2026-08-12
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-12
Games: 15 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | August 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane Baz Home: Zebby Matthews
ERA: 3.76 ERA: 5.23
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 7.92 K/9: 7.64
BB/9: 3.04 BB/9: 2.93
FIP: 3.31 FIP: 4.95
IP: 136.3 IP: 86.0
xERA: 4.14 xERA: 4.78
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.335
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Shane Baz)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL MIN Lg Avg
Record 58-62 59-62
R/Game 4.48 4.66 4.48
RA/Game 4.77 4.94 4.48
OPS 0.715 0.724 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.313 0.310
ERA 4.21 4.59 4.16
FIP 4.01 4.16 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.38 1.30
K/9 8.03 8.41 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.472 0.473 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.49 4.51 4.22
BP FIP 4.02 3.96 4.08
BP WHIP 1.34 1.44
BP K/9 8.64 8.68
BP Quality* 49.8 53.4 46.3
BP IP 396.7 530.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Walker (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Taylor Rogers (B2B, 30 pitches)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ryan Jeffers, Byron Buxton, Alex Jackson
Ryan Jeffers Catcher OPS: 0.878 (203 AB)
Byron Buxton Outfielder OPS: 0.864 (331 AB)
Alex Jackson Catcher OPS: 0.742 (66 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0441 (Temp: 1.0238 | Wind: 1.0198)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 5.5 - MIN 4.4
Simulated Avg: BAL 5.5 - MIN 4.4
Win Probability: BAL 59.8% - MIN 40.2%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -149 / MIN +149
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.0: 49.9%
Under 9.0: 41.7%
BAL -1.5: 45.0%
MIN +1.5: 55.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 3.1 - MIN 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 3.1 - MIN 2.2
F5 Win Prob: BAL 63.5% - MIN 36.5% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -174 / MIN +174
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML -101 -149 +9.5%
MIN ML -106 +149 -11.2%
BAL -1.5 +151 +122 +5.2%
MIN +1.5 -184 -122 -9.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -2.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -10.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | August 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zack Wheeler Home: Kyle Leahy
ERA: 2.69 ERA: 3.45
WHIP: 0.98 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 10.77 K/9: 7.93
BB/9: 2.28 BB/9: 2.8
FIP: 3.12 FIP: 3.66
IP: 110.3 IP: 112.3
xERA: 2.72 xERA: 5.22
xwOBA: 0.257 xwOBA: 0.348
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Zack Wheeler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI STL Lg Avg
Record 64-57 60-60
R/Game 4.41 4.35 4.48
RA/Game 4.42 4.41 4.48
OPS 0.708 0.695 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.301 0.310
ERA 4.18 4.10 4.16
FIP 3.66 3.97 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.34 1.30
K/9 9.95 7.69 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.499 0.494 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.28 4.22 4.22
BP FIP 3.57 4.08 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.37
BP K/9 10.08 7.89
BP Quality* 45.1 52.7 46.3
BP IP 420.7 452.7
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 100°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (100°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0346 (Temp: 1.0415 | Wind: 0.9933)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 4.7 - STL 3.7
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.7 - STL 3.7
Win Probability: PHI 59.7% - STL 40.3%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -148 / STL +148
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.0: 45.3%
Under 8.0: 44.7%
PHI -1.5: 42.9%
STL +1.5: 57.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.5 - STL 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.5 - STL 1.7
F5 Win Prob: PHI 64.0% - STL 36.0% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -178 / STL +178
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -158 -148 -1.5%
STL ML +147 +148 -0.2%
PHI -1.5 +104 +133 -6.1%
STL +1.5 -126 -133 +1.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -7.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics
Regular Season | August 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Drew Rasmussen Home: Jack Perkins
ERA: 2.75 ERA: 7.04
WHIP: 0.91 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 9.41 K/9: 10.8
BB/9: 1.59 BB/9: 3.64
FIP: 2.79 FIP: 4.46
IP: 124.3 IP: 76.7
xERA: 3.06 xERA: 4.17
xwOBA: 0.272 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: TB (Drew Rasmussen)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB ATH Lg Avg
Record 73-46 47-73
R/Game 4.55 4.33 4.48
RA/Game 4.06 5.80 4.48
OPS 0.737 0.715 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.70 5.49 4.16
FIP 3.92 4.86 4.04
WHIP 1.14 1.50 1.30
K/9 8.23 8.63 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.552 0.370 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.76 6.02 4.22
BP FIP 4.07 4.78 4.08
BP WHIP 1.17 1.62
BP K/9 8.64 9.12
BP Quality* 43.0 62.0 46.3
BP IP 411.3 435.3
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yunior Tur (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brady Basso (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9922 (Temp: 1.0003 | Wind: 0.9919)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 5.7 - ATH 3.6
Simulated Avg: TB 5.8 - ATH 3.6
Win Probability: TB 70.0% - ATH 30.0%
Fair Moneyline: TB -233 / ATH +233
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 9.5: 45.6%
Under 9.5: 54.4%
TB -1.5: 55.2%
ATH +1.5: 44.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 3.1 - ATH 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 3.1 - ATH 1.7
F5 Win Prob: TB 72.2% - ATH 27.8% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -259 / ATH +259
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML -210 -233 +2.2%
ATH ML +195 +233 -3.8%
TB -1.5 -135 -123 -2.3%
ATH +1.5 +112 +123 -2.4%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -6.8%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +2.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | August 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryan Feltner Home: Merrill Kelly
ERA: 5.71 ERA: 4.88
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 6.48 K/9: 6.0
BB/9: 3.62 BB/9: 3.75
FIP: 5.72 FIP: 5.51
IP: 82.0 IP: 120.0
xERA: 5.46 xERA: 6.97
xwOBA: 0.355 xwOBA: 0.393
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL ARI Lg Avg
Record 47-73 64-57
R/Game 4.76 4.53 4.48
RA/Game 5.74 4.42 4.48
OPS 0.744 0.710 0.719
wOBA 0.319 0.305 0.310
ERA 5.48 4.10 4.16
FIP 4.69 4.23 4.04
WHIP 1.51 1.29 1.30
K/9 7.06 6.87 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.415 0.511 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.20 3.78 4.22
BP FIP 4.34 3.68 4.08
BP WHIP 1.51 1.19
BP K/9 7.44 7.69
BP Quality* 52.2 44.8 46.3
BP IP 292.7 381.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 99°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (99°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0374 (Temp: 1.0407 | Wind: 0.9969)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 6.0 - ARI 6.1
Simulated Avg: COL 6.0 - ARI 6.1
Win Probability: COL 49.1% - ARI 50.9%
Fair Moneyline: COL +104 / ARI -104
Avg Total Runs: 12.1
Over 9.0: 66.3%
Under 9.0: 26.8%
COL +1.5: 62.0%
ARI -1.5: 38.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 3.9 - ARI 3.6
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 3.9 - ARI 3.6
F5 Win Prob: COL 53.2% - ARI 46.8% (Tie: 11.9%)
F5 Fair ML: COL -114 / ARI +114
F5 Avg Total: 7.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +154 +104 +9.8%
ARI ML -165 -104 -11.4%
COL +1.5 -142 -163 +3.3%
ARI -1.5 +118 +163 -7.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +13.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -25.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 9.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01044
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | August 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bryan King Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU SF Lg Avg
Record 61-60 50-70
R/Game 4.60 4.10 4.48
RA/Game 4.83 4.62 4.48
OPS 0.732 0.714 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.57 4.34 4.16
FIP 4.52 4.05 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.84 7.68 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.478 0.445 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.19 4.78 4.22
BP FIP 4.38 4.40 4.08
BP WHIP 1.29 1.50
BP K/9 9.14 6.91
BP Quality* 48.4 58.8 46.3
BP IP 419.3 312.7
Bullpen Edge: HOU (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: JT Brubaker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carson Seymour (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jason Foley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9613 (Temp: 0.9940 | Wind: 0.9671)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 4.6 - SF 3.9
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.6 - SF 3.9
Win Probability: HOU 56.5% - SF 43.5%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -130 / SF +130
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.5: 46.9%
Under 8.5: 53.1%
HOU -1.5: 40.0%
SF +1.5: 60.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 2.3 - SF 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.3 - SF 2.1
F5 Win Prob: HOU 53.8% - SF 46.2% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -117 / SF +117
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML -141 -130 -2.0%
SF ML +131 +130 +0.2%
HOU -1.5 +113 +150 -6.9%
SF +1.5 -136 -150 +2.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -5.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +0.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | August 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dustin May Home: Robbie Ray
ERA: 4.3 ERA: 3.24
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 8.69 K/9: 7.68
BB/9: 2.97 BB/9: 4.37
FIP: 3.07 FIP: 4.48
IP: 115.0 IP: 127.7
xERA: 4.06 xERA: 4.59
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Dustin May)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL SD Lg Avg
Record 74-46 64-57
R/Game 4.91 4.28 4.48
RA/Game 3.82 4.28 4.48
OPS 0.732 0.703 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.303 0.310
ERA 3.54 4.12 4.16
FIP 3.46 4.07 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.31 1.30
K/9 9.82 8.23 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.613 0.500 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.66 2.87 4.22
BP FIP 3.56 2.97 4.08
BP WHIP 1.30 1.14
BP K/9 8.98 10.89
BP Quality* 43.1 36.0 46.3
BP IP 416.0 253.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bryse Wilson (39 pitches yesterday)
SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Griffin Canning (35 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0032 (Temp: 1.0110 | Wind: 0.9924)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 4.2 - SD 3.8
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.2 - SD 3.8
Win Probability: MIL 54.2% - SD 45.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -119 / SD +119
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.0: 42.9%
Under 8.0: 47.3%
MIL -1.5: 37.0%
SD +1.5: 63.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.6 - SD 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.6 - SD 2.1
F5 Win Prob: MIL 60.1% - SD 39.9% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -151 / SD +151
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -113 -119 +1.2%
SD ML +105 +119 -3.0%
MIL -1.5 +141 +170 -4.5%
SD +1.5 -171 -170 -0.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -9.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | August 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Foster Griffin Home: Framber Valdez
ERA: 3.31 ERA: 4.17
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 8.24 K/9: 7.28
BB/9: 2.16 BB/9: 3.18
FIP: 4.04 FIP: 3.77
IP: 133.3 IP: 127.3
xERA: 4.09 xERA: 4.29
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE DET Lg Avg
Record 58-62 59-60
R/Game 3.98 4.58 4.48
RA/Game 4.22 3.83 4.48
OPS 0.682 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.297 0.314 0.310
ERA 3.85 3.48 4.16
FIP 3.80 3.67 4.04
WHIP 1.27 1.20 1.30
K/9 9.42 8.44 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.581 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.86 4.13 4.22
BP FIP 3.70 4.29 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.36
BP K/9 9.90 8.26
BP Quality* 42.9 53.2 46.3
BP IP 403.7 313.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
DET: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kenley Jansen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9842 (Temp: 1.0026 | Wind: 0.9817)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.0 - DET 4.2
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.0 - DET 4.2
Win Probability: CLE 47.1% - DET 52.9%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +112 / DET -112
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.0: 43.9%
Under 8.0: 46.5%
CLE +1.5: 64.4%
DET -1.5: 35.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.1 - DET 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.1 - DET 2.3
F5 Win Prob: CLE 45.2% - DET 54.8% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +121 / DET -121
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML +111 +112 -0.3%
DET ML -119 -112 -1.4%
CLE +1.5 -198 -181 -2.1%
DET -1.5 +162 +181 -2.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -8.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | August 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Carmen Mlodzinski Home: Janson Junk
ERA: 3.51 ERA: 4.63
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 7.12 K/9: 6.83
BB/9: 2.96 BB/9: 2.53
FIP: 3.57 FIP: 4.34
IP: 97.3 IP: 81.7
xERA: 4.95 xERA: 4.2
xwOBA: 0.34 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Carmen Mlodzinski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT MIA Lg Avg
Record 58-63 61-59
R/Game 4.98 4.38 4.48
RA/Game 4.82 4.24 4.48
OPS 0.743 0.730 0.719
wOBA 0.322 0.315 0.310
ERA 4.32 3.93 4.16
FIP 3.76 3.81 4.04
WHIP 1.32 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.35 8.61 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.515 0.515 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.97 4.38 4.22
BP FIP 3.83 3.74 4.08
BP WHIP 1.35 1.31
BP K/9 9.52 9.20
BP Quality* 45.7 46.4 46.3
BP IP 441.7 384.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (40 pitches yesterday)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 17%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0041 (Temp: 1.0154 | Wind: 0.9889)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 4.7 - MIA 4.1
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.7 - MIA 4.1
Win Probability: PIT 55.8% - MIA 44.2%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -126 / MIA +126
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.0: 49.2%
Under 8.0: 41.7%
PIT -1.5: 39.7%
MIA +1.5: 60.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 2.7 - MIA 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.7 - MIA 2.2
F5 Win Prob: PIT 57.7% - MIA 42.3% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -136 / MIA +136
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML -101 -126 +5.5%
MIA ML -106 +126 -7.2%
PIT -1.5 +162 +152 +1.5%
MIA +1.5 -198 -152 -6.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -3.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -10.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] WSH starter (id 800600) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (the model never uses prior-season data).
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | August 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: David Peterson Home: Player 800600
ERA: 5.35 ERA: 0.0
WHIP: 1.5 WHIP: 0.0
K/9: 7.47 K/9: 0.0
BB/9: 3.65 BB/9: 0.0
FIP: 4.01 FIP: 0.0
IP: 106.0 IP: 0.0
xERA: 4.98 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.341 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Player 800600)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC WSH Lg Avg
Record 70-50 59-62
R/Game 5.18 5.36 4.48
RA/Game 4.28 5.18 4.48
OPS 0.757 0.768 0.719
wOBA 0.327 0.328 0.310
ERA 4.07 4.73 4.16
FIP 4.54 4.61 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.39 1.30
K/9 7.73 7.59 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.587 0.516 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.36 5.59 4.22
BP FIP 4.48 4.90 4.08
BP WHIP 1.35 1.53
BP K/9 8.48 8.48
BP Quality* 50.0 59.0 46.3
BP IP 487.0 457.3
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Max Kranick (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Miles Mikolas (39 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0058 (Temp: 1.0240 | Wind: 0.9822)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 5.3 - WSH 6.0
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.3 - WSH 6.0
Win Probability: CHC 44.0% - WSH 56.0%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +128 / WSH -128
Avg Total Runs: 11.3
Over 9.5: 61.2%
Under 9.5: 38.9%
CHC -1.5: 31.2%
WSH +1.5: 68.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.6 - WSH 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.5 - WSH 3.4
F5 Win Prob: CHC 38.6% - WSH 61.4% (Tie: 13.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +159 / WSH -159
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -159 +128 -17.4%
WSH ML +148 -128 +15.7%
CHC -1.5 -103 +221 -19.6%
WSH +1.5 -117 -221 +14.9%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +8.8%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -13.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | August 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryce Miller Home: Will Warren
ERA: 3.08 ERA: 4.18
WHIP: 0.95 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 1.71 BB/9: 2.92
FIP: 3.81 FIP: 3.78
IP: 79.0 IP: 114.0
xERA: 2.74 xERA: 4.53
xwOBA: 0.258 xwOBA: 0.327
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA NYY Lg Avg
Record 56-64 67-52
R/Game 3.86 4.50 4.48
RA/Game 4.04 3.78 4.48
OPS 0.681 0.720 0.719
wOBA 0.297 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.79 3.28 4.16
FIP 3.61 3.53 4.04
WHIP 1.20 1.17 1.30
K/9 8.65 9.08 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.479 0.579 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.62 2.80 4.22
BP FIP 3.81 3.77 4.08
BP WHIP 1.32 1.16
BP K/9 9.03 8.39
BP Quality* 47.2 38.6 46.3
BP IP 352.7 356.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Michael Rucker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0124 (Temp: 1.0147 | Wind: 0.9978)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 3.6 - NYY 4.1
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.6 - NYY 4.1
Win Probability: SEA 44.3% - NYY 55.7%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +126 / NYY -126
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 8.5: 38.7%
Under 8.5: 61.3%
SEA +1.5: 62.5%
NYY -1.5: 37.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.1 - NYY 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.1 - NYY 2.0
F5 Win Prob: SEA 52.7% - NYY 47.3% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -111 / NYY +111
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML +116 +126 -2.0%
NYY ML -124 -126 +0.3%
SEA +1.5 -193 -167 -3.4%
NYY -1.5 +158 +167 -1.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -13.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +8.9%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.3% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.9%
Fair ML: -158 | Kelly: 4.68%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01045
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | August 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ranger Suarez Home: José Soriano
ERA: 3.32 ERA: 3.24
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 9.44 K/9: 9.16
BB/9: 2.62 BB/9: 4.23
FIP: 2.63 FIP: 3.7
IP: 103.0 IP: 127.7
xERA: 3.57 xERA: 4.38
xwOBA: 0.293 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS TOR Lg Avg
Record 64-55 58-63
R/Game 4.43 3.93 4.48
RA/Game 3.75 4.40 4.48
OPS 0.721 0.679 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.294 0.310
ERA 3.49 3.98 4.16
FIP 3.55 3.91 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.32 1.30
K/9 8.70 8.87 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.576 0.449 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.23 3.38 4.22
BP FIP 3.38 3.83 4.08
BP WHIP 1.23 1.37
BP K/9 9.40 7.77
BP Quality* 41.5 48.8 46.3
BP IP 320.7 223.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jovani Morán (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brendon Little (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Spencer Miles (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 35%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9834 (Temp: 0.9986 | Wind: 0.9848)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 4.2 - TOR 3.2
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.2 - TOR 3.2
Win Probability: BOS 60.2% - TOR 39.8%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -152 / TOR +152
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.0: 45.5%
Under 7.0: 44.0%
BOS -1.5: 42.0%
TOR +1.5: 58.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.2 - TOR 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.2 - TOR 1.6
F5 Win Prob: BOS 61.2% - TOR 38.8% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -158 / TOR +158
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -119 -152 +5.9%
TOR ML +111 +152 -7.6%
BOS -1.5 +139 +138 +0.1%
TOR +1.5 -168 -138 -4.6%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -6.9%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -8.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | August 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zac Thornton Home: Tyler Mahle
ERA: 2.52 ERA: 4.83
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 6.18 K/9: 8.76
BB/9: 2.75 BB/9: 3.49
FIP: 3.63 FIP: 4.12
IP: 39.3 IP: 100.7
xERA: 4.63 xERA: 4.0
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Zac Thornton)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM ATL Lg Avg
Record 53-68 72-48
R/Game 4.19 4.88 4.48
RA/Game 4.55 3.87 4.48
OPS 0.694 0.732 0.719
wOBA 0.300 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.12 3.61 4.16
FIP 3.84 3.98 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.10 8.69 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.462 0.604 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.51 3.54 4.22
BP FIP 4.35 3.62 4.08
BP WHIP 1.43 1.19
BP K/9 9.03 9.20
BP Quality* 49.1 43.4 46.3
BP IP 219.3 370.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0200 (Temp: 1.0227 | Wind: 0.9974)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 4.2 - ATL 5.0
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.2 - ATL 5.0
Win Probability: NYM 42.6% - ATL 57.4%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +135 / ATL -135
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.5: 53.2%
Under 8.5: 46.8%
NYM +1.5: 58.8%
ATL -1.5: 41.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.5 - ATL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.5 - ATL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: NYM 48.7% - ATL 51.3% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +105 / ATL -105
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML +158 +135 +3.9%
ATL ML -170 -135 -5.6%
NYM +1.5 -143 -143 -0.0%
ATL -1.5 +119 +143 -4.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -5.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | August 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Rhett Lowder Home: Luis Castillo
ERA: 5.26 ERA: 5.3
WHIP: 1.48 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 7.38 K/9: 7.9
BB/9: 3.94 BB/9: 2.86
FIP: 4.38 FIP: 4.43
IP: 89.0 IP: 103.7
xERA: 5.32 xERA: 4.85
xwOBA: 0.351 xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN CWS Lg Avg
Record 57-61 61-57
R/Game 4.13 4.75 4.48
RA/Game 4.75 4.45 4.48
OPS 0.704 0.722 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.47 4.10 4.16
FIP 4.54 4.00 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.12 8.53 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.436 0.530 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.55 4.04 4.22
BP FIP 4.70 4.24 4.08
BP WHIP 1.42 1.33
BP K/9 8.54 8.04
BP Quality* 54.0 51.1 46.3
BP IP 437.3 303.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Sean Newcomb (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0048 (Temp: 1.0041 | Wind: 1.0008)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 4.6 - CWS 5.7
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.6 - CWS 5.8
Win Probability: CIN 40.0% - CWS 60.1%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +150 / CWS -150
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.0: 53.9%
Under 9.0: 37.9%
CIN +1.5: 54.2%
CWS -1.5: 45.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.6 - CWS 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.6 - CWS 3.2
F5 Win Prob: CIN 42.0% - CWS 58.0% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +138 / CWS -138
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +131 +150 -3.3%
CWS ML -141 -150 +1.5%
CIN +1.5 -167 -118 -8.3%
CWS -1.5 +138 +118 +3.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +1.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -14.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | August 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Daniel Lynch IV Home: Eric Lauer
ERA: 2.45 ERA: 4.89
WHIP: 1.01 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 6.99 K/9: 5.58
BB/9: 2.64 BB/9: 2.84
FIP: 2.97 FIP: 5.92
IP: 47.7 IP: 92.0
xERA: 3.37 xERA: 4.98
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.341
Pitcher Edge: KC (Daniel Lynch IV)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC LAD Lg Avg
Record 49-72 72-48
R/Game 4.14 5.02 4.48
RA/Game 5.07 3.85 4.48
OPS 0.708 0.766 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.327 0.310
ERA 4.84 3.72 4.16
FIP 4.56 3.89 4.04
WHIP 1.43 1.16 1.30
K/9 7.58 9.11 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.409 0.619 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.78 4.18 4.22
BP FIP 5.29 3.95 4.08
BP WHIP 1.61 1.31
BP K/9 7.66 9.78
BP Quality* 60.8 51.0 46.3
BP IP 459.3 385.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Lucas Erceg (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Evan Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9905 (Temp: 0.9974 | Wind: 0.9931)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.7 - LAD 4.7
Simulated Avg: KC 4.7 - LAD 4.7
Win Probability: KC 49.0% - LAD 51.0%
Fair Moneyline: KC +104 / LAD -104
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 9.0: 46.2%
Under 9.0: 44.8%
KC +1.5: 64.7%
LAD -1.5: 35.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.8 - LAD 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.8 - LAD 1.9
F5 Win Prob: KC 64.6% - LAD 35.4% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -182 / LAD +182
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +192 +104 +14.8%
LAD ML -207 -104 -16.4%
KC +1.5 -117 -183 +10.8%
LAD -1.5 -103 +183 -15.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -6.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -7.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Kansas City Royals +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -117 | Edge: 10.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01046
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | August 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cal Quantrill Home: George Klassen
ERA: 3.56 ERA: 7.27
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 2.88
K/9: 5.89 K/9: 9.35
BB/9: 2.6 BB/9: 14.54
FIP: 4.44 FIP: 7.35
IP: 65.7 IP: 8.7
xERA: 4.44 xERA: 7.8
xwOBA: 0.324 xwOBA: 0.411
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Cal Quantrill)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX LAA Lg Avg
Record 60-60 46-74
R/Game 4.12 4.07 4.48
RA/Game 4.38 4.84 4.48
OPS 0.714 0.687 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.298 0.310
ERA 4.24 4.49 4.16
FIP 4.01 4.12 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.37 1.30
K/9 8.60 9.16 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.472 0.421 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.32 4.70 4.22
BP FIP 4.21 4.42 4.08
BP WHIP 1.36 1.41
BP K/9 7.93 8.91
BP Quality* 48.9 58.9 46.3
BP IP 398.3 295.0
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Luke Murphy (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Samy Natera Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Blake Weiman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9810 (Temp: 0.9988 | Wind: 0.9822)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 5.0 - LAA 4.2
Simulated Avg: TEX 5.0 - LAA 4.2
Win Probability: TEX 57.0% - LAA 43.0%
Fair Moneyline: TEX -132 / LAA +132
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.0: 44.0%
Under 9.0: 46.9%
TEX -1.5: 41.3%
LAA +1.5: 58.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 2.7 - LAA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.7 - LAA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TEX 56.7% - LAA 43.3% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -131 / LAA +131
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML -129 -132 +0.6%
LAA ML +120 +132 -2.4%
TEX -1.5 +119 +142 -4.4%
LAA +1.5 -144 -142 -0.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -8.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -5.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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