2026-08-03
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-03
Games: 8 | Plays: 1
======================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | August 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Aaron Nola
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH PHI Lg Avg
Record 55-58 59-53
R/Game 5.37 4.38 4.49
RA/Game 5.23 4.41 4.49
OPS 0.769 0.705 0.719
wOBA 0.328 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.76 4.22 4.18
FIP 4.61 3.67 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.31 1.30
K/9 7.68 9.95 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.512 0.496 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.87 4.56 4.23
BP FIP 5.12 3.65 4.06
BP WHIP 1.59 1.39
BP K/9 8.36 10.27
BP Quality* 58.5 48.3 46.2
BP IP 372.3 323.3
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0229 (Temp: 1.0101 | Wind: 1.0128)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 6.2 - PHI 5.2
Simulated Avg: WSH 6.2 - PHI 5.2
Win Probability: WSH 58.2% - PHI 41.8%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -140 / PHI +140
Avg Total Runs: 11.4
Over 9.0: 61.9%
Under 9.0: 30.5%
WSH +1.5: 71.2%
PHI -1.5: 28.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 3.7 - PHI 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 3.7 - PHI 2.6
F5 Win Prob: WSH 64.3% - PHI 35.7% (Tie: 13.1%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -180 / PHI +180
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +135 -140 +15.7%
PHI ML -163 +140 -20.2%
WSH +1.5 -156 -248 +10.3%
PHI -1.5 +129 +248 -14.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +9.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -21.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +135 | Edge: 15.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01006
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | August 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael McGreevy Home: Cam Schlittler
ERA: 3.57 ERA: 2.04
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 0.91
K/9: 5.9 K/9: 10.87
BB/9: 2.25 BB/9: 1.71
FIP: 4.22 FIP: 2.4
IP: 116.0 IP: 136.7
xERA: 5.66 xERA: 2.89
xwOBA: 0.361 xwOBA: 0.265
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL NYY Lg Avg
Record 55-57 63-49
R/Game 4.31 4.57 4.49
RA/Game 4.46 3.79 4.49
OPS 0.689 0.721 0.719
wOBA 0.299 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.14 3.28 4.18
FIP 3.91 3.52 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.18 1.30
K/9 7.70 9.02 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.485 0.584 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.26 2.92 4.23
BP FIP 3.94 3.61 4.06
BP WHIP 1.37 1.19
BP K/9 7.93 8.45
BP Quality* 47.7 43.0 46.2
BP IP 399.7 367.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Peter Strzelecki (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9970 (Temp: 1.0019 | Wind: 0.9950)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 3.1 - NYY 5.0
Simulated Avg: STL 3.1 - NYY 5.0
Win Probability: STL 30.9% - NYY 69.1%
Fair Moneyline: STL +224 / NYY -224
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.0: 42.7%
Under 8.0: 47.5%
STL +1.5: 47.9%
NYY -1.5: 52.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 1.4 - NYY 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 1.4 - NYY 2.8
F5 Win Prob: STL 25.7% - NYY 74.3% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +290 / NYY -290
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +177 +224 -5.2%
NYY ML -217 -224 +0.7%
STL +1.5 -118 +109 -6.2%
NYY -1.5 -102 -109 +1.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -9.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -4.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | August 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bubba Chandler Home: Brandon Sproat
ERA: 4.56 ERA: 5.05
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 8.0 K/9: 9.32
BB/9: 4.9 BB/9: 4.47
FIP: 4.2 FIP: 4.9
IP: 104.7 IP: 92.7
xERA: 3.96 xERA: 4.86
xwOBA: 0.308 xwOBA: 0.338
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Bubba Chandler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT MIL Lg Avg
Record 56-57 69-42
R/Game 5.12 5.00 4.49
RA/Game 4.85 3.78 4.49
OPS 0.751 0.736 0.719
wOBA 0.325 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.31 3.48 4.18
FIP 3.75 3.41 4.04
WHIP 1.33 1.16 1.30
K/9 9.31 9.81 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.524 0.625 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.46 3.68 4.23
BP FIP 4.28 3.63 4.06
BP WHIP 1.44 1.32
BP K/9 9.02 9.08
BP Quality* 51.7 45.1 46.2
BP IP 397.3 333.0
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ron Marinaccio (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (30 pitches yesterday)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9883 (Temp: 1.0019 | Wind: 0.9864)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 5.4 - MIL 5.2
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.4 - MIL 5.2
Win Probability: PIT 50.8% - MIL 49.2%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -103 / MIL +103
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 8.0: 64.1%
Under 8.0: 28.1%
PIT +1.5: 65.2%
MIL -1.5: 34.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 3.2 - MIL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 3.2 - MIL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: PIT 56.6% - MIL 43.4% (Tie: 14.0%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -130 / MIL +130
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML +123 -103 +6.0%
MIL ML -149 +103 -10.7%
PIT +1.5 -168 -187 +2.5%
MIL -1.5 +139 +187 -7.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +11.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -24.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01007
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | August 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Matthew Boyd
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD CHC Lg Avg
Record 69-43 63-49
R/Game 5.11 5.09 4.49
RA/Game 3.77 4.29 4.49
OPS 0.771 0.749 0.719
wOBA 0.329 0.325 0.310
ERA 3.64 4.09 4.18
FIP 3.81 4.52 4.04
WHIP 1.14 1.25 1.30
K/9 9.10 7.85 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.636 0.577 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.20 4.46 4.23
BP FIP 3.92 4.70 4.06
BP WHIP 1.27 1.38
BP K/9 9.75 7.93
BP Quality* 49.1 51.7 46.2
BP IP 334.0 415.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kyle Hurt (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Wyatt Mills (53 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Evan Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9915 (Temp: 0.9965 | Wind: 0.9950)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 5.1 - CHC 5.5
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.1 - CHC 5.5
Win Probability: LAD 46.1% - CHC 53.9%
Fair Moneyline: LAD +117 / CHC -117
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 8.0: 63.8%
Under 8.0: 28.3%
LAD -1.5: 32.5%
CHC +1.5: 67.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.6 - CHC 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.6 - CHC 2.9
F5 Win Prob: LAD 44.4% - CHC 55.6% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD +125 / CHC -125
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -126 +117 -9.7%
CHC ML +104 -117 +4.9%
LAD -1.5 +134 +208 -10.3%
CHC +1.5 -162 -208 +5.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +11.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -24.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01008
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | August 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Logan Webb Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF TEX Lg Avg
Record 47-65 55-57
R/Game 4.20 4.15 4.49
RA/Game 4.67 4.47 4.49
OPS 0.725 0.720 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.39 4.35 4.18
FIP 4.08 4.00 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.29 1.30
K/9 7.77 8.64 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.451 0.466 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.49 4.46 4.23
BP FIP 4.20 4.17 4.06
BP WHIP 1.46 1.36
BP K/9 7.90 8.05
BP Quality* 50.4 50.6 46.2
BP IP 350.7 361.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Winn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 96°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (96°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0144 (Temp: 1.0354 | Wind: 0.9797)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 4.6 - TEX 4.4
Simulated Avg: SF 4.6 - TEX 4.4
Win Probability: SF 52.0% - TEX 48.0%
Fair Moneyline: SF -108 / TEX +108
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.0: 51.6%
Under 8.0: 39.4%
SF +1.5: 68.0%
TEX -1.5: 32.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 2.5 - TEX 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.5 - TEX 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SF 54.9% - TEX 45.1% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SF -122 / TEX +122
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +104 -108 +3.0%
TEX ML -125 +108 -7.6%
SF +1.5 -207 -212 +0.6%
TEX -1.5 +169 +212 -5.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -0.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -13.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | August 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shane Bieber Home: Cristian Javier
ERA: 5.74 ERA: 7.17
WHIP: 1.63 WHIP: 1.83
K/9: 6.32 K/9: 8.86
BB/9: 5.17 BB/9: 6.33
FIP: 6.33 FIP: 5.07
IP: 31.3 IP: 21.3
xERA: 7.53 xERA: 5.59
xwOBA: 0.406 xwOBA: 0.359
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Cristian Javier)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR HOU Lg Avg
Record 52-60 58-55
R/Game 3.92 4.67 4.49
RA/Game 4.44 4.91 4.49
OPS 0.682 0.739 0.719
wOBA 0.295 0.315 0.310
ERA 4.07 4.65 4.18
FIP 3.85 4.53 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.38 1.30
K/9 8.99 8.93 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.443 0.477 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.42 4.32 4.23
BP FIP 3.33 4.44 4.06
BP WHIP 1.32 1.32
BP K/9 9.08 9.05
BP Quality* 45.8 56.9 46.2
BP IP 247.7 401.7
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Spencer Miles (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9994 (Temp: 1.0165 | Wind: 0.9832)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 5.0 - HOU 6.4
Simulated Avg: TOR 5.0 - HOU 6.4
Win Probability: TOR 38.6% - HOU 61.4%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +159 / HOU -159
Avg Total Runs: 11.4
Over 9.0: 61.3%
Under 9.0: 30.9%
TOR +1.5: 52.3%
HOU -1.5: 47.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.9 - HOU 4.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.9 - HOU 4.1
F5 Win Prob: TOR 35.2% - HOU 64.8% (Tie: 12.0%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +184 / HOU -184
F5 Avg Total: 7.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML +110 +159 -9.0%
HOU ML -132 -159 +4.5%
TOR +1.5 -181 -110 -12.1%
HOU -1.5 +149 +110 +7.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +9.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -21.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.3% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.0%
Fair ML: -159 | Kelly: 4.70%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01009
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | August 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ian Seymour Home: Michael Lorenzen
ERA: 4.37 ERA: 6.54
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.81
K/9: 10.34 K/9: 6.88
BB/9: 3.22 BB/9: 3.44
FIP: 3.87 FIP: 4.7
IP: 78.3 IP: 104.7
xERA: 3.35 xERA: 5.62
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.36
Pitcher Edge: TB (Ian Seymour)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB COL Lg Avg
Record 65-46 45-67
R/Game 4.36 4.80 4.49
RA/Game 4.08 5.68 4.49
OPS 0.728 0.743 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.319 0.310
ERA 3.71 5.46 4.18
FIP 3.96 4.67 4.04
WHIP 1.15 1.51 1.30
K/9 8.24 7.15 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.530 0.424 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.96 5.03 4.23
BP FIP 4.17 4.30 4.06
BP WHIP 1.21 1.53
BP K/9 8.62 7.54
BP Quality* 47.5 51.6 46.2
BP IP 336.0 379.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Chris Roycroft (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Cook (2 of last 3 days)
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 93°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Hot (93°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0561 (Temp: 1.0315 | Wind: 1.0239)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 6.4 - COL 5.7
Simulated Avg: TB 6.4 - COL 5.7
Win Probability: TB 55.1% - COL 44.9%
Fair Moneyline: TB -123 / COL +123
Avg Total Runs: 12.1
Over 11.5: 51.7%
Under 11.5: 48.3%
TB -1.5: 42.4%
COL +1.5: 57.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 3.8 - COL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 3.8 - COL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: TB 60.2% - COL 39.8% (Tie: 12.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -151 / COL +151
F5 Avg Total: 6.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -174 -123 -8.4%
COL ML +143 +123 +3.7%
TB -1.5 -114 +136 -10.8%
COL +1.5 -105 -136 +6.3%
O 11.5 -110 N/A -0.7%
U 11.5 -110 N/A -4.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | August 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael King Home: Brandon Pfaadt
ERA: 3.38 ERA: 4.0
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 7.83 K/9: 6.13
BB/9: 3.59 BB/9: 2.63
FIP: 3.91 FIP: 4.06
IP: 125.3 IP: 72.0
xERA: 4.58 xERA: 4.01
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD ARI Lg Avg
Record 58-54 59-53
R/Game 4.21 4.54 4.49
RA/Game 4.32 4.52 4.49
OPS 0.696 0.705 0.719
wOBA 0.301 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.14 4.21 4.18
FIP 4.07 4.31 4.04
WHIP 1.32 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.33 6.89 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.489 0.502 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.97 3.90 4.23
BP FIP 2.99 3.68 4.06
BP WHIP 1.16 1.19
BP K/9 10.85 7.73
BP Quality* 39.6 46.7 46.2
BP IP 239.7 357.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Griffin Canning (38 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jeremiah Estrada (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 4.1 - ARI 4.3
Simulated Avg: SD 4.1 - ARI 4.3
Win Probability: SD 48.0% - ARI 52.0%
Fair Moneyline: SD +108 / ARI -108
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 9.0: 37.0%
Under 9.0: 54.1%
SD -1.5: 31.6%
ARI +1.5: 68.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.3 - ARI 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.3 - ARI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SD 46.6% - ARI 53.4% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +115 / ARI -115
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML -102 +108 -2.5%
ARI ML -118 -108 -2.1%
SD -1.5 +159 +217 -7.0%
ARI +1.5 -194 -217 +2.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -15.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +1.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================