2026-08-09
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-09
Games: 15 | Plays: 4
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | August 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brady Singer Home: Brad Lord
ERA: 4.67 ERA: 3.81
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 7.68 K/9: 7.93
BB/9: 3.09 BB/9: 3.2
FIP: 4.82 FIP: 3.95
IP: 113.7 IP: 59.0
xERA: 4.95 xERA: 4.24
xwOBA: 0.341 xwOBA: 0.318
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Brad Lord)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN WSH Lg Avg
Record 56-60 58-61
R/Game 4.15 5.34 4.49
RA/Game 4.73 5.19 4.48
OPS 0.709 0.766 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.327 0.310
ERA 4.45 4.74 4.17
FIP 4.55 4.61 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.39 1.30
K/9 8.11 7.59 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.440 0.513 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.64 5.66 4.24
BP FIP 4.82 5.02 4.10
BP WHIP 1.44 1.55
BP K/9 8.52 8.45
BP Quality* 55.0 61.5 46.4
BP IP 431.0 415.3
Bullpen Edge: CIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ron Marinaccio (38 pitches yesterday)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Max Kranick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yovanny Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Spencer Steer, Blake Dunn, Jose Trevino
Spencer Steer First Base OPS: 0.740 (340 AB)
Blake Dunn Outfielder OPS: 0.722 (142 AB)
Jose Trevino Catcher OPS: 0.657 (91 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.3% of full strength
WSH (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: James Wood, Joey Wiemer, Andrés Chaparro, Brady House
James Wood Outfielder OPS: 0.928 (437 AB)
Joey Wiemer Outfielder OPS: 0.912 (70 AB)
Andrés Chaparro First Base OPS: 0.835 (96 AB)
Brady House Third Base OPS: 0.679 (201 AB)
Run Adjustment: 86.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0214 (Temp: 1.0322 | Wind: 0.9895)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 4.3 - WSH 5.5
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.3 - WSH 5.5
Win Probability: CIN 38.7% - WSH 61.3%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +158 / WSH -158
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.0: 49.9%
Under 9.0: 41.5%
CIN -1.5: 25.2%
WSH +1.5: 74.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 2.1 - WSH 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.1 - WSH 3.0
F5 Win Prob: CIN 35.8% - WSH 64.2% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +179 / WSH -179
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML -103 +158 -12.0%
WSH ML -105 -158 +10.1%
CIN -1.5 +144 +296 -15.8%
WSH +1.5 -175 -296 +11.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -2.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -10.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -175 | Edge: 11.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01028
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | August 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: J.T. Ginn Home: Erik Miller
ERA: 3.51 ERA: 2.57
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 8.19 K/9: 12.6
BB/9: 3.98 BB/9: 5.91
FIP: 4.07 FIP: 3.01
IP: 115.3 IP: 35.0
xERA: 3.95 xERA: 3.23
xwOBA: 0.308 xwOBA: 0.28
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Erik Miller)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH BOS Lg Avg
Record 46-71 64-52
R/Game 4.32 4.48 4.49
RA/Game 5.74 3.75 4.48
OPS 0.716 0.724 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.311 0.310
ERA 5.45 3.51 4.17
FIP 4.80 3.58 4.04
WHIP 1.50 1.22 1.30
K/9 8.72 8.72 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.374 0.581 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.84 3.40 4.24
BP FIP 4.78 3.58 4.10
BP WHIP 1.60 1.24
BP K/9 9.17 8.99
BP Quality* 61.3 44.7 46.4
BP IP 459.3 370.3
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Seth Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Raymond Burgos (B2B, 34 pitches)
TIRED: Justin Slaten (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Donovan Walton, Zack Gelof, Carlos Cortes
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer Third Base OPS: 1.018 (60 AB)
Nick Kurtz First Base OPS: 0.879 (352 AB)
Shea Langeliers Catcher OPS: 0.829 (376 AB)
Donovan Walton Second Base OPS: 0.817 (123 AB)
Zack Gelof Third Base OPS: 0.803 (227 AB)
Carlos Cortes Outfielder OPS: 0.747 (231 AB)
Run Adjustment: 80.0% of full strength
BOS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Curtis Mead, Masataka Yoshida, Caleb Durbin
Curtis Mead Second Base OPS: 0.851 (285 AB)
Masataka Yoshida Designated Hitter OPS: 0.747 (242 AB)
Caleb Durbin Third Base OPS: 0.728 (366 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9912 (Temp: 1.0282 | Wind: 0.9640)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 2.9 - BOS 4.8
Simulated Avg: ATH 2.9 - BOS 4.8
Win Probability: ATH 29.6% - BOS 70.4%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +238 / BOS -238
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 9.5: 30.1%
Under 9.5: 69.8%
ATH +1.5: 47.3%
BOS -1.5: 52.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 1.4 - BOS 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 1.4 - BOS 2.3
F5 Win Prob: ATH 32.9% - BOS 67.1% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +204 / BOS -204
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +211 +238 -2.6%
BOS ML -228 -238 +0.9%
ATH +1.5 -102 +111 -3.2%
BOS -1.5 -118 -111 -1.4%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -22.2%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +17.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 9.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 17.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01029
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | August 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sean Manaea Home: Jared Jones
ERA: 4.33 ERA: 4.02
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 8.75 K/9: 9.96
BB/9: 3.23 BB/9: 2.57
FIP: 3.96 FIP: 3.83
IP: 97.7 IP: 56.0
xERA: 4.63 xERA: 3.32
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.284
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM PIT Lg Avg
Record 51-67 58-61
R/Game 4.14 5.05 4.49
RA/Game 4.58 4.79 4.48
OPS 0.689 0.748 0.719
wOBA 0.298 0.325 0.310
ERA 4.13 4.29 4.17
FIP 3.84 3.74 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.32 1.30
K/9 9.09 9.34 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.453 0.524 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.51 3.98 4.24
BP FIP 4.28 3.82 4.10
BP WHIP 1.42 1.34
BP K/9 9.11 9.50
BP Quality* 50.1 47.1 46.4
BP IP 211.3 433.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Xzavion Curry (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Lake Bachar (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0025 (Temp: 1.0159 | Wind: 0.9868)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 3.7 - PIT 5.3
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.8 - PIT 5.3
Win Probability: NYM 35.2% - PIT 64.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +184 / PIT -184
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.0: 52.1%
Under 8.0: 39.1%
NYM +1.5: 51.0%
PIT -1.5: 49.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.0 - PIT 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.0 - PIT 2.9
F5 Win Prob: NYM 35.7% - PIT 64.3% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +180 / PIT -180
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +131 +184 -8.1%
PIT ML -140 -184 +6.5%
NYM +1.5 -175 -104 -12.6%
PIT -1.5 +144 +104 +8.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -0.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -13.3%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (Run Line) [+144]
Model: 49.0% | Market: 41.0% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: +104 | Kelly: 3.39%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01030
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | August 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane Bieber Home: Jesús Luzardo
ERA: 5.11 ERA: 3.36
WHIP: 1.68 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 6.81 K/9: 10.8
BB/9: 4.86 BB/9: 2.83
FIP: 5.67 FIP: 2.79
IP: 37.0 IP: 136.7
xERA: 7.43 xERA: 2.95
xwOBA: 0.404 xwOBA: 0.268
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR PHI Lg Avg
Record 56-62 62-56
R/Game 3.92 4.42 4.49
RA/Game 4.42 4.42 4.48
OPS 0.681 0.708 0.719
wOBA 0.294 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.01 4.20 4.17
FIP 3.86 3.70 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.91 9.93 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.446 0.499 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.44 4.25 4.24
BP FIP 3.80 3.57 4.10
BP WHIP 1.35 1.33
BP K/9 7.74 10.16
BP Quality* 51.7 52.4 46.4
BP IP 217.3 414.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Lazaro Estrada (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Waldron (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brendon Little (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Chase Shugart (B2B, 39 pitches)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Derek Hill
Derek Hill Outfielder OPS: 0.731 (151 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 93°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (93°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0226 (Temp: 1.0315 | Wind: 0.9914)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.6 - PHI 6.2
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.6 - PHI 6.1
Win Probability: TOR 27.4% - PHI 72.6%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +265 / PHI -265
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.5: 57.4%
Under 8.5: 42.6%
TOR +1.5: 41.8%
PHI -1.5: 58.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 1.6 - PHI 3.8
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.6 - PHI 3.8
F5 Win Prob: TOR 20.2% - PHI 79.8% (Tie: 12.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +396 / PHI -396
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +189 +265 -7.2%
PHI ML -204 -265 +5.5%
TOR +1.5 -120 +139 -12.8%
PHI -1.5 -101 -139 +8.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +5.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -9.8%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (Run Line) [-101]
Model: 58.2% | Market: 50.2% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: -139 | Kelly: 4.02%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01031
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | August 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Grant Holmes Home: Cam Schlittler
ERA: 3.67 ERA: 2.26
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 0.95
K/9: 7.67 K/9: 11.02
BB/9: 3.83 BB/9: 2.0
FIP: 4.84 FIP: 2.53
IP: 108.0 IP: 139.7
xERA: 4.7 xERA: 2.95
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.268
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL NYY Lg Avg
Record 70-47 66-51
R/Game 4.91 4.53 4.49
RA/Game 3.89 3.82 4.48
OPS 0.735 0.722 0.719
wOBA 0.316 0.310 0.310
ERA 3.63 3.33 4.17
FIP 3.98 3.55 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.18 1.30
K/9 8.73 9.05 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.605 0.577 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.57 3.10 4.24
BP FIP 3.64 3.82 4.10
BP WHIP 1.20 1.21
BP K/9 9.13 8.42
BP Quality* 46.7 44.7 46.4
BP IP 362.7 380.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Danny Young (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: David Bednar (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton, Amed Rosario
Aaron Judge Outfielder OPS: 0.908 (214 AB)
Cody Bellinger Outfielder OPS: 0.770 (374 AB)
Paul Goldschmidt First Base OPS: 0.758 (300 AB)
Giancarlo Stanton Designated Hitter OPS: 0.724 (90 AB)
Amed Rosario Third Base OPS: 0.708 (182 AB)
Run Adjustment: 87.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0071 (Temp: 1.0292 | Wind: 0.9785)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 3.7 - NYY 4.3
Simulated Avg: ATL 3.7 - NYY 4.3
Win Probability: ATL 43.6% - NYY 56.4%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +129 / NYY -129
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.5: 42.0%
Under 8.5: 58.0%
ATL +1.5: 61.3%
NYY -1.5: 38.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 1.7 - NYY 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 1.7 - NYY 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ATL 36.8% - NYY 63.2% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +172 / NYY -172
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML +126 +129 -0.6%
NYY ML -136 -129 -1.2%
ATL +1.5 -171 -159 -1.7%
NYY -1.5 +141 +159 -2.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -10.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +5.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | August 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Grayson Rodriguez Home: Ryan Gusto
ERA: 7.24 ERA: 4.8
WHIP: 1.59 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 7.41 K/9: 7.8
BB/9: 3.88 BB/9: 2.6
FIP: 5.04 FIP: 3.68
IP: 51.0 IP: 45.0
xERA: 7.2 xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: 0.399 xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Ryan Gusto)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA MIA Lg Avg
Record 45-72 59-59
R/Game 4.11 4.34 4.49
RA/Game 4.81 4.29 4.48
OPS 0.690 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.300 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.48 3.97 4.17
FIP 4.13 3.83 4.04
WHIP 1.37 1.25 1.30
K/9 9.11 8.57 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.428 0.505 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.61 4.44 4.24
BP FIP 4.42 3.79 4.10
BP WHIP 1.41 1.31
BP K/9 9.33 9.11
BP Quality* 52.6 48.4 46.4
BP IP 226.7 377.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brett Kerry (98 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John King (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Vaughn Grissom, Jorge Soler
Vaughn Grissom Second Base OPS: 0.700 (261 AB)
Jorge Soler Designated Hitter OPS: 0.664 (316 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.5% of full strength
MIA (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Esteury Ruiz, Joe Mack
Esteury Ruiz Outfielder OPS: 0.858 (126 AB)
Joe Mack Catcher OPS: 0.709 (207 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0006 (Temp: 1.0201 | Wind: 0.9809)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 3.8 - MIA 5.3
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.7 - MIA 5.3
Win Probability: LAA 34.8% - MIA 65.2%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +187 / MIA -187
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.5: 51.9%
Under 8.5: 48.1%
LAA +1.5: 50.9%
MIA -1.5: 49.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 2.1 - MIA 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.1 - MIA 3.3
F5 Win Prob: LAA 32.0% - MIA 68.0% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +212 / MIA -212
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +132 +187 -8.3%
MIA ML -142 -187 +6.5%
LAA +1.5 -170 -104 -12.0%
MIA -1.5 +140 +104 +7.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -0.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Miami Marlins -1.5 (Run Line) [+140]
Model: 49.1% | Market: 41.7% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: +104 | Kelly: 3.17%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01032
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | August 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Matthew Boyd Home: Randy Dobnak
ERA: 3.59 ERA: 1.16
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 7.8 K/9: 4.35
BB/9: 2.48 BB/9: 3.77
FIP: 3.62 FIP: 4.23
IP: 72.7 IP: 31.0
xERA: 4.57 xERA: 4.86
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.338
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Matthew Boyd)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC KC Lg Avg
Record 68-50 49-69
R/Game 5.12 4.15 4.49
RA/Game 4.28 5.02 4.48
OPS 0.752 0.711 0.719
wOBA 0.325 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.07 4.79 4.17
FIP 4.53 4.58 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.42 1.30
K/9 7.73 7.59 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.581 0.414 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.37 5.72 4.24
BP FIP 4.52 5.28 4.10
BP WHIP 1.35 1.60
BP K/9 8.45 7.61
BP Quality* 53.2 62.0 46.4
BP IP 481.7 450.3
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Colin Rea (63 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Nate Pearson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jose Cuas (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Carter Jensen, Isaac Collins, Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino
Carter Jensen Catcher OPS: 0.722 (387 AB)
Isaac Collins Outfielder OPS: 0.705 (335 AB)
Maikel Garcia Third Base OPS: 0.693 (268 AB)
Vinnie Pasquantino First Base OPS: 0.663 (293 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 99°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (99°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9958 (Temp: 1.0399 | Wind: 0.9576)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 5.3 - KC 4.0
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.3 - KC 4.0
Win Probability: CHC 61.3% - KC 38.8%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -158 / KC +158
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 10.5: 37.5%
Under 10.5: 62.5%
CHC -1.5: 45.7%
KC +1.5: 54.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.5 - KC 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.5 - KC 2.0
F5 Win Prob: CHC 57.5% - KC 42.5% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -135 / KC +135
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -152 -158 +0.9%
KC ML +142 +158 -2.6%
CHC -1.5 +101 +119 -4.1%
KC +1.5 -121 -119 -0.4%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -14.9%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +10.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 10.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01033
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | August 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Joey Cantillo Home: Davis Martin
ERA: 3.87 ERA: 4.13
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 9.78 K/9: 7.89
BB/9: 4.25 BB/9: 2.73
FIP: 3.98 FIP: 3.32
IP: 118.7 IP: 122.0
xERA: 3.98 xERA: 4.6
xwOBA: 0.309 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Davis Martin)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE CWS Lg Avg
Record 58-60 60-56
R/Game 3.98 4.76 4.49
RA/Game 4.19 4.46 4.48
OPS 0.683 0.720 0.719
wOBA 0.297 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.83 4.12 4.17
FIP 3.79 4.02 4.04
WHIP 1.27 1.31 1.30
K/9 9.42 8.52 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.476 0.530 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.85 4.09 4.24
BP FIP 3.65 4.23 4.10
BP WHIP 1.33 1.33
BP K/9 9.91 8.03
BP Quality* 47.1 54.2 46.4
BP IP 395.0 297.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Jordan Hicks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erick Fedde (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Chase Meidroth, Andrew Benintendi, Tristan Peters
Chase Meidroth Second Base OPS: 0.754 (416 AB)
Andrew Benintendi Designated Hitter OPS: 0.741 (315 AB)
Tristan Peters Outfielder OPS: 0.740 (310 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9955 (Temp: 1.0198 | Wind: 0.9761)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.0 - CWS 4.4
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.0 - CWS 4.4
Win Probability: CLE 45.7% - CWS 54.3%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +119 / CWS -119
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.5: 46.9%
Under 8.5: 53.1%
CLE -1.5: 29.9%
CWS +1.5: 70.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.1 - CWS 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.0 - CWS 2.4
F5 Win Prob: CLE 44.7% - CWS 55.3% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +124 / CWS -124
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML -119 +119 -8.7%
CWS ML +111 -119 +6.9%
CLE -1.5 +135 +235 -12.7%
CWS +1.5 -163 -235 +8.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -5.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +0.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Chicago White Sox +1.5 (Run Line) [-163]
Model: 70.1% | Market: 62.0% | Edge: 8.2%
Fair ML: -235 | Kelly: 5.36%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01034
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | August 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Connor Prielipp Home: Jacob Misiorowski
ERA: 4.75 ERA: 1.63
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 0.73
K/9: 9.39 K/9: 13.82
BB/9: 3.48 BB/9: 2.06
FIP: 3.68 FIP: 1.84
IP: 77.7 IP: 127.0
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 1.91
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.215
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN MIL Lg Avg
Record 58-60 73-44
R/Game 4.66 4.97 4.49
RA/Game 4.95 3.77 4.48
OPS 0.724 0.733 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.60 3.48 4.17
FIP 4.15 3.41 4.04
WHIP 1.38 1.16 1.30
K/9 8.38 9.82 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.624 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.52 3.57 4.24
BP FIP 3.98 3.53 4.10
BP WHIP 1.43 1.29
BP K/9 8.65 8.95
BP Quality* 55.0 44.1 46.4
BP IP 521.3 405.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Jeff Hoffman (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ryan Jeffers, Byron Buxton, Alex Jackson
Ryan Jeffers Catcher OPS: 0.880 (193 AB)
Byron Buxton Outfielder OPS: 0.864 (331 AB)
Alex Jackson Catcher OPS: 0.742 (66 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.1% of full strength
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 2.8 - MIL 5.3
Simulated Avg: MIN 2.8 - MIL 5.3
Win Probability: MIN 24.6% - MIL 75.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +307 / MIL -307
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.0: 53.0%
Under 7.0: 37.2%
MIN +1.5: 40.4%
MIL -1.5: 59.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 1.1 - MIL 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 1.1 - MIL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: MIN 21.3% - MIL 78.6% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +368 / MIL -368
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +234 +307 -5.4%
MIL ML -254 -307 +3.7%
MIN +1.5 -102 +147 -10.0%
MIL -1.5 -118 -147 +5.4%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +0.6%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -15.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | August 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael Lorenzen Home: Michael McGreevy
ERA: 6.94 ERA: 3.59
WHIP: 1.85 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 6.69 K/9: 6.06
BB/9: 3.59 BB/9: 2.24
FIP: 4.86 FIP: 4.23
IP: 107.7 IP: 120.3
xERA: 5.84 xERA: 5.62
xwOBA: 0.366 xwOBA: 0.36
Pitcher Edge: STL (Michael McGreevy)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL STL Lg Avg
Record 46-71 58-59
R/Game 4.82 4.34 4.49
RA/Game 5.74 4.44 4.48
OPS 0.746 0.694 0.719
wOBA 0.320 0.301 0.310
ERA 5.48 4.14 4.17
FIP 4.69 3.96 4.04
WHIP 1.51 1.34 1.30
K/9 7.10 7.71 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.421 0.490 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.19 4.23 4.24
BP FIP 4.47 4.05 4.10
BP WHIP 1.54 1.36
BP K/9 7.52 7.91
BP Quality* 56.0 49.5 46.4
BP IP 305.3 442.3
Bullpen Edge: STL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Peter Strzelecki (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Troy Johnston, Sterlin Thompson
Troy Johnston Outfielder OPS: 0.731 (319 AB)
Sterlin Thompson Outfielder OPS: 0.689 (69 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.0% of full strength
STL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Nelson Velázquez, Everson Pereira, Blaze Jordan
Nelson Velázquez Outfielder OPS: 0.721 (74 AB)
Everson Pereira Outfielder OPS: 0.720 (82 AB)
Blaze Jordan Third Base OPS: 0.651 (137 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9866 (Temp: 1.0276 | Wind: 0.9601)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.8 - STL 5.4
Simulated Avg: COL 4.8 - STL 5.4
Win Probability: COL 44.8% - STL 55.2%
Fair Moneyline: COL +123 / STL -123
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 9.0: 53.2%
Under 9.0: 38.3%
COL +1.5: 59.8%
STL -1.5: 40.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.7 - STL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.8 - STL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: COL 44.5% - STL 55.5% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +125 / STL -125
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +147 +123 +4.3%
STL ML -158 -123 -6.0%
COL +1.5 -143 -149 +0.9%
STL -1.5 +119 +149 -5.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +0.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -14.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | August 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cade Povich Home: Kumar Rocker
ERA: 3.91 ERA: 4.08
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 6.75 K/9: 8.17
BB/9: 2.84 BB/9: 3.33
FIP: 4.6 FIP: 4.08
IP: 25.3 IP: 108.0
xERA: 4.7 xERA: 4.45
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Kumar Rocker)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL TEX Lg Avg
Record 56-61 59-58
R/Game 4.43 4.14 4.49
RA/Game 4.75 4.38 4.48
OPS 0.709 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.19 4.23 4.17
FIP 4.01 3.99 4.04
WHIP 1.33 1.28 1.30
K/9 8.04 8.61 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.474 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.43 4.35 4.24
BP FIP 4.04 4.19 4.10
BP WHIP 1.34 1.37
BP K/9 8.66 8.05
BP Quality* 46.7 47.4 46.4
BP IP 383.7 380.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0140 (Temp: 1.0376 | Wind: 0.9772)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 4.7 - TEX 4.5
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.7 - TEX 4.5
Win Probability: BAL 52.1% - TEX 47.9%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -109 / TEX +109
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.0: 53.6%
Under 8.0: 37.5%
BAL +1.5: 67.8%
TEX -1.5: 32.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 2.6 - TEX 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.6 - TEX 2.5
F5 Win Prob: BAL 52.8% - TEX 47.2% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -112 / TEX +112
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML +116 -109 +5.8%
TEX ML -124 +109 -7.5%
BAL +1.5 -191 -210 +2.1%
TEX -1.5 +157 +210 -6.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +1.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -14.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | August 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Troy Melton Home: Logan Webb
ERA: 1.58 ERA: 3.74
WHIP: 0.91 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 7.78 K/9: 7.27
BB/9: 2.8 BB/9: 2.23
FIP: 3.71 FIP: 3.16
IP: 74.0 IP: 125.0
xERA: 3.11 xERA: 3.81
xwOBA: 0.275 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: SF (Logan Webb)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET SF Lg Avg
Record 57-60 49-68
R/Game 4.58 4.14 4.49
RA/Game 3.85 4.66 4.48
OPS 0.732 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.316 0.306 0.310
ERA 3.52 4.40 4.17
FIP 3.67 4.07 4.04
WHIP 1.20 1.37 1.30
K/9 8.43 7.74 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.578 0.446 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.18 4.84 4.24
BP FIP 4.26 4.45 4.10
BP WHIP 1.35 1.52
BP K/9 8.26 6.84
BP Quality* 47.1 54.9 46.4
BP IP 306.0 297.3
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Carson Seymour (46 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Keaton Winn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9717 (Temp: 1.0009 | Wind: 0.9708)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 4.1 - SF 3.3
Simulated Avg: DET 4.1 - SF 3.2
Win Probability: DET 59.2% - SF 40.8%
Fair Moneyline: DET -145 / SF +145
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 7.5: 45.4%
Under 7.5: 54.6%
DET -1.5: 40.7%
SF +1.5: 59.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 2.0 - SF 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.0 - SF 1.5
F5 Win Prob: DET 59.9% - SF 40.1% (Tie: 20.6%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -150 / SF +150
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -119 -145 +4.9%
SF ML +111 +145 -6.6%
DET -1.5 +139 +146 -1.1%
SF +1.5 -168 -146 -3.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -7.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +2.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | August 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Justin Wrobleski Home: Eduardo Rodriguez
ERA: 3.31 ERA: 2.71
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 7.0 K/9: 6.07
BB/9: 1.85 BB/9: 2.97
FIP: 3.94 FIP: 3.98
IP: 117.0 IP: 136.3
xERA: 4.51 xERA: 4.86
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.338
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD ARI Lg Avg
Record 70-47 62-56
R/Game 5.03 4.52 4.49
RA/Game 3.84 4.49 4.48
OPS 0.768 0.709 0.719
wOBA 0.328 0.305 0.310
ERA 3.72 4.17 4.17
FIP 3.89 4.27 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.29 1.30
K/9 9.09 6.84 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.622 0.503 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.24 3.80 4.24
BP FIP 3.93 3.71 4.10
BP WHIP 1.30 1.20
BP K/9 9.85 7.68
BP Quality* 48.0 46.6 46.4
BP IP 348.0 376.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Edwin Díaz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 4.8 - ARI 4.6
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.9 - ARI 4.6
Win Probability: LAD 52.3% - ARI 47.7%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -110 / ARI +110
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 9.0: 46.7%
Under 9.0: 44.6%
LAD -1.5: 37.1%
ARI +1.5: 62.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 2.7 - ARI 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.7 - ARI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: LAD 53.3% - ARI 46.7% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -114 / ARI +114
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -141 -110 -6.2%
ARI ML +131 +110 +4.4%
LAD -1.5 +112 +169 -10.0%
ARI +1.5 -135 -169 +5.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -5.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -7.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | August 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ian Seymour Home: Emerson Hancock
ERA: 4.27 ERA: 3.33
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 10.57 K/9: 8.36
BB/9: 2.99 BB/9: 2.24
FIP: 3.75 FIP: 3.67
IP: 84.3 IP: 116.3
xERA: 3.47 xERA: 4.09
xwOBA: 0.29 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB SEA Lg Avg
Record 70-46 56-62
R/Game 4.44 3.91 4.49
RA/Game 4.07 4.04 4.48
OPS 0.730 0.684 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.298 0.310
ERA 3.70 3.78 4.17
FIP 3.95 3.63 4.04
WHIP 1.15 1.20 1.30
K/9 8.25 8.69 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.540 0.484 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.73 3.54 4.24
BP FIP 4.09 3.82 4.10
BP WHIP 1.17 1.31
BP K/9 8.62 9.12
BP Quality* 47.5 46.8 46.4
BP IP 407.3 345.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Rucker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Simpson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0126 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0126)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 3.9 - SEA 3.6
Simulated Avg: TB 3.9 - SEA 3.6
Win Probability: TB 52.7% - SEA 47.3%
Fair Moneyline: TB -111 / SEA +111
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 7.0: 47.3%
Under 7.0: 42.5%
TB -1.5: 35.0%
SEA +1.5: 65.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.1 - SEA 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.1 - SEA 1.9
F5 Win Prob: TB 53.5% - SEA 46.5% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -115 / SEA +115
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -104 -111 +1.7%
SEA ML -104 +111 -3.7%
TB -1.5 +159 +186 -3.6%
SEA +1.5 -193 -186 -0.9%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -5.1%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -9.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | August 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cristian Javier Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU SD Lg Avg
Record 60-58 61-57
R/Game 4.64 4.21 4.49
RA/Game 4.84 4.34 4.48
OPS 0.739 0.695 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.300 0.310
ERA 4.57 4.18 4.17
FIP 4.49 4.09 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.33 1.30
K/9 8.88 8.27 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.481 0.486 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.18 2.92 4.24
BP FIP 4.35 2.99 4.10
BP WHIP 1.30 1.15
BP K/9 9.02 10.89
BP Quality* 46.8 39.3 46.4
BP IP 422.0 249.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeremiah Estrada (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9873 (Temp: 1.0051 | Wind: 0.9823)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.0 - SD 4.8
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.0 - SD 4.8
Win Probability: HOU 42.5% - SD 57.5%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +135 / SD -135
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 9.0: 40.6%
Under 9.0: 50.4%
HOU +1.5: 58.8%
SD -1.5: 41.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.4 - SD 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.4 - SD 2.9
F5 Win Prob: HOU 43.1% - SD 56.9% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +132 / SD -132
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +111 +135 -4.9%
SD ML -119 -135 +3.1%
HOU +1.5 -193 -143 -7.1%
SD -1.5 +158 +143 +2.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -11.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -2.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================