2026-08-05
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-05
Games: 15 | Plays: 1
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[PITCHER MISMATCH] PITCHER MISMATCH: Jameson Taillon (stats from CHC, scheduled for TOR)
[PITCHER MISMATCH] All edge signals suppressed — verify pitcher assignment before acting.
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | August 05, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jameson Taillon Home: Hunter Brown
ERA: 5.92 ERA: 3.42
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 8.05 K/9: 9.4
BB/9: 3.2 BB/9: 5.13
FIP: 6.65 FIP: 4.2
IP: 76.0 IP: 52.7
xERA: 5.86 xERA: 3.72
xwOBA: 0.366 xwOBA: 0.299
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Hunter Brown)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR HOU Lg Avg
Record 53-61 59-56
R/Game 3.89 4.66 4.49
RA/Game 4.43 4.87 4.49
OPS 0.680 0.738 0.720
wOBA 0.294 0.315 0.310
ERA 4.07 4.61 4.18
FIP 3.86 4.49 4.05
WHIP 1.32 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.97 8.89 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.441 0.480 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.58 4.27 4.26
BP FIP 3.40 4.40 4.10
BP WHIP 1.35 1.31
BP K/9 9.11 8.99
BP Quality* 46.9 47.5 46.5
BP IP 254.0 410.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Chad Dallas (74 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brendon Little (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 96°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (96°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0097 (Temp: 1.0355 | Wind: 0.9750)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 3.7 - HOU 6.2
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.7 - HOU 6.2
Win Probability: TOR 28.1% - HOU 71.9%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +255 / HOU -255
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 8.0: 58.9%
Under 8.0: 32.7%
TOR +1.5: 42.6%
HOU -1.5: 57.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.0 - HOU 3.9
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.0 - HOU 3.9
F5 Win Prob: TOR 24.0% - HOU 76.0% (Tie: 12.3%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +317 / HOU -317
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML +170 +255 -8.9%
HOU ML -181 -255 +7.4%
TOR +1.5 -131 +135 -14.1%
HOU -1.5 +109 -135 +9.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +6.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -19.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | August 05, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Eric Lauer Home: Shota Imanaga
ERA: 4.5 ERA: 3.67
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 5.73 K/9: 8.39
BB/9: 2.97 BB/9: 2.04
FIP: 5.77 FIP: 4.36
IP: 88.0 IP: 127.7
xERA: 4.71 xERA: 3.72
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.299
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Shota Imanaga)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD CHC Lg Avg
Record 69-45 65-49
R/Game 5.07 5.13 4.49
RA/Game 3.83 4.27 4.49
OPS 0.769 0.754 0.720
wOBA 0.328 0.326 0.310
ERA 3.71 4.06 4.18
FIP 3.88 4.53 4.05
WHIP 1.15 1.25 1.30
K/9 9.11 7.78 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.625 0.583 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.29 4.32 4.26
BP FIP 3.94 4.52 4.10
BP WHIP 1.29 1.35
BP K/9 9.80 8.44
BP Quality* 48.2 50.1 46.5
BP IP 339.7 472.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Evan Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9891 (Temp: 1.0097 | Wind: 0.9796)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 5.1 - CHC 6.2
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.1 - CHC 6.2
Win Probability: LAD 41.1% - CHC 58.9%
Fair Moneyline: LAD +143 / CHC -143
Avg Total Runs: 11.3
Over 9.5: 60.8%
Under 9.5: 39.2%
LAD +1.5: 54.9%
CHC -1.5: 45.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.7 - CHC 3.6
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.7 - CHC 3.6
F5 Win Prob: LAD 37.9% - CHC 62.1% (Tie: 13.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD +164 / CHC -164
F5 Avg Total: 6.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML +111 +143 -6.3%
CHC ML -118 -143 +4.8%
LAD +1.5 -188 -121 -10.4%
CHC -1.5 +154 +121 +5.8%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +8.4%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -13.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.4%
Fair ML: -155 | Kelly: 4.39%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01013
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] TEX starter (id 674003) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (the model never uses prior-season data).
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | August 05, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Carson Whisenhunt Home: Player 674003
ERA: 6.63 ERA: 0.0
WHIP: 1.74 WHIP: 0.0
K/9: 7.58 K/9: 0.0
BB/9: 5.68 BB/9: 0.0
FIP: 6.05 FIP: 0.0
IP: 19.0 IP: 0.0
xERA: 7.64 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.408 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Player 674003)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF TEX Lg Avg
Record 48-66 56-58
R/Game 4.20 4.13 4.49
RA/Game 4.64 4.47 4.49
OPS 0.723 0.719 0.720
wOBA 0.308 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.37 4.33 4.18
FIP 4.07 4.02 4.05
WHIP 1.36 1.29 1.30
K/9 7.76 8.61 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.455 0.464 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.74 4.51 4.26
BP FIP 4.43 4.24 4.10
BP WHIP 1.49 1.37
BP K/9 6.85 8.07
BP Quality* 57.2 52.7 46.5
BP IP 285.0 367.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Reiver Sanmartin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JT Brubaker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ben Peoples (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 100°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (100°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0093 (Temp: 1.0414 | Wind: 0.9692)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 4.2 - TEX 5.6
Simulated Avg: SF 4.2 - TEX 5.7
Win Probability: SF 36.7% - TEX 63.3%
Fair Moneyline: SF +172 / TEX -172
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 8.5: 58.2%
Under 8.5: 41.8%
SF +1.5: 51.8%
TEX -1.5: 48.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 2.0 - TEX 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.0 - TEX 3.1
F5 Win Prob: SF 33.1% - TEX 66.9% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +202 / TEX -202
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +148 +172 -3.6%
TEX ML -158 -172 +2.0%
SF +1.5 -148 -108 -7.8%
TEX -1.5 +123 +108 +3.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +5.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -10.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | August 05, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Martinez Home: Tomoyuki Sugano
ERA: 2.77 ERA: 4.47
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 5.04 K/9: 5.08
BB/9: 1.46 BB/9: 2.1
FIP: 4.05 FIP: 5.33
IP: 123.3 IP: 102.7
xERA: 4.58 xERA: 7.22
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.399
Pitcher Edge: TB (Nick Martinez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB COL Lg Avg
Record 67-46 45-69
R/Game 4.48 4.86 4.49
RA/Game 4.15 5.77 4.49
OPS 0.733 0.747 0.720
wOBA 0.314 0.320 0.310
ERA 3.77 5.52 4.18
FIP 3.97 4.68 4.05
WHIP 1.15 1.52 1.30
K/9 8.23 7.14 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.535 0.422 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.94 5.27 4.26
BP FIP 4.18 4.48 4.10
BP WHIP 1.20 1.56
BP K/9 8.54 7.55
BP Quality* 50.4 53.5 46.5
BP IP 342.3 295.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Casey Legumina (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Matz (2 of last 3 days)
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0459 (Temp: 1.0139 | Wind: 1.0316)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 6.8 - COL 5.9
Simulated Avg: TB 6.8 - COL 6.0
Win Probability: TB 56.3% - COL 43.7%
Fair Moneyline: TB -129 / COL +129
Avg Total Runs: 12.8
Over 11.5: 55.9%
Under 11.5: 44.1%
TB -1.5: 44.2%
COL +1.5: 55.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 4.1 - COL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 4.1 - COL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: TB 62.3% - COL 37.7% (Tie: 12.3%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -165 / COL +165
F5 Avg Total: 7.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML -154 -129 -4.4%
COL ML +145 +129 +2.9%
TB -1.5 -110 +126 -8.2%
COL +1.5 -110 -126 +3.4%
O 11.5 -110 N/A +3.5%
U 11.5 -110 N/A -8.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | August 05, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Reid Detmers Home: Trevor Rogers
ERA: 4.03 ERA: 4.27
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 10.44 K/9: 7.3
BB/9: 2.74 BB/9: 2.63
FIP: 3.25 FIP: 3.54
IP: 125.0 IP: 109.7
xERA: 3.38 xERA: 3.91
xwOBA: 0.286 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA BAL Lg Avg
Record 43-70 55-58
R/Game 4.17 4.51 4.49
RA/Game 4.84 4.81 4.49
OPS 0.695 0.710 0.720
wOBA 0.302 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.48 4.23 4.18
FIP 4.13 4.03 4.05
WHIP 1.36 1.35 1.30
K/9 9.10 7.99 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.432 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.87 4.14 4.26
BP FIP 4.75 4.03 4.10
BP WHIP 1.48 1.29
BP K/9 9.16 8.50
BP Quality* 52.6 45.2 46.5
BP IP 212.3 400.0
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0084 (Temp: 1.0138 | Wind: 0.9947)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 4.0 - BAL 4.5
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.9 - BAL 4.5
Win Probability: LAA 43.6% - BAL 56.4%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +129 / BAL -129
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.0: 46.9%
Under 8.0: 43.7%
LAA +1.5: 60.7%
BAL -1.5: 39.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.2 - BAL 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.2 - BAL 2.2
F5 Win Prob: LAA 49.7% - BAL 50.3% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +101 / BAL -101
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +111 +129 -3.8%
BAL ML -118 -129 +2.3%
LAA +1.5 -196 -154 -5.5%
BAL -1.5 +161 +154 +1.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | August 05, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Christian Scott Home: Tanner Bibee
ERA: 2.99 ERA: 3.81
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 11.03 K/9: 6.8
BB/9: 3.89 BB/9: 2.58
FIP: 3.26 FIP: 4.42
IP: 69.3 IP: 132.3
xERA: 3.75 xERA: 4.43
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Christian Scott)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM CLE Lg Avg
Record 48-66 57-57
R/Game 4.06 3.93 4.49
RA/Game 4.54 4.11 4.49
OPS 0.684 0.680 0.720
wOBA 0.296 0.296 0.310
ERA 4.09 3.75 4.18
FIP 3.85 3.75 4.05
WHIP 1.29 1.26 1.30
K/9 9.08 9.35 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.450 0.480 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.54 3.84 4.26
BP FIP 3.78 3.67 4.10
BP WHIP 1.22 1.31
BP K/9 9.22 9.99
BP Quality* 41.4 44.0 46.5
BP IP 274.3 401.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Slade Cecconi (43 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0010 (Temp: 1.0143 | Wind: 0.9870)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 3.8 - CLE 3.3
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.8 - CLE 3.3
Win Probability: NYM 56.0% - CLE 44.0%
Fair Moneyline: NYM -128 / CLE +128
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 7.5: 43.1%
Under 7.5: 56.9%
NYM -1.5: 37.2%
CLE +1.5: 62.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.2 - CLE 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.2 - CLE 1.7
F5 Win Prob: NYM 59.2% - CLE 40.8% (Tie: 19.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -145 / CLE +145
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML -102 -128 +5.6%
CLE ML -105 +128 -7.3%
NYM -1.5 +152 +169 -2.5%
CLE +1.5 -185 -169 -2.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -9.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +4.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | August 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jacob Lopez Home: Rhett Lowder
ERA: 5.79 ERA: 5.42
WHIP: 1.67 WHIP: 1.52
K/9: 7.84 K/9: 7.59
BB/9: 5.4 BB/9: 4.01
FIP: 5.39 FIP: 4.32
IP: 70.0 IP: 83.0
xERA: 3.69 xERA: 5.27
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.35
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Rhett Lowder)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH CIN Lg Avg
Record 45-68 54-58
R/Game 4.35 4.17 4.49
RA/Game 5.72 4.72 4.49
OPS 0.720 0.707 0.720
wOBA 0.310 0.306 0.310
ERA 5.42 4.43 4.18
FIP 4.82 4.57 4.05
WHIP 1.50 1.41 1.30
K/9 8.61 8.12 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.377 0.443 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.82 4.59 4.26
BP FIP 4.79 4.87 4.10
BP WHIP 1.58 1.44
BP K/9 9.06 8.31
BP Quality* 59.6 52.1 46.5
BP IP 424.0 394.3
Bullpen Edge: CIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0192 (Temp: 1.0255 | Wind: 0.9938)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 5.4 - CIN 5.6
Simulated Avg: ATH 5.4 - CIN 5.7
Win Probability: ATH 47.4% - CIN 52.6%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +111 / CIN -111
Avg Total Runs: 11.0
Over 9.5: 59.4%
Under 9.5: 40.6%
ATH +1.5: 61.5%
CIN -1.5: 38.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 3.1 - CIN 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 3.1 - CIN 3.0
F5 Win Prob: ATH 51.3% - CIN 48.7% (Tie: 13.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH -105 / CIN +105
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML +137 +111 +5.2%
CIN ML -146 -111 -6.8%
ATH +1.5 -156 -160 +0.5%
CIN -1.5 +129 +160 -5.1%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +7.0%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -11.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | August 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jake Irvin Home: Andrew Painter
ERA: 5.56 ERA: 6.72
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.61
K/9: 9.37 K/9: 7.48
BB/9: 3.81 BB/9: 3.42
FIP: 4.35 FIP: 5.33
IP: 56.7 IP: 71.0
xERA: 5.56 xERA: 5.24
xwOBA: 0.358 xwOBA: 0.349
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Jake Irvin)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH PHI Lg Avg
Record 55-60 61-53
R/Game 5.30 4.39 4.49
RA/Game 5.23 4.36 4.49
OPS 0.765 0.706 0.720
wOBA 0.327 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.78 4.17 4.18
FIP 4.61 3.67 4.05
WHIP 1.40 1.30 1.30
K/9 7.65 9.94 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.504 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.93 4.48 4.26
BP FIP 5.17 3.60 4.10
BP WHIP 1.59 1.37
BP K/9 8.38 10.39
BP Quality* 60.5 47.6 46.5
BP IP 375.0 371.7
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Zack Littell (93 pitches yesterday)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kyle Backhus (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 24%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0113 (Temp: 1.0081 | Wind: 1.0031)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 6.6 - PHI 5.8
Simulated Avg: WSH 6.6 - PHI 5.8
Win Probability: WSH 55.5% - PHI 44.5%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -125 / PHI +125
Avg Total Runs: 12.5
Over 9.5: 68.4%
Under 9.5: 31.6%
WSH +1.5: 68.1%
PHI -1.5: 31.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 4.1 - PHI 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 4.1 - PHI 3.1
F5 Win Prob: WSH 62.1% - PHI 37.9% (Tie: 12.0%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -164 / PHI +164
F5 Avg Total: 7.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +174 -125 +19.0%
PHI ML -186 +125 -20.6%
WSH +1.5 -127 -213 +12.1%
PHI -1.5 +105 +213 -16.9%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +16.0%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -20.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 9.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 16.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01014
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | August 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andre Pallante Home: Will Warren
ERA: 3.72 ERA: 4.14
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 6.52 K/9: 9.03
BB/9: 2.58 BB/9: 2.98
FIP: 3.61 FIP: 3.88
IP: 118.7 IP: 108.7
xERA: 3.72 xERA: 4.46
xwOBA: 0.299 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL NYY Lg Avg
Record 56-58 64-50
R/Game 4.35 4.57 4.49
RA/Game 4.46 3.84 4.49
OPS 0.694 0.722 0.720
wOBA 0.301 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.15 3.34 4.18
FIP 3.97 3.56 4.05
WHIP 1.34 1.19 1.30
K/9 7.70 9.05 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.489 0.579 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.28 3.06 4.26
BP FIP 4.04 3.72 4.10
BP WHIP 1.37 1.20
BP K/9 7.92 8.47
BP Quality* 49.7 44.1 46.5
BP IP 430.7 376.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0055 (Temp: 1.0055 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.2 - NYY 4.5
Simulated Avg: STL 4.2 - NYY 4.5
Win Probability: STL 46.6% - NYY 53.4%
Fair Moneyline: STL +115 / NYY -115
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.5: 48.8%
Under 8.5: 51.2%
STL +1.5: 63.2%
NYY -1.5: 36.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.4 - NYY 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.4 - NYY 2.3
F5 Win Prob: STL 51.4% - NYY 48.6% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -106 / NYY +106
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +143 +115 +5.4%
NYY ML -152 -115 -6.9%
STL +1.5 -156 -172 +2.3%
NYY -1.5 +129 +172 -6.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -3.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -1.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | August 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sean Burke Home: Sonny Gray
ERA: 3.04 ERA: 2.93
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 10.13 K/9: 7.76
BB/9: 2.68 BB/9: 2.38
FIP: 3.1 FIP: 3.54
IP: 124.3 IP: 113.7
xERA: 3.46 xERA: 3.83
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Sean Burke)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS BOS Lg Avg
Record 59-53 61-51
R/Game 4.76 4.36 4.49
RA/Game 4.38 3.71 4.49
OPS 0.722 0.717 0.720
wOBA 0.310 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.08 3.52 4.18
FIP 4.00 3.59 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.23 1.30
K/9 8.57 8.61 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.538 0.573 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.10 3.40 4.26
BP FIP 4.22 3.57 4.10
BP WHIP 1.32 1.26
BP K/9 8.11 8.96
BP Quality* 48.0 41.8 46.5
BP IP 287.3 354.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Erick Fedde (50 pitches yesterday)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9948 (Temp: 1.0126 | Wind: 0.9824)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 4.2 - BOS 4.1
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.2 - BOS 4.1
Win Probability: CWS 51.0% - BOS 49.0%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -104 / BOS +104
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.5: 44.8%
Under 8.5: 55.2%
CWS +1.5: 68.0%
BOS -1.5: 31.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.3 - BOS 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.3 - BOS 2.0
F5 Win Prob: CWS 55.7% - BOS 44.3% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -126 / BOS +126
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +119 -104 +5.4%
BOS ML -127 +104 -7.0%
CWS +1.5 -186 -213 +3.0%
BOS -1.5 +153 +213 -7.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +2.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | August 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Eury Pérez Home: Bryce Elder
ERA: 3.44 ERA: 3.84
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 9.63 K/9: 7.6
BB/9: 3.44 BB/9: 3.01
FIP: 3.72 FIP: 4.48
IP: 104.7 IP: 119.7
xERA: 3.83 xERA: 3.99
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Eury Pérez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA ATL Lg Avg
Record 58-56 68-45
R/Game 4.37 4.89 4.49
RA/Game 4.27 3.92 4.49
OPS 0.731 0.733 0.720
wOBA 0.315 0.315 0.310
ERA 3.99 3.66 4.18
FIP 3.83 4.01 4.05
WHIP 1.24 1.24 1.30
K/9 8.53 8.67 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.510 0.600 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 3.54 4.26
BP FIP 3.73 3.61 4.10
BP WHIP 1.31 1.18
BP K/9 9.14 8.97
BP Quality* 45.2 44.8 46.5
BP IP 362.3 351.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 18%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0080 (Temp: 1.0126 | Wind: 0.9955)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 4.3 - ATL 4.7
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.3 - ATL 4.7
Win Probability: MIA 46.0% - ATL 54.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +117 / ATL -117
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.5: 51.6%
Under 8.5: 48.4%
MIA -1.5: 30.6%
ATL +1.5: 69.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.5 - ATL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.4 - ATL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIA 49.1% - ATL 50.9% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +104 / ATL -104
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +110 +117 -1.6%
ATL ML -117 -117 +0.1%
MIA -1.5 +168 +227 -6.7%
ATL +1.5 -205 -227 +2.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -0.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
[PITCHER MISMATCH] PITCHER MISMATCH: Dean Kremer (stats from BAL, scheduled for MIN)
[PITCHER MISMATCH] All edge signals suppressed — verify pitcher assignment before acting.
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | August 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Dean Kremer Home: Noah Cameron
ERA: 6.5 ERA: 4.59
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 9.5 K/9: 8.33
BB/9: 2.75 BB/9: 3.03
FIP: 6.24 FIP: 3.83
IP: 36.0 IP: 115.7
xERA: 4.94 xERA: 4.65
xwOBA: 0.34 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: KC (Noah Cameron)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN KC Lg Avg
Record 56-58 47-67
R/Game 4.68 4.17 4.49
RA/Game 4.99 5.07 4.49
OPS 0.726 0.711 0.720
wOBA 0.313 0.306 0.310
ERA 4.65 4.85 4.18
FIP 4.19 4.60 4.05
WHIP 1.39 1.43 1.30
K/9 8.39 7.60 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.471 0.411 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.67 5.76 4.26
BP FIP 4.21 5.32 4.10
BP WHIP 1.44 1.60
BP K/9 7.98 7.61
BP Quality* 49.3 62.3 46.5
BP IP 460.3 434.0
Bullpen Edge: MIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nate Pearson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0149 (Temp: 1.0201 | Wind: 0.9949)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 5.3 - KC 5.4
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.3 - KC 5.4
Win Probability: MIN 49.5% - KC 50.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +102 / KC -102
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 8.5: 64.6%
Under 8.5: 35.4%
MIN -1.5: 35.4%
KC +1.5: 64.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.7 - KC 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.7 - KC 3.3
F5 Win Prob: MIN 41.5% - KC 58.5% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +141 / KC -141
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +109 +102 +1.6%
KC ML -116 -102 -3.2%
MIN -1.5 +163 +182 -2.6%
KC +1.5 -199 -182 -2.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +12.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -17.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | August 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Paul Skenes Home: Kyle Harrison
ERA: 3.9 ERA: 3.01
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 11.26 K/9: 10.86
BB/9: 2.31 BB/9: 2.15
FIP: 2.72 FIP: 2.96
IP: 124.7 IP: 83.7
xERA: 2.93 xERA: 3.17
xwOBA: 0.267 xwOBA: 0.277
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT MIL Lg Avg
Record 57-58 70-43
R/Game 5.08 4.97 4.49
RA/Game 4.83 3.77 4.49
OPS 0.748 0.735 0.720
wOBA 0.324 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.30 3.47 4.18
FIP 3.75 3.40 4.05
WHIP 1.33 1.16 1.30
K/9 9.34 9.85 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.523 0.624 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.39 3.59 4.26
BP FIP 4.14 3.55 4.10
BP WHIP 1.42 1.31
BP K/9 9.23 8.97
BP Quality* 52.1 41.4 46.5
BP IP 431.0 393.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Wilber Dotel (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 43%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9856 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 0.9856)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 3.9 - MIL 4.4
Simulated Avg: PIT 3.9 - MIL 4.4
Win Probability: PIT 44.0% - MIL 56.0%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +127 / MIL -127
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 7.0: 54.6%
Under 7.0: 35.7%
PIT +1.5: 61.2%
MIL -1.5: 38.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 2.0 - MIL 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.0 - MIL 2.0
F5 Win Prob: PIT 49.4% - MIL 50.6% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +102 / MIL -102
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML +116 +127 -2.3%
MIL ML -123 -127 +0.8%
PIT +1.5 -198 -158 -5.2%
MIL -1.5 +162 +158 +0.6%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +2.2%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -16.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
[PITCHER MISMATCH] PITCHER MISMATCH: Casey Mize (stats from DET, scheduled for SD)
[PITCHER MISMATCH] All edge signals suppressed — verify pitcher assignment before acting.
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | August 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Casey Mize Home: Mitch Bratt
ERA: 2.7 ERA: 5.23
WHIP: 0.99 WHIP: 1.84
K/9: 8.83 K/9: 5.23
BB/9: 1.97 BB/9: 6.53
FIP: 2.55 FIP: 6.63
IP: 86.7 IP: 20.7
xERA: 3.07 xERA: 4.9
xwOBA: 0.273 xwOBA: 0.339
Pitcher Edge: SD (Casey Mize)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD ARI Lg Avg
Record 59-55 60-54
R/Game 4.23 4.54 4.49
RA/Game 4.32 4.53 4.49
OPS 0.696 0.706 0.720
wOBA 0.301 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.15 4.20 4.18
FIP 4.10 4.28 4.05
WHIP 1.32 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.28 6.86 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.490 0.501 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.94 3.72 4.26
BP FIP 2.99 3.63 4.10
BP WHIP 1.16 1.18
BP K/9 10.84 7.72
BP Quality* 39.5 42.8 46.5
BP IP 241.7 362.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Griffin Canning (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeremiah Estrada (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ryan Thompson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 16 mph (gusts 27 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), strong wind in (16 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9963 (Temp: 1.0378 | Wind: 0.9601)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 4.3 - ARI 3.4
Simulated Avg: SD 4.3 - ARI 3.4
Win Probability: SD 59.1% - ARI 40.9%
Fair Moneyline: SD -145 / ARI +145
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 9.0: 30.8%
Under 9.0: 60.4%
SD -1.5: 41.4%
ARI +1.5: 58.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.6 - ARI 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.6 - ARI 1.7
F5 Win Prob: SD 65.7% - ARI 34.3% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SD -191 / ARI +191
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML -118 -145 +5.0%
ARI ML +111 +145 -6.5%
SD -1.5 +130 +142 -2.1%
ARI +1.5 -157 -142 -2.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -21.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +8.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | August 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Drew Anderson Home: Bryan Woo
ERA: 4.24 ERA: 4.56
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 11.03 K/9: 9.12
BB/9: 3.39 BB/9: 1.94
FIP: 3.62 FIP: 3.12
IP: 63.7 IP: 120.3
xERA: 3.38 xERA: 3.54
xwOBA: 0.286 xwOBA: 0.292
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryan Woo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET SEA Lg Avg
Record 55-58 55-59
R/Game 4.54 3.98 4.49
RA/Game 3.91 4.03 4.49
OPS 0.731 0.687 0.720
wOBA 0.315 0.299 0.310
ERA 3.56 3.78 4.18
FIP 3.66 3.60 4.05
WHIP 1.21 1.19 1.30
K/9 8.49 8.68 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.568 0.495 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.24 3.64 4.26
BP FIP 4.17 3.76 4.10
BP WHIP 1.37 1.30
BP K/9 8.76 9.15
BP Quality* 48.4 42.3 46.5
BP IP 356.3 361.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Yilber Díaz (30 pitches yesterday)
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0366 (Temp: 1.0094 | Wind: 1.0269)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 3.8 - SEA 3.8
Simulated Avg: DET 3.8 - SEA 3.8
Win Probability: DET 50.8% - SEA 49.2%
Fair Moneyline: DET -103 / SEA +103
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.5: 48.0%
Under 7.5: 52.0%
DET +1.5: 68.4%
SEA -1.5: 31.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.1 - SEA 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.1 - SEA 1.9
F5 Win Prob: DET 53.4% - SEA 46.6% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -114 / SEA +114
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +131 -103 +7.5%
SEA ML -140 +103 -9.1%
DET +1.5 -179 -217 +4.3%
SEA -1.5 +147 +217 -8.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -4.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -0.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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