2026-08-08
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-08
Games: 15 | Plays: 4
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | August 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chris Sale Home: Gerrit Cole
ERA: 2.08 ERA: 3.42
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 11.0 K/9: 9.53
BB/9: 2.0 BB/9: 2.08
FIP: 2.21 FIP: 3.62
IP: 117.0 IP: 73.7
xERA: 3.04 xERA: 3.4
xwOBA: 0.272 xwOBA: 0.287
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Chris Sale)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL NYY Lg Avg
Record 70-46 65-51
R/Game 4.91 4.53 4.49
RA/Game 3.88 3.82 4.49
OPS 0.736 0.721 0.720
wOBA 0.316 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.61 3.32 4.17
FIP 3.97 3.55 4.05
WHIP 1.24 1.18 1.30
K/9 8.69 9.05 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.606 0.577 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.54 3.07 4.24
BP FIP 3.58 3.79 4.09
BP WHIP 1.20 1.21
BP K/9 9.06 8.44
BP Quality* 49.3 41.5 46.4
BP IP 360.7 378.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Dylan Lee (B2B, 30 pitches)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 13%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9898 (Temp: 1.0277 | Wind: 0.9631)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 4.1 - NYY 3.6
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.1 - NYY 3.6
Win Probability: ATL 55.3% - NYY 44.7%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -124 / NYY +124
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.5: 49.0%
Under 7.5: 51.0%
ATL -1.5: 37.6%
NYY +1.5: 62.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 2.2 - NYY 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.2 - NYY 1.5
F5 Win Prob: ATL 65.5% - NYY 34.5% (Tie: 19.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -189 / NYY +189
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -136 -124 -2.3%
NYY ML +126 +124 +0.5%
ATL -1.5 +123 +166 -7.2%
NYY +1.5 -148 -166 +2.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -3.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -1.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | August 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Gage Jump Home: Jake Bennett
ERA: 4.59 ERA: 2.9
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 9.86 K/9: 6.31
BB/9: 4.19 BB/9: 1.64
FIP: 3.67 FIP: 3.16
IP: 66.7 IP: 71.3
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 3.02
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Jake Bennett)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH BOS Lg Avg
Record 45-71 64-51
R/Game 4.30 4.50 4.49
RA/Game 5.76 3.72 4.49
OPS 0.714 0.724 0.720
wOBA 0.308 0.311 0.310
ERA 5.47 3.48 4.17
FIP 4.84 3.56 4.05
WHIP 1.50 1.22 1.30
K/9 8.66 8.73 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.370 0.586 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.86 3.36 4.24
BP FIP 4.79 3.52 4.09
BP WHIP 1.59 1.24
BP K/9 9.15 9.03
BP Quality* 61.3 45.8 46.4
BP IP 456.3 366.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Hayden Juenger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Scott Blewett (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Raymond Burgos (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jovani Morán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9906 (Temp: 1.0261 | Wind: 0.9654)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 3.7 - BOS 5.4
Simulated Avg: ATH 3.7 - BOS 5.3
Win Probability: ATH 33.9% - BOS 66.1%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +195 / BOS -195
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 9.0: 42.4%
Under 9.0: 48.6%
ATH +1.5: 49.8%
BOS -1.5: 50.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 1.8 - BOS 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 1.8 - BOS 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ATH 35.9% - BOS 64.1% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +179 / BOS -179
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +234 +195 +4.0%
BOS ML -254 -195 -5.7%
ATH +1.5 +113 +101 +2.8%
BOS -1.5 -136 -101 -7.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -10.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -3.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | August 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Walbert Ureña Home: Sandy Alcantara
ERA: 2.54 ERA: 3.68
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 8.61 K/9: 6.89
BB/9: 4.71 BB/9: 2.36
FIP: 3.54 FIP: 3.76
IP: 99.3 IP: 156.7
xERA: 3.25 xERA: 3.74
xwOBA: 0.281 xwOBA: 0.3
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA MIA Lg Avg
Record 45-71 58-59
R/Game 4.15 4.32 4.49
RA/Game 4.79 4.32 4.49
OPS 0.693 0.728 0.720
wOBA 0.301 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.45 4.01 4.17
FIP 4.14 3.85 4.05
WHIP 1.36 1.25 1.30
K/9 9.10 8.54 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.434 0.499 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.60 4.46 4.24
BP FIP 4.51 3.80 4.09
BP WHIP 1.42 1.31
BP K/9 9.29 9.09
BP Quality* 56.0 53.0 46.4
BP IP 221.0 375.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Shaun Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ben Joyce (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: John King (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0116 (Temp: 1.0225 | Wind: 0.9894)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 3.8 - MIA 3.9
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.8 - MIA 3.9
Win Probability: LAA 48.8% - MIA 51.2%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +105 / MIA -105
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.5: 49.4%
Under 7.5: 50.6%
LAA +1.5: 66.6%
MIA -1.5: 33.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 1.9 - MIA 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.9 - MIA 1.7
F5 Win Prob: LAA 53.6% - MIA 46.4% (Tie: 20.0%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA -115 / MIA +115
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +146 +105 +8.1%
MIA ML -156 -105 -9.7%
LAA +1.5 -153 -199 +6.1%
MIA -1.5 +126 +199 -10.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -3.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -1.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | August 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Max Scherzer Home: Aaron Nola
ERA: 7.92 ERA: 5.55
WHIP: 1.63 WHIP: 1.44
K/9: 6.75 K/9: 9.08
BB/9: 4.4 BB/9: 3.08
FIP: 6.88 FIP: 5.14
IP: 30.7 IP: 120.0
xERA: 5.44 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.355 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Aaron Nola)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR PHI Lg Avg
Record 55-62 62-55
R/Game 3.90 4.41 4.49
RA/Game 4.41 4.40 4.49
OPS 0.680 0.708 0.720
wOBA 0.294 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.02 4.20 4.17
FIP 3.85 3.69 4.05
WHIP 1.32 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.95 9.93 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.444 0.501 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.49 4.25 4.24
BP FIP 3.81 3.54 4.09
BP WHIP 1.36 1.33
BP K/9 7.77 10.20
BP Quality* 50.4 53.8 46.4
BP IP 214.3 408.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brendon Little (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Lee (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Shugart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 28%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0145 (Temp: 1.0266 | Wind: 0.9882)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 4.7 - PHI 6.5
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.7 - PHI 6.5
Win Probability: TOR 35.4% - PHI 64.6%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +183 / PHI -183
Avg Total Runs: 11.2
Over 9.5: 60.2%
Under 9.5: 39.8%
TOR +1.5: 49.0%
PHI -1.5: 51.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.7 - PHI 4.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.6 - PHI 4.1
F5 Win Prob: TOR 31.6% - PHI 68.4% (Tie: 12.0%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +217 / PHI -217
F5 Avg Total: 6.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +149 +183 -4.8%
PHI ML -160 -183 +3.1%
TOR +1.5 -144 +104 -10.0%
PHI -1.5 +119 -104 +5.3%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +7.9%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -12.6%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.2% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.9%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.13%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01022
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | August 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Robert Stock Home: Bubba Chandler
ERA: 1.8 ERA: 4.49
WHIP: 0.6 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 7.2 K/9: 7.99
BB/9: 0.0 BB/9: 4.98
FIP: 4.1 FIP: 4.16
IP: 5.0 IP: 110.3
xERA: 5.23 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.349 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM PIT Lg Avg
Record 51-66 57-61
R/Game 4.17 5.02 4.49
RA/Game 4.55 4.83 4.49
OPS 0.692 0.746 0.720
wOBA 0.299 0.323 0.310
ERA 4.09 4.32 4.17
FIP 3.82 3.76 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.33 1.30
K/9 9.09 9.34 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.461 0.517 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.29 4.10 4.24
BP FIP 4.21 3.96 4.09
BP WHIP 1.37 1.36
BP K/9 9.12 9.28
BP Quality* 51.6 48.3 46.4
BP IP 203.3 485.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Dedniel Núñez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Duarte (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jefry Yan (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Evan Sisk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (43 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9935 (Temp: 1.0162 | Wind: 0.9776)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 4.1 - PIT 4.8
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.1 - PIT 4.8
Win Probability: NYM 42.5% - PIT 57.5%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +135 / PIT -135
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.0: 41.6%
Under 9.0: 49.5%
NYM +1.5: 58.8%
PIT -1.5: 41.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.3 - PIT 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.2 - PIT 2.4
F5 Win Prob: NYM 47.5% - PIT 52.5% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +111 / PIT -111
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +112 +135 -4.6%
PIT ML -120 -135 +2.9%
NYM +1.5 -191 -143 -6.8%
PIT -1.5 +157 +143 +2.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -10.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -2.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | August 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chase Burns Home: Andrew Alvarez
ERA: 2.35 ERA: 3.94
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 10.39 K/9: 8.86
BB/9: 3.26 BB/9: 4.36
FIP: 3.3 FIP: 2.99
IP: 118.7 IP: 64.0
xERA: 3.18 xERA: 4.54
xwOBA: 0.278 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Andrew Alvarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN WSH Lg Avg
Record 56-59 57-61
R/Game 4.17 5.32 4.49
RA/Game 4.70 5.22 4.49
OPS 0.710 0.766 0.720
wOBA 0.307 0.327 0.310
ERA 4.42 4.76 4.17
FIP 4.56 4.62 4.05
WHIP 1.40 1.40 1.30
K/9 8.11 7.60 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.445 0.509 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.55 5.68 4.24
BP FIP 4.79 5.01 4.09
BP WHIP 1.43 1.55
BP K/9 8.74 8.44
BP Quality* 56.0 61.5 46.4
BP IP 376.0 411.7
Bullpen Edge: CIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Luis Mey (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yovanny Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 23%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0092 (Temp: 1.0288 | Wind: 0.9810)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 4.3 - WSH 5.0
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.3 - WSH 5.0
Win Probability: CIN 44.3% - WSH 55.7%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +126 / WSH -126
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.5: 54.0%
Under 8.5: 46.0%
CIN -1.5: 29.7%
WSH +1.5: 70.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.0 - WSH 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.0 - WSH 2.1
F5 Win Prob: CIN 48.2% - WSH 51.8% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +107 / WSH -107
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML -140 +126 -14.1%
WSH ML +131 -126 +12.4%
CIN -1.5 +113 +237 -17.3%
WSH +1.5 -136 -237 +12.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +1.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -6.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -136 | Edge: 12.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01023
[PITCHER MISMATCH] PITCHER MISMATCH: Clay Holmes (stats from NYM, scheduled for CHC)
[PITCHER MISMATCH] All edge signals suppressed — verify pitcher assignment before acting.
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | August 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Clay Holmes Home: Seth Lugo
ERA: 2.39 ERA: 4.41
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 7.69 K/9: 6.92
BB/9: 3.08 BB/9: 3.15
FIP: 3.16 FIP: 4.13
IP: 52.7 IP: 128.7
xERA: 3.9 xERA: 5.33
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.352
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Clay Holmes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC KC Lg Avg
Record 68-49 48-69
R/Game 5.14 4.14 4.49
RA/Game 4.26 5.03 4.49
OPS 0.754 0.708 0.720
wOBA 0.326 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.05 4.82 4.17
FIP 4.51 4.59 4.05
WHIP 1.25 1.42 1.30
K/9 7.78 7.56 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.584 0.411 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.37 5.77 4.24
BP FIP 4.52 5.30 4.09
BP WHIP 1.35 1.60
BP K/9 8.45 7.56
BP Quality* 54.7 63.8 46.4
BP IP 481.7 447.3
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Caleb Thielbar (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Jose Cuas (B2B, 29 pitches)
TIRED: Mason Black (86 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0160 (Temp: 1.0258 | Wind: 0.9904)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 6.2 - KC 4.0
Simulated Avg: CHC 6.2 - KC 4.0
Win Probability: CHC 68.6% - KC 31.4%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -218 / KC +218
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 9.5: 52.5%
Under 9.5: 47.4%
CHC -1.5: 54.4%
KC +1.5: 45.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 3.1 - KC 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 3.1 - KC 1.8
F5 Win Prob: CHC 70.9% - KC 29.1% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -243 / KC +243
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -162 -218 +6.8%
KC ML +151 +218 -8.4%
CHC -1.5 -108 -119 +2.5%
KC +1.5 -112 +119 -7.3%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +0.2%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -4.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | August 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Taj Bradley Home: Robert Gasser
ERA: 3.69 ERA: 4.48
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 10.02 K/9: 8.37
BB/9: 3.77 BB/9: 2.31
FIP: 3.87 FIP: 4.3
IP: 126.7 IP: 62.3
xERA: 3.93 xERA: 3.85
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.304
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Taj Bradley)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN MIL Lg Avg
Record 58-59 72-44
R/Game 4.68 4.97 4.49
RA/Game 4.96 3.78 4.49
OPS 0.725 0.734 0.720
wOBA 0.313 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.60 3.48 4.17
FIP 4.18 3.42 4.05
WHIP 1.38 1.16 1.30
K/9 8.33 9.85 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.623 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.53 3.60 4.24
BP FIP 4.01 3.54 4.09
BP WHIP 1.43 1.30
BP K/9 8.58 8.95
BP Quality* 55.2 47.3 46.4
BP IP 518.3 402.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryse Wilson (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: DL Hall (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0171 (Temp: 1.0144 | Wind: 1.0026)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 4.7 - MIL 5.3
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.7 - MIL 5.3
Win Probability: MIN 44.5% - MIL 55.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +125 / MIL -125
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 8.0: 59.4%
Under 8.0: 32.3%
MIN +1.5: 59.7%
MIL -1.5: 40.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.6 - MIL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.6 - MIL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: MIN 50.3% - MIL 49.7% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -101 / MIL +101
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +126 +125 +0.2%
MIL ML -136 -125 -2.1%
MIN +1.5 -172 -148 -3.6%
MIL -1.5 +142 +148 -1.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +7.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -20.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.4% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.0%
Fair ML: -146 | Kelly: 3.68%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01024
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | August 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Peter Lambert Home: Michael King
ERA: 3.06 ERA: 3.45
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 8.94 K/9: 7.87
BB/9: 3.4 BB/9: 3.73
FIP: 3.56 FIP: 3.99
IP: 108.7 IP: 130.3
xERA: 3.35 xERA: 4.54
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Peter Lambert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU SD Lg Avg
Record 60-57 60-57
R/Game 4.67 4.22 4.49
RA/Game 4.85 4.36 4.49
OPS 0.741 0.696 0.720
wOBA 0.316 0.301 0.310
ERA 4.59 4.19 4.17
FIP 4.49 4.10 4.05
WHIP 1.36 1.33 1.30
K/9 8.90 8.24 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.482 0.485 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.21 2.92 4.24
BP FIP 4.36 3.01 4.09
BP WHIP 1.30 1.15
BP K/9 9.04 10.84
BP Quality* 53.0 36.4 46.4
BP IP 419.0 246.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0252 (Temp: 1.0114 | Wind: 1.0137)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.0 - SD 4.0
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.0 - SD 4.0
Win Probability: HOU 49.7% - SD 50.3%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +101 / SD -101
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.0: 42.3%
Under 8.0: 47.9%
HOU +1.5: 67.2%
SD -1.5: 32.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.5 - SD 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.5 - SD 1.9
F5 Win Prob: HOU 60.5% - SD 39.5% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -153 / SD +153
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +108 +101 +1.6%
SD ML -116 -101 -3.4%
HOU +1.5 -204 -205 +0.1%
SD -1.5 +167 +205 -4.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -10.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -4.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] DET starter (id 695549) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (the model never uses prior-season data).
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | August 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Player 695549 Home: Landen Roupp
ERA: 0.0 ERA: 4.34
WHIP: 0.0 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 0.0 K/9: 9.13
BB/9: 0.0 BB/9: 3.95
FIP: 0.0 FIP: 3.38
IP: 0.0 IP: 118.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.58
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.294
Pitcher Edge: DET (Player 695549)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET SF Lg Avg
Record 56-60 49-67
R/Game 4.55 4.17 4.49
RA/Game 3.89 4.63 4.49
OPS 0.731 0.721 0.720
wOBA 0.315 0.307 0.310
ERA 3.55 4.36 4.17
FIP 3.68 4.06 4.05
WHIP 1.21 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.44 7.77 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.572 0.453 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.27 4.69 4.24
BP FIP 4.31 4.44 4.09
BP WHIP 1.37 1.50
BP K/9 8.31 6.86
BP Quality* 52.3 52.7 46.4
BP IP 299.0 293.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Enmanuel De Jesus (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brenan Hanifee (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Adrian Houser (86 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9658 (Temp: 0.9929 | Wind: 0.9727)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 4.0 - SF 3.4
Simulated Avg: DET 4.0 - SF 3.4
Win Probability: DET 57.5% - SF 42.5%
Fair Moneyline: DET -135 / SF +135
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 8.0: 36.1%
Under 8.0: 54.4%
DET -1.5: 39.3%
SF +1.5: 60.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 2.0 - SF 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.0 - SF 1.5
F5 Win Prob: DET 61.8% - SF 38.2% (Tie: 20.2%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -161 / SF +161
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -112 -135 +4.7%
SF ML +104 +135 -6.5%
DET -1.5 +144 +154 -1.7%
SF +1.5 -175 -154 -3.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -16.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +2.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | August 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kyle Freeland Home: Matthew Liberatore
ERA: 6.81 ERA: 4.97
WHIP: 1.49 WHIP: 1.49
K/9: 7.73 K/9: 8.86
BB/9: 1.91 BB/9: 3.4
FIP: 4.54 FIP: 4.54
IP: 108.3 IP: 108.7
xERA: 5.23 xERA: 4.86
xwOBA: 0.349 xwOBA: 0.338
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL STL Lg Avg
Record 45-71 58-58
R/Game 4.79 4.33 4.49
RA/Game 5.73 4.41 4.49
OPS 0.743 0.693 0.720
wOBA 0.319 0.300 0.310
ERA 5.49 4.10 4.17
FIP 4.68 3.94 4.05
WHIP 1.51 1.34 1.30
K/9 7.12 7.74 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.419 0.492 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.20 4.21 4.24
BP FIP 4.44 4.03 4.09
BP WHIP 1.54 1.37
BP K/9 7.56 7.95
BP Quality* 52.9 50.9 46.4
BP IP 301.3 438.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0032 (Temp: 1.0241 | Wind: 0.9796)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 5.2 - STL 5.4
Simulated Avg: COL 5.2 - STL 5.4
Win Probability: COL 48.9% - STL 51.1%
Fair Moneyline: COL +104 / STL -104
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 8.5: 64.2%
Under 8.5: 35.8%
COL +1.5: 63.2%
STL -1.5: 36.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 3.0 - STL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 3.0 - STL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: COL 48.9% - STL 51.1% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +105 / STL -105
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +138 +104 +6.9%
STL ML -148 -104 -8.6%
COL +1.5 -162 -172 +1.4%
STL -1.5 +134 +172 -6.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +11.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -16.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01025
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | August 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kyle Bradish Home: Jacob deGrom
ERA: 3.79 ERA: 3.96
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 8.7 K/9: 10.69
BB/9: 4.02 BB/9: 2.3
FIP: 3.9 FIP: 3.32
IP: 121.0 IP: 113.7
xERA: 4.01 xERA: 3.58
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.294
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Jacob deGrom)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL TEX Lg Avg
Record 56-60 58-58
R/Game 4.46 4.13 4.49
RA/Game 4.75 4.41 4.49
OPS 0.709 0.718 0.720
wOBA 0.307 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.18 4.26 4.17
FIP 4.01 3.99 4.05
WHIP 1.34 1.28 1.30
K/9 8.03 8.60 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.471 0.470 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.39 4.39 4.24
BP FIP 4.02 4.19 4.09
BP WHIP 1.34 1.36
BP K/9 8.58 8.09
BP Quality* 46.4 52.0 46.4
BP IP 381.7 377.3
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (32 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 98°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Hot (98°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0142 (Temp: 1.0394 | Wind: 0.9757)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 4.5 - TEX 4.4
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.5 - TEX 4.4
Win Probability: BAL 51.3% - TEX 48.7%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -105 / TEX +105
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 7.5: 59.9%
Under 7.5: 40.1%
BAL +1.5: 67.3%
TEX -1.5: 32.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 2.3 - TEX 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.3 - TEX 2.3
F5 Win Prob: BAL 48.8% - TEX 51.2% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +105 / TEX -105
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML +129 -105 +7.7%
TEX ML -138 +105 -9.3%
BAL +1.5 -188 -206 +2.0%
TEX -1.5 +154 +206 -6.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +7.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -12.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.5%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.95%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01026
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | August 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gavin Williams Home: Anthony Kay
ERA: 3.56 ERA: 4.01
WHIP: 1.04 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 11.53 K/9: 7.36
BB/9: 2.53 BB/9: 3.44
FIP: 3.34 FIP: 4.26
IP: 139.0 IP: 110.0
xERA: 3.85 xERA: 4.99
xwOBA: 0.304 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Gavin Williams)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE CWS Lg Avg
Record 58-59 59-56
R/Game 3.99 4.75 4.49
RA/Game 4.18 4.47 4.49
OPS 0.681 0.720 0.720
wOBA 0.296 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.80 4.13 4.17
FIP 3.79 4.01 4.05
WHIP 1.27 1.31 1.30
K/9 9.44 8.54 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.479 0.528 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.78 4.07 4.24
BP FIP 3.64 4.21 4.09
BP WHIP 1.32 1.32
BP K/9 9.97 8.00
BP Quality* 46.8 55.4 46.4
BP IP 392.7 296.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Franco Aleman (44 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Craig Yoho (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Trevor Richards (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: David Sandlin (96 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Erick Fedde (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0014 (Temp: 1.0041 | Wind: 0.9973)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.4 - CWS 4.5
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.4 - CWS 4.5
Win Probability: CLE 48.6% - CWS 51.4%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +106 / CWS -106
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 7.5: 59.6%
Under 7.5: 40.4%
CLE -1.5: 32.9%
CWS +1.5: 67.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.4 - CWS 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.4 - CWS 2.3
F5 Win Prob: CLE 51.2% - CWS 48.8% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -105 / CWS +105
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML -124 +106 -6.7%
CWS ML +116 -106 +5.1%
CLE -1.5 +133 +204 -10.0%
CWS +1.5 -161 -204 +5.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +7.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -12.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.6% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.3%
Fair ML: -148 | Kelly: 3.81%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01027
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | August 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Home: Brandon Pfaadt
ERA: 2.76 ERA: 3.66
WHIP: 0.88 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 8.15 K/9: 5.95
BB/9: 1.95 BB/9: 2.52
FIP: 3.4 FIP: 3.94
IP: 133.7 IP: 78.7
xERA: 3.11 xERA: 3.82
xwOBA: 0.275 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Yoshinobu Yamamoto)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD ARI Lg Avg
Record 69-47 62-55
R/Game 5.06 4.55 4.49
RA/Game 3.86 4.51 4.49
OPS 0.770 0.709 0.720
wOBA 0.329 0.305 0.310
ERA 3.75 4.20 4.17
FIP 3.90 4.27 4.05
WHIP 1.16 1.30 1.30
K/9 9.10 6.87 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.621 0.503 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.27 3.81 4.24
BP FIP 3.91 3.68 4.09
BP WHIP 1.29 1.19
BP K/9 9.90 7.67
BP Quality* 46.4 46.4 46.4
BP IP 343.7 373.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 4.8 - ARI 4.0
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.8 - ARI 4.0
Win Probability: LAD 57.3% - ARI 42.7%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -134 / ARI +134
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 49.7%
Under 8.5: 50.3%
LAD -1.5: 41.0%
ARI +1.5: 59.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 2.6 - ARI 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.6 - ARI 1.9
F5 Win Prob: LAD 60.9% - ARI 39.1% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -156 / ARI +156
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -171 -134 -5.8%
ARI ML +159 +134 +4.1%
LAD -1.5 -108 +144 -11.0%
ARI +1.5 -112 -144 +6.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | August 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Griffin Jax Home: George Kirby
ERA: 3.63 ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 9.82 K/9: 7.8
BB/9: 2.95 BB/9: 1.84
FIP: 3.89 FIP: 3.52
IP: 91.7 IP: 127.0
xERA: 4.39 xERA: 3.87
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: SEA (George Kirby)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB SEA Lg Avg
Record 69-46 56-61
R/Game 4.45 3.92 4.49
RA/Game 4.09 4.05 4.49
OPS 0.732 0.684 0.720
wOBA 0.314 0.298 0.310
ERA 3.71 3.81 4.17
FIP 3.94 3.62 4.05
WHIP 1.15 1.20 1.30
K/9 8.28 8.70 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.539 0.485 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.74 3.59 4.24
BP FIP 4.05 3.85 4.09
BP WHIP 1.16 1.31
BP K/9 8.69 9.10
BP Quality* 44.3 44.1 46.4
BP IP 401.7 341.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0389 (Temp: 1.0055 | Wind: 1.0332)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 3.9 - SEA 3.7
Simulated Avg: TB 3.9 - SEA 3.7
Win Probability: TB 51.5% - SEA 48.5%
Fair Moneyline: TB -106 / SEA +106
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.0: 48.1%
Under 7.0: 41.4%
TB -1.5: 34.0%
SEA +1.5: 66.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 2.1 - SEA 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.1 - SEA 2.0
F5 Win Prob: TB 51.8% - SEA 48.2% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -107 / SEA +107
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +105 -106 +2.7%
SEA ML -112 +106 -4.3%
TB -1.5 +173 +194 -2.7%
SEA +1.5 -211 -194 -1.8%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -4.3%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -11.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================