2026-08-04
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-04
Games: 15 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | August 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Grayson Rodriguez Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA BAL Lg Avg
Record 43-69 54-58
R/Game 4.20 4.53 4.50
RA/Game 4.86 4.84 4.50
OPS 0.695 0.711 0.720
wOBA 0.302 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.49 4.26 4.18
FIP 4.13 4.06 4.05
WHIP 1.37 1.35 1.30
K/9 9.11 7.97 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.434 0.469 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.56 4.15 4.24
BP FIP 4.26 4.05 4.07
BP WHIP 1.40 1.29
BP K/9 10.11 8.48
BP Quality* 48.5 45.4 46.2
BP IP 290.3 397.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0234 (Temp: 1.0174 | Wind: 1.0059)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 4.3 - BAL 6.6
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.2 - BAL 6.6
Win Probability: LAA 30.4% - BAL 69.6%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +229 / BAL -229
Avg Total Runs: 10.9
Over 9.0: 58.1%
Under 9.0: 34.0%
LAA +1.5: 43.9%
BAL -1.5: 56.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 2.4 - BAL 4.2
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.4 - BAL 4.2
F5 Win Prob: LAA 27.0% - BAL 73.0% (Tie: 11.9%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +270 / BAL -270
F5 Avg Total: 6.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +129 +229 -13.2%
BAL ML -156 -229 +8.6%
LAA +1.5 -163 +128 -18.1%
BAL -1.5 +135 -128 +13.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +5.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -18.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +135 | Edge: 13.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01010
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | August 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sean Manaea Home: Joey Cantillo
ERA: 4.42 ERA: 3.88
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 8.64 K/9: 9.82
BB/9: 2.95 BB/9: 4.28
FIP: 4.01 FIP: 3.83
IP: 91.7 IP: 113.7
xERA: 4.46 xERA: 3.83
xwOBA: 0.325 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM CLE Lg Avg
Record 47-66 57-56
R/Game 4.04 3.95 4.50
RA/Game 4.56 4.09 4.50
OPS 0.683 0.680 0.720
wOBA 0.295 0.295 0.310
ERA 4.10 3.76 4.18
FIP 3.85 3.73 4.05
WHIP 1.29 1.26 1.30
K/9 9.09 9.35 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.446 0.484 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.57 3.85 4.24
BP FIP 3.77 3.66 4.07
BP WHIP 1.23 1.31
BP K/9 9.25 10.02
BP Quality* 41.5 44.0 46.2
BP IP 272.3 399.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9951 (Temp: 1.0079 | Wind: 0.9873)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 3.6 - CLE 3.8
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.6 - CLE 3.8
Win Probability: NYM 47.3% - CLE 52.7%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +111 / CLE -111
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.5: 45.6%
Under 7.5: 54.4%
NYM +1.5: 65.5%
CLE -1.5: 34.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.0 - CLE 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.0 - CLE 2.2
F5 Win Prob: NYM 46.5% - CLE 53.5% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +115 / CLE -115
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +129 +111 +3.6%
CLE ML -156 -111 -8.2%
NYM +1.5 -171 -190 +2.4%
CLE -1.5 +141 +190 -7.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -6.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +2.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | August 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: J.T. Ginn Home: Brady Singer
ERA: 3.46 ERA: 4.35
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 8.23 K/9: 7.61
BB/9: 4.03 BB/9: 3.01
FIP: 4.16 FIP: 4.95
IP: 109.3 IP: 107.7
xERA: 3.96 xERA: 4.97
xwOBA: 0.308 xwOBA: 0.341
Pitcher Edge: ATH (J.T. Ginn)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH CIN Lg Avg
Record 45-67 53-58
R/Game 4.35 4.16 4.50
RA/Game 5.72 4.73 4.50
OPS 0.722 0.708 0.720
wOBA 0.311 0.306 0.310
ERA 5.42 4.41 4.18
FIP 4.84 4.60 4.05
WHIP 1.50 1.41 1.30
K/9 8.62 8.11 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.377 0.442 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.80 4.59 4.24
BP FIP 4.79 4.86 4.07
BP WHIP 1.58 1.45
BP K/9 9.06 8.29
BP Quality* 56.5 53.7 46.2
BP IP 422.0 416.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Zach McCambley (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0171 (Temp: 1.0222 | Wind: 0.9950)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 5.4 - CIN 4.9
Simulated Avg: ATH 5.3 - CIN 4.9
Win Probability: ATH 54.1% - CIN 45.9%
Fair Moneyline: ATH -118 / CIN +118
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 9.0: 53.1%
Under 9.0: 38.6%
ATH +1.5: 68.4%
CIN -1.5: 31.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 3.0 - CIN 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 3.0 - CIN 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ATH 59.5% - CIN 40.5% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH -147 / CIN +147
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +113 -118 +7.1%
CIN ML -136 +118 -11.7%
ATH +1.5 -181 -216 +3.9%
CIN -1.5 +149 +216 -8.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +0.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -13.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | August 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zack Littell Home: Jesús Luzardo
ERA: 4.94 ERA: 3.57
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 5.79 K/9: 10.98
BB/9: 2.9 BB/9: 2.87
FIP: 5.85 FIP: 2.83
IP: 105.7 IP: 128.7
xERA: 6.13 xERA: 2.98
xwOBA: 0.373 xwOBA: 0.269
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH PHI Lg Avg
Record 55-59 60-53
R/Game 5.35 4.39 4.50
RA/Game 5.24 4.40 4.50
OPS 0.768 0.706 0.720
wOBA 0.328 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.77 4.21 4.18
FIP 4.62 3.68 4.05
WHIP 1.40 1.31 1.30
K/9 7.68 9.95 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.510 0.499 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.94 4.52 4.24
BP FIP 5.19 3.62 4.07
BP WHIP 1.59 1.38
BP K/9 8.35 10.31
BP Quality* 60.6 50.9 46.2
BP IP 374.0 326.3
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Eddy Yean (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Kyle Backhus (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0141 (Temp: 1.0135 | Wind: 1.0006)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 4.8 - PHI 6.3
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.8 - PHI 6.3
Win Probability: WSH 37.9% - PHI 62.1%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +164 / PHI -164
Avg Total Runs: 11.1
Over 9.0: 59.8%
Under 9.0: 32.5%
WSH +1.5: 51.6%
PHI -1.5: 48.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.3 - PHI 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.3 - PHI 3.5
F5 Win Prob: WSH 32.2% - PHI 67.8% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH +211 / PHI -211
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +221 +164 +6.7%
PHI ML -276 -164 -11.3%
WSH +1.5 +102 -106 +2.0%
PHI -1.5 -123 +106 -6.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +7.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -19.9%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: -148 | Kelly: 3.87%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01011
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | August 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Hunter Dobbins Home: Ryan Weathers
ERA: 3.74 ERA: 3.99
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 8.55 K/9: 9.86
BB/9: 2.94 BB/9: 2.58
FIP: 3.72 FIP: 3.69
IP: 33.7 IP: 115.0
xERA: 3.72 xERA: 4.37
xwOBA: 0.299 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL NYY Lg Avg
Record 56-57 63-50
R/Game 4.39 4.59 4.50
RA/Game 4.48 3.88 4.50
OPS 0.695 0.724 0.720
wOBA 0.301 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.16 3.37 4.18
FIP 3.95 3.58 4.05
WHIP 1.34 1.19 1.30
K/9 7.71 9.04 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.491 0.577 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.32 3.09 4.24
BP FIP 4.04 3.73 4.07
BP WHIP 1.37 1.20
BP K/9 7.92 8.44
BP Quality* 49.8 44.2 46.2
BP IP 404.3 373.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Angel Chivilli (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0015 (Temp: 1.0031 | Wind: 0.9983)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 4.1 - NYY 4.5
Simulated Avg: STL 4.1 - NYY 4.5
Win Probability: STL 45.6% - NYY 54.4%
Fair Moneyline: STL +119 / NYY -119
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.5: 48.4%
Under 8.5: 51.6%
STL +1.5: 62.3%
NYY -1.5: 37.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 2.3 - NYY 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.3 - NYY 2.3
F5 Win Prob: STL 49.6% - NYY 50.4% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +102 / NYY -102
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +163 +119 +7.6%
NYY ML -199 -119 -12.2%
STL +1.5 -126 -165 +6.6%
NYY -1.5 +104 +165 -11.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -0.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | August 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Davis Martin Home: Patrick Sandoval
ERA: 3.62 ERA: 3.32
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.58
K/9: 8.15 K/9: 9.47
BB/9: 2.69 BB/9: 2.84
FIP: 2.96 FIP: 3.99
IP: 117.0 IP: 19.0
xERA: 4.31 xERA: 4.4
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Davis Martin)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS BOS Lg Avg
Record 59-52 60-51
R/Game 4.78 4.27 4.50
RA/Game 4.29 3.73 4.50
OPS 0.724 0.712 0.720
wOBA 0.310 0.307 0.310
ERA 4.00 3.53 4.18
FIP 3.95 3.60 4.05
WHIP 1.29 1.23 1.30
K/9 8.62 8.61 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.550 0.562 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.09 3.48 4.24
BP FIP 4.25 3.60 4.07
BP WHIP 1.32 1.25
BP K/9 8.46 8.61
BP Quality* 46.6 43.7 46.2
BP IP 325.7 321.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Slaten (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9932 (Temp: 1.0052 | Wind: 0.9880)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 4.3 - BOS 4.2
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.3 - BOS 4.2
Win Probability: CWS 50.4% - BOS 49.5%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -102 / BOS +102
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 9.0: 37.7%
Under 9.0: 53.0%
CWS +1.5: 67.3%
BOS -1.5: 32.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.3 - BOS 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.3 - BOS 2.2
F5 Win Prob: CWS 51.6% - BOS 48.4% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -107 / BOS +107
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +113 -102 +3.5%
BOS ML -136 +102 -8.1%
CWS +1.5 -198 -205 +0.8%
BOS -1.5 +162 +205 -5.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -14.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +0.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | August 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryan Gusto Home: Grant Holmes
ERA: 5.31 ERA: 3.88
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 7.85 K/9: 7.68
BB/9: 3.0 BB/9: 3.97
FIP: 3.69 FIP: 5.01
IP: 39.0 IP: 102.0
xERA: 4.65 xERA: 4.81
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.336
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Ryan Gusto)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA ATL Lg Avg
Record 58-55 67-45
R/Game 4.39 4.90 4.50
RA/Game 4.27 3.94 4.50
OPS 0.732 0.733 0.720
wOBA 0.315 0.315 0.310
ERA 4.00 3.67 4.18
FIP 3.82 4.03 4.05
WHIP 1.24 1.24 1.30
K/9 8.55 8.68 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.512 0.599 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.36 3.52 4.24
BP FIP 3.62 3.61 4.07
BP WHIP 1.26 1.18
BP K/9 9.46 9.00
BP Quality* 43.9 40.2 46.2
BP IP 324.3 348.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9972 (Temp: 1.0108 | Wind: 0.9865)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 4.4 - ATL 5.2
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.4 - ATL 5.2
Win Probability: MIA 43.1% - ATL 56.9%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +132 / ATL -132
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 9.0: 47.8%
Under 9.0: 43.4%
MIA +1.5: 58.5%
ATL -1.5: 41.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 2.7 - ATL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.7 - ATL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: MIA 46.4% - ATL 53.6% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +115 / ATL -115
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +124 +132 -1.6%
ATL ML -149 -132 -2.9%
MIA +1.5 -167 -141 -4.0%
ATL -1.5 +138 +141 -0.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -4.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -9.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | August 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Joe Ryan Home: Randy Dobnak
ERA: 3.52 ERA: 1.04
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 10.1 K/9: 4.85
BB/9: 1.87 BB/9: 3.46
FIP: 3.32 FIP: 4.18
IP: 120.3 IP: 26.0
xERA: 3.46 xERA: 4.58
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Joe Ryan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN KC Lg Avg
Record 56-57 46-67
R/Game 4.71 4.13 4.50
RA/Game 4.96 5.10 4.50
OPS 0.726 0.711 0.720
wOBA 0.314 0.306 0.310
ERA 4.62 4.87 4.18
FIP 4.20 4.60 4.05
WHIP 1.38 1.43 1.30
K/9 8.41 7.63 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.476 0.405 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.64 5.80 4.24
BP FIP 4.22 5.32 4.07
BP WHIP 1.44 1.60
BP K/9 7.98 7.62
BP Quality* 50.7 59.4 46.2
BP IP 457.7 430.0
Bullpen Edge: MIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0191 (Temp: 1.0297 | Wind: 0.9897)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 4.7 - KC 4.0
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.6 - KC 4.0
Win Probability: MIN 56.4% - KC 43.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -129 / KC +129
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 9.0: 38.8%
Under 9.0: 51.9%
MIN -1.5: 40.0%
KC +1.5: 60.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.1 - KC 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.1 - KC 1.9
F5 Win Prob: MIN 53.4% - KC 46.6% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -114 / KC +114
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML -149 -129 -3.4%
KC ML +123 +129 -1.3%
MIN -1.5 +109 +150 -7.8%
KC +1.5 -131 -150 +3.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -13.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -0.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | August 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jared Jones Home: Logan Henderson
ERA: 3.81 ERA: 2.66
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 0.91
K/9: 10.04 K/9: 11.05
BB/9: 2.6 BB/9: 1.84
FIP: 3.48 FIP: 2.74
IP: 52.0 IP: 44.0
xERA: 3.03 xERA: 2.67
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.255
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Logan Henderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT MIL Lg Avg
Record 57-57 69-43
R/Game 5.11 4.98 4.50
RA/Game 4.83 3.79 4.50
OPS 0.749 0.734 0.720
wOBA 0.325 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.29 3.48 4.18
FIP 3.74 3.39 4.05
WHIP 1.32 1.16 1.30
K/9 9.34 9.84 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.525 0.623 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.44 3.62 4.24
BP FIP 4.26 3.60 4.07
BP WHIP 1.44 1.31
BP K/9 9.05 9.13
BP Quality* 51.5 46.2 46.2
BP IP 399.7 338.0
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (38 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Stallings (43 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9980 (Temp: 1.0170 | Wind: 0.9814)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 3.9 - MIL 4.7
Simulated Avg: PIT 3.9 - MIL 4.7
Win Probability: PIT 41.8% - MIL 58.2%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +139 / MIL -139
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 7.5: 57.4%
Under 7.5: 42.6%
PIT +1.5: 58.6%
MIL -1.5: 41.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 1.8 - MIL 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 1.8 - MIL 2.3
F5 Win Prob: PIT 41.1% - MIL 58.9% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +144 / MIL -144
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML +123 +139 -3.0%
MIL ML -149 -139 -1.6%
PIT +1.5 -176 -141 -5.2%
MIL -1.5 +145 +141 +0.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +5.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -9.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
[PITCHER MISMATCH] PITCHER MISMATCH: Tarik Skubal (stats from DET, scheduled for LAD)
[PITCHER MISMATCH] All edge signals suppressed — verify pitcher assignment before acting.
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | August 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tarik Skubal Home: Javier Assad
ERA: 2.79 ERA: 3.75
WHIP: 0.91 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 10.8 K/9: 6.2
BB/9: 1.3 BB/9: 2.33
FIP: 2.48 FIP: 4.74
IP: 96.7 IP: 69.7
xERA: 2.98 xERA: 4.58
xwOBA: 0.269 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Tarik Skubal)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD CHC Lg Avg
Record 69-44 64-49
R/Game 5.11 5.13 4.50
RA/Game 3.82 4.30 4.50
OPS 0.772 0.753 0.720
wOBA 0.329 0.326 0.310
ERA 3.70 4.09 4.18
FIP 3.86 4.53 4.05
WHIP 1.15 1.25 1.30
K/9 9.11 7.82 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.629 0.580 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.24 4.44 4.24
BP FIP 3.91 4.68 4.07
BP WHIP 1.28 1.38
BP K/9 9.81 7.91
BP Quality* 46.3 51.5 46.2
BP IP 337.7 417.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (30 pitches yesterday)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9870 (Temp: 0.9995 | Wind: 0.9875)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 5.6 - CHC 4.3
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.6 - CHC 4.3
Win Probability: LAD 61.6% - CHC 38.4%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -161 / CHC +161
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.0: 49.8%
Under 9.0: 41.5%
LAD -1.5: 46.8%
CHC +1.5: 53.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 3.1 - CHC 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.1 - CHC 1.9
F5 Win Prob: LAD 68.2% - CHC 31.9% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -214 / CHC +214
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -219 -161 -7.0%
CHC ML +178 +161 +2.4%
LAD -1.5 -132 +114 -10.1%
CHC +1.5 +109 -114 +5.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -2.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -10.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | August 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Blade Tidwell Home: MacKenzie Gore
ERA: 3.0 ERA: 4.77
WHIP: 1.08 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 7.5 K/9: 9.98
BB/9: 2.25 BB/9: 3.23
FIP: 3.27 FIP: 3.65
IP: 12.0 IP: 122.7
xERA: 3.61 xERA: 3.83
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: SF (Blade Tidwell)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF TEX Lg Avg
Record 48-65 55-58
R/Game 4.20 4.12 4.50
RA/Game 4.64 4.48 4.50
OPS 0.724 0.718 0.720
wOBA 0.308 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.36 4.34 4.18
FIP 4.08 4.02 4.05
WHIP 1.35 1.29 1.30
K/9 7.79 8.61 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.455 0.462 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.48 4.48 4.24
BP FIP 4.23 4.22 4.07
BP WHIP 1.46 1.36
BP K/9 7.89 8.04
BP Quality* 53.5 55.4 46.2
BP IP 353.7 364.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Keaton Winn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Ben Peoples (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Winn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0142 (Temp: 1.0375 | Wind: 0.9776)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 4.7 - TEX 4.6
Simulated Avg: SF 4.7 - TEX 4.6
Win Probability: SF 50.4% - TEX 49.5%
Fair Moneyline: SF -102 / TEX +102
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.0: 53.6%
Under 8.0: 37.4%
SF +1.5: 66.1%
TEX -1.5: 33.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 2.4 - TEX 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.4 - TEX 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SF 51.9% - TEX 48.1% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SF -108 / TEX +108
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +159 -102 +11.8%
TEX ML -194 +102 -16.4%
SF +1.5 -132 -195 +9.3%
TEX -1.5 +110 +195 -13.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +1.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -15.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] San Francisco Giants +1.5 (Run Line) [-132]
Model: 66.1% | Market: 56.9% | Edge: 9.2%
Fair ML: -195 | Kelly: 5.37%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01012
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | August 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Trey Yesavage Home: Hayden Wesneski
ERA: 3.73 ERA: 4.76
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.59
K/9: 8.93 K/9: 6.35
BB/9: 4.42 BB/9: 3.18
FIP: 4.01 FIP: 2.75
IP: 91.7 IP: 5.7
xERA: 3.33 xERA: 8.38
xwOBA: 0.284 xwOBA: 0.423
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Hayden Wesneski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR HOU Lg Avg
Record 53-60 58-56
R/Game 3.91 4.64 4.50
RA/Game 4.41 4.89 4.50
OPS 0.682 0.737 0.720
wOBA 0.294 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.04 4.63 4.18
FIP 3.84 4.51 4.05
WHIP 1.31 1.37 1.30
K/9 9.00 8.92 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.446 0.476 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.38 4.32 4.24
BP FIP 3.31 4.44 4.07
BP WHIP 1.32 1.32
BP K/9 9.14 9.05
BP Quality* 44.1 52.4 46.2
BP IP 250.0 401.7
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tatsuya Imai (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9965 (Temp: 1.0237 | Wind: 0.9734)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 4.3 - HOU 4.3
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.3 - HOU 4.3
Win Probability: TOR 49.9% - HOU 50.1%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +100 / HOU -100
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.5: 47.6%
Under 8.5: 52.4%
TOR +1.5: 66.3%
HOU -1.5: 33.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.4 - HOU 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.4 - HOU 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TOR 51.5% - HOU 48.5% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -106 / HOU +106
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML +109 +100 +2.1%
HOU ML -131 -100 -6.6%
TOR +1.5 -191 -197 +0.7%
HOU -1.5 +157 +197 -5.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +0.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
[PITCHER MISMATCH] PITCHER MISMATCH: Freddy Peralta (stats from NYM, scheduled for TB)
[PITCHER MISMATCH] All edge signals suppressed — verify pitcher assignment before acting.
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | August 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Freddy Peralta Home: Gabriel Hughes
ERA: 4.99 ERA: 3.33
WHIP: 1.48 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 8.95 K/9: 7.77
BB/9: 3.8 BB/9: 2.59
FIP: 4.32 FIP: 2.24
IP: 113.7 IP: 24.3
xERA: 3.83 xERA: 2.33
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: 0.238
Pitcher Edge: COL (Gabriel Hughes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB COL Lg Avg
Record 66-46 45-68
R/Game 4.44 4.84 4.50
RA/Game 4.12 5.74 4.50
OPS 0.732 0.746 0.720
wOBA 0.314 0.320 0.310
ERA 3.75 5.51 4.18
FIP 3.96 4.70 4.05
WHIP 1.15 1.52 1.30
K/9 8.25 7.12 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.533 0.422 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.99 5.03 4.24
BP FIP 4.20 4.30 4.07
BP WHIP 1.21 1.53
BP K/9 8.57 7.54
BP Quality* 46.3 53.1 46.2
BP IP 338.3 379.3
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tanner Gordon (58 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0370 (Temp: 1.0066 | Wind: 1.0302)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 5.8 - COL 6.0
Simulated Avg: TB 5.8 - COL 6.0
Win Probability: TB 48.4% - COL 51.6%
Fair Moneyline: TB +107 / COL -107
Avg Total Runs: 11.8
Over 11.0: 49.5%
Under 11.0: 42.9%
TB -1.5: 35.7%
COL +1.5: 64.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 3.2 - COL 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 3.2 - COL 3.4
F5 Win Prob: TB 48.2% - COL 51.8% (Tie: 13.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +108 / COL -108
F5 Avg Total: 6.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -171 +107 -14.7%
COL ML +141 -107 +10.1%
TB -1.5 -108 +180 -16.2%
COL +1.5 -111 -180 +11.7%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -2.9%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -9.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | August 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Randy Vásquez Home: Eduardo Rodriguez
ERA: 4.45 ERA: 2.48
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 6.06 K/9: 6.06
BB/9: 2.84 BB/9: 3.1
FIP: 4.62 FIP: 4.08
IP: 95.0 IP: 130.7
xERA: 6.49 xERA: 4.81
xwOBA: 0.382 xwOBA: 0.336
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Eduardo Rodriguez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD ARI Lg Avg
Record 58-55 60-53
R/Game 4.19 4.54 4.50
RA/Game 4.33 4.49 4.50
OPS 0.694 0.706 0.720
wOBA 0.300 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.15 4.18 4.18
FIP 4.08 4.29 4.05
WHIP 1.33 1.29 1.30
K/9 8.32 6.87 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.485 0.505 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.94 3.88 4.24
BP FIP 2.99 3.67 4.07
BP WHIP 1.16 1.19
BP K/9 10.84 7.72
BP Quality* 41.0 43.5 46.2
BP IP 241.7 360.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Jeremiah Estrada (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.9 - ARI 5.2
Simulated Avg: SD 3.9 - ARI 5.2
Win Probability: SD 37.7% - ARI 62.3%
Fair Moneyline: SD +165 / ARI -165
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 9.0: 42.9%
Under 9.0: 48.1%
SD -1.5: 23.5%
ARI +1.5: 76.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.2 - ARI 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.2 - ARI 3.2
F5 Win Prob: SD 34.4% - ARI 65.6% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +190 / ARI -190
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +101 +165 -12.0%
ARI ML -122 -165 +7.3%
SD -1.5 +161 +326 -14.8%
ARI +1.5 -197 -326 +10.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -9.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -4.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | August 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Emerson Hancock
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET SEA Lg Avg
Record 54-58 55-58
R/Game 4.51 4.02 4.50
RA/Game 3.95 3.99 4.50
OPS 0.727 0.689 0.720
wOBA 0.314 0.300 0.310
ERA 3.59 3.75 4.18
FIP 3.67 3.57 4.05
WHIP 1.21 1.19 1.30
K/9 8.50 8.66 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.561 0.503 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.10 3.52 4.24
BP FIP 4.13 3.60 4.07
BP WHIP 1.35 1.28
BP K/9 8.73 8.87
BP Quality* 46.1 42.6 46.2
BP IP 353.7 319.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9961 (Temp: 1.0045 | Wind: 0.9917)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 3.7 - SEA 3.8
Simulated Avg: DET 3.8 - SEA 3.8
Win Probability: DET 48.9% - SEA 51.1%
Fair Moneyline: DET +104 / SEA -104
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.5: 47.9%
Under 7.5: 52.1%
DET +1.5: 66.9%
SEA -1.5: 33.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.1 - SEA 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.1 - SEA 2.1
F5 Win Prob: DET 49.2% - SEA 50.8% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +103 / SEA -103
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +112 +104 +1.7%
SEA ML -135 -104 -6.3%
DET +1.5 -186 -202 +1.9%
SEA -1.5 +153 +202 -6.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -4.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -0.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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