2026-07-31
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-07-31
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | July 31, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Will Warren Home: Shota Imanaga
ERA: 4.41 ERA: 3.72
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 8.4
BB/9: 3.18 BB/9: 2.16
FIP: 4.07 FIP: 4.31
IP: 102.0 IP: 121.0
xERA: 4.58 xERA: 3.64
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY CHC Lg Avg
Record 61-48 62-47
R/Game 4.64 5.17 4.50
RA/Game 3.84 4.36 4.50
OPS 0.725 0.755 0.720
wOBA 0.311 0.327 0.310
ERA 3.31 4.15 4.18
FIP 3.53 4.54 4.04
WHIP 1.18 1.26 1.30
K/9 9.01 7.83 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.585 0.578 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.05 4.54 4.24
BP FIP 3.66 4.71 4.07
BP WHIP 1.20 1.38
BP K/9 8.49 7.95
BP Quality* 43.8 53.5 46.2
BP IP 398.7 408.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Angel Chivilli (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), crosswind (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9993 (Temp: 1.0097 | Wind: 0.9897)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 4.9 - CHC 5.5
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.9 - CHC 5.5
Win Probability: NYY 44.7% - CHC 55.3%
Fair Moneyline: NYY +124 / CHC -124
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 9.0: 54.5%
Under 9.0: 37.3%
NYY +1.5: 59.3%
CHC -1.5: 40.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.5 - CHC 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.5 - CHC 3.1
F5 Win Prob: NYY 40.5% - CHC 59.5% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY +147 / CHC -147
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML +134 +124 +2.0%
CHC ML -162 -124 -6.6%
NYY +1.5 -155 -146 -1.5%
CHC -1.5 +128 +146 -3.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +2.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -15.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | July 31, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Paul Skenes Home: Hunter Greene
ERA: 3.65 ERA: 7.06
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 11.11 K/9: 12.05
BB/9: 2.09 BB/9: 2.91
FIP: 2.51 FIP: 3.19
IP: 120.7 IP: 21.7
xERA: 2.82 xERA: 4.68
xwOBA: 0.262 xwOBA: 0.332
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CIN Lg Avg
Record 55-55 51-57
R/Game 5.14 4.10 4.50
RA/Game 4.81 4.74 4.50
OPS 0.755 0.704 0.720
wOBA 0.327 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.26 4.41 4.18
FIP 3.70 4.63 4.04
WHIP 1.32 1.41 1.30
K/9 9.27 8.11 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.530 0.434 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.46 4.59 4.24
BP FIP 4.28 4.92 4.07
BP WHIP 1.45 1.45
BP K/9 8.99 8.27
BP Quality* 53.3 61.4 46.2
BP IP 347.3 406.0
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Barco (72 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Noah Murdock (45 pitches yesterday)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Petty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Pierce Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0175 (Temp: 1.0248 | Wind: 0.9929)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 7.2 - CIN 4.0
Simulated Avg: PIT 7.2 - CIN 4.0
Win Probability: PIT 75.0% - CIN 25.0%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -300 / CIN +300
Avg Total Runs: 11.2
Over 8.0: 67.9%
Under 8.0: 25.1%
PIT -1.5: 62.8%
CIN +1.5: 37.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 4.0 - CIN 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 4.0 - CIN 1.7
F5 Win Prob: PIT 80.3% - CIN 19.7% (Tie: 12.0%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -408 / CIN +408
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML -125 -300 +19.4%
CIN ML +104 +300 -24.0%
PIT -1.5 +135 -169 +20.3%
CIN +1.5 -163 +169 -24.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +15.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -27.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -125 | Edge: 19.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00988
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | July 31, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Brandon Young
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI BAL Lg Avg
Record 57-52 53-56
R/Game 4.34 4.60 4.50
RA/Game 4.48 4.82 4.50
OPS 0.703 0.715 0.720
wOBA 0.302 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.26 4.21 4.18
FIP 3.70 4.03 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.34 1.30
K/9 9.90 8.00 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.479 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.53 4.01 4.24
BP FIP 3.68 4.01 4.07
BP WHIP 1.39 1.27
BP K/9 10.26 8.54
BP Quality* 45.3 44.5 46.2
BP IP 317.7 388.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0056 (Temp: 1.0159 | Wind: 0.9899)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 4.0 - BAL 4.8
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.0 - BAL 4.8
Win Probability: PHI 42.1% - BAL 57.9%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +138 / BAL -138
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 49.8%
Under 8.5: 50.2%
PHI -1.5: 27.0%
BAL +1.5: 73.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.2 - BAL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.2 - BAL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: PHI 42.3% - BAL 57.7% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +137 / BAL -137
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -105 +138 -9.1%
BAL ML -115 -138 +4.4%
PHI -1.5 +156 +271 -12.1%
BAL +1.5 -190 -271 +7.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | July 31, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Leahy Home: Dylan Cease
ERA: 3.55 ERA: 2.46
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 7.82 K/9: 13.26
BB/9: 3.02 BB/9: 3.81
FIP: 3.91 FIP: 2.23
IP: 101.3 IP: 113.3
xERA: 5.21 xERA: 2.78
xwOBA: 0.348 xwOBA: 0.26
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Dylan Cease)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL TOR Lg Avg
Record 54-55 50-59
R/Game 4.37 3.94 4.50
RA/Game 4.50 4.50 4.50
OPS 0.692 0.684 0.720
wOBA 0.300 0.295 0.310
ERA 4.16 4.15 4.18
FIP 3.94 3.89 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.31 1.30
K/9 7.73 9.03 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.487 0.441 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.21 3.44 4.24
BP FIP 3.96 3.34 4.07
BP WHIP 1.35 1.32
BP K/9 8.01 9.15
BP Quality* 56.4 39.9 46.2
BP IP 386.7 243.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: DEPLETED (penalty +10.5)
UNAVAIL: George Soriano (B2B, 29 pitches)
UNAVAIL: Ryne Stanek (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0090 (Temp: 1.0054 | Wind: 1.0035)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 3.0 - TOR 4.5
Simulated Avg: STL 3.0 - TOR 4.5
Win Probability: STL 34.3% - TOR 65.7%
Fair Moneyline: STL +192 / TOR -192
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 7.5: 47.2%
Under 7.5: 52.8%
STL +1.5: 52.4%
TOR -1.5: 47.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 1.4 - TOR 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 1.4 - TOR 2.3
F5 Win Prob: STL 33.2% - TOR 66.8% (Tie: 19.2%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +202 / TOR -202
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +153 +192 -5.2%
TOR ML -187 -192 +0.6%
STL +1.5 -136 -110 -5.2%
TOR -1.5 +113 +110 +0.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -5.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +0.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | July 31, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Mitch Bratt Home: Tanner Bibee
ERA: 6.32 ERA: 3.89
WHIP: 1.98 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 5.74 K/9: 6.98
BB/9: 6.32 BB/9: 2.66
FIP: 7.24 FIP: 4.52
IP: 15.7 IP: 125.0
xERA: 5.1 xERA: 4.49
xwOBA: 0.345 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Tanner Bibee)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI CLE Lg Avg
Record 57-52 56-54
R/Game 4.51 3.93 4.50
RA/Game 4.51 4.05 4.50
OPS 0.706 0.679 0.720
wOBA 0.303 0.295 0.310
ERA 4.20 3.73 4.18
FIP 4.32 3.73 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.26 1.30
K/9 6.86 9.38 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.500 0.485 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.91 3.72 4.24
BP FIP 3.77 3.50 4.07
BP WHIP 1.21 1.31
BP K/9 7.69 10.24
BP Quality* 44.3 47.2 46.2
BP IP 354.7 370.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Franco Aleman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0335 (Temp: 1.0129 | Wind: 1.0203)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 4.6 - CLE 4.4
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.6 - CLE 4.5
Win Probability: ARI 50.8% - CLE 49.2%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -103 / CLE +103
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.5: 51.6%
Under 8.5: 48.4%
ARI +1.5: 67.1%
CLE -1.5: 32.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 2.6 - CLE 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.6 - CLE 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ARI 49.2% - CLE 50.8% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +103 / CLE -103
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +117 -103 +4.7%
CLE ML -141 +103 -9.3%
ARI +1.5 -183 -204 +2.5%
CLE -1.5 +151 +204 -7.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -0.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | July 31, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Erick Fedde Home: Nick Martinez
ERA: 4.25 ERA: 2.45
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 6.29 K/9: 5.14
BB/9: 3.33 BB/9: 1.53
FIP: 5.35 FIP: 3.69
IP: 97.3 IP: 117.3
xERA: 4.71 xERA: 4.34
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: TB (Nick Martinez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS TB Lg Avg
Record 57-51 64-44
R/Game 4.78 4.45 4.50
RA/Game 4.38 4.06 4.50
OPS 0.724 0.733 0.720
wOBA 0.310 0.315 0.310
ERA 4.08 3.69 4.18
FIP 3.98 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.15 1.30
K/9 8.64 8.19 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.540 0.543 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.16 3.91 4.24
BP FIP 4.27 4.15 4.07
BP WHIP 1.33 1.20
BP K/9 8.44 8.59
BP Quality* 51.5 53.2 46.2
BP IP 317.7 327.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jordan Hicks (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Bryan Baker (B2B, 30 pitches)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Matz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 4.4 - TB 5.0
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.4 - TB 5.0
Win Probability: CWS 44.2% - TB 55.8%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +126 / TB -126
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.5: 54.6%
Under 8.5: 45.4%
CWS +1.5: 60.0%
TB -1.5: 40.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.2 - TB 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.2 - TB 2.8
F5 Win Prob: CWS 40.1% - TB 59.9% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +149 / TB -149
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +118 +126 -1.6%
TB ML -142 -126 -2.9%
CWS +1.5 -182 -150 -4.5%
TB -1.5 +150 +150 -0.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +2.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -7.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
Regular Season | July 31, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Janson Junk Home: Freddy Peralta
ERA: 4.89 ERA: 4.99
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.48
K/9: 6.96 K/9: 8.95
BB/9: 2.44 BB/9: 3.8
FIP: 4.31 FIP: 4.32
IP: 73.7 IP: 113.7
xERA: 4.02 xERA: 3.83
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA NYM Lg Avg
Record 55-55 47-63
R/Game 4.39 4.12 4.50
RA/Game 4.35 4.56 4.50
OPS 0.733 0.687 0.720
wOBA 0.316 0.297 0.310
ERA 4.08 4.11 4.18
FIP 3.84 3.83 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.29 1.30
K/9 8.55 9.17 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.504 0.453 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.44 3.50 4.24
BP FIP 3.64 3.74 4.07
BP WHIP 1.27 1.22
BP K/9 9.39 9.36
BP Quality* 45.8 42.6 46.2
BP IP 316.3 278.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Devin Williams (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0024 (Temp: 1.0068 | Wind: 0.9956)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 4.1 - NYM 4.2
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.1 - NYM 4.2
Win Probability: MIA 49.4% - NYM 50.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +102 / NYM -102
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.5: 45.3%
Under 8.5: 54.7%
MIA +1.5: 66.3%
NYM -1.5: 33.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 2.4 - NYM 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.4 - NYM 2.3
F5 Win Prob: MIA 51.5% - NYM 48.5% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -106 / NYM +106
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +109 +102 +1.6%
NYM ML -131 -102 -6.1%
MIA +1.5 -193 -197 +0.5%
NYM -1.5 +158 +197 -5.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +2.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | July 31, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Foster Griffin Home: Bryce Elder
ERA: 2.76 ERA: 3.96
WHIP: 1.03 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 8.2 K/9: 7.76
BB/9: 2.03 BB/9: 2.93
FIP: 3.74 FIP: 4.41
IP: 124.0 IP: 113.7
xERA: 3.91 xERA: 3.96
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Foster Griffin)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH ATL Lg Avg
Record 55-55 64-45
R/Game 5.45 4.87 4.50
RA/Game 5.21 3.98 4.50
OPS 0.775 0.728 0.720
wOBA 0.330 0.313 0.310
ERA 4.76 3.71 4.18
FIP 4.56 4.04 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.25 1.30
K/9 7.71 8.70 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.521 0.591 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.98 3.69 4.24
BP FIP 5.16 3.82 4.07
BP WHIP 1.59 1.20
BP K/9 8.32 8.92
BP Quality* 62.1 47.9 46.2
BP IP 365.7 353.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Carson Palmquist (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Danny Young (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0200 (Temp: 1.0216 | Wind: 0.9984)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 5.6 - ATL 5.4
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.6 - ATL 5.5
Win Probability: WSH 51.4% - ATL 48.6%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -106 / ATL +106
Avg Total Runs: 11.1
Over 9.0: 59.7%
Under 9.0: 32.8%
WSH -1.5: 37.6%
ATL +1.5: 62.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 3.1 - ATL 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 3.1 - ATL 2.4
F5 Win Prob: WSH 60.1% - ATL 39.9% (Tie: 14.5%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -150 / ATL +150
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML -102 -106 +0.9%
ATL ML -118 +106 -5.5%
WSH -1.5 +156 +166 -1.4%
ATL +1.5 -190 -166 -3.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +7.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -19.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.7% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.3%
Fair ML: -148 | Kelly: 3.83%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00989
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | July 31, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nathan Eovaldi Home: Hunter Brown
ERA: 4.05 ERA: 3.45
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 9.56 K/9: 9.57
BB/9: 2.13 BB/9: 5.36
FIP: 4.02 FIP: 4.14
IP: 122.3 IP: 47.0
xERA: 3.94 xERA: 3.67
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX HOU Lg Avg
Record 55-54 55-55
R/Game 4.18 4.59 4.50
RA/Game 4.39 4.96 4.50
OPS 0.722 0.728 0.720
wOBA 0.312 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.24 4.69 4.18
FIP 3.96 4.55 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.38 1.30
K/9 8.66 8.90 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.478 0.464 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.60 4.49 4.24
BP FIP 4.25 4.54 4.07
BP WHIP 1.32 1.33
BP K/9 7.70 9.05
BP Quality* 52.6 52.0 46.2
BP IP 313.3 400.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Ben Peoples (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Marco Gonzales (68 pitches yesterday)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9919 (Temp: 1.0225 | Wind: 0.9701)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 4.1 - HOU 4.8
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.1 - HOU 4.8
Win Probability: TEX 42.8% - HOU 57.2%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +133 / HOU -133
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 7.5: 59.8%
Under 7.5: 40.2%
TEX +1.5: 59.3%
HOU -1.5: 40.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.1 - HOU 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.1 - HOU 2.5
F5 Win Prob: TEX 43.4% - HOU 56.6% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +130 / HOU -130
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML +109 +133 -5.0%
HOU ML -131 -133 +0.5%
TEX +1.5 -198 -146 -7.1%
HOU -1.5 +162 +146 +2.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +7.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -12.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.88%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00990
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | July 31, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael Wacha Home: Tomoyuki Sugano
ERA: 3.6 ERA: 4.69
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 7.07 K/9: 5.25
BB/9: 2.58 BB/9: 2.25
FIP: 3.96 FIP: 5.39
IP: 132.3 IP: 96.0
xERA: 4.25 xERA: 7.27
xwOBA: 0.318 xwOBA: 0.4
Pitcher Edge: KC (Michael Wacha)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC COL Lg Avg
Record 46-64 42-67
R/Game 4.17 4.72 4.50
RA/Game 5.03 5.76 4.50
OPS 0.710 0.739 0.720
wOBA 0.306 0.318 0.310
ERA 4.80 5.54 4.18
FIP 4.59 4.68 4.04
WHIP 1.42 1.53 1.30
K/9 7.62 7.19 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.416 0.410 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.70 5.09 4.24
BP FIP 5.20 4.33 4.07
BP WHIP 1.59 1.53
BP K/9 7.63 7.54
BP Quality* 61.5 53.5 46.2
BP IP 402.3 375.0
Bullpen Edge: COL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Lynch IV (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 14%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0234 (Temp: 1.0135 | Wind: 1.0098)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 6.3 - COL 6.3
Simulated Avg: KC 6.3 - COL 6.2
Win Probability: KC 49.9% - COL 50.1%
Fair Moneyline: KC +100 / COL -100
Avg Total Runs: 12.5
Over 11.0: 54.3%
Under 11.0: 38.4%
KC -1.5: 37.7%
COL +1.5: 62.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 3.8 - COL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 3.8 - COL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: KC 60.3% - COL 39.7% (Tie: 12.6%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -152 / COL +152
F5 Avg Total: 6.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML -111 +100 -2.7%
COL ML -108 -100 -1.9%
KC -1.5 +134 +165 -5.0%
COL +1.5 -162 -165 +0.5%
O 11.0 -110 N/A +2.0%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -14.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | July 31, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shane Drohan Home: Ryan Johnson
ERA: 3.51 ERA: 7.34
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.54
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 7.34
BB/9: 2.52 BB/9: 3.67
FIP: 2.89 FIP: 6.12
IP: 82.0 IP: 41.7
xERA: 3.31 xERA: 4.9
xwOBA: 0.283 xwOBA: 0.339
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Shane Drohan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL LAA Lg Avg
Record 67-41 42-67
R/Game 5.06 4.26 4.50
RA/Game 3.83 4.91 4.50
OPS 0.737 0.701 0.720
wOBA 0.317 0.304 0.310
ERA 3.51 4.54 4.18
FIP 3.45 4.12 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.37 1.30
K/9 9.76 9.10 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.624 0.435 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.66 4.40 4.24
BP FIP 3.71 4.04 4.07
BP WHIP 1.30 1.38
BP K/9 9.00 9.82
BP Quality* 43.8 51.3 46.2
BP IP 349.0 376.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mitch Farris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Suter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9991 (Temp: 1.0138 | Wind: 0.9855)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 6.5 - LAA 3.7
Simulated Avg: MIL 6.5 - LAA 3.7
Win Probability: MIL 73.9% - LAA 26.1%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -282 / LAA +282
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 9.0: 52.5%
Under 9.0: 39.2%
MIL -1.5: 60.5%
LAA +1.5: 39.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 4.0 - LAA 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 4.0 - LAA 1.8
F5 Win Prob: MIL 79.1% - LAA 20.9% (Tie: 11.8%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -379 / LAA +379
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -181 -282 +9.4%
LAA ML +149 +282 -14.0%
MIL -1.5 -111 -153 +7.9%
LAA +1.5 -108 +153 -12.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +0.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -13.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (Run Line) [-111]
Model: 60.5% | Market: 52.6% | Edge: 7.9%
Fair ML: -153 | Kelly: 4.18%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00991
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Athletics
Regular Season | July 31, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Casey Mize Home: Jeffrey Springs
ERA: 2.7 ERA: 6.23
WHIP: 0.99 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 8.83 K/9: 7.44
BB/9: 1.97 BB/9: 3.38
FIP: 2.55 FIP: 5.95
IP: 86.7 IP: 104.0
xERA: 3.07 xERA: 4.87
xwOBA: 0.273 xwOBA: 0.338
Pitcher Edge: DET (Casey Mize)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET ATH Lg Avg
Record 51-58 45-64
R/Game 4.34 4.40 4.50
RA/Game 3.99 5.59 4.50
OPS 0.718 0.725 0.720
wOBA 0.310 0.311 0.310
ERA 3.63 5.28 4.18
FIP 3.70 4.79 4.04
WHIP 1.21 1.48 1.30
K/9 8.52 8.63 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.538 0.393 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.00 5.62 4.24
BP FIP 4.15 4.75 4.07
BP WHIP 1.35 1.56
BP K/9 8.45 9.18
BP Quality* 45.9 58.5 46.2
BP IP 389.7 408.0
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9783 (Temp: 0.9944 | Wind: 0.9838)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 5.6 - ATH 3.6
Simulated Avg: DET 5.6 - ATH 3.6
Win Probability: DET 68.5% - ATH 31.5%
Fair Moneyline: DET -218 / ATH +218
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 11.0: 28.8%
Under 11.0: 63.7%
DET -1.5: 53.4%
ATH +1.5: 46.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 3.2 - ATH 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 3.2 - ATH 1.6
F5 Win Prob: DET 74.7% - ATH 25.3% (Tie: 14.5%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -296 / ATH +296
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -143 -218 +9.7%
ATH ML +119 +218 -14.2%
DET -1.5 +103 -114 +4.1%
ATH +1.5 -124 +114 -8.7%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -23.6%
U 11.0 -110 N/A +11.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 11.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00992
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | July 31, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Carson Whisenhunt Home: Bradgley Rodriguez
ERA: 4.6 ERA: 2.33
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 7.47 K/9: 9.13
BB/9: 4.6 BB/9: 3.11
FIP: 5.46 FIP: 2.67
IP: 15.7 IP: 46.3
xERA: 5.82 xERA: 2.39
xwOBA: 0.365 xwOBA: 0.241
Pitcher Edge: SD (Bradgley Rodriguez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF SD Lg Avg
Record 47-62 55-54
R/Game 4.23 4.17 4.50
RA/Game 4.63 4.36 4.50
OPS 0.728 0.693 0.720
wOBA 0.310 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.33 4.17 4.18
FIP 4.08 4.09 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.33 1.30
K/9 7.71 8.35 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.458 0.479 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.55 3.00 4.24
BP FIP 4.23 3.06 4.07
BP WHIP 1.46 1.17
BP K/9 7.89 10.75
BP Quality* 52.2 41.6 46.2
BP IP 344.3 231.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Keaton Winn (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Randy Vásquez (65 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0105 (Temp: 1.0012 | Wind: 1.0093)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 2.9 - SD 4.5
Simulated Avg: SF 2.9 - SD 4.5
Win Probability: SF 32.8% - SD 67.2%
Fair Moneyline: SF +205 / SD -205
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 8.5: 36.2%
Under 8.5: 63.8%
SF +1.5: 50.9%
SD -1.5: 49.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 1.3 - SD 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.3 - SD 2.4
F5 Win Prob: SF 28.7% - SD 71.2% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +248 / SD -248
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +124 +205 -11.9%
SD ML -150 -205 +7.2%
SF +1.5 -171 -104 -12.2%
SD -1.5 +141 +104 +7.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -16.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +11.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00993
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | July 31, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ranger Suarez Home: Edgardo Henriquez
ERA: 3.02 ERA: 2.79
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.05
K/9: 9.72 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 2.45 BB/9: 4.07
FIP: 2.44 FIP: 2.77
IP: 95.3 IP: 42.0
xERA: 3.31 xERA: 2.69
xwOBA: 0.283 xwOBA: 0.256
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS LAD Lg Avg
Record 57-51 69-40
R/Game 4.20 5.16 4.50
RA/Game 3.74 3.69 4.50
OPS 0.708 0.774 0.720
wOBA 0.306 0.330 0.310
ERA 3.54 3.58 4.18
FIP 3.60 3.76 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.14 1.30
K/9 8.67 9.13 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.553 0.649 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.51 4.18 4.24
BP FIP 3.63 3.89 4.07
BP WHIP 1.26 1.27
BP K/9 8.65 9.82
BP Quality* 44.0 51.9 46.2
BP IP 315.3 319.0
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Tanner Scott (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edwin Díaz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9934 (Temp: 1.0015 | Wind: 0.9919)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 3.4 - LAD 4.0
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.4 - LAD 4.0
Win Probability: BOS 42.2% - LAD 57.8%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +137 / LAD -137
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 8.5: 36.2%
Under 8.5: 63.8%
BOS +1.5: 61.2%
LAD -1.5: 38.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 1.5 - LAD 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.5 - LAD 1.9
F5 Win Prob: BOS 39.9% - LAD 60.1% (Tie: 21.0%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +151 / LAD -151
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML +104 +137 -6.8%
LAD ML -125 -137 +2.2%
BOS +1.5 -200 -158 -5.5%
LAD -1.5 +164 +158 +0.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -16.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +11.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00994
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | July 31, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zebby Matthews Home: Bryce Miller
ERA: 5.21 ERA: 2.75
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 0.92
K/9: 6.99 K/9: 9.31
BB/9: 2.84 BB/9: 1.44
FIP: 5.06 FIP: 3.59
IP: 76.0 IP: 68.7
xERA: 4.74 xERA: 2.65
xwOBA: 0.334 xwOBA: 0.254
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryce Miller)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN SEA Lg Avg
Record 55-55 53-57
R/Game 4.71 4.00 4.50
RA/Game 4.97 3.97 4.50
OPS 0.724 0.688 0.720
wOBA 0.313 0.300 0.310
ERA 4.62 3.74 4.18
FIP 4.19 3.51 4.04
WHIP 1.38 1.19 1.30
K/9 8.39 8.69 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.475 0.503 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.82 3.38 4.24
BP FIP 4.26 3.45 4.07
BP WHIP 1.46 1.27
BP K/9 7.96 8.77
BP Quality* 50.2 44.4 46.2
BP IP 426.0 312.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Alex Hoppe (B2B, 35 pitches)
TIRED: Cole Wilcox (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0219 (Temp: 1.0036 | Wind: 1.0183)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 3.7 - SEA 4.5
Simulated Avg: MIN 3.7 - SEA 4.5
Win Probability: MIN 41.0% - SEA 59.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +144 / SEA -144
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.0: 43.7%
Under 8.0: 46.5%
MIN +1.5: 58.4%
SEA -1.5: 41.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 1.8 - SEA 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 1.8 - SEA 2.6
F5 Win Prob: MIN 36.3% - SEA 63.7% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +175 / SEA -175
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML +143 +144 -0.1%
SEA ML -173 -144 -4.4%
MIN +1.5 -149 -141 -1.4%
SEA -1.5 +124 +141 -3.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -8.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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