2026-08-10
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-10
Games: 10 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | August 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sonny Gray Home: Jameson Taillon
ERA: 2.78 ERA: 5.96
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 7.97 K/9: 8.1
BB/9: 2.41 BB/9: 3.26
FIP: 3.43 FIP: 6.61
IP: 119.7 IP: 80.0
xERA: 3.7 xERA: 6.07
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.371
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Sonny Gray)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS TOR Lg Avg
Record 64-53 56-63
R/Game 4.47 3.94 4.49
RA/Game 3.75 4.44 4.49
OPS 0.722 0.679 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.293 0.310
ERA 3.50 4.02 4.17
FIP 3.56 3.89 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.32 1.30
K/9 8.74 8.90 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.579 0.446 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.22 3.44 4.22
BP FIP 3.40 3.83 4.09
BP WHIP 1.24 1.37
BP K/9 9.40 7.78
BP Quality* 41.7 55.0 46.3
BP IP 318.7 219.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brayan Bello (51 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Raymond Burgos (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +12.0)
UNAVAIL: Lazaro Estrada (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brendon Little (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Spencer Miles (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Waldron (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 6.0 - TOR 3.4
Simulated Avg: BOS 6.0 - TOR 3.4
Win Probability: BOS 73.6% - TOR 26.5%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -278 / TOR +278
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.5: 54.8%
Under 8.5: 45.2%
BOS -1.5: 59.1%
TOR +1.5: 40.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 3.7 - TOR 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 3.7 - TOR 1.8
F5 Win Prob: BOS 77.1% - TOR 22.9% (Tie: 13.2%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -336 / TOR +336
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML -148 -278 +13.9%
TOR ML +138 +278 -15.6%
BOS -1.5 +114 -144 +12.4%
TOR +1.5 -137 +144 -16.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +2.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -7.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Boston Red Sox (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -148 | Edge: 13.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01035
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | August 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Christian Scott Home: Bryce Elder
ERA: 3.15 ERA: 3.69
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 11.14 K/9: 7.39
BB/9: 3.87 BB/9: 2.98
FIP: 3.14 FIP: 4.4
IP: 74.3 IP: 126.7
xERA: 3.78 xERA: 3.92
xwOBA: 0.301 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Christian Scott)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM ATL Lg Avg
Record 52-67 71-47
R/Game 4.19 4.88 4.49
RA/Game 4.55 3.86 4.49
OPS 0.693 0.732 0.719
wOBA 0.300 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.11 3.60 4.17
FIP 3.82 3.97 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.12 8.73 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.462 0.605 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 3.56 4.22
BP FIP 4.25 3.64 4.09
BP WHIP 1.41 1.19
BP K/9 9.11 9.20
BP Quality* 48.3 46.6 46.3
BP IP 213.3 366.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 4.1 - ATL 4.6
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.1 - ATL 4.6
Win Probability: NYM 44.9% - ATL 55.1%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +123 / ATL -123
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.5: 48.8%
Under 8.5: 51.2%
NYM +1.5: 61.7%
ATL -1.5: 38.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.3 - ATL 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.3 - ATL 2.3
F5 Win Prob: NYM 50.3% - ATL 49.7% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -101 / ATL +101
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +131 +123 +1.6%
ATL ML -141 -123 -3.4%
NYM +1.5 -168 -161 -1.0%
ATL -1.5 +139 +161 -3.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -3.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -1.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | August 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trevor Rogers Home: Dean Kremer
ERA: 4.2 ERA: 5.93
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 7.63 K/9: 8.78
BB/9: 2.49 BB/9: 2.85
FIP: 3.47 FIP: 5.9
IP: 115.7 IP: 41.0
xERA: 3.76 xERA: 4.57
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Trevor Rogers)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL MIN Lg Avg
Record 57-61 58-61
R/Game 4.47 4.65 4.49
RA/Game 4.75 4.94 4.49
OPS 0.714 0.722 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.19 4.59 4.17
FIP 4.01 4.16 4.04
WHIP 1.33 1.38 1.30
K/9 8.03 8.40 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.472 0.472 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.41 4.49 4.22
BP FIP 4.02 3.98 4.09
BP WHIP 1.33 1.43
BP K/9 8.62 8.65
BP Quality* 49.4 56.4 46.3
BP IP 389.7 525.7
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Albert Suárez (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Yaramil Hiraldo (32 pitches yesterday)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0447 (Temp: 1.0219 | Wind: 1.0223)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 5.9 - MIN 4.8
Simulated Avg: BAL 5.8 - MIN 4.8
Win Probability: BAL 58.7% - MIN 41.3%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -142 / MIN +142
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 8.5: 64.9%
Under 8.5: 35.1%
BAL -1.5: 44.6%
MIN +1.5: 55.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 3.4 - MIN 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 3.4 - MIN 2.5
F5 Win Prob: BAL 63.0% - MIN 37.0% (Tie: 13.9%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -171 / MIN +171
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML -112 -142 +5.8%
MIN ML +104 +142 -7.7%
BAL -1.5 +141 +124 +3.1%
MIN +1.5 -171 -124 -7.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +12.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -17.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01036
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | August 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andrew Painter Home: Hunter Dobbins
ERA: 6.48 ERA: 3.6
WHIP: 1.57 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 7.56 K/9: 8.1
BB/9: 3.36 BB/9: 3.15
FIP: 5.14 FIP: 4.3
IP: 75.0 IP: 40.0
xERA: 5.15 xERA: 3.7
xwOBA: 0.346 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: STL (Hunter Dobbins)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI STL Lg Avg
Record 63-56 59-59
R/Game 4.44 4.36 4.49
RA/Game 4.44 4.43 4.49
OPS 0.709 0.696 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.19 4.14 4.17
FIP 3.67 3.98 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.34 1.30
K/9 9.95 7.69 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.500 0.493 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.28 4.22 4.22
BP FIP 3.57 4.07 4.09
BP WHIP 1.34 1.36
BP K/9 10.08 7.88
BP Quality* 54.1 49.6 46.3
BP IP 418.7 445.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
UNAVAIL: Orion Kerkering (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Kilian (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Shugart (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9985 (Temp: 1.0300 | Wind: 0.9694)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 4.3 - STL 5.5
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.3 - STL 5.5
Win Probability: PHI 38.3% - STL 61.7%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +161 / STL -161
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.0: 49.1%
Under 9.0: 42.1%
PHI -1.5: 24.7%
STL +1.5: 75.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.3 - STL 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.3 - STL 3.2
F5 Win Prob: PHI 36.7% - STL 63.3% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +172 / STL -172
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -115 +161 -15.1%
STL ML +107 -161 +13.4%
PHI -1.5 +135 +305 -17.9%
STL +1.5 -163 -305 +13.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -3.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -10.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -163 | Edge: 13.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01037
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | August 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: MacKenzie Gore Home: Reid Detmers
ERA: 4.55 ERA: 4.12
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 9.79 K/9: 10.47
BB/9: 3.29 BB/9: 2.72
FIP: 3.64 FIP: 3.39
IP: 128.7 IP: 129.0
xERA: 3.84 xERA: 3.52
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX LAA Lg Avg
Record 59-59 45-73
R/Game 4.14 4.10 4.49
RA/Game 4.42 4.87 4.49
OPS 0.717 0.690 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.28 4.53 4.17
FIP 4.03 4.14 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.38 1.30
K/9 8.62 9.14 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.422 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.38 4.75 4.22
BP FIP 4.25 4.48 4.09
BP WHIP 1.38 1.41
BP K/9 8.04 8.86
BP Quality* 50.9 53.3 46.3
BP IP 386.3 286.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jordan Montgomery (79 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Cole Winn (42 pitches yesterday)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Shaun Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Blake Weiman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9881 (Temp: 1.0045 | Wind: 0.9837)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 4.0 - LAA 4.2
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.0 - LAA 4.2
Win Probability: TEX 47.6% - LAA 52.4%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +110 / LAA -110
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.0: 44.2%
Under 8.0: 46.2%
TEX -1.5: 31.1%
LAA +1.5: 68.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 2.0 - LAA 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.0 - LAA 2.2
F5 Win Prob: TEX 46.4% - LAA 53.6% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +116 / LAA -116
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML -111 +110 -5.0%
LAA ML +103 -110 +3.2%
TEX -1.5 +144 +222 -9.9%
LAA +1.5 -175 -222 +5.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -8.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -6.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | August 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Gabriel Hughes Home: Michael Soroka
ERA: 4.25 ERA: 3.07
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 8.49 K/9: 8.67
BB/9: 2.73 BB/9: 1.87
FIP: 2.56 FIP: 2.75
IP: 29.7 IP: 82.0
xERA: 2.42 xERA: 4.0
xwOBA: 0.242 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL ARI Lg Avg
Record 46-72 63-56
R/Game 4.81 4.51 4.49
RA/Game 5.75 4.47 4.49
OPS 0.746 0.708 0.719
wOBA 0.320 0.304 0.310
ERA 5.48 4.15 4.17
FIP 4.69 4.24 4.04
WHIP 1.52 1.29 1.30
K/9 7.08 6.88 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.420 0.504 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.21 3.78 4.22
BP FIP 4.47 3.69 4.09
BP WHIP 1.54 1.19
BP K/9 7.51 7.68
BP Quality* 59.1 46.3 46.3
BP IP 305.7 378.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Parker Mushinski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Gordon (48 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.2 - ARI 5.7
Simulated Avg: COL 4.2 - ARI 5.7
Win Probability: COL 35.8% - ARI 64.2%
Fair Moneyline: COL +179 / ARI -179
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 9.0: 50.4%
Under 9.0: 41.1%
COL +1.5: 50.8%
ARI -1.5: 49.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.1 - ARI 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.1 - ARI 3.1
F5 Win Prob: COL 35.0% - ARI 65.0% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +185 / ARI -185
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +180 +179 +0.1%
ARI ML -194 -179 -1.8%
COL +1.5 -122 -103 -4.1%
ARI -1.5 +101 +103 -0.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -2.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -11.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics
Regular Season | August 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Freddy Peralta Home: Jacob Lopez
ERA: 5.37 ERA: 5.64
WHIP: 1.52 WHIP: 1.63
K/9: 8.9 K/9: 8.4
BB/9: 3.76 BB/9: 5.16
FIP: 4.48 FIP: 5.21
IP: 117.3 IP: 75.0
xERA: 3.95 xERA: 3.52
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: TB (Freddy Peralta)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB ATH Lg Avg
Record 71-46 47-71
R/Game 4.44 4.32 4.49
RA/Game 4.04 5.71 4.49
OPS 0.731 0.715 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.68 5.41 4.17
FIP 3.93 4.79 4.04
WHIP 1.14 1.50 1.30
K/9 8.26 8.68 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.542 0.375 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.72 5.80 4.22
BP FIP 4.08 4.76 4.09
BP WHIP 1.17 1.59
BP K/9 8.64 9.15
BP Quality* 50.5 61.0 46.3
BP IP 408.3 462.3
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Matz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Hogan Harris (B2B, 36 pitches)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9803 (Temp: 0.9897 | Wind: 0.9906)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 5.3 - ATH 4.8
Simulated Avg: TB 5.3 - ATH 4.8
Win Probability: TB 53.8% - ATH 46.2%
Fair Moneyline: TB -117 / ATH +117
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 10.0: 44.3%
Under 10.0: 47.4%
TB -1.5: 39.5%
ATH +1.5: 60.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.8 - ATH 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.8 - ATH 2.6
F5 Win Prob: TB 52.2% - ATH 47.8% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -109 / ATH +109
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -154 -117 -6.8%
ATH ML +143 +117 +5.0%
TB -1.5 -102 +153 -11.0%
ATH +1.5 -118 -153 +6.3%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -8.0%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -5.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | August 10, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Logan Henderson Home: Casey Mize
ERA: 2.7 ERA: 3.4
WHIP: 0.9 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 11.16 K/9: 8.6
BB/9: 1.8 BB/9: 2.2
FIP: 3.04 FIP: 2.79
IP: 50.0 IP: 90.0
xERA: 2.62 xERA: 3.34
xwOBA: 0.252 xwOBA: 0.284
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL SD Lg Avg
Record 74-44 62-57
R/Game 4.96 4.24 4.49
RA/Game 3.76 4.32 4.49
OPS 0.735 0.698 0.719
wOBA 0.316 0.302 0.310
ERA 3.47 4.16 4.17
FIP 3.42 4.09 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.32 1.30
K/9 9.86 8.24 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.624 0.491 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.54 2.91 4.22
BP FIP 3.52 2.98 4.09
BP WHIP 1.29 1.15
BP K/9 8.99 10.91
BP Quality* 48.4 36.2 46.3
BP IP 409.3 250.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: DEPLETED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Aaron Ashby (B2B, 27 pitches)
UNAVAIL: Abner Uribe (B2B, 33 pitches)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jeremiah Estrada (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9988 (Temp: 1.0012 | Wind: 0.9976)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 3.6 - SD 3.4
Simulated Avg: MIL 3.5 - SD 3.5
Win Probability: MIL 50.7% - SD 49.3%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -103 / SD +103
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 7.5: 41.8%
Under 7.5: 58.2%
MIL -1.5: 32.1%
SD +1.5: 67.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.0 - SD 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.0 - SD 1.5
F5 Win Prob: MIL 59.4% - SD 40.6% (Tie: 20.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -146 / SD +146
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -115 -103 -2.8%
SD ML +107 +103 +1.0%
MIL -1.5 +145 +211 -8.7%
SD +1.5 -176 -211 +4.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -10.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +5.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | August 10, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Hayden Wesneski Home: Blade Tidwell
ERA: 3.86 ERA: 3.18
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 6.17 K/9: 6.88
BB/9: 3.09 BB/9: 2.12
FIP: 2.76 FIP: 3.04
IP: 11.7 IP: 17.0
xERA: 5.65 xERA: 3.3
xwOBA: 0.36 xwOBA: 0.282
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU SF Lg Avg
Record 60-59 49-69
R/Game 4.62 4.11 4.49
RA/Game 4.86 4.64 4.49
OPS 0.736 0.716 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.59 4.37 4.17
FIP 4.52 4.05 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.86 7.73 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.477 0.444 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.21 4.84 4.22
BP FIP 4.39 4.42 4.09
BP WHIP 1.30 1.52
BP K/9 9.04 6.95
BP Quality* 50.1 56.3 46.3
BP IP 425.0 299.3
Bullpen Edge: HOU (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Keaton Winn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (60°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9603 (Temp: 0.9861 | Wind: 0.9739)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.3 - SF 4.0
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.3 - SF 4.0
Win Probability: HOU 52.9% - SF 47.0%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -113 / SF +113
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.5: 45.4%
Under 8.5: 54.6%
HOU -1.5: 36.3%
SF +1.5: 63.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.2 - SF 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.2 - SF 2.2
F5 Win Prob: HOU 50.3% - SF 49.7% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -101 / SF +101
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML -147 -113 -6.6%
SF ML +137 +113 +4.9%
HOU -1.5 +109 +176 -11.6%
SF +1.5 -131 -176 +7.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +2.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] San Francisco Giants +1.5 (Run Line) [-131]
Model: 63.7% | Market: 56.7% | Edge: 7.0%
Fair ML: -176 | Kelly: 4.04%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01038
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | August 10, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Noah Cameron Home: Tarik Skubal
ERA: 4.37 ERA: 2.81
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 0.92
K/9: 8.44 K/9: 10.69
BB/9: 2.91 BB/9: 1.4
FIP: 3.67 FIP: 2.58
IP: 123.7 IP: 102.7
xERA: 4.41 xERA: 2.99
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.269
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Tarik Skubal)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC LAD Lg Avg
Record 49-70 70-48
R/Game 4.13 5.01 4.49
RA/Game 5.06 3.84 4.49
OPS 0.710 0.766 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.327 0.310
ERA 4.84 3.72 4.17
FIP 4.58 3.90 4.04
WHIP 1.43 1.16 1.30
K/9 7.60 9.08 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.409 0.619 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.78 4.19 4.22
BP FIP 5.31 3.90 4.09
BP WHIP 1.60 1.28
BP K/9 7.65 9.83
BP Quality* 62.3 52.1 46.3
BP IP 454.3 352.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Easton McGee (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Lucas Erceg (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kyle Hurt (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Evan Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edwin Díaz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9944 (Temp: 0.9984 | Wind: 0.9960)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 3.3 - LAD 5.6
Simulated Avg: KC 3.3 - LAD 5.6
Win Probability: KC 28.6% - LAD 71.4%
Fair Moneyline: KC +250 / LAD -250
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 7.5: 59.9%
Under 7.5: 40.2%
KC +1.5: 44.2%
LAD -1.5: 55.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 1.5 - LAD 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 1.5 - LAD 2.7
F5 Win Prob: KC 28.2% - LAD 71.8% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +255 / LAD -255
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +241 +250 -0.7%
LAD ML -261 -250 -0.9%
KC +1.5 +102 +126 -5.3%
LAD -1.5 -122 -126 +0.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +7.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -12.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.5%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.92%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01039