2026-08-15
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-15
Games: 15 | Plays: 2
======================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | August 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Anthony Kay Home: Troy Melton
ERA: 3.96 ERA: 1.46
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 0.9
K/9: 7.29 K/9: 7.76
BB/9: 3.34 BB/9: 2.7
FIP: 4.27 FIP: 3.58
IP: 116.0 IP: 80.0
xERA: 5.08 xERA: 3.06
xwOBA: 0.344 xwOBA: 0.272
Pitcher Edge: DET (Troy Melton)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS DET Lg Avg
Record 63-58 60-62
R/Game 4.82 4.57 4.48
RA/Game 4.45 3.86 4.48
OPS 0.728 0.727 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.11 3.52 4.17
FIP 4.02 3.73 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.21 1.30
K/9 8.53 8.32 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.536 0.576 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.11 4.27 4.22
BP FIP 4.23 4.39 4.08
BP WHIP 1.35 1.38
BP K/9 8.08 8.15
BP Quality* 49.9 51.3 46.3
BP IP 319.7 327.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Urquidy (52 pitches yesterday)
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Enmanuel De Jesus (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ty Madden (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Randal Grichuk
Randal Grichuk Unknown OPS: 0.818 (180 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.9% of full strength
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Riley Greene, Max Clark, Colt Keith
Riley Greene Outfielder OPS: 0.816 (422 AB)
Max Clark Outfielder OPS: 0.762 (53 AB)
Colt Keith Third Base OPS: 0.729 (321 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0017 (Temp: 1.0174 | Wind: 0.9845)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 3.9 - DET 4.6
Simulated Avg: CWS 3.9 - DET 4.6
Win Probability: CWS 42.7% - DET 57.3%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +134 / DET -134
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.5: 56.7%
Under 7.5: 43.3%
CWS +1.5: 59.7%
DET -1.5: 40.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 1.8 - DET 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 1.8 - DET 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CWS 36.4% - DET 63.6% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +175 / DET -175
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +126 +134 -1.5%
DET ML -135 -134 -0.1%
CWS +1.5 -186 -148 -5.3%
DET -1.5 +153 +148 +0.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +4.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -9.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | August 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael McGreevy Home: Matthew Boyd
ERA: 3.64 ERA: 3.5
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 6.07 K/9: 7.46
BB/9: 2.29 BB/9: 2.6
FIP: 4.27 FIP: 3.78
IP: 126.0 IP: 79.7
xERA: 5.68 xERA: 4.69
xwOBA: 0.361 xwOBA: 0.332
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Matthew Boyd)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL CHC Lg Avg
Record 61-61 72-51
R/Game 4.34 5.18 4.48
RA/Game 4.37 4.28 4.48
OPS 0.692 0.756 0.719
wOBA 0.300 0.327 0.310
ERA 4.07 4.07 4.17
FIP 3.96 4.52 4.05
WHIP 1.34 1.25 1.30
K/9 7.68 7.72 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.497 0.587 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.17 4.34 4.22
BP FIP 4.11 4.47 4.08
BP WHIP 1.36 1.35
BP K/9 7.82 8.50
BP Quality* 48.1 48.4 46.3
BP IP 459.3 489.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Peter Strzelecki (36 pitches yesterday)
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 20%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9994 (Temp: 1.0071 | Wind: 0.9924)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.4 - CHC 5.9
Simulated Avg: STL 4.4 - CHC 5.9
Win Probability: STL 36.6% - CHC 63.4%
Fair Moneyline: STL +173 / CHC -173
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.0: 53.9%
Under 9.0: 37.8%
STL +1.5: 51.2%
CHC -1.5: 48.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.4 - CHC 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.4 - CHC 3.3
F5 Win Prob: STL 36.7% - CHC 63.3% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +172 / CHC -172
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +163 +173 -1.5%
CHC ML -176 -173 -0.3%
STL +1.5 -131 -105 -5.5%
CHC -1.5 +109 +105 +1.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +1.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -14.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | August 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cam Schlittler Home: Braydon Fisher
ERA: 2.21 ERA: 3.54
WHIP: 0.93 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 11.17 K/9: 8.41
BB/9: 1.9 BB/9: 4.87
FIP: 2.49 FIP: 4.13
IP: 146.7 IP: 61.0
xERA: 2.92 xERA: 3.81
xwOBA: 0.266 xwOBA: 0.302
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY TOR Lg Avg
Record 68-54 60-64
R/Game 4.48 3.91 4.48
RA/Game 3.76 4.39 4.48
OPS 0.719 0.678 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.293 0.310
ERA 3.27 3.99 4.17
FIP 3.57 3.92 4.05
WHIP 1.18 1.32 1.30
K/9 9.08 8.79 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.579 0.448 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.74 3.53 4.22
BP FIP 3.74 3.90 4.08
BP WHIP 1.16 1.38
BP K/9 8.48 7.60
BP Quality* 42.8 48.2 46.3
BP IP 367.3 229.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yerry De los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0216 (Temp: 1.0021 | Wind: 1.0195)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.4 - TOR 3.0
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.4 - TOR 3.0
Win Probability: NYY 64.3% - TOR 35.7%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -180 / TOR +180
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.5: 45.9%
Under 7.5: 54.1%
NYY -1.5: 46.4%
TOR +1.5: 53.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.3 - TOR 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.4 - TOR 1.4
F5 Win Prob: NYY 69.3% - TOR 30.6% (Tie: 19.0%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -226 / TOR +226
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -165 -180 +2.1%
TOR ML +153 +180 -3.8%
NYY -1.5 +101 +116 -3.4%
TOR +1.5 -122 -116 -1.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -6.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +1.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | August 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael Lorenzen Home: Logan Webb
ERA: 6.83 ERA: 3.59
WHIP: 1.88 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 6.51 K/9: 6.97
BB/9: 3.7 BB/9: 2.17
FIP: 4.97 FIP: 3.15
IP: 112.0 IP: 133.0
xERA: 6.1 xERA: 3.73
xwOBA: 0.372 xwOBA: 0.299
Pitcher Edge: SF (Logan Webb)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL SF Lg Avg
Record 49-73 50-72
R/Game 4.77 4.06 4.48
RA/Game 5.70 4.61 4.48
OPS 0.744 0.712 0.719
wOBA 0.319 0.304 0.310
ERA 5.44 4.32 4.17
FIP 4.71 4.04 4.05
WHIP 1.51 1.35 1.30
K/9 6.99 7.70 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.420 0.442 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.17 4.74 4.22
BP FIP 4.39 4.36 4.08
BP WHIP 1.52 1.49
BP K/9 7.32 6.97
BP Quality* 54.0 53.9 46.3
BP IP 294.0 319.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Trent Harris (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Reiver Sanmartin (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9696 (Temp: 0.9930 | Wind: 0.9764)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.2 - SF 5.0
Simulated Avg: COL 4.2 - SF 5.0
Win Probability: COL 42.0% - SF 58.0%
Fair Moneyline: COL +138 / SF -138
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 7.5: 61.9%
Under 7.5: 38.1%
COL +1.5: 58.1%
SF -1.5: 41.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.0 - SF 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.0 - SF 3.0
F5 Win Prob: COL 34.8% - SF 65.2% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +188 / SF -188
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +151 +138 +2.1%
SF ML -162 -138 -3.8%
COL +1.5 -149 -139 -1.7%
SF -1.5 +124 +139 -2.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +9.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -14.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.5%
Fair ML: -162 | Kelly: 4.98%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01060
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Regular Season | August 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brad Lord Home: Sean Manaea
ERA: 3.79 ERA: 4.13
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 8.17 K/9: 9.11
BB/9: 3.06 BB/9: 3.01
FIP: 3.78 FIP: 3.82
IP: 61.7 IP: 104.7
xERA: 4.23 xERA: 4.47
xwOBA: 0.317 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH NYM Lg Avg
Record 60-64 54-69
R/Game 5.35 4.18 4.48
RA/Game 5.19 4.54 4.48
OPS 0.766 0.694 0.719
wOBA 0.328 0.300 0.310
ERA 4.72 4.10 4.17
FIP 4.62 3.85 4.05
WHIP 1.38 1.31 1.30
K/9 7.66 9.08 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.514 0.462 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.67 4.31 4.22
BP FIP 4.97 4.39 4.08
BP WHIP 1.55 1.40
BP K/9 8.57 9.04
BP Quality* 58.3 48.3 46.3
BP IP 469.7 217.0
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0493 (Temp: 1.0157 | Wind: 1.0331)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 5.4 - NYM 4.7
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.4 - NYM 4.6
Win Probability: WSH 56.7% - NYM 43.3%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -131 / NYM +131
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 8.0: 60.3%
Under 8.0: 31.5%
WSH +1.5: 70.8%
NYM -1.5: 29.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 3.0 - NYM 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 3.0 - NYM 2.2
F5 Win Prob: WSH 61.4% - NYM 38.6% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -159 / NYM +159
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +126 -131 +12.4%
NYM ML -135 +131 -14.1%
WSH +1.5 -181 -243 +6.4%
NYM -1.5 +149 +243 -11.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +7.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -20.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +126 | Edge: 12.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01061
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | August 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kyle Bradish Home: Ian Seymour
ERA: 3.69 ERA: 4.08
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 8.57 K/9: 10.56
BB/9: 3.83 BB/9: 2.99
FIP: 3.8 FIP: 3.62
IP: 127.0 IP: 90.3
xERA: 3.97 xERA: 3.52
xwOBA: 0.308 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL TB Lg Avg
Record 59-63 74-47
R/Game 4.50 4.58 4.48
RA/Game 4.79 4.07 4.48
OPS 0.716 0.738 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.24 3.72 4.17
FIP 4.00 3.94 4.05
WHIP 1.35 1.15 1.30
K/9 8.01 8.20 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.472 0.553 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.51 3.76 4.22
BP FIP 3.99 4.16 4.08
BP WHIP 1.35 1.17
BP K/9 8.64 8.59
BP Quality* 48.3 46.4 46.3
BP IP 405.3 387.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cam Sanders (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Chris Roycroft (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jesse Scholtens (64 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 4.0 - TB 4.3
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.0 - TB 4.3
Win Probability: BAL 46.1% - TB 53.9%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +117 / TB -117
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 7.5: 54.8%
Under 7.5: 45.2%
BAL +1.5: 63.4%
TB -1.5: 36.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 2.1 - TB 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.1 - TB 2.3
F5 Win Prob: BAL 47.2% - TB 52.8% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +112 / TB -112
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML +136 +117 +3.7%
TB ML -146 -117 -5.4%
BAL +1.5 -181 -173 -1.0%
TB -1.5 +149 +173 -3.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +2.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -7.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | August 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryan Gusto Home: Brady Singer
ERA: 4.78 ERA: 4.66
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 7.9 K/9: 7.52
BB/9: 2.57 BB/9: 3.01
FIP: 3.79 FIP: 4.82
IP: 49.0 IP: 119.7
xERA: 4.32 xERA: 5.01
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Ryan Gusto)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA CIN Lg Avg
Record 62-61 59-62
R/Game 4.35 4.11 4.48
RA/Game 4.27 4.74 4.48
OPS 0.726 0.701 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.303 0.310
ERA 3.96 4.47 4.17
FIP 3.83 4.50 4.05
WHIP 1.25 1.40 1.30
K/9 8.54 8.17 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.509 0.435 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.50 4.57 4.22
BP FIP 3.82 4.66 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.42
BP K/9 9.18 8.64
BP Quality* 45.9 55.3 46.3
BP IP 392.0 446.7
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 16%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0086 (Temp: 1.0240 | Wind: 0.9850)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 5.4 - CIN 4.5
Simulated Avg: MIA 5.4 - CIN 4.5
Win Probability: MIA 57.8% - CIN 42.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -137 / CIN +137
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 9.0: 50.7%
Under 9.0: 40.9%
MIA -1.5: 43.0%
CIN +1.5: 57.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 3.0 - CIN 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 3.0 - CIN 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIA 57.6% - CIN 42.4% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -136 / CIN +136
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML -102 -137 +7.3%
CIN ML -105 +137 -9.0%
MIA -1.5 +146 +133 +2.3%
CIN +1.5 -177 -133 -6.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -1.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -11.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | August 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Joey Cantillo
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD CLE Lg Avg
Record 66-57 59-64
R/Game 4.30 3.97 4.48
RA/Game 4.28 4.23 4.48
OPS 0.705 0.683 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.297 0.310
ERA 4.09 3.86 4.17
FIP 4.08 3.81 4.05
WHIP 1.32 1.28 1.30
K/9 8.27 9.42 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.503 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.84 3.84 4.22
BP FIP 2.97 3.65 4.08
BP WHIP 1.15 1.33
BP K/9 10.92 9.92
BP Quality* 37.5 48.6 46.3
BP IP 259.7 414.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jeremiah Estrada (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Franco Aleman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Yoho (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0040 (Temp: 1.0129 | Wind: 0.9913)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 4.1 - CLE 3.6
Simulated Avg: SD 4.1 - CLE 3.6
Win Probability: SD 54.7% - CLE 45.3%
Fair Moneyline: SD -121 / CLE +121
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 8.5: 38.9%
Under 8.5: 61.1%
SD -1.5: 37.0%
CLE +1.5: 63.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.2 - CLE 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.2 - CLE 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SD 50.3% - CLE 49.7% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: SD -101 / CLE +101
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +108 -121 +6.6%
CLE ML -116 +121 -8.4%
SD -1.5 +166 +170 -0.6%
CLE +1.5 -203 -170 -4.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -13.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +8.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.1% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.7%
Fair ML: -157 | Kelly: 4.58%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01062
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | August 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Emerson Hancock Home: Hayden Wesneski
ERA: 3.35 ERA: 3.86
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 8.26 K/9: 5.79
BB/9: 2.23 BB/9: 2.89
FIP: 3.62 FIP: 4.17
IP: 121.0 IP: 18.7
xERA: 4.06 xERA: 5.43
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.354
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Emerson Hancock)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA HOU Lg Avg
Record 57-66 63-60
R/Game 3.87 4.63 4.48
RA/Game 4.11 4.82 4.48
OPS 0.683 0.731 0.719
wOBA 0.298 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.85 4.55 4.17
FIP 3.62 4.49 4.05
WHIP 1.21 1.35 1.30
K/9 8.64 8.84 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.481 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.75 4.18 4.22
BP FIP 3.84 4.34 4.08
BP WHIP 1.32 1.29
BP K/9 9.06 9.12
BP Quality* 47.7 52.7 46.3
BP IP 362.7 430.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9961 (Temp: 1.0251 | Wind: 0.9718)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 4.0 - HOU 4.5
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.0 - HOU 4.5
Win Probability: SEA 45.4% - HOU 54.6%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +120 / HOU -120
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.5: 47.1%
Under 8.5: 52.9%
SEA +1.5: 62.1%
HOU -1.5: 37.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.2 - HOU 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.2 - HOU 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SEA 47.1% - HOU 52.9% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +112 / HOU -112
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML +111 +120 -2.0%
HOU ML -119 -120 +0.3%
SEA +1.5 -194 -164 -3.8%
HOU -1.5 +159 +164 -0.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -5.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +0.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | August 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jesús Luzardo Home: Connor Prielipp
ERA: 3.32 ERA: 4.79
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 11.03 K/9: 9.58
BB/9: 2.76 BB/9: 3.48
FIP: 2.65 FIP: 3.86
IP: 143.7 IP: 82.7
xERA: 2.85 xERA: 4.2
xwOBA: 0.263 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI MIN Lg Avg
Record 65-58 60-63
R/Game 4.41 4.65 4.48
RA/Game 4.41 4.96 4.48
OPS 0.709 0.725 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.18 4.62 4.17
FIP 3.64 4.20 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.38 1.30
K/9 9.97 8.41 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.499 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.25 4.49 4.22
BP FIP 3.55 3.98 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.43
BP K/9 10.06 8.69
BP Quality* 44.9 47.4 46.3
BP IP 427.7 539.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 28%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9931 (Temp: 1.0133 | Wind: 0.9800)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.4 - MIN 3.8
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.4 - MIN 3.8
Win Probability: PHI 55.7% - MIN 44.3%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -126 / MIN +126
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.0: 44.9%
Under 8.0: 45.7%
PHI -1.5: 38.8%
MIN +1.5: 61.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.5 - MIN 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.5 - MIN 1.8
F5 Win Prob: PHI 62.0% - MIN 38.0% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -163 / MIN +163
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -134 -126 -1.6%
MIN ML +125 +126 -0.1%
PHI -1.5 +118 +158 -7.1%
MIN +1.5 -142 -158 +2.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -7.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -6.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | August 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sonny Gray Home: Jared Jones
ERA: 2.79 ERA: 5.03
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 7.88 K/9: 9.92
BB/9: 2.36 BB/9: 2.9
FIP: 3.48 FIP: 4.07
IP: 125.7 IP: 59.0
xERA: 3.62 xERA: 3.62
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.295
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Sonny Gray)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS PIT Lg Avg
Record 65-57 60-64
R/Game 4.44 5.04 4.48
RA/Game 3.77 4.81 4.48
OPS 0.721 0.747 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.324 0.310
ERA 3.51 4.32 4.17
FIP 3.55 3.77 4.05
WHIP 1.22 1.32 1.30
K/9 8.65 9.34 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.574 0.522 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.27 3.91 4.22
BP FIP 3.39 3.82 4.08
BP WHIP 1.25 1.34
BP K/9 9.31 9.54
BP Quality* 40.4 46.9 46.3
BP IP 327.7 441.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Alec Gamboa (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 3 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0194 (Temp: 1.0087 | Wind: 1.0106)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 4.4 - PIT 4.3
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.4 - PIT 4.3
Win Probability: BOS 50.9% - PIT 49.1%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -104 / PIT +104
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 7.5: 57.6%
Under 7.5: 42.4%
BOS -1.5: 34.7%
PIT +1.5: 65.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.4 - PIT 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.4 - PIT 2.3
F5 Win Prob: BOS 53.0% - PIT 47.0% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -113 / PIT +113
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -120 -104 -3.7%
PIT ML +112 +104 +2.0%
BOS -1.5 +134 +188 -8.1%
PIT +1.5 -162 -188 +3.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +5.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -10.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | August 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Eduardo Rodriguez Home: Grant Holmes
ERA: 2.7 ERA: 3.47
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 6.34 K/9: 7.42
BB/9: 2.95 BB/9: 3.79
FIP: 3.85 FIP: 4.77
IP: 143.3 IP: 114.0
xERA: 4.78 xERA: 4.75
xwOBA: 0.335 xwOBA: 0.334
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Eduardo Rodriguez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI ATL Lg Avg
Record 65-58 73-49
R/Game 4.50 4.84 4.48
RA/Game 4.40 3.84 4.48
OPS 0.713 0.731 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.08 3.59 4.17
FIP 4.22 3.98 4.05
WHIP 1.28 1.24 1.30
K/9 6.91 8.71 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.511 0.604 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.72 3.56 4.22
BP FIP 3.63 3.72 4.08
BP WHIP 1.18 1.20
BP K/9 7.78 9.15
BP Quality* 42.7 42.5 46.3
BP IP 387.3 376.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 16%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0401 (Temp: 1.0263 | Wind: 1.0135)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.7 - ATL 4.9
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.7 - ATL 4.9
Win Probability: ARI 48.3% - ATL 51.7%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +107 / ATL -107
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 9.0: 47.5%
Under 9.0: 43.7%
ARI +1.5: 63.9%
ATL -1.5: 36.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.8 - ATL 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.8 - ATL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: ARI 51.7% - ATL 48.2% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -107 / ATL +107
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML +119 +107 +2.6%
ATL ML -127 -107 -4.3%
ARI +1.5 -183 -177 -0.8%
ATL -1.5 +151 +177 -3.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -4.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -8.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | August 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jacob Misiorowski Home: Justin Wrobleski
ERA: 1.76 ERA: 3.44
WHIP: 0.74 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 13.8 K/9: 7.03
BB/9: 2.03 BB/9: 2.02
FIP: 1.98 FIP: 4.05
IP: 133.0 IP: 120.3
xERA: 1.93 xERA: 4.63
xwOBA: 0.216 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL LAD Lg Avg
Record 75-48 74-49
R/Game 4.86 4.98 4.48
RA/Game 3.81 3.82 4.48
OPS 0.729 0.766 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.327 0.310
ERA 3.53 3.69 4.17
FIP 3.48 3.85 4.05
WHIP 1.16 1.16 1.30
K/9 9.79 9.11 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.609 0.619 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.63 4.15 4.22
BP FIP 3.56 3.91 4.08
BP WHIP 1.28 1.31
BP K/9 8.88 9.79
BP Quality* 44.3 49.3 46.3
BP IP 418.7 394.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Edwin Díaz (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9980 (Temp: 1.0069 | Wind: 0.9912)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 4.7 - LAD 3.4
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.7 - LAD 3.4
Win Probability: MIL 63.1% - LAD 36.9%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -171 / LAD +171
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.5: 52.3%
Under 7.5: 47.7%
MIL -1.5: 45.9%
LAD +1.5: 54.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.5 - LAD 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.5 - LAD 1.4
F5 Win Prob: MIL 72.4% - LAD 27.6% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -262 / LAD +262
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -123 -171 +7.9%
LAD ML +114 +171 -9.8%
MIL -1.5 +130 +118 +2.5%
LAD +1.5 -157 -118 -7.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -0.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -4.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | August 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Randy Dobnak Home: Reid Detmers
ERA: 2.0 ERA: 4.0
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 4.75 K/9: 10.4
BB/9: 3.5 BB/9: 2.87
FIP: 3.93 FIP: 3.38
IP: 36.0 IP: 135.0
xERA: 4.78 xERA: 3.49
xwOBA: 0.335 xwOBA: 0.29
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Reid Detmers)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC LAA Lg Avg
Record 50-73 48-75
R/Game 4.15 4.11 4.48
RA/Game 5.07 4.80 4.48
OPS 0.706 0.688 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.85 4.45 4.17
FIP 4.57 4.10 4.05
WHIP 1.42 1.37 1.30
K/9 7.58 9.15 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.409 0.430 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.66 4.69 4.22
BP FIP 5.25 4.37 4.08
BP WHIP 1.58 1.41
BP K/9 7.73 8.95
BP Quality* 60.0 55.6 46.3
BP IP 505.3 308.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jose Cuas (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Sammy Peralta (B2B, 39 pitches)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9838 (Temp: 1.0026 | Wind: 0.9813)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.0 - LAA 4.4
Simulated Avg: KC 4.0 - LAA 4.4
Win Probability: KC 46.0% - LAA 54.0%
Fair Moneyline: KC +118 / LAA -118
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.0: 46.8%
Under 8.0: 43.7%
KC +1.5: 62.9%
LAA -1.5: 37.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 1.9 - LAA 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.0 - LAA 2.0
F5 Win Prob: KC 48.4% - LAA 51.6% (Tie: 19.0%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +107 / LAA -107
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +138 +118 +3.9%
LAA ML -148 -118 -5.6%
KC +1.5 -163 -169 +0.9%
LAA -1.5 +135 +169 -5.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Athletics
Regular Season | August 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: MacKenzie Gore Home: J.T. Ginn
ERA: 4.43 ERA: 3.41
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 10.01 K/9: 7.94
BB/9: 3.29 BB/9: 3.93
FIP: 3.62 FIP: 4.04
IP: 134.0 IP: 121.3
xERA: 3.78 xERA: 4.0
xwOBA: 0.301 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: TEX (MacKenzie Gore)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX ATH Lg Avg
Record 60-63 48-74
R/Game 4.07 4.36 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 5.80 4.48
OPS 0.709 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.31 5.48 4.17
FIP 4.01 4.86 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.50 1.30
K/9 8.62 8.56 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.460 0.373 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.44 5.90 4.22
BP FIP 4.21 4.74 4.08
BP WHIP 1.37 1.61
BP K/9 7.99 9.19
BP Quality* 55.3 58.3 46.3
BP IP 409.0 448.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Winn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ben Peoples (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Drew Rom (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9751 (Temp: 0.9882 | Wind: 0.9867)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 4.3 - ATH 4.6
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.2 - ATH 4.6
Win Probability: TEX 46.5% - ATH 53.5%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +115 / ATH -115
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.5: 41.1%
Under 9.5: 58.9%
TEX -1.5: 30.8%
ATH +1.5: 69.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.1 - ATH 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.1 - ATH 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TEX 46.5% - ATH 53.5% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +115 / ATH -115
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -140 +115 -11.9%
ATH ML +131 -115 +10.3%
TEX -1.5 +109 +225 -17.1%
ATH +1.5 -131 -225 +12.5%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -11.2%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +6.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Athletics +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -131 | Edge: 12.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01063