2026-08-14
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-14
Games: 14 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | August 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Matthew Liberatore Home: Clay Holmes
ERA: 5.15 ERA: 2.86
WHIP: 1.52 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 8.71 K/9: 7.31
BB/9: 3.4 BB/9: 3.18
FIP: 4.59 FIP: 3.45
IP: 113.7 IP: 56.7
xERA: 5.02 xERA: 4.23
xwOBA: 0.342 xwOBA: 0.317
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Clay Holmes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL CHC Lg Avg
Record 61-60 71-51
R/Game 4.37 5.20 4.48
RA/Game 4.38 4.31 4.48
OPS 0.695 0.757 0.719
wOBA 0.301 0.327 0.310
ERA 4.07 4.10 4.17
FIP 3.96 4.54 4.05
WHIP 1.34 1.26 1.30
K/9 7.69 7.74 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.499 0.585 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.18 4.36 4.23
BP FIP 4.08 4.48 4.08
BP WHIP 1.36 1.35
BP K/9 7.86 8.48
BP Quality* 46.5 50.0 46.3
BP IP 456.7 487.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Aaron Civale (37 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0203 (Temp: 1.0072 | Wind: 1.0130)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 4.3 - CHC 6.2
Simulated Avg: STL 4.3 - CHC 6.2
Win Probability: STL 33.6% - CHC 66.4%
Fair Moneyline: STL +197 / CHC -197
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 8.0: 63.2%
Under 8.0: 29.0%
STL +1.5: 47.7%
CHC -1.5: 52.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 2.2 - CHC 3.6
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.2 - CHC 3.6
F5 Win Prob: STL 29.9% - CHC 70.1% (Tie: 13.4%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +235 / CHC -235
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +167 +197 -3.8%
CHC ML -179 -197 +2.2%
STL +1.5 -137 +110 -10.1%
CHC -1.5 +114 -110 +5.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +10.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -23.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01052
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | August 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sandy Alcantara Home: Chase Burns
ERA: 3.52 ERA: 2.61
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 7.04 K/9: 10.38
BB/9: 2.31 BB/9: 3.34
FIP: 3.66 FIP: 3.27
IP: 163.7 IP: 124.0
xERA: 3.65 xERA: 3.2
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.278
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Chase Burns)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA CIN Lg Avg
Record 62-60 58-62
R/Game 4.39 4.13 4.48
RA/Game 4.30 4.78 4.48
OPS 0.730 0.702 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.304 0.310
ERA 3.98 4.51 4.17
FIP 3.83 4.53 4.05
WHIP 1.25 1.41 1.30
K/9 8.58 8.15 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.510 0.434 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.51 4.59 4.23
BP FIP 3.83 4.68 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.43
BP K/9 9.18 8.62
BP Quality* 47.4 61.6 46.3
BP IP 391.0 444.7
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (37 pitches yesterday)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
UNAVAIL: Sam Moll (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Pierce Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Mey (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 22%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0104 (Temp: 1.0175 | Wind: 0.9930)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 4.6 - CIN 4.2
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.6 - CIN 4.2
Win Probability: MIA 53.3% - CIN 46.7%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -114 / CIN +114
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 49.9%
Under 8.0: 40.9%
MIA -1.5: 37.4%
CIN +1.5: 62.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 1.9 - CIN 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.9 - CIN 2.2
F5 Win Prob: MIA 44.8% - CIN 55.2% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +123 / CIN -123
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +104 -114 +4.3%
CIN ML -112 +114 -6.1%
MIA -1.5 +167 +167 -0.1%
CIN +1.5 -204 -167 -4.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -2.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | August 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jake Bennett Home: Bubba Chandler
ERA: 3.17 ERA: 4.26
WHIP: 1.04 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 6.46 K/9: 7.97
BB/9: 1.88 BB/9: 4.8
FIP: 3.14 FIP: 4.05
IP: 76.7 IP: 116.3
xERA: 3.06 xERA: 4.12
xwOBA: 0.272 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Jake Bennett)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS PIT Lg Avg
Record 65-56 59-64
R/Game 4.45 5.02 4.48
RA/Game 3.74 4.81 4.48
OPS 0.722 0.746 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.323 0.310
ERA 3.48 4.32 4.17
FIP 3.55 3.78 4.05
WHIP 1.22 1.32 1.30
K/9 8.65 9.33 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.579 0.519 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.30 3.97 4.23
BP FIP 3.39 3.84 4.08
BP WHIP 1.25 1.35
BP K/9 9.40 9.52
BP Quality* 40.5 44.2 46.3
BP IP 324.7 444.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), calm
Weather Factor: 0.9947 (Temp: 1.0031 | Wind: 0.9916)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 4.1 - PIT 4.0
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.1 - PIT 4.0
Win Probability: BOS 51.3% - PIT 48.7%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -105 / PIT +105
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.0: 43.5%
Under 8.0: 46.9%
BOS -1.5: 34.4%
PIT +1.5: 65.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.4 - PIT 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.4 - PIT 2.1
F5 Win Prob: BOS 55.1% - PIT 44.9% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -123 / PIT +123
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML -119 -105 -3.1%
PIT ML +111 +105 +1.3%
BOS -1.5 +130 +191 -9.1%
PIT +1.5 -157 -191 +4.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -8.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | August 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sean Newcomb Home: Jackson Jobe
ERA: 2.66 ERA: 0.0
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 0.4
K/9: 8.39 K/9: 7.2
BB/9: 3.22 BB/9: 1.8
FIP: 2.71 FIP: 2.1
IP: 64.3 IP: 5.0
xERA: 3.95 xERA: 3.1
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.274
Pitcher Edge: DET (Jackson Jobe)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS DET Lg Avg
Record 62-58 60-61
R/Game 4.78 4.56 4.48
RA/Game 4.45 3.82 4.48
OPS 0.724 0.727 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.10 3.47 4.17
FIP 4.01 3.69 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.20 1.30
K/9 8.54 8.34 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.533 0.581 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.00 4.13 4.23
BP FIP 4.23 4.28 4.08
BP WHIP 1.32 1.36
BP K/9 8.06 8.21
BP Quality* 47.8 50.1 46.3
BP IP 308.3 318.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Erick Fedde (51 pitches yesterday)
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kenley Jansen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0444 (Temp: 1.0165 | Wind: 1.0274)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 4.0 - DET 4.2
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.0 - DET 4.2
Win Probability: CWS 48.4% - DET 51.6%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +107 / DET -107
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.5: 44.3%
Under 8.5: 55.7%
CWS +1.5: 65.3%
DET -1.5: 34.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 1.8 - DET 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 1.8 - DET 2.0
F5 Win Prob: CWS 46.1% - DET 53.9% (Tie: 19.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +117 / DET -117
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +120 +107 +2.9%
DET ML -129 -107 -4.7%
CWS +1.5 -175 -188 +1.7%
DET -1.5 +144 +188 -6.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +3.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Regular Season | August 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andrew Alvarez Home: Robert Stock
ERA: 3.76 ERA: 10.13
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 2.13
K/9: 8.44 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 4.15 BB/9: 5.63
FIP: 2.98 FIP: 4.6
IP: 69.3 IP: 8.0
xERA: 4.35 xERA: 5.65
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.36
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Andrew Alvarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH NYM Lg Avg
Record 60-63 53-69
R/Game 5.38 4.18 4.48
RA/Game 5.20 4.57 4.48
OPS 0.769 0.694 0.719
wOBA 0.328 0.300 0.310
ERA 4.72 4.14 4.17
FIP 4.61 3.86 4.05
WHIP 1.39 1.31 1.30
K/9 7.65 9.08 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.516 0.460 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.66 4.59 4.23
BP FIP 4.96 4.43 4.08
BP WHIP 1.54 1.44
BP K/9 8.53 9.07
BP Quality* 58.1 51.3 46.3
BP IP 467.3 221.3
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tom Cosgrove (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jefry Yan (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0019 (Temp: 1.0118 | Wind: 0.9902)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 6.2 - NYM 4.3
Simulated Avg: WSH 6.2 - NYM 4.3
Win Probability: WSH 66.4% - NYM 33.6%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -198 / NYM +198
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 8.5: 63.2%
Under 8.5: 36.8%
WSH +1.5: 79.0%
NYM -1.5: 21.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 3.7 - NYM 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 3.7 - NYM 2.0
F5 Win Prob: WSH 73.3% - NYM 26.7% (Tie: 13.2%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -275 / NYM +275
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +105 -198 +17.6%
NYM ML -113 +198 -19.5%
WSH +1.5 -198 -377 +12.6%
NYM -1.5 +162 +377 -17.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +10.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -15.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +105 | Edge: 17.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01053
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | August 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael King Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 3.37 ERA: 3.55
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 7.92 K/9: 11.51
BB/9: 3.63 BB/9: 2.55
FIP: 3.98 FIP: 3.37
IP: 136.3 IP: 144.7
xERA: 4.41 xERA: 3.73
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.299
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Gavin Williams)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD CLE Lg Avg
Record 65-57 59-63
R/Game 4.28 3.96 4.48
RA/Game 4.27 4.20 4.48
OPS 0.702 0.681 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.297 0.310
ERA 4.10 3.83 4.17
FIP 4.07 3.79 4.05
WHIP 1.32 1.27 1.30
K/9 8.27 9.43 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.501 0.472 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.83 3.84 4.23
BP FIP 2.97 3.66 4.08
BP WHIP 1.15 1.33
BP K/9 10.93 9.97
BP Quality* 34.4 44.2 46.3
BP IP 257.7 410.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Franco Aleman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0117 (Temp: 1.0069 | Wind: 1.0047)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.7 - CLE 3.4
Simulated Avg: SD 3.7 - CLE 3.4
Win Probability: SD 52.6% - CLE 47.4%
Fair Moneyline: SD -111 / CLE +111
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 7.5: 42.9%
Under 7.5: 57.1%
SD +1.5: 70.9%
CLE -1.5: 29.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.0 - CLE 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.0 - CLE 2.1
F5 Win Prob: SD 48.0% - CLE 52.0% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +109 / CLE -109
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +119 -111 +6.9%
CLE ML -128 +111 -8.7%
SD +1.5 -195 -244 +4.8%
CLE -1.5 +160 +244 -9.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -9.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +4.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | August 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Steven Matz
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL TB Lg Avg
Record 58-63 74-46
R/Game 4.49 4.58 4.48
RA/Game 4.79 4.06 4.48
OPS 0.715 0.739 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.24 3.70 4.17
FIP 4.00 3.93 4.05
WHIP 1.35 1.14 1.30
K/9 8.03 8.22 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.471 0.555 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.48 3.70 4.23
BP FIP 3.99 4.11 4.08
BP WHIP 1.34 1.15
BP K/9 8.65 8.65
BP Quality* 46.6 42.8 46.3
BP IP 401.7 379.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 4.7 - TB 4.5
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.7 - TB 4.5
Win Probability: BAL 51.7% - TB 48.3%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -107 / TB +107
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.0: 53.1%
Under 8.0: 37.8%
BAL +1.5: 67.4%
TB -1.5: 32.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 2.9 - TB 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.9 - TB 2.5
F5 Win Prob: BAL 57.2% - TB 42.8% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -134 / TB +134
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML +150 -107 +11.7%
TB ML -161 +107 -13.4%
BAL +1.5 -156 -207 +6.5%
TB -1.5 +129 +207 -11.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +0.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -14.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Baltimore Orioles (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +150 | Edge: 11.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01054
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | August 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brandon Pfaadt Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI ATL Lg Avg
Record 64-58 73-48
R/Game 4.52 4.88 4.48
RA/Game 4.43 3.86 4.48
OPS 0.712 0.734 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.315 0.310
ERA 4.12 3.60 4.17
FIP 4.24 4.00 4.05
WHIP 1.29 1.24 1.30
K/9 6.87 8.69 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.509 0.606 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.74 3.56 4.23
BP FIP 3.66 3.69 4.08
BP WHIP 1.19 1.19
BP K/9 7.73 9.18
BP Quality* 41.5 43.8 46.3
BP IP 385.3 373.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0407 (Temp: 1.0279 | Wind: 1.0125)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.6 - ATL 4.7
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.6 - ATL 4.7
Win Probability: ARI 49.0% - ATL 51.0%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +104 / ATL -104
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.0: 54.3%
Under 8.0: 36.6%
ARI +1.5: 64.8%
ATL -1.5: 35.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.6 - ATL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.6 - ATL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ARI 50.9% - ATL 49.1% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -104 / ATL +104
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML +179 +104 +13.2%
ATL ML -193 -104 -14.9%
ARI +1.5 -126 -184 +9.1%
ATL -1.5 +104 +184 -13.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +1.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -15.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Arizona Diamondbacks (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +179 | Edge: 13.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01055
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | August 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gerrit Cole Home: Shane Bieber
ERA: 3.35 ERA: 5.48
WHIP: 1.08 WHIP: 1.66
K/9: 9.71 K/9: 6.75
BB/9: 1.9 BB/9: 4.85
FIP: 3.35 FIP: 5.96
IP: 80.7 IP: 42.7
xERA: 3.44 xERA: 7.24
xwOBA: 0.288 xwOBA: 0.399
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Gerrit Cole)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY TOR Lg Avg
Record 68-53 59-64
R/Game 4.50 3.92 4.48
RA/Game 3.77 4.41 4.48
OPS 0.721 0.678 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.293 0.310
ERA 3.28 4.01 4.17
FIP 3.57 3.92 4.05
WHIP 1.18 1.32 1.30
K/9 9.08 8.82 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.581 0.446 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.73 3.56 4.23
BP FIP 3.72 3.91 4.08
BP WHIP 1.16 1.39
BP K/9 8.45 7.68
BP Quality* 44.2 48.4 46.3
BP IP 365.3 227.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yerry De los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Chase Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Spencer Miles (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0062 (Temp: 1.0044 | Wind: 1.0018)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 5.8 - TOR 3.5
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.9 - TOR 3.5
Win Probability: NYY 71.2% - TOR 28.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -247 / TOR +247
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 7.5: 63.0%
Under 7.5: 37.0%
NYY -1.5: 56.6%
TOR +1.5: 43.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 3.8 - TOR 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 3.8 - TOR 1.8
F5 Win Prob: NYY 77.1% - TOR 22.9% (Tie: 12.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -336 / TOR +336
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -142 -247 +12.5%
TOR ML +132 +247 -14.3%
NYY -1.5 +112 -130 +9.4%
TOR +1.5 -135 +130 -14.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +10.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -15.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] New York Yankees (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -142 | Edge: 12.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01056
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | August 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: George Kirby Home: Peter Lambert
ERA: 3.68 ERA: 3.09
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 7.64 K/9: 8.79
BB/9: 1.91 BB/9: 3.48
FIP: 3.62 FIP: 3.68
IP: 132.0 IP: 113.7
xERA: 3.87 xERA: 3.44
xwOBA: 0.304 xwOBA: 0.288
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA HOU Lg Avg
Record 57-65 62-60
R/Game 3.84 4.58 4.48
RA/Game 4.06 4.80 4.48
OPS 0.681 0.730 0.719
wOBA 0.297 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.81 4.54 4.17
FIP 3.61 4.51 4.05
WHIP 1.21 1.35 1.30
K/9 8.66 8.83 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.475 0.478 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.70 4.15 4.23
BP FIP 3.84 4.36 4.08
BP WHIP 1.32 1.28
BP K/9 9.06 9.12
BP Quality* 47.6 49.6 46.3
BP IP 357.7 425.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9929 (Temp: 1.0183 | Wind: 0.9750)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 3.5 - HOU 4.4
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.5 - HOU 4.4
Win Probability: SEA 39.9% - HOU 60.1%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +151 / HOU -151
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 8.0: 40.9%
Under 8.0: 49.4%
SEA +1.5: 57.8%
HOU -1.5: 42.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 1.7 - HOU 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 1.7 - HOU 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SEA 39.6% - HOU 60.4% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +152 / HOU -152
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML +111 +151 -7.5%
HOU ML -119 -151 +5.8%
SEA +1.5 -198 -137 -8.6%
HOU -1.5 +162 +137 +4.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -11.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -3.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | August 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Seth Lugo Home: Grayson Rodriguez
ERA: 4.41 ERA: 7.2
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.62
K/9: 6.95 K/9: 8.18
BB/9: 3.07 BB/9: 4.25
FIP: 4.12 FIP: 4.83
IP: 134.7 IP: 55.0
xERA: 5.26 xERA: 6.8
xwOBA: 0.349 xwOBA: 0.389
Pitcher Edge: KC (Seth Lugo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC LAA Lg Avg
Record 49-73 48-74
R/Game 4.12 4.10 4.48
RA/Game 5.06 4.78 4.48
OPS 0.705 0.688 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.84 4.43 4.17
FIP 4.59 4.09 4.05
WHIP 1.43 1.36 1.30
K/9 7.57 9.14 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.408 0.430 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.69 4.65 4.23
BP FIP 5.26 4.37 4.08
BP WHIP 1.59 1.40
BP K/9 7.71 8.95
BP Quality* 58.7 52.4 46.3
BP IP 501.0 303.7
Bullpen Edge: LAA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9829 (Temp: 1.0021 | Wind: 0.9808)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 5.3 - LAA 4.8
Simulated Avg: KC 5.3 - LAA 4.8
Win Probability: KC 54.5% - LAA 45.5%
Fair Moneyline: KC -120 / LAA +120
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 8.5: 60.8%
Under 8.5: 39.2%
KC -1.5: 39.8%
LAA +1.5: 60.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 3.3 - LAA 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 3.3 - LAA 2.5
F5 Win Prob: KC 61.3% - LAA 38.7% (Tie: 13.8%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -158 / LAA +158
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML -109 -120 +2.3%
LAA ML +101 +120 -4.2%
KC -1.5 +141 +151 -1.7%
LAA +1.5 -171 -151 -2.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +8.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -13.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.4%
Fair ML: -155 | Kelly: 4.39%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01057
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Athletics
Regular Season | August 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kumar Rocker Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX ATH Lg Avg
Record 60-62 47-74
R/Game 4.07 4.33 4.48
RA/Game 4.41 5.82 4.48
OPS 0.711 0.715 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.28 5.51 4.17
FIP 3.99 4.85 4.05
WHIP 1.29 1.51 1.30
K/9 8.62 8.59 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.464 0.368 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.43 5.95 4.23
BP FIP 4.18 4.76 4.08
BP WHIP 1.38 1.62
BP K/9 7.95 9.18
BP Quality* 55.3 57.2 46.3
BP IP 406.3 445.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Ben Peoples (B2B, 30 pitches)
TIRED: Jordan Montgomery (52 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Cole Winn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9723 (Temp: 0.9893 | Wind: 0.9828)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 4.4 - ATH 5.0
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.4 - ATH 5.0
Win Probability: TEX 44.7% - ATH 55.3%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +124 / ATH -124
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 9.5: 45.8%
Under 9.5: 54.2%
TEX -1.5: 29.7%
ATH +1.5: 70.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.2 - ATH 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.2 - ATH 2.6
F5 Win Prob: TEX 43.8% - ATH 56.2% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +128 / ATH -128
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -112 +124 -8.2%
ATH ML +104 -124 +6.3%
TEX -1.5 +144 +237 -11.3%
ATH +1.5 -175 -237 +6.7%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -6.6%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +1.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | August 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Robert Gasser Home: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
ERA: 4.57 ERA: 2.65
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 0.89
K/9: 8.19 K/9: 8.2
BB/9: 2.42 BB/9: 2.07
FIP: 4.22 FIP: 3.37
IP: 67.0 IP: 139.3
xERA: 4.18 xERA: 3.15
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.276
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Yoshinobu Yamamoto)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL LAD Lg Avg
Record 75-47 73-49
R/Game 4.89 5.00 4.48
RA/Game 3.82 3.84 4.48
OPS 0.730 0.766 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.327 0.310
ERA 3.53 3.71 4.17
FIP 3.47 3.87 4.05
WHIP 1.16 1.17 1.30
K/9 9.78 9.09 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.611 0.618 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.65 4.19 4.23
BP FIP 3.57 3.92 4.08
BP WHIP 1.28 1.31
BP K/9 8.85 9.80
BP Quality* 44.4 49.4 46.3
BP IP 417.0 391.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9896 (Temp: 0.9966 | Wind: 0.9929)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 4.0 - LAD 4.9
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.0 - LAD 4.9
Win Probability: MIL 41.5% - LAD 58.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIL +141 / LAD -141
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 7.5: 60.3%
Under 7.5: 39.7%
MIL +1.5: 57.9%
LAD -1.5: 42.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 1.9 - LAD 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 1.9 - LAD 2.8
F5 Win Prob: MIL 36.0% - LAD 64.0% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +178 / LAD -178
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML +163 +141 +3.5%
LAD ML -176 -141 -5.3%
MIL +1.5 -142 -137 -0.8%
LAD -1.5 +118 +137 -3.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +7.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -12.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.3% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.9%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.15%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01058
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | August 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kyle Freeland Home: Landen Roupp
ERA: 6.63 ERA: 4.22
WHIP: 1.5 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 7.67 K/9: 8.95
BB/9: 2.08 BB/9: 4.15
FIP: 4.51 FIP: 3.44
IP: 112.7 IP: 123.7
xERA: 5.22 xERA: 3.52
xwOBA: 0.348 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: SF (Landen Roupp)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL SF Lg Avg
Record 48-73 50-71
R/Game 4.77 4.07 4.48
RA/Game 5.73 4.60 4.48
OPS 0.744 0.712 0.719
wOBA 0.319 0.304 0.310
ERA 5.47 4.31 4.17
FIP 4.71 4.03 4.05
WHIP 1.52 1.35 1.30
K/9 7.03 7.68 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.417 0.444 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.16 4.76 4.23
BP FIP 4.39 4.37 4.08
BP WHIP 1.52 1.49
BP K/9 7.34 6.90
BP Quality* 56.9 52.5 46.3
BP IP 293.0 315.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jordan Romano (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Reiver Sanmartin (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (60°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9678 (Temp: 0.9856 | Wind: 0.9820)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.2 - SF 4.8
Simulated Avg: COL 4.2 - SF 4.8
Win Probability: COL 44.4% - SF 55.6%
Fair Moneyline: COL +125 / SF -125
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 7.5: 60.8%
Under 7.5: 39.2%
COL +1.5: 60.6%
SF -1.5: 39.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.1 - SF 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.1 - SF 2.7
F5 Win Prob: COL 40.9% - SF 59.1% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +145 / SF -145
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +116 +125 -1.9%
SF ML -124 -125 +0.2%
COL +1.5 -198 -154 -5.9%
SF -1.5 +162 +154 +1.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +8.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -13.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.4%
Fair ML: -155 | Kelly: 4.41%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01059