2026-08-13
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-13
Games: 9 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | August 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Parker Messick Home: Keider Montero
ERA: 2.57 ERA: 3.38
WHIP: 1.04 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 8.96 K/9: 6.33
BB/9: 2.5 BB/9: 2.06
FIP: 3.18 FIP: 3.76
IP: 136.7 IP: 122.3
xERA: 3.08 xERA: 3.52
xwOBA: 0.273 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE DET Lg Avg
Record 59-62 59-61
R/Game 3.99 4.58 4.48
RA/Game 4.21 3.85 4.48
OPS 0.684 0.727 0.719
wOBA 0.298 0.314 0.310
ERA 3.84 3.50 4.17
FIP 3.79 3.69 4.05
WHIP 1.27 1.21 1.30
K/9 9.43 8.41 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.475 0.578 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.84 4.15 4.22
BP FIP 3.67 4.28 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.37
BP K/9 9.98 8.23
BP Quality* 44.2 47.3 46.3
BP IP 407.7 317.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cade Smith (38 pitches yesterday)
DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Angel Martínez, Rhys Hoskins
Angel Martínez Outfielder OPS: 0.712 (277 AB)
Rhys Hoskins First Base OPS: 0.687 (257 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.0% of full strength
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Riley Greene, Colt Keith, Kerry Carpenter
Riley Greene Outfielder OPS: 0.816 (422 AB)
Colt Keith Third Base OPS: 0.727 (317 AB)
Kerry Carpenter Outfielder OPS: 0.692 (231 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9960 (Temp: 1.0172 | Wind: 0.9791)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 3.5 - DET 3.5
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.4 - DET 3.5
Win Probability: CLE 48.8% - DET 51.2%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +105 / DET -105
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 8.0: 31.7%
Under 8.0: 58.7%
CLE -1.5: 30.6%
DET +1.5: 69.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 1.8 - DET 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.8 - DET 1.7
F5 Win Prob: CLE 51.9% - DET 48.1% (Tie: 20.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -108 / DET +108
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML -108 +105 -3.1%
DET ML +100 -105 +1.2%
CLE -1.5 +141 +227 -10.9%
DET +1.5 -171 -227 +6.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -20.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +6.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | August 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Braxton Ashcraft Home: Tyler Phillips
ERA: 4.08 ERA: 3.47
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 9.86 K/9: 6.75
BB/9: 2.18 BB/9: 3.76
FIP: 3.5 FIP: 4.53
IP: 132.3 IP: 93.3
xERA: 3.44 xERA: 4.95
xwOBA: 0.288 xwOBA: 0.34
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Braxton Ashcraft)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT MIA Lg Avg
Record 58-64 62-59
R/Game 4.95 4.41 4.48
RA/Game 4.84 4.22 4.48
OPS 0.742 0.732 0.719
wOBA 0.322 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.35 3.91 4.17
FIP 3.79 3.80 4.05
WHIP 1.33 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.33 8.58 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.510 0.520 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.97 4.35 4.22
BP FIP 3.84 3.73 4.08
BP WHIP 1.35 1.31
BP K/9 9.52 9.20
BP Quality* 45.7 44.8 46.3
BP IP 444.3 387.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Lake Bachar (46 pitches yesterday)
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Endy Rodríguez, Oneil Cruz, Ryan O'Hearn, Konnor Griffin
Endy Rodríguez Catcher OPS: 0.840 (135 AB)
Oneil Cruz Outfielder OPS: 0.822 (250 AB)
Ryan O'Hearn First Base OPS: 0.788 (359 AB)
Konnor Griffin Shortstop OPS: 0.736 (225 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.2% of full strength
MIA (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Kyle Stowers, Heriberto Hernández, Joe Mack
Kyle Stowers First Base OPS: 0.789 (351 AB)
Heriberto Hernández Outfielder OPS: 0.749 (293 AB)
Joe Mack Catcher OPS: 0.714 (214 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0228 (Temp: 1.0280 | Wind: 0.9949)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 4.2 - MIA 3.7
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.2 - MIA 3.7
Win Probability: PIT 55.1% - MIA 44.9%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -123 / MIA +123
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 8.0: 40.8%
Under 8.0: 49.5%
PIT -1.5: 37.9%
MIA +1.5: 62.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 2.4 - MIA 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.5 - MIA 1.9
F5 Win Prob: PIT 59.5% - MIA 40.6% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -147 / MIA +147
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML -119 -123 +0.7%
MIA ML +111 +123 -2.5%
PIT -1.5 +135 +164 -4.7%
MIA +1.5 -163 -164 +0.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -11.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -2.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | August 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Logan Gilbert Home: Max Fried
ERA: 3.42 ERA: 2.88
WHIP: 1.0 WHIP: 0.97
K/9: 9.37 K/9: 8.3
BB/9: 2.07 BB/9: 2.77
FIP: 3.48 FIP: 2.34
IP: 139.3 IP: 81.3
xERA: 3.73 xERA: 2.38
xwOBA: 0.299 xwOBA: 0.24
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Max Fried)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA NYY Lg Avg
Record 56-65 68-52
R/Game 3.87 4.54 4.48
RA/Game 4.09 3.79 4.48
OPS 0.683 0.724 0.719
wOBA 0.298 0.310 0.310
ERA 3.85 3.30 4.17
FIP 3.62 3.57 4.05
WHIP 1.21 1.18 1.30
K/9 8.65 9.07 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.474 0.582 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.73 2.76 4.22
BP FIP 3.84 3.76 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.17
BP K/9 9.06 8.39
BP Quality* 44.7 41.5 46.3
BP IP 354.7 361.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Cole Young, Luke Raley, Taylor Ward, J.P. Crawford
Cole Young Second Base OPS: 0.725 (442 AB)
Luke Raley Outfielder OPS: 0.723 (262 AB)
Taylor Ward Outfielder OPS: 0.707 (442 AB)
J.P. Crawford Shortstop OPS: 0.675 (307 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.6% of full strength
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0076 (Temp: 1.0195 | Wind: 0.9883)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 2.6 - NYY 4.2
Simulated Avg: SEA 2.6 - NYY 4.2
Win Probability: SEA 31.6% - NYY 68.4%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +217 / NYY -217
Avg Total Runs: 6.8
Over 7.5: 38.8%
Under 7.5: 61.2%
SEA +1.5: 50.8%
NYY -1.5: 49.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 1.2 - NYY 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 1.2 - NYY 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SEA 29.0% - NYY 71.0% (Tie: 20.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +245 / NYY -245
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML +127 +217 -12.5%
NYY ML -137 -217 +10.6%
SEA +1.5 -179 -103 -13.4%
NYY -1.5 +147 +103 +8.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -13.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +8.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] New York Yankees (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -137 | Edge: 10.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01047
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | August 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andrew Abbott Home: Davis Martin
ERA: 3.92 ERA: 4.17
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 6.92 K/9: 7.9
BB/9: 4.27 BB/9: 2.78
FIP: 4.7 FIP: 3.33
IP: 128.7 IP: 123.0
xERA: 4.72 xERA: 4.66
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Davis Martin)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN CWS Lg Avg
Record 57-62 62-57
R/Game 4.09 4.76 4.48
RA/Game 4.75 4.41 4.48
OPS 0.701 0.723 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.48 4.07 4.17
FIP 4.55 3.98 4.05
WHIP 1.40 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.11 8.57 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.432 0.534 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 4.02 4.22
BP FIP 4.72 4.23 4.08
BP WHIP 1.43 1.33
BP K/9 8.53 8.10
BP Quality* 51.2 46.4 46.3
BP IP 440.0 304.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Spencer Steer, Blake Dunn, Will Benson
Spencer Steer First Base OPS: 0.740 (340 AB)
Blake Dunn Outfielder OPS: 0.722 (142 AB)
Will Benson Outfielder OPS: 0.643 (96 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.4% of full strength
CWS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Munetaka Murakami, Tristan Peters, Andrew Benintendi
Munetaka Murakami First Base OPS: 0.901 (302 AB)
Tristan Peters Outfielder OPS: 0.743 (314 AB)
Andrew Benintendi Designated Hitter OPS: 0.730 (320 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0151 (Temp: 1.0060 | Wind: 1.0090)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 3.8 - CWS 4.9
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.8 - CWS 4.9
Win Probability: CIN 38.5% - CWS 61.5%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +160 / CWS -160
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.5: 48.8%
Under 8.5: 51.2%
CIN +1.5: 55.4%
CWS -1.5: 44.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 2.1 - CWS 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.1 - CWS 2.7
F5 Win Prob: CIN 40.5% - CWS 59.5% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +147 / CWS -147
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +115 +160 -8.0%
CWS ML -123 -160 +6.3%
CIN +1.5 -196 -124 -10.9%
CWS -1.5 +161 +124 +6.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -3.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -1.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | August 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Payton Tolle Home: Max Scherzer
ERA: 3.2 ERA: 7.25
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.53
K/9: 10.43 K/9: 6.75
BB/9: 2.44 BB/9: 3.75
FIP: 3.17 FIP: 6.82
IP: 107.0 IP: 36.0
xERA: 2.81 xERA: 5.43
xwOBA: 0.261 xwOBA: 0.354
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Payton Tolle)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TOR Lg Avg
Record 64-56 59-63
R/Game 4.42 3.95 4.48
RA/Game 3.77 4.39 4.48
OPS 0.721 0.681 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.294 0.310
ERA 3.51 3.98 4.17
FIP 3.55 3.92 4.05
WHIP 1.23 1.32 1.30
K/9 8.68 8.84 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.573 0.452 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.31 3.36 4.22
BP FIP 3.39 3.83 4.08
BP WHIP 1.25 1.37
BP K/9 9.40 7.71
BP Quality* 40.5 45.7 46.3
BP IP 323.7 225.3
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0033 (Temp: 1.0111 | Wind: 0.9922)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 5.7 - TOR 3.2
Simulated Avg: BOS 5.7 - TOR 3.2
Win Probability: BOS 73.4% - TOR 26.6%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -276 / TOR +276
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.0: 50.8%
Under 8.0: 40.2%
BOS -1.5: 58.6%
TOR +1.5: 41.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 3.8 - TOR 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 3.8 - TOR 1.6
F5 Win Prob: BOS 80.3% - TOR 19.7% (Tie: 12.6%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -408 / TOR +408
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML -153 -276 +12.9%
TOR ML +142 +276 -14.7%
BOS -1.5 +105 -141 +9.8%
TOR +1.5 -127 +141 -14.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -1.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -12.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Boston Red Sox (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -153 | Edge: 12.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01048
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | August 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kevin Gausman Home: Cade Cavalli
ERA: 4.29 ERA: 3.57
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 8.78 K/9: 9.86
BB/9: 2.48 BB/9: 2.73
FIP: 3.52 FIP: 3.33
IP: 134.3 IP: 128.7
xERA: 3.84 xERA: 4.12
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC WSH Lg Avg
Record 71-50 59-63
R/Game 5.24 5.37 4.48
RA/Game 4.29 5.24 4.48
OPS 0.761 0.769 0.719
wOBA 0.328 0.328 0.310
ERA 4.08 4.76 4.17
FIP 4.55 4.64 4.05
WHIP 1.26 1.39 1.30
K/9 7.73 7.62 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.591 0.511 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.36 5.67 4.22
BP FIP 4.48 4.96 4.08
BP WHIP 1.35 1.55
BP K/9 8.48 8.53
BP Quality* 50.0 59.7 46.3
BP IP 487.0 466.3
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Javier Assad (66 pitches yesterday)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tom Cosgrove (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Williams (63 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 93°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (93°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0238 (Temp: 1.0309 | Wind: 0.9931)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 5.4 - WSH 5.4
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.4 - WSH 5.4
Win Probability: CHC 49.6% - WSH 50.4%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +102 / WSH -102
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 8.5: 65.6%
Under 8.5: 34.4%
CHC -1.5: 35.9%
WSH +1.5: 64.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.5 - WSH 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.5 - WSH 2.8
F5 Win Prob: CHC 46.6% - WSH 53.4% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +115 / WSH -115
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -146 +102 -9.7%
WSH ML +136 -102 +8.0%
CHC -1.5 +113 +179 -11.1%
WSH +1.5 -136 -179 +6.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +13.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -17.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01049
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | August 13, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Aaron Nola Home: Taj Bradley
ERA: 5.47 ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 9.29 K/9: 10.12
BB/9: 3.1 BB/9: 3.76
FIP: 5.08 FIP: 3.78
IP: 125.0 IP: 131.7
xERA: 4.26 xERA: 3.89
xwOBA: 0.318 xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Taj Bradley)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI MIN Lg Avg
Record 64-58 60-62
R/Game 4.39 4.68 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 4.94 4.48
OPS 0.706 0.725 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.20 4.60 4.17
FIP 3.65 4.17 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.38 1.30
K/9 9.95 8.42 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.494 0.475 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.29 4.49 4.22
BP FIP 3.56 3.98 4.08
BP WHIP 1.34 1.43
BP K/9 10.09 8.70
BP Quality* 43.6 48.9 46.3
BP IP 423.7 534.7
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0138 (Temp: 1.0068 | Wind: 1.0070)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.3 - MIN 5.3
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.3 - MIN 5.3
Win Probability: PHI 40.5% - MIN 59.6%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +147 / MIN -147
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.5: 55.8%
Under 8.5: 44.2%
PHI -1.5: 26.2%
MIN +1.5: 73.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.3 - MIN 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.3 - MIN 3.1
F5 Win Prob: PHI 36.7% - MIN 63.3% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +173 / MIN -173
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -103 +147 -10.3%
MIN ML -104 -147 +8.6%
PHI -1.5 +154 +282 -13.2%
MIN +1.5 -187 -282 +8.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +3.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | August 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jacob deGrom Home: Walbert Ureña
ERA: 3.87 ERA: 2.83
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 10.92 K/9: 8.59
BB/9: 2.28 BB/9: 4.87
FIP: 3.29 FIP: 3.58
IP: 118.7 IP: 101.7
xERA: 3.6 xERA: 3.39
xwOBA: 0.294 xwOBA: 0.286
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX LAA Lg Avg
Record 60-61 47-74
R/Game 4.11 4.07 4.48
RA/Game 4.39 4.82 4.48
OPS 0.714 0.686 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.298 0.310
ERA 4.25 4.47 4.17
FIP 4.00 4.11 4.05
WHIP 1.29 1.37 1.30
K/9 8.60 9.15 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.424 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.37 4.65 4.22
BP FIP 4.21 4.38 4.08
BP WHIP 1.37 1.40
BP K/9 7.89 8.91
BP Quality* 53.6 58.5 46.3
BP IP 401.3 298.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ben Peoples (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Ben Joyce (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Blake Weiman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Samy Natera Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9831 (Temp: 0.9983 | Wind: 0.9848)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 4.0 - LAA 4.0
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.0 - LAA 4.0
Win Probability: TEX 48.9% - LAA 51.1%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +104 / LAA -104
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 7.5: 52.2%
Under 7.5: 47.8%
TEX -1.5: 32.0%
LAA +1.5: 68.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 1.8 - LAA 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.8 - LAA 1.9
F5 Win Prob: TEX 47.5% - LAA 52.5% (Tie: 20.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +111 / LAA -111
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -148 +104 -10.8%
LAA ML +138 -104 +9.1%
TEX -1.5 +109 +212 -15.8%
LAA +1.5 -131 -212 +11.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -0.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -4.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -131 | Edge: 11.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01050
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | August 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shane Drohan Home: Roki Sasaki
ERA: 3.87 ERA: 4.54
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 9.09
BB/9: 2.71 BB/9: 3.43
FIP: 3.26 FIP: 4.82
IP: 93.0 IP: 105.0
xERA: 3.52 xERA: 4.18
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Shane Drohan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL LAD Lg Avg
Record 74-47 73-48
R/Game 4.89 5.01 4.48
RA/Game 3.82 3.83 4.48
OPS 0.731 0.768 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.328 0.310
ERA 3.53 3.70 4.17
FIP 3.47 3.87 4.05
WHIP 1.17 1.16 1.30
K/9 9.78 9.10 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.612 0.620 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.66 4.15 4.22
BP FIP 3.56 3.93 4.08
BP WHIP 1.29 1.30
BP K/9 8.82 9.76
BP Quality* 41.5 49.3 46.3
BP IP 413.3 388.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Landon Knack (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9887 (Temp: 0.9972 | Wind: 0.9914)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 5.0 - LAD 4.2
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.0 - LAD 4.2
Win Probability: MIL 56.6% - LAD 43.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -131 / LAD +131
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.5: 53.2%
Under 8.5: 46.8%
MIL +1.5: 71.7%
LAD -1.5: 28.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.8 - LAD 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.8 - LAD 2.3
F5 Win Prob: MIL 58.3% - LAD 41.7% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -140 / LAD +140
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML +131 -131 +13.3%
LAD ML -140 +131 -15.0%
MIL +1.5 -175 -253 +8.1%
LAD -1.5 +144 +253 -12.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -5.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Milwaukee Brewers (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +131 | Edge: 13.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01051