2026-07-29
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-29
Games: 16 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | July 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jesús Luzardo Home: Ryan Gusto
ERA: 3.31 ERA: 4.5
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 11.18 K/9: 8.21
BB/9: 2.8 BB/9: 2.91
FIP: 2.72 FIP: 3.39
IP: 122.3 IP: 34.0
xERA: 2.86 xERA: 4.36
xwOBA: 0.263 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI MIA Lg Avg
Record 57-51 54-54
R/Game 4.32 4.38 4.51
RA/Game 4.44 4.34 4.51
OPS 0.702 0.732 0.721
wOBA 0.302 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.22 4.07 4.20
FIP 3.67 3.85 4.05
WHIP 1.31 1.25 1.31
K/9 9.93 8.56 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.487 0.504 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.50 4.45 4.26
BP FIP 3.63 3.67 4.08
BP WHIP 1.39 1.28
BP K/9 10.28 9.37
BP Quality* 49.5 50.6 46.4
BP IP 316.0 311.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Kyle Schwarber, Derek Hill
Kyle Schwarber Designated Hitter OPS: 0.910 (385 AB)
Derek Hill Outfielder OPS: 0.732 (144 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.3% of full strength
MIA (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Griffin Conine, Owen Caissie, Joe Mack
Griffin Conine Outfielder OPS: 0.889 (111 AB)
Owen Caissie Outfielder OPS: 0.756 (218 AB)
Joe Mack Catcher OPS: 0.724 (186 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9987 (Temp: 1.0256 | Wind: 0.9737)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 3.7 - MIA 3.2
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.7 - MIA 3.2
Win Probability: PHI 55.2% - MIA 44.8%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -123 / MIA +123
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 7.5: 41.0%
Under 7.5: 59.0%
PHI -1.5: 36.4%
MIA +1.5: 63.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.0 - MIA 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.0 - MIA 1.5
F5 Win Prob: PHI 61.2% - MIA 38.8% (Tie: 20.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -158 / MIA +158
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -175 -123 -8.4%
MIA ML +144 +123 +3.8%
PHI -1.5 -102 +175 -14.1%
MIA +1.5 -118 -175 +9.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -11.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +6.6%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Miami Marlins +1.5 (Run Line) [-118]
Model: 63.6% | Market: 54.1% | Edge: 9.5%
Fair ML: -175 | Kelly: 5.18%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00982
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | July 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Eduardo Rodriguez Home: Jared Jones
ERA: 2.64 ERA: 3.72
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.02
K/9: 6.31 K/9: 10.37
BB/9: 3.23 BB/9: 2.54
FIP: 4.15 FIP: 3.34
IP: 122.7 IP: 46.0
xERA: 4.99 xERA: 3.13
xwOBA: 0.341 xwOBA: 0.275
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Jared Jones)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI PIT Lg Avg
Record 56-52 55-53
R/Game 4.53 5.21 4.51
RA/Game 4.56 4.84 4.51
OPS 0.708 0.759 0.721
wOBA 0.304 0.328 0.310
ERA 4.24 4.29 4.20
FIP 4.33 3.70 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.32 1.31
K/9 6.89 9.27 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.497 0.534 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.92 4.48 4.26
BP FIP 3.77 4.29 4.08
BP WHIP 1.21 1.43
BP K/9 7.66 8.93
BP Quality* 50.3 56.2 46.4
BP IP 353.7 339.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Ryan Thompson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Isaac Mattson (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ron Marinaccio (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: James McCann, Ryan Waldschmidt
James McCann Catcher OPS: 0.740 (83 AB)
Ryan Waldschmidt Outfielder OPS: 0.718 (145 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.2% of full strength
PIT (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Spencer Horwitz, Endy Rodríguez, Oneil Cruz, Konnor Griffin
Spencer Horwitz First Base OPS: 0.841 (246 AB)
Endy Rodríguez Catcher OPS: 0.834 (108 AB)
Oneil Cruz Outfielder OPS: 0.822 (250 AB)
Konnor Griffin Shortstop OPS: 0.736 (225 AB)
Run Adjustment: 88.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), crosswind (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0212 (Temp: 1.0081 | Wind: 1.0130)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 4.1 - PIT 4.8
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.1 - PIT 4.8
Win Probability: ARI 43.0% - PIT 57.0%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +132 / PIT -132
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 51.0%
Under 8.5: 49.0%
ARI +1.5: 59.3%
PIT -1.5: 40.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 1.9 - PIT 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 1.9 - PIT 2.5
F5 Win Prob: ARI 39.4% - PIT 60.6% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +154 / PIT -154
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +112 +132 -4.1%
PIT ML -135 -132 -0.5%
ARI +1.5 -182 -146 -5.2%
PIT -1.5 +150 +146 +0.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -1.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | July 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trey Yesavage Home: Zack Littell
ERA: 3.92 ERA: 5.17
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 9.21 K/9: 5.88
BB/9: 4.45 BB/9: 2.76
FIP: 4.06 FIP: 5.93
IP: 85.0 IP: 101.0
xERA: 3.33 xERA: 6.27
xwOBA: 0.283 xwOBA: 0.376
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Trey Yesavage)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR WSH Lg Avg
Record 49-59 55-53
R/Game 3.94 5.50 4.51
RA/Game 4.52 5.21 4.51
OPS 0.682 0.776 0.721
wOBA 0.295 0.331 0.310
ERA 4.17 4.75 4.20
FIP 3.89 4.56 4.05
WHIP 1.31 1.40 1.31
K/9 9.07 7.78 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.437 0.525 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.44 5.94 4.26
BP FIP 3.32 5.21 4.08
BP WHIP 1.31 1.59
BP K/9 9.20 8.32
BP Quality* 47.2 62.2 46.4
BP IP 240.7 360.3
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: CJ Van Eyk (69 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brendon Little (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adam Macko (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tom Cosgrove (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jesús Sánchez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Brandon Valenzuela
Jesús Sánchez Outfielder OPS: 0.753 (215 AB)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. First Base OPS: 0.702 (381 AB)
Brandon Valenzuela Catcher OPS: 0.701 (180 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.5% of full strength
WSH (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Joey Wiemer, Andrés Chaparro, Keibert Ruiz, José Tena, Dylan Crews
Joey Wiemer Outfielder OPS: 0.912 (70 AB)
Andrés Chaparro First Base OPS: 0.824 (76 AB)
Keibert Ruiz Catcher OPS: 0.746 (225 AB)
José Tena Designated Hitter OPS: 0.707 (185 AB)
Dylan Crews Outfielder OPS: 0.706 (210 AB)
Run Adjustment: 87.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), wind out (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0414 (Temp: 1.0196 | Wind: 1.0213)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 5.1 - WSH 4.8
Simulated Avg: TOR 5.1 - WSH 4.7
Win Probability: TOR 53.2% - WSH 46.8%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -114 / WSH +114
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.0: 49.8%
Under 9.0: 41.4%
TOR -1.5: 38.5%
WSH +1.5: 61.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.9 - WSH 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.9 - WSH 2.5
F5 Win Prob: TOR 56.8% - WSH 43.2% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -132 / WSH +132
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML -117 -114 -0.7%
WSH ML -103 +114 -4.0%
TOR -1.5 +130 +160 -4.9%
WSH +1.5 -157 -160 +0.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -2.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -11.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | July 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trevor Rogers Home: Tarik Skubal
ERA: 4.17 ERA: 2.7
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 0.92
K/9: 7.21 K/9: 11.0
BB/9: 2.78 BB/9: 1.3
FIP: 3.68 FIP: 2.53
IP: 103.7 IP: 90.0
xERA: 4.12 xERA: 2.9
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.265
Pitcher Edge: DET (Tarik Skubal)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL DET Lg Avg
Record 52-56 51-57
R/Game 4.55 4.30 4.51
RA/Game 4.78 3.94 4.51
OPS 0.717 0.717 0.721
wOBA 0.310 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.21 3.60 4.20
FIP 4.03 3.71 4.05
WHIP 1.35 1.22 1.31
K/9 8.01 8.52 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.477 0.540 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.05 3.93 4.26
BP FIP 3.98 4.16 4.08
BP WHIP 1.28 1.34
BP K/9 8.60 8.45
BP Quality* 49.1 48.6 46.4
BP IP 382.0 384.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Albert Suárez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Walker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ty Madden (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brenan Hanifee (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Colt Keith, Kerry Carpenter
Colt Keith Third Base OPS: 0.720 (286 AB)
Kerry Carpenter Outfielder OPS: 0.692 (231 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), crosswind (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0136 (Temp: 1.0150 | Wind: 0.9987)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 3.6 - DET 4.2
Simulated Avg: BAL 3.6 - DET 4.2
Win Probability: BAL 43.4% - DET 56.6%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +130 / DET -130
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.5: 50.1%
Under 7.5: 49.9%
BAL +1.5: 61.4%
DET -1.5: 38.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 1.6 - DET 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 1.6 - DET 2.2
F5 Win Prob: BAL 38.1% - DET 61.9% (Tie: 19.2%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +162 / DET -162
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +158 +130 +4.6%
DET ML -193 -130 -9.3%
BAL +1.5 -134 -159 +4.2%
DET -1.5 +112 +159 -8.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -2.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -2.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] ATL starter (id 700363) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (the model never uses prior-season data).
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets
Regular Season | July 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Player 700363 Home: Sean Manaea
ERA: 0.0 ERA: 4.52
WHIP: 0.0 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 0.0 K/9: 8.82
BB/9: 0.0 BB/9: 2.94
FIP: 0.0 FIP: 3.94
IP: 0.0 IP: 85.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.45
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Player 700363)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL NYM Lg Avg
Record 62-44 45-62
R/Game 4.93 4.17 4.51
RA/Game 4.03 4.64 4.51
OPS 0.731 0.694 0.721
wOBA 0.314 0.299 0.310
ERA 3.74 4.18 4.20
FIP 4.05 3.85 4.05
WHIP 1.26 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.68 9.17 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.592 0.451 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.75 3.60 4.26
BP FIP 3.87 3.82 4.08
BP WHIP 1.21 1.24
BP K/9 8.95 9.29
BP Quality* 42.4 41.9 46.4
BP IP 338.0 270.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Dominic Smith, Jim Jarvis
Dominic Smith Designated Hitter OPS: 0.715 (229 AB)
Jim Jarvis Shortstop OPS: 0.685 (64 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.1% of full strength
NYM (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Juan Soto, MJ Melendez
Juan Soto Outfielder OPS: 0.947 (293 AB)
MJ Melendez Designated Hitter OPS: 0.665 (120 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9918 (Temp: 1.0023 | Wind: 0.9896)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 4.4 - NYM 3.1
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.4 - NYM 3.1
Win Probability: ATL 63.9% - NYM 36.1%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -177 / NYM +177
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 8.5: 36.6%
Under 8.5: 63.4%
ATL -1.5: 45.7%
NYM +1.5: 54.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 2.6 - NYM 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.6 - NYM 1.5
F5 Win Prob: ATL 69.4% - NYM 30.6% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -227 / NYM +227
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -114 -177 +10.6%
NYM ML -106 +177 -15.3%
ATL -1.5 +141 +119 +4.2%
NYM +1.5 -171 -119 -8.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -15.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +11.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets (Game 2)
Regular Season | July 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chris Sale Home: Christian Scott
ERA: 2.19 ERA: 3.13
WHIP: 1.05 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 10.86 K/9: 11.08
BB/9: 2.11 BB/9: 4.12
FIP: 2.33 FIP: 3.45
IP: 111.0 IP: 63.3
xERA: 3.18 xERA: 4.01
xwOBA: 0.277 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Chris Sale)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL NYM Lg Avg
Record 62-44 45-62
R/Game 4.93 4.17 4.51
RA/Game 4.03 4.64 4.51
OPS 0.731 0.694 0.721
wOBA 0.314 0.299 0.310
ERA 3.74 4.18 4.20
FIP 4.05 3.85 4.05
WHIP 1.26 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.68 9.17 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.592 0.451 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.75 3.60 4.26
BP FIP 3.87 3.82 4.08
BP WHIP 1.21 1.24
BP K/9 8.95 9.29
BP Quality* 42.4 41.9 46.4
BP IP 338.0 270.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Dominic Smith, Jim Jarvis
Dominic Smith Designated Hitter OPS: 0.715 (229 AB)
Jim Jarvis Shortstop OPS: 0.685 (64 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.1% of full strength
NYM (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Juan Soto, MJ Melendez
Juan Soto Outfielder OPS: 0.947 (293 AB)
MJ Melendez Designated Hitter OPS: 0.665 (120 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9918 (Temp: 1.0023 | Wind: 0.9896)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 3.9 - NYM 2.8
Simulated Avg: ATL 3.9 - NYM 2.8
Win Probability: ATL 62.5% - NYM 37.5%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -167 / NYM +167
Avg Total Runs: 6.8
Over 7.5: 39.1%
Under 7.5: 60.9%
ATL -1.5: 43.0%
NYM +1.5: 57.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 2.1 - NYM 1.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.1 - NYM 1.3
F5 Win Prob: ATL 68.3% - NYM 31.7% (Tie: 20.1%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -216 / NYM +216
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -156 -167 +1.6%
NYM ML +129 +167 -6.2%
ATL -1.5 +113 +133 -4.0%
NYM +1.5 -136 -133 -0.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -13.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +8.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.5%
Fair ML: -156 | Kelly: 4.48%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00983
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | July 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane Drohan Home: Logan Webb
ERA: 3.51 ERA: 3.98
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 7.09
BB/9: 2.52 BB/9: 2.31
FIP: 2.89 FIP: 3.33
IP: 82.0 IP: 113.0
xERA: 3.33 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.283 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Shane Drohan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL SF Lg Avg
Record 67-40 45-62
R/Game 5.07 4.12 4.51
RA/Game 3.72 4.68 4.51
OPS 0.738 0.723 0.721
wOBA 0.317 0.307 0.310
ERA 3.41 4.38 4.20
FIP 3.41 4.12 4.05
WHIP 1.16 1.35 1.31
K/9 9.79 7.70 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.638 0.442 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.41 4.60 4.26
BP FIP 3.62 4.26 4.08
BP WHIP 1.27 1.46
BP K/9 9.05 7.85
BP Quality* 45.3 52.6 46.4
BP IP 343.0 338.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Grant Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Yoho (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: JT Brubaker (57 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jason Foley (33 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9817 (Temp: 1.0009 | Wind: 0.9809)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 4.6 - SF 3.3
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.6 - SF 3.3
Win Probability: MIL 63.2% - SF 36.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -172 / SF +172
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 7.5: 51.4%
Under 7.5: 48.6%
MIL -1.5: 45.8%
SF +1.5: 54.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.3 - SF 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.3 - SF 1.6
F5 Win Prob: MIL 62.3% - SF 37.7% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -165 / SF +165
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -130 -172 +6.7%
SF ML +108 +172 -11.3%
MIL -1.5 +136 +118 +3.5%
SF +1.5 -164 -118 -8.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -1.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -3.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | July 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gabriel Hughes Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL SD Lg Avg
Record 42-66 54-53
R/Game 4.76 4.21 4.51
RA/Game 5.79 4.39 4.51
OPS 0.742 0.696 0.721
wOBA 0.319 0.300 0.310
ERA 5.56 4.20 4.20
FIP 4.70 4.11 4.05
WHIP 1.53 1.33 1.31
K/9 7.22 8.33 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.411 0.480 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.13 3.34 4.26
BP FIP 4.35 3.17 4.08
BP WHIP 1.55 1.17
BP K/9 7.57 10.25
BP Quality* 55.4 40.3 46.4
BP IP 372.0 267.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Victor Vodnik (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9961 (Temp: 1.0118 | Wind: 0.9845)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.2 - SD 4.6
Simulated Avg: COL 4.2 - SD 4.6
Win Probability: COL 45.9% - SD 54.1%
Fair Moneyline: COL +118 / SD -118
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 49.6%
Under 8.0: 40.8%
COL +1.5: 62.5%
SD -1.5: 37.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.5 - SD 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.5 - SD 2.4
F5 Win Prob: COL 52.1% - SD 47.9% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: COL -109 / SD +109
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +124 +118 +1.3%
SD ML -149 -118 -5.8%
COL +1.5 -171 -166 -0.6%
SD -1.5 +141 +166 -4.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -2.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | July 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: MacKenzie Gore Home: Casey Legumina
ERA: 4.82 ERA: 3.95
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 9.88 K/9: 6.44
BB/9: 3.42 BB/9: 2.7
FIP: 3.62 FIP: 3.77
IP: 115.7 IP: 43.3
xERA: 3.98 xERA: 4.83
xwOBA: 0.308 xwOBA: 0.336
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX TB Lg Avg
Record 55-52 62-44
R/Game 4.24 4.48 4.51
RA/Game 4.41 4.11 4.51
OPS 0.727 0.734 0.721
wOBA 0.314 0.315 0.310
ERA 4.26 3.75 4.20
FIP 3.94 3.97 4.05
WHIP 1.27 1.16 1.31
K/9 8.67 8.15 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.482 0.539 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.64 3.95 4.26
BP FIP 4.20 4.19 4.08
BP WHIP 1.32 1.21
BP K/9 7.78 8.47
BP Quality* 55.5 46.1 46.4
BP IP 304.3 321.0
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 4.0 - TB 4.7
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.0 - TB 4.6
Win Probability: TEX 43.1% - TB 56.9%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +132 / TB -132
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 7.5: 57.4%
Under 7.5: 42.6%
TEX +1.5: 59.9%
TB -1.5: 40.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.2 - TB 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.2 - TB 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TEX 48.6% - TB 51.4% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +106 / TB -106
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML +117 +132 -2.9%
TB ML -141 -132 -1.7%
TEX +1.5 -194 -150 -6.0%
TB -1.5 +159 +150 +1.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +5.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -9.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | July 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Joey Cantillo Home: Brady Singer
ERA: 4.02 ERA: 4.53
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 9.52 K/9: 7.66
BB/9: 4.35 BB/9: 2.79
FIP: 3.98 FIP: 4.97
IP: 109.7 IP: 103.3
xERA: 3.9 xERA: 5.02
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Joey Cantillo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE CIN Lg Avg
Record 55-54 50-56
R/Game 3.91 4.14 4.51
RA/Game 4.08 4.75 4.51
OPS 0.677 0.705 0.721
wOBA 0.294 0.304 0.310
ERA 3.76 4.46 4.20
FIP 3.75 4.64 4.05
WHIP 1.26 1.41 1.31
K/9 9.32 8.11 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.480 0.437 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.75 4.63 4.26
BP FIP 3.53 4.94 4.08
BP WHIP 1.32 1.45
BP K/9 10.18 8.25
BP Quality* 43.1 60.2 46.4
BP IP 365.0 398.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jose Franco (48 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Pierce Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0043 (Temp: 1.0115 | Wind: 0.9928)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 5.0 - CIN 4.3
Simulated Avg: CLE 5.0 - CIN 4.2
Win Probability: CLE 57.2% - CIN 42.8%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -134 / CIN +134
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 9.0: 45.2%
Under 9.0: 45.7%
CLE -1.5: 41.7%
CIN +1.5: 58.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.7 - CIN 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.7 - CIN 2.4
F5 Win Prob: CLE 54.9% - CIN 45.1% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -122 / CIN +122
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML -135 -134 -0.3%
CIN ML +112 +134 -4.4%
CLE -1.5 +119 +140 -3.9%
CIN +1.5 -144 -140 -0.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -7.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -6.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | July 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Randy Dobnak Home: Joe Ryan
ERA: 1.42 ERA: 3.38
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 4.74 K/9: 10.31
BB/9: 4.26 BB/9: 1.97
FIP: 4.84 FIP: 3.28
IP: 19.0 IP: 114.3
xERA: 5.06 xERA: 3.5
xwOBA: 0.343 xwOBA: 0.29
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Joe Ryan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC MIN Lg Avg
Record 45-63 54-54
R/Game 4.19 4.76 4.51
RA/Game 5.08 5.00 4.51
OPS 0.709 0.730 0.721
wOBA 0.305 0.315 0.310
ERA 4.83 4.65 4.20
FIP 4.62 4.19 4.05
WHIP 1.44 1.38 1.31
K/9 7.65 8.42 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.412 0.477 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.44 4.85 4.26
BP FIP 5.16 4.27 4.08
BP WHIP 1.58 1.46
BP K/9 7.52 7.98
BP Quality* 60.4 53.3 46.4
BP IP 418.7 423.0
Bullpen Edge: MIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Travis Adams (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0120 (Temp: 1.0295 | Wind: 0.9830)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.0 - MIN 5.1
Simulated Avg: KC 4.0 - MIN 5.1
Win Probability: KC 39.1% - MIN 60.9%
Fair Moneyline: KC +156 / MIN -156
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 9.0: 43.1%
Under 9.0: 47.9%
KC +1.5: 55.7%
MIN -1.5: 44.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 1.9 - MIN 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 1.9 - MIN 2.2
F5 Win Prob: KC 43.4% - MIN 56.6% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +131 / MIN -131
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +167 +156 +1.7%
MIN ML -205 -156 -6.3%
KC +1.5 -131 -126 -1.0%
MIN -1.5 +108 +126 -3.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -9.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -4.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | July 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cam Schlittler Home: Davis Martin
ERA: 2.07 ERA: 3.49
WHIP: 0.93 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 10.84 K/9: 8.11
BB/9: 1.73 BB/9: 2.68
FIP: 2.46 FIP: 2.89
IP: 130.3 IP: 111.0
xERA: 2.95 xERA: 4.33
xwOBA: 0.267 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY CWS Lg Avg
Record 61-46 55-51
R/Game 4.67 4.79 4.51
RA/Game 3.84 4.41 4.51
OPS 0.729 0.727 0.721
wOBA 0.313 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.40 4.14 4.20
FIP 3.53 4.01 4.05
WHIP 1.19 1.31 1.31
K/9 9.00 8.64 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.589 0.538 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.16 4.26 4.26
BP FIP 3.62 4.30 4.08
BP WHIP 1.20 1.33
BP K/9 8.42 8.46
BP Quality* 48.4 55.0 46.4
BP IP 390.0 310.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: David Bednar (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Angel Chivilli (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Jordan Hicks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Schweitzer (38 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Sean Newcomb (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9872 (Temp: 0.9976 | Wind: 0.9896)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.5 - CWS 3.8
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.5 - CWS 3.8
Win Probability: NYY 56.8% - CWS 43.2%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -131 / CWS +131
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 7.5: 54.2%
Under 7.5: 45.8%
NYY -1.5: 39.8%
CWS +1.5: 60.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.1 - CWS 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.1 - CWS 1.6
F5 Win Prob: NYY 61.0% - CWS 39.1% (Tie: 19.3%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -156 / CWS +156
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -144 -131 -2.2%
CWS ML +119 +131 -2.5%
NYY -1.5 +119 +151 -5.9%
CWS +1.5 -144 -151 +1.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +1.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -6.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | July 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Matthew Boyd Home: Dustin May
ERA: 3.81 ERA: 4.59
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 8.39 K/9: 8.91
BB/9: 2.59 BB/9: 2.86
FIP: 3.42 FIP: 2.95
IP: 59.0 IP: 104.0
xERA: 4.42 xERA: 3.98
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: STL (Dustin May)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC STL Lg Avg
Record 61-46 53-54
R/Game 5.21 4.40 4.51
RA/Game 4.39 4.52 4.51
OPS 0.758 0.695 0.721
wOBA 0.328 0.301 0.310
ERA 4.20 4.21 4.20
FIP 4.58 3.94 4.05
WHIP 1.27 1.35 1.31
K/9 7.81 7.77 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.578 0.488 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.55 4.24 4.26
BP FIP 4.73 3.93 4.08
BP WHIP 1.39 1.35
BP K/9 7.94 8.03
BP Quality* 53.7 51.9 46.4
BP IP 401.3 380.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Matt Svanson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peter Strzelecki (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (38 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0464 (Temp: 1.0210 | Wind: 1.0249)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 5.2 - STL 4.7
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.2 - STL 4.8
Win Probability: CHC 53.5% - STL 46.5%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -115 / STL +115
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 8.0: 58.9%
Under 8.0: 32.6%
CHC -1.5: 38.8%
STL +1.5: 61.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.6 - STL 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.6 - STL 2.4
F5 Win Prob: CHC 54.2% - STL 45.8% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -118 / STL +118
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -107 -115 +1.8%
STL ML -112 +115 -6.3%
CHC -1.5 +153 +158 -0.7%
STL +1.5 -186 -158 -3.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +6.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -19.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HOU starter (id 669713) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (the model never uses prior-season data).
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | July 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Player 669713 Home: Grayson Rodriguez
ERA: 0.0 ERA: 8.54
WHIP: 0.0 WHIP: 1.79
K/9: 0.0 K/9: 6.92
BB/9: 0.0 BB/9: 4.38
FIP: 0.0 FIP: 5.36
IP: 0.0 IP: 39.0
xERA: N/A xERA: 7.82
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.411
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Player 669713)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU LAA Lg Avg
Record 54-55 42-66
R/Game 4.57 4.26 4.51
RA/Game 4.97 4.89 4.51
OPS 0.727 0.701 0.721
wOBA 0.310 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.70 4.52 4.20
FIP 4.56 4.11 4.05
WHIP 1.38 1.37 1.31
K/9 8.94 9.08 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.461 0.437 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.50 4.35 4.26
BP FIP 4.58 4.06 4.08
BP WHIP 1.34 1.37
BP K/9 9.15 9.81
BP Quality* 52.3 55.6 46.4
BP IP 391.7 372.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Mitch Farris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Samy Natera Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Bachman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9867 (Temp: 1.0060 | Wind: 0.9808)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 6.4 - LAA 4.3
Simulated Avg: HOU 6.4 - LAA 4.3
Win Probability: HOU 67.3% - LAA 32.7%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -206 / LAA +206
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 9.5: 56.5%
Under 9.5: 43.5%
HOU -1.5: 53.7%
LAA +1.5: 46.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 4.0 - LAA 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 4.0 - LAA 2.1
F5 Win Prob: HOU 74.3% - LAA 25.7% (Tie: 12.1%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -289 / LAA +289
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML -135 -206 +9.9%
LAA ML +112 +206 -14.5%
HOU -1.5 +119 -116 +8.0%
LAA +1.5 -144 +116 -12.7%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +4.1%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -8.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics
Regular Season | July 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Patrick Sandoval Home: Jacob Lopez
ERA: 3.21 ERA: 6.12
WHIP: 1.64 WHIP: 1.67
K/9: 8.36 K/9: 7.38
BB/9: 2.57 BB/9: 5.57
FIP: 3.03 FIP: 5.53
IP: 14.0 IP: 64.7
xERA: 3.68 xERA: 3.87
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.304
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Patrick Sandoval)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS ATH Lg Avg
Record 55-51 45-62
R/Game 4.20 4.43 4.51
RA/Game 3.75 5.61 4.51
OPS 0.707 0.725 0.721
wOBA 0.305 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.55 5.32 4.20
FIP 3.62 4.79 4.05
WHIP 1.23 1.48 1.31
K/9 8.63 8.60 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.551 0.394 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.59 5.71 4.26
BP FIP 3.71 4.75 4.08
BP WHIP 1.27 1.58
BP K/9 8.55 9.20
BP Quality* 46.2 60.5 46.4
BP IP 308.3 392.3
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jovani Morán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Slaten (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Hogan Harris (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Luis Medina (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9784 (Temp: 0.9950 | Wind: 0.9834)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 5.2 - ATH 4.0
Simulated Avg: BOS 5.2 - ATH 4.0
Win Probability: BOS 60.7% - ATH 39.3%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -155 / ATH +155
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 10.5: 36.5%
Under 10.5: 63.5%
BOS -1.5: 45.2%
ATH +1.5: 54.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.8 - ATH 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.8 - ATH 2.0
F5 Win Prob: BOS 63.5% - ATH 36.5% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -174 / ATH +174
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -147 -155 +1.2%
ATH ML +122 +155 -5.8%
BOS -1.5 +105 +121 -3.6%
ATH +1.5 -127 -121 -1.2%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -15.9%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +11.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 10.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00984
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | July 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Emerson Hancock Home: Eric Lauer
ERA: 3.16 ERA: 4.83
WHIP: 1.01 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 8.29 K/9: 5.71
BB/9: 2.22 BB/9: 3.07
FIP: 3.6 FIP: 6.03
IP: 105.3 IP: 82.0
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 4.96
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.34
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Emerson Hancock)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA LAD Lg Avg
Record 53-55 67-40
R/Game 4.04 5.16 4.51
RA/Game 3.95 3.72 4.51
OPS 0.689 0.773 0.721
wOBA 0.301 0.330 0.310
ERA 3.71 3.61 4.20
FIP 3.50 3.78 4.05
WHIP 1.18 1.14 1.31
K/9 8.65 9.15 8.52
Pythag Win% 0.510 0.645 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.38 4.21 4.26
BP FIP 3.45 3.91 4.08
BP WHIP 1.27 1.26
BP K/9 8.74 9.88
BP Quality* 45.9 46.0 46.4
BP IP 306.0 312.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9913 (Temp: 0.9993 | Wind: 0.9920)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 4.4 - LAD 4.7
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.4 - LAD 4.7
Win Probability: SEA 46.8% - LAD 53.2%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +114 / LAD -114
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.5: 43.8%
Under 9.5: 56.2%
SEA +1.5: 62.8%
LAD -1.5: 37.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.7 - LAD 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.7 - LAD 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SEA 53.8% - LAD 46.2% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -116 / LAD +116
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML +131 +114 +3.5%
LAD ML -158 -114 -8.1%
SEA +1.5 -152 -169 +2.5%
LAD -1.5 +125 +169 -7.2%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -8.6%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +3.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================