2026-08-17
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-17
Games: 11 | Plays: 1
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[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] CIN starter (id 592288) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (the model never uses prior-season data).
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | August 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Quinn Mathews Home: Player 592288
ERA: 3.6 ERA: 0.0
WHIP: 1.8 WHIP: 0.0
K/9: 5.4 K/9: 0.0
BB/9: 5.4 BB/9: 0.0
FIP: 3.7 FIP: 0.0
IP: 5.0 IP: 0.0
xERA: 3.6 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.294 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Player 592288)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL CIN Lg Avg
Record 63-61 59-64
R/Game 4.42 4.08 4.48
RA/Game 4.36 4.78 4.48
OPS 0.698 0.699 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.04 4.51 4.17
FIP 3.97 4.53 4.05
WHIP 1.34 1.40 1.30
K/9 7.70 8.17 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.428 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.17 4.72 4.23
BP FIP 4.11 4.70 4.08
BP WHIP 1.36 1.44
BP K/9 7.78 8.71
BP Quality* 46.6 59.1 46.3
BP IP 466.3 453.7
Bullpen Edge: STL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CIN: DEPLETED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Ron Marinaccio (B2B, 47 pitches)
UNAVAIL: Tejay Antone (B2B, 30 pitches)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (35 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: JJ Wetherholt, Bryan Torres, Nathan Church
JJ Wetherholt Second Base OPS: 0.726 (457 AB)
Bryan Torres Outfielder OPS: 0.671 (106 AB)
Nathan Church Outfielder OPS: 0.633 (318 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.5% of full strength
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: JJ Bleday, Spencer Steer, Blake Dunn, Jose Trevino
JJ Bleday Outfielder OPS: 0.772 (336 AB)
Spencer Steer First Base OPS: 0.740 (340 AB)
Blake Dunn Outfielder OPS: 0.722 (142 AB)
Jose Trevino Catcher OPS: 0.664 (96 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.5% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 34%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0211 (Temp: 1.0081 | Wind: 1.0129)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 4.7 - CIN 4.1
Simulated Avg: STL 4.7 - CIN 4.1
Win Probability: STL 55.9% - CIN 44.1%
Fair Moneyline: STL -127 / CIN +127
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 9.5: 40.3%
Under 9.5: 59.7%
STL -1.5: 39.7%
CIN +1.5: 60.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 2.2 - CIN 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.2 - CIN 2.2
F5 Win Prob: STL 50.3% - CIN 49.7% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -101 / CIN +101
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML -108 -127 +3.9%
CIN ML +101 +127 -5.6%
STL -1.5 +135 +152 -2.9%
CIN +1.5 -163 -152 -1.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -12.1%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +7.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds (Game 2)
Regular Season | August 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andre Pallante Home: Rhett Lowder
ERA: 3.46 ERA: 5.15
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.48
K/9: 6.37 K/9: 7.35
BB/9: 2.77 BB/9: 3.82
FIP: 3.61 FIP: 4.39
IP: 130.0 IP: 94.3
xERA: 3.84 xERA: 5.22
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: 0.348
Pitcher Edge: STL (Andre Pallante)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL CIN Lg Avg
Record 63-61 59-64
R/Game 4.42 4.08 4.48
RA/Game 4.36 4.78 4.48
OPS 0.698 0.699 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.04 4.51 4.17
FIP 3.97 4.53 4.05
WHIP 1.34 1.40 1.30
K/9 7.70 8.17 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.428 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.17 4.72 4.23
BP FIP 4.11 4.70 4.08
BP WHIP 1.36 1.44
BP K/9 7.78 8.71
BP Quality* 46.6 66.6 46.3
BP IP 466.3 453.7
Bullpen Edge: STL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CIN: DEPLETED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Ron Marinaccio (B2B, 47 pitches)
UNAVAIL: Tejay Antone (B2B, 30 pitches)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (35 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: JJ Wetherholt, Bryan Torres, Nathan Church
JJ Wetherholt Second Base OPS: 0.726 (457 AB)
Bryan Torres Outfielder OPS: 0.671 (106 AB)
Nathan Church Outfielder OPS: 0.633 (318 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.5% of full strength
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: JJ Bleday, Spencer Steer, Blake Dunn, Jose Trevino
JJ Bleday Outfielder OPS: 0.772 (336 AB)
Spencer Steer First Base OPS: 0.740 (340 AB)
Blake Dunn Outfielder OPS: 0.722 (142 AB)
Jose Trevino Catcher OPS: 0.664 (96 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.5% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 34%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0211 (Temp: 1.0081 | Wind: 1.0129)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 5.8 - CIN 3.9
Simulated Avg: STL 5.8 - CIN 3.9
Win Probability: STL 66.7% - CIN 33.3%
Fair Moneyline: STL -200 / CIN +200
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 9.0: 48.7%
Under 9.0: 42.5%
STL -1.5: 52.2%
CIN +1.5: 47.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 3.0 - CIN 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 3.0 - CIN 2.0
F5 Win Prob: STL 65.5% - CIN 34.5% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -190 / CIN +190
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML -119 -200 +12.3%
CIN ML +111 +200 -14.1%
STL -1.5 +125 -109 +7.8%
CIN +1.5 -151 +109 -12.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -3.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -9.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] St. Louis Cardinals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -119 | Edge: 12.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01070
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | August 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brandon Young Home: Shane McClanahan
ERA: 3.33 ERA: 3.09
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 7.36 K/9: 8.27
BB/9: 3.25 BB/9: 3.18
FIP: 3.92 FIP: 3.24
IP: 113.7 IP: 99.0
xERA: 4.17 xERA: 4.11
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: TB (Shane McClanahan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL TB Lg Avg
Record 61-63 74-49
R/Game 4.54 4.54 4.48
RA/Game 4.75 4.12 4.48
OPS 0.718 0.738 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.316 0.310
ERA 4.21 3.76 4.17
FIP 3.98 3.95 4.05
WHIP 1.35 1.15 1.30
K/9 8.00 8.24 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.479 0.545 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.45 3.76 4.23
BP FIP 3.95 4.15 4.08
BP WHIP 1.34 1.18
BP K/9 8.62 8.58
BP Quality* 53.8 49.5 46.3
BP IP 412.3 390.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cam Sanders (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Walker (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Steven Matz (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joe Boyle (84 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.0 - TB 4.5
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.0 - TB 4.5
Win Probability: BAL 44.2% - TB 55.8%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +126 / TB -126
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.5: 56.6%
Under 7.5: 43.4%
BAL +1.5: 60.9%
TB -1.5: 39.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.0 - TB 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.0 - TB 2.3
F5 Win Prob: BAL 45.4% - TB 54.6% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +121 / TB -121
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +147 +126 +3.7%
TB ML -158 -126 -5.5%
BAL +1.5 -158 -156 -0.3%
TB -1.5 +131 +156 -4.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +4.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -9.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | August 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Janson Junk Home: Cristopher Sánchez
ERA: 4.41 ERA: 2.54
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 6.57 K/9: 10.46
BB/9: 2.46 BB/9: 2.02
FIP: 4.24 FIP: 2.53
IP: 87.7 IP: 155.7
xERA: 4.11 xERA: 3.32
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.283
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA PHI Lg Avg
Record 64-61 67-58
R/Game 4.40 4.46 4.48
RA/Game 4.24 4.39 4.48
OPS 0.729 0.711 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.306 0.310
ERA 3.92 4.16 4.17
FIP 3.83 3.64 4.05
WHIP 1.24 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.57 9.99 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.517 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.44 4.20 4.23
BP FIP 3.79 3.52 4.08
BP WHIP 1.32 1.33
BP K/9 9.24 10.14
BP Quality* 49.9 44.6 46.3
BP IP 399.3 433.0
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (33 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0355 (Temp: 1.0185 | Wind: 1.0168)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 3.6 - PHI 5.1
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.6 - PHI 5.0
Win Probability: MIA 36.0% - PHI 64.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +178 / PHI -178
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.0: 48.5%
Under 8.0: 41.9%
MIA +1.5: 52.9%
PHI -1.5: 47.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 1.7 - PHI 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.7 - PHI 2.7
F5 Win Prob: MIA 32.9% - PHI 67.1% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +204 / PHI -204
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +228 +178 +5.5%
PHI ML -247 -178 -7.1%
MIA +1.5 -101 -112 +2.6%
PHI -1.5 -119 +112 -7.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -3.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -10.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | August 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Framber Valdez Home: Carmen Mlodzinski
ERA: 4.26 ERA: 3.79
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 7.17 K/9: 7.04
BB/9: 3.38 BB/9: 3.16
FIP: 3.9 FIP: 3.63
IP: 133.0 IP: 99.7
xERA: 4.38 xERA: 5.15
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.346
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET PIT Lg Avg
Record 60-64 61-65
R/Game 4.56 5.02 4.48
RA/Game 3.89 4.79 4.48
OPS 0.727 0.745 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.323 0.310
ERA 3.55 4.31 4.17
FIP 3.74 3.76 4.05
WHIP 1.21 1.32 1.30
K/9 8.34 9.38 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.572 0.522 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.22 3.95 4.23
BP FIP 4.38 3.81 4.08
BP WHIP 1.37 1.34
BP K/9 8.20 9.57
BP Quality* 52.5 52.9 46.3
BP IP 334.7 450.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jacob Waguespack (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Rainey (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Hunter Barco (47 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 16%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0041 (Temp: 1.0073 | Wind: 0.9968)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 4.7 - PIT 5.3
Simulated Avg: DET 4.7 - PIT 5.3
Win Probability: DET 44.1% - PIT 55.9%
Fair Moneyline: DET +127 / PIT -127
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 8.0: 59.7%
Under 8.0: 31.8%
DET -1.5: 29.8%
PIT +1.5: 70.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.5 - PIT 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.5 - PIT 2.8
F5 Win Prob: DET 45.7% - PIT 54.3% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +119 / PIT -119
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML -106 +127 -7.3%
PIT ML -101 -127 +5.6%
DET -1.5 +144 +235 -11.2%
PIT +1.5 -175 -235 +6.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +7.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -20.6%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.7% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: -148 | Kelly: 3.86%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01071
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | August 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Mitch Bratt Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI BOS Lg Avg
Record 66-59 66-58
R/Game 4.54 4.43 4.48
RA/Game 4.39 3.77 4.48
OPS 0.715 0.720 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.09 3.52 4.17
FIP 4.21 3.53 4.05
WHIP 1.27 1.22 1.30
K/9 6.91 8.65 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.515 0.573 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.49 3.24 4.23
BP FIP 3.45 3.37 4.08
BP WHIP 1.19 1.23
BP K/9 7.48 9.25
BP Quality* 41.4 40.1 46.3
BP IP 353.7 333.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Raymond Burgos (52 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0099 (Temp: 0.9965 | Wind: 1.0134)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 4.5 - BOS 4.7
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.4 - BOS 4.7
Win Probability: ARI 46.9% - BOS 53.1%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +113 / BOS -113
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.0: 43.9%
Under 9.0: 47.1%
ARI +1.5: 62.9%
BOS -1.5: 37.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.6 - BOS 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.6 - BOS 2.8
F5 Win Prob: ARI 48.0% - BOS 52.0% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +108 / BOS -108
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +131 +113 +3.6%
BOS ML -140 -113 -5.3%
ARI +1.5 -170 -170 -0.0%
BOS -1.5 +140 +170 -4.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -8.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -5.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
Regular Season | August 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Walker Buehler Home: Nolan McLean
ERA: 4.88 ERA: 3.42
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 7.87 K/9: 10.47
BB/9: 3.7 BB/9: 3.29
FIP: 4.18 FIP: 3.3
IP: 114.3 IP: 136.7
xERA: 4.35 xERA: 3.62
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.295
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD NYM Lg Avg
Record 67-58 56-69
R/Game 4.28 4.18 4.48
RA/Game 4.26 4.52 4.48
OPS 0.704 0.697 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.301 0.310
ERA 4.08 4.09 4.17
FIP 4.05 3.85 4.05
WHIP 1.31 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.27 9.11 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.503 0.465 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.81 4.23 4.23
BP FIP 2.97 4.31 4.08
BP WHIP 1.14 1.37
BP K/9 10.90 9.11
BP Quality* 37.3 51.9 46.3
BP IP 262.7 221.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jeremiah Estrada (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Daniel Duarte (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nate Lavender (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kodai Senga (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0407 (Temp: 1.0076 | Wind: 1.0328)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 4.0 - NYM 4.1
Simulated Avg: SD 4.0 - NYM 4.1
Win Probability: SD 48.3% - NYM 51.7%
Fair Moneyline: SD +107 / NYM -107
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.0: 43.4%
Under 8.0: 46.9%
SD +1.5: 65.8%
NYM -1.5: 34.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.0 - NYM 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.9 - NYM 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SD 40.0% - NYM 60.0% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +150 / NYM -150
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +111 +107 +0.9%
NYM ML -119 -107 -2.6%
SD +1.5 -199 -192 -0.8%
NYM -1.5 +163 +192 -3.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -9.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | August 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Mason Barnett Home: Michael Wacha
ERA: 6.16 ERA: 3.46
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 8.53 K/9: 6.99
BB/9: 4.74 BB/9: 2.45
FIP: 6.55 FIP: 3.92
IP: 38.0 IP: 150.7
xERA: 4.82 xERA: 4.09
xwOBA: 0.336 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: KC (Michael Wacha)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH KC Lg Avg
Record 49-75 51-74
R/Game 4.35 4.10 4.48
RA/Game 5.76 4.99 4.48
OPS 0.720 0.703 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.302 0.310
ERA 5.45 4.78 4.17
FIP 4.82 4.53 4.05
WHIP 1.50 1.41 1.30
K/9 8.60 7.59 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.375 0.411 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.84 5.66 4.23
BP FIP 4.69 5.24 4.08
BP WHIP 1.60 1.58
BP K/9 9.24 7.71
BP Quality* 62.3 59.9 46.3
BP IP 454.7 507.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Rom (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Nate Pearson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0403 (Temp: 1.0245 | Wind: 1.0154)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.7 - KC 6.0
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.7 - KC 6.0
Win Probability: ATH 39.2% - KC 60.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +155 / KC -155
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 9.0: 56.9%
Under 9.0: 35.3%
ATH +1.5: 53.7%
KC -1.5: 46.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.3 - KC 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.3 - KC 3.3
F5 Win Prob: ATH 35.2% - KC 64.8% (Tie: 14.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +184 / KC -184
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML +165 +155 +1.4%
KC ML -177 -155 -3.1%
ATH +1.5 -130 -116 -2.9%
KC -1.5 +108 +116 -1.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +4.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -17.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | August 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Martín Pérez Home: Bailey Ober
ERA: 2.96 ERA: 4.64
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 6.77 K/9: 6.09
BB/9: 3.64 BB/9: 2.27
FIP: 4.15 FIP: 4.74
IP: 106.3 IP: 99.0
xERA: 4.29 xERA: 4.72
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Martín Pérez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL MIN Lg Avg
Record 74-50 60-65
R/Game 4.83 4.62 4.48
RA/Game 3.89 5.01 4.48
OPS 0.730 0.726 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.314 0.310
ERA 3.64 4.67 4.17
FIP 4.02 4.20 4.05
WHIP 1.24 1.39 1.30
K/9 8.71 8.39 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.598 0.464 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.63 4.49 4.23
BP FIP 3.75 3.97 4.08
BP WHIP 1.20 1.43
BP K/9 9.24 8.62
BP Quality* 42.9 53.3 46.3
BP IP 382.0 547.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Andrew Morris (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9905 (Temp: 1.0133 | Wind: 0.9774)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 5.4 - MIN 4.4
Simulated Avg: ATL 5.4 - MIN 4.4
Win Probability: ATL 59.1% - MIN 40.9%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -144 / MIN +144
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.0: 49.2%
Under 9.0: 42.1%
ATL -1.5: 43.9%
MIN +1.5: 56.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 3.0 - MIN 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 3.0 - MIN 2.5
F5 Win Prob: ATL 58.5% - MIN 41.5% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -141 / MIN +141
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -124 -144 +3.7%
MIN ML +116 +144 -5.3%
ATL -1.5 +123 +128 -0.9%
MIN +1.5 -149 -128 -3.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -3.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -10.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | August 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Luis Castillo Home: Shota Imanaga
ERA: 4.96 ERA: 3.74
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 8.21 K/9: 8.52
BB/9: 2.85 BB/9: 1.9
FIP: 4.22 FIP: 4.49
IP: 110.7 IP: 137.3
xERA: 4.63 xERA: 3.81
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.302
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS CHC Lg Avg
Record 65-58 72-53
R/Game 4.83 5.16 4.48
RA/Game 4.45 4.36 4.48
OPS 0.730 0.754 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.326 0.310
ERA 4.11 4.16 4.17
FIP 4.02 4.58 4.05
WHIP 1.29 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.51 7.71 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.538 0.576 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.04 4.37 4.23
BP FIP 4.19 4.48 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.35
BP K/9 8.11 8.48
BP Quality* 52.3 54.5 46.3
BP IP 325.3 494.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sean Newcomb (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aaron Civale (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9884 (Temp: 0.9972 | Wind: 0.9911)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 5.2 - CHC 6.0
Simulated Avg: CWS 5.1 - CHC 6.0
Win Probability: CWS 42.5% - CHC 57.5%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +135 / CHC -135
Avg Total Runs: 11.1
Over 8.0: 67.5%
Under 8.0: 25.2%
CWS +1.5: 56.5%
CHC -1.5: 43.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.7 - CHC 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.6 - CHC 3.3
F5 Win Prob: CWS 41.2% - CHC 58.8% (Tie: 13.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +142 / CHC -142
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +150 +135 +2.5%
CHC ML -161 -135 -4.2%
CWS +1.5 -155 -130 -4.3%
CHC -1.5 +129 +130 -0.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +15.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -27.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 15.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01072
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | August 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Blake Snell Home: Tomoyuki Sugano
ERA: 5.0 ERA: 4.43
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 15.0 K/9: 5.23
BB/9: 3.0 BB/9: 2.06
FIP: 0.77 FIP: 5.37
IP: 9.0 IP: 113.7
xERA: 2.34 xERA: 6.93
xwOBA: 0.238 xwOBA: 0.392
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Blake Snell)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD COL Lg Avg
Record 74-51 50-74
R/Game 4.93 4.81 4.48
RA/Game 3.84 5.72 4.48
OPS 0.762 0.743 0.719
wOBA 0.325 0.319 0.310
ERA 3.68 5.47 4.17
FIP 3.84 4.70 4.05
WHIP 1.17 1.52 1.30
K/9 9.14 6.98 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.612 0.421 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 5.13 4.23
BP FIP 3.88 4.36 4.08
BP WHIP 1.31 1.53
BP K/9 9.85 7.33
BP Quality* 46.1 53.8 46.3
BP IP 400.3 298.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kyle Hurt (30 pitches yesterday)
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Parker Mushinski (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0305 (Temp: 1.0264 | Wind: 1.0040)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 7.3 - COL 5.6
Simulated Avg: LAD 7.3 - COL 5.6
Win Probability: LAD 62.8% - COL 37.2%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -169 / COL +169
Avg Total Runs: 12.9
Over 10.5: 63.9%
Under 10.5: 36.1%
LAD -1.5: 50.7%
COL +1.5: 49.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 4.4 - COL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 4.4 - COL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: LAD 65.9% - COL 34.1% (Tie: 11.4%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -193 / COL +193
F5 Avg Total: 7.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -260 -169 -9.4%
COL ML +239 +169 +7.7%
LAD -1.5 -174 -103 -12.8%
COL +1.5 +143 +103 +8.1%
O 10.5 -110 N/A +11.5%
U 10.5 -110 N/A -16.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 10.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01073