2026-08-18
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-18
Games: 15 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | August 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Carlos Rodón Home: Shane Baz
ERA: 3.3 ERA: 4.0
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 10.1 K/9: 7.88
BB/9: 5.05 BB/9: 3.04
FIP: 3.38 FIP: 3.29
IP: 46.3 IP: 139.3
xERA: 3.65 xERA: 4.2
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY BAL Lg Avg
Record 69-55 61-64
R/Game 4.44 4.55 4.48
RA/Game 3.76 4.77 4.48
OPS 0.716 0.720 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.311 0.310
ERA 3.26 4.24 4.17
FIP 3.55 4.01 4.05
WHIP 1.18 1.35 1.30
K/9 9.04 8.01 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.576 0.479 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.78 4.47 4.22
BP FIP 3.74 3.93 4.08
BP WHIP 1.17 1.34
BP K/9 8.43 8.65
BP Quality* 40.0 52.3 46.3
BP IP 372.7 416.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cam Sanders (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Walker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0087 (Temp: 1.0149 | Wind: 0.9939)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 4.5 - BAL 4.0
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.5 - BAL 4.0
Win Probability: NYY 54.4% - BAL 45.6%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -119 / BAL +119
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.5: 47.1%
Under 8.5: 52.9%
NYY -1.5: 38.0%
BAL +1.5: 62.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.3 - BAL 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.3 - BAL 2.2
F5 Win Prob: NYY 52.2% - BAL 47.8% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -109 / BAL +109
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -109 -119 +2.3%
BAL ML +102 +119 -3.9%
NYY -1.5 +141 +163 -3.5%
BAL +1.5 -171 -163 -1.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -5.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +0.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | August 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Keider Montero Home: Braxton Ashcraft
ERA: 3.22 ERA: 3.82
WHIP: 0.99 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 6.02 K/9: 9.87
BB/9: 2.03 BB/9: 2.1
FIP: 3.75 FIP: 3.45
IP: 128.7 IP: 141.3
xERA: 3.5 xERA: 3.34
xwOBA: 0.29 xwOBA: 0.284
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET PIT Lg Avg
Record 61-64 61-66
R/Game 4.58 5.02 4.48
RA/Game 3.90 4.81 4.48
OPS 0.728 0.743 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.322 0.310
ERA 3.56 4.33 4.17
FIP 3.73 3.77 4.05
WHIP 1.21 1.33 1.30
K/9 8.36 9.37 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.574 0.520 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.18 3.77 4.22
BP FIP 4.34 3.67 4.08
BP WHIP 1.36 1.33
BP K/9 8.28 9.69
BP Quality* 52.0 50.1 46.3
BP IP 338.0 415.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Rainey (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (44 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Isaac Mattson (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9990 (Temp: 1.0075 | Wind: 0.9915)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 4.1 - PIT 4.8
Simulated Avg: DET 4.1 - PIT 4.8
Win Probability: DET 43.2% - PIT 56.8%
Fair Moneyline: DET +131 / PIT -131
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.0: 51.4%
Under 8.0: 39.5%
DET +1.5: 59.2%
PIT -1.5: 40.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.1 - PIT 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.1 - PIT 2.3
F5 Win Prob: DET 45.0% - PIT 55.0% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +122 / PIT -122
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +131 +131 -0.1%
PIT ML -140 -131 -1.6%
DET +1.5 -175 -145 -4.4%
PIT -1.5 +144 +145 -0.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -1.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -12.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | August 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Carson Whisenhunt Home: Foster Griffin
ERA: 6.11 ERA: 3.25
WHIP: 1.71 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 7.07 K/9: 8.13
BB/9: 5.79 BB/9: 2.15
FIP: 5.31 FIP: 4.08
IP: 28.0 IP: 138.3
xERA: 5.8 xERA: 4.18
xwOBA: 0.364 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Foster Griffin)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF CLE Lg Avg
Record 51-73 60-65
R/Game 4.10 3.95 4.48
RA/Game 4.65 4.21 4.48
OPS 0.714 0.682 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.297 0.310
ERA 4.36 3.85 4.17
FIP 4.05 3.84 4.05
WHIP 1.35 1.27 1.30
K/9 7.70 9.39 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.444 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.97 3.83 4.22
BP FIP 4.50 3.68 4.08
BP WHIP 1.52 1.32
BP K/9 6.99 9.91
BP Quality* 52.6 42.7 46.3
BP IP 304.0 420.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0061 (Temp: 1.0083 | Wind: 0.9979)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 3.6 - CLE 4.7
Simulated Avg: SF 3.6 - CLE 4.7
Win Probability: SF 39.5% - CLE 60.6%
Fair Moneyline: SF +153 / CLE -153
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.0: 44.9%
Under 8.0: 45.5%
SF +1.5: 56.7%
CLE -1.5: 43.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 2.1 - CLE 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.1 - CLE 2.6
F5 Win Prob: SF 40.5% - CLE 59.5% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +147 / CLE -147
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +170 +153 +2.4%
CLE ML -182 -153 -4.0%
SF +1.5 -144 -131 -2.3%
CLE -1.5 +120 +131 -2.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -7.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -6.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | August 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Leahy Home: Andrew Abbott
ERA: 3.38 ERA: 4.13
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 8.05 K/9: 6.9
BB/9: 2.68 BB/9: 4.33
FIP: 3.53 FIP: 4.67
IP: 117.3 IP: 133.0
xERA: 5.08 xERA: 4.72
xwOBA: 0.344 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: STL (Kyle Leahy)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL CIN Lg Avg
Record 64-62 60-65
R/Game 4.40 4.07 4.48
RA/Game 4.35 4.76 4.48
OPS 0.699 0.699 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.03 4.49 4.17
FIP 3.94 4.50 4.05
WHIP 1.33 1.40 1.30
K/9 7.76 8.20 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.429 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.10 4.65 4.22
BP FIP 4.08 4.62 4.08
BP WHIP 1.34 1.44
BP K/9 7.94 8.79
BP Quality* 56.5 60.0 46.3
BP IP 478.3 466.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
UNAVAIL: Luis Gastelum (B2B, 29 pitches)
TIRED: Peter Strzelecki (46 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Brock Burke (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Pierce Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Mey (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ron Marinaccio (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0316 (Temp: 1.0132 | Wind: 1.0181)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 5.6 - CIN 4.9
Simulated Avg: STL 5.6 - CIN 4.9
Win Probability: STL 56.4% - CIN 43.6%
Fair Moneyline: STL -129 / CIN +129
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 9.0: 55.5%
Under 9.0: 36.2%
STL -1.5: 42.0%
CIN +1.5: 58.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 2.9 - CIN 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.9 - CIN 2.4
F5 Win Prob: STL 57.3% - CIN 42.7% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -134 / CIN +134
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML -114 -129 +3.1%
CIN ML +106 +129 -4.9%
STL -1.5 +135 +138 -0.5%
CIN +1.5 -163 -138 -4.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +3.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -16.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | August 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: José Soriano Home: Nick Martinez
ERA: 3.16 ERA: 2.74
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 9.02 K/9: 5.09
BB/9: 4.17 BB/9: 1.3
FIP: 3.75 FIP: 3.91
IP: 133.7 IP: 138.0
xERA: 4.54 xERA: 4.44
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR TB Lg Avg
Record 61-65 75-49
R/Game 3.90 4.56 4.48
RA/Game 4.36 4.14 4.48
OPS 0.678 0.740 0.719
wOBA 0.293 0.317 0.310
ERA 3.95 3.78 4.17
FIP 3.90 3.96 4.05
WHIP 1.31 1.15 1.30
K/9 8.81 8.25 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.450 0.545 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.86 3.78 4.22
BP FIP 4.08 4.18 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.18
BP K/9 8.05 8.61
BP Quality* 45.0 48.2 46.3
BP IP 275.0 395.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.5 - TB 4.2
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.5 - TB 4.2
Win Probability: TOR 42.4% - TB 57.6%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +136 / TB -136
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.5: 49.9%
Under 7.5: 50.1%
TOR +1.5: 60.3%
TB -1.5: 39.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 1.9 - TB 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.9 - TB 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TOR 42.6% - TB 57.4% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +135 / TB -135
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +120 +136 -3.1%
TB ML -129 -136 +1.3%
TOR +1.5 -192 -152 -5.4%
TB -1.5 +157 +152 +0.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -2.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -2.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | August 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cade Gibson Home: Zack Wheeler
ERA: 5.61 ERA: 2.89
WHIP: 1.54 WHIP: 1.0
K/9: 7.75 K/9: 10.69
BB/9: 4.28 BB/9: 2.26
FIP: 3.57 FIP: 3.06
IP: 33.7 IP: 115.3
xERA: 3.95 xERA: 2.79
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.26
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Zack Wheeler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA PHI Lg Avg
Record 64-62 68-58
R/Game 4.40 4.48 4.48
RA/Game 4.25 4.40 4.48
OPS 0.731 0.712 0.719
wOBA 0.316 0.306 0.310
ERA 3.93 4.16 4.17
FIP 3.84 3.64 4.05
WHIP 1.25 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.53 9.99 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.516 0.508 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 4.25 4.22
BP FIP 3.83 3.54 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.34
BP K/9 9.17 10.14
BP Quality* 50.3 50.9 46.3
BP IP 402.3 436.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Victor Vodnik (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: DEPLETED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Jonathan Bowlan (B2B, 34 pitches)
UNAVAIL: Jhoan Duran (B2B, 33 pitches)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Warm (85°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0344 (Temp: 1.0189 | Wind: 1.0152)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 4.0 - PHI 5.1
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.0 - PHI 5.1
Win Probability: MIA 39.1% - PHI 60.9%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +156 / PHI -156
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.0: 52.0%
Under 8.0: 38.9%
MIA +1.5: 55.7%
PHI -1.5: 44.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 1.8 - PHI 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.8 - PHI 2.7
F5 Win Prob: MIA 34.6% - PHI 65.3% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +189 / PHI -189
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +198 +156 +5.5%
PHI ML -214 -156 -7.2%
MIA +1.5 -117 -126 +1.8%
PHI -1.5 -103 +126 -6.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -0.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -13.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | August 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Merrill Kelly Home: Ranger Suarez
ERA: 5.11 ERA: 3.25
WHIP: 1.48 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 5.9 K/9: 9.17
BB/9: 3.82 BB/9: 2.58
FIP: 5.66 FIP: 2.65
IP: 125.0 IP: 108.0
xERA: 7.15 xERA: 3.6
xwOBA: 0.397 xwOBA: 0.294
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI BOS Lg Avg
Record 66-60 67-58
R/Game 4.51 4.48 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 3.75 4.48
OPS 0.712 0.724 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.13 3.50 4.17
FIP 4.23 3.51 4.05
WHIP 1.28 1.22 1.30
K/9 6.86 8.65 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.580 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.74 3.20 4.22
BP FIP 3.65 3.34 4.08
BP WHIP 1.22 1.22
BP K/9 7.51 9.27
BP Quality* 43.4 39.7 46.3
BP IP 396.7 337.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Zack Littell (86 pitches yesterday)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brayan Bello (76 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0218 (Temp: 1.0005 | Wind: 1.0214)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 3.8 - BOS 6.1
Simulated Avg: ARI 3.8 - BOS 6.0
Win Probability: ARI 29.8% - BOS 70.2%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +236 / BOS -236
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 8.0: 58.1%
Under 8.0: 33.5%
ARI +1.5: 44.4%
BOS -1.5: 55.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 2.0 - BOS 3.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.0 - BOS 3.9
F5 Win Prob: ARI 24.3% - BOS 75.7% (Tie: 12.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +312 / BOS -312
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +153 +236 -9.7%
BOS ML -165 -236 +8.0%
ARI +1.5 -149 +125 -15.4%
BOS -1.5 +123 -125 +10.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +5.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -18.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Boston Red Sox -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +123 | Edge: 10.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01074
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
Regular Season | August 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Robbie Ray Home: Zac Thornton
ERA: 3.28 ERA: 2.78
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 7.72 K/9: 5.76
BB/9: 4.44 BB/9: 2.58
FIP: 4.54 FIP: 3.83
IP: 131.7 IP: 45.3
xERA: 4.57 xERA: 4.85
xwOBA: 0.328 xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Zac Thornton)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD NYM Lg Avg
Record 67-59 57-69
R/Game 4.25 4.17 4.48
RA/Game 4.24 4.49 4.48
OPS 0.703 0.696 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.300 0.310
ERA 4.07 4.07 4.17
FIP 4.04 3.84 4.05
WHIP 1.31 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.26 9.07 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.502 0.466 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.81 4.17 4.22
BP FIP 2.97 4.29 4.08
BP WHIP 1.14 1.36
BP K/9 10.90 9.07
BP Quality* 35.8 50.1 46.3
BP IP 262.7 224.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kyle Hart (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Daniel Duarte (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nate Lavender (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9984 (Temp: 1.0044 | Wind: 0.9941)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 4.0 - NYM 3.8
Simulated Avg: SD 4.0 - NYM 3.8
Win Probability: SD 52.4% - NYM 47.6%
Fair Moneyline: SD -110 / NYM +110
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.5: 40.3%
Under 8.5: 59.7%
SD -1.5: 35.2%
NYM +1.5: 64.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.1 - NYM 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.1 - NYM 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SD 47.1% - NYM 52.9% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +112 / NYM -112
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML -109 -110 +0.3%
NYM ML +102 +110 -1.9%
SD -1.5 +143 +184 -6.0%
NYM +1.5 -174 -184 +1.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -12.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +7.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.7% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.3%
Fair ML: -148 | Kelly: 3.83%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01075
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | August 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jack Perkins Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH KC Lg Avg
Record 49-76 52-74
R/Game 4.36 4.14 4.48
RA/Game 5.78 4.99 4.48
OPS 0.721 0.705 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.303 0.310
ERA 5.49 4.78 4.17
FIP 4.82 4.56 4.05
WHIP 1.50 1.41 1.30
K/9 8.59 7.56 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.374 0.416 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.83 5.82 4.22
BP FIP 4.65 5.33 4.08
BP WHIP 1.60 1.60
BP K/9 9.22 7.64
BP Quality* 57.6 61.1 46.3
BP IP 460.0 518.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Scott Blewett (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Nate Pearson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0303 (Temp: 1.0237 | Wind: 1.0064)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.9 - KC 5.3
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.9 - KC 5.3
Win Probability: ATH 46.6% - KC 53.4%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +115 / KC -115
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 9.0: 53.2%
Under 9.0: 38.5%
ATH +1.5: 61.3%
KC -1.5: 38.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.5 - KC 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.4 - KC 2.9
F5 Win Prob: ATH 42.8% - KC 57.2% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +134 / KC -134
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML +142 +115 +5.2%
KC ML -153 -115 -7.0%
ATH +1.5 -156 -159 +0.4%
KC -1.5 +129 +159 -5.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +0.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -13.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | August 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tyler Mahle Home: Zebby Matthews
ERA: 4.64 ERA: 5.34
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 8.86 K/9: 7.62
BB/9: 3.29 BB/9: 2.97
FIP: 4.06 FIP: 4.97
IP: 106.7 IP: 91.0
xERA: 3.92 xERA: 4.69
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.332
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Tyler Mahle)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL MIN Lg Avg
Record 74-51 61-65
R/Game 4.81 4.62 4.48
RA/Game 3.89 4.98 4.48
OPS 0.728 0.725 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.314 0.310
ERA 3.64 4.65 4.17
FIP 4.01 4.18 4.05
WHIP 1.24 1.38 1.30
K/9 8.68 8.39 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.596 0.465 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.30 4.45 4.22
BP FIP 3.59 3.96 4.08
BP WHIP 1.16 1.42
BP K/9 9.27 8.61
BP Quality* 40.7 54.6 46.3
BP IP 378.7 552.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0307 (Temp: 1.0128 | Wind: 1.0177)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 5.8 - MIN 4.7
Simulated Avg: ATL 5.8 - MIN 4.7
Win Probability: ATL 59.6% - MIN 40.4%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -148 / MIN +148
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 8.5: 63.0%
Under 8.5: 37.0%
ATL -1.5: 45.6%
MIN +1.5: 54.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 3.3 - MIN 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 3.3 - MIN 2.7
F5 Win Prob: ATL 58.6% - MIN 41.4% (Tie: 13.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -142 / MIN +142
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -119 -148 +5.3%
MIN ML +111 +148 -7.0%
ATL -1.5 +128 +119 +1.8%
MIN +1.5 -155 -119 -6.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +10.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -15.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01076
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | August 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryce Miller Home: Kyle Harrison
ERA: 3.39 ERA: 2.99
WHIP: 0.99 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 8.89 K/9: 10.99
BB/9: 1.69 BB/9: 2.31
FIP: 3.83 FIP: 3.24
IP: 85.0 IP: 93.3
xERA: 2.83 xERA: 3.27
xwOBA: 0.262 xwOBA: 0.281
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Kyle Harrison)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA MIL Lg Avg
Record 59-66 77-48
R/Game 3.91 4.86 4.48
RA/Game 4.10 3.78 4.48
OPS 0.687 0.727 0.719
wOBA 0.299 0.313 0.310
ERA 3.85 3.46 4.17
FIP 3.64 3.48 4.05
WHIP 1.21 1.16 1.30
K/9 8.64 9.75 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.479 0.614 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.77 3.61 4.22
BP FIP 3.85 3.57 4.08
BP WHIP 1.32 1.27
BP K/9 9.03 8.84
BP Quality* 44.8 42.7 46.3
BP IP 367.7 423.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 47%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0026 (Temp: 1.0107 | Wind: 0.9920)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 3.2 - MIL 4.3
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.1 - MIL 4.3
Win Probability: SEA 37.1% - MIL 62.9%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +170 / MIL -170
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 7.5: 46.4%
Under 7.5: 53.6%
SEA +1.5: 55.4%
MIL -1.5: 44.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 1.6 - MIL 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 1.6 - MIL 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SEA 38.6% - MIL 61.4% (Tie: 19.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +159 / MIL -159
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML +135 +170 -5.5%
MIL ML -145 -170 +3.7%
SEA +1.5 -181 -124 -9.0%
MIL -1.5 +149 +124 +4.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -6.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +1.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | August 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jackson Kent Home: Cal Quantrill
ERA: 6.75 ERA: 3.44
WHIP: 2.0 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 13.5 K/9: 6.24
BB/9: 11.25 BB/9: 2.8
FIP: 3.85 FIP: 4.3
IP: 4.0 IP: 70.7
xERA: 5.22 xERA: 4.38
xwOBA: 0.348 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Jackson Kent)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH TEX Lg Avg
Record 60-66 61-64
R/Game 5.32 4.06 4.48
RA/Game 5.17 4.43 4.48
OPS 0.764 0.709 0.719
wOBA 0.327 0.307 0.310
ERA 4.72 4.31 4.17
FIP 4.61 4.04 4.05
WHIP 1.39 1.30 1.30
K/9 7.72 8.59 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.512 0.460 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.88 4.50 4.22
BP FIP 5.09 4.30 4.08
BP WHIP 1.60 1.37
BP K/9 8.73 8.02
BP Quality* 58.4 51.4 46.3
BP IP 417.7 404.0
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 99°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (99°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0143 (Temp: 1.0408 | Wind: 0.9745)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 5.8 - TEX 5.5
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.8 - TEX 5.5
Win Probability: WSH 52.0% - TEX 48.0%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -108 / TEX +108
Avg Total Runs: 11.3
Over 8.0: 68.8%
Under 8.0: 24.1%
WSH +1.5: 65.6%
TEX -1.5: 34.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 3.1 - TEX 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 3.1 - TEX 3.0
F5 Win Prob: WSH 51.6% - TEX 48.4% (Tie: 13.8%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -107 / TEX +107
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +138 -108 +10.0%
TEX ML -148 +108 -11.7%
WSH +1.5 -162 -191 +3.8%
TEX -1.5 +134 +191 -8.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +16.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -28.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 16.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01077
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | August 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Kevin Gausman
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS CHC Lg Avg
Record 65-59 73-53
R/Game 4.83 5.17 4.48
RA/Game 4.47 4.37 4.48
OPS 0.729 0.757 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.327 0.310
ERA 4.11 4.16 4.17
FIP 4.05 4.58 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.49 7.75 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.536 0.577 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.04 4.38 4.22
BP FIP 4.22 4.51 4.08
BP WHIP 1.34 1.35
BP K/9 8.14 8.49
BP Quality* 51.0 53.2 46.3
BP IP 329.7 497.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Hagen Smith (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Jordan Hicks (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 17%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9841 (Temp: 1.0041 | Wind: 0.9802)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 5.0 - CHC 5.6
Simulated Avg: CWS 5.0 - CHC 5.6
Win Probability: CWS 44.1% - CHC 55.9%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +127 / CHC -127
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 9.0: 55.9%
Under 9.0: 36.2%
CWS +1.5: 58.7%
CHC -1.5: 41.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.5 - CHC 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.5 - CHC 3.0
F5 Win Prob: CWS 43.3% - CHC 56.7% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +131 / CHC -131
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +157 +127 +5.2%
CHC ML -168 -127 -6.8%
CWS +1.5 -144 -142 -0.3%
CHC -1.5 +119 +142 -4.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +3.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -16.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | August 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: George Klassen Home: Cristian Javier
ERA: 5.52 ERA: 6.68
WHIP: 2.11 WHIP: 1.7
K/9: 8.59 K/9: 6.96
BB/9: 9.2 BB/9: 4.45
FIP: 6.03 FIP: 5.45
IP: 14.7 IP: 32.3
xERA: 6.59 xERA: 5.91
xwOBA: 0.384 xwOBA: 0.367
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Cristian Javier)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA HOU Lg Avg
Record 49-76 63-62
R/Game 4.06 4.61 4.48
RA/Game 4.74 4.85 4.48
OPS 0.684 0.732 0.719
wOBA 0.297 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.40 4.58 4.17
FIP 4.08 4.49 4.05
WHIP 1.35 1.36 1.30
K/9 9.17 8.84 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.429 0.477 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.62 4.16 4.22
BP FIP 4.33 4.35 4.08
BP WHIP 1.39 1.30
BP K/9 8.99 9.10
BP Quality* 49.0 46.7 46.3
BP IP 313.3 435.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9950 (Temp: 1.0210 | Wind: 0.9745)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 5.0 - HOU 5.2
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.9 - HOU 5.2
Win Probability: LAA 47.0% - HOU 53.0%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +113 / HOU -113
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 9.0: 52.6%
Under 9.0: 38.9%
LAA +1.5: 62.0%
HOU -1.5: 38.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 3.1 - HOU 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 3.1 - HOU 3.0
F5 Win Prob: LAA 52.3% - HOU 47.7% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA -109 / HOU +109
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +151 +113 +7.2%
HOU ML -162 -113 -8.9%
LAA +1.5 -143 -163 +3.1%
HOU -1.5 +119 +163 -7.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +0.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -13.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | August 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Eric Lauer Home: Ryan Feltner
ERA: 4.67 ERA: 5.59
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.49
K/9: 5.77 K/9: 6.31
BB/9: 2.84 BB/9: 3.72
FIP: 5.67 FIP: 5.63
IP: 98.3 IP: 87.0
xERA: 4.72 xERA: 5.4
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.353
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD COL Lg Avg
Record 75-51 50-75
R/Game 4.98 4.81 4.48
RA/Game 3.85 5.76 4.48
OPS 0.765 0.741 0.719
wOBA 0.326 0.318 0.310
ERA 3.69 5.51 4.17
FIP 3.83 4.73 4.05
WHIP 1.16 1.52 1.30
K/9 9.12 6.95 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.615 0.418 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.15 5.18 4.22
BP FIP 3.94 4.40 4.08
BP WHIP 1.31 1.54
BP K/9 9.68 7.26
BP Quality* 46.4 57.2 46.3
BP IP 394.3 302.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: TJ Shook (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Parker Mushinski (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0324 (Temp: 1.0237 | Wind: 1.0085)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 7.5 - COL 6.6
Simulated Avg: LAD 7.5 - COL 6.6
Win Probability: LAD 56.1% - COL 43.9%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -128 / COL +128
Avg Total Runs: 14.1
Over 11.5: 63.9%
Under 11.5: 36.1%
LAD -1.5: 44.7%
COL +1.5: 55.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 4.3 - COL 3.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 4.3 - COL 3.9
F5 Win Prob: LAD 54.5% - COL 45.5% (Tie: 11.2%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -120 / COL +120
F5 Avg Total: 8.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -185 -128 -8.9%
COL ML +172 +128 +7.2%
LAD -1.5 -131 +124 -12.0%
COL +1.5 +108 -124 +7.2%
O 11.5 -110 N/A +11.5%
U 11.5 -110 N/A -16.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
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[HMC] Over 11.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01078