2026-08-16
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-16
Games: 15 | Plays: 4
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | August 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trevor Rogers Home: Freddy Peralta
ERA: 4.21 ERA: 5.33
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.5
K/9: 7.67 K/9: 8.83
BB/9: 2.56 BB/9: 3.65
FIP: 3.55 FIP: 4.46
IP: 119.7 IP: 123.3
xERA: 3.89 xERA: 4.03
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Trevor Rogers)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL TB Lg Avg
Record 60-63 74-48
R/Game 4.50 4.57 4.48
RA/Game 4.77 4.07 4.47
OPS 0.717 0.738 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.23 3.71 4.16
FIP 4.00 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.15 1.30
K/9 7.98 8.25 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.552 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.49 3.74 4.22
BP FIP 3.98 4.15 4.07
BP WHIP 1.35 1.17
BP K/9 8.60 8.59
BP Quality* 52.7 44.8 46.2
BP IP 409.3 389.7
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cam Sanders (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Walker (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Blaze Alexander, Samuel Basallo, Tyler O'Neill
Blaze Alexander Third Base OPS: 0.807 (221 AB)
Samuel Basallo Catcher OPS: 0.755 (282 AB)
Tyler O'Neill Outfielder OPS: 0.704 (215 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.0% of full strength
TB (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Liam Hicks, Victor Mesa Jr., Richie Palacios
Liam Hicks Catcher OPS: 0.818 (384 AB)
Victor Mesa Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.731 (159 AB)
Richie Palacios Second Base OPS: 0.702 (256 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.1 - TB 4.2
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.1 - TB 4.2
Win Probability: BAL 48.2% - TB 51.8%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +107 / TB -107
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 7.5: 54.9%
Under 7.5: 45.1%
BAL +1.5: 65.2%
TB -1.5: 34.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.4 - TB 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.4 - TB 2.1
F5 Win Prob: BAL 54.5% - TB 45.5% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -120 / TB +120
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +131 +107 +4.9%
TB ML -140 -107 -6.6%
BAL +1.5 -180 -188 +0.9%
TB -1.5 +148 +188 -5.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +2.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -7.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | August 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Patrick Sandoval Home: Lake Bachar
ERA: 3.3 ERA: 3.97
WHIP: 1.7 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 8.7 K/9: 9.32
BB/9: 3.9 BB/9: 3.15
FIP: 3.77 FIP: 4.45
IP: 30.0 IP: 65.7
xERA: 4.59 xERA: 3.67
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Patrick Sandoval)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS PIT Lg Avg
Record 66-57 60-65
R/Game 4.44 5.00 4.48
RA/Game 3.74 4.80 4.47
OPS 0.722 0.744 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.323 0.310
ERA 3.48 4.32 4.16
FIP 3.53 3.77 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.33 1.30
K/9 8.66 9.35 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.578 0.519 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.25 3.94 4.22
BP FIP 3.37 3.81 4.07
BP WHIP 1.24 1.34
BP K/9 9.34 9.53
BP Quality* 38.7 49.9 46.2
BP IP 329.7 445.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PIT: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Luke Weaver (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Wilber Dotel (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Willson Contreras, Curtis Mead, Masataka Yoshida
Willson Contreras First Base OPS: 0.912 (388 AB)
Curtis Mead Second Base OPS: 0.851 (285 AB)
Masataka Yoshida Designated Hitter OPS: 0.746 (263 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.0% of full strength
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 0 mph (gusts 0 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Weather data unavailable — using neutral
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 3.9 - PIT 4.5
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.9 - PIT 4.5
Win Probability: BOS 43.3% - PIT 56.7%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +131 / PIT -131
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.0: 45.8%
Under 8.0: 44.4%
BOS -1.5: 27.7%
PIT +1.5: 72.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 2.1 - PIT 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.1 - PIT 2.6
F5 Win Prob: BOS 41.4% - PIT 58.6% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +142 / PIT -142
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML -109 +131 -8.8%
PIT ML +102 -131 +7.2%
BOS -1.5 +141 +262 -13.8%
PIT +1.5 -171 -262 +9.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -6.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.0%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (Run Line) [-171]
Model: 72.4% | Market: 63.1% | Edge: 9.2%
Fair ML: -262 | Kelly: 6.27%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01064
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | August 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael Soroka Home: Bryce Elder
ERA: 2.92 ERA: 4.03
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 8.65 K/9: 7.38
BB/9: 2.08 BB/9: 3.08
FIP: 2.78 FIP: 4.56
IP: 86.3 IP: 131.7
xERA: 4.17 xERA: 4.09
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Michael Soroka)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI ATL Lg Avg
Record 66-58 73-50
R/Game 4.55 4.83 4.48
RA/Game 4.39 3.89 4.47
OPS 0.716 0.730 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.313 0.310
ERA 4.08 3.64 4.16
FIP 4.21 4.01 4.04
WHIP 1.27 1.24 1.30
K/9 6.89 8.70 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.517 0.597 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.71 3.61 4.22
BP FIP 3.63 3.74 4.07
BP WHIP 1.18 1.20
BP K/9 7.72 9.21
BP Quality* 41.2 44.3 46.2
BP IP 390.3 379.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Danny Young (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brent Suter (49 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Lane Thomas, Mauricio Dubón
Lane Thomas Outfielder OPS: 0.727 (299 AB)
Mauricio Dubón Outfielder OPS: 0.700 (439 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0525 (Temp: 1.0322 | Wind: 1.0196)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 4.8 - ATL 4.3
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.8 - ATL 4.3
Win Probability: ARI 55.1% - ATL 44.9%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -123 / ATL +123
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 9.0: 43.4%
Under 9.0: 47.8%
ARI +1.5: 70.5%
ATL -1.5: 29.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 2.8 - ATL 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.8 - ATL 2.2
F5 Win Prob: ARI 58.9% - ATL 41.1% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -143 / ATL +143
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +115 -123 +8.6%
ATL ML -124 +123 -10.4%
ARI +1.5 -194 -238 +4.5%
ATL -1.5 +159 +238 -9.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -9.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -4.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | August 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryan Weathers Home: Dylan Cease
ERA: 3.69 ERA: 2.4
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 9.66 K/9: 13.09
BB/9: 2.63 BB/9: 3.84
FIP: 3.68 FIP: 2.36
IP: 126.7 IP: 131.3
xERA: 4.26 xERA: 2.74
xwOBA: 0.318 xwOBA: 0.258
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Dylan Cease)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY TOR Lg Avg
Record 68-55 61-64
R/Game 4.45 3.91 4.48
RA/Game 3.76 4.36 4.47
OPS 0.716 0.679 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.293 0.310
ERA 3.28 3.96 4.16
FIP 3.56 3.90 4.04
WHIP 1.18 1.31 1.30
K/9 9.08 8.79 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.576 0.451 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.80 3.51 4.22
BP FIP 3.74 3.84 4.07
BP WHIP 1.17 1.37
BP K/9 8.46 7.71
BP Quality* 41.6 49.3 46.2
BP IP 370.0 233.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yerry De los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Spencer Miles (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton, Amed Rosario
Aaron Judge Outfielder OPS: 0.908 (214 AB)
Cody Bellinger Outfielder OPS: 0.770 (374 AB)
Paul Goldschmidt First Base OPS: 0.758 (300 AB)
Giancarlo Stanton Designated Hitter OPS: 0.724 (90 AB)
Amed Rosario Third Base OPS: 0.700 (184 AB)
Run Adjustment: 87.8% of full strength
TOR (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Luis Urías, Jesús Sánchez, Yohendrick Piñango, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Nathan Lukes
Luis Urías Second Base OPS: 0.803 (52 AB)
Jesús Sánchez Outfielder OPS: 0.741 (241 AB)
Yohendrick Piñango Outfielder OPS: 0.702 (169 AB)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. First Base OPS: 0.693 (430 AB)
Nathan Lukes Outfielder OPS: 0.684 (290 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0167 (Temp: 1.0048 | Wind: 1.0119)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 3.1 - TOR 3.4
Simulated Avg: NYY 3.1 - TOR 3.4
Win Probability: NYY 46.2% - TOR 53.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYY +116 / TOR -116
Avg Total Runs: 6.5
Over 6.5: 46.8%
Under 6.5: 53.2%
NYY +1.5: 66.5%
TOR -1.5: 33.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 1.3 - TOR 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 1.3 - TOR 1.9
F5 Win Prob: NYY 37.1% - TOR 62.9% (Tie: 21.6%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY +170 / TOR -170
F5 Avg Total: 3.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML +111 +116 -1.2%
TOR ML -119 -116 -0.5%
NYY +1.5 -219 -199 -2.1%
TOR -1.5 +178 +199 -2.5%
O 6.5 -110 N/A -5.5%
U 6.5 -110 N/A +0.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Regular Season | August 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jake Irvin Home: Christian Scott
ERA: 5.79 ERA: 3.45
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 9.09 K/9: 11.26
BB/9: 3.86 BB/9: 3.79
FIP: 4.55 FIP: 3.02
IP: 65.3 IP: 78.3
xERA: 5.36 xERA: 3.78
xwOBA: 0.352 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Christian Scott)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH NYM Lg Avg
Record 60-65 55-69
R/Game 5.34 4.19 4.48
RA/Game 5.18 4.53 4.47
OPS 0.766 0.696 0.719
wOBA 0.327 0.300 0.310
ERA 4.73 4.10 4.16
FIP 4.62 3.85 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.30 1.30
K/9 7.70 9.09 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.513 0.464 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.91 4.26 4.22
BP FIP 5.11 4.33 4.07
BP WHIP 1.60 1.38
BP K/9 8.70 9.10
BP Quality* 61.6 47.7 46.2
BP IP 415.7 219.7
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Will Dion (64 pitches yesterday)
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: James Wood, Joey Wiemer, José Tena
James Wood Outfielder OPS: 0.928 (437 AB)
Joey Wiemer Outfielder OPS: 0.912 (70 AB)
José Tena Designated Hitter OPS: 0.705 (215 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.6% of full strength
NYM (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Juan Soto, Francisco Alvarez, MJ Melendez
Juan Soto Outfielder OPS: 0.947 (293 AB)
Francisco Alvarez Catcher OPS: 0.766 (278 AB)
MJ Melendez Designated Hitter OPS: 0.665 (120 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.5% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9935 (Temp: 1.0120 | Wind: 0.9817)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 4.1 - NYM 4.8
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.1 - NYM 4.8
Win Probability: WSH 42.4% - NYM 57.6%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +136 / NYM -136
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 50.8%
Under 8.5: 49.2%
WSH +1.5: 59.0%
NYM -1.5: 41.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.1 - NYM 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.1 - NYM 2.6
F5 Win Prob: WSH 41.8% - NYM 58.2% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH +139 / NYM -139
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +148 +136 +2.1%
NYM ML -159 -136 -3.8%
WSH +1.5 -149 -144 -0.8%
NYM -1.5 +123 +144 -3.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -1.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | August 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Casey Mize Home: Tanner Bibee
ERA: 3.38 ERA: 3.99
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 8.63 K/9: 7.11
BB/9: 2.25 BB/9: 2.49
FIP: 2.88 FIP: 4.42
IP: 96.0 IP: 144.3
xERA: 3.39 xERA: 4.29
xwOBA: 0.286 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: SD (Casey Mize)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD CLE Lg Avg
Record 66-58 60-64
R/Game 4.27 3.98 4.48
RA/Game 4.29 4.20 4.47
OPS 0.701 0.684 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.298 0.310
ERA 4.11 3.84 4.16
FIP 4.06 3.79 4.04
WHIP 1.32 1.27 1.30
K/9 8.29 9.43 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.498 0.476 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.84 3.81 4.22
BP FIP 2.97 3.63 4.07
BP WHIP 1.15 1.32
BP K/9 10.92 9.93
BP Quality* 36.0 48.4 46.2
BP IP 259.7 417.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Randy Vásquez (90 pitches yesterday)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Franco Aleman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Yoho (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Luis Campusano, Samad Taylor, Miguel Andujar, Ramón Laureano
Luis Campusano Catcher OPS: 0.925 (128 AB)
Samad Taylor Outfielder OPS: 0.808 (88 AB)
Miguel Andujar Designated Hitter OPS: 0.726 (239 AB)
Ramón Laureano Outfielder OPS: 0.660 (182 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.6% of full strength
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Angel Martínez
Angel Martínez Outfielder OPS: 0.704 (283 AB)
Run Adjustment: 98.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 58%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0095 (Temp: 1.0121 | Wind: 0.9974)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.8 - CLE 3.0
Simulated Avg: SD 3.8 - CLE 3.0
Win Probability: SD 58.6% - CLE 41.4%
Fair Moneyline: SD -141 / CLE +141
Avg Total Runs: 6.8
Over 8.0: 30.0%
Under 8.0: 60.3%
SD -1.5: 39.4%
CLE +1.5: 60.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 2.1 - CLE 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.1 - CLE 1.6
F5 Win Prob: SD 59.5% - CLE 40.5% (Tie: 19.3%)
F5 Fair ML: SD -147 / CLE +147
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML -108 -141 +6.6%
CLE ML +101 +141 -8.3%
SD -1.5 +144 +154 -1.5%
CLE +1.5 -175 -154 -3.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -22.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +7.9%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.3% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.17%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01065
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | August 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sean Burke Home: Drew Anderson
ERA: 2.99 ERA: 3.91
WHIP: 1.08 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 10.08 K/9: 10.35
BB/9: 2.59 BB/9: 3.41
FIP: 3.16 FIP: 3.76
IP: 135.7 IP: 71.3
xERA: 3.54 xERA: 3.54
xwOBA: 0.292 xwOBA: 0.292
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Sean Burke)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS DET Lg Avg
Record 64-58 60-63
R/Game 4.81 4.55 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 3.86 4.47
OPS 0.729 0.727 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.10 3.52 4.16
FIP 4.01 3.71 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.21 1.30
K/9 8.53 8.33 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.536 0.575 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.09 4.23 4.22
BP FIP 4.20 4.35 4.07
BP WHIP 1.34 1.37
BP K/9 8.12 8.19
BP Quality* 51.1 47.8 46.2
BP IP 321.3 331.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jordan Hicks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (2 of last 3 days)
DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Randal Grichuk
Randal Grichuk Unknown OPS: 0.837 (182 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.6% of full strength
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Eduardo Valencia, Ben Malgeri, Riley Greene
Eduardo Valencia Designated Hitter OPS: 1.291 (52 AB)
Ben Malgeri Outfielder OPS: 0.852 (55 AB)
Riley Greene Outfielder OPS: 0.816 (422 AB)
Run Adjustment: 84.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 25%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9915 (Temp: 1.0129 | Wind: 0.9788)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 4.3 - DET 3.5
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.3 - DET 3.5
Win Probability: CWS 57.3% - DET 42.7%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -134 / DET +134
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.0: 40.3%
Under 8.0: 50.0%
CWS -1.5: 39.9%
DET +1.5: 60.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.2 - DET 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.2 - DET 1.6
F5 Win Prob: CWS 62.0% - DET 38.0% (Tie: 19.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -163 / DET +163
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +101 -134 +7.6%
DET ML -108 +134 -9.2%
CWS -1.5 +161 +151 +1.6%
DET +1.5 -197 -151 -6.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -12.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -2.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | August 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Eury Pérez Home: Nick Lodolo
ERA: 3.39 ERA: 4.86
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 9.87 K/9: 7.43
BB/9: 3.39 BB/9: 3.65
FIP: 3.49 FIP: 5.0
IP: 116.7 IP: 66.7
xERA: 3.65 xERA: 6.18
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.374
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Eury Pérez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA CIN Lg Avg
Record 63-61 59-63
R/Game 4.38 4.11 4.48
RA/Game 4.27 4.76 4.47
OPS 0.729 0.701 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.303 0.310
ERA 3.95 4.50 4.16
FIP 3.83 4.51 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.40 1.30
K/9 8.58 8.17 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.512 0.433 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.45 4.64 4.22
BP FIP 3.78 4.65 4.07
BP WHIP 1.32 1.43
BP K/9 9.24 8.67
BP Quality* 45.4 58.6 46.2
BP IP 396.3 449.7
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Pierce Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Mey (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Tyler Stephenson, Spencer Steer, Blake Dunn, Dane Myers
Tyler Stephenson Catcher OPS: 0.744 (298 AB)
Spencer Steer First Base OPS: 0.740 (340 AB)
Blake Dunn Outfielder OPS: 0.722 (142 AB)
Dane Myers Outfielder OPS: 0.687 (192 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 25%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0128 (Temp: 1.0227 | Wind: 0.9903)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 6.0 - CIN 3.8
Simulated Avg: MIA 6.0 - CIN 3.8
Win Probability: MIA 69.2% - CIN 30.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -225 / CIN +225
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 8.5: 57.8%
Under 8.5: 42.2%
MIA -1.5: 55.0%
CIN +1.5: 45.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 3.4 - CIN 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 3.4 - CIN 1.9
F5 Win Prob: MIA 71.0% - CIN 29.0% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -245 / CIN +245
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML -118 -225 +15.1%
CIN ML +110 +225 -16.9%
MIA -1.5 +129 -122 +11.3%
CIN +1.5 -156 +122 -15.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +5.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -10.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Miami Marlins (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -118 | Edge: 15.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01066
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | August 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andrew Painter Home: Dean Kremer
ERA: 6.27 ERA: 5.25
WHIP: 1.53 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 7.73 K/9: 8.81
BB/9: 3.47 BB/9: 2.63
FIP: 4.97 FIP: 5.27
IP: 80.3 IP: 48.0
xERA: 4.91 xERA: 4.23
xwOBA: 0.339 xwOBA: 0.317
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI MIN Lg Avg
Record 66-58 60-64
R/Game 4.44 4.62 4.48
RA/Game 4.39 4.99 4.47
OPS 0.711 0.725 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.15 4.65 4.16
FIP 3.62 4.20 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.39 1.30
K/9 10.00 8.40 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.465 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.23 4.47 4.22
BP FIP 3.53 3.98 4.07
BP WHIP 1.33 1.43
BP K/9 10.11 8.66
BP Quality* 43.2 47.3 46.2
BP IP 430.0 543.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ryan Jeffers, Alex Jackson
Ryan Jeffers Catcher OPS: 0.886 (210 AB)
Alex Jackson Catcher OPS: 0.742 (66 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0497 (Temp: 1.0112 | Wind: 1.0380)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 5.2 - MIN 5.3
Simulated Avg: PHI 5.1 - MIN 5.3
Win Probability: PHI 48.1% - MIN 51.9%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +108 / MIN -108
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 9.5: 54.9%
Under 9.5: 45.1%
PHI -1.5: 34.0%
MIN +1.5: 66.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 3.0 - MIN 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 3.1 - MIN 3.3
F5 Win Prob: PHI 46.6% - MIN 53.4% (Tie: 13.5%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +115 / MIN -115
F5 Avg Total: 6.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -104 +108 -2.9%
MIN ML -103 -108 +1.2%
PHI -1.5 +144 +194 -7.0%
MIN +1.5 -175 -194 +2.4%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +2.5%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -7.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | August 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Hunter Dobbins Home: Edward Cabrera
ERA: 3.4 ERA: 5.1
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 8.4 K/9: 8.09
BB/9: 3.4 BB/9: 3.61
FIP: 4.1 FIP: 5.02
IP: 45.0 IP: 72.3
xERA: 3.81 xERA: 4.88
xwOBA: 0.302 xwOBA: 0.338
Pitcher Edge: STL (Hunter Dobbins)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL CHC Lg Avg
Record 62-61 72-52
R/Game 4.37 5.17 4.48
RA/Game 4.37 4.31 4.47
OPS 0.695 0.755 0.719
wOBA 0.301 0.326 0.310
ERA 4.04 4.10 4.16
FIP 3.96 4.57 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.25 1.30
K/9 7.67 7.69 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.500 0.583 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.17 4.33 4.22
BP FIP 4.11 4.46 4.07
BP WHIP 1.36 1.34
BP K/9 7.77 8.49
BP Quality* 46.6 48.2 46.2
BP IP 462.3 491.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0333 (Temp: 1.0164 | Wind: 1.0167)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 5.2 - CHC 5.4
Simulated Avg: STL 5.2 - CHC 5.4
Win Probability: STL 48.3% - CHC 51.7%
Fair Moneyline: STL +107 / CHC -107
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 9.0: 56.2%
Under 9.0: 35.5%
STL +1.5: 62.6%
CHC -1.5: 37.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 3.1 - CHC 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 3.1 - CHC 2.9
F5 Win Prob: STL 53.4% - CHC 46.6% (Tie: 14.3%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -115 / CHC +115
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +162 +107 +10.1%
CHC ML -174 -107 -11.8%
STL +1.5 -136 -168 +5.0%
CHC -1.5 +113 +168 -9.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +3.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -16.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] St. Louis Cardinals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +162 | Edge: 10.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01067
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | August 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gabriel Hughes Home: Blade Tidwell
ERA: 5.61 ERA: 2.78
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 8.29 K/9: 7.54
BB/9: 3.21 BB/9: 1.99
FIP: 3.1 FIP: 2.66
IP: 33.7 IP: 22.7
xERA: 3.03 xERA: 3.15
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.276
Pitcher Edge: SF (Blade Tidwell)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL SF Lg Avg
Record 49-74 51-72
R/Game 4.74 4.08 4.48
RA/Game 5.71 4.58 4.47
OPS 0.741 0.713 0.719
wOBA 0.318 0.304 0.310
ERA 5.46 4.29 4.16
FIP 4.71 4.01 4.04
WHIP 1.51 1.35 1.30
K/9 6.98 7.72 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.416 0.448 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.20 4.70 4.22
BP FIP 4.38 4.33 4.07
BP WHIP 1.53 1.48
BP K/9 7.31 7.02
BP Quality* 54.1 50.6 46.2
BP IP 294.3 322.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tanner Gordon (63 pitches yesterday)
SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9712 (Temp: 0.9954 | Wind: 0.9756)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.2 - SF 3.9
Simulated Avg: COL 4.2 - SF 3.9
Win Probability: COL 52.8% - SF 47.1%
Fair Moneyline: COL -112 / SF +112
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.0: 42.5%
Under 8.0: 47.8%
COL +1.5: 70.1%
SF -1.5: 29.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.1 - SF 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.1 - SF 1.9
F5 Win Prob: COL 54.9% - SF 45.1% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: COL -122 / SF +122
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +116 -112 +6.6%
SF ML -124 +112 -8.2%
COL +1.5 -193 -235 +4.2%
SF -1.5 +158 +235 -8.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -9.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -4.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Athletics
Regular Season | August 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cody Bradford Home: Jacob Lopez
ERA: 2.38 ERA: 5.38
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.56
K/9: 4.76 K/9: 8.23
BB/9: 2.38 BB/9: 4.83
FIP: 2.83 FIP: 5.1
IP: 11.3 IP: 82.0
xERA: 4.82 xERA: 3.42
xwOBA: 0.336 xwOBA: 0.287
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Cody Bradford)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX ATH Lg Avg
Record 61-63 48-75
R/Game 4.07 4.35 4.48
RA/Game 4.43 5.79 4.47
OPS 0.710 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.30 5.48 4.16
FIP 4.01 4.84 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.50 1.30
K/9 8.61 8.58 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.462 0.372 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.41 5.88 4.22
BP FIP 4.20 4.72 4.07
BP WHIP 1.36 1.61
BP K/9 7.97 9.19
BP Quality* 52.1 56.7 46.2
BP IP 412.3 451.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9892 (Temp: 1.0021 | Wind: 0.9871)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 4.7 - ATH 4.3
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.7 - ATH 4.3
Win Probability: TEX 53.2% - ATH 46.8%
Fair Moneyline: TEX -114 / ATH +114
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 9.5: 42.7%
Under 9.5: 57.3%
TEX -1.5: 37.4%
ATH +1.5: 62.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.5 - ATH 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.5 - ATH 2.1
F5 Win Prob: TEX 56.8% - ATH 43.2% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -132 / ATH +132
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -129 -114 -3.1%
ATH ML +120 +114 +1.3%
TEX -1.5 +113 +168 -9.6%
ATH +1.5 -136 -168 +5.0%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -9.7%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +4.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | August 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Noah Cameron Home: Ryan Johnson
ERA: 4.45 ERA: 6.71
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.56
K/9: 8.21 K/9: 7.04
BB/9: 2.92 BB/9: 4.42
FIP: 3.66 FIP: 6.32
IP: 129.3 IP: 55.0
xERA: 4.41 xERA: 5.54
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.357
Pitcher Edge: KC (Noah Cameron)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC LAA Lg Avg
Record 50-74 49-75
R/Game 4.11 4.09 4.48
RA/Game 5.03 4.76 4.47
OPS 0.703 0.688 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.82 4.42 4.16
FIP 4.56 4.07 4.04
WHIP 1.42 1.36 1.30
K/9 7.58 9.18 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.409 0.431 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.66 4.68 4.22
BP FIP 5.24 4.36 4.07
BP WHIP 1.58 1.40
BP K/9 7.71 8.98
BP Quality* 59.9 52.4 46.2
BP IP 507.7 309.7
Bullpen Edge: LAA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Nate Pearson (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sammy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0016 (Temp: 1.0183 | Wind: 0.9836)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 5.5 - LAA 4.7
Simulated Avg: KC 5.4 - LAA 4.7
Win Probability: KC 55.9% - LAA 44.1%
Fair Moneyline: KC -127 / LAA +127
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 8.5: 61.0%
Under 8.5: 39.0%
KC -1.5: 41.5%
LAA +1.5: 58.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 3.4 - LAA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 3.4 - LAA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: KC 65.6% - LAA 34.4% (Tie: 14.3%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -191 / LAA +191
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML -109 -127 +3.7%
LAA ML +102 +127 -5.4%
KC -1.5 +139 +141 -0.3%
LAA +1.5 -168 -141 -4.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +8.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -13.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.7%
Fair ML: -157 | Kelly: 4.55%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01068
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | August 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Logan Henderson Home: Tarik Skubal
ERA: 2.88 ERA: 2.93
WHIP: 0.91 WHIP: 0.93
K/9: 11.02 K/9: 10.7
BB/9: 1.76 BB/9: 1.5
FIP: 3.31 FIP: 2.67
IP: 56.3 IP: 107.7
xERA: 2.68 xERA: 3.01
xwOBA: 0.255 xwOBA: 0.27
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Tarik Skubal)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL LAD Lg Avg
Record 76-48 74-50
R/Game 4.85 4.95 4.48
RA/Game 3.79 3.82 4.47
OPS 0.728 0.763 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.326 0.310
ERA 3.51 3.69 4.16
FIP 3.47 3.86 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.16 1.30
K/9 9.78 9.12 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.611 0.616 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.61 4.12 4.22
BP FIP 3.55 3.89 4.07
BP WHIP 1.27 1.31
BP K/9 8.86 9.81
BP Quality* 44.1 49.1 46.2
BP IP 421.7 397.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jonathan Hernández (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Edwin Díaz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0077 (Temp: 1.0185 | Wind: 0.9895)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 3.9 - LAD 4.0
Simulated Avg: MIL 3.9 - LAD 4.0
Win Probability: MIL 48.8% - LAD 51.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIL +105 / LAD -105
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 7.0: 51.0%
Under 7.0: 38.8%
MIL +1.5: 66.5%
LAD -1.5: 33.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 1.8 - LAD 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 1.8 - LAD 1.9
F5 Win Prob: MIL 46.6% - LAD 53.4% (Tie: 20.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +115 / LAD -115
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML +163 +105 +10.7%
LAD ML -176 -105 -12.5%
MIL +1.5 -144 -198 +7.4%
LAD -1.5 +119 +198 -12.1%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -1.4%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -13.6%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (Run Line) [-144]
Model: 66.5% | Market: 59.0% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: -198 | Kelly: 4.53%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01069
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | August 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bryan Woo Home: Hunter Brown
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 3.68
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 8.98 K/9: 9.47
BB/9: 1.9 BB/9: 4.95
FIP: 3.02 FIP: 4.28
IP: 132.3 IP: 63.7
xERA: 3.6 xERA: 3.65
xwOBA: 0.294 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryan Woo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA HOU Lg Avg
Record 58-66 63-61
R/Game 3.92 4.63 4.48
RA/Game 4.11 4.86 4.47
OPS 0.686 0.732 0.719
wOBA 0.299 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.86 4.60 4.16
FIP 3.64 4.47 4.04
WHIP 1.21 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.64 8.85 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.478 0.477 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.80 4.17 4.22
BP FIP 3.87 4.33 4.07
BP WHIP 1.32 1.29
BP K/9 9.01 9.12
BP Quality* 48.0 48.1 46.2
BP IP 364.7 431.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ronel Blanco (59 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9976 (Temp: 1.0248 | Wind: 0.9735)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 3.8 - HOU 4.3
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.8 - HOU 4.3
Win Probability: SEA 43.9% - HOU 56.1%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +128 / HOU -128
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.5: 53.1%
Under 7.5: 46.9%
SEA +1.5: 61.1%
HOU -1.5: 38.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.0 - HOU 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.0 - HOU 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SEA 46.6% - HOU 53.4% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +115 / HOU -115
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML +110 +128 -3.7%
HOU ML -118 -128 +2.0%
SEA +1.5 -205 -157 -6.1%
HOU -1.5 +168 +157 +1.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +0.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -5.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================