.476 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.43 4.89 4.27
BP FIP 5.17 4.28 4.09
BP WHIP 1.57 1.46
BP K/9 7.53 7.95
BP Quality* 57.3 52.0 46.4
BP IP 416.0 420.0
Bullpen Edge: MIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0168 (Temp: 1.0258 | Wind: 0.9912)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.3 - MIN 5.8
Simulated Avg: KC 4.2 - MIN 5.8
Win Probability: KC 36.0% - MIN 64.0%
Fair Moneyline: KC +178 / MIN -178
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 9.0: 51.4%
Under 9.0: 40.1%
KC +1.5: 51.1%
MIN -1.5: 48.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.2 - MIN 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.2 - MIN 3.0
F5 Win Prob: KC 37.3% - MIN 62.7% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +168 / MIN -168
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +135 +178 -6.6%
MIN ML -163 -178 +2.1%
KC +1.5 -155 -104 -9.7%
MIN -1.5 +128 +104 +5.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -1.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -12.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | July 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gerrit Cole Home: Anthony Kay
ERA: 3.92 ERA: 4.21
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 9.58 K/9: 7.32
BB/9: 1.74 BB/9: 3.66
FIP: 3.86 FIP: 4.54
IP: 62.0 IP: 98.3
xERA: 3.53 xERA: 5.34
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.351
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Gerrit Cole)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY CWS Lg Avg
Record 60-46 55-50
R/Game 4.69 4.82 4.51
RA/Game 3.86 4.42 4.51
OPS 0.731 0.729 0.721
wOBA 0.313 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.41 4.15 4.21
FIP 3.54 4.03 4.06
WHIP 1.19 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.99 8.62 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.588 0.540 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.14 4.31 4.27
BP FIP 3.60 4.31 4.09
BP WHIP 1.20 1.34
BP K/9 8.42 8.47
BP Quality* 46.8 55.2 46.4
BP IP 387.0 307.0
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Angel Chivilli (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Sean Newcomb (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Chris Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0419 (Temp: 0.9936 | Wind: 1.0485)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 5.5 - CWS 4.8
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.5 - CWS 4.8
Win Probability: NYY 56.4% - CWS 43.6%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -129 / CWS +129
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 8.0: 62.4%
Under 8.0: 29.7%
NYY -1.5: 42.1%
CWS +1.5: 57.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 3.0 - CWS 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 3.0 - CWS 2.5
F5 Win Prob: NYY 57.4% - CWS 42.6% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -135 / CWS +135
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -131 -129 -0.3%
CWS ML +109 +129 -4.3%
NYY -1.5 +129 +137 -1.5%
CWS +1.5 -155 -137 -2.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +10.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -22.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00979
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | July 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Colin Rea Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC STL Lg Avg
Record 60-46 53-53
R/Game 5.17 4.42 4.51
RA/Game 4.42 4.47 4.51
OPS 0.754 0.696 0.721
wOBA 0.326 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.22 4.16 4.21
FIP 4.59 3.96 4.06
WHIP 1.27 1.34 1.31
K/9 7.86 7.75 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.572 0.495 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 4.25 4.27
BP FIP 4.70 3.98 4.09
BP WHIP 1.38 1.35
BP K/9 8.01 7.99
BP Quality* 53.2 47.7 46.4
BP IP 396.7 372.7
Bullpen Edge: STL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Hunter Dobbins (85 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0621 (Temp: 1.0294 | Wind: 1.0317)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 5.4 - STL 5.6
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.4 - STL 5.6
Win Probability: CHC 47.9% - STL 52.1%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +109 / STL -109
Avg Total Runs: 11.0
Over 9.0: 58.7%
Under 9.0: 33.4%
CHC -1.5: 34.5%
STL +1.5: 65.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 3.0 - STL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 3.0 - STL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: CHC 47.9% - STL 52.1% (Tie: 13.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +109 / STL -109
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -114 +109 -5.4%
STL ML -105 -109 +0.9%
CHC -1.5 +144 +190 -6.5%
STL +1.5 -175 -190 +1.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +6.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -19.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | July 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Peter Lambert Home: Reid Detmers
ERA: 3.03 ERA: 4.05
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 8.63 K/9: 10.2
BB/9: 3.49 BB/9: 2.78
FIP: 3.8 FIP: 3.17
IP: 98.0 IP: 120.0
xERA: 3.48 xERA: 3.33
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: 0.283
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Reid Detmers)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU LAA Lg Avg
Record 53-55 42-65
R/Game 4.58 4.28 4.51
RA/Game 5.00 4.91 4.51
OPS 0.727 0.703 0.721
wOBA 0.310 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.72 4.55 4.21
FIP 4.60 4.12 4.06
WHIP 1.39 1.37 1.31
K/9 8.92 9.01 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.460 0.438 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.55 4.39 4.27
BP FIP 4.62 4.09 4.09
BP WHIP 1.35 1.37
BP K/9 9.12 9.72
BP Quality* 54.2 51.4 46.4
BP IP 387.7 368.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (48 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cristian Javier (70 pitches yesterday)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Bachman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9878 (Temp: 1.0052 | Wind: 0.9826)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.2 - LAA 4.2
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.2 - LAA 4.2
Win Probability: HOU 49.7% - LAA 50.3%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +101 / LAA -101
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.5: 46.6%
Under 8.5: 53.4%
HOU -1.5: 33.6%
LAA +1.5: 66.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.1 - LAA 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.1 - LAA 2.0
F5 Win Prob: HOU 51.5% - LAA 48.5% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -106 / LAA +106
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML -111 +101 -2.9%
LAA ML -108 -101 -1.6%
HOU -1.5 +153 +197 -5.9%
LAA +1.5 -186 -197 +1.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -5.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +1.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics
Regular Season | July 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jake Bennett Home: Gage Jump
ERA: 2.58 ERA: 4.42
WHIP: 0.94 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 6.37 K/9: 9.63
BB/9: 1.37 BB/9: 3.32
FIP: 3.02 FIP: 3.66
IP: 59.3 IP: 57.0
xERA: 3.16 xERA: 4.24
xwOBA: 0.276 xwOBA: 0.317
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Jake Bennett)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS ATH Lg Avg
Record 55-50 44-62
R/Game 4.21 4.43 4.51
RA/Game 3.75 5.63 4.51
OPS 0.706 0.724 0.721
wOBA 0.305 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.55 5.34 4.21
FIP 3.61 4.80 4.06
WHIP 1.22 1.48 1.31
K/9 8.66 8.58 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.552 0.392 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.57 5.69 4.27
BP FIP 3.71 4.73 4.09
BP WHIP 1.27 1.57
BP K/9 8.58 9.18
BP Quality* 43.1 58.8 46.4
BP IP 307.3 389.3
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Justin Slaten (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: José Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hayden Juenger (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9817 (Temp: 0.9986 | Wind: 0.9831)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 4.5 - ATH 3.6
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.5 - ATH 3.6
Win Probability: BOS 58.9% - ATH 41.1%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -143 / ATH +143
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 9.5: 34.9%
Under 9.5: 65.1%
BOS -1.5: 41.8%
ATH +1.5: 58.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.2 - ATH 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.2 - ATH 1.8
F5 Win Prob: BOS 59.0% - ATH 41.0% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -144 / ATH +144
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -150 -143 -1.1%
ATH ML +124 +143 -3.6%
BOS -1.5 +104 +139 -7.2%
ATH +1.5 -125 -139 +2.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -17.4%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +12.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 9.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00980
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | July 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael Lorenzen Home: Michael King
ERA: 6.53 ERA: 3.24
WHIP: 1.79 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 6.97 K/9: 7.77
BB/9: 3.49 BB/9: 3.7
FIP: 4.78 FIP: 3.8
IP: 100.7 IP: 119.3
xERA: 5.66 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.36 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: SD (Michael King)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL SD Lg Avg
Record 42-65 53-53
R/Game 4.74 4.17 4.51
RA/Game 5.77 4.37 4.51
OPS 0.741 0.692 0.721
wOBA 0.319 0.299 0.310
ERA 5.55 4.19 4.21
FIP 4.70 4.11 4.06
WHIP 1.52 1.33 1.31
K/9 7.23 8.31 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.411 0.479 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.14 3.36 4.27
BP FIP 4.35 3.19 4.09
BP WHIP 1.54 1.17
BP K/9 7.58 10.19
BP Quality* 52.3 39.0 46.4
BP IP 368.0 265.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9863 (Temp: 1.0003 | Wind: 0.9861)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.0 - SD 5.0
Simulated Avg: COL 4.0 - SD 5.0
Win Probability: COL 39.7% - SD 60.3%
Fair Moneyline: COL +152 / SD -152
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 51.3%
Under 8.5: 48.6%
COL +1.5: 56.0%
SD -1.5: 44.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.3 - SD 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.3 - SD 2.9
F5 Win Prob: COL 40.6% - SD 59.4% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +146 / SD -146
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +167 +152 +2.3%
SD ML -205 -152 -7.0%
COL +1.5 -130 -128 -0.5%
SD -1.5 +108 +128 -4.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -1.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | July 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Logan Henderson Home: Landen Roupp
ERA: 3.05 ERA: 3.93
WHIP: 0.94 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 11.03 K/9: 9.25
BB/9: 1.64 BB/9: 3.68
FIP: 2.89 FIP: 3.22
IP: 38.3 IP: 110.0
xERA: 2.88 xERA: 3.38
xwOBA: 0.264 xwOBA: 0.285
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Logan Henderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL SF Lg Avg
Record 66-40 45-61
R/Game 5.05 4.14 4.51
RA/Game 3.74 4.65 4.51
OPS 0.736 0.724 0.721
wOBA 0.316 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.42 4.34 4.21
FIP 3.41 4.12 4.06
WHIP 1.16 1.34 1.31
K/9 9.80 7.74 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.634 0.447 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.39 4.57 4.27
BP FIP 3.60 4.27 4.09
BP WHIP 1.27 1.45
BP K/9 9.09 7.92
BP Quality* 43.6 49.4 46.4
BP IP 339.7 333.0
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Garrett Stallings (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 18 mph (gusts 27 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), strong crosswind (18 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9699 (Temp: 0.9929 | Wind: 0.9768)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 4.2 - SF 3.1
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.2 - SF 3.1
Win Probability: MIL 61.9% - SF 38.1%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -163 / SF +163
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 7.5: 44.5%
Under 7.5: 55.5%
MIL -1.5: 43.6%
SF +1.5: 56.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.1 - SF 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.1 - SF 1.5
F5 Win Prob: MIL 62.6% - SF 37.4% (Tie: 19.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -168 / SF +168
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -156 -163 +1.0%
SF ML +129 +163 -5.6%
MIL -1.5 +114 +129 -3.1%
SF +1.5 -137 -129 -1.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -7.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +3.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | July 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Luis Castillo Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA LAD Lg Avg
Record 52-55 67-39
R/Game 4.01 5.15 4.51
RA/Game 3.93 3.69 4.51
OPS 0.686 0.771 0.721
wOBA 0.299 0.330 0.310
ERA 3.68 3.58 4.21
FIP 3.48 3.74 4.06
WHIP 1.18 1.14 1.31
K/9 8.69 9.13 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.509 0.648 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.40 4.19 4.27
BP FIP 3.46 3.90 4.09
BP WHIP 1.27 1.26
BP K/9 8.79 9.86
BP Quality* 41.5 44.4 46.4
BP IP 302.0 309.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cole Wilcox (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9922 (Temp: 0.9994 | Wind: 0.9928)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 3.7 - LAD 5.0
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.7 - LAD 5.0
Win Probability: SEA 36.9% - LAD 63.1%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +171 / LAD -171
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 9.5: 40.0%
Under 9.5: 60.1%
SEA +1.5: 53.4%
LAD -1.5: 46.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.1 - LAD 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.1 - LAD 2.9
F5 Win Prob: SEA 37.0% - LAD 63.0% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +171 / LAD -171
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML +158 +171 -1.9%
LAD ML -193 -171 -2.8%
SEA +1.5 -126 -115 -2.3%
LAD -1.5 +104 +115 -2.4%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -12.4%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +7.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 9.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.1% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.7%
Fair ML: -150 | Kelly: 4.03%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00981