2026-08-11
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-11
Games: 15 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | August 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tanner Bibee Home: Drew Anderson
ERA: 3.85 ERA: 4.01
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 7.17 K/9: 10.43
BB/9: 2.48 BB/9: 3.34
FIP: 4.5 FIP: 3.63
IP: 138.0 IP: 67.3
xERA: 4.42 xERA: 3.4
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.286
Pitcher Edge: DET (Drew Anderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE DET Lg Avg
Record 58-61 58-60
R/Game 3.97 4.57 4.49
RA/Game 4.20 3.83 4.49
OPS 0.682 0.729 0.719
wOBA 0.297 0.315 0.310
ERA 3.84 3.49 4.17
FIP 3.81 3.64 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.20 1.31
K/9 9.44 8.47 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.475 0.580 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.87 4.14 4.23
BP FIP 3.70 4.22 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.35
BP K/9 9.90 8.36
BP Quality* 47.5 48.3 46.3
BP IP 402.0 309.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 27%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9900 (Temp: 1.0126 | Wind: 0.9777)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 3.6 - DET 4.7
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.6 - DET 4.7
Win Probability: CLE 38.6% - DET 61.4%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +159 / DET -159
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.0: 45.2%
Under 8.0: 45.3%
CLE +1.5: 55.7%
DET -1.5: 44.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 1.9 - DET 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.9 - DET 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CLE 37.3% - DET 62.7% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +168 / DET -168
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML +115 +159 -7.9%
DET ML -124 -159 +6.0%
CLE +1.5 -194 -126 -10.3%
DET -1.5 +159 +126 +5.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -7.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | August 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Paul Skenes Home: Eury Pérez
ERA: 3.96 ERA: 3.61
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 11.24 K/9: 9.93
BB/9: 2.5 BB/9: 3.45
FIP: 2.74 FIP: 3.58
IP: 129.7 IP: 109.7
xERA: 3.01 xERA: 3.79
xwOBA: 0.27 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT MIA Lg Avg
Record 58-62 60-59
R/Game 5.02 4.40 4.49
RA/Game 4.84 4.28 4.49
OPS 0.746 0.731 0.719
wOBA 0.324 0.315 0.310
ERA 4.34 3.97 4.17
FIP 3.76 3.83 4.04
WHIP 1.33 1.25 1.31
K/9 9.35 8.59 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.516 0.513 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.00 4.40 4.23
BP FIP 3.85 3.76 4.08
BP WHIP 1.36 1.32
BP K/9 9.48 9.18
BP Quality* 45.9 45.2 46.3
BP IP 438.7 382.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0065 (Temp: 1.0212 | Wind: 0.9856)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 4.2 - MIA 3.6
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.2 - MIA 3.6
Win Probability: PIT 56.7% - MIA 43.3%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -131 / MIA +131
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.0: 49.7%
Under 7.0: 40.0%
PIT -1.5: 39.1%
MIA +1.5: 60.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 2.3 - MIA 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.3 - MIA 1.8
F5 Win Prob: PIT 59.8% - MIA 40.2% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -149 / MIA +149
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML -112 -131 +3.8%
MIA ML +104 +131 -5.7%
PIT -1.5 +145 +155 -1.7%
MIA +1.5 -176 -155 -2.9%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -2.6%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -12.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | August 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shota Imanaga Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC WSH Lg Avg
Record 69-50 59-61
R/Game 5.16 5.36 4.49
RA/Game 4.26 5.16 4.49
OPS 0.756 0.767 0.719
wOBA 0.327 0.328 0.310
ERA 4.05 4.71 4.17
FIP 4.53 4.58 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.39 1.31
K/9 7.71 7.60 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.587 0.517 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.36 5.58 4.23
BP FIP 4.51 4.86 4.08
BP WHIP 1.35 1.53
BP K/9 8.47 8.51
BP Quality* 48.6 55.8 46.3
BP IP 482.7 454.7
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0102 (Temp: 1.0153 | Wind: 0.9949)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 5.4 - WSH 5.3
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.4 - WSH 5.3
Win Probability: CHC 50.4% - WSH 49.6%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -102 / WSH +102
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 9.0: 57.1%
Under 9.0: 34.8%
CHC -1.5: 36.6%
WSH +1.5: 63.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 2.8 - WSH 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.8 - WSH 2.8
F5 Win Prob: CHC 49.9% - WSH 50.1% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +101 / WSH -101
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -159 -102 -10.9%
WSH ML +148 +102 +9.2%
CHC -1.5 -103 +173 -14.1%
WSH +1.5 -117 -173 +9.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +4.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -17.6%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line) [-117]
Model: 63.4% | Market: 53.9% | Edge: 9.5%
Fair ML: -173 | Kelly: 5.14%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01040
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | August 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bryan Woo Home: Ryan Weathers
ERA: 4.31 ERA: 3.79
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 8.98 K/9: 9.82
BB/9: 1.91 BB/9: 2.53
FIP: 3.07 FIP: 3.59
IP: 127.3 IP: 121.0
xERA: 3.63 xERA: 4.39
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryan Woo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA NYY Lg Avg
Record 56-63 66-52
R/Game 3.88 4.50 4.49
RA/Game 4.04 3.81 4.49
OPS 0.683 0.720 0.719
wOBA 0.298 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.78 3.30 4.17
FIP 3.62 3.53 4.04
WHIP 1.20 1.18 1.31
K/9 8.65 9.09 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.482 0.576 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.55 2.83 4.23
BP FIP 3.82 3.80 4.08
BP WHIP 1.31 1.17
BP K/9 9.03 8.36
BP Quality* 43.9 40.5 46.3
BP IP 349.7 353.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Michael Rucker (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 34%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0073 (Temp: 1.0108 | Wind: 0.9966)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 3.5 - NYY 4.1
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.5 - NYY 4.1
Win Probability: SEA 42.8% - NYY 57.2%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +134 / NYY -134
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 8.0: 38.4%
Under 8.0: 51.7%
SEA +1.5: 61.2%
NYY -1.5: 38.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.0 - NYY 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.0 - NYY 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SEA 47.2% - NYY 52.8% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +112 / NYY -112
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML +116 +134 -3.5%
NYY ML -124 -134 +1.8%
SEA +1.5 -193 -158 -4.7%
NYY -1.5 +158 +158 +0.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -14.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -0.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | August 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Patrick Sandoval Home: Dylan Cease
ERA: 3.38 ERA: 2.28
WHIP: 1.67 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 9.38 K/9: 13.11
BB/9: 3.75 BB/9: 3.7
FIP: 3.89 FIP: 2.14
IP: 24.0 IP: 126.3
xERA: 4.48 xERA: 2.7
xwOBA: 0.325 xwOBA: 0.256
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Dylan Cease)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TOR Lg Avg
Record 64-54 57-63
R/Game 4.44 3.92 4.49
RA/Game 3.74 4.41 4.49
OPS 0.721 0.679 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.293 0.310
ERA 3.49 3.99 4.17
FIP 3.56 3.89 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.32 1.31
K/9 8.71 8.88 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.578 0.447 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.22 3.41 4.23
BP FIP 3.40 3.82 4.08
BP WHIP 1.24 1.37
BP K/9 9.40 7.80
BP Quality* 41.7 51.8 46.3
BP IP 318.7 221.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
UNAVAIL: Jovani Morán (B2B, 28 pitches)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Simeon Woods Richardson (45 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Lazaro Estrada (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Spencer Miles (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0163 (Temp: 1.0045 | Wind: 1.0117)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 3.5 - TOR 3.5
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.5 - TOR 3.5
Win Probability: BOS 50.1% - TOR 49.9%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -101 / TOR +101
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 7.0: 41.6%
Under 7.0: 47.8%
BOS +1.5: 69.1%
TOR -1.5: 30.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 1.4 - TOR 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.4 - TOR 1.9
F5 Win Prob: BOS 40.8% - TOR 59.2% (Tie: 21.2%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +145 / TOR -145
F5 Avg Total: 3.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML +127 -101 +6.1%
TOR ML -136 +101 -7.8%
BOS +1.5 -184 -224 +4.3%
TOR -1.5 +152 +224 -8.8%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -10.8%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -4.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | August 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nolan McLean Home: Martín Pérez
ERA: 3.51 ERA: 3.14
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 10.74 K/9: 7.0
BB/9: 3.31 BB/9: 3.59
FIP: 3.21 FIP: 4.17
IP: 130.7 IP: 100.3
xERA: 3.65 xERA: 4.33
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM ATL Lg Avg
Record 53-67 71-48
R/Game 4.22 4.88 4.49
RA/Game 4.56 3.90 4.49
OPS 0.696 0.732 0.719
wOBA 0.301 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.11 3.64 4.17
FIP 3.81 3.99 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.24 1.31
K/9 9.14 8.72 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.465 0.601 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.43 3.57 4.23
BP FIP 4.25 3.64 4.08
BP WHIP 1.41 1.20
BP K/9 9.07 9.20
BP Quality* 48.2 43.7 46.3
BP IP 217.3 367.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Suter (48 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0201 (Temp: 1.0258 | Wind: 0.9945)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 4.1 - ATL 4.7
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.1 - ATL 4.7
Win Probability: NYM 43.6% - ATL 56.4%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +129 / ATL -129
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 49.6%
Under 8.5: 50.4%
NYM +1.5: 60.2%
ATL -1.5: 39.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.3 - ATL 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.3 - ATL 2.4
F5 Win Prob: NYM 48.9% - ATL 51.1% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +104 / ATL -104
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +119 +129 -2.0%
ATL ML -127 -129 +0.4%
NYM +1.5 -193 -151 -5.7%
ATL -1.5 +158 +151 +1.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | August 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brandon Young Home: Bailey Ober
ERA: 3.43 ERA: 4.45
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 7.44 K/9: 6.1
BB/9: 3.18 BB/9: 2.32
FIP: 3.95 FIP: 4.48
IP: 107.7 IP: 93.0
xERA: 4.3 xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Brandon Young)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL MIN Lg Avg
Record 57-62 59-61
R/Game 4.48 4.68 4.49
RA/Game 4.79 4.94 4.49
OPS 0.712 0.726 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.24 4.59 4.17
FIP 4.02 4.14 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.38 1.31
K/9 8.04 8.41 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.469 0.475 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.53 4.54 4.23
BP FIP 4.03 3.97 4.08
BP WHIP 1.35 1.43
BP K/9 8.64 8.65
BP Quality* 50.0 52.0 46.3
BP IP 393.7 527.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Travis Adams (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0252 (Temp: 1.0240 | Wind: 1.0012)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 5.0 - MIN 5.0
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.9 - MIN 4.9
Win Probability: BAL 49.9% - MIN 50.1%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +101 / MIN -101
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 9.5: 50.3%
Under 9.5: 49.7%
BAL -1.5: 35.4%
MIN +1.5: 64.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 2.7 - MIN 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.7 - MIN 2.6
F5 Win Prob: BAL 52.2% - MIN 47.8% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -109 / MIN +109
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +103 +101 +0.6%
MIN ML -111 -101 -2.5%
BAL -1.5 +156 +182 -3.7%
MIN +1.5 -189 -182 -0.8%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -2.1%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -2.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | August 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Lodolo Home: Sean Burke
ERA: 4.6 ERA: 3.08
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 7.18 K/9: 10.07
BB/9: 3.88 BB/9: 2.73
FIP: 4.66 FIP: 3.19
IP: 62.7 IP: 128.7
xERA: 6.15 xERA: 3.6
xwOBA: 0.373 xwOBA: 0.294
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Sean Burke)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN CWS Lg Avg
Record 56-61 61-56
R/Game 4.12 4.76 4.49
RA/Game 4.75 4.44 4.49
OPS 0.706 0.722 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.48 4.11 4.17
FIP 4.54 4.02 4.04
WHIP 1.41 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.11 8.52 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.435 0.531 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.61 4.05 4.23
BP FIP 4.75 4.24 4.08
BP WHIP 1.44 1.33
BP K/9 8.53 8.07
BP Quality* 51.6 51.1 46.3
BP IP 431.3 302.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jordan Hicks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sean Newcomb (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0003 (Temp: 1.0041 | Wind: 0.9962)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 3.7 - CWS 5.8
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.7 - CWS 5.8
Win Probability: CIN 30.9% - CWS 69.1%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +223 / CWS -223
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 7.5: 64.5%
Under 7.5: 35.5%
CIN +1.5: 46.1%
CWS -1.5: 53.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 1.8 - CWS 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 1.8 - CWS 3.3
F5 Win Prob: CIN 27.3% - CWS 72.7% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +267 / CWS -267
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +142 +223 -10.4%
CWS ML -153 -223 +8.6%
CIN +1.5 -162 +117 -15.7%
CWS -1.5 +134 -117 +11.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +12.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -16.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01041
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | August 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cristopher Sánchez Home: Andre Pallante
ERA: 2.65 ERA: 3.63
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 10.46 K/9: 6.53
BB/9: 2.1 BB/9: 2.69
FIP: 2.61 FIP: 3.59
IP: 149.7 IP: 124.0
xERA: 3.37 xERA: 3.73
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.299
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI STL Lg Avg
Record 64-56 59-60
R/Game 4.45 4.37 4.49
RA/Game 4.44 4.45 4.49
OPS 0.709 0.696 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.20 4.13 4.17
FIP 3.66 3.97 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.34 1.31
K/9 9.95 7.71 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.501 0.492 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.27 4.24 4.23
BP FIP 3.56 4.07 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.36
BP K/9 10.08 7.89
BP Quality* 51.0 49.6 46.3
BP IP 419.7 449.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Alan Rangel (55 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 96°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (96°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0059 (Temp: 1.0357 | Wind: 0.9713)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.2 - STL 3.8
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.2 - STL 3.8
Win Probability: PHI 53.3% - STL 46.7%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -114 / STL +114
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.0: 41.8%
Under 8.0: 48.4%
PHI -1.5: 36.0%
STL +1.5: 64.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.1 - STL 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.1 - STL 1.7
F5 Win Prob: PHI 59.1% - STL 40.9% (Tie: 19.2%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -144 / STL +144
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -162 -114 -8.5%
STL ML +151 +114 +6.8%
PHI -1.5 +100 +177 -14.0%
STL +1.5 -120 -177 +9.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -10.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -4.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (Run Line) [-120]
Model: 64.0% | Market: 54.5% | Edge: 9.4%
Fair ML: -177 | Kelly: 5.18%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01042
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | August 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cody Bradford Home: Ryan Johnson
ERA: 0.0 ERA: 7.11
WHIP: 1.62 WHIP: 1.6
K/9: 10.38 K/9: 6.75
BB/9: 4.15 BB/9: 4.44
FIP: 2.17 FIP: 6.41
IP: 4.3 IP: 50.7
xERA: 3.18 xERA: 5.73
xwOBA: 0.277 xwOBA: 0.362
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Cody Bradford)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX LAA Lg Avg
Record 60-59 45-74
R/Game 4.14 4.08 4.49
RA/Game 4.39 4.87 4.49
OPS 0.716 0.688 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.25 4.51 4.17
FIP 4.02 4.12 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.38 1.31
K/9 8.64 9.14 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.420 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.33 4.74 4.23
BP FIP 4.24 4.46 4.08
BP WHIP 1.37 1.42
BP K/9 8.02 8.87
BP Quality* 50.6 51.8 46.3
BP IP 390.3 290.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Blake Weiman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9849 (Temp: 1.0051 | Wind: 0.9799)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 5.5 - LAA 3.8
Simulated Avg: TEX 5.5 - LAA 3.8
Win Probability: TEX 65.1% - LAA 34.9%
Fair Moneyline: TEX -186 / LAA +186
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 9.0: 45.6%
Under 9.0: 45.5%
TEX -1.5: 50.0%
LAA +1.5: 50.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 3.5 - LAA 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 3.5 - LAA 1.9
F5 Win Prob: TEX 73.4% - LAA 26.6% (Tie: 13.9%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -276 / LAA +276
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -137 -186 +7.3%
LAA ML +127 +186 -9.1%
TEX -1.5 +113 +100 +3.0%
LAA +1.5 -136 -100 -7.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -6.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -6.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | August 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tomoyuki Sugano Home: Mitch Bratt
ERA: 4.51 ERA: 3.9
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.52
K/9: 5.1 K/9: 6.83
BB/9: 2.17 BB/9: 5.86
FIP: 5.35 FIP: 5.41
IP: 107.7 IP: 27.7
xERA: 7.16 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.397 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL ARI Lg Avg
Record 46-73 64-56
R/Game 4.77 4.55 4.49
RA/Game 5.77 4.43 4.49
OPS 0.745 0.710 0.719
wOBA 0.320 0.305 0.310
ERA 5.51 4.11 4.17
FIP 4.69 4.24 4.04
WHIP 1.52 1.29 1.31
K/9 7.06 6.87 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.414 0.512 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.20 3.78 4.23
BP FIP 4.45 3.69 4.08
BP WHIP 1.54 1.19
BP K/9 7.47 7.68
BP Quality* 56.0 43.3 46.3
BP IP 309.7 378.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Zach Agnos (55 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Parker Mushinski (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Zack Littell (45 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.5 - ARI 6.2
Simulated Avg: COL 4.5 - ARI 6.2
Win Probability: COL 35.9% - ARI 64.1%
Fair Moneyline: COL +179 / ARI -179
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 9.5: 56.4%
Under 9.5: 43.6%
COL +1.5: 49.9%
ARI -1.5: 50.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.6 - ARI 3.6
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.5 - ARI 3.6
F5 Win Prob: COL 36.3% - ARI 63.7% (Tie: 13.4%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +175 / ARI -175
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +158 +179 -2.9%
ARI ML -170 -179 +1.2%
COL +1.5 -136 +101 -7.8%
ARI -1.5 +113 -101 +3.2%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +4.0%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -8.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics
Regular Season | August 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nick Martinez Home: Mason Barnett
ERA: 2.65 ERA: 5.56
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 5.09 K/9: 9.53
BB/9: 1.4 BB/9: 4.5
FIP: 3.94 FIP: 5.54
IP: 129.0 IP: 34.0
xERA: 4.6 xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: TB (Nick Martinez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB ATH Lg Avg
Record 72-46 47-72
R/Game 4.48 4.34 4.49
RA/Game 4.06 5.75 4.49
OPS 0.732 0.715 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.70 5.45 4.17
FIP 3.92 4.80 4.04
WHIP 1.15 1.50 1.31
K/9 8.26 8.66 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.545 0.374 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.76 5.93 4.23
BP FIP 4.07 4.79 4.08
BP WHIP 1.17 1.60
BP K/9 8.64 9.13
BP Quality* 49.0 60.1 46.3
BP IP 411.3 464.3
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Matz (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Seth Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9815 (Temp: 0.9884 | Wind: 0.9930)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 5.6 - ATH 4.4
Simulated Avg: TB 5.6 - ATH 4.4
Win Probability: TB 60.9% - ATH 39.1%
Fair Moneyline: TB -156 / ATH +156
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 10.5: 42.5%
Under 10.5: 57.5%
TB -1.5: 46.2%
ATH +1.5: 53.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 3.1 - ATH 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 3.1 - ATH 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TB 62.5% - ATH 37.5% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -167 / ATH +167
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -165 -156 -1.4%
ATH ML +153 +156 -0.4%
TB -1.5 -110 +117 -6.2%
ATH +1.5 -110 -117 +1.4%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -9.8%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +5.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | August 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kyle Harrison Home: Walker Buehler
ERA: 2.84 ERA: 5.07
WHIP: 1.04 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 11.27 K/9: 7.89
BB/9: 2.13 BB/9: 3.74
FIP: 2.77 FIP: 4.27
IP: 88.7 IP: 108.3
xERA: 3.01 xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: 0.27 xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Kyle Harrison)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL SD Lg Avg
Record 74-45 63-57
R/Game 4.93 4.22 4.49
RA/Game 3.76 4.30 4.49
OPS 0.734 0.698 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.301 0.310
ERA 3.47 4.14 4.17
FIP 3.43 4.08 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.32 1.31
K/9 9.85 8.24 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.622 0.492 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.62 2.87 4.23
BP FIP 3.58 2.97 4.08
BP WHIP 1.29 1.14
BP K/9 9.01 10.89
BP Quality* 45.9 39.0 46.3
BP IP 412.7 253.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeremiah Estrada (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0048 (Temp: 1.0037 | Wind: 1.0010)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 4.6 - SD 3.4
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.6 - SD 3.4
Win Probability: MIL 62.4% - SD 37.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -166 / SD +166
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 7.5: 51.6%
Under 7.5: 48.4%
MIL -1.5: 45.0%
SD +1.5: 55.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.8 - SD 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.8 - SD 1.6
F5 Win Prob: MIL 71.2% - SD 28.7% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -248 / SD +248
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -116 -166 +8.7%
SD ML +108 +166 -10.5%
MIL -1.5 +139 +122 +3.1%
SD +1.5 -168 -122 -7.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -0.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -4.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | August 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Hunter Brown Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU SF Lg Avg
Record 61-59 49-70
R/Game 4.63 4.10 4.49
RA/Game 4.84 4.66 4.49
OPS 0.734 0.714 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.57 4.37 4.17
FIP 4.53 4.06 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.36 1.31
K/9 8.84 7.71 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.480 0.442 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.19 4.83 4.23
BP FIP 4.41 4.42 4.08
BP WHIP 1.29 1.51
BP K/9 9.12 6.92
BP Quality* 48.5 57.7 46.3
BP IP 416.3 309.3
Bullpen Edge: HOU (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jason Foley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Keaton Winn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Cool (60°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9538 (Temp: 0.9852 | Wind: 0.9681)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.5 - SF 3.7
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.5 - SF 3.6
Win Probability: HOU 59.3% - SF 40.7%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -146 / SF +146
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.0: 44.2%
Under 8.0: 46.0%
HOU -1.5: 42.6%
SF +1.5: 57.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.3 - SF 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.3 - SF 1.9
F5 Win Prob: HOU 57.4% - SF 42.6% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -135 / SF +135
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML -181 -146 -5.1%
SF ML +168 +146 +3.4%
HOU -1.5 -112 +135 -10.3%
SF +1.5 -107 -135 +5.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -8.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -6.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | August 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael Wacha Home: Blake Snell
ERA: 3.44 ERA: 12.0
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 2.67
K/9: 7.0 K/9: 15.0
BB/9: 2.56 BB/9: 6.0
FIP: 3.93 FIP: 1.77
IP: 144.0 IP: 3.0
xERA: 4.18 xERA: 3.92
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Blake Snell)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC LAD Lg Avg
Record 49-71 71-48
R/Game 4.14 5.02 4.49
RA/Game 5.07 3.85 4.49
OPS 0.710 0.767 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.328 0.310
ERA 4.85 3.73 4.17
FIP 4.57 3.91 4.04
WHIP 1.43 1.16 1.31
K/9 7.57 9.08 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.409 0.619 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.79 4.19 4.23
BP FIP 5.29 3.92 4.08
BP WHIP 1.61 1.28
BP K/9 7.65 9.79
BP Quality* 60.8 53.7 46.3
BP IP 456.7 356.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edwin Díaz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kyle Hurt (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Evan Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9933 (Temp: 0.9987 | Wind: 0.9946)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 4.8 - LAD 5.4
Simulated Avg: KC 4.8 - LAD 5.4
Win Probability: KC 44.9% - LAD 55.1%
Fair Moneyline: KC +123 / LAD -123
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 8.5: 60.8%
Under 8.5: 39.2%
KC +1.5: 59.8%
LAD -1.5: 40.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.8 - LAD 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.8 - LAD 2.5
F5 Win Prob: KC 54.3% - LAD 45.7% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -119 / LAD +119
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +234 +123 +15.0%
LAD ML -254 -123 -16.7%
KC +1.5 +101 -149 +10.0%
LAD -1.5 -121 +149 -14.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +8.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -13.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
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[HMC] Kansas City Royals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +234 | Edge: 15.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01043