2026-08-07
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-07
Games: 15 | Plays: 2
======================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | August 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zac Thornton Home: Carmen Mlodzinski
ERA: 2.88 ERA: 3.15
WHIP: 1.05 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 6.29 K/9: 7.25
BB/9: 2.62 BB/9: 2.96
FIP: 3.71 FIP: 3.44
IP: 34.3 IP: 94.3
xERA: 4.83 xERA: 4.83
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM PIT Lg Avg
Record 50-66 57-60
R/Game 4.16 5.03 4.49
RA/Game 4.55 4.82 4.49
OPS 0.692 0.745 0.720
wOBA 0.299 0.323 0.310
ERA 4.09 4.31 4.18
FIP 3.82 3.76 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.32 1.30
K/9 9.13 9.36 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.458 0.519 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.77 4.37 4.24
BP FIP 3.93 4.11 4.09
BP WHIP 1.25 1.42
BP K/9 9.25 9.29
BP Quality* 47.6 48.9 46.4
BP IP 243.3 435.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Nate Lavender (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kodai Senga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Duarte (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 26%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9933 (Temp: 1.0042 | Wind: 0.9891)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 3.9 - PIT 4.8
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.9 - PIT 4.8
Win Probability: NYM 40.3% - PIT 59.7%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +148 / PIT -148
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.0: 48.8%
Under 8.0: 41.7%
NYM +1.5: 56.8%
PIT -1.5: 43.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.0 - PIT 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.0 - PIT 2.6
F5 Win Prob: NYM 41.0% - PIT 59.0% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +144 / PIT -144
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML +120 +148 -5.1%
PIT ML -129 -148 +3.3%
NYM +1.5 -184 -131 -8.0%
PIT -1.5 +152 +131 +3.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -3.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -10.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
[PITCHER MISMATCH] PITCHER MISMATCH: José Soriano (stats from LAA, scheduled for TOR)
[PITCHER MISMATCH] All edge signals suppressed — verify pitcher assignment before acting.
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | August 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: José Soriano Home: Zack Wheeler
ERA: 3.29 ERA: 2.49
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 0.91
K/9: 9.29 K/9: 10.8
BB/9: 4.17 BB/9: 1.97
FIP: 3.69 FIP: 2.97
IP: 123.0 IP: 105.0
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 2.59
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.251
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Zack Wheeler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR PHI Lg Avg
Record 54-62 62-54
R/Game 3.89 4.41 4.49
RA/Game 4.41 4.40 4.49
OPS 0.678 0.709 0.720
wOBA 0.293 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.04 4.19 4.18
FIP 3.84 3.67 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.97 9.95 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.442 0.502 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.49 4.25 4.24
BP FIP 3.73 3.52 4.09
BP WHIP 1.34 1.33
BP K/9 7.84 10.22
BP Quality* 49.8 52.2 46.4
BP IP 211.3 406.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brendon Little (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Orion Kerkering (B2B, 29 pitches)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 25%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0133 (Temp: 1.0258 | Wind: 0.9878)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 3.4 - PHI 4.6
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.4 - PHI 4.6
Win Probability: TOR 36.8% - PHI 63.2%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +172 / PHI -172
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 7.5: 51.4%
Under 7.5: 48.6%
TOR +1.5: 54.7%
PHI -1.5: 45.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 1.4 - PHI 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.5 - PHI 2.4
F5 Win Prob: TOR 32.3% - PHI 67.7% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +209 / PHI -209
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML +191 +172 +2.4%
PHI ML -206 -172 -4.1%
TOR +1.5 -117 -121 +0.8%
PHI -1.5 -103 +121 -5.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -1.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -3.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | August 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Chase Petty Home: Cade Cavalli
ERA: 4.5 ERA: 3.52
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 4.2 K/9: 9.76
BB/9: 2.4 BB/9: 2.71
FIP: 5.13 FIP: 3.11
IP: 30.0 IP: 122.7
xERA: 5.27 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.35 xwOBA: 0.311
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Cade Cavalli)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN WSH Lg Avg
Record 56-58 56-61
R/Game 4.18 5.32 4.49
RA/Game 4.70 5.24 4.49
OPS 0.709 0.766 0.720
wOBA 0.306 0.327 0.310
ERA 4.42 4.78 4.18
FIP 4.56 4.60 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.40 1.30
K/9 8.09 7.58 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.446 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.57 5.73 4.24
BP FIP 4.85 5.02 4.09
BP WHIP 1.43 1.56
BP K/9 8.33 8.46
BP Quality* 56.4 60.3 46.4
BP IP 399.7 408.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Max Kranick (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Trevor Williams (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 37%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9972 (Temp: 1.0120 | Wind: 0.9854)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 4.1 - WSH 6.4
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.1 - WSH 6.4
Win Probability: CIN 30.3% - WSH 69.7%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +230 / WSH -230
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 9.0: 55.3%
Under 9.0: 36.6%
CIN -1.5: 18.9%
WSH +1.5: 81.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 1.9 - WSH 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 1.9 - WSH 3.5
F5 Win Prob: CIN 26.4% - WSH 73.6% (Tie: 13.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +279 / WSH -279
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +106 +230 -18.2%
WSH ML -114 -230 +16.4%
CIN -1.5 +160 +429 -19.6%
WSH +1.5 -194 -429 +15.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +2.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -15.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -114 | Edge: 16.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01016
[PITCHER MISMATCH] PITCHER MISMATCH: Tyler Mahle (stats from SF, scheduled for ATL)
[PITCHER MISMATCH] All edge signals suppressed — verify pitcher assignment before acting.
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | August 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tyler Mahle Home: Max Fried
ERA: 5.13 ERA: 3.12
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 8.46 K/9: 8.16
BB/9: 3.52 BB/9: 2.76
FIP: 4.31 FIP: 2.38
IP: 94.7 IP: 75.0
xERA: 4.07 xERA: 2.39
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.241
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Max Fried)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL NYY Lg Avg
Record 70-45 64-51
R/Game 4.94 4.54 4.49
RA/Game 3.89 3.83 4.49
OPS 0.737 0.722 0.720
wOBA 0.316 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.63 3.33 4.18
FIP 3.99 3.55 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.19 1.30
K/9 8.64 9.04 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.608 0.577 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.53 3.05 4.24
BP FIP 3.58 3.75 4.09
BP WHIP 1.18 1.21
BP K/9 9.00 8.43
BP Quality* 46.1 39.8 46.4
BP IP 357.0 374.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Brent Suter (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 56%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9881 (Temp: 1.0076 | Wind: 0.9806)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 3.4 - NYY 4.7
Simulated Avg: ATL 3.4 - NYY 4.7
Win Probability: ATL 36.4% - NYY 63.6%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +175 / NYY -175
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.0: 43.4%
Under 8.0: 46.6%
ATL +1.5: 53.7%
NYY -1.5: 46.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 1.6 - NYY 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 1.6 - NYY 2.7
F5 Win Prob: ATL 31.9% - NYY 68.0% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +213 / NYY -213
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML +119 +175 -9.3%
NYY ML -128 -175 +7.5%
ATL +1.5 -186 -116 -11.3%
NYY -1.5 +153 +116 +6.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -9.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | August 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jack Perkins Home: Payton Tolle
ERA: 6.72 ERA: 3.3
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 10.87 K/9: 9.8
BB/9: 3.42 BB/9: 2.58
FIP: 4.29 FIP: 3.33
IP: 73.7 IP: 101.0
xERA: 4.01 xERA: 2.98
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.269
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Payton Tolle)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH BOS Lg Avg
Record 45-70 63-51
R/Game 4.33 4.42 4.49
RA/Game 5.70 3.75 4.49
OPS 0.718 0.721 0.720
wOBA 0.309 0.310 0.310
ERA 5.41 3.50 4.18
FIP 4.83 3.58 4.04
WHIP 1.49 1.23 1.30
K/9 8.69 8.67 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.377 0.575 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.80 3.39 4.24
BP FIP 4.81 3.53 4.09
BP WHIP 1.58 1.25
BP K/9 9.21 9.06
BP Quality* 61.1 49.0 46.4
BP IP 451.3 363.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Seth Johnson (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brady Basso (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brayan Bello (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jovani Morán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0063 (Temp: 1.0232 | Wind: 0.9835)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.0 - BOS 5.8
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.0 - BOS 5.8
Win Probability: ATH 33.5% - BOS 66.5%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +198 / BOS -198
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 8.5: 57.7%
Under 8.5: 42.3%
ATH +1.5: 48.4%
BOS -1.5: 51.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 1.9 - BOS 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 1.9 - BOS 3.0
F5 Win Prob: ATH 32.7% - BOS 67.3% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +206 / BOS -206
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML +240 +198 +4.1%
BOS ML -261 -198 -5.8%
ATH +1.5 +108 +107 +0.3%
BOS -1.5 -131 -107 -5.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +5.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -10.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | August 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: George Klassen Home: Tyler Phillips
ERA: 11.57 ERA: 3.53
WHIP: 3.64 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 11.57 K/9: 6.65
BB/9: 19.29 BB/9: 3.83
FIP: 9.7 FIP: 4.5
IP: 4.7 IP: 89.3
xERA: 11.27 xERA: 4.73
xwOBA: 0.472 xwOBA: 0.334
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Tyler Phillips)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA MIA Lg Avg
Record 44-71 58-58
R/Game 4.15 4.33 4.49
RA/Game 4.81 4.33 4.49
OPS 0.693 0.727 0.720
wOBA 0.301 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.46 4.04 4.18
FIP 4.15 3.84 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.25 1.30
K/9 9.13 8.54 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.433 0.500 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.77 4.52 4.24
BP FIP 4.66 3.78 4.09
BP WHIP 1.45 1.32
BP K/9 9.42 9.09
BP Quality* 53.1 50.2 46.4
BP IP 220.7 370.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mitch Farris (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: John King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Victor Vodnik (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0055 (Temp: 1.0147 | Wind: 0.9910)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 4.0 - MIA 5.4
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.0 - MIA 5.4
Win Probability: LAA 37.4% - MIA 62.6%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +167 / MIA -167
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.5: 55.0%
Under 8.5: 45.0%
LAA +1.5: 53.1%
MIA -1.5: 46.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.2 - MIA 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.2 - MIA 3.2
F5 Win Prob: LAA 34.8% - MIA 65.2% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +188 / MIA -188
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +137 +167 -4.8%
MIA ML -147 -167 +3.1%
LAA +1.5 -162 -113 -8.7%
MIA -1.5 +134 +113 +4.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +2.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -7.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | August 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Parker Messick Home: Noah Schultz
ERA: 2.57 ERA: 5.82
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 8.88 K/9: 8.03
BB/9: 2.57 BB/9: 4.29
FIP: 3.08 FIP: 4.55
IP: 129.7 IP: 65.0
xERA: 3.09 xERA: 5.66
xwOBA: 0.274 xwOBA: 0.361
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE CWS Lg Avg
Record 57-59 59-55
R/Game 3.96 4.77 4.49
RA/Game 4.20 4.44 4.49
OPS 0.680 0.720 0.720
wOBA 0.296 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.82 4.10 4.18
FIP 3.79 4.00 4.04
WHIP 1.27 1.31 1.30
K/9 9.41 8.56 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.533 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.80 4.11 4.24
BP FIP 3.66 4.22 4.09
BP WHIP 1.32 1.33
BP K/9 9.93 8.06
BP Quality* 48.4 54.2 46.4
BP IP 390.7 293.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Craig Yoho (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Slade Cecconi (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Chris Murphy (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erick Fedde (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (40 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9953 (Temp: 1.0114 | Wind: 0.9841)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.7 - CWS 4.1
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.7 - CWS 4.1
Win Probability: CLE 56.0% - CWS 44.0%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -127 / CWS +127
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 7.5: 59.4%
Under 7.5: 40.6%
CLE -1.5: 40.0%
CWS +1.5: 60.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.7 - CWS 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.7 - CWS 1.9
F5 Win Prob: CLE 64.3% - CWS 35.7% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -180 / CWS +180
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML -136 -127 -1.6%
CWS ML +127 +127 -0.1%
CLE -1.5 +119 +150 -5.7%
CWS +1.5 -143 -150 +1.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +7.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -11.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.4% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.1%
Fair ML: -147 | Kelly: 3.71%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01017
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | August 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zebby Matthews Home: Shane Drohan
ERA: 5.22 ERA: 3.48
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 7.67 K/9: 9.1
BB/9: 2.89 BB/9: 2.45
FIP: 4.93 FIP: 2.93
IP: 81.0 IP: 88.0
xERA: 4.64 xERA: 3.31
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.283
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Shane Drohan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN MIL Lg Avg
Record 57-59 72-43
R/Game 4.65 4.97 4.49
RA/Game 4.95 3.74 4.49
OPS 0.722 0.734 0.720
wOBA 0.312 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.62 3.44 4.18
FIP 4.18 3.40 4.04
WHIP 1.38 1.16 1.30
K/9 8.32 9.88 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.471 0.627 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.57 3.59 4.24
BP FIP 4.02 3.56 4.09
BP WHIP 1.43 1.30
BP K/9 8.56 8.97
BP Quality* 49.3 48.8 46.4
BP IP 514.3 398.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: DL Hall (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9998 (Temp: 1.0207 | Wind: 0.9795)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 4.0 - MIL 5.7
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.0 - MIL 5.6
Win Probability: MIN 34.5% - MIL 65.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +190 / MIL -190
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.0: 56.6%
Under 8.0: 34.8%
MIN +1.5: 49.9%
MIL -1.5: 50.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 1.9 - MIL 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 1.9 - MIL 3.2
F5 Win Prob: MIN 30.0% - MIL 70.0% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +233 / MIL -233
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +153 +190 -5.0%
MIL ML -165 -190 +3.2%
MIN +1.5 -149 +100 -9.9%
MIL -1.5 +123 -100 +5.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +4.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -17.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | August 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Daniel Lynch IV
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC KC Lg Avg
Record 67-49 48-68
R/Game 5.13 4.14 4.49
RA/Game 4.27 5.03 4.49
OPS 0.753 0.708 0.720
wOBA 0.326 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.05 4.80 4.18
FIP 4.52 4.58 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.42 1.30
K/9 7.79 7.59 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.583 0.412 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.35 5.77 4.24
BP FIP 4.53 5.31 4.09
BP WHIP 1.34 1.60
BP K/9 8.42 7.62
BP Quality* 57.6 62.3 46.4
BP IP 479.7 438.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Aaron Civale (45 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Nate Pearson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Warm (85°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0056 (Temp: 1.0192 | Wind: 0.9867)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 4.8 - KC 4.6
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.8 - KC 4.6
Win Probability: CHC 51.2% - KC 48.8%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -105 / KC +105
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 9.5: 45.7%
Under 9.5: 54.3%
CHC -1.5: 35.7%
KC +1.5: 64.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 1.9 - KC 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 1.9 - KC 2.3
F5 Win Prob: CHC 43.2% - KC 56.8% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +131 / KC -131
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -165 -105 -11.1%
KC ML +153 +105 +9.3%
CHC -1.5 -107 +180 -16.0%
KC +1.5 -112 -180 +11.5%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -6.7%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +1.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Kansas City Royals +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -112 | Edge: 11.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01018
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | August 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryan Feltner Home: Kyle Leahy
ERA: 5.75 ERA: 3.44
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 6.69 K/9: 7.63
BB/9: 3.52 BB/9: 2.93
FIP: 5.67 FIP: 3.84
IP: 76.7 IP: 107.3
xERA: 5.62 xERA: 5.2
xwOBA: 0.36 xwOBA: 0.348
Pitcher Edge: STL (Kyle Leahy)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL STL Lg Avg
Record 45-70 57-58
R/Game 4.82 4.34 4.49
RA/Game 5.76 4.43 4.49
OPS 0.744 0.694 0.720
wOBA 0.320 0.301 0.310
ERA 5.51 4.12 4.18
FIP 4.68 3.97 4.04
WHIP 1.51 1.34 1.30
K/9 7.12 7.72 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.419 0.491 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.23 4.25 4.24
BP FIP 4.45 4.04 4.09
BP WHIP 1.54 1.37
BP K/9 7.51 7.98
BP Quality* 56.1 46.6 46.4
BP IP 299.7 434.3
Bullpen Edge: STL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Parker Mushinski (2 of last 3 days)
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0021 (Temp: 1.0165 | Wind: 0.9858)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.7 - STL 5.7
Simulated Avg: COL 4.7 - STL 5.7
Win Probability: COL 41.0% - STL 59.0%
Fair Moneyline: COL +144 / STL -144
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 8.5: 62.6%
Under 8.5: 37.4%
COL +1.5: 55.4%
STL -1.5: 44.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.6 - STL 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.7 - STL 3.3
F5 Win Prob: COL 41.3% - STL 58.7% (Tie: 13.9%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +142 / STL -142
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +151 +144 +1.1%
STL ML -162 -144 -2.8%
COL +1.5 -143 -124 -3.5%
STL -1.5 +119 +124 -1.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +10.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -15.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01019
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | August 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shane Baz Home: Nathan Eovaldi
ERA: 3.86 ERA: 4.31
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 7.78 K/9: 9.54
BB/9: 3.16 BB/9: 2.12
FIP: 3.33 FIP: 4.14
IP: 128.3 IP: 127.3
xERA: 4.3 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Shane Baz)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL TEX Lg Avg
Record 56-59 57-58
R/Game 4.49 4.15 4.49
RA/Game 4.77 4.43 4.49
OPS 0.710 0.720 0.720
wOBA 0.308 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.20 4.29 4.18
FIP 4.02 4.00 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.29 1.30
K/9 8.01 8.62 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.472 0.469 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.39 4.42 4.24
BP FIP 4.02 4.21 4.09
BP WHIP 1.34 1.37
BP K/9 8.58 8.08
BP Quality* 50.9 50.7 46.4
BP IP 381.7 374.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0099 (Temp: 1.0369 | Wind: 0.9739)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 4.9 - TEX 4.5
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.9 - TEX 4.5
Win Probability: BAL 53.5% - TEX 46.5%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -115 / TEX +115
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 7.5: 63.4%
Under 7.5: 36.6%
BAL +1.5: 69.0%
TEX -1.5: 31.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 2.6 - TEX 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.6 - TEX 2.3
F5 Win Prob: BAL 56.1% - TEX 43.9% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -128 / TEX +128
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML +129 -115 +9.9%
TEX ML -139 +115 -11.7%
BAL +1.5 -187 -223 +3.9%
TEX -1.5 +154 +223 -8.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +11.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -15.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01020
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | August 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Roki Sasaki Home: Merrill Kelly
ERA: 4.64 ERA: 5.04
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.49
K/9: 9.18 K/9: 5.98
BB/9: 3.55 BB/9: 3.62
FIP: 4.87 FIP: 5.59
IP: 99.0 IP: 114.3
xERA: 4.21 xERA: 7.17
xwOBA: 0.317 xwOBA: 0.398
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Roki Sasaki)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD ARI Lg Avg
Record 69-46 61-55
R/Game 5.08 4.55 4.49
RA/Game 3.86 4.53 4.49
OPS 0.771 0.707 0.720
wOBA 0.329 0.304 0.310
ERA 3.74 4.21 4.18
FIP 3.88 4.27 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.30 1.30
K/9 9.09 6.87 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.623 0.503 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.25 3.79 4.24
BP FIP 3.88 3.66 4.09
BP WHIP 1.28 1.19
BP K/9 9.86 7.66
BP Quality* 47.7 46.2 46.4
BP IP 341.3 370.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Evan Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Philip Abner (52 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 6.3 - ARI 5.0
Simulated Avg: LAD 6.3 - ARI 5.0
Win Probability: LAD 60.2% - ARI 39.8%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -152 / ARI +152
Avg Total Runs: 11.3
Over 9.0: 61.0%
Under 9.0: 31.7%
LAD -1.5: 46.8%
ARI +1.5: 53.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 4.0 - ARI 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 4.0 - ARI 2.8
F5 Win Prob: LAD 65.1% - ARI 34.9% (Tie: 12.3%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -187 / ARI +187
F5 Avg Total: 6.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -171 -152 -2.8%
ARI ML +159 +152 +1.1%
LAD -1.5 -112 +114 -6.0%
ARI +1.5 -107 -114 +1.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +8.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -20.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.6%
Fair ML: -156 | Kelly: 4.52%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01021
[PITCHER MISMATCH] PITCHER MISMATCH: Robbie Ray (stats from SF, scheduled for SD)
[PITCHER MISMATCH] All edge signals suppressed — verify pitcher assignment before acting.
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | August 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ronel Blanco Home: Robbie Ray
ERA: 7.36 ERA: 3.08
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 9.82 K/9: 7.85
BB/9: 4.91 BB/9: 4.18
FIP: 6.98 FIP: 4.34
IP: 14.7 IP: 122.7
xERA: 4.77 xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: 0.335 xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: SD (Robbie Ray)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU SD Lg Avg
Record 59-57 60-56
R/Game 4.66 4.23 4.49
RA/Game 4.87 4.34 4.49
OPS 0.738 0.696 0.720
wOBA 0.315 0.301 0.310
ERA 4.60 4.18 4.18
FIP 4.49 4.07 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.33 1.30
K/9 8.92 8.29 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.479 0.488 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.25 2.91 4.24
BP FIP 4.39 2.94 4.09
BP WHIP 1.30 1.15
BP K/9 9.01 10.93
BP Quality* 48.7 37.5 46.4
BP IP 414.7 244.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Griffin Canning (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0141 (Temp: 1.0041 | Wind: 1.0100)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.0 - SD 5.2
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.0 - SD 5.2
Win Probability: HOU 38.7% - SD 61.3%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +159 / SD -159
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.0: 53.0%
Under 8.0: 37.8%
HOU +1.5: 54.8%
SD -1.5: 45.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.4 - SD 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.4 - SD 3.2
F5 Win Prob: HOU 39.3% - SD 60.7% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +154 / SD -154
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +109 +159 -9.2%
SD ML -117 -159 +7.4%
HOU +1.5 -193 -121 -11.1%
SD -1.5 +159 +121 +6.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +0.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -14.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | August 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Drew Rasmussen Home: Logan Gilbert
ERA: 2.91 ERA: 3.46
WHIP: 0.93 WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 9.36 K/9: 9.43
BB/9: 1.53 BB/9: 1.9
FIP: 2.86 FIP: 3.3
IP: 117.3 IP: 132.7
xERA: 3.14 xERA: 3.63
xwOBA: 0.276 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: TB (Drew Rasmussen)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB SEA Lg Avg
Record 68-46 56-60
R/Game 4.47 3.95 4.49
RA/Game 4.11 4.07 4.49
OPS 0.732 0.687 0.720
wOBA 0.314 0.299 0.310
ERA 3.74 3.82 4.18
FIP 3.95 3.60 4.04
WHIP 1.15 1.20 1.30
K/9 8.25 8.71 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.538 0.486 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.74 3.61 4.24
BP FIP 4.04 3.86 4.09
BP WHIP 1.16 1.31
BP K/9 8.65 9.11
BP Quality* 45.8 47.2 46.4
BP IP 399.7 339.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Cole Wilcox (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Rucker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Simpson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9966 (Temp: 1.0078 | Wind: 0.9889)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 3.7 - SEA 3.1
Simulated Avg: TB 3.7 - SEA 3.1
Win Probability: TB 57.1% - SEA 42.9%
Fair Moneyline: TB -133 / SEA +133
Avg Total Runs: 6.8
Over 7.0: 39.8%
Under 7.0: 49.4%
TB -1.5: 37.9%
SEA +1.5: 62.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 1.9 - SEA 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 1.9 - SEA 1.5
F5 Win Prob: TB 59.7% - SEA 40.3% (Tie: 20.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -148 / SEA +148
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML +104 -133 +8.1%
SEA ML -112 +133 -10.0%
TB -1.5 +174 +164 +1.4%
SEA +1.5 -213 -164 -5.9%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -12.6%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -3.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | August 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Keider Montero Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET SF Lg Avg
Record 56-59 48-67
R/Game 4.57 4.17 4.49
RA/Game 3.88 4.65 4.49
OPS 0.732 0.722 0.720
wOBA 0.316 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.53 4.38 4.18
FIP 3.67 4.07 4.04
WHIP 1.21 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.44 7.77 8.51
Pythag Win% 0.575 0.450 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.30 4.72 4.24
BP FIP 4.34 4.45 4.09
BP WHIP 1.38 1.49
BP K/9 8.27 6.87
BP Quality* 49.6 52.8 46.4
BP IP 297.0 289.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brenan Hanifee (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jason Foley (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Cool (60°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9643 (Temp: 0.9850 | Wind: 0.9790)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 4.3 - SF 3.6
Simulated Avg: DET 4.4 - SF 3.6
Win Probability: DET 58.0% - SF 42.0%
Fair Moneyline: DET -138 / SF +138
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.5: 41.9%
Under 8.5: 58.1%
DET -1.5: 40.8%
SF +1.5: 59.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 2.3 - SF 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.3 - SF 1.8
F5 Win Prob: DET 60.7% - SF 39.3% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -155 / SF +155
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -128 -138 +1.8%
SF ML +119 +138 -3.6%
DET -1.5 +129 +145 -2.9%
SF +1.5 -156 -145 -1.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -10.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +5.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================