2026-08-06
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-06
Games: 11 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | August 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryan Johnson Home: Brandon Young
ERA: 7.63 ERA: 3.31
WHIP: 1.59 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 7.24 K/9: 7.4
BB/9: 3.91 BB/9: 3.14
FIP: 6.19 FIP: 3.88
IP: 46.0 IP: 103.3
xERA: 5.3 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.351 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Brandon Young)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA BAL Lg Avg
Record 43-71 56-58
R/Game 4.15 4.52 4.49
RA/Game 4.84 4.78 4.49
OPS 0.693 0.711 0.719
wOBA 0.301 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.49 4.21 4.17
FIP 4.14 4.02 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.34 1.30
K/9 9.13 8.02 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.430 0.474 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.87 4.44 4.24
BP FIP 4.73 4.02 4.10
BP WHIP 1.47 1.34
BP K/9 9.28 8.62
BP Quality* 52.4 51.1 46.4
BP IP 216.3 377.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jorge Soler
Jorge Soler Designated Hitter OPS: 0.664 (316 AB)
Run Adjustment: 99.0% of full strength
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0041 (Temp: 1.0228 | Wind: 0.9817)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 4.1 - BAL 6.3
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.1 - BAL 6.4
Win Probability: LAA 30.9% - BAL 69.1%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +223 / BAL -223
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 9.5: 55.1%
Under 9.5: 44.9%
LAA +1.5: 44.9%
BAL -1.5: 55.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 2.2 - BAL 3.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.1 - BAL 3.9
F5 Win Prob: LAA 26.8% - BAL 73.2% (Tie: 12.5%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +273 / BAL -273
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +170 +223 -6.1%
BAL ML -183 -223 +4.4%
LAA +1.5 -128 +123 -11.3%
BAL -1.5 +106 -123 +6.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +2.8%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -7.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | August 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Mason Barnett Home: Andrew Abbott
ERA: 4.85 ERA: 3.91
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 8.8 K/9: 7.01
BB/9: 4.25 BB/9: 4.35
FIP: 4.75 FIP: 4.8
IP: 29.7 IP: 122.0
xERA: 3.96 xERA: 4.7
xwOBA: 0.308 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH CIN Lg Avg
Record 45-69 55-58
R/Game 4.32 4.16 4.49
RA/Game 5.69 4.70 4.49
OPS 0.718 0.706 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.305 0.310
ERA 5.40 4.41 4.17
FIP 4.80 4.57 4.04
WHIP 1.49 1.40 1.30
K/9 8.64 8.11 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.377 0.444 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.80 4.55 4.24
BP FIP 4.77 4.84 4.10
BP WHIP 1.58 1.43
BP K/9 9.04 8.34
BP Quality* 56.4 53.3 46.4
BP IP 427.0 397.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Donovan Walton, Zack Gelof, Carlos Cortes, Jacob Wilson
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer Third Base OPS: 1.018 (60 AB)
Nick Kurtz First Base OPS: 0.879 (352 AB)
Shea Langeliers Catcher OPS: 0.829 (376 AB)
Donovan Walton Second Base OPS: 0.806 (121 AB)
Zack Gelof Third Base OPS: 0.803 (227 AB)
Carlos Cortes Outfielder OPS: 0.747 (231 AB)
Jacob Wilson Shortstop OPS: 0.694 (296 AB)
Run Adjustment: 80.0% of full strength
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Spencer Steer, Blake Dunn, Jose Trevino
Spencer Steer First Base OPS: 0.740 (340 AB)
Blake Dunn Outfielder OPS: 0.722 (142 AB)
Jose Trevino Catcher OPS: 0.686 (87 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0031 (Temp: 1.0203 | Wind: 0.9832)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 4.0 - CIN 5.3
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.1 - CIN 5.3
Win Probability: ATH 38.1% - CIN 61.9%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +162 / CIN -162
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 9.5: 46.1%
Under 9.5: 53.9%
ATH +1.5: 53.9%
CIN -1.5: 46.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 2.2 - CIN 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.2 - CIN 3.0
F5 Win Prob: ATH 38.5% - CIN 61.6% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +160 / CIN -160
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +150 +162 -1.9%
CIN ML -161 -162 +0.2%
ATH +1.5 -142 -117 -4.7%
CIN -1.5 +118 +117 +0.2%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -6.3%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +1.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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[PITCHER MISMATCH] PITCHER MISMATCH: Foster Griffin (stats from WSH, scheduled for CLE)
[PITCHER MISMATCH] All edge signals suppressed — verify pitcher assignment before acting.
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | August 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nolan McLean Home: Foster Griffin
ERA: 3.29 ERA: 3.06
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 10.6 K/9: 8.07
BB/9: 3.22 BB/9: 2.09
FIP: 3.16 FIP: 3.91
IP: 125.7 IP: 129.3
xERA: 3.55 xERA: 4.07
xwOBA: 0.293 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM CLE Lg Avg
Record 49-66 57-58
R/Game 4.08 3.94 4.49
RA/Game 4.54 4.12 4.49
OPS 0.686 0.681 0.719
wOBA 0.296 0.296 0.310
ERA 4.07 3.74 4.17
FIP 3.83 3.76 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.26 1.30
K/9 9.11 9.40 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.451 0.479 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.78 3.76 4.24
BP FIP 3.95 3.64 4.10
BP WHIP 1.26 1.31
BP K/9 9.29 9.94
BP Quality* 46.3 42.1 46.4
BP IP 240.3 385.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Daniel Duarte (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chayce McDermott (39 pitches yesterday)
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Juan Soto, Jared Young, A.J. Ewing, MJ Melendez, Mark Vientos
Juan Soto Outfielder OPS: 0.947 (293 AB)
Jared Young First Base OPS: 0.761 (184 AB)
A.J. Ewing Outfielder OPS: 0.731 (269 AB)
MJ Melendez Designated Hitter OPS: 0.665 (120 AB)
Mark Vientos First Base OPS: 0.644 (237 AB)
Run Adjustment: 88.7% of full strength
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Austin Hedges, Rhys Hoskins, Kyle Manzardo, Jo Adell
Austin Hedges Catcher OPS: 0.730 (151 AB)
Rhys Hoskins First Base OPS: 0.687 (243 AB)
Kyle Manzardo First Base OPS: 0.684 (312 AB)
Jo Adell Outfielder OPS: 0.683 (432 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0289 (Temp: 1.0204 | Wind: 1.0083)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 3.2 - CLE 3.3
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.2 - CLE 3.3
Win Probability: NYM 48.1% - CLE 51.9%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +108 / CLE -108
Avg Total Runs: 6.5
Over 7.5: 36.3%
Under 7.5: 63.7%
NYM -1.5: 29.0%
CLE +1.5: 71.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 1.8 - CLE 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 1.8 - CLE 1.7
F5 Win Prob: NYM 52.9% - CLE 47.1% (Tie: 21.3%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -112 / CLE +112
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +108 +108 -0.0%
CLE ML -116 -108 -1.8%
NYM -1.5 +174 +245 -7.5%
CLE +1.5 -213 -245 +3.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -16.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +11.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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[PITCHER MISMATCH] PITCHER MISMATCH: Dustin May (stats from STL, scheduled for MIL)
[PITCHER MISMATCH] All edge signals suppressed — verify pitcher assignment before acting.
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | August 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Braxton Ashcraft Home: Dustin May
ERA: 3.96 ERA: 4.38
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 9.9 K/9: 8.75
BB/9: 2.19 BB/9: 2.89
FIP: 3.37 FIP: 2.95
IP: 127.3 IP: 109.0
xERA: 3.38 xERA: 3.9
xwOBA: 0.286 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Dustin May)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT MIL Lg Avg
Record 57-59 71-43
R/Game 5.05 4.96 4.49
RA/Game 4.82 3.75 4.49
OPS 0.746 0.733 0.719
wOBA 0.323 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.30 3.45 4.17
FIP 3.75 3.39 4.04
WHIP 1.33 1.16 1.30
K/9 9.35 9.89 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.522 0.625 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.38 3.61 4.24
BP FIP 4.14 3.57 4.10
BP WHIP 1.42 1.30
BP K/9 9.25 8.95
BP Quality* 49.1 47.5 46.4
BP IP 432.0 396.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Lake Bachar (37 pitches yesterday)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9983 (Temp: 1.0054 | Wind: 0.9929)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 4.6 - MIL 4.7
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.6 - MIL 4.6
Win Probability: PIT 49.3% - MIL 50.7%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +103 / MIL -103
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 7.5: 62.4%
Under 7.5: 37.6%
PIT +1.5: 64.8%
MIL -1.5: 35.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 2.4 - MIL 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.4 - MIL 2.3
F5 Win Prob: PIT 51.5% - MIL 48.5% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -106 / MIL +106
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML +116 +103 +3.0%
MIL ML -124 -103 -4.6%
PIT +1.5 -198 -184 -1.7%
MIL -1.5 +162 +184 -2.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +10.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -14.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | August 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dylan Cease Home: David Peterson
ERA: 2.41 ERA: 5.52
WHIP: 1.08 WHIP: 1.48
K/9: 13.12 K/9: 7.57
BB/9: 3.85 BB/9: 3.56
FIP: 2.23 FIP: 4.02
IP: 119.3 IP: 101.0
xERA: 2.77 xERA: 5.02
xwOBA: 0.26 xwOBA: 0.343
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Dylan Cease)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR CHC Lg Avg
Record 54-61 66-49
R/Game 3.90 5.15 4.49
RA/Game 4.43 4.29 4.49
OPS 0.679 0.756 0.719
wOBA 0.293 0.327 0.310
ERA 4.06 4.08 4.17
FIP 3.85 4.53 4.04
WHIP 1.32 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.96 7.81 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.443 0.583 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.44 4.38 4.24
BP FIP 3.66 4.54 4.10
BP WHIP 1.33 1.35
BP K/9 7.88 8.46
BP Quality* 49.3 54.9 46.4
BP IP 209.0 476.7
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Spencer Miles (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brendon Little (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Tyler Ferguson (B2B, 29 pitches)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9886 (Temp: 1.0058 | Wind: 0.9828)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 4.5 - CHC 4.2
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.5 - CHC 4.2
Win Probability: TOR 53.1% - CHC 46.9%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -113 / CHC +113
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 7.5: 59.1%
Under 7.5: 40.9%
TOR -1.5: 37.0%
CHC +1.5: 63.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.5 - CHC 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.5 - CHC 1.8
F5 Win Prob: TOR 63.4% - CHC 36.5% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -174 / CHC +174
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML -112 -113 +0.3%
CHC ML +104 +113 -2.2%
TOR -1.5 +143 +170 -4.1%
CHC +1.5 -174 -170 -0.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +6.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -11.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | August 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Framber Valdez Home: Bryce Miller
ERA: 4.41 ERA: 2.8
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 0.92
K/9: 7.33 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 3.22 BB/9: 1.58
FIP: 3.84 FIP: 3.74
IP: 120.3 IP: 74.0
xERA: 4.3 xERA: 2.67
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.255
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET SEA Lg Avg
Record 55-59 56-59
R/Game 4.52 3.98 4.49
RA/Game 3.91 4.01 4.49
OPS 0.729 0.688 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.300 0.310
ERA 3.57 3.77 4.17
FIP 3.68 3.59 4.04
WHIP 1.21 1.19 1.30
K/9 8.45 8.69 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.565 0.497 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.33 3.49 4.24
BP FIP 4.36 3.85 4.10
BP WHIP 1.39 1.29
BP K/9 8.27 9.05
BP Quality* 48.4 42.2 46.4
BP IP 295.0 335.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0255 (Temp: 1.0083 | Wind: 1.0172)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 3.5 - SEA 4.0
Simulated Avg: DET 3.5 - SEA 4.0
Win Probability: DET 44.4% - SEA 55.6%
Fair Moneyline: DET +125 / SEA -125
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 8.0: 36.7%
Under 8.0: 53.3%
DET +1.5: 62.9%
SEA -1.5: 37.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 1.8 - SEA 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 1.8 - SEA 2.1
F5 Win Prob: DET 42.7% - SEA 57.3% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +134 / SEA -134
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +116 +125 -1.9%
SEA ML -124 -125 +0.2%
DET +1.5 -199 -170 -3.6%
SEA -1.5 +163 +170 -1.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -15.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +1.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | August 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Miles Mikolas Home: Cristopher Sánchez
ERA: 5.67 ERA: 2.61
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 4.58 K/9: 10.45
BB/9: 1.83 BB/9: 2.05
FIP: 5.82 FIP: 2.54
IP: 108.0 IP: 144.7
xERA: 5.37 xERA: 3.33
xwOBA: 0.353 xwOBA: 0.284
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH PHI Lg Avg
Record 56-60 61-54
R/Game 5.34 4.39 4.49
RA/Game 5.22 4.41 4.49
OPS 0.766 0.704 0.719
wOBA 0.327 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.75 4.20 4.17
FIP 4.61 3.67 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.31 1.30
K/9 7.61 9.93 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.510 0.498 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.75 4.32 4.24
BP FIP 5.04 3.56 4.10
BP WHIP 1.56 1.36
BP K/9 8.47 10.22
BP Quality* 60.5 48.4 46.4
BP IP 405.7 419.0
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tom Cosgrove (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9965 (Temp: 1.0181 | Wind: 0.9788)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 4.5 - PHI 6.1
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.5 - PHI 6.1
Win Probability: WSH 35.9% - PHI 64.1%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +179 / PHI -179
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 9.0: 55.8%
Under 9.0: 35.9%
WSH +1.5: 50.1%
PHI -1.5: 49.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 2.0 - PHI 3.4
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.1 - PHI 3.4
F5 Win Prob: WSH 30.3% - PHI 69.7% (Tie: 14.0%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH +231 / PHI -231
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +288 +179 +10.1%
PHI ML -314 -179 -11.8%
WSH +1.5 +121 -100 +4.8%
PHI -1.5 -146 +100 -9.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +3.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -16.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +288 | Edge: 10.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01015
[PITCHER MISMATCH] PITCHER MISMATCH: Luis Castillo (stats from SEA, scheduled for CWS)
[PITCHER MISMATCH] All edge signals suppressed — verify pitcher assignment before acting.
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | August 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Luis Castillo Home: Ranger Suarez
ERA: 5.06 ERA: 3.15
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 7.77 K/9: 9.45
BB/9: 2.89 BB/9: 2.52
FIP: 4.42 FIP: 2.49
IP: 99.7 IP: 100.0
xERA: 4.83 xERA: 3.38
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.286
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS BOS Lg Avg
Record 59-54 62-51
R/Game 4.72 4.35 4.49
RA/Game 4.37 3.68 4.49
OPS 0.719 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.08 3.49 4.17
FIP 4.00 3.57 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.22 1.30
K/9 8.57 8.66 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.535 0.576 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.10 3.38 4.24
BP FIP 4.20 3.55 4.10
BP WHIP 1.32 1.25
BP K/9 8.13 8.98
BP Quality* 46.5 40.1 46.4
BP IP 290.0 356.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0008 (Temp: 1.0196 | Wind: 0.9815)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 3.8 - BOS 5.0
Simulated Avg: CWS 3.8 - BOS 5.0
Win Probability: CWS 37.4% - BOS 62.6%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +167 / BOS -167
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 9.0: 40.6%
Under 9.0: 50.3%
CWS +1.5: 53.9%
BOS -1.5: 46.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 1.9 - BOS 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 1.9 - BOS 2.9
F5 Win Prob: CWS 34.0% - BOS 66.0% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +194 / BOS -194
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +167 +167 -0.1%
BOS ML -180 -167 -1.7%
CWS +1.5 -131 -117 -2.8%
BOS -1.5 +109 +117 -1.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -11.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -2.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | August 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Janson Junk Home: Martín Pérez
ERA: 4.58 ERA: 3.24
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 6.98 K/9: 6.93
BB/9: 2.52 BB/9: 3.61
FIP: 4.21 FIP: 4.23
IP: 78.7 IP: 97.3
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA ATL Lg Avg
Record 58-57 69-45
R/Game 4.34 4.89 4.49
RA/Game 4.27 3.89 4.49
OPS 0.728 0.732 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.00 3.63 4.17
FIP 3.80 4.00 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.24 1.30
K/9 8.57 8.64 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.602 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.43 3.52 4.24
BP FIP 3.71 3.59 4.10
BP WHIP 1.31 1.18
BP K/9 9.14 9.00
BP Quality* 45.0 41.6 46.4
BP IP 365.3 353.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 16%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9978 (Temp: 1.0086 | Wind: 0.9894)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 4.1 - ATL 5.1
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.1 - ATL 5.0
Win Probability: MIA 40.5% - ATL 59.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +147 / ATL -147
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 9.0: 43.7%
Under 9.0: 47.5%
MIA +1.5: 56.4%
ATL -1.5: 43.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.4 - ATL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.4 - ATL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: MIA 42.4% - ATL 57.6% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +136 / ATL -136
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +131 +147 -2.8%
ATL ML -140 -147 +1.2%
MIA +1.5 -157 -129 -4.7%
ATL -1.5 +130 +129 +0.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -8.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -4.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | August 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bailey Ober Home: Michael Wacha
ERA: 4.45 ERA: 3.51
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 6.52 K/9: 7.22
BB/9: 2.48 BB/9: 2.47
FIP: 4.57 FIP: 3.82
IP: 87.0 IP: 138.3
xERA: 4.45 xERA: 4.12
xwOBA: 0.325 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: KC (Michael Wacha)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN KC Lg Avg
Record 56-59 48-67
R/Game 4.65 4.15 4.49
RA/Game 4.97 5.03 4.49
OPS 0.721 0.711 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.306 0.310
ERA 4.63 4.81 4.17
FIP 4.19 4.57 4.04
WHIP 1.38 1.42 1.30
K/9 8.36 7.62 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.412 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.59 5.75 4.24
BP FIP 4.03 5.31 4.10
BP WHIP 1.43 1.59
BP K/9 8.54 7.61
BP Quality* 47.9 60.6 46.4
BP IP 511.3 435.0
Bullpen Edge: MIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0345 (Temp: 1.0153 | Wind: 1.0189)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 5.0 - KC 4.6
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.0 - KC 4.6
Win Probability: MIN 54.0% - KC 46.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -117 / KC +117
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 9.0: 48.1%
Under 9.0: 43.1%
MIN +1.5: 68.9%
KC -1.5: 31.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.4 - KC 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.4 - KC 2.6
F5 Win Prob: MIN 48.1% - KC 51.9% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +108 / KC -108
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +111 -117 +6.6%
KC ML -119 +117 -8.3%
MIN +1.5 -200 -221 +2.2%
KC -1.5 +164 +221 -6.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -4.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -9.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | August 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Walker Buehler Home: Kohl Drake
ERA: 5.18 ERA: 4.85
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 7.94 K/9: 8.31
BB/9: 3.8 BB/9: 3.46
FIP: 4.35 FIP: 5.41
IP: 104.3 IP: 13.0
xERA: 4.45 xERA: 8.06
xwOBA: 0.325 xwOBA: 0.417
Pitcher Edge: SD (Walker Buehler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD ARI Lg Avg
Record 59-56 61-54
R/Game 4.23 4.58 4.49
RA/Game 4.37 4.52 4.49
OPS 0.694 0.709 0.719
wOBA 0.300 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.21 4.20 4.17
FIP 4.10 4.27 4.04
WHIP 1.33 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.27 6.89 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.506 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.94 3.80 4.24
BP FIP 2.99 3.67 4.10
BP WHIP 1.16 1.18
BP K/9 10.84 7.70
BP Quality* 41.0 43.2 46.4
BP IP 241.7 364.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Griffin Canning (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Kyle Hart (49 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 99°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (99°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0148 (Temp: 1.0408 | Wind: 0.9751)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 4.3 - ARI 4.8
Simulated Avg: SD 4.3 - ARI 4.9
Win Probability: SD 44.4% - ARI 55.6%
Fair Moneyline: SD +125 / ARI -125
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.0: 44.2%
Under 9.0: 47.0%
SD -1.5: 29.5%
ARI +1.5: 70.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.5 - ARI 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.5 - ARI 2.9
F5 Win Prob: SD 44.6% - ARI 55.4% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +124 / ARI -124
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML -104 +125 -6.6%
ARI ML -104 -125 +4.6%
SD -1.5 +149 +239 -10.7%
ARI +1.5 -180 -239 +6.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -8.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -5.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================