2026-08-01
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-01
Games: 15 | Plays: 4
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[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] STL starter (id 687273) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (the model never uses prior-season data).
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | August 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Player 687273 Home: Kevin Gausman
ERA: 0.0 ERA: 4.51
WHIP: 0.0 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 0.0 K/9: 9.1
BB/9: 0.0 BB/9: 2.59
FIP: 0.0 FIP: 3.54
IP: 0.0 IP: 121.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.93
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.307
Pitcher Edge: STL (Player 687273)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL TOR Lg Avg
Record 54-56 51-59
R/Game 4.34 3.94 4.50
RA/Game 4.48 4.46 4.50
OPS 0.691 0.685 0.720
wOBA 0.299 0.296 0.310
ERA 4.16 4.12 4.18
FIP 3.94 3.87 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.31 1.30
K/9 7.71 9.05 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.485 0.443 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.24 3.42 4.24
BP FIP 3.97 3.32 4.07
BP WHIP 1.36 1.31
BP K/9 7.99 9.15
BP Quality* 53.7 41.1 46.2
BP IP 388.7 245.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0156 (Temp: 1.0135 | Wind: 1.0021)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 4.0 - TOR 3.9
Simulated Avg: STL 4.0 - TOR 3.9
Win Probability: STL 51.2% - TOR 48.8%
Fair Moneyline: STL -105 / TOR +105
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.5: 40.4%
Under 8.5: 59.6%
STL +1.5: 68.6%
TOR -1.5: 31.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 2.3 - TOR 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.3 - TOR 1.8
F5 Win Prob: STL 59.7% - TOR 40.3% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -148 / TOR +148
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +129 -105 +7.6%
TOR ML -156 +105 -12.2%
STL +1.5 -164 -219 +6.5%
TOR -1.5 +136 +219 -11.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -12.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +7.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | August 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Connor Prielipp Home: Logan Gilbert
ERA: 4.73 ERA: 3.44
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 9.46 K/9: 9.53
BB/9: 3.24 BB/9: 1.93
FIP: 3.51 FIP: 3.18
IP: 72.3 IP: 125.7
xERA: 4.05 xERA: 3.64
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Logan Gilbert)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN SEA Lg Avg
Record 56-55 53-58
R/Game 4.71 3.99 4.50
RA/Game 4.95 3.98 4.50
OPS 0.724 0.686 0.720
wOBA 0.313 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.60 3.75 4.18
FIP 4.18 3.53 4.04
WHIP 1.37 1.19 1.30
K/9 8.44 8.68 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.477 0.501 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.77 3.42 4.24
BP FIP 4.24 3.50 4.07
BP WHIP 1.45 1.26
BP K/9 7.97 8.81
BP Quality* 54.4 44.6 46.2
BP IP 430.0 315.7
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Yoendrys Gómez (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Michael Rucker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Wilcox (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9738 (Temp: 0.9981 | Wind: 0.9756)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 3.7 - SEA 3.9
Simulated Avg: MIN 3.7 - SEA 3.9
Win Probability: MIN 47.5% - SEA 52.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +110 / SEA -110
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.5: 48.1%
Under 7.5: 51.9%
MIN +1.5: 65.6%
SEA -1.5: 34.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 1.9 - SEA 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 1.9 - SEA 2.0
F5 Win Prob: MIN 49.5% - SEA 50.5% (Tie: 19.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +102 / SEA -102
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML +139 +110 +5.7%
SEA ML -169 -110 -10.4%
MIN +1.5 -155 -191 +4.8%
SEA -1.5 +129 +191 -9.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -4.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -0.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | August 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jordan Hicks Home: Drew Rasmussen
ERA: 3.19 ERA: 3.07
WHIP: 1.48 WHIP: 0.93
K/9: 10.45 K/9: 9.05
BB/9: 6.39 BB/9: 1.54
FIP: 3.33 FIP: 3.0
IP: 31.0 IP: 111.3
xERA: 3.09 xERA: 3.12
xwOBA: 0.274 xwOBA: 0.275
Pitcher Edge: TB (Drew Rasmussen)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS TB Lg Avg
Record 58-51 64-45
R/Game 4.79 4.42 4.50
RA/Game 4.35 4.07 4.50
OPS 0.725 0.731 0.720
wOBA 0.311 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.05 3.72 4.18
FIP 3.97 3.99 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.15 1.30
K/9 8.65 8.14 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.544 0.537 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.11 3.87 4.24
BP FIP 4.25 4.15 4.07
BP WHIP 1.32 1.20
BP K/9 8.42 8.51
BP Quality* 52.7 48.6 46.2
BP IP 321.7 330.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Schweitzer (43 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Alex Cook (38 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 3.9 - TB 4.0
Simulated Avg: CWS 3.9 - TB 4.0
Win Probability: CWS 48.5% - TB 51.4%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +106 / TB -106
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 7.5: 50.5%
Under 7.5: 49.5%
CWS +1.5: 66.3%
TB -1.5: 33.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 1.9 - TB 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 1.9 - TB 1.8
F5 Win Prob: CWS 50.4% - TB 49.6% (Tie: 20.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -102 / TB +102
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +141 +106 +7.1%
TB ML -171 -106 -11.6%
CWS +1.5 -142 -197 +7.6%
TB -1.5 +118 +197 -12.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -1.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -2.9%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Chicago White Sox +1.5 (Run Line) [-142]
Model: 66.3% | Market: 58.7% | Edge: 7.6%
Fair ML: -197 | Kelly: 4.62%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00995
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
Regular Season | August 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tyler Phillips Home: Zac Thornton
ERA: 3.52 ERA: 2.43
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 0.91
K/9: 6.72 K/9: 6.67
BB/9: 4.06 BB/9: 2.12
FIP: 4.5 FIP: 3.2
IP: 84.3 IP: 29.7
xERA: 4.71 xERA: 4.55
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Zac Thornton)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA NYM Lg Avg
Record 56-55 47-64
R/Game 4.40 4.10 4.50
RA/Game 4.33 4.57 4.50
OPS 0.733 0.685 0.720
wOBA 0.316 0.296 0.310
ERA 4.05 4.11 4.18
FIP 3.83 3.83 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.29 1.30
K/9 8.58 9.14 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.451 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.41 3.50 4.24
BP FIP 3.62 3.76 4.07
BP WHIP 1.27 1.22
BP K/9 9.50 9.25
BP Quality* 47.1 44.2 46.2
BP IP 320.3 283.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Xzavion Curry (62 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Devin Williams (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9982 (Temp: 1.0162 | Wind: 0.9822)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 3.7 - NYM 4.2
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.6 - NYM 4.2
Win Probability: MIA 44.2% - NYM 55.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +126 / NYM -126
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 9.0: 31.5%
Under 9.0: 59.7%
MIA +1.5: 62.1%
NYM -1.5: 37.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 1.9 - NYM 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.9 - NYM 2.3
F5 Win Prob: MIA 42.1% - NYM 57.9% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +137 / NYM -137
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +113 +126 -2.7%
NYM ML -136 -126 -1.8%
MIA +1.5 -186 -164 -3.0%
NYM -1.5 +153 +164 -1.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -20.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +7.3%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.7% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.3%
Fair ML: -148 | Kelly: 3.84%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00996
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | August 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Braxton Ashcraft Home: Andrew Abbott
ERA: 4.05 ERA: 3.85
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 9.93 K/9: 7.23
BB/9: 2.21 BB/9: 4.15
FIP: 3.33 FIP: 4.77
IP: 122.3 IP: 117.0
xERA: 3.48 xERA: 4.74
xwOBA: 0.29 xwOBA: 0.334
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Braxton Ashcraft)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CIN Lg Avg
Record 55-56 52-57
R/Game 5.15 4.14 4.50
RA/Game 4.84 4.76 4.50
OPS 0.755 0.707 0.720
wOBA 0.327 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.29 4.44 4.18
FIP 3.72 4.63 4.04
WHIP 1.33 1.42 1.30
K/9 9.30 8.11 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.529 0.436 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 4.62 4.24
BP FIP 4.27 4.90 4.07
BP WHIP 1.46 1.45
BP K/9 9.01 8.30
BP Quality* 51.8 58.4 46.2
BP IP 350.7 409.0
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Antwone Kelly (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Caleb Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Pierce Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 41%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9939 (Temp: 1.0050 | Wind: 0.9890)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 6.2 - CIN 4.3
Simulated Avg: PIT 6.2 - CIN 4.3
Win Probability: PIT 66.1% - CIN 33.9%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -195 / CIN +195
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 8.5: 63.3%
Under 8.5: 36.6%
PIT -1.5: 52.3%
CIN +1.5: 47.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 3.3 - CIN 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 3.2 - CIN 2.1
F5 Win Prob: PIT 67.3% - CIN 32.7% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -206 / CIN +206
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML -115 -195 +12.6%
CIN ML -104 +195 -17.1%
PIT -1.5 +142 -110 +11.0%
CIN +1.5 -172 +110 -15.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +11.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -15.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -115 | Edge: 12.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00997
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | August 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cristopher Sánchez Home: Shane Baz
ERA: 2.73 ERA: 3.98
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 10.19 K/9: 7.89
BB/9: 1.82 BB/9: 3.25
FIP: 2.57 FIP: 3.39
IP: 138.7 IP: 122.0
xERA: 3.36 xERA: 4.31
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI BAL Lg Avg
Record 57-53 54-56
R/Game 4.34 4.61 4.50
RA/Game 4.49 4.81 4.50
OPS 0.702 0.716 0.720
wOBA 0.302 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.28 4.20 4.18
FIP 3.71 4.04 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.34 1.30
K/9 9.90 7.99 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.481 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.62 3.98 4.24
BP FIP 3.67 4.00 4.07
BP WHIP 1.40 1.26
BP K/9 10.29 8.51
BP Quality* 45.6 48.8 46.2
BP IP 319.3 391.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9960 (Temp: 1.0157 | Wind: 0.9806)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 4.2 - BAL 3.9
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.2 - BAL 3.9
Win Probability: PHI 53.3% - BAL 46.7%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -114 / BAL +114
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.5: 43.1%
Under 8.5: 56.9%
PHI -1.5: 36.6%
BAL +1.5: 63.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.2 - BAL 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.2 - BAL 1.8
F5 Win Prob: PHI 57.6% - BAL 42.4% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -136 / BAL +136
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -149 -114 -6.5%
BAL ML +123 +114 +1.8%
PHI -1.5 +114 +173 -10.1%
BAL +1.5 -137 -173 +5.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -9.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +4.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | August 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jacob deGrom Home: Ronel Blanco
ERA: 3.67 ERA: 8.1
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 10.77 K/9: 10.8
BB/9: 1.96 BB/9: 5.4
FIP: 3.25 FIP: 7.7
IP: 110.3 IP: 10.0
xERA: 3.53 xERA: 6.78
xwOBA: 0.292 xwOBA: 0.389
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Jacob deGrom)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX HOU Lg Avg
Record 55-55 56-55
R/Game 4.16 4.65 4.50
RA/Game 4.45 4.94 4.50
OPS 0.721 0.734 0.720
wOBA 0.312 0.313 0.310
ERA 4.31 4.67 4.18
FIP 4.00 4.54 4.04
WHIP 1.27 1.38 1.30
K/9 8.66 8.89 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.473 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.69 4.46 4.24
BP FIP 4.29 4.52 4.07
BP WHIP 1.34 1.33
BP K/9 7.71 9.02
BP Quality* 51.8 50.3 46.2
BP IP 316.3 404.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Luis Curvelo (54 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ben Peoples (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0228 (Temp: 1.0277 | Wind: 0.9952)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 5.4 - HOU 4.6
Simulated Avg: TEX 5.4 - HOU 4.6
Win Probability: TEX 57.5% - HOU 42.5%
Fair Moneyline: TEX -135 / HOU +135
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 8.5: 59.8%
Under 8.5: 40.2%
TEX -1.5: 42.8%
HOU +1.5: 57.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 3.4 - HOU 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 3.4 - HOU 2.2
F5 Win Prob: TEX 67.7% - HOU 32.3% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -210 / HOU +210
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -130 -135 +1.0%
HOU ML +108 +135 -5.6%
TEX -1.5 +130 +134 -0.7%
HOU +1.5 -157 -134 -3.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +7.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -12.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.91%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00998
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | August 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kohl Drake Home: Parker Messick
ERA: 5.0 ERA: 2.59
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 6.0 K/9: 8.76
BB/9: 4.0 BB/9: 2.59
FIP: 5.99 FIP: 3.16
IP: 9.0 IP: 125.3
xERA: 8.53 xERA: 3.14
xwOBA: 0.426 xwOBA: 0.276
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI CLE Lg Avg
Record 58-52 56-55
R/Game 4.51 3.90 4.50
RA/Game 4.48 4.05 4.50
OPS 0.704 0.676 0.720
wOBA 0.303 0.294 0.310
ERA 4.17 3.72 4.18
FIP 4.31 3.72 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.26 1.30
K/9 6.84 9.33 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.503 0.482 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.86 3.73 4.24
BP FIP 3.75 3.50 4.07
BP WHIP 1.20 1.32
BP K/9 7.68 10.22
BP Quality* 43.9 44.4 46.2
BP IP 358.7 371.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0243 (Temp: 1.0156 | Wind: 1.0086)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 3.6 - CLE 4.0
Simulated Avg: ARI 3.6 - CLE 4.0
Win Probability: ARI 45.7% - CLE 54.3%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +119 / CLE -119
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 8.5: 37.8%
Under 8.5: 62.2%
ARI +1.5: 64.1%
CLE -1.5: 35.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 1.8 - CLE 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 1.8 - CLE 2.3
F5 Win Prob: ARI 40.9% - CLE 59.1% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +144 / CLE -144
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML +148 +119 +5.4%
CLE ML -180 -119 -10.0%
ARI +1.5 -143 -178 +5.2%
CLE -1.5 +119 +178 -9.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -14.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +9.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 62.2% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.8%
Fair ML: -165 | Kelly: 5.16%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-00999
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | August 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Miles Mikolas Home: Reynaldo López
ERA: 5.65 ERA: 3.64
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 4.59 K/9: 8.29
BB/9: 1.85 BB/9: 3.64
FIP: 5.63 FIP: 4.29
IP: 102.0 IP: 71.7
xERA: 5.2 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.348 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Reynaldo López)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH ATL Lg Avg
Record 55-56 65-45
R/Game 5.42 4.88 4.50
RA/Game 5.22 3.96 4.50
OPS 0.775 0.730 0.720
wOBA 0.330 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.78 3.69 4.18
FIP 4.57 4.05 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.25 1.30
K/9 7.72 8.68 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.518 0.594 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.94 3.69 4.24
BP FIP 5.14 3.84 4.07
BP WHIP 1.59 1.21
BP K/9 8.36 8.94
BP Quality* 60.4 49.6 46.2
BP IP 368.3 356.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Trevor Williams (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Elieser Hernández (62 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Danny Young (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 53%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9975 (Temp: 1.0094 | Wind: 0.9882)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 5.6 - ATL 6.6
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.6 - ATL 6.7
Win Probability: WSH 41.9% - ATL 58.1%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +139 / ATL -139
Avg Total Runs: 12.3
Over 9.5: 67.2%
Under 9.5: 32.8%
WSH +1.5: 54.8%
ATL -1.5: 45.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 3.1 - ATL 3.7
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 3.1 - ATL 3.6
F5 Win Prob: WSH 42.8% - ATL 57.2% (Tie: 13.1%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH +133 / ATL -133
F5 Avg Total: 6.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +150 +139 +1.9%
ATL ML -182 -139 -6.4%
WSH +1.5 -135 -121 -2.7%
ATL -1.5 +112 +121 -1.9%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +14.8%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -19.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 9.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 14.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01000
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | August 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Max Fried Home: David Peterson
ERA: 3.23 ERA: 5.8
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 1.52
K/9: 7.88 K/9: 7.32
BB/9: 2.84 BB/9: 3.8
FIP: 2.48 FIP: 4.11
IP: 69.7 IP: 94.7
xERA: 2.51 xERA: 5.13
xwOBA: 0.247 xwOBA: 0.346
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Max Fried)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY CHC Lg Avg
Record 62-48 62-48
R/Game 4.62 5.13 4.50
RA/Game 3.81 4.34 4.50
OPS 0.724 0.752 0.720
wOBA 0.310 0.325 0.310
ERA 3.28 4.13 4.18
FIP 3.51 4.55 4.04
WHIP 1.18 1.26 1.30
K/9 9.02 7.83 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.587 0.576 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.03 4.51 4.24
BP FIP 3.64 4.71 4.07
BP WHIP 1.20 1.38
BP K/9 8.51 7.95
BP Quality* 42.1 53.4 46.2
BP IP 401.0 411.0
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 29 mph)
Precip Chance: 30%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9747 (Temp: 0.9977 | Wind: 0.9769)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 5.3 - CHC 4.0
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.3 - CHC 4.0
Win Probability: NYY 62.1% - CHC 37.9%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -164 / CHC +164
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 6.5: 71.7%
Under 6.5: 28.3%
NYY -1.5: 47.1%
CHC +1.5: 52.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 3.0 - CHC 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 3.0 - CHC 1.9
F5 Win Prob: NYY 68.3% - CHC 31.7% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -215 / CHC +215
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -103 -164 +11.4%
CHC ML -117 +164 -16.0%
NYY -1.5 +167 +112 +9.7%
CHC +1.5 -204 -112 -14.2%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +19.3%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -24.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 6.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 19.4%
[HELD FOR REVIEW] high-edge total -> output/TOTALS_REVIEW_QUEUE.json
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | August 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Luinder Avila Home: Ryan Feltner
ERA: 4.95 ERA: 5.73
WHIP: 1.57 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 7.89 K/9: 6.88
BB/9: 5.21 BB/9: 3.69
FIP: 4.24 FIP: 5.56
IP: 67.3 IP: 70.7
xERA: 4.83 xERA: 5.85
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.366
Pitcher Edge: KC (Luinder Avila)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC COL Lg Avg
Record 46-65 43-67
R/Game 4.14 4.71 4.50
RA/Game 5.01 5.72 4.50
OPS 0.710 0.737 0.720
wOBA 0.305 0.317 0.310
ERA 4.77 5.50 4.18
FIP 4.56 4.68 4.04
WHIP 1.42 1.52 1.30
K/9 7.64 7.16 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.414 0.412 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.65 5.06 4.24
BP FIP 5.17 4.32 4.07
BP WHIP 1.58 1.53
BP K/9 7.60 7.54
BP Quality* 58.1 53.3 46.2
BP IP 406.3 377.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0480 (Temp: 1.0279 | Wind: 1.0196)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 6.3 - COL 6.8
Simulated Avg: KC 6.3 - COL 6.8
Win Probability: KC 46.3% - COL 53.7%
Fair Moneyline: KC +116 / COL -116
Avg Total Runs: 13.0
Over 11.5: 57.9%
Under 11.5: 42.1%
KC -1.5: 34.5%
COL +1.5: 65.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 3.8 - COL 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 3.7 - COL 3.5
F5 Win Prob: KC 52.5% - COL 47.5% (Tie: 12.6%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -111 / COL +111
F5 Avg Total: 7.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +100 +116 -3.7%
COL ML -120 -116 -0.8%
KC -1.5 +148 +190 -5.8%
COL +1.5 -180 -190 +1.2%
O 11.5 -110 N/A +5.5%
U 11.5 -110 N/A -10.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | August 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tyler Mahle Home: Walker Buehler
ERA: 4.96 ERA: 5.13
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 8.09 K/9: 8.19
BB/9: 3.54 BB/9: 3.78
FIP: 4.38 FIP: 4.23
IP: 89.0 IP: 100.0
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 4.43
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF SD Lg Avg
Record 47-63 56-54
R/Game 4.19 4.19 4.50
RA/Game 4.65 4.32 4.50
OPS 0.723 0.695 0.720
wOBA 0.308 0.300 0.310
ERA 4.36 4.13 4.18
FIP 4.09 4.07 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.32 1.30
K/9 7.70 8.32 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.452 0.486 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.55 2.96 4.24
BP FIP 4.23 3.04 4.07
BP WHIP 1.46 1.16
BP K/9 7.89 10.69
BP Quality* 52.2 39.8 46.2
BP IP 344.3 234.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Adrian Houser (64 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (49 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Germán Márquez (70 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0033 (Temp: 1.0076 | Wind: 0.9957)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 3.9 - SD 4.5
Simulated Avg: SF 3.9 - SD 4.5
Win Probability: SF 44.0% - SD 56.0%
Fair Moneyline: SF +128 / SD -128
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.5: 46.1%
Under 8.5: 53.9%
SF +1.5: 61.1%
SD -1.5: 38.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 2.4 - SD 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.4 - SD 2.4
F5 Win Prob: SF 49.8% - SD 50.2% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +101 / SD -101
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +124 +128 -0.7%
SD ML -150 -128 -3.9%
SF +1.5 -163 -157 -0.9%
SD -1.5 +135 +157 -3.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -6.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +1.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | August 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Payton Tolle Home: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
ERA: 3.32 ERA: 2.72
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 0.9
K/9: 9.76 K/9: 8.45
BB/9: 2.56 BB/9: 2.01
FIP: 3.29 FIP: 3.24
IP: 95.0 IP: 125.7
xERA: 2.91 xERA: 3.19
xwOBA: 0.266 xwOBA: 0.278
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS LAD Lg Avg
Record 58-51 69-41
R/Game 4.25 5.15 4.50
RA/Game 3.74 3.74 4.50
OPS 0.710 0.774 0.720
wOBA 0.307 0.330 0.310
ERA 3.54 3.61 4.18
FIP 3.61 3.76 4.04
WHIP 1.23 1.14 1.30
K/9 8.63 9.13 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.558 0.642 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.51 4.24 4.24
BP FIP 3.63 3.91 4.07
BP WHIP 1.26 1.28
BP K/9 8.65 9.75
BP Quality* 45.5 50.8 46.2
BP IP 315.3 326.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brayan Bello (58 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Cole Irvin (102 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Will Klein (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Edwin Díaz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0030 (Temp: 1.0087 | Wind: 0.9943)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 3.6 - LAD 4.3
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.6 - LAD 4.3
Win Probability: BOS 41.6% - LAD 58.4%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +140 / LAD -140
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 7.5: 51.2%
Under 7.5: 48.8%
BOS +1.5: 59.5%
LAD -1.5: 40.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 1.7 - LAD 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.7 - LAD 2.1
F5 Win Prob: BOS 40.9% - LAD 59.1% (Tie: 19.6%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +144 / LAD -144
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML +141 +140 +0.1%
LAD ML -171 -140 -4.7%
BOS +1.5 -155 -147 -1.3%
LAD -1.5 +128 +147 -3.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -1.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -3.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | August 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Robert Gasser Home: José Soriano
ERA: 4.71 ERA: 3.29
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 8.16 K/9: 9.29
BB/9: 2.2 BB/9: 4.17
FIP: 4.51 FIP: 3.69
IP: 57.3 IP: 123.0
xERA: 3.74 xERA: 4.34
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: LAA (José Soriano)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL LAA Lg Avg
Record 68-41 42-68
R/Game 5.06 4.24 4.50
RA/Game 3.82 4.92 4.50
OPS 0.739 0.699 0.720
wOBA 0.318 0.303 0.310
ERA 3.50 4.55 4.18
FIP 3.44 4.15 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.37 1.30
K/9 9.76 9.09 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.627 0.432 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.65 4.37 4.24
BP FIP 3.69 4.08 4.07
BP WHIP 1.29 1.39
BP K/9 9.03 9.82
BP Quality* 42.1 48.5 46.2
BP IP 350.0 381.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: José Fermin (36 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9948 (Temp: 1.0099 | Wind: 0.9851)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 4.8 - LAA 4.2
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.8 - LAA 4.3
Win Probability: MIL 55.3% - LAA 44.7%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -124 / LAA +124
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.5: 52.5%
Under 8.5: 47.5%
MIL -1.5: 39.4%
LAA +1.5: 60.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.6 - LAA 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.5 - LAA 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIL 51.8% - LAA 48.2% (Tie: 16.3%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -107 / LAA +107
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -118 -124 +1.1%
LAA ML -102 +124 -5.8%
MIL -1.5 +142 +154 -2.0%
LAA +1.5 -173 -154 -2.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Athletics
Regular Season | August 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Framber Valdez Home: Jack Perkins
ERA: 4.53 ERA: 6.45
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 7.31 K/9: 10.54
BB/9: 3.26 BB/9: 3.56
FIP: 3.94 FIP: 4.04
IP: 113.3 IP: 68.3
xERA: 4.28 xERA: 4.05
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.311
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET ATH Lg Avg
Record 52-58 45-65
R/Game 4.42 4.37 4.50
RA/Game 3.96 5.65 4.50
OPS 0.723 0.722 0.720
wOBA 0.311 0.310 0.310
ERA 3.60 5.34 4.18
FIP 3.68 4.82 4.04
WHIP 1.21 1.49 1.30
K/9 8.50 8.61 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.550 0.385 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.04 5.77 4.24
BP FIP 4.15 4.79 4.07
BP WHIP 1.33 1.57
BP K/9 8.63 9.17
BP Quality* 48.9 62.3 46.2
BP IP 349.3 413.0
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ty Madden (56 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Luis Morales (47 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brady Basso (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hayden Juenger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9974 (Temp: 1.0101 | Wind: 0.9874)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 5.4 - ATH 4.7
Simulated Avg: DET 5.3 - ATH 4.7
Win Probability: DET 55.0% - ATH 45.0%
Fair Moneyline: DET -122 / ATH +122
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 10.5: 43.7%
Under 10.5: 56.3%
DET -1.5: 40.4%
ATH +1.5: 59.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.8 - ATH 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.8 - ATH 2.5
F5 Win Prob: DET 54.0% - ATH 46.0% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -117 / ATH +117
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML -149 -122 -4.8%
ATH ML +123 +122 +0.2%
DET -1.5 +103 +148 -8.9%
ATH +1.5 -125 -148 +4.1%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -8.7%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +3.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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