2026-08-02
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-02
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | August 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zack Wheeler Home: Kyle Bradish
ERA: 2.53 ERA: 3.74
WHIP: 0.92 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 10.75 K/9: 8.69
BB/9: 2.01 BB/9: 3.97
FIP: 3.02 FIP: 3.81
IP: 103.0 IP: 118.0
xERA: 2.65 xERA: 3.99
xwOBA: 0.254 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Zack Wheeler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI BAL Lg Avg
Record 58-53 54-57
R/Game 4.34 4.57 4.50
RA/Game 4.45 4.81 4.50
OPS 0.702 0.712 0.720
wOBA 0.302 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.24 4.21 4.18
FIP 3.69 4.03 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.34 1.30
K/9 9.94 7.98 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.489 0.476 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 4.04 4.24
BP FIP 3.65 4.00 4.07
BP WHIP 1.39 1.27
BP K/9 10.28 8.52
BP Quality* 45.3 44.6 46.2
BP IP 322.3 394.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Derek Hill
Derek Hill Outfielder OPS: 0.722 (146 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.2% of full strength
BAL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Blaze Alexander, Adley Rutschman, Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo
Blaze Alexander Third Base OPS: 0.807 (221 AB)
Adley Rutschman Catcher OPS: 0.764 (247 AB)
Samuel Basallo Catcher OPS: 0.755 (282 AB)
Coby Mayo Third Base OPS: 0.677 (256 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0005 (Temp: 1.0219 | Wind: 0.9790)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 4.0 - BAL 3.4
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.0 - BAL 3.4
Win Probability: PHI 56.0% - BAL 44.0%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -127 / BAL +127
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 8.0: 36.4%
Under 8.0: 53.6%
PHI -1.5: 38.1%
BAL +1.5: 61.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.2 - BAL 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.2 - BAL 1.6
F5 Win Prob: PHI 62.4% - BAL 37.6% (Tie: 19.1%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -166 / BAL +166
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -136 -127 -1.6%
BAL ML +113 +127 -2.9%
PHI -1.5 +124 +163 -6.6%
BAL +1.5 -150 -163 +1.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -15.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +1.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | August 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cade Cavalli Home: JR Ritchie
ERA: 3.55 ERA: 4.5
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 10.03 K/9: 8.17
BB/9: 2.78 BB/9: 5.5
FIP: 2.91 FIP: 5.29
IP: 116.7 IP: 54.0
xERA: 4.02 xERA: 4.8
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.336
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Cade Cavalli)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH ATL Lg Avg
Record 55-57 66-45
R/Game 5.40 4.91 4.50
RA/Game 5.24 3.95 4.50
OPS 0.772 0.732 0.720
wOBA 0.329 0.315 0.310
ERA 4.78 3.69 4.18
FIP 4.60 4.04 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.25 1.30
K/9 7.71 8.66 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.514 0.598 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.91 3.74 4.24
BP FIP 5.13 3.85 4.07
BP WHIP 1.59 1.21
BP K/9 8.38 8.89
BP Quality* 60.2 45.3 46.2
BP IP 370.3 358.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Riley Cornelio (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Danny Young (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Joey Wiemer, Andrés Chaparro
Joey Wiemer Outfielder OPS: 0.912 (70 AB)
Andrés Chaparro First Base OPS: 0.850 (81 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.3% of full strength
ATL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Dominic Smith, Eli White
Dominic Smith Designated Hitter OPS: 0.728 (235 AB)
Eli White Outfielder OPS: 0.691 (133 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 16%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9930 (Temp: 1.0196 | Wind: 0.9739)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 5.4 - ATL 5.0
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.5 - ATL 5.0
Win Probability: WSH 53.8% - ATL 46.2%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -117 / ATL +117
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 8.5: 63.2%
Under 8.5: 36.8%
WSH +1.5: 68.0%
ATL -1.5: 32.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 3.3 - ATL 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 3.2 - ATL 2.2
F5 Win Prob: WSH 65.1% - ATL 34.9% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -187 / ATL +187
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +102 -117 +4.3%
ATL ML -122 +117 -8.8%
WSH +1.5 -199 -213 +1.5%
ATL -1.5 +163 +213 -6.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +10.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -15.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01001
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | August 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Matthew Liberatore Home: Max Scherzer
ERA: 5.26 ERA: 9.49
WHIP: 1.56 WHIP: 1.82
K/9: 8.77 K/9: 6.57
BB/9: 3.51 BB/9: 5.11
FIP: 4.73 FIP: 8.08
IP: 102.7 IP: 24.7
xERA: 5.13 xERA: 6.12
xwOBA: 0.346 xwOBA: 0.373
Pitcher Edge: STL (Matthew Liberatore)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL TOR Lg Avg
Record 54-57 52-59
R/Game 4.31 3.95 4.50
RA/Game 4.49 4.43 4.50
OPS 0.691 0.684 0.720
wOBA 0.300 0.296 0.310
ERA 4.17 4.09 4.18
FIP 3.93 3.86 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.31 1.30
K/9 7.68 9.02 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.481 0.447 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.27 3.39 4.24
BP FIP 3.96 3.32 4.07
BP WHIP 1.37 1.31
BP K/9 7.92 9.11
BP Quality* 50.8 41.1 46.2
BP IP 396.7 247.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Peter Strzelecki (B2B, 30 pitches)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: JJ Wetherholt, Nelson Velázquez
JJ Wetherholt Second Base OPS: 0.736 (414 AB)
Nelson Velázquez Outfielder OPS: 0.720 (70 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.1% of full strength
TOR (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jesús Sánchez, Nathan Lukes, Brandon Valenzuela, Yohendrick Piñango
Jesús Sánchez Outfielder OPS: 0.747 (217 AB)
Nathan Lukes Outfielder OPS: 0.720 (242 AB)
Brandon Valenzuela Catcher OPS: 0.718 (184 AB)
Yohendrick Piñango Outfielder OPS: 0.702 (169 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.5% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 5.1 - TOR 4.3
Simulated Avg: STL 5.1 - TOR 4.3
Win Probability: STL 56.8% - TOR 43.2%
Fair Moneyline: STL -132 / TOR +132
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 9.0: 46.0%
Under 9.0: 45.0%
STL +1.5: 71.7%
TOR -1.5: 28.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 3.4 - TOR 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 3.4 - TOR 2.4
F5 Win Prob: STL 63.4% - TOR 36.6% (Tie: 13.9%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -173 / TOR +173
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +113 -132 +9.9%
TOR ML -136 +132 -14.4%
STL +1.5 -188 -253 +6.4%
TOR -1.5 +154 +253 -11.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -6.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -7.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | August 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Merrill Kelly Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 4.86 ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 5.84 K/9: 11.34
BB/9: 3.46 BB/9: 2.57
FIP: 5.57 FIP: 3.48
IP: 109.3 IP: 133.3
xERA: 7.13 xERA: 3.99
xwOBA: 0.397 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Gavin Williams)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI CLE Lg Avg
Record 59-52 56-56
R/Game 4.58 3.94 4.50
RA/Game 4.51 4.12 4.50
OPS 0.709 0.680 0.720
wOBA 0.305 0.295 0.310
ERA 4.20 3.79 4.18
FIP 4.31 3.75 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.27 1.30
K/9 6.87 9.32 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.479 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.93 3.92 4.24
BP FIP 3.71 3.61 4.07
BP WHIP 1.20 1.33
BP K/9 7.71 10.14
BP Quality* 48.5 45.6 46.2
BP IP 354.7 376.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Kevin Ginkel (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gerardo Carrillo (31 pitches yesterday)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Will Dion (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: James McCann, Ryan Waldschmidt
James McCann Catcher OPS: 0.793 (87 AB)
Ryan Waldschmidt Outfielder OPS: 0.746 (151 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.0% of full strength
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Austin Hedges, Rhys Hoskins, Angel Martínez
Austin Hedges Catcher OPS: 0.740 (148 AB)
Rhys Hoskins First Base OPS: 0.695 (240 AB)
Angel Martínez Outfielder OPS: 0.674 (249 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 21%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9926 (Temp: 1.0117 | Wind: 0.9811)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 3.8 - CLE 4.7
Simulated Avg: ARI 3.8 - CLE 4.7
Win Probability: ARI 41.6% - CLE 58.4%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +140 / CLE -140
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.0: 46.9%
Under 8.0: 43.5%
ARI +1.5: 58.6%
CLE -1.5: 41.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 2.0 - CLE 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.0 - CLE 2.9
F5 Win Prob: ARI 36.1% - CLE 63.9% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +177 / CLE -177
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +144 +140 +0.6%
CLE ML -175 -140 -5.2%
ARI +1.5 -149 -141 -1.3%
CLE -1.5 +124 +141 -3.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | August 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Mitch Keller Home: Chase Burns
ERA: 4.83 ERA: 2.4
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 6.89 K/9: 10.22
BB/9: 3.01 BB/9: 3.28
FIP: 4.06 FIP: 3.42
IP: 113.7 IP: 112.7
xERA: 5.1 xERA: 3.19
xwOBA: 0.345 xwOBA: 0.278
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Chase Burns)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CIN Lg Avg
Record 56-56 52-58
R/Game 5.14 4.11 4.50
RA/Game 4.80 4.75 4.50
OPS 0.754 0.705 0.720
wOBA 0.326 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.26 4.43 4.18
FIP 3.72 4.63 4.04
WHIP 1.32 1.42 1.30
K/9 9.31 8.06 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.531 0.434 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.45 4.60 4.24
BP FIP 4.26 4.88 4.07
BP WHIP 1.45 1.45
BP K/9 9.01 8.26
BP Quality* 53.1 58.3 46.2
BP IP 351.7 413.0
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Carmen Mlodzinski (47 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Caleb Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Oneil Cruz, Ryan O'Hearn, Konnor Griffin
Oneil Cruz Outfielder OPS: 0.822 (250 AB)
Ryan O'Hearn First Base OPS: 0.788 (359 AB)
Konnor Griffin Shortstop OPS: 0.736 (225 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.7% of full strength
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Spencer Steer, Blake Dunn, Jose Trevino
Spencer Steer First Base OPS: 0.740 (340 AB)
Blake Dunn Outfielder OPS: 0.722 (142 AB)
Jose Trevino Catcher OPS: 0.688 (84 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9893 (Temp: 0.9993 | Wind: 0.9900)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 4.7 - CIN 4.7
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.7 - CIN 4.7
Win Probability: PIT 49.6% - CIN 50.4%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +102 / CIN -102
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.5: 55.7%
Under 8.5: 44.3%
PIT +1.5: 65.2%
CIN -1.5: 34.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 2.0 - CIN 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.0 - CIN 2.5
F5 Win Prob: PIT 41.3% - CIN 58.7% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +142 / CIN -142
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML +114 +102 +2.9%
CIN ML -137 -102 -7.4%
PIT +1.5 -175 -188 +1.6%
CIN -1.5 +144 +188 -6.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +3.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | August 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Anthony Kay Home: Griffin Jax
ERA: 4.25 ERA: 3.74
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 7.55 K/9: 9.55
BB/9: 3.56 BB/9: 3.12
FIP: 4.36 FIP: 3.97
IP: 103.7 IP: 86.7
xERA: 5.13 xERA: 4.71
xwOBA: 0.346 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: TB (Griffin Jax)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS TB Lg Avg
Record 58-52 65-45
R/Game 4.75 4.39 4.50
RA/Game 4.32 4.04 4.50
OPS 0.722 0.729 0.720
wOBA 0.310 0.313 0.310
ERA 4.03 3.68 4.18
FIP 3.95 3.95 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.15 1.30
K/9 8.65 8.21 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.543 0.538 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.07 3.84 4.24
BP FIP 4.22 4.11 4.07
BP WHIP 1.32 1.20
BP K/9 8.45 8.59
BP Quality* 50.9 48.3 46.2
BP IP 324.7 333.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Noah Schultz (67 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Randal Grichuk, Braden Montgomery
Randal Grichuk Unknown OPS: 0.812 (158 AB)
Braden Montgomery Outfielder OPS: 0.699 (159 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.6% of full strength
TB (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Victor Mesa Jr., Jake Fraley
Victor Mesa Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.718 (123 AB)
Jake Fraley Outfielder OPS: 0.690 (82 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 4.3 - TB 4.6
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.3 - TB 4.6
Win Probability: CWS 47.2% - TB 52.8%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +112 / TB -112
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 7.5: 60.4%
Under 7.5: 39.6%
CWS +1.5: 63.5%
TB -1.5: 36.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.4 - TB 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.4 - TB 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CWS 47.7% - TB 52.3% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +110 / TB -110
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +129 +112 +3.5%
TB ML -156 -112 -8.1%
CWS +1.5 -169 -174 +0.7%
TB -1.5 +139 +174 -5.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +8.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -12.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.4% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: -153 | Kelly: 4.22%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01002
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] NYM starter (id 476594) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (the model never uses prior-season data).
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
Regular Season | August 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sandy Alcantara Home: Player 476594
ERA: 3.82 ERA: 0.0
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 0.0
K/9: 6.87 K/9: 0.0
BB/9: 2.33 BB/9: 0.0
FIP: 3.82 FIP: 0.0
IP: 150.7 IP: 0.0
xERA: 3.77 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.301 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Player 476594)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA NYM Lg Avg
Record 57-55 47-65
R/Game 4.41 4.08 4.50
RA/Game 4.31 4.58 4.50
OPS 0.734 0.685 0.720
wOBA 0.316 0.296 0.310
ERA 4.03 4.12 4.18
FIP 3.82 3.85 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.29 1.30
K/9 8.55 9.11 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.510 0.447 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.40 3.61 4.24
BP FIP 3.62 3.78 4.07
BP WHIP 1.26 1.24
BP K/9 9.47 9.36
BP Quality* 47.0 43.3 46.2
BP IP 321.3 264.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Lake Bachar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John King (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jonathan Pintaro (43 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Juan Soto, Tyrone Taylor, MJ Melendez
Juan Soto Outfielder OPS: 0.947 (293 AB)
Tyrone Taylor Outfielder OPS: 0.793 (145 AB)
MJ Melendez Designated Hitter OPS: 0.665 (120 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 16 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), strong crosswind (16 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0023 (Temp: 1.0177 | Wind: 0.9849)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 3.6 - NYM 3.5
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.6 - NYM 3.5
Win Probability: MIA 50.1% - NYM 49.9%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -100 / NYM +100
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 8.5: 33.3%
Under 8.5: 66.7%
MIA -1.5: 31.7%
NYM +1.5: 68.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 1.9 - NYM 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.9 - NYM 1.8
F5 Win Prob: MIA 50.2% - NYM 49.8% (Tie: 20.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -101 / NYM +101
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML -123 -100 -5.1%
NYM ML +102 +100 +0.4%
MIA -1.5 +139 +215 -10.1%
NYM +1.5 -168 -215 +5.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -19.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +14.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | August 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kumar Rocker Home: Peter Lambert
ERA: 4.03 ERA: 3.06
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 8.15 K/9: 8.74
BB/9: 3.33 BB/9: 3.41
FIP: 4.04 FIP: 3.68
IP: 102.7 IP: 103.0
xERA: 4.58 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.288
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Peter Lambert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX HOU Lg Avg
Record 55-56 57-55
R/Game 4.16 4.65 4.50
RA/Game 4.45 4.93 4.50
OPS 0.721 0.735 0.720
wOBA 0.312 0.313 0.310
ERA 4.32 4.66 4.18
FIP 3.99 4.54 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.38 1.30
K/9 8.65 8.90 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.469 0.474 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.44 4.34 4.24
BP FIP 4.17 4.44 4.07
BP WHIP 1.35 1.33
BP K/9 8.08 9.02
BP Quality* 48.9 51.0 46.2
BP IP 358.7 398.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0504 (Temp: 1.0308 | Wind: 1.0191)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 4.0 - HOU 5.1
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.0 - HOU 5.1
Win Probability: TEX 39.2% - HOU 60.8%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +155 / HOU -155
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.5: 53.2%
Under 8.5: 46.8%
TEX +1.5: 55.4%
HOU -1.5: 44.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.0 - HOU 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.0 - HOU 2.8
F5 Win Prob: TEX 36.8% - HOU 63.2% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +172 / HOU -172
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML +118 +155 -6.7%
HOU ML -142 -155 +2.1%
TEX +1.5 -182 -124 -9.1%
HOU -1.5 +150 +124 +4.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -5.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | August 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gerrit Cole Home: Colin Rea
ERA: 3.57 ERA: 4.67
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 9.66 K/9: 6.69
BB/9: 1.85 BB/9: 3.22
FIP: 3.67 FIP: 4.67
IP: 68.0 IP: 111.7
xERA: 3.28 xERA: 5.52
xwOBA: 0.282 xwOBA: 0.357
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Gerrit Cole)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY CHC Lg Avg
Record 62-49 63-48
R/Game 4.59 5.13 4.50
RA/Game 3.82 4.32 4.50
OPS 0.723 0.752 0.720
wOBA 0.310 0.325 0.310
ERA 3.30 4.11 4.18
FIP 3.52 4.54 4.04
WHIP 1.18 1.26 1.30
K/9 9.01 7.84 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.584 0.578 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.10 4.48 4.24
BP FIP 3.70 4.71 4.07
BP WHIP 1.21 1.39
BP K/9 8.45 7.92
BP Quality* 44.2 53.4 46.2
BP IP 403.7 413.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Angel Chivilli (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 25 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), wind out (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0683 (Temp: 0.9993 | Wind: 1.0690)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 5.9 - CHC 5.2
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.9 - CHC 5.1
Win Probability: NYY 56.2% - CHC 43.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -128 / CHC +128
Avg Total Runs: 11.0
Over 6.5: 80.7%
Under 6.5: 19.4%
NYY -1.5: 42.4%
CHC +1.5: 57.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 3.3 - CHC 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 3.3 - CHC 2.7
F5 Win Prob: NYY 59.2% - CHC 40.8% (Tie: 14.0%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -145 / CHC +145
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -127 -128 +0.3%
CHC ML +105 +128 -5.0%
NYY -1.5 +143 +136 +1.3%
CHC +1.5 -173 -136 -5.8%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +28.3%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -33.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 6.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 28.3%
[HELD FOR REVIEW] high-edge total -> output/TOTALS_REVIEW_QUEUE.json
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | August 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Seth Lugo Home: Kyle Freeland
ERA: 4.22 ERA: 7.34
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.55
K/9: 6.99 K/9: 7.7
BB/9: 2.91 BB/9: 1.9
FIP: 4.09 FIP: 4.77
IP: 123.7 IP: 99.3
xERA: 5.38 xERA: 5.63
xwOBA: 0.353 xwOBA: 0.36
Pitcher Edge: KC (Seth Lugo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC COL Lg Avg
Record 46-66 44-67
R/Game 4.16 4.77 4.50
RA/Game 5.07 5.72 4.50
OPS 0.713 0.741 0.720
wOBA 0.307 0.319 0.310
ERA 4.84 5.50 4.18
FIP 4.59 4.69 4.04
WHIP 1.43 1.52 1.30
K/9 7.65 7.15 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.410 0.418 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.71 5.03 4.24
BP FIP 5.19 4.30 4.07
BP WHIP 1.59 1.53
BP K/9 7.63 7.54
BP Quality* 66.0 51.6 46.2
BP IP 411.7 379.3
Bullpen Edge: COL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Easton McGee (B2B, 36 pitches)
TIRED: Lucas Erceg (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Strahm (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Lange (34 pitches yesterday)
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 102°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (102°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0715 (Temp: 1.0446 | Wind: 1.0258)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 6.3 - COL 7.3
Simulated Avg: KC 6.4 - COL 7.3
Win Probability: KC 43.2% - COL 56.8%
Fair Moneyline: KC +131 / COL -131
Avg Total Runs: 13.7
Over 11.5: 61.6%
Under 11.5: 38.4%
KC +1.5: 55.2%
COL -1.5: 44.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 3.9 - COL 3.6
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 3.9 - COL 3.6
F5 Win Prob: KC 52.3% - COL 47.7% (Tie: 11.9%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -110 / COL +110
F5 Avg Total: 7.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +109 +131 -4.6%
COL ML -131 -131 +0.1%
KC +1.5 -176 -123 -8.6%
COL -1.5 +145 +123 +4.0%
O 11.5 -110 N/A +9.2%
U 11.5 -110 N/A -14.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 11.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.6% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.2%
Fair ML: -161 | Kelly: 4.85%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01003
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | August 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jacob Misiorowski Home: Walbert Ureña
ERA: 1.58 ERA: 2.7
WHIP: 0.75 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 13.88 K/9: 8.49
BB/9: 2.1 BB/9: 4.73
FIP: 1.8 FIP: 3.63
IP: 120.0 IP: 93.3
xERA: 1.96 xERA: 3.26
xwOBA: 0.218 xwOBA: 0.281
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL LAA Lg Avg
Record 69-41 42-69
R/Game 5.05 4.21 4.50
RA/Game 3.79 4.90 4.50
OPS 0.737 0.697 0.720
wOBA 0.317 0.302 0.310
ERA 3.48 4.54 4.18
FIP 3.42 4.15 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.37 1.30
K/9 9.79 9.09 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.628 0.431 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.63 4.60 4.24
BP FIP 3.67 4.28 4.07
BP WHIP 1.29 1.40
BP K/9 9.03 10.09
BP Quality* 46.4 51.7 46.2
BP IP 352.0 287.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Samy Natera Jr. (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brett Kerry (55 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0057 (Temp: 1.0230 | Wind: 0.9832)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 4.6 - LAA 3.1
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.6 - LAA 3.1
Win Probability: MIL 65.8% - LAA 34.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -193 / LAA +193
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.5: 49.1%
Under 7.5: 50.9%
MIL -1.5: 48.5%
LAA +1.5: 51.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.2 - LAA 1.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.2 - LAA 1.2
F5 Win Prob: MIL 71.4% - LAA 28.6% (Tie: 20.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -249 / LAA +249
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -232 -193 -4.1%
LAA ML +188 +193 -0.5%
MIL -1.5 -132 +106 -8.4%
LAA +1.5 +110 -106 +3.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -3.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -1.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Athletics
Regular Season | August 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Keider Montero Home: Gage Jump
ERA: 3.34 ERA: 4.0
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 6.44 K/9: 9.71
BB/9: 1.88 BB/9: 3.57
FIP: 3.59 FIP: 3.58
IP: 110.3 IP: 63.0
xERA: 3.48 xERA: 4.07
xwOBA: 0.29 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET ATH Lg Avg
Record 53-58 45-66
R/Game 4.45 4.39 4.50
RA/Game 3.98 5.68 4.50
OPS 0.725 0.724 0.720
wOBA 0.312 0.311 0.310
ERA 3.62 5.37 4.18
FIP 3.68 4.83 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.49 1.30
K/9 8.51 8.63 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.551 0.384 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.12 5.77 4.24
BP FIP 4.17 4.77 4.07
BP WHIP 1.35 1.58
BP K/9 8.66 9.14
BP Quality* 46.4 60.8 46.2
BP IP 351.3 416.7
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Scott Blewett (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Suarez (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0109 (Temp: 1.0216 | Wind: 0.9895)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 4.9 - ATH 4.2
Simulated Avg: DET 4.9 - ATH 4.2
Win Probability: DET 56.5% - ATH 43.5%
Fair Moneyline: DET -130 / ATH +130
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 11.0: 28.0%
Under 11.0: 64.6%
DET -1.5: 41.0%
ATH +1.5: 59.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 2.4 - ATH 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.4 - ATH 2.1
F5 Win Prob: DET 53.8% - ATH 46.2% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -117 / ATH +117
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -115 -130 +3.0%
ATH ML -104 +130 -7.5%
DET -1.5 +134 +144 -1.8%
ATH +1.5 -162 -144 -2.8%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -24.4%
U 11.0 -110 N/A +12.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 11.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01004
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | August 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Landen Roupp Home: Michael King
ERA: 4.12 ERA: 3.38
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 9.03 K/9: 7.83
BB/9: 3.8 BB/9: 3.59
FIP: 3.28 FIP: 3.91
IP: 113.7 IP: 125.3
xERA: 3.48 xERA: 4.58
xwOBA: 0.29 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: SF (Landen Roupp)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF SD Lg Avg
Record 47-64 57-54
R/Game 4.20 4.21 4.50
RA/Game 4.67 4.32 4.50
OPS 0.725 0.696 0.720
wOBA 0.309 0.300 0.310
ERA 4.38 4.14 4.18
FIP 4.08 4.07 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.33 1.30
K/9 7.75 8.33 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.452 0.487 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.53 3.00 4.24
BP FIP 4.21 3.01 4.07
BP WHIP 1.46 1.17
BP K/9 7.90 10.81
BP Quality* 52.1 38.3 46.2
BP IP 347.3 237.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Mason Miller (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9970 (Temp: 1.0129 | Wind: 0.9843)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 3.6 - SD 4.0
Simulated Avg: SF 3.6 - SD 3.9
Win Probability: SF 45.5% - SD 54.5%
Fair Moneyline: SF +120 / SD -120
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 8.0: 37.3%
Under 8.0: 52.9%
SF +1.5: 63.9%
SD -1.5: 36.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 2.1 - SD 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.1 - SD 1.9
F5 Win Prob: SF 53.6% - SD 46.4% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: SF -115 / SD +115
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +129 +120 +1.9%
SD ML -156 -120 -6.5%
SF +1.5 -170 -177 +1.0%
SD -1.5 +140 +177 -5.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -15.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +0.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | August 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Taj Bradley Home: George Kirby
ERA: 3.65 ERA: 3.98
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 10.37 K/9: 8.03
BB/9: 3.65 BB/9: 1.88
FIP: 3.85 FIP: 3.57
IP: 120.7 IP: 120.0
xERA: 3.82 xERA: 3.91
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN SEA Lg Avg
Record 56-56 54-58
R/Game 4.70 3.99 4.50
RA/Game 4.95 3.97 4.50
OPS 0.725 0.687 0.720
wOBA 0.313 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.60 3.74 4.18
FIP 4.19 3.54 4.04
WHIP 1.37 1.18 1.30
K/9 8.44 8.69 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.476 0.502 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.63 3.40 4.24
BP FIP 4.23 3.49 4.07
BP WHIP 1.44 1.27
BP K/9 7.97 8.84
BP Quality* 58.2 40.1 46.2
BP IP 456.3 317.7
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Andrew Morris (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0335 (Temp: 0.9909 | Wind: 1.0430)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 4.0 - SEA 4.2
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.0 - SEA 4.2
Win Probability: MIN 48.2% - SEA 51.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +107 / SEA -107
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 7.0: 53.2%
Under 7.0: 36.6%
MIN +1.5: 65.4%
SEA -1.5: 34.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.3 - SEA 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.3 - SEA 2.0
F5 Win Prob: MIN 55.5% - SEA 44.5% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -125 / SEA +125
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +118 +107 +2.3%
SEA ML -142 -107 -6.9%
MIN +1.5 -188 -189 +0.2%
SEA -1.5 +154 +189 -4.8%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +0.8%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -15.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | August 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jake Bennett Home: Emmet Sheehan
ERA: 2.74 ERA: 4.95
WHIP: 0.97 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 6.3 K/9: 10.1
BB/9: 1.51 BB/9: 2.82
FIP: 3.19 FIP: 4.18
IP: 65.7 IP: 92.7
xERA: 3.07 xERA: 3.77
xwOBA: 0.273 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Jake Bennett)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS LAD Lg Avg
Record 59-51 69-42
R/Game 4.24 5.12 4.50
RA/Game 3.73 3.73 4.50
OPS 0.709 0.774 0.720
wOBA 0.306 0.330 0.310
ERA 3.53 3.60 4.18
FIP 3.60 3.78 4.04
WHIP 1.23 1.14 1.30
K/9 8.64 9.08 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.558 0.641 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.48 4.23 4.24
BP FIP 3.61 3.91 4.07
BP WHIP 1.25 1.27
BP K/9 8.62 9.75
BP Quality* 42.2 44.7 46.2
BP IP 318.3 327.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0098 (Temp: 1.0168 | Wind: 0.9932)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 4.0 - LAD 4.1
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.0 - LAD 4.1
Win Probability: BOS 49.4% - LAD 50.6%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +102 / LAD -102
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.5: 43.6%
Under 8.5: 56.4%
BOS +1.5: 66.5%
LAD -1.5: 33.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.3 - LAD 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.3 - LAD 2.0
F5 Win Prob: BOS 54.7% - LAD 45.3% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -121 / LAD +121
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML +152 +102 +9.7%
LAD ML -185 -102 -14.3%
BOS +1.5 -136 -199 +8.9%
LAD -1.5 +113 +199 -13.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +4.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Boston Red Sox +1.5 (Run Line) [-136]
Model: 66.5% | Market: 57.6% | Edge: 8.9%
Fair ML: -199 | Kelly: 5.25%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01005