2026-07-30
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-30
Games: 10 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | July 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cole Winn Home: Shane McClanahan
ERA: 6.11 ERA: 3.09
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 9.17 K/9: 8.25
BB/9: 2.55 BB/9: 3.09
FIP: 4.49 FIP: 3.25
IP: 35.3 IP: 96.0
xERA: 4.95 xERA: 4.17
xwOBA: 0.34 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: TB (Shane McClanahan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX TB Lg Avg
Record 55-53 63-44
R/Game 4.20 4.47 4.51
RA/Game 4.40 4.07 4.51
OPS 0.724 0.732 0.720
wOBA 0.313 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.25 3.71 4.19
FIP 3.95 3.95 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.15 1.30
K/9 8.68 8.15 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.479 0.542 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.63 3.92 4.25
BP FIP 4.20 4.16 4.07
BP WHIP 1.32 1.20
BP K/9 7.75 8.51
BP Quality* 51.0 47.3 46.3
BP IP 305.3 323.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ian Seymour (71 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Joc Pederson, Josh Jung, Elias Díaz
Joc Pederson Designated Hitter OPS: 0.844 (285 AB)
Josh Jung Third Base OPS: 0.802 (354 AB)
Elias Díaz Catcher OPS: 0.689 (116 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.3% of full strength
TB (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ryan Vilade, Nick Fortes, Jake Fraley, Chandler Simpson
Ryan Vilade Outfielder OPS: 0.804 (159 AB)
Nick Fortes Catcher OPS: 0.699 (235 AB)
Jake Fraley Outfielder OPS: 0.690 (82 AB)
Chandler Simpson Outfielder OPS: 0.675 (372 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 3.3 - TB 4.7
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.3 - TB 4.8
Win Probability: TEX 35.0% - TB 65.0%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +185 / TB -185
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.5: 52.8%
Under 7.5: 47.2%
TEX +1.5: 52.6%
TB -1.5: 47.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 1.7 - TB 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.7 - TB 2.7
F5 Win Prob: TEX 33.2% - TB 66.8% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +201 / TB -201
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML +144 +185 -5.9%
TB ML -175 -185 +1.3%
TEX +1.5 -144 -111 -6.4%
TB -1.5 +119 +111 +1.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +0.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -5.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | July 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Noah Cameron Home: Bailey Ober
ERA: 4.93 ERA: 4.56
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 8.36 K/9: 6.67
BB/9: 3.09 BB/9: 2.44
FIP: 3.96 FIP: 4.52
IP: 107.7 IP: 81.0
xERA: 4.95 xERA: 4.41
xwOBA: 0.34 xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: KC (Noah Cameron)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC MIN Lg Avg
Record 46-63 54-55
R/Game 4.18 4.72 4.51
RA/Game 5.04 4.99 4.51
OPS 0.711 0.727 0.720
wOBA 0.306 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.78 4.64 4.19
FIP 4.60 4.19 4.04
WHIP 1.43 1.38 1.30
K/9 7.62 8.42 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.416 0.474 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.60 4.85 4.25
BP FIP 5.16 4.27 4.07
BP WHIP 1.58 1.46
BP K/9 7.62 7.98
BP Quality* 60.9 51.8 46.3
BP IP 401.7 423.0
Bullpen Edge: MIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kendry Rojas (52 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Bobby Witt Jr., Lane Thomas, Maikel Garcia
Bobby Witt Jr. Shortstop OPS: 0.800 (369 AB)
Lane Thomas Outfielder OPS: 0.718 (279 AB)
Maikel Garcia Third Base OPS: 0.693 (268 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.9% of full strength
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9935 (Temp: 1.0230 | Wind: 0.9712)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 4.2 - MIN 5.7
Simulated Avg: KC 4.2 - MIN 5.7
Win Probability: KC 36.7% - MIN 63.3%
Fair Moneyline: KC +172 / MIN -172
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 9.0: 50.2%
Under 9.0: 41.2%
KC +1.5: 51.7%
MIN -1.5: 48.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.3 - MIN 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.3 - MIN 2.9
F5 Win Prob: KC 41.4% - MIN 58.6% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +141 / MIN -141
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +119 +172 -8.9%
MIN ML -143 -172 +4.4%
KC +1.5 -171 -107 -11.4%
MIN -1.5 +141 +107 +6.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -2.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -11.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | July 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryan Weathers Home: Sean Burke
ERA: 4.25 ERA: 3.19
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 10.17 K/9: 9.89
BB/9: 2.5 BB/9: 2.66
FIP: 3.72 FIP: 3.22
IP: 108.0 IP: 118.3
xERA: 4.5 xERA: 3.44
xwOBA: 0.326 xwOBA: 0.288
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Sean Burke)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY CWS Lg Avg
Record 61-47 56-51
R/Game 4.68 4.80 4.51
RA/Game 3.86 4.41 4.51
OPS 0.727 0.725 0.720
wOBA 0.312 0.311 0.310
ERA 3.40 4.13 4.19
FIP 3.54 4.00 4.04
WHIP 1.18 1.30 1.30
K/9 9.01 8.63 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.587 0.539 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.19 4.22 4.25
BP FIP 3.68 4.28 4.07
BP WHIP 1.20 1.33
BP K/9 8.41 8.49
BP Quality* 50.3 54.7 46.3
BP IP 395.0 313.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Angel Chivilli (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Jordan Hicks (B2B, 29 pitches)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0150 (Temp: 1.0101 | Wind: 1.0049)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 4.4 - CWS 5.1
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.4 - CWS 5.1
Win Probability: NYY 43.2% - CWS 56.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYY +131 / CWS -131
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 7.5: 65.1%
Under 7.5: 34.9%
NYY -1.5: 28.7%
CWS +1.5: 71.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.0 - CWS 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.0 - CWS 2.7
F5 Win Prob: NYY 39.2% - CWS 60.8% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY +155 / CWS -155
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -105 +131 -8.0%
CWS ML -115 -131 +3.3%
NYY -1.5 +168 +249 -8.7%
CWS +1.5 -205 -249 +4.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +12.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -17.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00985
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | July 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Javier Assad Home: Andre Pallante
ERA: 3.86 ERA: 3.77
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 5.79 K/9: 6.65
BB/9: 2.2 BB/9: 2.56
FIP: 4.94 FIP: 3.63
IP: 65.3 IP: 112.3
xERA: 4.66 xERA: 3.65
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: STL (Andre Pallante)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC STL Lg Avg
Record 61-47 54-54
R/Game 5.19 4.39 4.51
RA/Game 4.38 4.50 4.51
OPS 0.755 0.694 0.720
wOBA 0.327 0.301 0.310
ERA 4.18 4.18 4.19
FIP 4.55 3.95 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.34 1.30
K/9 7.83 7.77 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.577 0.489 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.57 4.21 4.25
BP FIP 4.70 3.96 4.07
BP WHIP 1.39 1.35
BP K/9 8.00 8.04
BP Quality* 53.6 48.9 46.3
BP IP 403.7 385.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
UNAVAIL: Justin Bruihl (B2B, 36 pitches)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0196 (Temp: 1.0267 | Wind: 0.9931)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 4.9 - STL 5.0
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.9 - STL 5.0
Win Probability: CHC 48.3% - STL 51.7%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +107 / STL -107
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 8.5: 59.3%
Under 8.5: 40.7%
CHC -1.5: 33.8%
STL +1.5: 66.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 2.5 - STL 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.5 - STL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: CHC 46.9% - STL 53.1% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +113 / STL -113
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -105 +107 -2.9%
STL ML -114 -107 -1.6%
CHC -1.5 +159 +196 -4.9%
STL +1.5 -194 -196 +0.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +7.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -11.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | July 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Yohan Ramírez Home: Rhett Lowder
ERA: 3.21 ERA: 5.61
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.57
K/9: 9.96 K/9: 7.6
BB/9: 5.3 BB/9: 4.32
FIP: 3.58 FIP: 4.37
IP: 56.0 IP: 77.0
xERA: 3.81 xERA: 5.61
xwOBA: 0.302 xwOBA: 0.359
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Yohan Ramírez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CIN Lg Avg
Record 55-54 50-57
R/Game 5.17 4.11 4.51
RA/Game 4.83 4.77 4.51
OPS 0.756 0.702 0.720
wOBA 0.327 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.28 4.43 4.19
FIP 3.71 4.65 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.42 1.30
K/9 9.24 8.09 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.531 0.433 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.48 4.62 4.25
BP FIP 4.29 4.95 4.07
BP WHIP 1.43 1.45
BP K/9 8.93 8.22
BP Quality* 53.2 60.2 46.3
BP IP 339.7 403.0
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Carmen Mlodzinski (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ron Marinaccio (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: DEPLETED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Chase Petty (B2B, 32 pitches)
UNAVAIL: Julian Garcia (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Pierce Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0430 (Temp: 1.0171 | Wind: 1.0255)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 7.1 - CIN 4.6
Simulated Avg: PIT 7.1 - CIN 4.5
Win Probability: PIT 70.0% - CIN 30.0%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -233 / CIN +233
Avg Total Runs: 11.6
Over 9.5: 63.0%
Under 9.5: 37.0%
PIT -1.5: 57.4%
CIN +1.5: 42.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 3.9 - CIN 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 3.9 - CIN 2.2
F5 Win Prob: PIT 72.4% - CIN 27.6% (Tie: 12.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -262 / CIN +262
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML -115 -233 +16.5%
CIN ML -105 +233 -21.2%
PIT -1.5 +133 -135 +14.5%
CIN +1.5 -161 +135 -19.1%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +10.6%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -15.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -115 | Edge: 16.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00986
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
Regular Season | July 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Eury Pérez Home: Nolan McLean
ERA: 3.56 ERA: 3.32
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 9.67 K/9: 10.71
BB/9: 3.47 BB/9: 3.24
FIP: 3.82 FIP: 3.0
IP: 98.7 IP: 119.3
xERA: 4.0 xERA: 3.52
xwOBA: 0.309 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA NYM Lg Avg
Record 55-54 46-63
R/Game 4.41 4.12 4.51
RA/Game 4.36 4.59 4.51
OPS 0.734 0.688 0.720
wOBA 0.316 0.298 0.310
ERA 4.09 4.13 4.19
FIP 3.85 3.82 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.29 1.30
K/9 8.55 9.17 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.451 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.40 3.53 4.25
BP FIP 3.65 3.76 4.07
BP WHIP 1.27 1.23
BP K/9 9.36 9.35
BP Quality* 48.8 44.3 46.3
BP IP 315.3 275.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Duarte (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 1 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), calm
Weather Factor: 0.9980 (Temp: 1.0018 | Wind: 0.9962)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 3.6 - NYM 3.9
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.6 - NYM 3.9
Win Probability: MIA 45.4% - NYM 54.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +120 / NYM -120
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 7.0: 46.9%
Under 7.0: 42.7%
MIA +1.5: 63.9%
NYM -1.5: 36.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 1.8 - NYM 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.8 - NYM 2.0
F5 Win Prob: MIA 45.6% - NYM 54.4% (Tie: 19.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +120 / NYM -120
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +109 +120 -2.4%
NYM ML -131 -120 -2.1%
MIA +1.5 -205 -177 -3.3%
NYM -1.5 +168 +177 -1.3%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -5.5%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -9.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | July 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jake Irvin Home: Grant Holmes
ERA: 5.23 ERA: 3.79
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 10.1 K/9: 7.67
BB/9: 3.83 BB/9: 3.98
FIP: 3.89 FIP: 4.72
IP: 51.7 IP: 97.3
xERA: 5.25 xERA: 4.72
xwOBA: 0.349 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Jake Irvin)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH ATL Lg Avg
Record 55-54 63-45
R/Game 5.47 4.87 4.51
RA/Game 5.21 3.98 4.51
OPS 0.774 0.729 0.720
wOBA 0.330 0.313 0.310
ERA 4.75 3.71 4.19
FIP 4.54 4.01 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.25 1.30
K/9 7.75 8.72 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.522 0.591 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.00 3.71 4.25
BP FIP 5.18 3.83 4.07
BP WHIP 1.60 1.21
BP K/9 8.29 8.97
BP Quality* 62.3 43.6 46.3
BP IP 364.7 349.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Paxton Schultz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (35 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0401 (Temp: 1.0181 | Wind: 1.0215)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 5.8 - ATL 6.4
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.8 - ATL 6.4
Win Probability: WSH 45.0% - ATL 55.0%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +122 / ATL -122
Avg Total Runs: 12.2
Over 9.5: 66.6%
Under 9.5: 33.4%
WSH +1.5: 58.0%
ATL -1.5: 42.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 3.4 - ATL 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 3.4 - ATL 3.3
F5 Win Prob: WSH 52.1% - ATL 47.9% (Tie: 13.0%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -109 / ATL +109
F5 Avg Total: 6.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +129 +122 +1.3%
ATL ML -156 -122 -5.9%
WSH +1.5 -156 -138 -2.9%
ATL -1.5 +129 +138 -1.7%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +14.2%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -19.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 9.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 14.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00987
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics
Regular Season | July 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sonny Gray Home: Mason Barnett
ERA: 2.78 ERA: 4.74
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 7.85 K/9: 8.39
BB/9: 2.36 BB/9: 4.74
FIP: 3.61 FIP: 5.45
IP: 106.7 IP: 24.7
xERA: 3.81 xERA: 4.75
xwOBA: 0.302 xwOBA: 0.334
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Sonny Gray)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS ATH Lg Avg
Record 56-51 45-63
R/Game 4.20 4.41 4.51
RA/Game 3.74 5.59 4.51
OPS 0.708 0.725 0.720
wOBA 0.306 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.54 5.28 4.19
FIP 3.62 4.79 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.48 1.30
K/9 8.67 8.62 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.553 0.393 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.53 5.67 4.25
BP FIP 3.65 4.76 4.07
BP WHIP 1.26 1.57
BP K/9 8.62 9.18
BP Quality* 47.1 61.8 46.3
BP IP 313.3 397.0
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Slaten (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jovani Morán (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: José Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hayden Juenger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9809 (Temp: 0.9963 | Wind: 0.9846)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 5.2 - ATH 4.1
Simulated Avg: BOS 5.2 - ATH 4.1
Win Probability: BOS 60.1% - ATH 39.9%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -151 / ATH +151
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 10.0: 37.1%
Under 10.0: 54.6%
BOS -1.5: 44.7%
ATH +1.5: 55.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.8 - ATH 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.8 - ATH 2.1
F5 Win Prob: BOS 62.3% - ATH 37.7% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -165 / ATH +165
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -185 -151 -4.8%
ATH ML +152 +151 +0.2%
BOS -1.5 -112 +124 -8.1%
ATH +1.5 -108 -124 +3.3%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -15.3%
U 10.0 -110 N/A +2.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | July 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: JP Sears
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF SD Lg Avg
Record 46-62 55-53
R/Game 4.23 4.19 4.51
RA/Game 4.67 4.36 4.51
OPS 0.727 0.694 0.720
wOBA 0.309 0.300 0.310
ERA 4.36 4.17 4.19
FIP 4.11 4.08 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.33 1.30
K/9 7.69 8.39 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.455 0.482 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.59 3.00 4.25
BP FIP 4.26 3.06 4.07
BP WHIP 1.46 1.17
BP K/9 7.86 10.75
BP Quality* 52.5 40.1 46.3
BP IP 341.3 231.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Keaton Winn (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Griffin Canning (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9992 (Temp: 1.0003 | Wind: 0.9989)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 3.7 - SD 4.3
Simulated Avg: SF 3.7 - SD 4.3
Win Probability: SF 42.8% - SD 57.2%
Fair Moneyline: SF +133 / SD -133
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.5: 42.2%
Under 8.5: 57.8%
SF +1.5: 60.5%
SD -1.5: 39.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 2.2 - SD 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.1 - SD 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SF 48.1% - SD 51.8% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +108 / SD -108
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +130 +133 -0.6%
SD ML -157 -133 -3.9%
SF +1.5 -169 -153 -2.3%
SD -1.5 +139 +153 -2.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -10.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +5.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | July 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryan Woo Home: Roki Sasaki
ERA: 4.37 ERA: 4.71
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 8.9 K/9: 9.03
BB/9: 1.87 BB/9: 3.46
FIP: 3.1 FIP: 5.02
IP: 115.3 IP: 93.7
xERA: 3.52 xERA: 4.35
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryan Woo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA LAD Lg Avg
Record 53-56 68-40
R/Game 4.02 5.15 4.51
RA/Game 3.95 3.70 4.51
OPS 0.688 0.774 0.720
wOBA 0.300 0.330 0.310
ERA 3.71 3.59 4.19
FIP 3.50 3.77 4.04
WHIP 1.19 1.13 1.30
K/9 8.64 9.11 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.646 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.38 4.22 4.25
BP FIP 3.44 3.91 4.07
BP WHIP 1.27 1.27
BP K/9 8.71 9.82
BP Quality* 45.9 46.1 46.3
BP IP 309.0 315.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Michael Rucker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Wilcox (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9889 (Temp: 0.9970 | Wind: 0.9919)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 4.0 - LAD 4.6
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.0 - LAD 4.6
Win Probability: SEA 44.4% - LAD 55.6%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +125 / LAD -125
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.5: 48.0%
Under 8.5: 52.0%
SEA +1.5: 60.9%
LAD -1.5: 39.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.4 - LAD 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.4 - LAD 2.4
F5 Win Prob: SEA 50.5% - LAD 49.5% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -102 / LAD +102
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML +130 +125 +0.9%
LAD ML -157 -125 -5.5%
SEA +1.5 -157 -156 -0.1%
LAD -1.5 +130 +156 -4.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -0.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================